South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

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People flee the violence in Sudan using trucks, buses, cars and horse-drawn carts. The exodus threatens to aggravate the already dire situation of refugee camps in neighboring South Sudan. (AFP)
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Fighters of the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on the move in the East Nile district of greater Khartoum on April 23, 2023. (AFP)
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A convoy leaves Khartoum toward Port Sudan on April 23, 2023, as people flee the battle-torn Sudanese capital. (AFP)
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People gather to ride trucks in Khartoum as they leave the Sudanese capital on April 26, 2023, amid fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces. (Reuters)
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Updated 01 May 2023
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South Sudan’s fragile peace imperiled by chaos across the border in Sudan

  • Government and military officials wary of economic and security costs of prolonged crisis to the north
  • Analysts say former rebel groups could be dragged into the conflict, undermining the nation’s fragile peace

JUBA, South Sudan: The government of South Sudan has expressed deep concern over the fighting in neighboring Sudan, which it fears could spill across the border and threaten its fragile peace process.

The clashes between the Sudanese army and a paramilitary group in Khartoum hold the potential to ignite a civil war, into which neighboring South Sudan could get sucked.




Camps for internally displaced people in South Sudan, such as this one in the northern city of Bentiu, risk being swamped further by people fleeing the war in neighboring Sudan. (AFP)

There have been multiple truce efforts since fighting broke out on April 15 between Sudan’s army led by Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces commanded by his deputy turned rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

As close neighbors, with a long history of conflict and interdependence, any instability or escalation of violence in Sudan is likely to spill over into South Sudan, with potentially dire consequences.

One major concern for South Sudanese officials is the potential economic impact of a prolonged conflict to the north.

Sudan exports crude oil produced by South Sudan. Any disruption to this trade arrangement could lead to economic instability for the young republic, which has already suffered the knock-on effects of recent tribal uprisings in eastern Sudan.

INNUMBERS

2011 South Sudan gained independence from Sudan on July 9.

11 million Estimated South Sudanese citizens in need of humanitarian assistanc2e.

$1,600 Real gross domestic product per capita (2017).

On Friday, the price of South Sudan’s oil exports fell from $100 per barrel to $70. Michael Makuei, the country’s information minister, accused oil companies of exploiting the crisis to drive down prices. Experts say the situation in Sudan could have long-term implications for South Sudan’s oil industry.

“The situation is alarming, as any spillover from Sudan will be a very big issue for us here and this is why President Salva Kiir has been calling for a ceasefire so that normalcy returns to Sudan,” Deng Dau Deng Malek, acting minister of foreign affairs, told Arab News.

 

 

“South Sudan is very concerned about the situation in Sudan, especially given our shared border and historical ties. Any escalation of conflict in Sudan could have serious consequences for our country.”

Maj. Gen. Charles Machieng Kuol, a senior military officer in South Sudan, also weighed in on the potential harm that a prolonged conflict might cause, emphasizing the need for stability in the region.

“We have forces which have been deployed along the borders before,” he told Arab News. “Our country is preparing now to protect the borderlines, as we don’t want this war to escalate to our country.”

Sudan has lived through multiple civil wars since gaining independence from Britain and Egypt in 1956.

Its first north-south civil war broke out several months before independence on Jan. 1, 1956 and lasted until 1972. It pitted successive governments in the Muslim-dominated north against separatist rebels in the predominantly Christian south.

The 17-year conflict ended with a treaty under which the south was granted autonomy. However, the agreement collapsed in 1983 after 11 years of relative peace when President Jaafar Nimeiri decided to revoke the south’s autonomous status.

Sudan’s second civil war erupted in 1983 following an uprising by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army led by John Garang. In 1989, Omar Al-Bashir took power in a coup and cracked down on the southern rebellion.




Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's former ruler, waves a walking stick during a visit in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur province on September 21, 2017. He was accompanied by paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo (L). (AFP File)

he war ended on Jan. 9, 2005, when Garang signed a peace accord with Al-Bashir’s government. The cornerstone of the accord was a protocol granting it six years of self-rule ahead of a 2011 referendum on whether to remain part of Sudan or secede.

