THE HAGUE: An international arrest warrant for President Vladimir Putin raises the prospect of the man whose country invaded Ukraine facing justice, but it complicates efforts to end that war in peace talks.
Both justice and peace appear to be only remote possibilities today, and the conflicting relationship between the two is a quandary at the heart of a March 17 decision by the International Criminal Court to seek the Russian leader's arrest.
Judges in The Hague found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Putin and his commissioner for children’s rights were responsible for war crimes, specifically the unlawful deportation and unlawful transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia.
As unlikely as Putin sitting in a Hague courtroom seems now, other leaders have faced justice in international courts.
Former Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic, a driving force behind the Balkan wars of the 1990s, went on trial for war crimes, including genocide, at a United Nations tribunal in The Hague after he lost power. He died in his cell in 2006 before a verdict could be reached.
Serbia, which wants European Union membership but has maintained close ties to Russia, is one of the countries that has criticized the ICC's action. The warrants “will have bad political consequences” and create “a great reluctance to talk about peace (and) about truce” in Ukraine, populist Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said.
Others see consequences for Putin, and for anyone judged guilty of war crimes, as the primary desired outcome of international action.
“There will be no escape for the perpetrator and his henchmen," European Union leader Ursula von der Leyen said Friday in a speech to mark the one-year anniversary of the liberation of Bucha, the Ukraine town that saw some of the worst atrocities in the war. “War criminals will be held accountable for their deeds.”
Hungary did not join the other 26 EU members in signing a resolution in support of the ICC warrant for Putin. The government's chief of staff, Gergely Gulyas, said Hungarian authorities would not arrest Putin if he were to enter the country..
He called the warrants “not the most fortunate because they lead toward escalation and not toward peace.”
Putin appears to have a strong grip on power, and some analysts suspect the the warrant hanging over him could provide an incentive to prolong the fighting.
“The arrest warrant for Putin might undermine efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine,” Daniel Krcmaric, an associate professor of political science at Northwestern University, said in emailed comments to The Associated Press.
One potential way of easing the way to peace talks could be for the United Nations Security Council to call on the International Criminal Court to suspend the Ukraine investigation for a year, which is allowed under Article 16 of the Rome Statute treaty that created the court.
But that appears unlikely, said Krcmaric, whose book “The Justice Dilemma,” deals with the tension between seeking justice and pursuing a negotiated end to conflicts.
“The Western democracies would have to worry about public opinion costs if they made the morally questionable decision to trade justice for peace in such an explicit fashion,” he said, adding that Ukraine also is unlikely to support such a move.
Russia immediately rejected the warrants. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow doesn’t recognize the ICC and considers its decisions “legally void.” And Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, which is chaired by Putin, suggested the ICC headquarters on the Netherlands' coastline could become a target for a Russian missile strike.
Alexander Baunov, an analyst with the Carnegie Endowment, observed in a commentary that the arrest warrant for Putin amounted to “an invitation to the Russian elite to abandon Putin” that could erode his support.
While welcoming the warrants for Putin and his commissioner for children’s rights, rights groups also urged the international community not to forget the pursuit of justice in other conflicts.
“The ICC warrant for Putin reflects an evolving and multifaceted justice effort that is needed elsewhere in the world,” Human Rights Watch associate international justice director Balkees Jarrah said in a statement. “Similar justice initiatives are needed elsewhere to ensure that the rights of victims globally — whether in Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Myanmar, or Palestine — are respected.”
War-crimes warrant for Putin could complicate Ukraine peace
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War-crimes warrant for Putin could complicate Ukraine peace
- Putin appears to have a strong grip on power, and some analysts suspect the the warrant hanging over him could provide an incentive to prolong the fighting
Musk’s hand gesture during Trump inauguration festivities draws scrutiny
- Biting his bottom lip, he thumped his right hand over his heart, fingers spread wide, then extended his right arm out, emphatically, at an upward angle, palm down and fingers together
WASHINGTON: Billionaire Elon Musk’s hand gesture while he spoke during a celebration of President Donald Trump’s inauguration drew online comparisons to a Nazi salute on Monday, but a leading tracker of antisemitism said it appeared to represent a moment of enthusiasm instead.
