Drone havoc in Ukraine puts Iran’s asymmetric warfare advantage into sharp relief

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Firefighters struggle to halt a blaze after a Russian attack using Iranian drones destroyed a Kyiv residential building. (AFP)
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Updated 22 January 2023
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Drone havoc in Ukraine puts Iran’s asymmetric warfare advantage into sharp relief

  • Russia’s use of UAVs shows folly of ignoring warnings about Iranian conventional weapons threat
  • Strategic utility of Shahed-136 lies in the fact it can be mass produced at a relatively low cost

WASHINGTON, D.C.: The distinctive sound of an approaching wave of loitering munitions, commonly known as kamikaze drones, has become all too familiar over the cities of Ukraine since Iran began supplying the Russian military with its domestically designed and manufactured Shahed-136.

With its roughly 2,000 km range and 30 kg explosive payload, these destructive, swarming drones have become an almost daily terror for civilians in the capital Kyiv since September, routinely striking apartment buildings and energy infrastructure.

“The Russian purchase and deployment of Iranian drones has allowed Russia to attack the broad range of civilian infrastructure in Ukraine,” David DesRoches, a military expert at the US National Defense University, told Arab News.

Designed and built by an Iranian defense manufacturer closely linked to the regime’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Shahed is low-tech compared with the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems developed by other nations.

However, their strategic utility lies in the fact that they can be mass produced at a relatively low cost. According to Ukrainian officials, the Russian military has ordered more than 2,000 of these drones and has been in talks to establish a joint manufacturing facility on Russian soil.

A recent report by the Washington Institute also claims the Kremlin has expressed interest in purchasing more advanced Iranian drones, such as the Arash, which has a longer range and can carry a larger explosive payload than the Shahed.




A drone flies over Kyiv during an attack on October 17, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (AFP file)

But before Iran’s drones made their debut in the largest and most significant conflict on the European continent since the Second World War, they were battle-tested across multiple fronts in the Middle East where the IRGC and its proxies are active.

Iran has been able to trial its drone technology against US-built air defenses stationed in Iraq and the Arabian Gulf, including the Patriot surface-to-air missile system. Now that know-how is proving invaluable to the Russian military against the Western-backed Ukrainians.

Battle-testing of Iranian drones in Ukraine against Western and Soviet-era air defense systems will undoubtedly also enhance their strategic use in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen and beyond, creating new security headaches for Israel and the wider Arab region.




Wreckage of an Iranian kamikaze drone, which was shot down in Odessa on September 25, 2022, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine. (AFP)

Kamikaze drones pose a unique problem for modern militaries. Although advanced air defense systems are able to shoot down most Shaheds before they reach their intended target, a sufficient number will inevitably break through, raining down on Ukrainian apartment buildings and civilian infrastructure.

“The drones, which fly below the radar level of conventional air defense radar, are able to penetrate into Ukraine and cause more damage than the Russians would be able to do on their own,” DesRoches said.




Firefighters struggle to halt a blaze after a Russian attack using Iranian drones destroyed a Kyiv residential building. (AFP)

“A distributed drone attack against civilian infrastructure across a large country means that you will never have enough assets to ‘kill’ all the drones. It is far more expensive to defeat a drone than to launch one, and no one has enough equipment to protect every electrical substation in their country.”

He added: “By targeting them at civilian infrastructure, Russia is able to force Ukraine to dissipate its air defense assets and may be able, at some future point, to mass missiles and drones against a significant military target. So their impact has been significant.”

According to some analysts, as a result of prior Western inaction on the proliferation of Iran’s “conventional” weapons, as opposed to its nuclear ambitions, the regime’s kamikaze drones have now been exported to Europe, potentially posing a long-term security threat to the wider continent.

These analysts say that warnings to Western officials about the threat posed by Iran’s burgeoning drone program long went unheeded, allowing the regime to develop a large manufacturing base and trade network relatively unimpeded.

According to a UK defense intelligence report, published before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, various versions of the Shahed have been covertly deployed by the regime, including in an attack on the British-flagged oil tanker MT Mercer Street in 2021, which killed two, including a British civilian.

Prior to that attack, in September 2019, a volley of cruise missiles and kamikaze drones slammed into the Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields in Saudi Arabia. US Central Command believes the attack originated from Iran, crossing Iraqi airspace.




