KARACHI: Concerns are at peak over the health of Pakistan’s economy as foreign reserves run out, inflation stands at decades-high levels and industrial growth slows down, with experts and industry leaders raising alarm and calling on the government to take decisive action, particularly on a stalled IMF bailout plan.
The biggest worries center around Pakistan’s ability to pay for imports such as energy and food and to meet sovereign debt obligations abroad. Right now, foreign exchange reserves with the central bank stand at just $4.6 billion, barely enough to cover a month’s imports, compelling the government to restrict the import of goods, including industrial raw materials, to stop dollar outflows.
Before devastating floods last year, an estimated $33.5 billion was needed to fulfil external financing needs for the 2022-23 financial year, according to the central bank, to be arranged through the daunting target of almost halving the current account deficit and receiving debt rollovers from friendly countries.
But in the aftermath of the floods, exports have slumped and imports have grown to make up for essential commodities lost in the flooding of millions of hectares of farmland.
Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee has weakened 20 percent since the start of the year and the decline in the currency is pushing up the cost of imports, borrowing and debt servicing, and in turn will further exacerbate inflation running already at a multi-decade high.
“The situation is alarming,” Tariq Yousuf, President of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), told Arab News. “More than 7,500 containers [of imports] are stuck at ports and our industries are facing an acute shortage of raw materials, bringing them almost to the verge of collapse.”
Last year, the cash-strapped country imposed a ban on the import of luxury goods to avoid a balance of payment crisis but lifted some of the restrictions after pressure from the industrial sector.
Experts warn that a dire dollar crunch in Pakistan may further hurt the import of essential items in the coming months and lead to a shortage of several food items. The fast-depleting forex stockpile has currently left banks refusing to issue new letters of credit (LCs) for importers, hitting an economy already squeezed by soaring inflation and lackluster growth. The central bank has also restricted overseas payments and halved the amount of foreign currency that a person can carry overseas to $5,000.
Qaiser Ahmed Sheikh, chairman of the standing committee of the National Assembly (NA) on Finance and Revenue, told Arab News Pakistan was in a “dire situation.”
“There are problems opening LCs, approved by the State Bank of Pakistan, affecting raw material imports.”
Without an LC as a financial guarantee to foreign exporters, import clearances rarely go through.
Sheikh said thousands of import containers were stuck at various ports, which was affecting the manufacturing industry and fueling a fear of industrial closure and further inflation hikes.
The inflation rate in Pakistan is already worryingly high, recorded at 24.5 percent in December 2022, double the figure from around 12 percent in December 2021.
“Both industrialists and the masses are concerned that commodity prices are rising on a daily basis,” Sheikh said. “The inflation will increase further if the State Bank of Pakistan does not allow new LCs opening and the clearance of older LC contracts.”
The situation is particularly precarious for the country’s pharmaceutical industry, currently left with only a few days of stock.
“Pharmaceutical industries keep inventory for three months, but since November 2022 raw material arrival has stopped due to the LCs issue,” Dr. Sheikh Kaiser Waheed, spokesman of the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers’ Association (PPMA), told Arab News.
“Due to resource constraints, the drugs for diabetes, cardiac patients, cancer patients etc, are in short supply,” he said. “This shortage is also partly due to excessive buying by patients as precautionary measures after reports of the import situation came out.”
The economic strain has caused a number of textile units, car assemblers, and other industries to suspend or scale down their operations while fears of petroleum product shortage from next month loom, according to industrialists and government sources.
In a meeting with industrialists at the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), the central bank governor this week announced that a joint committee would be set up with the FPCCI to resolve the “huge backlog in LCs,” according to a statement from the Chamber.
Pakistani senior economists interviewed by Arab News said the current economic situation was a result of the government’s “indecisiveness” with regards to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
A 9th IMF review to clear the release of the next tranche of funds to Pakistan has been pending since September.
“The economic situation of Pakistan is alarming … but the indecisiveness of government officials further compounds the situation,” Dr. Ashfaque Hassan Khan, a senior economist, said.
