The calculus of war: Tallying Ukraine toll an elusive task

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People lie on the floor of a hospital during shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol, Ukraine, Friday, March 4, 2022. (AP)
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People shop at a local market in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in Mariupol, Russian-controlled Ukraine, February 11, 2023. (REUTERS)
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A woman cries in front of the building which was destroyed by a Russian attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. (AP)
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People attend a demonstration supporting a so called 'Manifesto for Peace' in Berlin, Saturday, Germany, Feb. 25, 2023. (AP)
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Updated 26 February 2023
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The calculus of war: Tallying Ukraine toll an elusive task

  • Estimates of the casualties, refugees and economic fallout from the war produce an incomplete picture of the deaths and suffering

GENEVA: Quantifying the toll of Russia’s war in Ukraine remains an elusive goal a year into the conflict.
Estimates of the casualties, refugees and economic fallout from the war produce an incomplete picture of the deaths and suffering. Precize figures may never emerge for some of the categories international organizations are attempting to track.
UN human rights experts count civilians killed and wounded, but know their tally falls significantly short. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has provided an updated accounting of their troop losses.
Even the scope of the weaponry that Western countries have sent Ukraine is murky.
Here’s a look at some of the numbers as Friday marks one year since Russian forces invaded Ukraine, with no end to the war in sight.
THE EVOLUTION OF AN INVASION
Roughly 5,000 missile strikes, 3,500 airstrikes and 1,000 drone strikes: Firepower that Russia has launched against Ukraine over the past year, according to Brig. Gen. Oleksiy Hromov, a senior official in the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
18: The percentage of total Ukrainian land controlled by Russian forces as of Thursday, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank. That’s down from 27 percent on March 23, before Ukrainian counteroffensives recaptured vast swaths of land — but up from the 7 percent held by Russia and Russia-aligned separatists before Feb. 24, 2022, as part of an armed rebellion in eastern Ukraine that began in 2014, and Russia’s annexation of Crimea that year.
71,905: Potential Russian war crimes — killings, kidnappings, indiscriminate bombings and sexual assaults — that are under investigation by Ukraine’s prosecutor-general. Reporting by The Associated Press and “Frontline,” recorded in a public database, has independently verified 639 incidents that appear to violate the laws of war.
 

THE CASUALTIES
8,006: Confirmed civilian deaths in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, through Feb. 15, according to the UN human rights office. The office uses strict methodology and says verification of thousands of reported casualties is still pending in Russian-occupied cities such as Mariupol, Lysychansk, and Sievierodonetsk.
3,382: Civilian deaths in Ukraine recorded by the UN rights office for March 2022, the highest number for a single month of the war.
13,287: Civilians injured in the conflict over the last year, according to the UN
5,937: Russia’s most recent count, from September, of its troops killed in Ukraine since February 2022.
Around 200,000: Western Estimate of Russian troops killed and wounded. Britain’s Ministry of Defense has estimated 40,000-60,000 Russian troops have died fighting in Ukraine.
9,000 : Ukraine’s most recent count, of its troops losses since the invasion provided in August by Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.
More than 100,000: Estimate of Ukrainian troops killed or wounded, according to Western officials.
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PEOPLE
8.1 million: Refugees who fled Ukraine after the Russian invasion, based on figures provided by national governments. The number includes more than 5.2 million in over 40 European and central Asian countries, including nearly 1.6 million in Poland, over 880,000 in Germany and nearly 2.9 million who went to Russia, according to UN refugee agency UNHCR.
5.4 million: People who were driven from their homes but stayed inside Ukraine, according to a Jan. 23 count by the International Organization for Migration. The number of internally displaced people peaked in early May 2022, when IOM reported there were more than 8 million.
5.6 million: Ukrainians who have returned to their homes, either from within Ukraine or abroad, according to the latest IOM figures.
17.6 million: People in Ukraine needing humanitarian aid, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
ECONOMIC COST
$138 billion: The total damage caused to Ukraine’s infrastructure due to the war, according to the latest Kyiv School of Economics figure from Jan. 24.
33 percent: Minimum drop in Ukraine’s gross domestic product in 2022 expected by the International Monetary Fund. Final numbers are pending.
2.2 percent: Expected decline in Russia’s GDP in 2022, according to the IMF.
30 percent: Decline in the value of Ukrainian exports in 2022, as reported by the World Trade Organization
16 percent : Increase in the value of Russian exports in 2022, according to the WTO. It noted that the volume of Russian exports may have declined slightly, but the value was up because of price increases for fuels, fertilizers and cereals that Russia produces.
INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
$113 billion: Emergency funding for the Ukraine response approved by US Congress last year. Includes about $62 billion to be provided through the Defense Department, nearly half of it for weapons, training and other “direct security assistance,” and $46 billion through the State Department and US Agency for International Development, according to the Pentagon and an inter-departmental report issued last month.
$78 billion: Total US commitments made directly to Ukraine over most of last year and through Jan. 15, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The Germany-based institute says its figure excludes funds that were over-reported, have gone unused, or actually go to Ukraine’s neighbors or to US domestic programs. Its tally doesn’t include more recent US pledges to Ukraine, such as for 31 M1 Abrams tanks.
$59 billion (55 billion euros): Total commitments to Ukraine from European Union member nations and EU institutions, according to IFW Kiel.
$14 billion (13 billion euros): Pledges and allocations from non-country donors, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
50 percent: Rough estimate by IFW-Kiel of aid disbursed as a percentage of commitments made by various donors.

