Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq

Members of the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service cheer as they carry upside-down the black flag of Daesh, with the destroyed Al-Nuri mosque seen in the background, in the Old City of Mosul on July 2, 2017. (AFP)
Short Url
Updated 22 March 2023
Follow

Why Daesh is still not a spent force despite facing terminal decline in Iraq

  • Unable to attract new recruits or mount significant attacks, analysts say the group is a spent force in Iraq
  • Western military leaders fear Daesh prisoners held in Syria could pose threat as an ‘army in detention’

IRBIL, KURDISTAN: Having once controlled roughly a third of the country at the height of its power, including several major cities and oilfields, there are now growing signs that what remains of the Daesh terrorist organization in Iraq is in terminal decline.

Unable to attract new recruits to shore up its dwindling numbers, nor able to mount significant offensive operations, the group that had in 2014 proclaimed its own “caliphate” today looks like a spent force — in Iraq at least.

On March 12, Iraqi General Qais Al-Mohamadawi revealed that Daesh has about 500 active militants remaining in the country. However, he stressed that they are confined to remote desert areas and mountains and have lost their “ability to attract new recruits.”

The following day, the US-led coalition tweeted that Daesh networks “remain under intense pressure,” with the Iraqi Security Forces and the Kurdish Peshmerga having “removed from the battlefield at least 55” of the militants in February alone. 

Joel Wing, author of the “Musings on Iraq” blog and who tracks security incidents in Iraq attributed to Daesh, recently wrote that recorded incidents from the start of March are a reminder that Daesh is in its “death throes in Iraq” and “remains barely active in the country.”

Only three incidents were attributed to Daesh in the first week of March, down from eight in the last week of February. Furthermore, since the start of 2023, eight out of nine weeks have witnessed security incidents in the single digits, which Wing says continues a trend that began in 2022, when the majority of weeks saw fewer than ten attacks. 




An Iraqi fighter flashes the sign for victory on top of an armed vehicle in the village of Albu Ajil, Tikrit, on March 8, 2015, during a military operation to regain control of the Tikrit area from Daesh militants. (AFP)

“I don’t see a Daesh revival any time soon,” Wing told Arab News, using another name for Daesh. “They’ve had five years to recover from their defeat in Mosul and all signs point to the group getting weaker, not stronger.”

Mosul is Iraq’s second city and the largest urban center the group annexed into its self-styled caliphate, which, at the height of its power in the mid-2010s, covered about one-third of Iraq and one-third of Syria. 

Iraqi forces recaptured Mosul with the support of the US-led coalition in July 2017 after months of intense fighting. Iraq declared victory over the group the following December. 

Having lost its territorial caliphate, Daesh mounted an insurgency from rural and mountainous redoubts. For years, there were fears that the group had reverted to its pre-2014 status as an insurgent threat and could one day retake significant swathes of territory. 

It now seems that dire prospect is a remote one.

“They haven’t been able to recruit many new Iraqis to their cause,” Wing said. “Their main activities appear to be trying to smuggle members and their families from Syria into Iraq and protecting the rural areas they control. There are hardly any offensive operations and they are completely absent from Iraq’s urban centers.”

And while Daesh could feasibly continue in this state for years to come, since there are few people and a minimal government presence in the areas where they operate, Wing says that they have “little to no effect upon Iraq anymore.”

Michael Knights, the Jill and Jay Bernstein Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, sees two different scenarios potentially unfolding. 

“If current trends continue, Daesh is headed in the same direction as Algeria’s terrorist groups — disintegration into criminal gangs, inability to destabilize the country, and occasional terrorist outrages that are easy to quickly forget,” he told Arab News, using another acronym for Daesh. 

“The question is whether — as in 2011-2014 — the Iraqi government will politicize the security forces and adopt a sectarian agenda, thus breathing life back into Daesh,” he said. 

The government of former prime minister Nouri Al-Maliki adopted just such an agenda after the US withdrew the last of its troops from Iraq in 2011. Consequently, when Daesh entered Mosul in June 2014, the ISF infamously did not fight, despite having vastly superior numbers. 




The destroyed Al-Nuri mosque in the Old City of Mosul. (AFP)

Daesh invaded northern Iraq in 2014 after gaining a sizable foothold in Syria amid the chaos of that country’s brutal civil war. If the security situation in eastern Syria again deteriorates, there are fears this could reenergize diminished Daesh remnants in Iraq. 

After visiting prisons holding thousands of Daesh militants in northeast Syria earlier this month, General Michael Kurilla, head of the US military’s Central Command, CENTCOM, warned of a “looming threat” posed by these detainees.  

“Between those detained in Syria and Iraq, it is a veritable ‘ISIS army in detention,’” he said in a CENTCOM statement. “If freed, this group would pose a great threat regionally and beyond.”

The Al-Hol camp in eastern Syria also houses tens of thousands of the relatives of alleged Daesh militants, roughly half of whom are Iraqi citizens. 

In January 2022, Daesh detainees in Ghwayran prison in the northeast Syrian city of Hasakah rioted in coordination with an external attempt to free them, igniting 10 days of bitter fighting with Kurdish-led security forces. Daesh reportedly had similar plots for Al-Hol. 

