Why Sudan’s transition from military rule to civilian-led democracy may have been doomed from the start

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Sudanese Armed Forces chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (left) and his deputy, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commander of the Rapid Support Forces. (AFP)
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Sudanese greet army soldiers loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan on April 16, 2023. (AFP)
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This handout satellite image courtesy of Maxar Technologies taken on April 17, 2023 shows smoke billowing from a building near the Khartoum International Airport. (Maxar Technologies via AFP)
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Vendors' stalls are abandoned along a street market in the south of Khartoum on April 17, 2023 as fighting in the Sudanese capital raged for a third day. (AFP)
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This handout satellite image courtesy of Maxar Technologies taken on April 17, 2023 shows destroyed fuel trucks at a fuel depot in Khartum amid fighting between Sudan's Armed Forces and the paramilitary RSF. (Maxar Technologies via AFP)
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Updated 24 April 2023
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Why Sudan’s transition from military rule to civilian-led democracy may have been doomed from the start

  • “You can’t have two armies and two competing generals in one desperate country,” says Sudan expert Eric Reeves
  • Analysts say the military rivalry sabotaged Sudan’s shift to civilian governance and economic recovery

LONDON: With at least 185 people killed during clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in recent days, the dreams of shift from military rule to civilian-led democracy have turned to dust, revealing that the transition plan was likely doomed from the start.

It is a far cry from the events of 2019, when the very forces now fighting one another worked together to oust the country’s autocratic ruler, Omar Al-Bashir. Analysts at that time described Sudan’s nascent transition to civilian-led democracy as a “glimmer of hope.”

“Most people are ignoring the ways in which the constitutional declaration of August 2019 set in place an unsustainable tension between the RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces, both of which were recognized as official armed forces of Sudan,” Eric Reeves, an academic with more than 25 years of experience researching the country, told Arab News.




Combo image showing Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (left) greeting a crowd in Khartoum's twin city of Omdurman on June 29, 2019 and RSF chief Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo greeting his supporters in Aprag village outside of Khartoum on June 22, 2019. (AFP & Reuters)

Now at loggerheads, Gen. Fattah Al-Burhan, head of the Armed Forces, leads the country’s transitional governing Sovereign Council, while his former deputy, Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, leads the RSF.

“The problem with this is you can’t have two armies and two competing generals in one desperate country and expect this (peaceful transition), especially with so many unhappy civilians who experienced catastrophic decline in the economy, who are suffering from a great deal of malnutrition and unemployment, and the list goes on,” said Reeves.

SUDAN UNREST:The Key Dates

April 11, 2019 Military coup ousts dictator Omar Al-Bashir following lengthy popular uprising.

Aug. 17, 2019 Ruling military council and civilian opposition alliance sign constitutional deal.

Oct. 3, 2020 Juba Peace Agreement signed between transitional government and alliance of armed groups.

Feb. 8, 2021 Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok announces new cabinet, including seven former rebel chiefs.

Oct. 25, 2021 Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan dissolves government, arrests Hamdok and seizes power.

Nov. 21, 2021 After months of pro-democracy mass rallies, Hamdok is reinstated but resigns within two months.

Oct. 25, 2022; Thousands take to the streets demanding civilian government.

Dec. 5, 2022 Political framework agreement signed by civilian leaders and military to launch two-year political transition.

April 15, 2023 Fighting breaks out between Al-Burhan’s forces and Rapid Support Forces led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

“You have as the head of state the heads of the two military operating organizations sanctioned by the Constitutional Declaration. Sooner or later, this was going to happen.”

The fighting in Sudan has aggravated an already dire humanitarian situation in the country. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, about 15.8 million Sudanese are in need of humanitarian aid — 10 million more than in 2017.




People queue for bread outside a bakery amidst a food crisis in the south of Khartoum on April 17, 2023 as fighting in the Sudanese capital rages for a third day. (AFP)

However, aid distribution has been disrupted in recent days after three World Food Programme employees were killed during the fighting, which caused the UN-backed body to halt operations, further exacerbating the effects of the severe malnutrition wreaking havoc on the country.

