A year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Pakistan’s economy continues to bleed 

Ukrainian bystanders look on to residential buildings that were destroyed during an attack, in Borodyanka on February 23, 2023. (Photo courtesy: AFP/FILE)
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Updated 25 February 2023
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A year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Pakistan’s economy continues to bleed 

  • Economists say the conflict cost Pakistan 1 percent of GDP, directly contributing 9 percent to inflation rate 
  • Pakistan will continue to suffer from impacts of Russia-Ukraine conflict until 2027, experts say 

KARACHI: When Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan visited Moscow on February 24 last year, he did not realize that the man he was to meet in Kremlin was about to press the war button and his country would bear its brunt. A year on, the estimates indicate that the war has cost his country 1 percent of its economic growth. 

The Russian invasion, which entered its second year on Friday with no end in sight, coincided with Khan’s visit to Moscow and has hit Pakistan hardest in terms of diplomatic relations with the West and economically at home. 

The conflict disrupted the global supply-chain network and led to an international hike in oil price. It came at a time when the South Asian country was recovering from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and, according to economists, has dented Pakistan’s economy in various ways. 

“The first major impact of the Russia-Ukraine war was that Pakistan’s energy import bill inflated substantially and increased the cost of production which triggered huge inflationary pressure in the country,” Dr. Sajid Amin, a deputy executive director at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), told Arab News. 

“We estimate that the war has directly contributed 8-9 percent to current inflation rate in Pakistan as oil and food commodities prices shoot up in the global market after a war.” 

The South Asian nation is currently experiencing multi-decade high inflation that was recorded at 27.6 percent in January and is projected to hit as high as 40 percent in coming days. 

“The war has had severe impact in terms of commodity price hikes, termed as the commodities super cycle, which coincided with the opening of the industrial world after COVID and the shortage caused by the Russian-Ukraine war,” Dr. Khaqan Najeeb, a former adviser to the Pakistani finance ministry, told Arab News. 

The increase in Pakistan’s overall energy bill pushed the country’s current account deficit (CAD) beyond $17.4 billion, impacting its reserves that were already dwindling since December 2021, according to Najeeb. 

“Coupled with fund delays, Pakistan’s balance of payment remained challenging and continues to do so even today,” he added. 

Pakistan’s petroleum import bill remained $23.3 billion in the last fiscal year (FY22), which was 105 percent higher than the previous year, while the country has imported energy products worth $10.6 billion during the first seven months of this current fiscal year (FY23), according to official data. 

Economists say 1 percent of Pakistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) has directly suffered because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

“The GDP loss that has been globally estimated by many institutions is 1 percent due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” Amin said. 

“Our estimates show that it has increased unemployment in Pakistan and pushed roughly 3.5 million people below the poverty line.” 

The conflict, through oil and food price hikes, has severely impacted the life of a commoner in Pakistan. 

“Particularly, the poor segment that spends 60-70 percent of their income on food basket,” Amin said. 

“Those who were close to the poverty line have slipped below the poverty line and at the same time, employment opportunities have diminished amid monetary and fiscal policy tightening.” 

The most important fact, according to Pakistani economists, is that the impacts of the Russian invasion will continue to haunt Pakistan for the next five years. 

“Our estimates suggest that the war impacts will continue to persist until 2026-27, also because of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program and contractionary monetary policy,” Amin said. 

As cash-strapped Pakistan continues to suffer at the economic front, experts say the country has faced setbacks on the diplomatic front as well. 

“Pakistan has suffered from the almost exclusive focus of the US and Western countries on the war in Ukraine. These countries have little time and energy left to pay attention to other problem spots around the world, including Pakistan,” Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US who is currently a scholar at the Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi, told Arab News. 

“The fact that former prime minister Imran Khan chose to stand beside President Putin in Moscow on the day Russia invaded Ukraine further diminished Pakistan’s ties with the West.” 

Haqqani said though Pakistan has move on but the war has caused it economic and political damages. 

“Pakistan has moved on from that moment but the Ukraine war has hurt Pakistan economically as well as politically,” he said. 

“Politically, Pakistan’s loss has come from the lack of ability of major Western leaders to attend to Pakistan and its neighborhood because their attention is on the war in Ukraine.” 

As Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to fuel volatility in the global commodity market, Pakistani authorities are striving to import petroleum products and Russian oil at discounted rates. 

