KARACHI: Concerns are at peak over the health of Pakistan’s economy as foreign reserves run out, inflation stands at decades-high levels and industrial growth slows down, with experts and industry leaders raising alarm and calling on the government to take decisive action, particularly on a stalled IMF bailout plan.
The biggest worries center around Pakistan’s ability to pay for imports such as energy and food and to meet sovereign debt obligations abroad. Right now, foreign exchange reserves with the central bank stand at just $4.6 billion, barely enough to cover a month’s imports, compelling the government to restrict the import of goods, including industrial raw materials, to stop dollar outflows.
Before devastating floods last year, an estimated $33.5 billion was needed to fulfil external financing needs for the 2022-23 financial year, according to the central bank, to be arranged through the daunting target of almost halving the current account deficit and receiving debt rollovers from friendly countries.
But in the aftermath of the floods, exports have slumped and imports have grown to make up for essential commodities lost in the flooding of millions of hectares of farmland.
Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee has weakened 20 percent since the start of the year and the decline in the currency is pushing up the cost of imports, borrowing and debt servicing, and in turn will further exacerbate inflation running already at a multi-decade high.
“The situation is alarming,” Tariq Yousuf, President of the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), told Arab News. “More than 7,500 containers [of imports] are stuck at ports and our industries are facing an acute shortage of raw materials, bringing them almost to the verge of collapse.”
Last year, the cash-strapped country imposed a ban on the import of luxury goods to avoid a balance of payment crisis but lifted some of the restrictions after pressure from the industrial sector.
Experts warn that a dire dollar crunch in Pakistan may further hurt the import of essential items in the coming months and lead to a shortage of several food items. The fast-depleting forex stockpile has currently left banks refusing to issue new letters of credit (LCs) for importers, hitting an economy already squeezed by soaring inflation and lackluster growth. The central bank has also restricted overseas payments and halved the amount of foreign currency that a person can carry overseas to $5,000.
Qaiser Ahmed Sheikh, chairman of the standing committee of the National Assembly (NA) on Finance and Revenue, told Arab News Pakistan was in a “dire situation.”
“There are problems opening LCs, approved by the State Bank of Pakistan, affecting raw material imports.”
Without an LC as a financial guarantee to foreign exporters, import clearances rarely go through.
Sheikh said thousands of import containers were stuck at various ports, which was affecting the manufacturing industry and fueling a fear of industrial closure and further inflation hikes.
The inflation rate in Pakistan is already worryingly high, recorded at 24.5 percent in December 2022, double the figure from around 12 percent in December 2021.
“Both industrialists and the masses are concerned that commodity prices are rising on a daily basis,” Sheikh said. “The inflation will increase further if the State Bank of Pakistan does not allow new LCs opening and the clearance of older LC contracts.”
The situation is particularly precarious for the country’s pharmaceutical industry, currently left with only a few days of stock.
“Pharmaceutical industries keep inventory for three months, but since November 2022 raw material arrival has stopped due to the LCs issue,” Dr. Sheikh Kaiser Waheed, spokesman of the Pakistan Pharmaceutical Manufacturers’ Association (PPMA), told Arab News.
“Due to resource constraints, the drugs for diabetes, cardiac patients, cancer patients etc, are in short supply,” he said. “This shortage is also partly due to excessive buying by patients as precautionary measures after reports of the import situation came out.”
The economic strain has caused a number of textile units, car assemblers, and other industries to suspend or scale down their operations while fears of petroleum product shortage from next month loom, according to industrialists and government sources.
In a meeting with industrialists at the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), the central bank governor this week announced that a joint committee would be set up with the FPCCI to resolve the “huge backlog in LCs,” according to a statement from the Chamber.
Pakistani senior economists interviewed by Arab News said the current economic situation was a result of the government’s “indecisiveness” with regards to negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
A 9th IMF review to clear the release of the next tranche of funds to Pakistan has been pending since September.
“The economic situation of Pakistan is alarming … but the indecisiveness of government officials further compounds the situation,” Dr. Ashfaque Hassan Khan, a senior economist, said.