“We’re not talking about good and evil here, we’re talking about bad and worse,” said Reeves. “As long as there is rivalry between the two men, that rivalry will be at the expense of any chance of the Sudanese moving toward civilian governance or recovery from catastrophic economic collapse.”

After Al-Bashir was toppled in 2019, an October 2021 military coup dismantled all civilian institutions and overturned a power-sharing agreement that had been put in place. After a massive public outcry, military and civilian actors signed a framework agreement in December 2022 with a view to returning to the path toward civilian-led democracy.

However, a power struggle between the two main military actors in Sudan continued despite the framework agreement, which had stipulated that the RSF would be integrated into the Sudanese Armed Forces.

Al-Burhan’s Armed Forces had called for the integration to be completed over a period of two years, while Hemedti’s RSF was adamant it should take place over 10 years.

“The transitional process had been moving slowly (even) before the outbreak of the clashes,” Zouhir Shimale, head of research at Valent Projects, a media tech startup that specializes in addressing online manipulation, told Arab News.

“Many people thought that agreement was going to be signed and end in a political struggle after the October 2021 coup, especially because both military actors showed relative collaboration.”




Protesters took to the streets in Khartoum last October, demanding the leaders of the 2021 coup return power to a civilian government. (AFP file)

Besides the military merger, civilians involved in the transition process also demanded the transfer of several key, and profitable, military holdings in agriculture and commerce to civilian control. These holdings represent a significant source of power and profit for the army. Reeves is therefore skeptical that any such transfer will take place.

“There will be no civilian governance as long as Al-Burhan and Hemedti are fighting it out,” he said. “And there will be no transition to civilian governance if either were to prevail, unless they were so weakened that civilians were in position to exert more power than they are now. But they’re helpless. There’s nothing civilians can do at present.”

Tensions intensified on Monday when the US embassy in Khartoum said the RSF had targeted one of its diplomatic convoys. This prompted Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, to call both Hemedti and Al-Burhan and appeal for a ceasefire — to which both agreed.




Civilians greet army soldiers loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan in the Red Sea city of Port Sudan on April 16, 2023. (AFP)

Experts are confident the fighting will not escalate into a full-blown civil war, given that the Sudanese Armed Forces enjoy air superiority — a crucial and strategic advantage over the RSF.

“I have watched how the RSF has developed as a military force. It does not have an air force. It does not have any significant supply of heavy armor,” said Reeves. It is “not a militia force that is highly motivated, except by greed. They have no interest in civilian governance.”

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Shimale agrees with Reeves’ view that the RSF is unlikely to have the drive or resources to mount a lasting campaign in an attempt to seize power.

“The Sudanese Armed Forces have the upper hand in this struggle and will successfully trump the RSF forces, although it might take some time,” said Shimale.

“I think that while the fighting will probably end in the capital it will move geographically to the south, where protracted fighting will continue for a while, namely in Darfur, where Hemidti’s main support base and his paramilitary HQ are located.”

The international community has been keeping a close watch on the situation, with Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan speaking to both generals and calling for an end to hostilities.

 


Israel strikes Yemen Houthis, warns it will ‘hunt’ leaders

Updated 11 January 2025
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Israel strikes Yemen Houthis, warns it will ‘hunt’ leaders

  • Israeli military said fighter jets struck military targets belonging to Houthi regime
  • It said it also struck military infrastructure in the ports of Hodeida and Ras Issa

