KARACHI: Concerns are at peak over the health of Pakistan’s economy as foreign reserves run out, inflation stands at decades-high levels and industrial growth slows down, with experts and industry leaders raising alarm and calling on the government to take decisive action, particularly on a stalled IMF bailout plan.
The biggest worries center around Pakistan’s ability to pay for imports such as energy and food and to meet sovereign debt obligations abroad. Right now, foreign exchange reserves with the central bank stand at just $4.6 billion, barely enough to cover a month’s imports, compelling the government to restrict the import of goods, including industrial raw materials, to stop dollar outflows.
Before devastating floods last year, an estimated $33.5 billion was needed to fulfil external financing needs for the 2022-23 financial year, according to the central bank, to be arranged through the daunting target of almost halving the current account deficit and receiving debt rollovers from friendly countries.
But in the aftermath of the floods, exports have slumped and imports have grown to make up for essential commodities lost in the flooding of millions of hectares of farmland.
Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee has weakened 20 percent since the start of the year and the decline in the currency is pushing up the cost of imports, borrowing and debt servicing, and in turn will further exacerbate inflation running already at a multi-decade high.
“The situation is alarming,” Tariq Yousuf, President of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), told Arab News. “More than 7,500 containers [of imports] are stuck at ports and our industries are facing an acute shortage of raw materials, bringing them almost to the verge of collapse.”
Last year, the cash-strapped country imposed a ban on the import of luxury goods to avoid a balance of payment crisis but lifted some of the restrictions after pressure from the industrial sector.
Experts warn that a dire dollar crunch in Pakistan may further hurt the import of essential items in the coming months and lead to a shortage of several food items. The fast-depleting forex stockpile has currently left banks refusing to issue new letters of credit (LCs) for importers, hitting an economy already squeezed by soaring inflation and lackluster growth. The central bank has also restricted overseas payments and halved the amount of foreign currency that a person can carry overseas to $5,000.
Qaiser Ahmed Sheikh, chairman of the standing committee of the National Assembly (NA) on Finance and Revenue, told Arab News Pakistan was in a “dire situation.”
“There are problems opening LCs, approved by the State Bank of Pakistan, affecting raw material imports.”
Without an LC as a financial guarantee to foreign exporters, import clearances rarely go through.
Sheikh said thousands of import containers were stuck at various ports, which was affecting the manufacturing industry and fueling a fear of industrial closure and further inflation hikes.
The inflation rate in Pakistan is already worryingly high, recorded at 24.5 percent in December 2022, double the figure from around 12 percent in December 2021.
“Both industrialists and the masses are concerned that commodity prices are rising on a daily basis,” Sheikh said. “The inflation will increase further if the State Bank of Pakistan does not allow new LCs opening and the clearance of older LC contracts.”
The situation is particularly precarious for the country’s pharmaceutical industry, currently left with only a few days of stock.
“Pharmaceutical industries keep inventory for three months, but since November 2022 raw material arrival has stopped due to the LCs issue,” Dr. Sheikh Kaiser Waheed, spokesman of the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers’ Association (PPMA), told Arab News.
“Due to resource constraints, the drugs for diabetes, cardiac patients, cancer patients etc, are in short supply,” he said. “This shortage is also partly due to excessive buying by patients as precautionary measures after reports of the import situation came out.”
The economic strain has caused a number of textile units, car assemblers, and other industries to suspend or scale down their operations while fears of petroleum product shortage from next month loom, according to industrialists and government sources.
In a meeting with industrialists at the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), the central bank governor this week announced that a joint committee would be set up with the FPCCI to resolve the “huge backlog in LCs,” according to a statement from the Chamber.
Pakistani senior economists interviewed by Arab News said the current economic situation was a result of the government’s “indecisiveness” with regards to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
A 9th IMF review to clear the release of the next tranche of funds to Pakistan has been pending since September.
“The economic situation of Pakistan is alarming … but the indecisiveness of government officials further compounds the situation,” Dr. Ashfaque Hassan Khan, a senior economist, said.
Current Minister of Finance Ishaq Dar and Minister of State for Finance, Aisha Ghaus Pasha, did not respond to requests for comment for this story.