Current Minister of Finance Ishaq Dar and Minister of State for Finance, Aisha Ghaus Pasha, did not respond to requests for comment for this story.
“The only options before the government now are to either accept the IMF program (with all its conditions) or leave it,” Khan added. “Pakistan is now in a catch-22 position. The government ahead of the general elections would be reluctant to burn its political capital (by imposing more taxes and raising the rate of inflation).”
There is also talk of a mini-budget being announced to meet IMF conditions after its 9th review of the $7 billion IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
“The government is negotiating with the IMF on an energy tariff increase and setting a market based exchange rate of the US dollar, which will increase inflation and there are discussions on the interest rate hike also,” Sheikh, the chairman of the NA standing committee, said.
“A mini-budget will be announced, as without it the IMF’s conditionalities cannot be fulfilled”.
The chairman denied having knowledge of the exact measures and proposed date of the mini-budget, amid speculation about a new petroleum levy and more taxes on imported and local vehicles.
“Hopefully ‘terms of engagement’ with the IMF finalized by the government of Pakistan are solid enough to finalize the 9th review,” Dr. Khaqan Najeeb, former adviser to the finance ministry, said.
“To get out of the present economic crisis, Pakistan must work on getting the IMF back, have a market determined exchange rate, rollover, reprofiling or restructuring of debt and effective social protection,” Dr. Sajid Amin, a senior economist, said.
With Pakistan’s economy in a tailspin, experts call for end to ‘indecisiveness’ on IMF program
https://arab.news/2s7cj
With Pakistan’s economy in a tailspin, experts call for end to ‘indecisiveness’ on IMF program
- More than 7,500 containers stuck at Pakistani ports create acute deficit of industrial, pharmaceutical raw materials
- Government may announce mini-budget to meet demands of the International Monetary Fund and break import deadlock
Pakistan Senate chairman leaves for Saudi Arabia to strengthen bilateral ties
- Yousuf Raza Gillani to meet Saudi Shoura Council chairman, governors of Riyadh and Madinah during visit
- Pakistan and Saudi Arabia closely cooperate in defense, military, economy, trade and other vital sectors
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Senate Chairman Yousuf Raza Gillani left for a five-day trip to Saudi Arabia on Monday with his visit aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and promoting institutional cooperation between Islamabad and Riyadh, the Senate Secretariat said.
The invitation to Gillani and his delegation was extended by Saudi Arabia’s Shoura Council, the secretariat said. The Majlis Al-Shoura, or Consultative Council, is a legislative body that advises the Saudi king on issues that are important to Saudi Arabia.
“Chairman Senate Syed Yousuf Raza Gillani has left for a five-day trip to Saudi Arabia with a delegation,” the Senate Secretariat said in a statement.
“The aim of the visit is to further promote bilateral relations and institutional cooperation.”
The Pakistani delegation will hold high-level meetings with the Shoura Council chairman, governors of Madinah and Riyadh, and conduct other high-level meetings, it said.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia enjoy cordial relations that have resulted in close cooperation in defense, military, economic and other sectors.
Last month, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed investment agreements worth $2.8 billion while Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has pledged to expedite a $5 billion investment portfolio for Islamabad.
Saudi Arabia has frequently bailed Pakistan out of its economic crisis over the years, coming to its aid with loan rollovers and providing oil on deferred payments to Islamabad.
Sri Lankan artist immortalizes Pakistan’s Olympic hero Arshad Nadeem with special painting
- Arshad Nadeem won Pakistan its first Olympic gold medal since 1992 in August with record-breaking javelin throw
- Titled “The Throw,” Mueen Saheed’s painting features an abstract portrayal of Nadeem and his mother
ISLAMABAD: Sri Lankan artist Mueen Saheed has paid tribute to Pakistani Olympian Arshad Nadeem by dedicating a “special painting” to the sportsman, state-run media recently reported, as a mark of respect for bagging the gold medal for his country earlier this year.
