South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

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People flee the violence in Sudan using trucks, buses, cars and horse-drawn carts. The exodus threatens to aggravate the already dire situation of refugee camps in neighboring South Sudan. (AFP)
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Updated 01 May 2023
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South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

  • Government and military officials wary of economic and security costs of prolonged crisis to the north
  • Analysts say former rebel groups could be dragged into the conflict, undermining the nation’s fragile peace

JUBA, South Sudan: The government of South Sudan has expressed deep concern over the fighting in neighboring Sudan, which it fears could spill across the border and threaten its fragile peace process.

The clashes between the Sudanese army and a paramilitary group in Khartoum hold the potential to ignite a civil war, into which neighboring South Sudan could get sucked.




Camps for internally displaced people in South Sudan, such as this one in the northern city of Bentiu, risk being swamped further by people fleeing the war in neighboring Sudan. (AFP)

There have been multiple truce efforts since fighting broke out on April 15 between Sudan’s army led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commanded by his deputy turned rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

As close neighbors, with a long history of conflict and interdependence, any instability or escalation of violence in Sudan is likely to spill over into South Sudan, with potentially dire consequences.

One major concern for South Sudanese officials is the potential economic impact of a prolonged conflict to the north.

Sudan exports crude oil produced by South Sudan. Any disruption to this trade arrangement could lead to economic instability for the young republic, which has already suffered the knock-on effects of recent tribal uprisings in eastern Sudan.

INNUMBERS

2011 South Sudan gained independence from Sudan on July 9.

11 million Estimated South Sudanese citizens in need of humanitarian assistanc2e.

$1,600 Real gross domestic product per capita (2017).

On Friday, the price of South Sudan’s oil exports fell from $100 per barrel to $70. Michael Makuei, the country’s information minister, accused oil companies of exploiting the crisis to drive down prices. Experts say the situation in Sudan could have long-term implications for South Sudan’s oil industry.

“The situation is alarming, as any spillover from Sudan will be a very big issue for us here and this is why President Salva Kiir has been calling for a ceasefire so that normalcy returns to Sudan,” Deng Dau Deng Malek, acting minister of foreign affairs, told Arab News.

 

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“South Sudan is very concerned about the situation in Sudan, especially given our shared border and historical ties. Any escalation of conflict in Sudan could have serious consequences for our country.”

Maj. Gen. Charles Machieng Kuol, a senior military officer in South Sudan, also weighed in on the potential harm that a prolonged conflict might cause, emphasizing the need for stability in the region.

“We have forces which have been deployed along the borders before,” he told Arab News. “Our country is preparing now to protect the borderlines, as we don’t want this war to escalate to our country.”

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Sudan has lived through multiple civil wars since gaining independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956.

Its first north-south civil war broke out several months before independence on Jan. 1, 1956 and lasted until 1972. It pitted successive governments in the Muslim-dominated north against separatist rebels in the predominantly Christian south.

The 17-year conflict ended with a treaty under which the south was granted autonomy. However, the agreement collapsed in 1983 after 11 years of relative peace when President Jaafar Nimeiri decided to revoke the south’s autonomous status.

Sudan’s second civil war erupted in 1983 following an uprising by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army led by John Garang. In 1989, Omar Al-Bashir took power in a coup and cracked down on the southern rebellion.




Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's former ruler, waves a walking stick during a visit in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur province on September 21, 2017. He was accompanied by paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (L). (AFP File)

he war ended on Jan. 9, 2005, when Garang signed a peace accord with Al-Bashir’s government. The cornerstone of the accord was a protocol granting it six years of self-rule ahead of a 2011 referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or secede.

South Sudan proclaimed independence on July 9, 2011, splitting Africa’s biggest country in two. As South Sudan separated, conflict resumed in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile in the rump state of Sudan in areas held by former guerrillas, now called the SPLM-North.

The presence of these former South Sudanese rebels close to the shared border complicates the current crisis, as they could easily be dragged into the conflict.