“The only options before the government now are to either accept the IMF program (with all its conditions) or leave it,” Khan added. “Pakistan is now in a catch-22 position. The government ahead of the general elections would be reluctant to burn its political capital (by imposing more taxes and raising the rate of inflation).”
There is also talk of a mini-budget being announced to meet IMF conditions after its 9th review of the $7 billion IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
“The government is negotiating with the IMF on an energy tariff increase and setting a market based exchange rate of the US dollar, which will increase inflation and there are discussions on the interest rate hike also,” Sheikh, the chairman of the NA standing committee, said.
“A mini-budget will be announced, as without it the IMF’s conditionalities cannot be fulfilled”.
The chairman denied having knowledge of the exact measures and proposed date of the mini-budget, amid speculation about a new petroleum levy and more taxes on imported and local vehicles.
“Hopefully ‘terms of engagement’ with the IMF finalized by the government of Pakistan are solid enough to finalize the 9th review,” Dr. Khaqan Najeeb, former adviser to the finance ministry, said.
“To get out of the present economic crisis, Pakistan must work on getting the IMF back, have a market determined exchange rate, rollover, reprofiling or restructuring of debt and effective social protection,” Dr. Sajid Amin, a senior economist, said.
With Pakistan’s economy in a tailspin, experts call for end to ‘indecisiveness’ on IMF program
https://arab.news/2s7cj
With Pakistan’s economy in a tailspin, experts call for end to ‘indecisiveness’ on IMF program
- More than 7,500 containers stuck at Pakistani ports create acute deficit of industrial, pharmaceutical raw materials
- Government may announce mini-budget to meet demands of the International Monetary Fund and break import deadlock
Pakistan arrests woman among two more human smugglers after deadly Greek shipwreck
- The boat capsize near the Greek island of Gavdos killed at least five Pakistani nationals this month
- The arrests come days after Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif ordered a crackdown on human smugglers
ISLAMABAD: Pakistani authorities have arrested a woman among two more human smugglers after a recent boat tragedy off the coast of Greece that killed at least five Pakistanis, the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) said on Thursday, an intensified crackdown on human smuggling networks.
The arrests come in the wake of the boat capsize this month near the Greek island of Gavdos, which highlighted the perilous journeys many migrants undertake, often driven by conflicts in the Middle East. In the case of Pakistani nationals, economic challenges push many young individuals to attempt dangerous crossings to Europe in search of better financial prospects.
The issue of illegal immigration to Europe came under greater scrutiny in the South Asian country last year when hundreds of migrants, including 262 Pakistanis, who were en route to Greece from Libya, drowned after an overcrowded vessel capsized off the southwestern Greek coastal town of Pylos.
On Thursday, the FIA said it had apprehended suspects, Isha Fatima and Abdullah Shehzad, who were involved in both incidents, in Gujranwala city of Pakistan’s most populous Punjab province, while the agency was conducting raids for the arrest of other human smugglers.
“Female human trafficker Isha Fatima is involved in the Greek boat accident, while proclaimed offender Abdullah Shahzad is involved in the Libya boat accident that occurred in 2023,” it said in a statement.
“Isha Fatima, with the connivance of other accomplices, trafficked one of the Pakistanis from Libya to Greece via boat. The Pakistani national was rescued in the Greek boat accident [this month].”
The woman suspect had received Rs4.5 million ($16,189) from the survivor, according to the investigation agency. The other suspect, Shehzad, had been involved in the 2023 incident that killed more than 250 Pakistani nationals. He had taken Rs2.9 million ($10,433) from each victim for sending them abroad.
The development came days after the FIA said it had apprehended two suspects in Punjab’s Gujranwala and Gujrat, who were involved in this month’s boat capsize.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif this month called for enhanced cooperation with international agencies, seeking swift action against human trafficking networks. He also instructed the FIA to compile a detailed report on migration-related incidents over the past year and implement an Integrated Border Management System (IBMS) to monitor and prevent illegal movement.
“A crackdown on elements involved in the Greek boat tragedy is underway. All resources are being utilized to arrest the suspects,” Abdul Qadir Qamar, FIA Gujranwala zone director, said on Thursday.
“In the light of solid evidence, the accused will be handed down stern punishment.”
