Could focus on climate ease water woes between India and Pakistan?

A delegattion led by Indian Indus Water Commissioner Pradeep Kumar Saxena (2L) cross the India-Pakistan Wagah Border post, some 35 km from Amritsar on March 4, 2022, after talks in Pakistan with their Pakistani counterparts led by Syed Muhammad Mehr Ali Shah. (Photo courtesy: AFP/FILE)
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Updated 23 February 2023
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Could focus on climate ease water woes between India and Pakistan?

  • The two countries have utilized water resources under a 1960 agreement which has withstood standoffs and skirmishes
  • India says it wants to renegotiate the treaty amid changing climate, though Pakistan is reluctant due to mistrust of Delhi

SRINAGAR: As climate change impacts strengthen and water security becomes a growing concern in both India and Pakistan, India has proposed renegotiating a six-decade-old water sharing treaty – a move Pakistan so far opposes.

But renegotiation – or at least tweaking the treaty – may be as important for Pakistan as India, environmental experts say, as a dam-building push in both countries, rising water demand from growing populations and faster swings between drought and floods make water rights and access an ever-bigger worry.

The 1960 Indus Waters Treaty – mediated by the World Bank – splits the Indus River and its tributaries between the South Asian neighbors and regulates the sharing of water.

The treaty has withstood standoffs, skirmishes and even wars, but diplomatic relations between the two foes have been reduced since 2019 due to tensions over disputed Kashmir, and a feud over water sharing and supplies is now intensifying.

While each country has dozens of hydropower projects in the Indus Basin currently operational or under construction, the ongoing water dispute centers around Pakistan’s opposition to India’s 330 megawatt (MW) Kishanganga project on the Jhelum river and the 850 MW Ratle project on the Chenab river.

Pakistan is seeking resolution at the Court of Arbitration in The Hague over its concerns with the two projects, while India has asked its neighbor to enter into bilateral negotiations to modify the Indus Waters Treaty, to stop third parties intervening in disputes.

Under the current terms of the treaty, the two countries can resolve disputes either through a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank, or at the Court of Arbitration.

Pakistan has taken the latter route because it is concerned that some of India’s planned and commissioned hydropower dams will reduce flows that feed at least 80 percent of its irrigated agriculture.

India, however, says that the way it is designing and constructing the hydroelectric plants is permitted under the terms of the treaty.

Analysts on both sides of the border say Pakistan is unlikely to reopen the agreement with India bilaterally because, as the smaller nation, it believes the involvement of international institutions strengths its position.

Yet some academics think the agreement should be reviewed to factor in climate change impacts for the first time.

For example, Daanish Mustafa, a professor of critical geography at King’s College London, said that doing so could ultimately benefit Pakistan, as India would be expected to take warming impacts into consideration when designing hydropower projects and making decisions about water.

A 2019 study in the journal Nature by Pakistani and Italian researchers noted that climate change was “quickly eroding trust” between the two nations and that the treaty “lacks guidelines ... (on) issues related to climate change and basin sustainability.”

However, Ali Tauqeer Sheikh, an environmental and development analyst based in Islamabad, said increasingly worrying climate change pressures are currently “the best instrument available for ensuring water cooperation and regional stability.”

Rather than “playing as victims of climate change,” the two nations should work together to create policies that work for both, he said, adding that the treaty should be updated to cover climate-related concerns from melting glaciers to more intense rainfall.

While communities in the Indus Basin are already dealing with the rising heat, longer droughts and erratic rainfall that are increasingly common across South Asia, the likelihood of reduced river flows related to climate change will have “significant impacts on various sectors of the economy,” said glacier expert Shakil Romshoo.

“Further depletion of the stream flow will jeopardize the food, energy and water security in the entire Indus basin,” said Romshoo, a professor at the earth sciences department at Kashmir University.

Neither Pakistan nor India’s respective foreign affairs and climate change ministries responded to requests for comment on the treaty or ongoing water disputes between the two countries.

ELECTION, FLOODS, MILITANTS

Last month, proceedings Pakistan had sought to resolve the disagreements over water started at the Court of Arbitration.

Pakistan is concerned about two Indian hydropower projects that it says will affect water flows on the Jhelum river and one of its tributaries, and water storage on the Chenab river.