Manasseh Zindo, an independent analyst from South Sudan and a former delegate to the South Sudan peace process, says the involvement of these rebel leaders could have catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan.

 

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“Malik Agar is the leader of the SPLM-North. He is from the Blue Nile State near the Nuba Mountains in Sudan. He was part of South Sudan during the liberation struggle,” Zindo told Arab News.

“After the secession of South Sudan, the boundary delineation put him in Sudan. He is now part of the sovereign government in Khartoum. If he takes sides in the current conflict in Sudan, it could spill into South Sudan because of his links with South Sudan.”

Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual and Gen. Johnson Olony, two South Sudanese military officials who have shifted allegiance between different factions, are also based close to the Sudanese border.

Both men are leaders of SPLM-IO Kitgwang, a faction that broke away from Riek Machar’s SPLM-IO.




Rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), a South Sudanese anti-government force, patrol in their base in Panyume, on the South Sudanese side of the border with Uganda. (AFP File)

“If Gen. Simon or Gen. Johnson can be dragged into the Sudanese conflict, it can spill into South Sudan with catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan,” said Zindo.

The South Sudanese government is now on high alert and has urged citizens living close to the border to be vigilant and report any suspicious activities. It has also called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Sudan, adding that it is willing to play the role of mediator if both parties agree.

“The president (Salva Kiir) has been calling for a ceasefire and the cessation of hostilities for humanitarian assistance to reach the needy,” said Deng Malek, the acting minister of foreign affairs.

“He talked directly to President Al-Burhan and Deputy President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo a number of times to appeal to them so that they observe the cessation of hostilities and return to the negotiation table.”




In this picture taken on August 17, 2019, South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit is seated next to  
General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (front left) during a ceremony to sign an agreement paving the way for a transition to civilian rule. Kiir has appealed to Al-Burhan and rival general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo to stop fighting and resolve their problems peacefully. (AFP)

The UN and other international bodies have also expressed concern about the situation in Sudan and its potential impact on South Sudan. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, says the conflict in Sudan has already forced thousands of people to flee into South Sudan, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.

South Sudan is still recovering from a six-year civil war that ended in 2018, which left more than 380,000 people dead and displaced millions. The country is now trying to implement a peace agreement that was signed in September 2018, but progress has been slow, with sporadic clashes reported in different parts of the country.

As the situation deteriorates, Sudanese refugees are flooding across the border into South Sudan. International aid agencies are calling for urgent action to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

According to UNHCR, there are currently more than 800,000 South Sudanese refugees in Sudan, a quarter of whom are in Khartoum and directly impacted by the fighting.

Egypt, Sudan’s northern neighbor, said on Thursday that at least 14,000 Sudanese refugees had crossed its border since the fighting erupted, as well as 2,000 people from 50 other countries.

At least 20,000 people have escaped into Chad, 4,000 into South Sudan, 3,500 into Ethiopia and 3,000 into the Central African Republic, according to the UN, which warns that if the fighting continues as many as 270,000 people could flee.

Gavin Kelleher, a humanitarian analyst for the Norwegian Refugee Council in South Sudan, said that the country is ill-prepared to absorb the expected influx from the north.

 

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“The number of new arrivals is still unclear, but they are very likely to continue to increase in the coming weeks and it’s really important that we put the wheels in motion now for an effective humanitarian response,” Kelleher told Arab News.

“About 75 percent of South Sudan’s population are assessed to be in need of humanitarian assistance already, and the majority of the country has emergency or critical levels of food insecurity.

“Further shocks such as waves of new arrivals from Sudan are stretching the limited amount of resources available to new levels.”