Nadeem made history at the Paris Olympics in August by setting a new record for the longest javelin throw in the global competition, winning Pakistan its first gold medal since 1992 with a record-breaking 92.97m javelin throw.
Saheed last week concluded an art cultural tour in Pakistan where he showcased his artwork at three major exhibitions in Lahore and Islamabad.
“Renowned Sri Lankan artist, Mueen Saheed made a memorable addition to his tour of Pakistan by presenting a special painting dedicated to Arshad Nadeem, Pakistan’s celebrated Olympic gold medalist, to the Pakistan National Council of the Arts (PNCA),” the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) reported on Sunday.
The painting, now a part of the PNCA’s prestigious permanent collection, pays homage to Nadeem’s remarkable achievements and his role in uniting fans across borders.
Titled “The Throw,” the painting features an abstract portrayal of Nadeem and his mother, veiled behind Saheed’s distinctive brushstrokes and use of small squares, the APP said.
The presentation ceremony at the PNCA in Islamabad, part of the artist’s “Passages of Light” exhibition, was attended by key figures in the arts and culture sector, including PNCA Director General Muhammad Ayoub Jamali and Information Minister Attaullah Tarar.
“Arshad Nadeem’s story is one of resilience and humility,” Saheed explained. “His victory at the Olympics and the moments of sportsmanship with his Indian counterpart, Neeraj Chopra, were powerful examples of unity in competition.”
Tarar praised Saheed’s gesture, noting the significance of honoring a national hero whose journey resonates beyond sports, inspiring audiences from Pakistan, India, and around the world, the state-run media said.
Belarus President Lukashenko to arrive in Pakistan today amid Islamabad protest
- Thousands of ex-PM Khan supporters expected to arrive in Pakistan’s capital for anti-government protest
- Pakistan, Belarus expected to sign several agreements during Aleksandr Lukashenko’s three-day visit to Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko is scheduled to arrive in Pakistan on a three-day visit today, Monday, as thousands of supporters of former prime minister Imran Khan march toward the capital for an anti-government march.
Pakistan’s state media said last week that Lukashenko was expected to hold talks with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on bilateral cooperation while several agreements would be signed between the two countries.
His visit comes at a time when thousands of supporters of jailed ex-PM Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party are headed toward Islamabad for a protest “long march.” Khan’s party is demanding his release from prison, independence of the judiciary and protesting against alleged rigging in the February national elections.
“President of the Republic of Belarus Aleksandr Lukashenko will undertake three-day visit to Pakistan from today,” state broadcaster Radio Pakistan reported.
As a 68-member delegation from Belarus arrived in Pakistan’s capital on Sunday ahead of Lukashenko’s visit, Pakistan’s government described the PTI’s protest as a “deliberate conspiracy” against the country’s “honor,” vowing stern action against any persons found violating the law.
The government last week took measures to enhance security in Islamabad, sealing off key highways and motorways leading to the capital from surrounding areas with shipping containers.
Security in the capital has also been beefed up with the deployment of paramilitary forces and police while the government has suspended Internet services in areas deemed sensitive for security.
PTI CARAVAN
Meanwhile, the PTI convoy led by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur left Peshawar around 1:30 p.m. on Sunday and reached Swabi in the evening, where it was joined by protesters from across the province.
The caravan then proceeded to Ghazi Barotha near Punjab, where it encountered blockades and barriers.
Hajji Fazal Elahi, a PTI provincial lawmaker, told Arab News the party supporters were determined to reach D-Chowk, the protest venue in Islamabad.
“We will go to D-Chowk and cross all the barriers, even if it takes a day or two,” he said.
As per the latest updates, the PTI’s caravan has crossed Ghazi Barotha and reached at the Hazara Interchange.
Meanwhile, sporadic clashes erupted between law enforcers and Khan supporters near Islamabad on Sunday night after they tried to enter the capital from the nearby Rawalpindi city.
