High time to emphasize positive side of migration, IOM chief Antonio Vitorino tells Arab News

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Updated 03 April 2023
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High time to emphasize positive side of migration, IOM chief Antonio Vitorino tells Arab News

  • Benefits of human flows often overlooked amid polarizing debate, according to director general of International Organization for Migration
  • Vitorino made the comments on the occasion of International Dialogue on Migration, a contribution of IOM to the upcoming 2023 SDG Summit

NEW YORK CITY: Migration is as old as humanity itself. Like birds, human beings are said to be a migratory species. Across all eras of human history, they have been inclined to wander away from home, driven by various motives, but always with some idea of a better life.

While migration has emerged as a prominent international and national policy issue, the public discourse on migrants has increasingly become polarized. The toxicity of the migration debate has intensified over the past few years, with the politics of fear and division setting the tone for discussions.




French rightists protest on February 25, 2023 in Saint-Brevin-les Pins, western France, against the establishment of a reception center for migrants. (AFP file)

Extremist politicians around the world deploy disruption and disinformation as tools to retain power, exploiting migrants for far-right xenophobic agendas.

Amid often negatively skewed discussions on migration and migrants, the many ways in which migrants contribute to societies is often overlooked. One can lose sight of the dynamism of migrants globally. They are overrepresented in innovation and patents, arts and sciences awards, start-ups and successful companies.

Antonio Vitorino aimed to bring these contributions to the forefront at the International Dialogue on Migration, or IDM, a biannual event that took place in New York on March 30-31, as part of the International Organization for Migration’s contribution to the 2023 SDG Summit in September.

The event brought together governments, youth representatives, civil society, local authorities and community representatives, UN agencies and experts to assess how the positive impacts of human mobility can be harnessed to attain the SDGs.




IOM Director General Antonio Vitorino says that while migration brings challenges, it is also a catalyst for economic growth. (AFP file)

“Migration is a fact of life. There have always been migrants everywhere,” Vitorino, a Portuguese lawyer and politician who took over as the director-general of IOM in October 2018, said during an interview with Arab News in New York City.

“We are very much used to seeing migration as a problem. There are challenges to migration, I don’t deny that. But I think the time has come for us to be more adamant in emphasizing the positive side of migration.”

FASTFACTS

Currently, there are about 281 million living in a country other than their countries of birth, or 3.6 percent of the global population — that is, only 1 in 30 people.

More than 100 million of those were forcibly displaced by conflict, persecution, poverty, climate disaster.

Most frequently, reasons underpinning migration are a complex combination of altered rainfall, armed conflict and a failure of government institutions and support.

Out of the 15 most vulnerable countries to climate change, 13 are witnessing an armed conflict.

 

The list of contributions of migrants is long indeed.

“During the COVID-19 pandemic, who was on the front line?” Vitorino said. “Who was delivering the services and the food while many societies were locked out? Migrants were there on the front line.

“Look to the health system. Even in the developed world, many of the health care workers are migrants or of migrant origin.

“I do believe that migrants have a key role to play as entrepreneurs. When someone migrates, there is a strong will for winning, for confronting the new environment, and for making the best for the migrant (and) their family but also for the society in which they are working.




Migrant farm workers from Mexico pick spinach near a mobile clinic van near Wellington, Colorado, US. (AFP file)

“They are workers. They are consumers. They pay taxes. And this positive side of migration is not very often highlighted.”

Money sent home by migrants is a significant part of international capital flows. Remittances compete with international aid as one of the largest financial inflows to developing countries.

According to the World Bank, they are playing a large role in contributing to economic growth and to the livelihoods of many countries.




Asian workers at a construction site in Dubai. Many in the UAE’s labor force are migrants. (AFP file)

About $800 billion are transferred by migrants each year directly to families or communities in their countries of origin. This number does not capture unrecorded flows, so the magnitude of global remittances is likely to be much larger. They are often a lifeline for the poorest households, allowing them to meet their basic needs.

“There are countries where 10 percent, 20 percent, even 30 percent of their GDP depend on the remittances from the migrants and the diaspora,” said Vitorino.