Current Minister of Finance Ishaq Dar and Minister of State for Finance, Aisha Ghaus Pasha, did not respond to requests for comment for this story.
“The only options before the government now are to either accept the IMF program (with all its conditions) or leave it,” Khan added. “Pakistan is now in a catch-22 position. The government ahead of the general elections would be reluctant to burn its political capital (by imposing more taxes and raising the rate of inflation).”
There is also talk of a mini-budget being announced to meet IMF conditions after its 9th review of the $7 billion IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
“The government is negotiating with the IMF on an energy tariff increase and setting a market based exchange rate of the US dollar, which will increase inflation and there are discussions on the interest rate hike also,” Sheikh, the chairman of the NA standing committee, said.
“A mini-budget will be announced, as without it the IMF’s conditionalities cannot be fulfilled”.
The chairman denied having knowledge of the exact measures and proposed date of the mini-budget, amid speculation about a new petroleum levy and more taxes on imported and local vehicles.
“Hopefully ‘terms of engagement’ with the IMF finalized by the government of Pakistan are solid enough to finalize the 9th review,” Dr. Khaqan Najeeb, former adviser to the finance ministry, said.
“To get out of the present economic crisis, Pakistan must work on getting the IMF back, have a market determined exchange rate, rollover, reprofiling or restructuring of debt and effective social protection,” Dr. Sajid Amin, a senior economist, said.
With Pakistan’s economy in a tailspin, experts call for end to ‘indecisiveness’ on IMF program
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With Pakistan’s economy in a tailspin, experts call for end to ‘indecisiveness’ on IMF program
- More than 7,500 containers stuck at Pakistani ports create acute deficit of industrial, pharmaceutical raw materials
- Government may announce mini-budget to meet demands of the International Monetary Fund and break import deadlock
Pakistan, China conclude bilateral air exercise to bolster interoperability
- The exercise simulated various military tactics in near-realistic, multi-domain operations
- Pakistan is separately holding a joint military exercise, Harimau-Markhore II, with Malaysia
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and China on Tuesday concluded a bilateral air exercise aimed at strengthening interoperability between the two air forces, the Pakistani military said.
The Indus Shield-Chinese exercise, a bilateral module of the Indus Shield 2024 military exercise, concluded at an operational air base of Pakistan Air Force (PAF), according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Pakistani military’s media wing.
It witnessed participation from People’s Liberation Army Air Force with its personnel and high-tech equipment comprising Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, J-16 and J-10C fighter with Beyond Visual Range (BVR) equipment, HQ-22 surface-to-air defense system, Potent Airborne Electronic Warfare YTG-9 Platform, and the KJ-500 airborne early warning system pitched against the PAF’s J-10C and JF-17 Block-III fighter jets simulating contemporary aerial combat scenarios.
“The successful execution of such a large-scale exercise demonstrates Pakistan Air Force’s joint operational readiness among allied nations while addressing contemporary security challenges,” the ISPR said in a statement.
“Aimed at validating interoperability between China and Pakistan in the face of contemporary air combat challenges and by simulating various military tactics in near-realistic, multi-domain operations training environment, Indus Shield-Chinese has maximized the warfighting potential of both the participating air forces.”
Indus Shield-2024 is the largest multinational regional exercise, with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkiye among 24 countries taking part in it. The exercise aims to foster interoperability and training through state-of-the-art facilities.
Pakistan is separately holding a joint military exercise, Harimau-Markhore II, with Malaysia, Pakistani state media reported on Tuesday. The two-week-long exercise began at the National Counter-Terrorism Center in Pabbi in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtukhwa (KP) province.
“The exercise will strengthen bilateral relations between the Malaysian and Pakistani forces and provide opportunities to benefit from each other’s experiences and expertise in the future,” the Radio Pakistan broadcaster reported.
Pakistan frequently holds exercise drills with regional and international allies to foster interoperability and joint deployment concepts to strengthen regional and global security.
Also, Pakistan Navy Ship (PNS) Zulfiquar visited Port Djibouti during deployment on a regional maritime security patrol, the Directorate General Public Relations (DGPR) of Pakistan Navy said on Tuesday.