 


US military ready to carry out lawful orders of next administration, Pentagon chief says

Updated 07 November 2024
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US military ready to carry out lawful orders of next administration, Pentagon chief says

  • “The US military will also continue to stand apart from the political arena;,” Austin wrote

WASHINGTON: US Défense Secretary Lloyd Austin told troops that the Pentagon was committed to an orderly transition to the incoming administration of Donald Trump, adding that the military would not get involved in politics and was ready to carry out “all lawful orders.”
“The US military will also continue to stand apart from the political arena; to stand guard over our republic with principle and professionalism; and to stand together with the valued allies and partners who deepen our security,” Austin wrote in a memo to troops that was sent out on Wednesday night.


Germany arrests a US citizen over accusations of spying for China

Updated 07 November 2024
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Germany arrests a US citizen over accusations of spying for China

  • The suspect, who was only identified as Martin D., was arrested in Frankfurt
  • His home was being searched

BERLIN: Germany’s federal prosecutor office said it arrested an American citizen on Thursday who allegedly spied for China.
The office said that the suspect, who was only identified as Martin D., was arrested in Frankfurt and that his home was being searched.
The accused, who until recently worked for the US Armed Forces in Germany, is strongly suspected of having agreed to act as an intelligence agent for a foreign secret service.
Earlier this year, he contacted Chinese government agencies and offered to transmit sensitive information from the US military to a Chinese intelligence service, according to an investigation by Germany’s domestic intelligence service.
He had obtained the information in question in the course of his work in the US army, the prosecutor’s statement said, without giving any further information.


Offering Putin Ukraine concessions ‘suicidal’ for Europe: Zelensky

Updated 07 November 2024
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Offering Putin Ukraine concessions ‘suicidal’ for Europe: Zelensky

  • Zelensky blasted those who were urging him to give in to some of President Vladimir Putin’s hard-line demands
  • “There has been much talk about the need to yield to Putin, to back down, to make some concessions ...” Zelensky said

KYIV: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday said it would be “suicidal” for Europe to offer the Kremlin concessions to halt its invasion of Ukraine.
Speaking to European leaders at a summit in Hungary, Zelensky blasted those who were urging him to give in to some of President Vladimir Putin’s hard-line demands, and urged Europe and the United States not to loosen ties following the election of Donald Trump.
“There has been much talk about the need to yield to Putin, to back down, to make some concessions ... It’s unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for all Europe,” Zelensky said, according to a copy of the address provided to AFP by the Ukrainian presidency.
He accused some European leaders, without specifying who, of “strongly” pushing Ukraine to make “concessions to Putin” — something Kyiv says would only embolden the Kremlin leader and encourage further aggression.
“We need sufficient weapons, not support in talks. Hugs with Putin won’t help. Some of you have been hugging him for 20 years, and things are only getting worse,” Zelensky said.
The summit was being hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has repeatedly railed against the West’s multi-billion dollar support to Kyiv.
Zelensky also urged Europe and the US to preserve their strong ties following Trump’s election victory this week.
The Republican has repeatedly criticized American aid to Ukraine and said he could end the war within hours of taking office.
“We do hope that America will become stronger. This is the kind of America that Europe needs. And a strong Europe is what America needs. This is the connection between allies that must be valued and cannot be lost,” Zelensky said.
As he repeated a call for more Western arms for his struggling army, Zelensky said Europe had to realize that North Korea was effectively “waging war” on the continent.
“North Korea is now, in effect, waging war in Europe. North Korean soldiers are attempting to kill our people on European soil,” he said, referring to reports Pyongyang has deployed troops to Russia to support the invasion.