“And now with the war in Ukraine and the (resultant) rise in food prices, remittances are used by the families in the countries of origin, mainly to buy food, (and pay for) education and housing.”

“So, it’s a contribution to the social stability and to the development of the countries of origin.

“But we are not just talking about money. We’re talking about something much, much more important, which is the link between the diaspora and the countries of origin: Family relations, friends. Migrants that come back to the country of origin, even for a limited period of a few months, transfer knowledge to their countries, expertise, and sometimes even technology.

“And that two-way flow is very positive also for the development of the countries of origin.”




Migrants from the Middle East and Asia receiving provisions at a migrant camp operated by the International Organization for Migrations near the Bosnian town of Bihac
in 2021. (AFP file)

IOM is attempting to make the case for integrating migrants into host societies. Vitorino acknowledges the complexity of the issue, which requires public policies, the engagement of civil society and local authorities. It involves the workplace, the school for the children, access to health and social security services.

“That is always challenging,” he said, “but that is where you win integration, and you take the best of migrants to the development of the host communities.”

Economic impacts vary across countries. And while migration brings challenges, there is broad consensus among economists that immigration is also a catalyst for economic growth and confers net benefits on destination countries as well.

In 2015, people on the move contributed more than 9 percent, or $6.7 trillion, to global GDP.

The response to the COVID-19 pandemic, involving drastic restrictions on freedom of movement all around the world, has resulted in an unprecedented decrease in world trade and economic growth.




Migrants face-off with Moroccan riot police in the northern town of Fnideq, close to the border between Morocco and Spain's North African enclave of Ceuta on May 19, 2021. (AFP file)

That demonstrated that “if there is no human mobility, there will be a negative impact on economic growth. That’s why migration is very much aligned with different SDGs.”

The potential role of migrants in achieving the UN SDGs cannot be underestimated, IDM says.

Leaving no one behind being key to it, the 2030 SDGs agenda represented a major leap forward for migration where the latter figured not merely as a core development issue on its own, but also as a cross-cutting one that is intricately related to all other goals.

Vitorino said that the pandemic, for instance, demonstrated that excluding migrants from health coverage — SDG 3 being ensuring health and well-being for all — creates a problem for the entire community because the virus will tend to proliferate in those marginalized migrant communities.




A photo taken on February 26, 2022, shows people fleeing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine descending from a ferry boat to enter Romania. Over 8.1 million refugees fleeing Ukraine have been recorded across Europe, while an estimated 8 million others had been displaced within the country by late May 2022. (AFP file)

“Therefore, I think that the SDGs are a key guideline for us all. (On) the question of health coverage, it is very important that we guarantee that wherever they are, in countries of origin or countries of destination, migrants have access to health care. This is a fundamental right. It is inherent to the dignity of human beings irrespective of their legal status.”

Despite IOM’s efforts, “unfortunately, there is still a very uneven panorama about vaccination. The developed world has rates of vaccination around 70 percent and the low-income countries are still around 20 percent. This is an issue of concern to us. And this definitely something that does not help to fulfill the objectives of the 2030 agenda,” said Vitorino.

He visited Turkiye to oversee the organization’s operations following the Feb. 6 twin earthquakes; he said he had never seen anything like it.

“Nothing I’ve been in, theaters of war, even recently in Ukraine, (compares with) the degree of destruction and devastation that I witnessed in Turkiye.

“I see a city of 200,000 people totally smashed by the fury of the earthquake. The fury of nature should make us think very carefully about the frequency and the intensity of these natural hazards that are also related to climate change.”




Hundreds of thousands of people in Turkiye and Syria had been rendered homeless and without livelihood by the massive earthquakes that hit southern Turkiye on February 6, 2023. (AFP file)

It is difficult to isolate climate factors from other social, economic, political and security ones underpinning migration.

Climate change intersects also with conflict and security. The Syrian civil war, where exceptional drought contributed to population movements toward urban areas that were not addressed by the political regime, illustrates this connection.

The World Bank estimates that 143 million people could be moving within their own countries by 2050 because of extreme weather events in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America, in the absence of urgent global and national climate action.

Researchers highlight that an increase in temperatures could lead to growing asylum applications to the EU.