India has boycotted the case, having previously suggested appointing a neutral expert while blaming Pakistan for dragging out the complaints process.

Just two days before the proceedings in The Hague began, New Delhi sent a notice to Islamabad asking it to agree to modify the Indus Waters Treaty within 90 days to guarantee that disputes would be handled between the two nations without any outside interference.

Neither nation can pull out of the treaty unilaterally as there is no exit clause, according to Sheikh, who said the countries “must agree over practical solutions.”

With Pakistan due to hold a general election this year, still recovering from devastating floods, and battling a financial crisis and an insurgency by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan militants, “there is limited bandwidth to get involved in water treaty talks,” said Delhi-based Omair Ahmad, an international relations analyst who has studied the treaty.

Ahmad Rafay Alam, a Pakistani environmental lawyer and activist, said reopening the treaty is unlikely given Pakistan’s multiplying concerns and the two nations’ mutual suspicions.

“But I understand (Pakistan’s) Ministry of Foreign Affairs is preparing a reply,” he said, adding that it was unlikely to be public as the government did not publish such documents.

CLIMATE IMPACTS LACKING

Pakistan’s Institute of Policy Studies said in 2017 that the Indus Waters Treaty now needs to be considered in light of other international agreements such as the 2015 Paris Agreement to limit global warming, which Pakistan and India have both signed.

“There is very little in the treaty for the best possible use of the water resources of the river system, especially when we are in an era of climate change,” said Ashok Swain, a professor at Sweden’s Uppsala University and UN cultural agency UNESCO’s chair of international water cooperation.

Besides above-ground water flows, the Indus Basin’s underground water storage is the world’s second most “overstressed,” with almost no new water flowing into storage to offset extraction, a 2015 study in the journal Water Resources Research found.

The Katmandu-based International Center for Integrated Mountain Development warned in 2019 that even if global warming can be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, glaciers that feed the Indus Basin are projected to lose a third of their total volume by the end of the century.

It is not just academics and analysts who have raised concerns about the water treaty’s challenges in dealing with climate change impacts.

In 2021, an Indian parliamentary standing committee on water resources urged the government to initiate a process for renegotiating the treaty with Pakistan as “present-day pressing issues such as climate change, global warming and environmental impacts ... were not taken into account.”

Yet India has yet to cite the climate or environment in any discussions around the treaty and that is unlikely to change, said Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the New Delhi-based South Asia Network of Dams, Rivers and People, a research group.

“The way it has panned out ... with all the hostilities and lack of trust from both sides, there is little chance of an agreement on dispute resolution bilaterally,” he added.


Pakistan eyes over $6 billion in Saudi support as top foreign financier in FY26

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Pakistan eyes over $6 billion in Saudi support as top foreign financier in FY26

  • China, Pakistan’s largest trading partner, projected to be second-biggest lender with $4.37 billion
  • Budget documents also list smaller expected inflows from Kuwait ($21.4 million) and Oman ($5.14 million)

KARACHI: Saudi Arabia is expected to be Pakistan’s largest source of external financing in the upcoming fiscal year with over $6 billion in support as the South Asian country seeks to raise more than $20 billion from international lenders to uplift its fragile economy, official budget documents released this week showed.

In the 2025–26 fiscal year starting July 1, Pakistan aims to secure $6.46 billion from Riyadh, including $5 billion in time deposits, $1 billion in oil on deferred payments, and $46.4 million in economic assistance, according to the budget documents.

The financial support is intended to help stabilize the country’s external account and meet its balance of payments needs.

Islamabad has long relied on financial support from its Gulf and Chinese partners to shore up its foreign reserves and avoid default. In 2023, these inflows played a key role in helping Pakistan avert a sovereign debt crisis.

“The support from Saudi Arabia in the form of deposits and oil facility is undoubtedly the major source of the external stability,” said Shankar Talreja, head of research at Karachi-based Topline Securities.

Pakistan’s government unveiled a Rs17.6 trillion ($62 billion) federal budget on June 10, aiming to consolidate what it describes as fragile macroeconomic stability achieved under a $7 billion bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Notably, Pakistan has not earmarked a specific amount under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its external financing estimates for 2025-26. The country is currently operating under a 37-month IMF Extended Fund Facility approved last year.