Speaking to Arab News, Sayed Zulfikar Bukhari, a senior PTI leader and close aide to Khan, expressed dismay at the government’s response, saying his party only wanted to hold a peaceful protest.
“There is a heavy crackdown in Rawalpindi, as they [the law enforcement officials] have shot rubber bullets, teargas and also picked up people,” he said on Sunday.
Pakistan says protests cost $684 million daily as Imran Khan’s supporters march on Islamabad
- Finance Ministry’s estimates exclude losses from IT, telecom sectors and provincial economies
- Imran Khan has called for protests demanding his release, with demonstrations also held abroad
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Ministry of Finance has prepared a report estimating economic losses of Rs190 billion ($684 million) per day due to political protests, Federal Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said on Sunday, as supporters of jailed former prime minister Imran Khan march toward Islamabad to demand his release.
The protest, led by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, has effectively cut off the federal capital from other cities, with authorities using shipping containers to seal all entry and exit points and announcing the closure of all educational institutions in Islamabad.
The disruption has also impacted small businesses, with slow Internet and telecom services further compounding the economic losses.
“Protests result in a daily loss of Rs190 billion,” the finance minister said in a statement circulated by his office, warning of repercussions for the national economy.
According to the ministry’s report, the GDP suffers a daily loss of Rs144 billion, accounting for the largest share of the economic impact. Additionally, a decline in exports results in a daily loss of Rs26 billion, while disruptions in foreign direct investment contribute Rs3 billion to the daily losses.
Losses in the IT and telecom sectors are significant but separate from these figures.
“The federal government’s daily loss is Rs190 billion, while provincial losses are even higher,” Aurangzeb noted, without providing detailed provincial breakdowns.
Khan, who has been incarcerated for over a year on charges he claims are politically motivated, has urged his followers to rally both in Pakistan and abroad.
PTI supporters in countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Sweden, Spain and Japan have also organized demonstrations, calling for the former prime minister’s release.
As tensions persist, the government remains firm in its resolve to maintain public order, with Finance Minister Aurangzeb stressing that the ongoing unrest is severely undermining the country’s economic recovery efforts.
Pakistan urges climate justice at COP29, highlights gaps in global commitments
- It highlights mismatch between developed nations’ pledges and developing countries’ needs
- Romina Alam says Pakistan is forced into debt to manage the fallout of climate disasters
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s top climate change official on Sunday voiced concern over the widening gap between global climate commitments and the needs of vulnerable nations as COP29 ended in Azerbaijan.
Addressing the closing plenary, Romina Khurshid Alam, Prime Minister’s Coordinator on Climate Change, emphasized Pakistan’s acute vulnerability to phenomenon, citing devastating floods, glacial melt, extreme heatwaves and droughts that have affected millions and strained the country’s resources.
“Climate justice is not charity; it is a moral obligation,” she said during her statement, criticizing the mismatch between developed nations’ pledges and the requirements of developing countries to implement their climate plans.
The Pakistani official welcomed the adoption of the Baku Climate Unity Pact, though she expressed “mixed feelings” about the outcomes.
“We note critical gaps in the decisions adopted here,” she said. “Global solidarity is important, but the goals set by developed countries fall short of addressing the needs of developing nations to implement their NDCs [Nationally Determined Contributions] and National Adaptation Plans.”
Alam highlighted the inequity in the international climate finance system, pointing out that countries like Pakistan are being forced into debt to manage the fallout of climate disasters.
“The climate crisis is turning into a debt crisis because the means of implementation are not clear,” she added.
The Pakistani official urged all parties to return to the negotiating table with renewed determination ahead of COP30.
“Multilateralism remains the cornerstone of Pakistan’s climate diplomacy, and we hope for greater equity and commitment in addressing outstanding critical issues,” she added.
Pakistan is ranked as the 5th most vulnerable country to climate change, according to the Global Climate Risk Index. Apart from floods, droughts and heatwaves, the country’s eastern cities in Punjab have also witnessed unprecedented smog, taking the AQI level as high as 2,000.