Undocumented Nicaraguan migrant workers carry their belongings as they are led from a sugar cane field by Honduran immigration officers. (AFP file)

Drought and desertification, heat waves and sea-level rise will cause depletion of ecosystems ranging from water shortages to loss of arable land, leading to conflicts over scare natural resources. The threats to human security might in turn drive people to migrate in search of alternative income and ways to meet their basic needs.

“Sometimes you have people displaced because of drought, and (others) because of floods, at the same time, in the same country,” said Vitorino.

“Look to Central America where the El Nino is changing the production of coffee and cocoa and people are deprived of their traditional agricultural means. They move to the cities. And if they don’t find solutions in the cities, they go on moving, usually toward the United States.

“My theory is to say we need to act to build the adaptation and resilience of those communities because they do not want to move. They are forced to move. And we need to support them to find the means of adapting to climate change.

“And also if they are forced to move, such as, for instance, in some Pacific islands that are going to unfortunately disappear because of sea-level rise, we need to make it safe, orderly and regular.”

IOM estimates that since 2014, about 55,000 migrants have died or disappeared. Of those, about 8,000 were en route to the US. They perished in accidents or while traveling in subhuman conditions.

The fire that killed dozens of people at an immigration processing center in Ciudad Juarez on the border with Texas on the night of March 27 was only the latest chapter in a continuing tragedy. A surveillance video has shown immigration agents walking away from the trapped detainees as the flames were engulfing them.

In 2022, 2,062 migrants died while crossing the Mediterranean Sea. Between 2014 and 2018, for instance, the bodies of about 12,000 people who drowned were never found.

Vitorino laments the recent increase seen in the number of irregular migrants moving around the world.

“We need to have a holistic approach to these movements and understand that you cannot just deal with one of the reasons without taking into consideration the other reasons,” he said, adding that “the need to preserve human lives and prevent deaths is a priority.”

IDM, he said, will provide conclusions that will feed into the report of the secretary general next year about the implementation of the Global Compact on Migration.

“We need evidence-based policies based on reliable and effective data. We need to guarantee the role of youth, particularly in the fight against climate change. We need to make sure that migrants are fully included in the health coverage, a critical issue to succeed in the SDGs.

“And we need to mobilize the diaspora to the development of the countries of origin.

“Those are the key messages that I hope from the IDM.”

 


Trump to hold call with Putin in push for Ukraine ceasefire

Updated 19 May 2025
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Trump to hold call with Putin in push for Ukraine ceasefire

  • Says he would also speak to Ukraine's President Zelensky and NATO officials
  • Trump has repeatedly stressed that he wants to see an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump will hold a phone call with Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Monday as part of his long-running effort to end the war set off by Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Trump had vowed during the US election campaign to halt the conflict within a day of taking office, but his diplomatic efforts have so far yielded little progress.
Delegations from Russia and Ukraine held direct negotiations in Istanbul last week for the first time in almost three years, but the talks ended without a commitment to a ceasefire.
Both sides traded insults, with Ukraine accusing Moscow of sending a “dummy” delegation of low-ranking officials.
After the negotiations, Trump announced that he would speak by phone with the Russian president in a bid to end the “bloodbath” in Ukraine, which has destroyed large swathes of the country and displaced millions of people.
Trump also said he would speak to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO officials, expressing hope that a “ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war... will end.”
Since taking office in January, Trump has repeatedly stressed that he wants to see an end to the conflict, and has recently backed calls for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
So far, he has mainly focused on upping the pressure on Ukraine and abstained from criticizing Putin.
Both Moscow and Washington have previously stressed the need for a meeting on the conflict between Putin and Trump.
The US president has also argued that “nothing’s going to happen” on the conflict until he meets Putin face-to-face.