Wreckage of Iranian weapons used to attack Saudi Arabia's Khurais oil field and Aramco facilities in Abqaiq in 2019 are displayed at a Defense Ministry press conference. (AN file photo)

Following that attack, the American Enterprise Institute urged the US government to retaliate directly against IRGC drone facilities.

“Increasing American economic pressure has not deterred Iranian military or nuclear deal-violation escalation, and American military actions have only changed the precise shape of Iranian military escalation,” it said at the time.

The 2019 attack was also the first known instance of the combined use of cruise missiles and kamikaze drones to target a major energy facility, setting a dangerous precedent that foreshadowed the same tactic’s use in Europe against Ukraine’s power grid.

Western intelligence officials believe the Russian military is growing increasingly reliant on Shaheds as a substitute for more expensive and difficult-to-manufacture long-range precision guided intermediate range missiles, in part due to Western sanctions on Russia’s purchase of crucial electronic components.




This handout picture provided by the Iranian Army on May 28, 2022, shows Iranian military commanders visiting an underground drone base in an unknown location in Iran. (AFP)

Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, a New York-based bipartisan think tank, tweeted that the US and its allies had been “behind the curve” in tackling Iranian drone proliferation.

Although the Biden administration has announced fresh sanctions targeting Iranian arms manufacturers responsible for building Shaheds, Brodsky said the West squandered precious time that could have been spent nipping the Iranian drone threat in the bud.

“Washington and allies should have been laser focused on this a decade ago with respect to Iran. But the nuclear file dominated all,” he said, referring to the now largely defunct 2015 Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

Omri Ceren, foreign policy adviser to US Senator Ted Cruz, was even more direct in his criticism of the Biden White House — for allowing Iran’s drone proliferation to reach this point and relying on Russia as the go-between with Iran on nuclear negotiations.

He tweeted: “Team Biden has made it a day 1 priority to weaken arms restrictions between Iran and Russia. They rushed to the UN to rescind the arms embargo vs Iran.”




European Union delegates attend talks to revive the Iranian nuclear deal. (AFP file)

Jake Sullivan, the administration’s national security adviser, recently acknowledges that Iran was likely “contributing to widespread war crimes” in Ukraine by actively providing a large number of combat drones and other weapons to the Russian military.

Nevertheless, serious questions remain over whether new sanctions on Iran’s drone manufacturing industry will come too little too late following years of a singular policy focus on reaching a nuclear agreement with Tehran.

Lessons provided by Israel, which has perhaps the most experience of neutralizing the Iranian drone threat, could offer US and European policymakers greater clarity, encouraging a more rapid response.

According to the Israeli defense think tank Alma, Iran’s extraterritorial Quds Force has established joint drone production facilities with a secretive division of Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, known as Unit 127.




Military drones are displayed at a Hezbollah memorial landmark in the hilltop bastion of Mleeta, near the Lebanese southern village of Jarjouaa. (AFP file)

Satellite imagery provided by Alma shows what appear to be sprawling bases, which reportedly belong to Hezbollah, established in Al-Qusayr, Syria, near the Lebanese border, and in the far eastern Syrian desert city of Palmyra.

A number of airstrikes late last year attributed to Israel (although never officially claimed) directly targeted these bases and suspected joint drone manufacturing centers. Some analysts would like to see the West similarly target Iran’s drone technology at its source.

In the meantime, DesRoches said Ukraine’s Western allies must continue to provide air defense systems, while also helping to reinforce the structural integrity of critical infrastructure to withstand air attacks.

“Instead of starting with the threat and trying to defeat it, a state needs to start with its vulnerabilities and look to protect them, assuming that a drone will get through,” he said.

Hardening key energy facilities and developing a multilayered defensive plan based on this assumption was more realistic in meeting immediate needs in blunting the impact of Iranian drones, he said.

“Soldiers don’t like to think in these ways, and the profit a defense firm will make on sandbags is much less than will be made on a surface to air missile. But national security interests are best served by a vulnerability-based assessment of drone threats.”

It does appear the Biden administration is coming to the realization — belatedly — that Iran’s asymmetric drone capabilities and proliferation have become a global security threat.

