Pakistan is sitting on a ticking population bomb

Amid intense political wrangling, a more important issue affecting the future of this country has gone almost unheeded. The population time bomb that had long been ticking is now exploding. 

With a staggering growth rate of 2 percent, Pakistan’s population has reached close to 240 million and still counting as per the ongoing census. That marks an increase of more than 10 percent since the last population census in 2017 or by 23 million people in less than six years.

The census was initially being held from March 1, 2023 to April 1, 2023, however, it was later extended several times until May 15, 2023 due to the objection that there was a deliberate attempt to understate the population of Karachi. The fact that population in the country’s biggest city is less than what estimates showed gives some credence to the objection. Detailed results of the census will be announced later this year.

Notwithstanding the political controversies, the point that is being missed in the entire discourse is the challenge that this uncontrolled population growth poses to our society and how to defuse this exploding bomb. While so many parts of the world have seen a reduction in fertility rates and population growth, Pakistan’s growth rate has increased.

Pakistan’s fertility rate is among the highest in the region. The last population census has shown that Pakistan has moved up the ladder becoming the fifth most populous nation only behind India, China, the United States and Indonesia. It is an alarming situation, especially considering the extent of poverty in the country.

With a staggering growth rate of 2 percent, Pakistan’s population has reached close to 240 million and still counting as per the ongoing census. That marks an increase of more than 10 percent since the last population census in 2017 or by 23 million people in less than six years.

Zahid Hussain

Interestingly, other Muslim countries like Bangladesh and Iran have successfully controlled their populations; that is also reflected in their improved human development indicators. With few efforts going into family planning, there is no sign of the population growth rate coming down significantly. At this rate, Pakistan may well become the world’s fourth most populous nation by 2030, surpassing Indonesia.

Not surprisingly, Pakistan is ranked 154th in the UN Human Development Index with close to 40pc of the population living below the poverty line. The literacy rate remains dismally low at 58pc, though many dispute even this figure as too high. With thousands of newborns added to the population each day, even this ranking on the development index will be hard to sustain.

Pakistan is sitting on a potential demographic disaster with more than half its population under 25 years of age. This high number of young people is the face of today’s Pakistan. With an extremely low literacy rate and bleak job opportunities, the future prospects of the young generation are uncertain and dark.

The high population growth rates and a huge youth bulge have created an extremely dangerous situation for Pakistan. We could have used our demographic power to turn around the country’s economy, but with little investment in education and slow economic growth, the youth bulge is fast becoming a liability and a serious threat to the country’s internal security.

Growing frustration among the youth makes them vulnerable to prejudices and extremism. The gravity of the situation can be assessed by the fact that 32% of our young generation is illiterate and the majority of others are school dropouts. Enrolment rates are the lowest in South Asia. 

With little or no education, as well as the lack of economic opportunities, they have not much to look forward to. Few are hopeful of getting jobs. The inability of the state to productively utilise a large young generation has already turned the country into a breeding ground for violent extremism, and could cause further social dislocation and conflict.

Furthermore, this massive population growth is one of the factors contributing to environmental degradation. Major environmental challenges currently confronting Pakistan such as climate change, deforestation, pollution and waste management are rightly attributed to rising population density.

Pakistan, being one of the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, has to bear the consequences of the increasing population. The existing environment management capacity cannot sustain such a large population if it is to provide a good quality of life.

All this has left the country struggling to provide for a rapidly expanding populace. It is a nightmare scenario fast unfolding. It is a disaster in the making. What is most worrisome is that this population explosion and its implications have drawn little attention from the political leadership.

Economic and social problems faced by the country cannot be dealt with effectively unless population growth is brought under control. Other countries have done it, and it should not be difficult for us either. But what is needed is political will and a clear policy.

- Zahid Hussain is an award-winning journalist and author. He is a former scholar at Woodrow Wilson Centre and a visiting fellow at Wolfson College, University of Cambridge, and at the Stimson Center in DC. He is author of Frontline Pakistan: The struggle with Militant Islam and The Scorpion’s tail: The relentless rise of Islamic militants in Pakistan. Frontline Pakistan was the book of the year (2007) by the WSJ. His latest book ‘No-Win War’ was published this year. Twitter: @hidhussain