At the talks in Istanbul, which were also attended by US officials, Russia and Ukraine agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners each and trade ideas on a possible truce, but with no concrete commitment.
Ukraine’s top negotiator, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, said that the “next step” would be a meeting between Putin and Zelensky.
Russia said it had taken note of the request.
“We consider it possible, but only as a result of the work and upon achieving certain results in the form of an agreement between the two sides,” the Kremlin’s spokesperson said.
Ukraine’s western allies have since accused Putin of deliberately ignoring calls for a ceasefire and pushed for fresh sanctions against Russia.
The leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Italy held a phone call with Trump on Sunday.
“Looking ahead to President Trump’s call with President Putin tomorrow, the leaders discussed the need for an unconditional ceasefire and for President Putin to take peace talks seriously,” said a spokesman for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
“They also discussed the use of sanctions if Russia failed to engage seriously in a ceasefire and peace talks,” the spokesman said.
Zelensky also discussed possible sanctions with US Vice President JD Vance when they met after Pope Leo’s inaugural mass at the Vatican on Sunday.
“We discussed the talks in Istanbul, where the Russians sent a low-level delegation with no decision-making powers,” Zelensky wrote on Telegram following the meeting.
“We also touched on the need for sanctions against Russia, bilateral trade, defense cooperation, the situation on the battlefield and the future exchange of prisoners.”
A senior Ukrainian official from the president’s office, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told AFP that they had also discussed preparations for Monday’s telephone conversation between Trump and Putin.

It was the first meeting between Zelensky and Vance since their heated White House exchange in February.
In the Oval Office, Vance publicly accused Zelensky of being “disrespectful” toward Trump, who told the Ukrainian leader he should be more grateful and that he had no “cards” to play in negotiations with Russia.
Ukraine on Sunday said that Russia had launched a record number of drones at the country overnight, targeting various regions, including the capital Kyiv, where a woman was killed.
Another man was killed in the southeastern Kherson region, where a railway station and private houses and cars were hit.
In an interview with Russian state TV published on Sunday, Putin said that Moscow’s aim was to “eliminate the causes that triggered this crisis, create the conditions for a lasting peace and guarantee Russia’s security,” without elaborating further.
Russia’s references to the “root causes” of the conflict typically refer to grievances with Kyiv and the West that Moscow has put forward as justification for launching the invasion in February 2022.
They include pledges to “de-Nazify” and demilitarise Ukraine, protect Russian speakers in the country’s east, push back against NATO expansion and stop Ukraine’s westward geopolitical drift.
However, Kyiv and the West say that Russia’s invasion is an imperial-style land grab.


Trump to carry out tariff threats if nations don’t negotiate in ‘good faith,’ US treasury chief warns

Updated 19 May 2025
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Trump to carry out tariff threats if nations don’t negotiate in ‘good faith,’ US treasury chief warns

  • Bessent: Notified countries likely to see April 2 rates return
  • Says Trump administration was focused on its 18 most important trading relationships

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump will impose tariffs at the rate he threatened last month on trading partners that do not negotiate in “good faith” on deals, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in television interviews on Sunday.
He did not say what would constitute “good faith” negotiations or clarify the timing to announce any decisions to return a country to the various rates Trump initially imposed on April 2.
Trump has repeatedly reversed course since then, notably on April 9, when he lowered his tariff rates on most imported goods to 10 percent for 90 days to give negotiators time to hash out deals with other countries. He separately lowered the rate for Chinese goods to 30 percent. On Friday, he reiterated that his administration would send letters telling nations what their rates would be.
On Sunday, Bessent said the administration was focused on its 18 most important trading relationships and that the timing of any deals would also depend on whether countries were negotiating in good faith, with letters going out to those that did not.
“This means that they’re not negotiating in good faith. They are going to get a letter saying, ‘Here is the rate.’ So I would expect that everyone would come and negotiate in good faith,” he told NBC News’ “Meet the Press.”
He added that those countries that are notified would likely see their rates return to the levels set on April 2.
Asked when any trade deals could be announced, Bessent separately told CNN’s “State of the Union” program: “Again, it will depend on whether they’re negotiating in good faith.”
“My other sense is that we will do a lot of regional deals -this is the rate for Central America. This is the rate for this part of Africa,” he added.
Trump’s ongoing trade wars have severely disrupted global trade flows and roiled financial markets as investors grapple with what Bessent has called the Republican president’s “strategic uncertainty,” in his drive to reshape economic relationships in the US’ favor
Companies of all sizes have been whipsawed by Trump’s swift imposition of tariffs and sudden reversals as they seek to manage supply chains, production, staffing and prices. Congress is also grappling with the tariffs as it weighs revenues and tax cuts in its spending bill.
Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, last week said it would have to start raising prices later in May due to the high costs of tariffs, prompting Trump to slam the company for blaming the increases on his trade policies.
“Between Walmart and China they should, as is said, ‘EAT THE TARIFFS,’ and not charge valued customers ANYTHING,” Trump posted online on Saturday.
Bessent said he had spoken to Walmart CEO Doug McMillon on Saturday and that the company would absorb some tariffs. Representatives for the retailer declined to comment.
“Walmart is, in fact, going to ... eat some of the tariffs,” Bessent told NBC. “I didn’t apply any pressure.”