 


A Palestinian activist expecting a US citizenship interview is arrested instead by ICE in Vermont

Updated 8 sec ago
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A Palestinian activist expecting a US citizenship interview is arrested instead by ICE in Vermont

  • Mohsen Mahdawi, legal permanent resident with green card since 2015, was detained at US Citizenship and Immigration Services office
  • Attorneys said do not know where he was, file petition in federal court seeking order barring government from removing him from the state

WASHINGTON: A Palestinian man who led protests against the war in Gaza as a student at Columbia University was arrested Monday at a Vermont immigration office where he expected to be interviewed about finalizing his US citizenship, his attorneys said.
Mohsen Mahdawi, a legal permanent resident who has held a green card since 2015, was detained at the US Citizenship and Immigration Services office in Colchester by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, his lawyers said.
The attorneys said they do not know where he is. They filed a petition in federal court seeking an order barring the government from removing him from the state or country.
“The Trump administration detained Mohsen Mahdawi in direct retaliation for his advocacy on behalf of Palestinians and because of his identity as a Palestinian. His detention is an attempt to silence those who speak out against the atrocities in Gaza. It is also unconstitutional,” attorney Luna Droubi said in an email.
According to the court filing, Mahdawi was born in a refugee camp in the West Bank and moved to the United States in 2014. He recently completed coursework at Columbia and was expected to graduate in May before beginning a master’s degree program there in the fall.
The petition describes him as a committed Buddhist who believes in “non-violence and empathy as a central tenet of his religion.”
As a student, Mahdawi was an outspoken critic of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and organized campus protests until March 2024. He co-founded the Palestinian Student Union at Columbia with Mahmoud Khalil, another Palestinian permanent resident of the US and graduate student who recently was detained by ICE.
Khalil was the first person arrested under President Donald Trump’s promised crackdown on students who joined campus protests against the war in Gaza. On Friday, an immigration judge in Louisiana ruled that Khalil can be deported as a national security risk.
Christopher Helali, a friend of Mahdawi who lives near him in Vermont, was present outside the immigration office when Mahdawi was detained and recorded a video of Mahdawi being led away by authorities. In the video, which Helali released on social media Monday, Mahdawi is shown giving a peace sign with his hands and being led away to a car.
Helali described Mahdawi as a peaceful demonstrator who has worked to foster dialogue about the struggle of Palestinians in his homeland. Helali said he and Mahdawi were aware that Mahdawi could be detained today and that his friend went forward with the appointment anyway.
“And rightfully so, he was nervous for what was going on around him. But he was very much resolute in coming to this interview and coming today because he didn’t do anything wrong and was a law-abiding citizen, or soon-to-be citizen,” Helali said.
Vermont’s congressional delegation issued a statement condemning Mahdawi’s arrest, saying that instead of taking one of the final steps in his citizenship process, he was handcuffed by armed officers with their faces covered.
“This is immoral, inhumane, and illegal. Mr. Mahdawi, a legal resident of the United States, must be afforded due process under the law and immediately released from detention,” said the statement from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Peter Welch and Rep. Becca Balint.


China accuses US of launching ‘advanced’ cyberattacks during the Asian Winter Games

Updated 30 min 23 sec ago
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China accuses US of launching ‘advanced’ cyberattacks during the Asian Winter Games

  • The attacks had ‘the intention of sabotaging China’s critical information infrastructure, causing social disorder, and stealing important confidential information’