JERUSALEM: Israel struck Houthi targets in Yemen on Friday, including a power station and coastal ports, in response to missile and drone launches, and warned it would hunt down the group’s leaders.
“A short while ago... fighter jets struck military targets belonging to the Houthi terrorist regime on the western coast and inland Yemen,” the Israeli military said in a statement.
It said the strikes were carried out in retaliation for Houthi missile and drone launches into Israel.
The statement said the targets included “military infrastructure sites in the Hizaz power station, which serves as a central source of energy” for the Houthis.
It said it also struck military infrastructure in the ports of Hodeida and Ras Issa.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a statement after the strikes, said the Houthis were being punished for their repeated attacks on his country.
“As we promised, the Houthis are paying, and they will continue to pay, a heavy price for their aggression against us,” he said.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel would “hunt down the leaders of the Houthi terror organization.”
“The Hodeida port is paralyzed, and the Ras Issa port is on fire — there will be no immunity for anyone,” he said in a video statement.
The Houthis, who control Sanaa, have fired missiles and drones toward Israel since war broke out in Gaza in October 2023.
They describe the attacks as acts of solidarity with Gazans.
The Iran-backed rebels have also targeted ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, prompting retaliatory strikes by the United States and, on occasion, Britain.
Israel has also struck Houthi targets in Yemen, including in the capital.
Since the Gaza war began, the Houthis have launched about 40 surface-to-surface missiles toward Israel, most of which were intercepted, the Israeli army says.
The military has also reported the launch of about 320 drones, with more than 100 intercepted by Israeli air defenses.


West Bank family wants justice for children killed in Israel strike

Updated 11 January 2025
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West Bank family wants justice for children killed in Israel strike

  • Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 825 Palestinians in the territory, according to Health Ministry figures

TAMMUN, Plestinian Territories: Batoul Bsharat was playing with her eight-year-old brother Reda in their village in the occupied West Bank. Moments later, an Israeli drone strike killed him and two of their cousins.
“It was the first time in our lives that we played without arguing. It meant so much to me,” the 10-year-old said as she sat on the concrete ledge outside the family home in the northern village of Tammun where they had been playing on Wednesday.
At her feet, a crater no wider than two fists marked where the missile hit.
The wall behind her is pockmarked with shrapnel impacts, and streaks of blood still stain the ledge.
Besides Reda, Hamza, 10, and Adam, 23, were also killed.
The Israeli army said on Wednesday that it had struck “a terrorist cell” in Tammun but later promised an investigation into the civilian deaths.
Batoul puts on a brave face but is heartbroken at the loss of her younger brother.
“Just before he was martyred, he started kissing and hugging me,” she said.
“I miss my brother so much. He was the best thing in the world.”
Her cousin Obay, 16, brother of Adam, was the first to come out and find the bodies before Israeli soldiers came to take them away.
“I went outside and saw the three of them lying on the ground,” he said. “I tried to lift them, but the army came and didn’t allow us to get close.”
Obay said his elder brother had just returned from a pilgrimage to Makkah.
“Adam and I were like best friends. We had so many shared moments together. Now I can’t sleep,” he said, staring into the distance, bags under his eyes.
Obay said the soldiers made him lie on the ground while they searched the house and confiscated cellphones before leaving with the bodies on stretchers.
Later on Wednesday, the army returned the bodies, which were then laid to rest. On Thursday, Obay’s father, Khaireddin, and his brothers received condolences from neighbors.
Despite his pain, he said things could have been worse as the family home hosts many children.
“Usually, about six or seven kids are playing together, so if the missile had struck when they were all there, it could have been 10 children,” he said.
Khaireddin was at work at a quarry in the Jordan Valley when he heard the news. Adam had chosen to stay home and rest after his pilgrimage to Makkah.
He described his son as “an exceptional young man, respectful, well-mannered and upright,” who had “nothing to do with any resistance or armed groups.”
Khaireddin, like the rest of the Bsharat family, said he could not comprehend why his home had been targeted.
“We are a simple family, living ordinary lives. We have no affiliations with any sides or movements.”