The commanding officer of PNS Zulfiquar called on senior military leadership and explored avenues for further collaboration, while the crew had professionally rewarding interactions with Djibouti Navy and Coast Guards during the port call.
“Pakistan and Djibouti enjoy close and cordial relations based on mutual respect and understanding. Both the countries also have numerous common interests in maritime arena,” the DGPR said in a statement. “Upon departure, PNS Zulfiquar conducted Passage Exercise with Djibouti Coast Guards to enhance inter-operability.”
Pakistan approves Hajj Policy 2025, adds new role to improve pilgrim services
- Pakistan will send 179,210 pilgrims, equally divided between the government and private sector
- Government will prioritize first-time pilgrims in the official balloting process, says a statement
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s federal cabinet on Tuesday approved the Hajj Policy 2025, said an official statement, specifying a quota of 179,210 pilgrims and introducing a new position of the “nazim” or administrator to ensure improved services for those embarking on the spiritual journey.
Hajj, one of Islam’s five pillars, is an annual pilgrimage to Makkah undertaken by millions of Muslims. Pakistan has one of the largest Hajj quotas provided by Saudi Arabia to any Muslim country amid immense demand for the pilgrimage, with many citizens waiting years for an opportunity to participate.
“The federal cabinet approved the Hajj Policy 2025 on the recommendation of the Ministry of Religious Affairs and Interfaith Harmony,” an official handout from the Prime Minister’s Office said. “The cabinet was informed that Pakistan’s Hajj quota for 2025 will be 179,210, divided equally between the government and the private sector.”
The new policy includes the creation of a “nazim” position, aimed at ensuring the well-being of pilgrims throughout the journey.
“For every 100 pilgrims, one nazim will be appointed from the welfare staff,” the handout added, underscoring the government’s intent to improve the pilgrimage experience.
Under the policy, children under 12 will not be allowed to travel for Hajj. Government quota allocation will be conducted through computerized balloting, with 1,000 seats reserved for hardship cases and 300 for laborers or low-income employees registered with the Workers Welfare Fund or the Employees Old-Age Benefits Institution.
Additionally, the Makkah Route Initiative, offering streamlined immigration services, will be available at Islamabad and Karachi international airports. To further enhance the experience, Hajj Group Organizers will sign service agreements with the Ministry of Religious Affairs, with close monitoring of service quality.
In light of previous challenges, the cabinet has increased compensation for pilgrims who may pass away or get injured during the pilgrimage. The families of deceased pilgrims will receive Rs1 million to Rs2 million, while injured pilgrims will receive Rs1 million in compensation.
A specialized Hajj management app has also been developed to support pilgrims, along with extensive training initiatives.
The cabinet directed priority in the balloting process to first-time pilgrims and emphasized the importance of ensuring top-quality services for all participants.
Pakistan government defends bills extending tenure of armed services chiefs
- Parliament has approved bills to extend tenure of army, navy, and air force chiefs from 3 to 5 years
- Opposition fears extending tenure will consolidate the hold of already all-powerful army chief
ISLAMABAD: Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has defended the passage this week by Pakistan’s parliament of bills that extend the tenures of the army, navy and air force chiefs, saying the move would check against services chiefs granting themselves extensions and “formalize” the duration of their service.
The bills, approved by Pakistan’s National Assembly and Senate on Monday, have been pushed by the coalition government led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif which argues that they are aimed at building continuity and avoiding some of the political turmoil that usually surrounds the appointment of the army chief every three years. The bills also extend the tenure of the heads of the navy and air force, though those positions hold less influence in Pakistan.
The office of the army chief is considered to be the most powerful in the country, with the army having ruled Pakistan for almost half of its 75-year -long history. Even when not directly in power, the army is considered to be the invisible guiding hand in politics and holds considerable sway in internal security, foreign policy, and economic affairs, among other domains. Several army chiefs in the past have been given extensions in service.
