The calculus of war: Tallying Ukraine toll an elusive task

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People lie on the floor of a hospital during shelling by Russian forces in Mariupol, Ukraine, Friday, March 4, 2022. (AP)
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People shop at a local market in the course of Russia-Ukraine conflict in Mariupol, Russian-controlled Ukraine, February 11, 2023. (REUTERS)
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A woman cries in front of the building which was destroyed by a Russian attack in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, Friday, Dec. 16, 2022. (AP)
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People attend a demonstration supporting a so called 'Manifesto for Peace' in Berlin, Saturday, Germany, Feb. 25, 2023. (AP)
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Updated 26 February 2023
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The calculus of war: Tallying Ukraine toll an elusive task

  • Estimates of the casualties, refugees and economic fallout from the war produce an incomplete picture of the deaths and suffering

GENEVA: Quantifying the toll of Russia’s war in Ukraine remains an elusive goal a year into the conflict.
Estimates of the casualties, refugees and economic fallout from the war produce an incomplete picture of the deaths and suffering. Precize figures may never emerge for some of the categories international organizations are attempting to track.
UN human rights experts count civilians killed and wounded, but know their tally falls significantly short. Neither Russia nor Ukraine has provided an updated accounting of their troop losses.
Even the scope of the weaponry that Western countries have sent Ukraine is murky.
Here’s a look at some of the numbers as Friday marks one year since Russian forces invaded Ukraine, with no end to the war in sight.
THE EVOLUTION OF AN INVASION
Roughly 5,000 missile strikes, 3,500 airstrikes and 1,000 drone strikes: Firepower that Russia has launched against Ukraine over the past year, according to Brig. Gen. Oleksiy Hromov, a senior official in the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
18: The percentage of total Ukrainian land controlled by Russian forces as of Thursday, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank. That’s down from 27 percent on March 23, before Ukrainian counteroffensives recaptured vast swaths of land — but up from the 7 percent held by Russia and Russia-aligned separatists before Feb. 24, 2022, as part of an armed rebellion in eastern Ukraine that began in 2014, and Russia’s annexation of Crimea that year.
71,905: Potential Russian war crimes — killings, kidnappings, indiscriminate bombings and sexual assaults — that are under investigation by Ukraine’s prosecutor-general. Reporting by The Associated Press and “Frontline,” recorded in a public database, has independently verified 639 incidents that appear to violate the laws of war.
 

THE CASUALTIES
8,006: Confirmed civilian deaths in Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, through Feb. 15, according to the UN human rights office. The office uses strict methodology and says verification of thousands of reported casualties is still pending in Russian-occupied cities such as Mariupol, Lysychansk, and Sievierodonetsk.
3,382: Civilian deaths in Ukraine recorded by the UN rights office for March 2022, the highest number for a single month of the war.
13,287: Civilians injured in the conflict over the last year, according to the UN
5,937: Russia’s most recent count, from September, of its troops killed in Ukraine since February 2022.
Around 200,000: Western Estimate of Russian troops killed and wounded. Britain’s Ministry of Defense has estimated 40,000-60,000 Russian troops have died fighting in Ukraine.
9,000 : Ukraine’s most recent count, of its troops losses since the invasion provided in August by Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.
More than 100,000: Estimate of Ukrainian troops killed or wounded, according to Western officials.
REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PEOPLE
8.1 million: Refugees who fled Ukraine after the Russian invasion, based on figures provided by national governments. The number includes more than 5.2 million in over 40 European and central Asian countries, including nearly 1.6 million in Poland, over 880,000 in Germany and nearly 2.9 million who went to Russia, according to UN refugee agency UNHCR.
5.4 million: People who were driven from their homes but stayed inside Ukraine, according to a Jan. 23 count by the International Organization for Migration. The number of internally displaced people peaked in early May 2022, when IOM reported there were more than 8 million.
5.6 million: Ukrainians who have returned to their homes, either from within Ukraine or abroad, according to the latest IOM figures.
17.6 million: People in Ukraine needing humanitarian aid, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.
ECONOMIC COST
$138 billion: The total damage caused to Ukraine’s infrastructure due to the war, according to the latest Kyiv School of Economics figure from Jan. 24.
33 percent: Minimum drop in Ukraine’s gross domestic product in 2022 expected by the International Monetary Fund. Final numbers are pending.
2.2 percent: Expected decline in Russia’s GDP in 2022, according to the IMF.
30 percent: Decline in the value of Ukrainian exports in 2022, as reported by the World Trade Organization
16 percent : Increase in the value of Russian exports in 2022, according to the WTO. It noted that the volume of Russian exports may have declined slightly, but the value was up because of price increases for fuels, fertilizers and cereals that Russia produces.
INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE
$113 billion: Emergency funding for the Ukraine response approved by US Congress last year. Includes about $62 billion to be provided through the Defense Department, nearly half of it for weapons, training and other “direct security assistance,” and $46 billion through the State Department and US Agency for International Development, according to the Pentagon and an inter-departmental report issued last month.
$78 billion: Total US commitments made directly to Ukraine over most of last year and through Jan. 15, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The Germany-based institute says its figure excludes funds that were over-reported, have gone unused, or actually go to Ukraine’s neighbors or to US domestic programs. Its tally doesn’t include more recent US pledges to Ukraine, such as for 31 M1 Abrams tanks.
$59 billion (55 billion euros): Total commitments to Ukraine from European Union member nations and EU institutions, according to IFW Kiel.
$14 billion (13 billion euros): Pledges and allocations from non-country donors, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
50 percent: Rough estimate by IFW-Kiel of aid disbursed as a percentage of commitments made by various donors.