US military judge reinstates 9/11 mastermind plea deal: official

Updated 07 November 2024
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US military judge reinstates 9/11 mastermind plea deal: official

  • The prosecution has the opportunity to appeal the decision, but it was not immediately clear if they would do so

WASHINGTON: A US military judge has reinstated plea agreements for 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two other defendants, an official said Thursday, three months after the deals were scrapped by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
The agreements — which are understood to take the death penalty off the table — had triggered anger among some relatives of victims of the 2001 attacks, and Austin said that both they and the American public deserved to see the defendants stand trial.
“I can confirm that the military judge has ruled that the pretrial agreements for the three accused are valid and enforceable,” the US official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
The prosecution has the opportunity to appeal the decision, but it was not immediately clear if they would do so.
The plea deals with Mohammed and two alleged accomplices were announced in late July in a step that appeared to have moved their long-running cases toward resolution after years of being bogged down in pre-trial maneuverings while the defendants remained held at the Guantanamo Bay military base in Cuba.
But Austin withdrew the agreements two days after they were announced, saying the decision should rest with him given its significance.
He subsequently told journalists that “the families of the victims, our service members and the American public deserve the opportunity to see military commission trials carried out in this case.”
Much of the legal jousting surrounding the men’s cases has focused on whether they could be tried fairly after having undergone methodical torture at the hands of the CIA in the years after 9/11 — a thorny issue that the plea agreements would have avoided.


India’s Hindus bathe in holy river defiled by pollution

Updated 07 November 2024
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India’s Hindus bathe in holy river defiled by pollution

  • Thousands celebrated the festival of Chhath Puja for the Hindu sun god Surya, entering the stinking Yamuna waters to pray
  • A parliamentary report in February called the Yamuna ‘more of a toxic waterway than a river’

NEW DELHI: Sweeping aside thick toxic scum, thousands of Hindu devotees ignored court warnings Thursday against bathing in the sacred but sewage-filled Yamuna river, a grim display of environmental degradation in India’s capital.
Thousands celebrated the festival of Chhath Puja for the Hindu sun god Surya, entering the stinking waters to pray as the evening rays set in the sky.
A parliamentary report in February called the Yamuna “more of a toxic waterway than a river,” saying the foam clouds were formed from a potent chemical soup including laundry detergent and phosphates from fertilizers.
“Please understand you will fall sick,” a high court order said Wednesday, Indian media reported, restricting ritual bathing on health grounds. “We can’t allow you to go into the water.”
But housewife Krishnawati Devi, 45, said she was not worried.
“I believe the waters of the river are pure and blessed by the sun god himself,” she said. “Nothing will happen to me — god will take care of everything.”
Hindu faithful ignored the order, with women wrapped in fine saris and heavy jewelry wading into the grey waters.
White foam swirled around their feet. In places, it was so thick it looked like the river had frozen.
“Chhath is a festival of unflinching faith,” said Avinash Kumar, 58, a government office worker. “We can also offer prayers at home but it doesn’t feel the same as praying in the river.”
Others thumped drums and sang.
New Delhi’s authorities have poured in anti-foaming agents to disperse the froth, and used nets to sweep the scum away — but it has done nothing to clean the fetid water itself.
“It stinks, but it’s ok,” said 14-year-old schoolgirl Deepa Kumari. “What is important is that we get to celebrate in the river with our people.”
Rituals in the days-long festival culminate at dawn on Friday.
“I don’t bother about the pollution,” said Pooja Prasad, 20, a student. “The mother goddess will take care of all our troubles,” she added.
The sprawling megacity of some 30 million people is also smothered in poisonous smog — fueled by burning crop fields and vehicle exhaust fumes.
Levels of fine particulate matter — dangerous microparticles known as PM2.5 pollutants that enter the bloodstream through the lungs — have this week surged beyond 50 times the World Health Organization recommended daily maximum.
“Toxi-city,” broadcasters dubbed the capital.
City authorities have declared repeated efforts to clean the river.
From an icy source of a Himalayan glacier, the Yamuna feeds into the mighty Ganges, flowing more than 3,100 kilometers (1,925 miles) to the sea in the Bay of Bengal.
But barely 400 kilometers into that journey, the water passing New Delhi is already effectively dead.
The parliamentary report warned of an “excessive presence of heavy metals” and cancer-causing pollutants ranging from arsenic to zinc, from everything from batteries to pesticides.
“Contamination... transform it into a carrier of untreated industrial waste, garbage, agricultural run-off and municipal waste,” the report read.
“This has a profound effect on the well-being of the people.”
Government statistics say 80 percent of the pollution load is raw sewage, far exceeding permissible levels for bathing.
Some of the faithful have traditionally drunk the water.
Levels fluctuate, but in one spot in 2021 in south Delhi, fecal bacteria levels exceeded maximum health regulations by 8,800 times.
But many say they are frustrated at the situation.
“The river is sacred to us, but all the filth from the industrial belt nearby is being pumped into it,” added Kumar.
“Every year they say they are going to clean it, but nothing ever happens.”