Britain poised to reset trade and defense ties with EU

Updated 19 May 2025
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Britain poised to reset trade and defense ties with EU

  • Starmer taking a political risk with closer EU ties
  • Deal likely to cover defense, trade, fish

LONDON Britain is poised to agree the most significant reset of ties with the European Union since Brexit on Monday, seeking closer collaboration on trade and defense to help grow the economy and boost security on the continent.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who backed remaining in the EU, has made a bet that securing tangible benefits for Britons will outweigh any talk of “Brexit betrayal” from critics like Reform UK leader Nigel Farage when he agrees closer EU alignment at a summit in London.
Starmer will argue that the world has changed since Britain left the bloc in 2020, and at the heart of the new reset will be a defense and security pact that could pave the way for British defense companies to take part in a 150 billion euros ($167 billion) program to rearm Europe.
The reset follows US President Donald Trump’s upending of the post-war global order and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which have forced governments around the world to rethink ties on trade, defense and security. Britain struck a full trade deal with India earlier this month and secured some tariff relief from the United States. The EU has also accelerated efforts to forge trade deals with the likes of India and deepen partnerships with countries including Canada, Australia, Japan and Singapore.
Negotiations between the two sides continued into Sunday evening, before European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa were due in London on Monday morning. One EU diplomat cautioned that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.” From the issues up for discussion, Britain is hoping to drastically reduce the border checks and paperwork slowing down UK and EU food and agricultural exports, while access to faster e-gates for UK travelers at EU airports would be hugely popular.
In return, Britain is expected to agree to a limited youth mobility scheme and could participate in the Erasmus+ student exchange program. France also wants a long-term deal on fishing rights, one of the most emotive issues during Brexit.

Limited room for maneuver
Britain’s vote to leave the EU in a historic referendum in 2016 revealed a country that was badly divided over everything from migration and sovereignty of power to culture and trade.
It helped trigger one of the most tumultuous periods in British political history, with five prime ministers holding office before Starmer arrived last July, and poisoned relations with Brussels.
Polls show a majority of Britons now regret the vote although they do not want to rejoin. Farage, who campaigned for Brexit for decades, leads opinion polls in Britain, giving Starmer limited room for maneuver.
But the prime minister and French President Emmanuel Macron have struck up a solid relationship over their support for Ukraine, and Starmer was not tainted with the Brexit rows that went before, helping to improve sentiment.

‘Break the taboo’
The economic benefit will be limited by Starmer’s promise to not rejoin the EU’s single market or customs union, but he has instead sought to negotiate better market access in some areas — a difficult task when the EU opposes so-called “cherry picking” of EU benefits without the obligations of membership.
Removing red tape on food trade will require Britain to accept EU oversight on standards, but Starmer is likely to argue that it is worth it to help lower the cost of food, and grow the sluggish economy.
Agreeing a longer-term fishing rights deal will also be opposed by Farage, while the opposition Conservative Party labelled Monday’s event as the “surrender summit.”
One trade expert who has advised politicians in both London and Brussels said the government needed to “break the taboo” on accepting EU rules, and doing so to help farmers and small businesses was smart.
Trade experts also said Britain benefited from the greater focus on defense, making the deal look more reciprocal, and said improved ties made sense in a more volatile world.
When “trade disruption is so visible and considerable” anything that reduced trade friction with a country’s biggest trading partner made sense, said Allie Renison, a former UK government trade official at consultancy SEC Newgate.