“Pakistan has now tried to take advantage of price tact, Russian crude and refined products. Let’s hope that it does materialize,” Najeeb said. 

“The price that has been quoted informally around $60 a barrel may help bring down Pakistan’s imported energy costs and ease the balance-of-payment pressure as we move forward.” 

Pakistani authorities expect to import Russian refined oil from March this year, expecting that Moscow will provide cheap energy alternates to energy-deficient Pakistan. 
 


Pakistan stock market hits record high on ADB funding boost, insurance sector buying

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Pakistan stock market hits record high on ADB funding boost, insurance sector buying

  • The benchmark KSE-100 index gained 1,573.07 points, or 1.32 percent, during Tuesday’s trading
  • Anticipated relief for oil refineries, real estate and agri sectors played catalyst role, analysts say

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) surged to an all-time high of more than 120,000 points on Tuesday, with analysts attributing the rally to the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) financing package for Pakistan and strong buying by insurance companies in banking, fertilizer and power sectors.

The benchmark KSE-100 index closed at an unprecedented high of 120,450.87 points, marking a gain of 1,573.07 points, or 1.32 percent, from the previous day’s close of 118,877.80.

The development follows the ADB’s approval of an $800 million package to help Pakistan enhance fiscal reforms and economic stability, alongside the government’s approval of over Rs800 billion for public sector development projects in the upcoming budget.

“Stocks closed all time high led by scrips across the board after ADB approval of $800 million financing package,” Ahsan Mehanti, CEO of Arif Habib Commodities, told Arab News.

“Government set FY26 growth target at 4.2percent and government approval for Rs880 billion PSDP in the federal budget FY26 announcements next week.”

Mehanti said the anticipated budgetary relief for oil refineries, real estate and agriculture sectors, along with gains in rupee’s value, played a catalytic role in the bullish close at the PSX.

Raza Jafri, head of Intermarket Securities, said this was the first time the KSE-100 Index has ever closed above the 120,000-point mark.

“Strong buying by insurance companies in sectors such as banks, fertilizers and power led the market higher,” he said.

The budget for fiscal year 2025–26 is expected to be presented in Pakistan’s lower house of parliament on June 10, following the Eid Al-Adha holidays.

Pakistan’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.5 percent in May, though the country’s macroeconomic outlook has improved in recent months, supported by a stronger current account balance, increased remittances and declining inflation.

Authorities remain cautious as they aim to build on recent economic stabilization, guide the country toward gradual growth, and reaffirm their commitment to ongoing economic reforms.


Russia urges normal India-Pakistan ties, eyes deeper counterterrorism cooperation with Islamabad

Updated 14 min 53 sec ago
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Russia urges normal India-Pakistan ties, eyes deeper counterterrorism cooperation with Islamabad

  • Senior Pakistani official Syed Tariq Fatemi briefs Russia’s Sergey Lavrov on India standoff during Moscow visit
  • The Russian foreign minister expressed satisfaction over growing ties, including cooperation on new steel mills

ISLAMABAD: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on Tuesday called for normal relations between India and Pakistan and expressed interest in closer counterterrorism cooperation with Islamabad during a meeting with a senior aide of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Moscow.

The meeting came as Syed Tariq Fatemi, special assistant to the prime minister, began a visit to Russia weeks after India and Pakistan exchanged missiles, drones and artillery fire, following heightened tensions that ended with a US-brokered ceasefire on May 10.

Pakistan has since call for a “composite dialogue” with India to discuss all outstanding issues, though New Delhi has rejected direct talks after Washington said the two countries had agreed to meet at a neutral venue to defuse tensions.

Both sides have also formed delegations to present their respective positions over the conflict to the international community.

“At the outset of his visit to the Russian Federation, Syed Tariq Fatemi, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) called on Sergey Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, this afternoon,” Pakistan’s embassy in Moscow said in a statement. “He also briefed the Russian Foreign Minister, in detail, about the recent developments in South Asia, conveying Pakistan’s perspective on the dangers of escalation as well as the dire consequences of India’s threat to reduce the flow of the Indus Waters Treaty, by holding the Treaty in a so-called ‘abeyance.’”

“Foreign Minister Lavrov stressed Russia’s support for promotion of normal relations between the two countries and its positive effect in the region,” the statement added.

