The tangled web of Pakistan’s politics
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The web of Pakistan’s politics has become even more complex. The ongoing political crisis has pushed the country into a danger zone where state institutions are at loggerheads, caught in the crosshairs of confrontation between the government and opposition, and headed towards breakdown. At the same time the economy continues to be in the critical ward with a bailout agreement with the IMF still proving to be elusive. Political and economic uncertainty are taking a heavy toll on public confidence about the future. A Gallup-Pakistan opinion poll found that 90 percent of businesses surveyed felt the country was going in the wrong direction.
The latest twist in the political situation came with the Supreme Court judgement of April 4 in which it ordered elections to the Punjab provincial assembly to be held on May 14, holding the Election Commission’s earlier poll postponement to be unconstitutional and illegal. Ever since the provincial assemblies of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were dissolved by the opposition in a bid to force national elections – Imran Khan’s longstanding demand – the coalition government led by Shehbaz Sharif demurred over announcing a date for the polls. It ignored the constitutional stipulation to hold elections within 90 days of the provincial assemblies’ dissolution. Instead, it told the Election Commission that it could neither release funds needed for the polls nor assure security. The Commission then announced October 8 for the Punjab polls. This was challenged in the country’s apex court and a three-member bench then issued the verdict to hold elections in May.
The ruling coalition reacted furiously and declared it would not implement the Supreme Court’s decision and continued to call for a full bench of the court to deal with this matter. It was unprecedented in the country’s history for a verdict by the highest court, which is constitutionally and legally binding, to be defied. In fact, government leaders went further and called for the Chief Justice to step down. They sought to exploit differences that erupted among judges before, during and after the hearing of this constitutional case in what some legal experts called a judicial meltdown. Aggressive speeches in the National Assembly assailing the judgement were accompanied by the adoption of a resolution against the verdict which also urged the Prime Minister not to comply with it. Subsequently resolutions were passed that called for simultaneous holding of national and provincial elections. At the same time the government moved a money bill seeking the National Assembly’s authorization for funds to conduct provincial polls in accordance with the Supreme Court verdict. Meanwhile a joint session of Parliament also approved a bill that sought to curtail the powers of the chief justice.
Although both sides are loath to talk to each other, the only way out of the crisis is for them to find a credible interlocutor who can help them negotiate a mutually acceptable date for country-wide general elections.
Maleeha Lodhi
All this has left the country mired in a constitutional crisis that has come on the back of an escalating political crisis. This has heightened political uncertainty as there seems no way out of the crisis with both political sides having hardened their positions. Calls for a government-opposition dialogue by civil society and citizens groups have so far been spurned by the two political rivals. What would be the outcome of the government’s confrontation with the Supreme Court is an open question. But for now, bitter clashes between the country’s institutions have added a dangerous dimension to the crisis.
Never before has the country faced a crisis that has sucked in all state institutions with serious long-term implications for the political system. That too in the midst of the worst economic crisis Pakistan has confronted. Indeed, the security situation also seems to have aggravated. The meeting last week of the national security committee acknowledged the deterioration in the security situation and announced the launch of a renewed “multi-pronged and comprehensive” operation against terrorists and militants.
These developments not only underline the deepening crises raging in the country but have also laid bare the dilemma of how to address them in an environment of deep polarisation and prolonged political deadlock. While the government is adamant that general elections will only be held in October 2023 after parliament completes its full term in August, Imran Khan is unrelenting in his demand for immediate elections. Although both sides are loath to talk to each other, the only way out of the crisis is for them to find a credible interlocutor who can help them negotiate a mutually acceptable date for country-wide general elections.
Both the government and opposition should show leadership, responsibility and flexibility to come to such an agreement that can end the political chaos in the country. If an accord on a date for simultaneous provincial and national elections can be reached by the warring parties, the Supreme Court can be approached and conveyed the commonly agreed date. The Court will likely sanction such a consensual outcome. With the political and economic crisis putting the country’s stability at grave risk, a government formed by a fresh mandate may be the only way out of the current quagmire.
- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. Twitter @LodhiMaleeha