“Sneaking people out of Al-Hol and getting them into Iraq is a major priority because they haven’t been able to bring many new people to their cause in Iraq,” said Wing. “So they’re relying upon getting their current members out of the Syrian camp to try to bolster their numbers, but it hasn’t added to their capabilities at all.”

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, emphasizes the importance of recalling the context in which Daesh initially emerged to “better understand the conditions that would allow it to return in the future.”

“ISIS emerged in a power vacuum, one first caused by the US invasion of Iraq and then the Syrian civil war that began in 2011,” Bohl told Arab News. “It was best able to grow and exploit local grievances for its radical agenda when its rivals were split and when it was not the focus of a major power, like the US, Turkiye, or Russia.

“Today, Iraq, despite deep political dysfunction and violence, is not nearly as divided as it was during the run-up to the Daesh blitz in 2014 into Iraq. Syria’s civil war has stabilized, leaving little room for them to grow there as well.”

Nevertheless, completely eradicating a group such as Daesh will remain a difficult, if not impossible, task for Iraqi authorities. 

“There will always be online recruitment and localized grievances that can turn into small cells or radicalized individual attackers,” Bohl said. “Iraq’s social contract also remains fractured, and until there is a strong, sustained governing consensus, radicalism of all stripes will find a home there.”




“Between those detained in Syria and Iraq it is a veritable ‘ISIS army in detention,’” said Gen. Michael Kurilla, Commander of US Central Command. (Supplied)

While he believes Syria is the most likely place from which Daesh can make a resurgence in the region, there would first have to be a strategic shift, such as a US withdrawal or some power vacuum caused by Damascus forcibly reestablishing its rule over the area. 

“Under those conditions, it would become possible for Daesh to retake some initiative in that area and use Syria’s northeast to attack Iraq,” he said. 

“However, it shouldn’t be entirely ruled out that Daesh could resurge in Iraq, particularly if political problems there grow so severe that it reignites sectarian war. 

“Under those (more remote) circumstances, Daesh would once again have a shot at restoring territorial control within Iraq, even if Syria remained stable.”

Knights also stresses that any chance of Daesh making a successful resurgence in Iraq depends on Baghdad’s management of its security forces. 

“Syria is like a freezer in which Daesh can hibernate, waiting for it to experience a springtime in Iraq,” he said. “If the Iraqi government mismanages the security file, then a cross-border pollination could start again.”

 


Trump says two weeks is ‘maximum’ for Iran decision

Updated 5 sec ago
Follow

Trump says two weeks is ‘maximum’ for Iran decision

MORRISTOWN, United States: President Donald Trump said Friday that Iran had a “maximum” of two weeks to avoid possible US air strikes, indicating he could take a decision before the fortnight deadline he set a day earlier.
Trump added that Iran “doesn’t want to talk to Europe,” dismissing the chance of success in talks between European powers and Iran in Geneva on resolving the conflict between Israel and Iran.
Trump also played down the possibility of asking Israel to halt its attacks, after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would not resume talks with the United States until Israel relented.
“I’m giving them a period of time, and I would say two weeks would be the maximum,” Trump told reporters when asked if he could decide to strike Iran before that.
He added that the aim was to “see whether or not people come to their senses.”
Trump had said in a statement on Thursday that he would “make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks” because there was a “substantial chance of negotiations” with Iran.
Those comments had been widely seen as opening a two-week window for negotiations to end the war between Israel and Iran, with the European powers rushing to talks with Tehran.
But his latest remarks indicated that Trump could still make his decision before that if he feels that there has been no progress toward dismantling Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump dismissed the chances of Europe making a difference, saying the talks between Britain, France, Germany and EU diplomats and Tehran’s foreign minister “didn’t help.”
“Iran doesn’t want to speak to Europe. They want to speak to us. Europe is not going to be able to help in this,” Trump told reporters as he arrived in Morristown, New Jersey.
Asked if he would ask Israel to stop its attacks as Iran had asked, Trump said it was “very hard to make that request right now.”
“If somebody’s winning, it’s a little bit harder to do than if somebody’s losing, but we’re ready, willing and able, and we’ve been speaking to Iran, and we’ll see what happens.”

In Istanbul, top Arab League diplomats discuss Iran-Israel war

Updated 33 min 19 sec ago
Follow

In Istanbul, top Arab League diplomats discuss Iran-Israel war

  • The ministers were in Turkiye’s largest city on the eve of weekend gathering of the OIC
  • Some 40 top diplomats are slated to join the weekend gathering

ISTANBUL: Arab League foreign ministers gathered in Istanbul late Friday to discuss the escalating war between Iran and Israel, Turkish state news agency Anadolu said, quoting diplomatic sources.

The ministers were in Turkiye’s largest city on the eve of weekend gathering of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which was also slated to discuss the air war launched a week ago.

Israel began its assault in the early hours of June 13, saying Iran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons, triggering an immediate immediate retaliation from Tehran in the worst-ever confrontation between the two arch-rivals.