Musk took the Capital One Arena stage in Washington to huge cheers, pumping his arms and shouting, “Yesssss.”
“This was no ordinary victory. This was a fork in the road of human civilization,” he said. “This one really mattered. Thank you for making it happen! Thank you,” he said.
Biting his bottom lip, he thumped his right hand over his heart, fingers spread wide, then extended his right arm out, emphatically, at an upward angle, palm down and fingers together. Then he turned and made the same hand gesture to the crowd behind him.
“My heart goes out to you. It is thanks to you that the future of civilization is assured,” he said as he finished the gesture.
The gestures were quickly scrutinized online.
“Did Elon Musk Sieg Heil at Trump’s inauguration?” asked the Jerusalem Post.
The Anti-Defamation League, which tracks antisemitism disagreed. “It seems that @elonmusk made an awkward gesture in a moment of enthusiasm, not a Nazi salute, but again, we appreciate that people are on edge,” it posted on Monday.
Spokespeople for Musk and Trump did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
Soon after his speech, Musk posted a Fox video clip of portions of his speech on his social media network X, that cut away from the podium when he made the first gesture while facing the cameras. “The future is so exciting,” he wrote above it.
Some X users came to Musk’s defense, claiming that Musk was expressing “my heart goes out to you” and criticizing posts that suggested otherwise.
Musk has backed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), an anti-immigration, anti-Islamic party labeled as right-wing-extremist by German security services, in an upcoming national election. He hosted a broadcast with the party’s leader on his social media platform earlier this month.
Trump withdraws from Paris climate agreement, again
- “The United States will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity,” Trump said
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump once again withdrew the United States from the Paris climate deal on Monday, removing the world’s biggest historic emitter from global efforts to fight climate change for the second time in a decade.
The move places the United States alongside Iran, Libya and Yemen as the only countries in the world outside the 2015 pact, in which governments agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
It reflects Trump’s skepticism about global warming, which he has called a hoax, and fits in with his broader agenda to unfetter US oil and gas drillers from regulation so they can maximize output.
Trump signed the executive order withdrawing from the pact in front of supporters gathered at the Capital One Arena in Washington.
“I’m immediately withdrawing from the unfair, one-sided Paris climate accord rip-off,” he said before signing the order.
“The United States will not sabotage our own industries while China pollutes with impunity,” Trump said.
Despite the withdrawal, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is confident that US cities, states and businesses “will continue to demonstrate vision and leadership by working for the low-carbon, resilient economic growth that will create quality jobs,” said associate UN spokesperson Florencia Soto Nino, in a written statement.
“It is crucial that the United States remains a leader on environmental issues,” she said. “The collective efforts under the Paris Agreement have made a difference but we need to go much further and faster together.”
The United States has to formally notify UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres of its withdrawal, which — under the terms of the deal — will take effect one year later.
The United States is already the world’s top producer of oil and natural gas thanks to a years-long drilling boom in Texas, New Mexico and elsewhere, fueled by fracking technology and strong global prices since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
SECOND US WITHDRAWAL
Trump also withdrew the US from the Paris deal during his first term in office, though the process took years and was immediately reversed by the Biden presidency in 2021. The withdrawal this time around is likely to take less time – as little as a year — because Trump will not be bound by the deal’s initial three-year commitment.
This time could also be more damaging to global climate efforts, said Paul Watkinson, a former climate negotiator and senior policy adviser for France.
The US is currently the world’s second-biggest greenhouse gas emitter behind China and its departure undermines global ambition to slash those emissions.
“It will be harder this time because we are in the thick of implementation, up against real choices,” Watkinson said.