 


Malaysian court drops one of the graft cases against jailed former premier Najib Razak

Updated 27 November 2024
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Malaysian court drops one of the graft cases against jailed former premier Najib Razak

  • Najib had already been convicted in his first graft case tied to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad state fund, or 1MBD, scandal

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia: A Malaysian court on Wednesday dropped charges against jailed former Prime Minister Najib Razak over criminal breach of trust linked to the multibillion-dollar looting of a state fund.
Najib had already been convicted in his first graft case tied to the 1Malaysia Development Berhad state fund, or 1MBD, scandal and began serving time in 2022 after losing his final appeal in his first graft case.
But he faces other graft trials including Wednesday’s case in which he was jointly charged with ex-treasury chief Irwan Serigar Abdullah with six counts of misappropriating 6.6 billion ringgit ($1.5 billion) in public funds. The money was intended as 1MDB’s settlement payment to Abu Dhabi’s International Petroleum Investment Company.
The Kuala Lumpur High Court discharged the pair after ruling that procedural delays and prosecutors’ failure to hand over key documents were unfair to the defense, said Najib’s lawyer, Muhammad Farhan. A discharge doesn’t mean an acquittal as prosecutors reserve the right to revive charges against them, he said.
“The decision today was based on the non-disclosure of critical documents, six years after the initial charges were brought up, which are relevant to our client’s defense preparation. Therefore the court correctly exercised its jurisdiction to discharge our client of the charges,” Farhan said.
Najib set up 1MDB shortly after taking power in 2009. Investigators allege more than $4.5 billion was stolen from the fund and laundered by his associates to finance Hollywood films and extravagant purchases. The scandal upended Najib’s government and he was defeated in the 2018 election.
Najib, 71, issued a rare apology in October for the scandal “under his watch” but reiterated his innocence.
Last month, he was ordered to enter his defense in another key case that ties him directly to the 1MDB scandal. The court ruled that the prosecution established its case on four charges of abuse of power to obtain over $700 million from the fund that went into Najib’s bank accounts between 2011 and 2014, and 21 counts of money laundering involving the same amount.
In addition, Najib still has another money laundering trial. His wife Rosmah Mansor and other senior government officials also face corruption charges.


Pakistan ends lockdown of its capital after Imran Khan supporters are dispersed by police

Updated 27 November 2024
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Pakistan ends lockdown of its capital after Imran Khan supporters are dispersed by police

  • The police operation came hours after thousands of Khan supporters, defying government warnings, broke through a barrier of shipping containers
  • Tension has been high in Islamabad since Sunday when supporters of the former prime minister began a “long march” from the restive northwest to demand Khan’s release

ISLAMABAD: Authorities reopened roads linking Pakistan’s capital with the rest of the country, ending a four-day lockdown, on Wednesday after using tear gas and firing into the air to disperse supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan who marched to Islamabad to demand his release from prison.
“All roads are being reopened, and the demonstrators have been dispersed,” Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said.
Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, who was leading the protest, and other demonstrators fled in vehicles when police pushed back against the rallygoers following clashes in which at least seven people were killed.
The police operation came hours after thousands of Khan supporters, defying government warnings, broke through a barrier of shipping containers blocking off Islamabad and entered a high-security zone, where they clashed with security forces.
Tension has been high in Islamabad since Sunday when supporters of the former prime minister began a “long march” from the restive northwest to demand his release. Khan has been in a prison for over a year and faces more than 150 criminal cases that his party says are politically motivated.
Hundreds of demonstrators have been arrested since Sunday.
Bibi and leaders of her husband’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party fled to Mansehra in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where the party still rules.
Khan, who remains a popular opposition figure, was ousted in 2022 through a no-confidence vote in Parliament.


