Can elections in cash-strapped Pakistan be held in three phases?

Elections for the 297 general seats of Pakistan’s biggest provincial assembly-- Punjab Assembly-- for a five-year term are scheduled for April 30 and the process of submission of nomination papers with the Election Commission has already begun. But the political parties desirous of taking part in the process have yet to select their official nominees, a process that generally takes considerable time to complete.

One of the reasons for their failure to complete this important formality is the uncertainty shrouding the fate of the polls even this close to the deadline. The conflicting stances of the ruling coalition leaders on the subject are a major reason. The festivity generally seen at the time of submission of nomination papers has not been witnessed anywhere, which is evidence of voters’ lack of trust in the exercise. It is less likely to be witnessed even in the coming weeks because of the advent of Ramadan, when people prefer to focus on fasting and other religious activities. 

A number of important leaders, including ministers for interior and law, have consistently been saying that the present situation is not conducive for fresh balloting and that the exercise will be held in October this year after the sitting assemblies complete their term. They also argue that Pakistan cannot afford to stage the exercise in phases because of the lack of resources.

The question is, if Pakistan cannot afford to hold elections in Punjab before the rest of the country because of a lack of resources, how will it be possible to stage the same exercise in three phases? 

- Ashraf Mumtaz

But, unfortunately, the policy the ruling coalition--PDM-- is following is not in line with this line of thinking.

The governor of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, where the assembly was dissolved a few days after Punjab’s legislature, has set May 28 for the elections. In other words, a month after the Punjab elections.

This means if the schedule is followed, elections in Pakistan will be held in three phases, with those of the national assembly and Sindh and Balochistan legislatures in the third phase.

The question is, if Pakistan cannot afford to hold elections in Punjab before the rest of the country because of a lack of resources, how will it be possible to stage the same exercise in three phases? 

If this argument has to be accepted, then the KP governor should be asked why he has given an election date a month after Punjab’s date.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said earlier this week that his party would take part in the April 30 elections, in an apparent attempt to show his party’s seriousness. Instead, it has only added to the confusion, with the party’s chief organizer Maryam Nawaz recently stating elections would only be held after allegations against her London-based father and party supremo, Nawaz Sharif, were overturned and when ex-PM Imran Khan was brought to the dock. 

As a move to attract voters, the PDM has announced that 15 million poor people in Punjab will be given free wheat flour during Ramadan, and motorbikes and rickshaws will be provided subsidized petrol during the holy month.

Although this will give relief to the poor, opponents may raise objections, and say such bait and incentives are not permissible during the election period. 

Then there are still more factors that raise doubts about the elections in Punjab.

One of them is the popularity of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf Chairman Imran Khan. A recent survey conducted by Gallup says Khan is popular among 61 percent of the people, while Prime Minister Shehbaz has a popularity rating of just 32 percent.

According to the survey, with huge gaps in popularity ratings between Khan and the rest of the PDM leadership, the ruling coalition cannot afford to agree to immediate elections, notwithstanding their claims to the contrary.

As for the arrangements for the polls, the election commissioner of Punjab said this week, that security and election staff are not being provided for the exercise. Unless both are addressed, he said, elections simply cannot be held.

Preparations for the elections in KP will be reviewed on Friday.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s top intelligence agency has suggested the exercise be delayed by three to four months.

So, what will it be and is there any end in sight to the election chaos looming over the horizon? We will know when we know. Until the process is completed, the clouds of uncertainty will continue to hover in Pakistan’s unending dark skies. 

- The writer is a senior and veteran journalist with a career spanning 40 years with major national and international newspapers.