Violence has soared in the West Bank since war broke out in Gaza with the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023.
Israeli troops or settlers have killed at least 825 Palestinians in the territory, according to Health Ministry figures.
As the Israeli army has stepped up its raids on West Bank cities and refugee camps, it has also intensified its use of air strikes, which were once a rarity.
A day before the Bsharat home was hit, a similar strike had struck Tammun.
Khaireddin regrets that the army made “no apology or acknowledgment of their mistake.”
“This is the current reality — there is no accountability. Who can we turn to for justice?“

 


Tajani says Syrian leader pledged to stop ‘illegal immigration’

Updated 11 January 2025
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Tajani says Syrian leader pledged to stop ‘illegal immigration’

  • Tajani also met his new counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani, after which the Syrian official said he would soon make his first official tour of Europe

BEIRUT: Syria’s new leader Ahmed Al-Sharaa told visiting Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani on Friday that he was ready to stem “illegal immigration” to Europe, the European diplomat said.
“Al-Sharaa says he is ready to block illegal immigration, (and) fight against drug traffickers,” Tajani said in the Lebanese capital, the second leg of his trip, adding these were “two crucial commitments for Italy.”
Tajani said he had called for a moratorium on EU sanctions on Syria for six months or one year.
However, Tajani added that “lifting sanctions is not a national decision. They are a European bloc decision.”
Tajani also met his new counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani, after which the Syrian official said he would soon make his first official tour of Europe.
“I am pleased to announce my intention to head a high-level delegation on a foreign tour that includes a number of European countries,” he said. Al-Shaibani has already visited Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan since the start of the month. Tajani arrived after hosting talks with European counterparts and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Rome on Thursday, where Tajani said they are seeking a “stable and united Syria.”
The EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas earlier on Friday said the 27-nation bloc could begin lifting sanctions if Syria’s new rulers took steps to form an inclusive government that protects minorities.

 


US working with regional partners to support ‘responsible transition’ in Syria: Official

Updated 10 January 2025
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US working with regional partners to support ‘responsible transition’ in Syria: Official

  • Acting undersecretary for political affairs addressed press briefing attended by Arab News
  • John Bass would not answer questions regarding Israel’s military attacks against Syria

CHICAGO: Discussions to ensure a “responsible transition” in Syria to prevent a rise in terrorism, provide basic services to citizens and ensure good relations with regional nations are progressing, the US acting undersecretary for political affairs told a press briefing attended by Arab News on Friday.

Concluding two days of talks with Turkish officials in Ankara, John Bass said the Syria Working Group also addressed defining Syria’s borders and “strengthening internal security” to prevent a resurgence of Daesh and other “foreign terrorist organizations” in the country.

Bass was careful not to predict how US policy might change under Donald Trump, nor would he address questions regarding Israel’s military attacks against Syria. 

“We’ve also discussed in depth a range of steps that the United States and other governments have taken to enable the interim authorities in Damascus to address the immediate needs of the Syrian people, including via support from other governments for things like salaries, payments for the civilian administration at the national level, for donations of power or energy, and for some of the other measures that are required to stabilize the Syrian government, to stabilize the economy, and to give the Syrian people hope that this transition will yield a better future for all of the citizens of the country,” Bass said.

“What we’re working through … is how we can affect a responsible transition … so that it contributes to strengthening national forces over time and building, rebuilding a military and a police service that responsibly fulfills its duties and obligations to the Syrian people, but to do that in a way that doesn’t create immediate risk,” he added.

“It’s a complicated process to help a national government, particularly one that’s an interim government that needs to do a lot of internal work with other parts of Syrian society to determine what that government will look like in the future.”

Bass said the US is concerned that events in Syria do not “pose a threat to any of Syria’s neighbors, to countries in the wider region or to countries further afield, whether that’s in Europe, the United States or elsewhere around the world.”

He added that “the long-running civil war in Syria and the long-standing presence of Daesh” in the country have created threats to neighboring nations.

“It’s in that spirit that we’ve been engaging … in discussions about how we can help work together to ensure that as this transition continues inside Syria that it doesn’t just produce a better, safer environment inside Syria for all Syrians, it also addresses the security concerns of Turkiye, of Iraq, of Jordan, and of Syria’s other neighbors,” he said.

The US “greatly” admires “the generosity of the Turkish government and the Turkish people in hosting over 3 million (Syrian) refugees for now well over a decade,” he added. 

Bass said discussions were focused on ensuring that fighters of terrorist groups such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) are forced to return to their nations of origin.