Pakistan vows to extend ‘practical support’ to rehabilitate Palestinian educational institutions
- At least 625,000 children have been denied entire year of school due to Israel’s war on Gaza, says UNICEF
- Pakistan and COMSTECH have partnered to provide fully funded scholarships for hundreds of Palestinians
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Education Minister Dr. Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui on Thursday vowed to extend “practical support” to rehabilitate educational institutions in Palestine, the OIC’s Standing Committee on Scientific and Technological Cooperation (COMSTECH) said.
Israel’s military campaigns in Gaza since Oct. 7, 2023, have killed over 44,000 Palestinians. Israel’s bombardment has dealt a heavy setback for education in the area, and according to a report by UNICEF, 625,000 children have been denied an entire school year in Gaza. With the conflict still ongoing, they face the high risk of a second year without education.
COMSTECH, in collaboration with the Association of Private Sector Universities of Pakistan (APSUP), initiated a program in 2021 offering 500 fully funded scholarships and fellowships to Palestinian students. This number was increased to 5,000 scholarships in 2023. Many Palestinian students have already arrived in Pakistan under this program and are pursuing full-degree programs.
Siddiqui, along with COMSTECH Coordinator General Dr. Muhammad Iqbal Choudhary, visited the Palestinian embassy in Islamabad to discuss matters related to education with Palestinian Ambassador Dr. Zuhair Zaid.
“He [Siddiqui] assured that Pakistan is committed to extending practical support for the rehabilitation of educational institutions in Palestine,” a press release by COMSTECH said.
The Pakistani minister reiterated his government and people’s steadfast support for Palestine, COMSTECH said.
“Sharing insights from his recent visit to Oman, he revealed discussions with educational ministers from other countries about joint actions to assist Palestine in the education sector,” it added.
Siddiqui said he has proposed convening an extraordinary meeting of the education ministers from OIC member countries in Islamabad to devise a “comprehensive long-term plan for supporting Palestine.”
Zaid expressed thanked the government, COMSTECH and people of Pakistan, the OIC body said.
“He acknowledged their steadfast support, emphasizing that these efforts will never be forgotten by the Palestinian people,” the statement said.
Pakistan PM visits Azerbaijan embassy, condoles loss of lives in Kazakhstan plane crash
- At least 38 people were killed when Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan’s Aktau city
- Shehbaz Sharif says ties between Pakistan and Azerbaijan rooted in shared religious and cultural values
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif visited Azerbaijan’s embassy in Islamabad on Thursday to condole over the loss of lives in the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan, the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) said.
At least 38 people were killed when an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane with 67 people on board crashed near the Kazakhstan city of Aktau on Wednesday. The Embraer 190 aircraft was en route from the Azerbaijani capital of Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus.
The Pakistani prime minister visited the Azerbaijan embassy in Islamabad where he met Khazar Farhadov to offer his condolences over the incident.
“In this hour of grief, the government of Pakistan and the people of Pakistan express their complete solidarity with the brothers and sisters of Azerbaijan,” Sharif was quoted as saying by the PMO.
The Pakistani prime minister prayed for the speedy recovery of all injured in the blast.
“Azerbaijan and Pakistan have strong relations of brotherhood based on shared religious and cultural values,” Sharif said.
Pakistan has eyed closer economic cooperation with Central Asian states such as Azerbaijan in recent months as the South Asian nation faces an economic crisis.
During Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev’s two-day visit to Pakistan in July, both nations agreed to enhance the volume of bilateral trade to $2 billion, vowing to strengthen ties and increase cooperation in mutually beneficial economic projects.
They also signed the Pakistan-Azerbaijan Preferential Trade Agreement to boost economic cooperation through the reduction of tariffs on goods like Pakistani sports equipment, leather, and pharmaceuticals as well as Azerbaijani oil and gas products.
Pakistan reports two new polio cases as 2024 tally surges to 67
- Pakistan detects poliovirus cases from Kashmore in southern Sindh and Tank in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces
- Efforts to eradicate polio have been undermined by misinformation, opposition from religious hard-liners
KARACHI: Pakistan reported two new polio cases on Thursday, pushing this year’s tally of the infection to 67, the country’s polio eradication program said amid Islamabad’s struggle to contain the spread of the disease.