“What we did [passage of bills], these extensions [in army chief’s term] started from Ayub Khan’s time,” Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said, referring to a Pakistani general who carried out a military coup in 1958 and ruled until 1969.
“That thing has been formalized now, and we have increased the tenure. You pick up the rest of the institutions. [...] the National Assembly [term] is also for five years.”
“Now the trend of extensions, how it was in the past that people gave an extension to themselves [will be ended],” Asif added, referring to now retired Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, who served as army chief from 2016-22 after getting a three-year extension.
Speaking to a Pakistani news channel, Information Minister Ataullah Tarar also said the uncertainty surrounding the army chief’s appointment had been addressed through the new legislation.
“The five-year tenure [of the services chiefs] will not affect the institution’s merit-based system … The amendments are not introduced suddenly, instead the consultation on them was underway, and this legislation is not done for any individual.”
OPPOSITION STANCE
As the bills were passed on Monday in the National Assembly, opposition lawmakers from the PTI party of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan chanted against the measure. Some of them tore up copies of the bills and threw them at Speaker Ayaz Sadiq for not allowing debate. A similar protest by lawmakers from Khan’s party took place when the bill was quickly passed by the Senate, where Sharif’s party also holds a majority. The bill will now go to the president for his approval.
Omar Ayub Khan, a top leader of Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, or PTI, told reporters after the bill passed that the legislation “is neither good for country nor for the armed forces.”
The PTI is widely believed to be against an extension in service particularly for incumbent Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, who it considers to be behind the ouster of Khan from the PM’s office in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence in 2022. The PTI also says the army is behind legal cases against Khan that have kept him in prison since August last year. The military denies any interference in politics.
The passage of the new bills follows controversial amendments made to the constitution last month, granting lawmakers the authority to nominate the chief justice of Pakistan, who previously used to be automatically appointed according to the principle of seniority.
The amendments allowed the government to bypass the senior-most judge of the Supreme Court, Justice Mansoor Ali Shah, and appoint Justice Yahya Afridi as the country’s top judge.
The opposition and the legal fraternity had opposed the amendments, arguing that they were aimed at granting more power to the executive in making judicial appointments and curtailing the independence of the judiciary. The government denies this.
Pakistan sends delegation to Saudi Arabia following PM Sharif’s high-profile visit
- Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest $2.8 billion in Pakistan to ensure sustainable economic growth
- PM urges his team to take maximum benefit from the fruits of Pakistan’s ongoing economic diplomacy
ISLAMABAD: A Pakistani delegation departed for Saudi Arabia after recent high-level talks between the two countries, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Tuesday, as he highlighted the gains of his administration’s economic diplomacy during the federal cabinet meeting.
Pakistan has grappled with a prolonged economic crisis in recent years, addressing it through external financing from allies like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and China, along with support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
To secure sustainable economic growth, the country has sought trade and investment partnerships, with Sharif visiting Saudi Arabia and Qatar earlier this month to discuss collaborative opportunities across multiple sectors.
During these talks, Saudi Arabia pledged $2.8 billion through 34 memoranda of understanding (MoUs) and agreements on the sidelines of the Future Investment Initiative conference. Pakistan is now focused on implementing these initiatives, with five projects already underway.
“Our delegation has left for Saudi Arabia,” Sharif told cabinet members. “My visit and meeting with the crown prince [Mohammed bin Salman] went well, with positive intent for Pakistan.”
Sharif highlighted potential collaboration in mines, minerals and solar energy, while noting a demand for Pakistani information technology experts in Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
“I hope the [IT] ministry can prepare a plan [to capitalize on that],” he said.
The prime minister stressed the need to develop a highly skilled workforce to meet global standards while pointing out it was essential to “rapidly move forward” on MoU implementation with other countries.
He also mentioned $2 billion in MoUs with Azerbaijan, saying Baku had expressed readiness to proceed with these initiatives.
“These are good signals, and it’s up to us now to maximize their benefits,” he added.