Anti-mine treaty signatories slam US decision to send land mines to Ukraine

Updated 27 November 2024
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Anti-mine treaty signatories slam US decision to send land mines to Ukraine

  • Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has called the mines “very important” to halting Russian attacks
  • Ukraine receiving US mine shipments would be in “direct violation” of the anti-mine treaty

Siem Reap, Cambodia: Washington’s decision to give anti-personnel mines to Ukraine is the biggest blow yet to a landmark anti-mine treaty, its signatories said during a meeting.
Ukraine is a signatory to the Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention which prohibits the use, stockpiling, production and transfer of land mines.
The United States, which has not signed up to the treaty, said last week it would transfer land mines to Ukraine to aid its efforts fighting Russia’s invasion.
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has called the mines “very important” to halting Russian attacks.
Ukraine receiving US mine shipments would be in “direct violation” of the treaty, the convention of its signatories said in a statement released late Tuesday.
“In the 25 years since the Convention entered into force, this landmark humanitarian disarmament treaty had never faced such a challenge to its integrity,” it said.
“The Convention community must remain united in its resolve to uphold the Convention’s norms and principles.”
Ukraine’s delegation to a conference on progress under the anti-landmine treaty in Cambodia on Tuesday did not mention the US offer in its remarks.
In its presentation, Ukrainian defense official Oleksandr Riabtsev said Russia was carrying out “genocidal activities” by laying land mines on its territory.
Riabtsev refused to comment when asked by AFP journalists about the US land mines offer on Wednesday.
Ukraine’s commitment to destroy its land mine stockpiles left over from the Soviet Union was also “currently not possible” due to Russia’s invasion, defense ministry official Yevhenii Kivshyk told the conference.
Moscow and Kyiv have been ratcheting up their drone and missile attacks, with Ukraine recently firing US long-range missiles at Russia and the Kremlin retaliating with an experimental hypersonic missile.
The Siem Reap conference is a five-yearly meeting held by signatories to the anti-landmine treaty to assess progress in its objective toward a world without antipersonnel mines.
On Tuesday, land mine victims from across the world gathered at the meeting to protest Washington’s decision.
More than 100 demonstrators lined the walkway taken by delegates to the conference venue in Cambodia’s Siem Reap.


Turkiye scales down $23 bln F-16 jet deal with US, minister says

Updated 27 November 2024
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Turkiye scales down $23 bln F-16 jet deal with US, minister says

ANKARA: Turkiye has reduced its planned $23 billion acquisition of an F-16 fighter jet package from the United States, scrapping the purchase of 79 modernization kits for its existing fleet, Defense Minister Yasar Guler said late on Tuesday.
NATO member Turkiye earlier this year secured a deal to procure 40 F-16 fighter jets and 79 modernization kits for its existing F-16s from the United States, after a long-delayed process.
“An initial payment has been made for the procurement of F-16 Block-70. A payment of $1.4 billion has been made. With this, we will buy 40 F-16 Block-70 Viper and we were going to buy 79 modernization kits,” Guler told a parliamentary hearing.
“We gave up on this 79. This is why we gave up: Our Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) facilities are capable of carrying out this modernization on their own, so we deferred to them,” he said.
The sale of the 40 new Lockheed Martin F-16 jets and ammunition for them will cost Turkiye some $7 billion, Guler added.
Turkiye placed its order in October 2021, two years after the United States kicked the country out of the fifth-generation F-35 fighter jet program over its procurement of a Russian missile defense system.
Turkiye wants to re-join the F-35 program and buy 40 new F-35 jets, Guler also said.
Turkiye is one of the largest operators of F-16s, with its fleet made up of more than 200 older Block 30, 40 and 50 models.
Ankara is also interested in buying Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets, built by a consortium of Germany, Britain, Italy and Spain.
It is also developing its own combat aircraft, KAAN.


Ukrainian delegation visiting Seoul to ask for weapons aid, media reports say

Updated 27 November 2024
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Ukrainian delegation visiting Seoul to ask for weapons aid, media reports say

  • The group was expected to meet their South Korean counterparts as early as Wednesday, according to the report

SEOUL: A Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is visiting South Korea this week to ask for weapons aid to be used by Kyiv in its war with Russia, according to media reports.
The delegation had met with South Korea’s National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik to exchange views on the conflict in Ukraine, the DongA Ilbo newspaper reported on Wednesday, without giving a source.
In an interview with South Korean broadcaster KBS in October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv would send a detailed request to Seoul for arms support including artillery and an air defense systems.
The South China Morning Post also reported this week that a Ukrainian delegation was due to visit South Korea to request weapons aid, citing an informed source.
The group was expected to meet their South Korean counterparts as early as Wednesday, according to the report.
A spokesperson for South Korea’s defense ministry declined to confirm when asked whether a Ukrainian delegation had arrived in Seoul during a regular media briefing on Tuesday.
Seoul, which has emerged as a leading arms producer, has been under pressure from some Western countries and Kyiv to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons but has so far focused on non-lethal aid including demining equipment.
South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, asked earlier this month whether Seoul would send weapons to Ukraine in response to North Korea aiding Russia, said all possible scenarios were under consideration and Seoul would be watching the level of participation by North Korean troops in Russia and what Pyongyang received from Moscow in return.