Pakistan, along with neighboring Afghanistan, remains the last polio-endemic country in the world. The nation’s polio eradication campaign has faced serious problems with a spike in reported cases this year that have prompted officials to review their approach to stopping the crippling disease.
The Regional Reference Laboratory for Polio Eradication at Pakistan’s National Institute of Health confirmed that two wild poliovirus type 1 cases, one each from Tank in northwestern Pakistan and Kashmore in Sindh were reported on Thursday.
“Pakistan is responding to the resurgence of WPV1 this year with 67 cases reported so far,” the Polio Eradication Programme said. “Of these, 27 are from Balochistan, 19 from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 19 from Sindh, and one each from Punjab and Islamabad.”
It said that this was the fourth case reported from Tank and second from Kashmore this year.
Pakistani authorities last week conducted a large-scale sub-national polio vaccination campaign in Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Islamabad, vaccinating over 42 million children.
The second phase of the campaign is scheduled to begin on Dec. 30, covering Balochistan province.
Poliovirus, which can cause crippling paralysis particularly in young children, is incurable and remains a threat to human health as long as it has not been eradicated. Immunization campaigns have succeeded in most countries and have come close in Pakistan, but persistent problems remain.
In the early 1990s, Pakistan reported around 20,000 cases annually but in 2018 the number dropped to eight cases. Six cases were reported in 2023 and only one in 2021.
Pakistan’s polio program began in 1994 but efforts to eradicate the virus have since been undermined by vaccine misinformation and opposition from some religious hard-liners, who say immunization is a foreign ploy to sterilize Muslim children or a cover for Western spies. Militant groups also frequently attack and kill members of polio vaccine teams.
UN calls for investigation into Pakistan’s alleged air strikes on Afghanistan border
- UN mission in Afghanistan says dozens of civilians killed in airstrikes this week by Pakistan in Paktika province
- Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring militant fighters, allowing them to strike on Pakistani soil with impunity
KABUL: The UN mission to Afghanistan on Thursday called for an investigation into Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan, in which the Taliban government said 46 people were killed, including civilians.
The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) said it had “received credible reports that dozens of civilians, including women and children, were killed in airstrikes by Pakistan’s military forces in Paktika province, Afghanistan, on 24 December.”
“International law obliges military forces to take necessary precautions to prevent civilian harm,” the agency said in a statement, adding an “investigation is needed to ensure accountability.”
The Taliban government said the 46 deceased were mainly women and children, with another six wounded, mostly children.
An AFP journalist saw several wounded children in a hospital in the provincial capital Sharan, including one receiving an IV and another with a bandaged head.
A Pakistan security official told AFP on Wednesday the bombardment had targeted “terrorist hideouts” and killed at least 20 militants, saying claims that “civilians are being harmed are baseless and misleading.”
On a press trip to the area organized by Taliban authorities, AFP journalists saw four mud brick buildings reduced to rubble in three sites around 20-30 kilometers (10-20 miles) from the Pakistan border.
AFP spoke to multiple residents who said the strikes hit in the late evening, breaking doors and windows in villages and destroying homes and an Islamic school.
Several residents reported pulling bodies from the rubble after strikes targeted houses, killing multiple members of the same families.
Afghanistan’s Minister of Borders and Tribal Affairs Noorullah Noori called the attack “a brutal, arrogant invasion.”
“This is unacceptable and won’t be left unanswered,” he said during the site visit.
Pakistani foreign ministry spokesperson Mumtaz Zahra Baloch did not confirm the strikes but told a media briefing on Thursday: “Our security personnel conduct operations in border areas to protect Pakistani from terror groups, including TTP.”
She was referring to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) — Pakistan’s homegrown Taliban group which shares a common ideology with its Afghan counterpart.
The TTP last week claimed a raid on an army outpost near the border with Afghanistan in which Pakistan said 16 soldiers were killed.
Baloch said Pakistan prioritized dialogue with Afghanistan, and that Islamabad’s special envoy, Sadiq Khan, was in Kabul meeting with officials where “matters of security” and “terror groups including TTP” were discussed.
The strikes were the latest spike in hostilities on the frontier between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with border tensions between the two countries escalating since the Taliban government seized power in 2021.
Islamabad has accused Kabul’s authorities of harboring militant fighters, allowing them to strike on Pakistani soil with impunity — allegations Kabul denies.
