South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

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People flee the violence in Sudan using trucks, buses, cars and horse-drawn carts. The exodus threatens to aggravate the already dire situation of refugee camps in neighboring South Sudan. (AFP)
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Updated 01 May 2023
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South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

  • Government and military officials wary of economic and security costs of prolonged crisis to the north
  • Analysts say former rebel groups could be dragged into the conflict, undermining the nation’s fragile peace

JUBA, South Sudan: The government of South Sudan has expressed deep concern over the fighting in neighboring Sudan, which it fears could spill across the border and threaten its fragile peace process.

The clashes between the Sudanese army and a paramilitary group in Khartoum hold the potential to ignite a civil war, into which neighboring South Sudan could get sucked.




Camps for internally displaced people in South Sudan, such as this one in the northern city of Bentiu, risk being swamped further by people fleeing the war in neighboring Sudan. (AFP)

There have been multiple truce efforts since fighting broke out on April 15 between Sudan’s army led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commanded by his deputy turned rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

As close neighbors, with a long history of conflict and interdependence, any instability or escalation of violence in Sudan is likely to spill over into South Sudan, with potentially dire consequences.

One major concern for South Sudanese officials is the potential economic impact of a prolonged conflict to the north.

Sudan exports crude oil produced by South Sudan. Any disruption to this trade arrangement could lead to economic instability for the young republic, which has already suffered the knock-on effects of recent tribal uprisings in eastern Sudan.

INNUMBERS

2011 South Sudan gained independence from Sudan on July 9.

11 million Estimated South Sudanese citizens in need of humanitarian assistanc2e.

$1,600 Real gross domestic product per capita (2017).

On Friday, the price of South Sudan’s oil exports fell from $100 per barrel to $70. Michael Makuei, the country’s information minister, accused oil companies of exploiting the crisis to drive down prices. Experts say the situation in Sudan could have long-term implications for South Sudan’s oil industry.

“The situation is alarming, as any spillover from Sudan will be a very big issue for us here and this is why President Salva Kiir has been calling for a ceasefire so that normalcy returns to Sudan,” Deng Dau Deng Malek, acting minister of foreign affairs, told Arab News.

 

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“South Sudan is very concerned about the situation in Sudan, especially given our shared border and historical ties. Any escalation of conflict in Sudan could have serious consequences for our country.”

Maj. Gen. Charles Machieng Kuol, a senior military officer in South Sudan, also weighed in on the potential harm that a prolonged conflict might cause, emphasizing the need for stability in the region.

“We have forces which have been deployed along the borders before,” he told Arab News. “Our country is preparing now to protect the borderlines, as we don’t want this war to escalate to our country.”

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Sudan has lived through multiple civil wars since gaining independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956.

Its first north-south civil war broke out several months before independence on Jan. 1, 1956 and lasted until 1972. It pitted successive governments in the Muslim-dominated north against separatist rebels in the predominantly Christian south.

The 17-year conflict ended with a treaty under which the south was granted autonomy. However, the agreement collapsed in 1983 after 11 years of relative peace when President Jaafar Nimeiri decided to revoke the south’s autonomous status.

Sudan’s second civil war erupted in 1983 following an uprising by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army led by John Garang. In 1989, Omar Al-Bashir took power in a coup and cracked down on the southern rebellion.




Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's former ruler, waves a walking stick during a visit in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur province on September 21, 2017. He was accompanied by paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (L). (AFP File)

he war ended on Jan. 9, 2005, when Garang signed a peace accord with Al-Bashir’s government. The cornerstone of the accord was a protocol granting it six years of self-rule ahead of a 2011 referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or secede.

South Sudan proclaimed independence on July 9, 2011, splitting Africa’s biggest country in two. As South Sudan separated, conflict resumed in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile in the rump state of Sudan in areas held by former guerrillas, now called the SPLM-North.

The presence of these former South Sudanese rebels close to the shared border complicates the current crisis, as they could easily be dragged into the conflict.

Manasseh Zindo, an independent analyst from South Sudan and a former delegate to the South Sudan peace process, says the involvement of these rebel leaders could have catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan.

 

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“Malik Agar is the leader of the SPLM-North. He is from the Blue Nile State near the Nuba Mountains in Sudan. He was part of South Sudan during the liberation struggle,” Zindo told Arab News.

“After the secession of South Sudan, the boundary delineation put him in Sudan. He is now part of the sovereign government in Khartoum. If he takes sides in the current conflict in Sudan, it could spill into South Sudan because of his links with South Sudan.”

Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual and Gen. Johnson Olony, two South Sudanese military officials who have shifted allegiance between different factions, are also based close to the Sudanese border.

Both men are leaders of SPLM-IO Kitgwang, a faction that broke away from Riek Machar’s SPLM-IO.




Rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), a South Sudanese anti-government force, patrol in their base in Panyume, on the South Sudanese side of the border with Uganda. (AFP File)

“If Gen. Simon or Gen. Johnson can be dragged into the Sudanese conflict, it can spill into South Sudan with catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan,” said Zindo.