In total, Pakistan has budgeted for Rs5.78 trillion ($20.4 billion) in foreign assistance in FY26, including both loans and grants from bilateral and multilateral partners, to help shore up reserves and finance its current account. The country’s total external receipts for the year are budgeted at Rs20.3 trillion ($71.9 billion).

China, Pakistan’s largest trading partner and longtime ally, is projected to be the second-biggest lender after Riyadh with $4.37 billion, including $4 billion in “safe deposits,” a form of central bank support, and $37 million in economic assistance.

“China is a major bilateral partner… supporting Pakistan with both commercial loans and time deposits,” said Talreja. “Both types are refinanced and renewed annually.”

Pakistan’s multilateral lenders include the Asian Development Bank (ADB), World Bank, Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and others such as the United Nations, OPEC Fund, and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

SMALLER LENDERS AND REMITTANCES

Besides Saudi Arabia and China, Pakistan will also seek smaller amounts of aid and financing from countries including the United States, France, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, according to the budget documents, which also list smaller expected inflows from Kuwait ($21.4 million) and Oman ($5.14 million).

However, a long-delayed Saudi oil facility, initially expected last year, has yet to materialize. Media reports have suggested Riyadh has linked its final approval to progress on Saudi investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper and gold mining project.

State media reported in September that Saudi Arabia had offered a 15 percent equity stake in the multibillion-dollar Reko Diq mine in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province. The project, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold reserves, is operated by Canada’s Barrick Gold.

Islamabad also plans to raise $1.3 billion in commercial loans and $400 million through international bond issuances, though the finance ministry has not specified the sovereign guarantees or instruments.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has separately said the government aims to issue Panda bonds, yuan-denominated debt instruments issued in China, to raise around $200 million from Chinese investors to boost foreign exchange reserves.

In addition to official financing, Pakistan continues to benefit significantly from worker remittances, particularly from the Gulf region.

According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024–25, released this week, Saudi Arabia accounted for $7.4 billion in remittances in the last fiscal year, about 25 percent of the national total.

Remittances from all six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries — Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain — totaled $16.1 billion, or more than half of Pakistan’s total remittance inflows in 2024.

“In the GCC region, expanding Saudi mega-projects led to higher migrant employment, further contributing to inflows,” the economic survey said.

“It’s not just deposits and oil facilities helping Pakistan,” added Talreja. “Remittances from Saudi Arabia alone are a quarter of Pakistan’s total remittances.”

“Saudi Arabia is a key nation for Pakistan in terms of foreign inflows, whether in the form of remittances or economic assistance,” Sana Tawfik, head of research at Arif Habib Ltd. said.


Pakistan’s Sindh to launch HPV vaccination drive for girls in September

Updated 22 min 2 sec ago
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Pakistan’s Sindh to launch HPV vaccination drive for girls in September

  • Human Papillomavirus, spread through sexual contact, is a very common virus that can cause cancers later in life
  • Vaccination drive to target Sindh’s school-going girls aged 9-14, will cover all province’s districts, says state media

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s southern Sindh province will launch a Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination drive for school-going girls aged nine to 14 years in September, state-run media reported this month.

HPV is a very common virus that can cause cancers later in life, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). About 13 million people, including teens, become infected with HPV each year. Medical experts recommend protecting children from these cancers through the HPV vaccine.

The HPV vaccine series, as per the CDC, is most effective when given before a person is exposed to the virus. It is a very common virus that is spread through sexual contact and can live in the skin for many years without causing symptoms. In some cases, HPV can cause genital warts or cervical cancer.

“Sindh government announced to launch vaccination campaign for school-going girls aged from nine to fourteen in September this year,” state broadcaster Radio Pakistan reported on June 4. “According to official sources, the Human Papillomavirus vaccination campaign will be launched in all districts of the province.”

Citing sources, the state media said vaccinations will also be eligible for “uneducated” girls.

According to UNICEF, cervical cancer claims the lives of 3,200 women in Pakistan each year despite being preventable with the HPV vaccine. Yet, awareness about HPV and the importance of vaccination remains alarmingly low in the South Asian country.