Fatemi also delivered a letter from Prime Minister Sharif to President Vladimir Putin and conveyed Pakistan’s desire to expand cooperation with Russia in areas including energy, trade and connectivity.

Lavrov, for his part, expressed satisfaction over the “steadily growing bilateral cooperation” and cited specific initiatives, including new steel mills and connectivity projects.

“He [Lavrov] also stated that Russia looked forward to working closely with Pakistan, within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), especially in the field of counter-terrorism,” the embassy said.

Russia and Pakistan have strengthened ties in recent years through growing bilateral cooperation, particularly in energy, and by working together on regional platforms such as the SCO, where both are full members.


Pakistan launches cybercrime helpline seeking swift action on complaints

Updated 03 June 2025
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Pakistan launches cybercrime helpline seeking swift action on complaints

  • The development comes as Pakistani authorities announce busting a child sexual abuse ring in Azad Kashmir’s Muzaffarabad
  • Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi urges the use of advanced technology, software and hardware to fight crime in digital realm

ISLAMABAD: Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi on Tuesday launched a cybercrime helpline, 1799, that aims to ensure swift resolution of complaints, Pakistani state media reported.

The development came during Naqvi’s visit to the headquarters of the National Cyber Crimes Investigation Agency (NCCIA), which was established earlier this year, the APP news agency reported.

The minister toured various departments, including the helpline center, forensic lab and network security section, and appreciated the staff for their efforts to combat cybercrime.

“The helpline is now fully operational, and citizens can lodge cybercrime complaints by calling 1799,” the interior minister was quoted as saying.

Pakistan transformed the Cybercrime Wing of its Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) into an autonomous organization and named it the NCCIA in April. It followed the introduction of a new law to regulate social media content, with journalist groups and rights activists saying it was aimed at curbing press freedom and dissent on social media.

Enacted in 2016 and further tightened with amendments this January, the Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA) was drafted with the stated aim to combat cybercrimes such as hacking, online harassment, and data breaches. Pakistani officials defended the PECA law, under which offenders can be handed prison sentences of up to three years and fines of Rs2 million ($7,200).

Naqvi directed NCCIA officials to ensure quick resolution of all complaints, saying the agency was established to meet the demands of the modern digital era, according to the report.

He emphasized the need for the use of advanced technology, software and hardware to fight cybercrime effectively and stressed the need to hire talented staff and equiping them with all necessary resources.

The development came as authorities announced busting a child sexual abuse ring, allegedly run by a German national, in Azad Kashmir’s capital of Muzaffarabad.

“A state-of-the-art facility was formed with modern cameras and over there, children from poor families were exploited by giving money first and then blackmailing,” State Minister for Interior Talal Chaudhry said at a presser on Tuesday.

“Their videos were sold on the dark web.”

The NCCIA busted the ring in a five-hour operation on May 23 and arrested two suspects, according to the minister. Ten kids were also found at the facility, of which six were sent to the Child Protection Bureau.

“The German man used to facilitate and sell this [content],” Chaudhry said, without disclosing the identity of the suspect. “We are trying to reach him legally.”

Child sexual abuse has been a widespread issue in Pakistan, where perpetrators are often family members, teachers or trusted people. Poverty, lack of education and societal attitudes contribute to the problem. While laws exist, their implementation remains a challenge. Various NGOs are also working to raise awareness about the issue and support survivors.


Pakistan champions SCO Development Bank plan to drive regional economic integration

Updated 03 June 2025
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Pakistan champions SCO Development Bank plan to drive regional economic integration

  • The finance minister virtually addresses SCO meeting in Beijing due to ongoing annual budget preparations
  • Muhammad Aurangzeb welcomes the operational launch of the SCO’s network of financial think tanks

KARACHI: Pakistan’s finance chief Muhammad Aurangzeb highlighted his country’s support for the establishment of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Development Bank during his address to the meeting of his regional counterparts on Tuesday while describing the initiative key to economic integration.

Aurangzeb made the remarks as he virtually joined the SCO finance ministers’ meeting held in Beijing due to Pakistan’s ongoing annual budget preparations. The SCO, a key Eurasian political and economic bloc, has emerged as a major platform for regional coordination and economic cooperation.

The SCO Development Bank is a proposed multilateral financial institution to serve member states that has been under discussion for several years. It has gained renewed interest from some SCO countries like Pakistan, China and Russia as part of efforts to boost regional economic integration, infrastructure financing and regional connectivity.