The world is now on pace for global warming of more than 3 C by the end of the century, according to a recent United Nations report, a level scientists warn would trigger cascading impacts such as sea level rise, heat waves, and devastating storms.
Nations have already been struggling to make steep cuts to emissions required to lower the projected temperature increase, as wars, political tensions and tight government budgets push climate change down the list of priorities.
Trump’s approach cuts a stark contrast to that of former President Joe Biden, who wanted the United States to lead global climate efforts and sought to encourage a transition away from oil and gas using subsidies and regulations.
Trump has said he intends to unwind those subsidies and regulations to shore up the nation’s budget and grow the economy, but has said he can do that while ensuring clean air and water in the United States.
Li Shuo, an expert in climate diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said the US withdrawal risks undermining the United States’ ability to compete with China in clean energy markets such as solar power and electric vehicles.
“China stands to win, and the US risks lagging further behind,” he said.
Trump says he will pardon ‘a lot’ of people charged in Jan. 6 attack
- More than 1,580 people have been criminally charged with participating in the riot, a failed attempt by Trump supporters to block the congressional certification of the 2020 election
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump said on Monday he will pardon “a lot” of people charged in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol, moving to deliver on a promise often voiced on the campaign trail.
Speaking to supporters at Washington’s Capital One Arena, Trump did not specify how many people he planned to pardon.
A source familiar with his plans said earlier on Monday that Trump intends to cut short sentences for some people who attacked police and issue full pardons to people who did not commit violence.
More than 1,580 people have been criminally charged with participating in the riot, a failed attempt by Trump supporters to block the congressional certification of the 2020 election.
Leaders of the far-right Proud Boys and Oath Keepers organizations are among those serving time in federal prison for their roles in the violence. More than 600 people have been charged with assaulting or obstructing police during the riot, according to US Justice Department figures.
Trump vowed during his 2024 campaign to pardon many of those charged, arguing they had been treated unfairly by the legal system.
‘Extremely critical’ risk as winds whip fire-weary Los Angeles
Firefighters continued to make progress snuffing out fires that ravaged 40,000 acres (16,000 hectares) in the Los Angeles area, after erupting on January 7 and killing at least 27 people.
But a return of the hurricane-force winds responsible for spreading those initial fires threatened more danger.
Winds gusting up to 88 miles (142 kilometers) an hour have been recorded in some spots, where forecasters said they could combine with exceedingly dry conditions to create the potential for a fast-spreading fire.
“We’re expecting this to continue to create extremely critical fire weather conditions across the region,” Ariel Cohen, of the National Weather Service, (NWS) told AFP.
“Any fires that form could grow explosively. And so this is a particularly dangerous situation.”
Officials said they had pre-deployed engines and firefighters to areas at risk, after facing criticism that they were unprepared earlier this month.
“I believe that we will be very, very prepared for what the worst possible case scenario (could be) over the next couple of days, and then hopefully we don’t get there at all,” Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass told reporters.
The largest conflagration, the Palisades Fire, was 59 percent contained by Monday, and the area affected by evacuation orders has now shrunk to effectively match the fire’s footprint.
The Eaton Fire, which wrecked a large part of the Altadena area, was 87 percent surrounded.
As Los Angeles grapples with the scale of the devastation, political bickering has intensified.
Donald Trump, who was sworn in as US president on Monday, has said he will be visiting the fire-ravaged areas at the end of the week.
That trip could include an awkward encounter with California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has been the target of Trump’s barbs over his handling of the disaster.
He has falsely claimed that Newsom had blocked the diversion of “excess rain and snow melt from the North.”
In reality, Los Angeles’s water supplies are mainly fed via aqueducts and canals originating from entirely separate river basins further east.
Newsom — a longtime Trump foe, who some believe may have White House ambitions of his own — told US media over the weekend that sniping was detrimental to recovery efforts.