BEIJING: Chinese police in the northeastern city of Harbin have accused the United States National Security Agency (NSA) of launching “advanced” cyberattacks during the Asian Winter Games in February, targeting essential industries.
Police added three alleged NSA agents to a wanted list and also accused the University of California and Virginia Tech of being involved in the attacks after carrying out investigations, according to a report by state news agency Xinhua on Tuesday.
The NSA agents were identified by Xinhua as Katheryn A. Wilson, Robert J. Snelling and Stephen W. Johnson. The three were also found to have “repeatedly carried out cyberattacks on China’s critical information infrastructure and participated in cyberattacks on Huawei and other enterprises.”
It did not specify how the two American universities were involved.
The US Embassy in China did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.
The detailed allegations come as the world’s two largest economies spiral deeper into a trade war that has already spurred travel warnings for Chinese tourists going to the US and halted imports of US films into China.
“The US National Security Agency (NSA) launched cyberattacks against important industries such as energy, transportation, water conservancy, communications, and national defense research institutions in Heilongjiang province,” Xinhua said, citing the Harbin city public security bureau.
The attacks had “the intention of sabotaging China’s critical information infrastructure, causing social disorder, and stealing important confidential information,” it added.
Anonymous servers
Xinhua said the NSA operations took place during the Winter Games and were “suspected of activating specific pre-installed backdoors” in Microsoft Windows operating systems on specific devices in Heilongjiang.
In order to cover its tracks, the NSA purchased IP addresses in different countries and “anonymously” rented a large number of network servers including in Europe and Asia,” Xinhua said.
The NSA intended to use cyberattacks to steal the personal data of participating athletes, the news agency said, adding that the cyberattacks reached a peak from the first ice hockey game on February 3. The attacks targeted information systems such as the Asian Winter Games registration system and stored “sensitive information about the identities of relevant personnel of the event,” Xinhua said.
The US routinely accuses Chinese state-backed hackers of launching attacks against its critical infrastructure and government bodies.
Last month, Washington announced indictments against a slew of alleged Chinese hackers who targeted the US Defense Intelligence Agency, the US Department of Commerce, and the foreign ministries of Taiwan, South Korea, India, and Indonesia.
Beijing denies all involvement in overseas cyber espionage.
After years of being accused by Western governments of cyberattacks and industrial espionage, in the past two years several Chinese organizations and government organs have accused the United States and its allies of similar behavior.
In December, China said it found and dealt with two US cyberattacks on Chinese tech firms to “steal trade secrets” since May 2023, but did not name the agency involved.


Britain boosts aid for victims of Sudan conflict at conference

Updated 15 April 2025
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Britain boosts aid for victims of Sudan conflict at conference

  • British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said the war had been going on for far too long “and yet much of the world continues to look away”

LONDON: Britain said on Tuesday it would provide 120 million pounds ($158 million) more in aid to people in Sudan, which it said faces the worst humanitarian crisis on record, as it hosted a conference marking the two-year anniversary of the conflict.
The war in Sudan erupted in April 2023, sparked by a power struggle between the army and Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, shattering hopes for a transition to civilian rule.
The conflict has since displaced millions and devastated regions like Darfur, where the RSF is now fighting to maintain its stronghold amid army advances in Khartoum.
Rather than mediating directly in the conflict, Britain said Tuesday’s conference in London would be a chance to improve the coherence of the international response to the crisis, although Sudan criticized the fact its government was not invited for the talks.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said the war had been going on for far too long “and yet much of the world continues to look away.”
“We need to act now to stop the crisis from becoming an all-out catastrophe, ensuring aid gets to those who need it the most,” he said in a statement, adding that the combatants had shown “an appalling disregard” for Sudanese civilians.
Britain is co-hosting the London conference with the African Union, the European Union, France and Germany. Egypt, Kenya and the United Arab Emirates are among the other attendees.
Sudan’s foreign minister has written to Lammy to complain, saying Sudan should have been invited, while criticizing the presence of the UAE and Kenya.
Sudan has accused the UAE of arming RSF, a charge the UAE denies but UN experts and US lawmakers have found credible. Sudan has also recalled its envoy to Kenya after it hosted talks between the RSF and its allies to form a parallel government.
Bankole Adeoye, African Union commissioner for political affairs, peace and security, said “achieving peace in Sudan depends on valuing every voice and everyone playing a role in building a prosperous Sudan.”