“Regarding the SCO Development Bank, Pakistan strongly supports this establishment,” the Pakistani finance minister said during his address.

“We envision the bank as an institution for innovation, integrating digital finance, fintech solutions and green financing mechanisms into its core operations, and look forward to engaging on the technical details of establishment of the SCO Development Bank,” he added.

Aurangzeb also welcomed the operational launch of the SCO’s network of financial think tanks, saying it would provide a platform for strategic foresight and policy research to support financial cooperation across member states.

Highlighting Pakistan’s recent economic performance, he said the country had made “significant progress” on macroeconomic stability, citing a current account surplus, improved fiscal indicators, a stable currency, growing foreign exchange reserves and reduced inflation.

These gains, he said, were supported by ongoing structural reforms in taxation, energy, public finance and state-owned enterprises.

Aurangzeb reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to the SCO’s core principles and called for enhanced economic collaboration through joint ventures, technology transfer and capacity-building initiatives among member states.

Noting global economic challenges such as slowing growth, rising inequality and climate change, he stressed that SCO countries must work together to promote sustainable and inclusive development, particularly across the Global South.

“Infrastructure development and regional connectivity are vital for promoting economic growth and integration,” he said, reaffirming Pakistan’s support for transportation, energy and digital connectivity projects under the SCO framework.

The finance minister concluded by reiterating Pakistan’s commitment to advancing the SCO’s vision of regional stability, prosperity and collective progress.


Islamabad Police say killer of Pakistani TikTok star Sana Yousaf arrested

Updated 03 June 2025
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Islamabad Police say killer of Pakistani TikTok star Sana Yousaf arrested

  • Sana Yousaf, with over 830,000 followers on TikTok, was murdered at her Islamabad residence on Monday
  • Islamabad Police chief says suspect murdered Yousaf for repeatedly turning down his “friendship” proposals

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani police said on Tuesday it had arrested the main suspect in the murder of 17-year-old TikTok star Sana Yousaf, disclosing that he had killed her after she repeatedly rejected his proposals for “friendship.” 

Yousaf, who had over 830,000 followers and 29 million likes on video sharing platform TikTok, was shot dead at her house in Islamabad’s G-13 area on Monday. Police launched a probe on Monday, saying that unidentified persons shot Yousaf in the chest twice and killed her on the spot. Her body was shifted to the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences (PIMS) hospital in Islamabad for post-mortem. 

A CCTV footage, which was first shared on private news channels and then later on state-run Pakistan Television (PTV), showed a young man walking briskly away from Yousaf’s house in broad daylight. Sharing details of the suspect, Islamabad Inspector General of Police Syed Ali Nasir Rizvi said the suspect is a matriculation student and the son of a retired government officer who was arrested from Faisalabad. 

The police official said the suspect did not have any source of income, adding that he used to promote content on Instagram and other social media platforms. 

“Before getting into the motive, I should make it clear that we have arrested [the suspect] and recovered the weapon of offense,” Rizvi told reporters at a news conference. 

He said police also recovered Yousaf’s iPhone from the suspect, which he had taken with him to erase evidence of the crime. 

“Basically, it was a case of repeated rejections,” Rizvi said, adding that the suspect had been trying to contact Yousaf through social media in the past, who had been rejecting his offers of “friendship.” 

He said the suspect had tried to contact Yousaf for eight to nine hours at her Islamabad residence on May 29, the day of her birthday, but could not succeed. Rizvi said the suspect tried to meet Sana again on June 2 at her residence, waiting there for eight to 10 hours but failed again. 

“And then he planned and entered her house because of his weapon and murdered her,” the Islamabad Police official said. 

Rizvi described it as a “blind murder,” saying that it was a challenging case for police to solve as the suspect had taken her mobile phone and left no evidence of the crime. He credited Islamabad Police officials for solving the murder within 20 hours through the use of cellular technology and digital surveillance. 

Pakistani news outlets frequently report cases of violence against women, particularly for turning down marriage proposals or for uploading videos on TikTok and other social media platforms. 

Police in Pakistan’s southwestern province in January arrested a man for being involved in murdering his 14-year-old daughter, an American citizen, for posting “objectionable” videos on TikTok. 

More than 54 million people use TikTok in conservative Pakistan, where authorities have repeatedly blocked the app over concerns regarding its content. It was banned four times in 2021.