In 2025, UNICEF together with partners GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance and the World Health Organization, said it will support Pakistan to introduce the HPV vaccine to help protect millions of adolescent girls from cervical cancer.

It cited myths and taboos as one of the greatest challenges to HPV vaccine acceptance in Pakistan. These myths, it said, included ones that claimed vaccines cause infertility and another that the HPV vaccine is just for sexually active girls.


‘I can solve anything’: Trump offers to mediate Kashmir dispute between India, Pakistan

Updated 45 min 55 sec ago
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‘I can solve anything’: Trump offers to mediate Kashmir dispute between India, Pakistan

  • Trump last month brokered a ceasefire between India, Pakistan after they engaged in four days of fighting
  • India has always refused outside mediation on disputed Kashmir territory while Islamabad has welcomed it

ISLAMABAD: US President Donald Trump this week reiterated his offer to mediate and resolve the longstanding dispute between India and Pakistan on the disputed Kashmir territory, as tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors continue to simmer.

India and Pakistan pounded each other with artillery fire, missiles, drone strikes and fighter jets for four days before Trump announced a ceasefire between both sides on May 10. The US informed last month after the ceasefire announcement both India and Pakistan had agreed to meet at a neutral venue to address their differences, though New Delhi has so far publicly ruled out bilateral talks with Islamabad.

Trump said last month he used Washington’s trade ties with both countries to persuade them to back off from further military confrontation and agree to a ceasefire, taking the credit for preventing an all-out nuclear war. Speaking to reporters before signing a bill in the White House’s East Room on Thursday, the American president said Washington was “going to get those two getting together.”

“I told them, India and Pakistan — they have a longtime rivalry over Kashmir — I said, I can solve anything,” he told reporters. “I’ll be your arbitrator.”

India has always refused any outside mediation on Kashmir, the scenic Himalayan region which has a Muslim majority but a sizable Hindu minority. Both India and Pakistan claim the entire region but administer parts of it. The two countries have fought two out of three wars over the territory since 1947.

Trump reiterated his claim that he stopped the war between India and Pakistan last month through “phone calls and trade.”

“And India’s here right now negotiating a trade deal and Pakistan’s coming I think next week,” the US president said.

Tensions escalated between India and Pakistan on April 22 when gunmen attacked and killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir at the Pahalgam tourist resort. New Delhi, without offering proof, blamed Pakistan for the attack, alleging it had supported “cross-border terrorism.”

Pakistan denied the allegations and called for a credible, international probe into the incident. Following weeks of tensions, India struck multiple Pakistani cities with missiles on the night of May 6, claiming it had struck “terrorist” camps in the country.

Pakistan denied Indian allegations, saying the missiles had killed innocent children and vowed to retaliate.


Pakistani leaders, national carrier condole over Air India plane crash, killing over 290

Updated 12 June 2025
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Pakistani leaders, national carrier condole over Air India plane crash, killing over 290

  • Dead included people on the ground as London-bound aircraft crashed on medical college hostel during lunch hour
  • Police say found one survivor who was in seat 11A next to an emergency exit, there could be more survivors in hospital

KARACHI: Pakistani leaders and the country’s national carrier offered condolences on Thursday as more than 290 people were killed when an Air India plane with 242 people on board crashed minutes after taking off from the western city of Ahmedabad in the world’s worst aviation disaster in a decade.

The dead included people on the ground as the aircraft — headed for Gatwick Airport, south of the British capital — crashed on a medical college hostel during lunch hour.

At least one passenger is known to have survived the crash, police said.

“Saddened by the tragic crash of Air India flight near Ahmedabad today. We extend our condolences to the families of the victims grieving this immense loss,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by this heartbreaking tragedy.”

PIA, Pakistan’s national carrier, said it stood in “solidarity with our fellow aviation community, offering our deepest condolences to Flight 171 and all those impacted.”

Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, the head of a Pakistani delegation visiting world capitals to present Islamabad’s position on a recent military standoff with New Delhi, also expressed condolences over the Indian plane crash after his team arrived in Brussels to hold meetings.

“Saddened to hear a tragic incident occurred earlier today,” he said on X. “I express my profound condolences to the people of India.”

Vidhi Chaudhary, a top state police officer, told Reuters approximately 294 had died:

“This includes some students as the plane crashed on the building where they were staying.”