Iranian FM on Islamabad visit, says Tehran reserves right to ‘legitimate defense’ against Israel
- Araghchi is in Pakistan on a two-day visit to discuss Middle East tensions, bilateral ties
- Decries Israel’s “acts of genocide” in Gaza, ongoing attacks in Lebanon, assault on Iran on Oct. 26
ISLAMABAD: Iranian foreign minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi arrived in Pakistan’s capital on Tuesday for a two-day official visit to discuss a range of issues, including tensions in the Middle East, saying at a press conference that Tehran reserved the right to a “legitimate defense” against Israeli aggressions though it did not seek escalation.
Araghchi was addressing a joint media briefing with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar in which he spoke about Israel’s “crimes and acts of genocide” in Gaza, its ongoing attacks in Lebanon and its assault on Iran on Oct. 26.
Iran’s supreme leader on Saturday threatened Israel and the US with “a crushing response” over attacks on Iran and its allies. Any further attacks from either side could engulf the wider Middle East, already teetering over Israel’s assault of the Gaza Strip and its ground invasion of Lebanon, into a wider regional conflict as the US goes into a presidential election today, Tuesday.
“Unlike the Israeli regime, the Islamic Republic of Iran does not seek escalation,” Araghchi told reporters. “However, we reserve our inherent right to legitimate defense under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter and we would certainly respond to the Israeli aggression in a proper time and in a proper manner.”
Since the deadliest attack by Hamas in its history on Oct. 7, 2023, Israel has carried out air and ground strikes in Gaza in which over 42,000 people have been killed. Since late September, it has also been at war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are allies of Iran.
Pakistan, a major ally of Saudi Arabia, shares a long border with Iran but ties have been frosty over a range of issues, including cross-border militancy.
During Tuesday’s press conference, the Iranian foreign minister appreciated Pakistan’s stance in condemning Israeli aggression against Iran.
“We [Muslim nations] are working toward a solution to stop these atrocities and to alleviate the suffering of the people of Gaza and Lebanon at the upcoming OIC meeting, especially as winter approaches, which will only intensify the hardships of the homeless and refugees in Gaza and Lebanon,” Araghchi added.
Saudi Arabia will also host a joint Arab-Islamic summit on Nov. 11 to address Israeli assaults in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon.
PAK-IRAN TIES
Speaking about bilateral relations, Araghchi reiterated Iran’s commitment to the promotion of ties with Pakistan in all areas, including economic, political, academic, cultural, and tourism.
“The objective of this round of consultation is the promotion of the all-out relations between Iran and Pakistan with a new focus on the bilateral relations, particularly in the areas of trade and economy,” he added.
Speaking at the media briefing, Pakistani FM Dar said during his meetings with Araghchi, he had emphasized the need for an “urgent” ceasefire, de-escalation, and dialogue aimed at realizing the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination.
“We also resolved that in the upcoming joint Islamic summit in Jeddah, which has been scheduled for the 11th of November, we would pool our efforts in order to make sure that we come up with a joint approach to the issues for which this joint summit has been called,” Dar said.
Dar said both sides had also discussed ways to enhance cooperation across several key areas, including trade, energy, and border security.
“We agreed to intensify collaboration on border management and address shared challenges as we underscored that terrorism and extremism pose a serious threat to the regional peace and pledged to coordinate our joint efforts to eradicate these challenges,” he added.
Pakistan and Iran have had a rocky relationship despite several commercial pacts between the two countries on trade, energy, and security. Both countries signed the $7 billion Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project agreement in 2004 but 20 years on, the project remains incomplete due to funding challenges and threats of US sanctions over doing business with Tehran.
Iran has completed the pipeline’s construction on its side of the border while Pakistan is seeking a US waiver to go ahead with building the project. Pakistan has also hired two prominent US law firms, Willkie Farr & Gallagher and White & Case, to defend its position in an international arbitration case initiated by Tehran over the stalled gas pipeline project, the attorney general confirmed to Arab News on Monday.
Pakistan and Iran are also often at odds over instability on their shared, porous frontier, with both countries routinely trading blame for not doing enough against militants who carry out cross-border attacks.
Tensions surged in January when Pakistan and Iran exchanged airstrikes, both claiming to target alleged militant hideouts in each other’s countries.