The South Sudanese government is now on high alert and has urged citizens living close to the border to be vigilant and report any suspicious activities. It has also called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Sudan, adding that it is willing to play the role of mediator if both parties agree.

“The president (Salva Kiir) has been calling for a ceasefire and the cessation of hostilities for humanitarian assistance to reach the needy,” said Deng Malek, the acting minister of foreign affairs.

“He talked directly to President Al-Burhan and Deputy President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo a number of times to appeal to them so that they observe the cessation of hostilities and return to the negotiation table.”




In this picture taken on August 17, 2019, South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit is seated next to  
General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (front left) during a ceremony to sign an agreement paving the way for a transition to civilian rule. Kiir has appealed to Al-Burhan and rival general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo to stop fighting and resolve their problems peacefully. (AFP)

The UN and other international bodies have also expressed concern about the situation in Sudan and its potential impact on South Sudan. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, says the conflict in Sudan has already forced thousands of people to flee into South Sudan, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.

South Sudan is still recovering from a six-year civil war that ended in 2018, which left more than 380,000 people dead and displaced millions. The country is now trying to implement a peace agreement that was signed in September 2018, but progress has been slow, with sporadic clashes reported in different parts of the country.

As the situation deteriorates, Sudanese refugees are flooding across the border into South Sudan. International aid agencies are calling for urgent action to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

According to UNHCR, there are currently more than 800,000 South Sudanese refugees in Sudan, a quarter of whom are in Khartoum and directly impacted by the fighting.

Egypt, Sudan’s northern neighbor, said on Thursday that at least 14,000 Sudanese refugees had crossed its border since the fighting erupted, as well as 2,000 people from 50 other countries.

At least 20,000 people have escaped into Chad, 4,000 into South Sudan, 3,500 into Ethiopia and 3,000 into the Central African Republic, according to the UN, which warns that if the fighting continues as many as 270,000 people could flee.

Gavin Kelleher, a humanitarian analyst for the Norwegian Refugee Council in South Sudan, said that the country is ill-prepared to absorb the expected influx from the north.

 

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“The number of new arrivals is still unclear, but they are very likely to continue to increase in the coming weeks and it’s really important that we put the wheels in motion now for an effective humanitarian response,” Kelleher told Arab News.

“About 75 percent of South Sudan’s population are assessed to be in need of humanitarian assistance already, and the majority of the country has emergency or critical levels of food insecurity.

“Further shocks such as waves of new arrivals from Sudan are stretching the limited amount of resources available to new levels.”

 


Malaysia ex-PM Mahathir, 100, discharged from hospital

Updated 3 sec ago
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Malaysia ex-PM Mahathir, 100, discharged from hospital

  • Mahathir Mohamad was leader of the Southeast Asian nation for more than two decades
  • He has been hospitalized repeatedly in recent years, most recently in October for a respiratory infection
KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has been discharged from hospital, his office said on Sunday, after being admitted for fatigue following a picnic celebration for his 100th birthday.
Mahathir, leader of the Southeast Asian nation for more than two decades, has a history of heart problems and has undergone bypass surgeries. He has been hospitalized repeatedly in recent years, most recently in October for a respiratory infection.
He was under observation at the National Heart Institute in Kuala Lumpur for fatigue-related issues on Sunday, his office said. “Mahathir has been allowed home as of 4:45 p.m. (0845 GMT),” it said in a statement.
A physician who was a member of parliament until 2022, Mahathir drove himself on Sunday to the celebration, which also marked the 99th birthday of his wife, Hasmah Mohd Ali, a day earlier, local media reported.
The reports said he cycled for an hour before appearing tired. His birthday was on Thursday.
Mahathir was prime minister for 22 years until 2003. He returned as premier in 2018 after leading the opposition coalition to a historic win, but his government collapsed in less than two years due to infighting.

Several hurt in anti-migrant unrest in Spanish town

Updated 33 min 1 sec ago
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Several hurt in anti-migrant unrest in Spanish town

  • The regional government did not say how many people were injured but stated that at least one person had been arrested for the violence.

MADRID: Several people were hurt in a second night of anti-migrant unrest in the Spanish town of Torre Pacheco after a pensioner was beaten up, authorities said on Sunday.
Despite a major police presence, groups armed with batons roamed the streets looking for foreign-origin people, regional newspaper La Opinion de Murcia reported.
The regional government did not say how many people were injured but stated that at least one person had been arrested for the violence.
The unrest erupted after a 68-year-old man told Spanish media he was beaten up in the street on Wednesday by three youths of North African origin.
The attack was filmed and put on social media.
The town hall organized a demonstration on Friday that was intended to be peaceful but where far-right elements shouted anti-migrant slogans.
One group, named “Deport Them Now,” posted a message on social media calling for attacks against people of North African origin.
Spanish authorities launched an appeal for calm on Sunday in the town of 36,000 people.
“Torre Pacheco must get back to normal,” said the head of the Murcian regional government Fernando Lopez Miras in a message on X.
“I understand the frustration but nothing justifies violence,” added the conservative politician.
“I call on residents to be calm, for tranquility,” said Torre Pacheco mayor, Pedro Angel Roca Ternel, on RTVE public television.
Spain’s Youth Minister Sira Rego, a member of the extreme left wing party Sumar, condemned the violence against migrants in a message on Bluesky, blaming the role of the “ultra-right” in the unrest.