 


Ruling party tops Portugal polls marked by far-right surge

Updated 19 May 2025
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Ruling party tops Portugal polls marked by far-right surge

  • Near complete official results showed PM Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance (AD) captured 32.7 percent of the vote
  • AD gets 89 of parliament's 230 seats, which is short of the 116 seats required for a ruling majority

LISBON: Portugal’s incumbent center-right party won the most seats in the country’s third general election in three years on Sunday but again fell short of a parliamentary majority, while support for the far-right Chega rose.
The outcome threatens to extend political instability in the NATO and European Union member state as the bloc faces growing global trade tensions and works to strengthen its defenses.
Near complete official results showed that Prime Minister Luis Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance (AD) captured 32.7 percent of the vote in Sunday’s poll with the Socialist Party (PS) and Chega virtually tied in second place.
That would boost the AD’s seat tally in the 230-seat parliament to 89, short of the 116 seats required for a ruling majority.
The Socialists had 23.4 percent, their worst result in decades, trailed closely by Chega (“Enough“) with 22.6 percent wich would give each party 58 seats.
Even with the backing of upstart business-friendly party Liberal Initiative (IL) which won nine seats, the AD would still need the support of Chega to reach a majority to pass legislation.
But Montenegro, 52, a lawyer by profession, has refused any alliance with Chega, saying it is “unreliable” and “not suited to governing.”
“It is not clear that there will be increased governability following these results,” University of Lisbon political scientist Marina Costa Lobo told AFP, calling Chega “the big winner of the night.”

Support for Chega has grown in every general election since the party was founded in 2019 by Andre Ventura, a former trainee priest who later became a television football commentator.
It won 1.3 percent of the vote in a general election in 2019, the year it was founded, giving it a seat in parliament — the first time a far-right party had won representation in Portugal’s parliament since a coup in 1974 toppled a decades-long rightist dictatorship.
Chega became the third-largest force in parliament in the next general election in 2022 and quadrupled its parliamentary seats last year to 50, cementing its place in Portugal’s political landscape.
Like other far-right parties that have gained ground across Europe, Chega has tapped into hostility to immigration and concerns over crime.
There are still four seats left to be assigned representing Portuguese who live abroad, but those results will not be known for days.
Sunday’s election was triggered after Montenegro lost a parliamentary vote of confidence in March after less than a year in power.
He called for the vote following allegations of conflicts of interest related to his family’s consultancy business, which has several clients holding government contracts.

Montenegro denied any wrongdoing, saying he was not involved in the day-to-day operations of the firm.
The AD formed a minority government after the last election. It passed a budget that raises pensions and public sector wages, and slashes income taxes for young people, because the PS abstained in key votes in parliament.
But relations between the two main parties soured after the confidence vote, and it is unclear if a weakened PS will be willing to allow the center-right to govern this time around.
Socialist leader Pedro Nuno Santos, a 48-year-old economist, had accused Montenegro of engineering the election “to avoid explaining himself” about the firm’s activities to a parliamentary enquiry.
After the results were announced, he said he would call an internal party election to pick a new leader.
Montenegro has criticized the immigration policies of the previous Socialist government, accusing it of leaving Portugal in “bedlam.”
Under the Socialist Party, Portugal became one of Europe’s most open countries for immigrants.
Between 2017 and 2024, the number of foreigners living in Portugal quadrupled, reaching about 15 percent of the total population.
Montenegro has since toughened immigration policy, and during the campaign his government announced the expulsion of some 18,000 irregular migrants, leading critics to accuse it of pandering to far-right voters.
 


Polish centrist’s narrow presidential lead leaves pro-EU path in balance

Updated 19 May 2025
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Polish centrist’s narrow presidential lead leaves pro-EU path in balance

  • Centrist and liberal left parties score lower than expected
  • Far-right voters to play crucial role in second round

WARSAW: Polish liberals performed worse than expected in a presidential election on Sunday, an exit poll showed, as Rafal Trzaskowski from ruling centrists Civic Coalition (KO) scraped to victory setting up a close fight for Warsaw’s pro-European path.
Trzaskowski placed first with 30.8 percent of the vote, ahead of Karol Nawrocki, the candidate backed by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party, who had 29.1 percent, according to an Ipsos exit poll. The gap was much narrower than the 4-7 percentage points seen in opinion polls before the vote.
If confirmed, the result would mean that Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will go head-to-head in a runoff vote on June 1 to determine whether Poland sticks firmly on the pro-European track set by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk or moves closer to nationalist admirers of US President Donald Trump.
“We are going for victory. I said that it would be close and it is close,” Trzaskowski told supporters. “There is a lot, a lot, of work ahead of us and we need determination.”