Some 40 top diplomats are slated to join the weekend gathering of the OIC which will also have a session dedicated to discussing the Iran-Israel crisis, the Turkish foreign ministry said.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who met with his counterparts from Britain, France and Germany in Geneva on Friday, will also attend and address the diplomats, the ministry said.

Earlier on Friday, Araghchi said Tehran was ready to “consider diplomacy” again only if Israel’s “aggression is stopped.”

The Arab League ministers were expected to release a statement following their meeting, Anadolu said.


US to move third aircraft carrier closer to Mideast conflict

Updated 35 min 4 sec ago
Follow

US to move third aircraft carrier closer to Mideast conflict

  • Navy official confirms USS Gerald R. Ford will depart for Europe next week
  • USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group already in Middle East, soon to be joined by USS Nimitz

WASHINGTON: The USS Gerald R. Ford will depart for Europe next week, a Navy official said Friday, placing a third American aircraft carrier in closer proximity to the Middle East as Israel and Iran trade strikes.
Israel launched an unprecedented air campaign against Iran last week, and US President Donald Trump has said he is weighing whether to join Israel in the fight.
“The Gerald Ford carrier strike group will depart Norfolk (Virginia) the morning of June 24 for a regularly scheduled deployment to the US European Command area of responsibility,” the Navy official said.
The USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group has been operating in the Middle East since earlier this year, taking part in an air campaign against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
And a US defense official has confirmed that Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth ordered the Nimitz carrier strike group to the Middle East, saying it was “to sustain our defensive posture and safeguard American personnel.”
Trump said Thursday he will decide whether to join Israel’s strikes on Iran within the next two weeks, citing a chance of negotiations to end the conflict.
That deadline comes after a tense few days in which the US president publicly mulled hitting Iran and said that Tehran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was an “easy target.”
Trump had spent weeks pursuing a diplomatic path toward a deal to replace the nuclear deal with Iran that he tore up in his first term in 2018, but has since backed Israel’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military top brass.
A key issue is that the United States is the only country with the huge “bunker buster” bombs that could destroy Iran’s crucial Fordo nuclear enrichment plant.
A number of key figures in his “Make America Great Again” movement have vocally opposed US strikes on Iran, and Trump’s promise to extract the United States from its “forever wars” in the Middle East played a role in his 2016 and 2024 election wins.


GCC chief hails UN adoption of landmark resolution on strategic cooperation

Updated 20 June 2025
Follow

GCC chief hails UN adoption of landmark resolution on strategic cooperation

  • Jasem Albudaiwi describes agreement between the organizations as a major step forward in deepening regional and international collaboration
  • Its adoption reflects the respected status of the GCC as a proactive regional partner in efforts to support global peace and security, he adds

RIYADH: The secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council, Jasem Albudaiwi, on Friday welcomed the adoption by the UN General Assembly of a landmark resolution on collaboration between the organizations.

He described the agreement, formally titled “Cooperation between the United Nations and the Gulf Cooperation Council” and the first of its kind, as a major step forward in deepening regional and international collaboration, the Saudi Press Agency reported.

The resolution, adopted on Monday, was submitted to the UN on behalf of GCC member states by Kuwait, which currently holds the presidency of the regional organization.

Albudaiwi said its adoption reflects the respected status of the GCC as a proactive regional partner in efforts to support global peace and security. It signifies a new phase of strategic partnership between the organizations, he added, underscored by concrete plans and activities to enhance cooperation.

He praised Kuwait for the diplomatic efforts of the nation’s mission to the UN in New York, and said the success of the resolution embodies the spirit of unity within the GCC and its commitment to working constructively with international partners across multilateral platforms.


19 injured in Israeli port after Iran missile barrage

Updated 20 June 2025
Follow

19 injured in Israeli port after Iran missile barrage

  • Projectile slammed into an area by the docks in Haifa on Friday afternoon

JERUSALEM: At least 19 people were injured in the northern Israeli port city of Haifa as Iran fired a fresh barrage of missiles on Friday afternoon, authorities said.
Iran has been launching daily missile salvos at Israel for the past week since a wide-ranging Israeli attack on its nuclear and military facilities triggered war.
One projectile slammed into an area by the docks in Haifa on Friday afternoon where it damaged a building and blew out windows, littering the ground with rubble, AFP images showed.
Israel’s foreign ministry said it struck “next to” the Al-Jarina mosque.
The locations of missile strikes in Israel are subject to strict military censorship rules and are not always provided in detail to the public.
A spokesman for Haifa’s Rambam hospital said 19 people had been injured in the city, with one in a serious condition.
A military official said that “approximately 20 missiles were launched toward Israel” in the latest Iranian salvo.
More than 450 missiles have been fired at the country so far, along with about 400 drones, according to Israel’s National Public Diplomacy Directorate.
The directorate added that the country’s tax authority had received over 25,000 claims linked to damage caused to buildings during the war.
Israel launched a massive wave of strikes on June 13, triggering an immediate retaliation from Tehran.
Residential areas in both countries have suffered, while Israel and Iran have traded accusations of targeting civilians.
At least 25 people have been killed in Israel by Iranian missile strikes, according to authorities.
Iran said on Sunday that Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people, including military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians. It has not updated the toll since.