 


Macron tours Egypt aid outpost for Gaza

Updated 08 April 2025
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Macron tours Egypt aid outpost for Gaza

  • Macron was in El-Arish, 50 kilometers (30 miles) west of the Gaza Strip
  • The French president said he would meet with sick Palestinians and medical professionals in El-Arish

EL-ARISH: French President Emmanuel Macron visited Egypt’s port city of El-Arish on Tuesday, a key transit point for Gaza-bound aid, to call on Israel to lift restrictions on humanitarian access to the war-battered Palestinian territory.
An AFP journalist said Macron was in El-Arish, 50 kilometers (30 miles) west of the Gaza Strip, along with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.
Macron, who arrived in Cairo on Sunday, has said he would meet with sick Palestinians and medical professionals in El-Arish, an “outpost of humanitarian support for the civilian population of Gaza.”
The French leader is also expected to tour Red Crescent warehouses and meet with UN and aid representatives.
In a symbolic stop on his Egypt tour, Macron will call for “the reopening of crossing points for the delivery of humanitarian goods into Gaza,” a presidency statement said.
Israel cut off aid to Gaza in early March, during an impasse in negotiations to extend a truce with Hamas, whose October 7, 2023 attack triggered the war.
Later in March, after a two-month truce, Israel resumed intense bombardment across the Gaza Strip and restarted ground operations.
In Cairo, Macron, El-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II called for an “immediate return” to the ceasefire.
The three leaders met on Monday to discuss the war and humanitarian efforts to alleviate the suffering of Gaza’s 2.4 million people, the vast majority of whom have been displaced at least once during the war.
In a joint statement on Monday, the heads of several UN agencies said many Gazans are “trapped, bombed and starved again, while, at crossing points, food, medicine, fuel and shelter supplies are piling up, and vital equipment is stuck” outside of the besieged territory.


Dubai crown prince makes first official visit to India

Updated 08 April 2025
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Dubai crown prince makes first official visit to India

  • Sheikh Hamdan is scheduled to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi

DUBAI: Dubai’s Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al-Maktoum arrived in New Delhi on Tuesday morning, leading a high-level delegation on his first official visit to India.

He was received at Indira Gandhi International Airport by India’s Minister of Tourism and Petroleum and Natural Gas Suresh Gopi, with an official reception held in his honor.

During the visit, Sheikh Hamdan is scheduled to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other senior officials to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral cooperation across key sectors.

The visit reflects the UAE’s commitment to expanding strategic partnerships and promoting innovation and collaboration with global allies.


Paris makes jailed Erdogan rival honorary citizen

Updated 08 April 2025
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Paris makes jailed Erdogan rival honorary citizen

  • Mass protests have erupted in Turkiye after the March 19 arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu
  • He is widely seen as the only politician capable of challenging Erdogan at the ballot box

PARIS: The French capital on Tuesday made Istanbul’s jailed mayor a citizen of honor, with the city’s top official throwing her support behind the Turkish opposition figure.
Mass protests have erupted in Turkiye after the March 19 arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, a main rival to President Recip Tayyip Erdogan, on corruption charges his supporters say are false.
Widely seen as the only politician capable of challenging Erdogan at the ballot box, Imamoglu was elected as the opposition CHP party’s candidate for the 2028 election on the day he was jailed.
“Imamoglu is today unfairly prevented from representing his party and carrying the voice of millions of Turkish people,” Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo told the city council after it voted to make him a citizen of honor.
“Deprived of his freedom and his basic rights, he should be able to count on the full support of Paris,” said the Socialist, describing the French city as “the capital of human rights.”
This show of support “will perhaps allow the current Turkish authorities to hear the voices of democratic reason,” she added.
Hidalgo was among several European mayors who called for Imamoglu’s release last month.


Gaza rescuers say 19 killed in Israeli strikes overnight

Updated 08 April 2025
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Gaza rescuers say 19 killed in Israeli strikes overnight

  • Five children and four adults were killed in a strike that hit a home in the central city of Deir el-Balah