AID CUT
Britain said 30 million people desperately needed aid and 12 million people were displaced, with famine spreading through Sudan. Lammy announced a separate 113-million-pound aid package in November, and in January he visited Sudan’s border with Chad.
However Britain’s support for victims of the conflict comes as the government has slashed its foreign aid budget to pay for increased defense spending.
Although Prime Minister Keir Starmer vowed to continue aid to civilians in Sudan, one of three priorities along with Gaza and Ukraine, his development minister resigned, saying Britain’s aid priorities would be impossible to maintain and the cuts would ultimately harm Britain’s reputation abroad.
On Tuesday, lawyers acting for Sudanese victims submitted a 141-page dossier outlining alleged war crimes committed by the RSF to the UK police’s special war crimes unit, with a request to pass the file to the International Criminal Court, which has jurisdiction over atrocity crimes in Darfur.
By sending the file via the UK police rather than directly to the ICC, the lawyers said they hoped to provide an impetus for the two jurisdictions to work together more closely on accountability for Darfur.

 

 


El Salvador’s Bukele says he will not return man the US mistakenly deported

Updated 15 April 2025
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El Salvador’s Bukele says he will not return man the US mistakenly deported

  • Case of Maryland resident wrongfully deported dominates visit

WASHINGTON: El Salvador President Nayib Bukele said at the White House on Monday he had no plans to return a man mistakenly deported from the United States, suggesting that doing so would be like smuggling a terrorist into the country.
His remarks came during an Oval Office meeting where multiple officials in President Donald Trump’s administration said they were not required to bring back Salvadoran Kilmar Abrego Garcia, despite a US Supreme Court order saying they must facilitate the Maryland resident’s return.
Abrego Garcia’s case has drawn attention as the Trump administration has deported hundreds of people to El Salvador with help from Bukele, whose country is receiving $6 million to house the migrants in a high-security mega-prison.
The US government has described his deportation as an administrative error. But in court filings and at the White House on Monday, the administration indicated it does not plan to ask for Abrego Garcia back, raising questions about whether it is defying the courts.
Bukele told reporters he did not have the power to return Abrego Garcia to the US
“The question is preposterous. How can I smuggle a terrorist into the United States?” Bukele said, echoing the Trump administration’s claim that Abrego Garcia is a member of the MS-13 gang.
Bukele’s comments came shortly after US Attorney General Pam Bondi said at the same meeting that the US needed only to “provide a plane” if Bukele wanted to return Abrego Garcia.
Abrego Garcia’s lawyers have denied the allegation he is a gang member, saying the US has presented no credible evidence.
The US sent Abrego Garcia to El Salvador on March 15. Trump called reporters asking whether the administration would follow the order for his return “sick people.”
“The foreign policy of the United States is conducted by the president of the United States, not by a court,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during the Oval Office meeting.

Mega-prison
Trump said he would send as many people living in the US illegally to El Salvador as possible and help Bukele build new prisons.
The US on Saturday deported 10 more people to El Salvador it alleges are gang members.
The migrants El Salvador accepts from the US are housed in a facility known as the Terrorism Confinement Center. Critics say the prison engages in human rights abuses and that Bukele’s crackdown on gangs has swept up many innocent people without due process.
Bukele told Trump he is accused of imprisoning thousands of people. “I like to say that we actually liberated millions,” he said.
The US president reacted gleefully to Bukele’s comment. “Do you think I can use that?” Trump asked.
The State Department last week lifted its advisory for American travelers to El Salvador to the safest level, crediting Bukele for reducing gang activity and violent crime.
Lawyers and relatives of the migrants held in El Salvador say they are not gang members and had no opportunity to contest the US government assertion that they were.
The Trump administration says it vetted migrants to ensure they belonged to gangs including Tren de Aragua and MS-13, which it labels terrorist organizations.
Last month, after a judge said flights carrying migrants processed under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act should return to the US, Bukele wrote “Oopsie... Too late” on social media alongside footage showing men being hustled off a plane at night.