“We’re in agreement with the government of Turkiye and a number of other governments that Syria can’t be, shouldn’t be in the future a safe haven for foreign terrorist organizations or foreign terrorist fighters. And we believe that any foreign terrorist that’s present inside Syria should leave the country,” Bass said in addressing the PKK.

“Ideally, many of those people will be returning to their countries of origin, their countries of nationality, through a responsible process that involves those governments potentially to face justice for their actions.

“But they should no longer be present in Syria, contributing to instability in the country. And that includes any foreign terrorists who have taken advantage of the long-term instability in Syria to set up shop whether it’s in northeastern Syria, whether it’s in southwestern or southern or southeastern Syria.” 

Asked how Trump administration policies might differ, Bass said: “I’m a senior official of the current United States government. I can’t speak for the next US administration, nor can I offer any insights at this time into how US policy might change under the next administration.”

He expressed confidence, however, that “colleagues in the US government” will continue to support Syria’s transition.

Bass also emphasized that the small US presence in Syria has one specific purpose, “to ensure that Daesh doesn’t again become a threat to the people of Syria, the people of Turkiye, the people of Iraq or Jordan, or any other country.”


Israeli military confirms hostage killed alongside father in Gaza

Updated 10 January 2025
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Israeli military confirms hostage killed alongside father in Gaza

  • Israeli forces continued on Friday to pound Gaza, with Palestinian medics saying at least 15 people had been killed
  • The Israeli military has said it suspected Hamza and Youssef were killed in one of its strikes

JERUSALEM: Israel confirmed on Friday that the remains of a hostage found killed in Gaza were of Hamza Ziyadne, the son of deceased hostage Youssef Ziyadne, whose body was found beside him in an underground tunnel near the southern city of Rafah.
Israeli forces continued on Friday to pound Gaza, with Palestinian medics saying at least 15 people had been killed, including a journalist for Cairo-based Al-Ghad TV who had been covering an incident at Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza.
There was no immediate comment on the latest fighting from Israeli’s military, which earlier announced it had concluded forensic tests to identify Hamza Ziyadne, an Israeli Bedouin taken hostage by Hamas-led fighters alongside his father and two of his siblings.
It said earlier this week that the body of Hamza’s father Youssef had been recovered close to those of armed guards from Islamist group Hamas or another Palestinian militant group and there were indications that Hamza may also have been killed.
There was no immediate comment from Hamas although the group’s armed wing told Qatar’s Al-Jazeera news network that most of the hostages in northern Gaza were now considered missing because of intense Israeli strikes there.
The left-leaning Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that the Israeli military has said it suspected Hamza and Youssef were killed in one of its strikes, given their bodies were found next to those of dead militants. A military spokesperson said this week that Youssef Ziyadne had not died recently.
The military declined to comment on the cause of the hostages’ deaths.

EFFORTS TO END FIGHTING
Mediators Qatar, the United States and Egypt are making new efforts to reach a deal to halt the fighting in Gaza and free the remaining hostages before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
The Hostages and Missing Family Forum, which represents most of the families, renewed its call on the Israeli government to conclude a deal with Hamas and bring back the hostages, saying Youssef and Hamza Ziyadne could have been saved through an earlier agreement.
The negotiations have been at an impasse for a year over two key issues. Hamas has said it will only free its remaining hostages if Israel agrees to end the war and withdraw all its troops from Gaza. Israel says it will not end the war until Hamas is dismantled and all hostages are free.
Israeli defense minister Israel Katz on Friday instructed the military to present a plan for the “total defeat” of Hamas in Gaza if it does not release the hostages before Trump’s inauguration. It was not clear how such a plan would differ from existing Israeli military plans.
“We must not be dragged into a war of attrition against Hamas in Gaza, while the hostages remain in the tunnels, putting their lives at risk and suffering severely,” he told senior commanders, according to a defense ministry statement.
Israel launched its assault on the Gaza Strip after Hamas fighters stormed across its borders in October 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Since then, more than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza, according to Palestinian health officials, with much of the enclave laid waste and most of its people — displaced multiple times — facing acute shortages of food and medicine due to Israel’s actions, humanitarian agencies say.