She said police found one survivor who was in seat 11A, next to an emergency exit, adding that there could be more survivors in hospital.

Indian media widely reported the survivor had been sitting in seat 11A, after videos shared on social media showed Vishwash Kumar Ramesh — in a bloodied t-shirt and limping, but walking toward an ambulance. (X/Screenshots)

“Thirty seconds after take-off, there was a loud noise and then the plane crashed,” 40-year-old survivor Ramesh Viswashkumar told the Hindustan Times, which showed a boarding pass for seat 11A in that name online.

“It all happened so quickly,” he told the paper from his hospital bed.

“When I got up, there were bodies all around me. I was scared. I stood up and ran. There were pieces of the plane all around me … Someone grabbed hold of me and put me in an ambulance and brought me to the hospital.”

He said that his brother, Ajay, was seated in a different row on the plane.

“He was traveling with me and I can’t find him anymore. Please help me find him,” he said.

FOREIGN NATIONALS ON BOARD

Ahmedabad police chief G.S. Malik said the bodies recovered could include both passengers and people killed on the ground. The dead included Vijay Rupani, the former chief minister of Gujarat state, of which Ahmedabad is the main city.

Relatives had been asked to give DNA samples to identify the dead, state health secretary Dhananjay Dwivedi told reporters.

Parts of the plane’s body were scattered around the smoldering building into which it crashed. The tail of the plane was stuck on top of the building.

The passengers included 217 adults, 11 children and two infants, Reuters reported. Air India said 169 were Indian nationals, 53 were Britons, seven Portuguese, and one Canadian.

Aviation tracking site Flightradar24 said the plane was a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, one of the most modern passenger aircraft in service.

It was the first crash for the Dreamliner, which began flying commercially in 2011, according to the Aviation Safety Network database. The plane that crashed on Thursday flew for the first time in 2013 and was delivered to Air India in January 2014, Flightradar24 said.

CRASH JUST AFTER TAKE-OFF

Thursday’s crash occurred just after the plane took off. TV channels showed the plane taking off over a residential area and then disappearing from the screen before a huge fireball could be seen rising into the sky from beyond the houses.

“My sister-in-law was going to London. Within an hour, I got news that the plane had crashed,” Poonam Patel, a relative of one of the passengers, told news agency ANI at the government hospital in Ahmedabad.

Ramila, the mother of a student at the medical college, told ANI her son had gone to the hostel for his lunch break when the plane crashed.

“My son is safe, and I have spoken to him. He jumped from the second floor, so he suffered some injuries,” she said.

According to air traffic control at Ahmedabad Airport, the aircraft departed at 139 p.m (0809 GMT). It gave a Mayday call, signaling an emergency, but thereafter there was no response from the aircraft.

US aerospace safety consultant Anthony Brickhouse said one problematic sign from videos of the aircraft was that the landing gear was down at a phase of flight when it would typically be up.

Rescue officials work at the site where Air India flight 171 crashed in a residential area near the airport in Ahmedabad on June 12, 2025. (AFP)

“If you didn’t know what was happening, you would think that plane was on approach to a runway,” Brickhouse said.

Boeing said it was in contact with Air India and working to gather more information. Boeing shares fell 5 percent as the crash posed a major setback for the plane maker as its new CEO looks to rebuild trust following a series of safety and production challenges.

Aircraft engine-maker GE Aerospace said that it would put a team together to go to India and analyze cockpit data, India’s CNBC TV18 reported.

The US National Transportation Safety Board said it would lead a team of US investigators traveling to India to help in the investigation.

Britain was working with Indian authorities to urgently establish the facts around the crash and to provide support to those involved, the country’s foreign office said.

“The tragedy in Ahmedabad has stunned and saddened us,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on X. “It is heartbreaking beyond words.” Gujarat is Modi’s home state.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said images emerging of the crash were “devastating.”

A Buckingham Palace spokesperson said King Charles was also being kept updated.

INDIA’S FIRST CRASH SINCE 2020

Ahmedabad Airport, which suspended all flight operations after the crash, said it was operational again but with limited flights. The airport is operated by India’s Adani Group conglomerate.