Gaza City, Palestinian Territories: Gaza’s civil defense agency said on Tuesday that Israeli strikes overnight killed at least 19 people across the Palestinian territory, where Israel has resumed its offensive against Hamas.
Civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP that “19 civilians including several children were martyred” and dozens more wounded in the latest Israeli raids.
Five children and four adults were killed in a strike that hit a home in the central city of Deir el-Balah, while two separate pre-dawn attacks on Gaza City and Beit Lahia in the north left a total of 10 people dead, Bassal said.
Separately, a media outlet affiliated with the Islamic Jihad movement, a Hamas ally, announced the death on Monday of an employee named Ahmed Mansur in an Israeli strike on a tent used by journalists in the Khan Yunis area.
The Hamas government media office had on Monday reported the death of journalist Hilmi Al-Faqaawi, who worked for a local news agency, in the same strike, which also wounded another nine.
The Israeli military meanwhile said the strike had targeted “Hamas terrorist Hassan Abdel Fattah Mohammed Aslih,” claiming that he operated “under the guise of a journalist and owns a press company.”
It said Aslih had “infiltrated Israeli territory and participated in the murderous massacre carried out by the Hamas terrorist organization” on October 7, 2023.
Israel resumed intense strikes on the Gaza Strip on March 18, ending a two-month ceasefire with Hamas. Efforts to restore the truce have so far failed.
According to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory, at least 1,391 Palestinians have been killed in the renewed Israeli operations, taking the overall death toll since the start of the war to 50,752.
Hamas’s October 2023 attack on Israel that triggered the war resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.


Protests, shouting as Israel court hears petitions against security chief sacking

Updated 08 April 2025
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Protests, shouting as Israel court hears petitions against security chief sacking

  • Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced last month that his government had unanimously approved a motion to dismiss the head of the Shin Bet internal security agency
  • Bar has pushed back against the government’s move to sack him, dismissing Netanyahu’s arguments as “general, unsubstantiated accusations”

JERUSALEM: Israel’s top court began a hearing on Tuesday on the hotly contested decision to sack domestic security chief Ronen Bar, with protests from government supporters and critics briefly interrupting the proceedings.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced last month that his government had unanimously approved a motion to dismiss the head of the Shin Bet internal security agency, citing “lack of trust” and requiring Bar to leave his post by April 10.
The hearing on Tuesday follows petitions filed by opposition parties and non-profit groups, challenging the legality of the government’s move which the Supreme Court had already frozen until a ruling was made.
Protests were held outside the Jerusalem courtroom, and inside, shouts and interruptions forced the judges to halt proceedings after only 30 minutes.
“No court in the world is run this way,” said Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit after warning government supporters and critics who interrupted the hearing, which is broadcast live.
Amit called for a recess, during which scuffles between the sides continued outside the courtroom.
The hearing resumed about an hour later, with no audience, “to allow the right to argue without fear for all parties involved,” according to the judges.
Attorney Zion Amir, representing the government, said that “this is purely a political petition.”
The judges will likely issue a decision later in the week, according to media reports.
Bar has pushed back against the government’s move to sack him, dismissing Netanyahu’s arguments as “general, unsubstantiated accusations” motivated by “personal interest.”
Bar said the decision was meant to “prevent investigations into the events leading up to October 7 and other serious matters” being looked at by the Shin Bet, referring to the 2023 Hamas attack on Israel.
Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, who is due to address the court, has also cautioned that ousting Bar was “tainted by a personal conflict of interest on the part of the prime minister due to the criminal investigations involving his associates.”
Baharav-Miara was referring to a case dubbed by media as “Qatargate” involving Netanyahu’s close advisers under investigation for allegedly receiving money from Qatar.
Tomer Naor, from the Movement for Quality Government in Israel which submitted one of the petitions, told AFP that “Netanyahu is under a severe conflict of interest.”
He said the group had petitioned the court to “remind that Ronen Bar is the head of the Shin Bet (and) is in charge of the investigation into ‘Qatargate’.”
Dov Halbertal, a lawyer who came to watch the hearing, said that “Netanyahu is the ruler, he can fire whoever he wants, especially this Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet that is responsible for the massacre” of October 7, 2023.
The fact that the court was hearing the petitions was “anti-democracy,” he said.
Baharav-Miara, who has often clashed with the Netanyahu administration over the independence of the judiciary, said that firing Bar could lead to the politicization of the powerful position.
Appointed Shin Bet chief in October 2021 by the previous government, led by opponents of Netanyahu, Bar has clashed with the long-serving incumbent since his return to power in late 2022.
Bar was critical of a government proposal to reform the judiciary, which drew hundreds of thousands of Israelis onto the streets in protest and was temporarily shelved when the Gaza war began with Hamas’s attack.
Bar, who was only meant to end his tenure next year, had suggested he would consider stepping down early due to his part in failing to prevent the October 7 attack, but only once the war is over and the hostages held in Gaza are freed.