Tuesday hearing
An immigration judge had previously granted Abrego Garcia protection from being deported to El Salvador, finding that he could face gang violence there. He held a permit to work in the US, where he had lived since 2011.
The US Supreme Court last week upheld a lower court ruling directing the administration to “facilitate and effectuate” his return. But it said the term “effectuate” was unclear and might exceed the authority of the district court judge.
A hearing is scheduled for Tuesday. Legal experts said Judge Paula Xinis may press the Trump administration to determine if it signaled to Bukele that he should refuse to release Abrego Garcia, which could amount to defiance of the court order’s language to “facilitate” his return.
While the Supreme Court in its decision ordered Xinis to clarify her order “with due regard for the deference owed to the executive branch in the conduct of foreign affairs,” some legal experts said Trump is likely defying the court by undermining Abrego Garcia’s release.
“All that is total claptrap as applied to a case like this, where the only reason why the foreign country is holding the person is because the US pushed them to do it and made an agreement under which they would do it,” George Mason University constitutional law professor Ilya Somin said.
“It’s very obvious that they could get him released if they wanted to.”
Trump told reporters on Friday that his administration would bring the man back if the Supreme Court directed it to do so.


A Palestinian activist expecting a US citizenship interview is arrested instead by ICE in Vermont

Updated 15 April 2025
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A Palestinian activist expecting a US citizenship interview is arrested instead by ICE in Vermont

  • “The Trump administration detained Mohsen Mahdawi in direct retaliation for his advocacy on behalf of Palestinians and because of his identity as a Palestinian

WASHINGTON: A Palestinian man who led protests against the war in Gaza as a student at Columbia University was arrested Monday at a Vermont immigration office where he expected to be interviewed about finalizing his US citizenship, his attorneys said.
Mohsen Mahdawi, a legal permanent resident who has held a green card since 2015, was detained at the US Citizenship and Immigration Services office in Colchester by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, his lawyers said.
The attorneys said they do not know where he is. They filed a petition in federal court seeking an order barring the government from removing him from the state or country.
“The Trump administration detained Mohsen Mahdawi in direct retaliation for his advocacy on behalf of Palestinians and because of his identity as a Palestinian. His detention is an attempt to silence those who speak out against the atrocities in Gaza. It is also unconstitutional,” attorney Luna Droubi said in an email.
According to the court filing, Mahdawi was born in a refugee camp in the West Bank and moved to the United States in 2014. He recently completed coursework at Columbia and was expected to graduate in May before beginning a master’s degree program there in the fall.
The petition describes him as a committed Buddhist who believes in “non-violence and empathy as a central tenet of his religion.”
As a student, Mahdawi was an outspoken critic of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza and organized campus protests until March 2024. He co-founded the Palestinian Student Union at Columbia with Mahmoud Khalil, another Palestinian permanent resident of the US and graduate student who recently was detained by ICE.
Khalil was the first person arrested under President Donald Trump’s promised crackdown on students who joined campus protests against the war in Gaza. On Friday, an immigration judge in Louisiana ruled that Khalil can be deported as a national security risk.
Christopher Helali, a friend of Mahdawi who lives near him in Vermont, was present outside the immigration office when Mahdawi was detained and recorded a video of Mahdawi being led away by authorities. In the video, which Helali released on social media Monday, Mahdawi is shown giving a peace sign with his hands and being led away to a car.
Helali described Mahdawi as a peaceful demonstrator who has worked to foster dialogue about the struggle of Palestinians in his homeland. Helali said he and Mahdawi were aware that Mahdawi could be detained today and that his friend went forward with the appointment anyway.
“And rightfully so, he was nervous for what was going on around him. But he was very much resolute in coming to this interview and coming today because he didn’t do anything wrong and was a law-abiding citizen, or soon-to-be citizen,” Helali said.
Vermont’s congressional delegation issued a statement condemning Mahdawi’s arrest, saying that instead of taking one of the final steps in his citizenship process, he was handcuffed by armed officers with their faces covered.
“This is immoral, inhumane, and illegal. Mr. Mahdawi, a legal resident of the United States, must be afforded due process under the law and immediately released from detention,” said the statement from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Peter Welch and Rep. Becca Balint.