Rescuers work at the site of an airplane that crashed in India's northwestern city of Ahmedabad in Gujarat state on June 12, 2025. (AP)

The last fatal plane crash in India, the world’s third largest aviation market and its fastest growing, was in 2020 and involved Air India Express, the airline’s low-cost arm.

The airline’s Boeing-737 overshot a “table-top” runway in southern India, skidded and plunged into a valley, crashing nose-first into the ground and killing 21 people.

The formerly state-owned Air India was taken over by Indian conglomerate Tata Group in 2022, and merged with Vistara — a joint venture between the group and Singapore Airlines – in 2024.

DEADLY CIVILIAN CRASHES OVER THE DECADES

AUGUST 2020

Twenty-one people died when an Air India Express Boeing 737 plane skidded off the runway in the southern city of Kozhikode during heavy rain, plunged into a valley and crashed nose-first into the ground.

MAY 2010

An Air India Boeing 737 flight from Dubai overshot the runway at the airport in the southern city of Mangaluru and crashed into a gorge, killing 158 people on board.

JULY 2000

More than 50 people were killed when a state-owned Alliance Air flight between Kolkata and the capital, New Delhi, crashed in a residential area of the eastern city of Patna.

APRIL 1993

An Indian Airlines Boeing 737 crashed during takeoff in the western city of Aurangabad and killed 55 people on board.

AUGUST 1991

An Indian Airlines Boeing 737 flight from Kolkata crashed during descent near Imphal, the capital of the hilly north-eastern state of Manipur, killing all 69 occupants onboard.

OCTOBER 1988

More than 130 passengers died when an Indian Airlines Boeing 737, flying from Mumbai to Ahmedabad, crashed as it was coming in to land.

JANUARY 1978

All 213 passengers of an Air India flight were killed when the captain lost control of the plane after take-off and plunged it into the Arabian Sea off the coast of Mumbai, India’s financial hub.

With inputs from Reuters


Pakistan central bank expected to hold policy rate in June 16 meeting – survey

Updated 12 June 2025
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Pakistan central bank expected to hold policy rate in June 16 meeting – survey

  • 56 percent survey respondents predict no change, 44 percent expect rate cut amid moderate inflation outlook
  • Bank has cut rate by 1,000 basis points since June 2024 from all-time high of 22% before holding it in March

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s central bank is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 11 percent in its upcoming monetary policy meeting next week, according to a survey conducted by brokerage firm Topline Securities.

The bank had cut the rate by 1,000 basis points since June 2004 from an all-time high of 22 percent before holding it in March, citing the risk of price rises including from increased US tariffs.

In May, the central bank cut its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11 percent, citing an improved inflation outlook and resuming a series of cuts from a record high of 22 percent.

“56 percent of market participants expect a status quo in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, compared to 31 percent in the previous poll,” Topline Securities said in a market note, releasing the results of its survey.

“44 percent of participants anticipate a further rate cut of at least 50 basis points. Of these, 19 percent expect a 50 bps cut and 25 percent foresee a 100 bps cut.”

The brokerage house said analysts believed the SBP may have space to ease the policy rate further by up to 100 basis points, with inflation for fiscal year 2025–26 forecast to average between 6 and 7 percent.

However, it said the likelihood of near-term rate cuts was tempered by external headwinds such as rebounding global crude oil prices, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainty around a potential US-China trade agreement.

“Some major notifications are also expected before the start of the next fiscal year— such as gas and electricity price adjustments,” the report said.

“The inflationary impact of these measures is yet to be assessed and absorbed. That said, we believe the central bank will observe the status quo in the upcoming meeting.”

Topline’s survey also found that 58 percent of respondents expect the interest rate to remain above 10 percent through December 2025, while 42 percent foresee a range between 8 and 10 percent.

On inflation expectations, 69 percent believe average inflation will range between 6 and 8 percent in the next fiscal year, 20 percent expect it to hover between 8 and 10 percent, and 11 percent forecast inflation falling below 6 percent.

Separately, the SBP confirmed that its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be held on Monday, June 16, as scheduled.

The meeting is being closely watched by investors and market analysts amid changing domestic and global economic conditions. While the May rate cut signaled the beginning of a monetary easing cycle, rising external risks and upcoming fiscal adjustments may prompt a more cautious stance from the central bank.