Russia takes new village in Ukraine’s Donetsk region

Updated 13 July 2025
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Russia takes new village in Ukraine’s Donetsk region

  • Russian troops advance toward the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region
  • Russia’s defense ministry say troops had captured the village of Myrne

MOSCOW: Russia said on Sunday it took another village in the west of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, as its troops advance toward the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region.

Moscow’s offensive on Ukraine has lasted for more than three years, with attacks intensifying this summer and US-led negotiations so far yielding no results to end the fighting.

Russia’s defense ministry said Russian troops had captured the village of Myrne, calling the village by its Soviet name “Karl Marx.”

It lies close to the administrative border between the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

The ministry claimed forces had moved “deep into the enemy’s defense” to take the village.

Myrne was one of two villages Moscow claimed on Sunday.

Russia has for months refused a ceasefire proposed by the United States and Kyiv.

Moscow launched its full-scale offensive against Ukraine in February 2022.


France says Australia defense ties repaired after submarine row

Updated 13 July 2025
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France says Australia defense ties repaired after submarine row

  • Paris expressed its “strong regrets” when Australia tore up a multibillion-dollar deal to buy a fleet of diesel-powered submarines from France

SYDNEY: France’s defense relations with Australia have recovered after their 2021 bust-up over a major submarine contract, the country’s ambassador said Sunday.
Paris expressed its “strong regrets” when Australia tore up a multibillion-dollar deal to buy a fleet of diesel-powered submarines from France, Ambassador Pierre-Andre Imbert said.
Since the 2022 election of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, however, the defense relationship had been “restarted,” he said.
“Now, the first pillar of our cooperation is defense and security, so we have a very good level of cooperation,” the ambassador told AFP as French forces joined major military drills around Australia.
When Australia ditched the French deal, it opted instead to acquire nuclear-powered vessels in a new three-way AUKUS pact with the United States and Britain.
But a US defense official last month revealed that a review of AUKUS was underway to ensure it “aligned with the President’s America First agenda” and that the US defense industrial base was “meeting our needs.”
Under the AUKUS deal, Australia would acquire at least three Virginia class submarines from the United States within 15 years, eventually manufacturing its own subs.
The US Navy has 24 Virginia-class vessels but American shipyards are struggling to meet production targets set at two new boats each year.
Asked if France would ever consider discussing a new submarine deal with Australia if the AUKUS agreement was torpedoed by the review, the French ambassador said he was reluctant to speculate.
“I would say it’s more an issue for Australia for the moment. And of course, we are always discussing with our friends of Australia,” he said.
“But for the moment, they have chosen AUKUS,” he said. “If this changes (and) they ask, we’ll see.”
More than 30,000 military personnel from 19 nations are set to join the three-week, annual Talisman Sabre military exercises, which started Sunday across Australia and Papua New Guinea.


Australia PM Albanese kicks off China visit focused on trade

Updated 13 July 2025
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Australia PM Albanese kicks off China visit focused on trade

  • Anthony Albanese is set to meet business, tourism and sport representatives in Shanghai and Chengdu
  • Albanese wants to reduce Australia’s economic dependence on China, a free trade partner

BEIJING: Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese kicked off a visit to China this weekend meant to shore up trade relations between the two countries.

Albanese met with Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Jining on Sunday, the first in a series of high-level exchanges that will include meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Qiang and Chairman Zhao Leji of the National People’s Congress.

Albanese is leading “a very large business delegation” to China, which speaks to the importance of the economic relations between Australia and China, he told Chinese state broadcaster CGTN upon his arrival in Shanghai Saturday.

During a weeklong trip, Albanese is set to meet business, tourism and sport representatives in Shanghai and Chengdu including a CEO roundtable Tuesday in Beijing, his office said.

It is Albanese’s second visit to China since his center-left Labour Party government was first elected in 2022. The party was reelected in May with an increased majority.

Albanese has managed to persuade Beijing to remove a series of official and unofficial trade barriers introduced under the previous conservative government that cost Australian exporters more than 20 billion Australian dollars ($13 billion) a year.

Beijing severed communications with the previous administration over issues including Australia’s calls for an independent inquiry into the origins of and responses to COVID-19. But Albanese wants to reduce Australia’s economic dependence on China, a free trade partner.

“My government has worked very hard to diversify trade … and to increase our relationships with other countries in the region, including India and Indonesia and the ASEAN countries,” Albanese said before his visit, referring to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

“But the relationship with China is an important one, as is our relationships when it comes to exports with the north Asian economies of South Korea and Japan,” he added.

Chinese state-run Xinhua News Agency, in an editorial Sunday, described China’s relationship with Australia as “steadily improving” and undergoing “fresh momentum.”

“There are no fundamental conflicts of interest between China and Australia,” the editorial stated. “By managing differences through mutual respect and focusing on shared interests, the two sides can achieve common prosperity and benefit.”