“What’s not helpful or beneficial... is these wild-eyed fantasies... that somehow there’s a magical spigot in northern California that just can be turned on, all of a sudden there will be rain or water flowing everywhere,” said Newsom.
The governor blamed Elon Musk — the Tesla and SpaceX owner poised to play a key role advising the incoming administration — “and others” for “hurricane-force winds of mis- and dis-information that can divide a country.”
Southern California has had no significant rain for around eight months, even though it is well into what is usually the rainy season.
Officials have cautioned that if that rain does materialize, it could create dangerous debris flows in the disaster zone, and spark mudflows and hill collapses.
Senate confirms Marco Rubio as secretary of state, giving Trump the first member of his Cabinet
WASHINGTON: The Senate quickly confirmed Marco Rubio as secretary of state Monday, voting unanimously to give President Donald Trump the first member of his new Cabinet on Inauguration Day.
Rubio, the Republican senator from Florida, is among the least controversial of Trump’s nominees and vote was decisive, 99-0. Another pick, John Ratcliffe for CIA director, is also expected to have a swift vote. Action on others, including former combat veteran and Fox News host Pete Hegseth for defense secretary, is expected later in the week.
“Marco Rubio is a very intelligent man with a remarkable understanding of American foreign policy,” Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, the senior-most Republican, said as the chamber opened.
It’s often tradition for the Senate to convene immediately after the ceremonial pomp of the inauguration to begin putting the new president’s team in place, particularly the national security officials. During Trump’s first term, the Senate swiftly confirmed his defense and homeland security secretaries on day one, and President Joe Biden’s choice for director of national intelligence was confirmed on his own Inauguration Day.
With Trump’s return to the White House, and his Republican Party controlling majorities in Congress, his outsider Cabinet choices are more clearly falling into place, despite initial skepticism and opposition from both sides of the aisle.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune moved quickly Monday, saying he expected voting to begin “imminently” on Trump’s nominees.
Democrats have calculated it’s better for them to be seen as more willing to work with Trump, rather than simply mounting a blockade to his nominees. They’re holding their opposition for some of his other picks who have less support, including Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence and vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for health secretary.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said his party will “neither rubber-stamp nominees we feel are grossly unqualified, nor oppose nominees that deserve serious consideration.”
Rubio, he said, is an example of “a qualified nominee we think should be confirmed quickly.”
Senate committees have been holding lengthy confirmation hearings on more than a dozen of the Cabinet nominees, with more to come this week. And several panels are expected to meet late Monday to begin voting to advance the nominees to the full Senate for confirmation.
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee advanced Rubio’s nomination late Monday. The Senate Armed Services Committee and Senate Intelligence Committee, respectively, advanced the nominations of Hegseth and Ratcliffe.
Rubio, a well-liked senator and former Trump rival during the 2016 presidential race, has drawn closer to the president in recent years. He appeared last week to answer questions before the Foreign Relations Committee, where he has spent more than a decade as a member.
As secretary of state, Rubio would be the nation’s top diplomat, and the first Latino to hold the position. Born in Miami to Cuban immigrants, he has long been involved in foreign affairs, particularly in South America, and has emerged as a hawk on China’s rise.
During his confirmation hearing last week, Rubio warned of the consequences of America’s “unbalanced relationship” with China. While he echoes Trump’s anti-globalist rhetoric, Rubio is also seen as an internationalist who understands the power of US involvement on the global stage.
Rubio is likely to win bipartisan support from both Republicans and Democrats. He would take over for outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has said he hopes the Trump administration continues Biden’s policies in the Middle East to end the war in Gaza and to help Ukraine counter Russian nomination.
The Senate is split 53-47, but the resignation of Vice President JD Vance drops the GOP majority to 52 until his successor arrives. Republicans need almost all every party member in line to overcome Democratic opposition to nominees.
Objection from any one senator, as is expected with Hegseth and several other choices, would force the Senate into procedural steps that would drag voting later into the week.