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, the presidential candidate of the Civic Coalition reacts to exit polls for the first round of Poland's presidential election, in Sandomierz, Poland, on May 18, 2025. (REUTERS)

Nawrocki also told supporters he was confident of victory in the second round and called on the far-right to get behind him and “save Poland.”
“We have to win these elections so that there is no monopoly of power of one political group, so that there is no monolithic power in Poland,” he said.
An Opinia24 poll for private broadcaster TVN published after the first round gave Trzaskowski 46 percent in the run-off and Nawrocki 44 percent, with 10 percent of voters either undecided or refusing to say.
Far-right candidates Slawomir Mentzen and Grzegorz Braun scored almost 22 percent combined, a historically high score.
Braun, who in 2023 used a fire extinguisher to put out Hanukkah candles in the country’s parliament, an incident that caused international outrage, won 6.2 percent of the vote according to the exit poll.
Mentzen stopped short of immediately endorsing Nawrocki.
“Voters... are not sacks of potatoes, they are not thrown from one place to another,” he said. “Each of our voters is a conscious, intelligent person and will make their own decision.”
Stanley Bill, Professor of Polish Studies at the University of Cambridge, said the combined strong showing of nationalist and far-right parties meant the results were “a disappointment for the Trzaskowski camp and put wind in the sails of Nawrocki.”
“I would add to this that the results are a significant blow to Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition,” Bill added. “Candidates representing parties that won 53.7 percent of the vote in the 2023 parliamentary elections won only 44.9 percent of the vote this evening.”
Turnout was 66.8 percent according to the exit poll.
The vote in Poland took place on the same day as a presidential run-off vote in Romania, in which centrist Bucharest mayor, Nicusor Dan, appeared on course to defeat Euroskeptic hard-right lawmaker George Simion.

Karol Nawrocki, presidential candidate for the 2025 Polish presidential election supported by Poland's national conservative Law and Justice party, wave to supporters as first exit polls following the presidential elections are announced in Gdansk, Poland, on May 18, 2025. ( AP Photo)

Presidential veto
In Poland, the president has the power to veto laws. A Trzaskowski victory in the second round would enable Tusk’s government to implement an agenda that includes rolling back judicial reforms introduced by PiS that critics say undermined the independence of the courts.
However, if Nawrocki wins, the impasse that has existed since Tusk became prime minister in 2023 would be set to continue. Until now, PiS-ally President Andrzej Duda has stymied Tusk’s efforts.
If the exit poll is confirmed, the other candidates in the first round, including Mentzen from the far-right Confederation Party, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia of the center-right Poland 2050 and Magdalena Biejat from the Left, will be eliminated.
Two updated polls that take into account partial official results will be published later in the evening and early on Monday morning.

Role in Europe
Trzaskowski has pledged to cement Poland’s role as a major player at the heart of European policymaking and work with the government to roll back PiS’s judicial changes.
Nawrocki’s campaign was rocked by allegations, which he denies, that he deceived an elderly man into selling him a flat in return for a promise of care he did not provide. But Trump showed support by meeting Nawrocki in the White House.
Nawrocki casts the election as a chance to stop Tusk achieving unchecked power and push back against liberal values represented by Trzaskowski, who as Warsaw mayor was a patron of LGBT marches and took down Christian crosses from public buildings.
Unlike some other euroskeptics in central Europe, Nawrocki supports military aid to help Ukraine fend off Russia. However, he has tapped into anti-Ukrainian sentiment among some Poles weary of an influx of refugees from their neighbor.
He has said Polish citizens should get priority in public services and criticized Kyiv’s attitude to exhumations of the remains of Poles killed by Ukrainian nationalists during World War Two.