South Sudan proclaimed independence on July 9, 2011, splitting Africa’s biggest country in two. As South Sudan separated, conflict resumed in the Nuba Mountains and Blue Nile in the rump state of Sudan in areas held by former guerrillas, now called the SPLM-North.

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The presence of these former South Sudanese rebels close to the shared border complicates the current crisis, as they could easily be dragged into the conflict.

Manasseh Zindo, an independent analyst from South Sudan and a former delegate to the South Sudan peace process, says the involvement of these rebel leaders could have catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan.

 

 

“Malik Agar is the leader of the SPLM-North. He is from the Blue Nile State near the Nuba Mountains in Sudan. He was part of South Sudan during the liberation struggle,” Zindo told Arab News.

“After the secession of South Sudan, the boundary delineation put him in Sudan. He is now part of the sovereign government in Khartoum. If he takes sides in the current conflict in Sudan, it could spill into South Sudan because of his links with South Sudan.”

Gen. Simon Gatwech Dual and Gen. Johnson Olony, two South Sudanese military officials who have shifted allegiance between different factions, are also based close to the Sudanese border.

Both men are leaders of SPLM-IO Kitgwang, a faction that broke away from Riek Machar’s SPLM-IO.




Rebels of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), a South Sudanese anti-government force, patrol in their base in Panyume, on the South Sudanese side of the border with Uganda. (AFP File)

“If Gen. Simon or Gen. Johnson can be dragged into the Sudanese conflict, it can spill into South Sudan with catastrophic implications for the security of South Sudan,” said Zindo.

The South Sudanese government is now on high alert and has urged citizens living close to the border to be vigilant and report any suspicious activities. It has also called for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Sudan, adding that it is willing to play the role of mediator if both parties agree.

“The president (Salva Kiir) has been calling for a ceasefire and the cessation of hostilities for humanitarian assistance to reach the needy,” said Deng Malek, the acting minister of foreign affairs.

“He talked directly to President Al-Burhan and Deputy President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo a number of times to appeal to them so that they observe the cessation of hostilities and return to the negotiation table.”




In this picture taken on August 17, 2019, South Sudan President Salva Kiir Mayardit is seated next to  
General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan (front left) during a ceremony to sign an agreement paving the way for a transition to civilian rule. Kiir has appealed to Al-Burhan and rival general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo to stop fighting and resolve their problems peacefully. (AFP)

The UN and other international bodies have also expressed concern about the situation in Sudan and its potential impact on South Sudan. The UN refugee agency, UNHCR, says the conflict in Sudan has already forced thousands of people to flee into South Sudan, exacerbating an already dire humanitarian situation.

South Sudan is still recovering from a six-year civil war that ended in 2018, which left more than 380,000 people dead and displaced millions. The country is now trying to implement a peace agreement that was signed in September 2018, but progress has been slow, with sporadic clashes reported in different parts of the country.

As the situation deteriorates, Sudanese refugees are flooding across the border into South Sudan. International aid agencies are calling for urgent action to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

According to UNHCR, there are currently more than 800,000 South Sudanese refugees in Sudan, a quarter of whom are in Khartoum and directly impacted by the fighting.

Egypt, Sudan’s northern neighbor, said on Thursday that at least 14,000 Sudanese refugees had crossed its border since the fighting erupted, as well as 2,000 people from 50 other countries.

At least 20,000 people have escaped into Chad, 4,000 into South Sudan, 3,500 into Ethiopia and 3,000 into the Central African Republic, according to the UN, which warns that if the fighting continues as many as 270,000 people could flee.

Gavin Kelleher, a humanitarian analyst for the Norwegian Refugee Council in South Sudan, said that the country is ill-prepared to absorb the expected influx from the north.

 

 

“The number of new arrivals is still unclear, but they are very likely to continue to increase in the coming weeks and it’s really important that we put the wheels in motion now for an effective humanitarian response,” Kelleher told Arab News.

“About 75 percent of South Sudan’s population are assessed to be in need of humanitarian assistance already, and the majority of the country has emergency or critical levels of food insecurity.

“Further shocks such as waves of new arrivals from Sudan are stretching the limited amount of resources available to new levels.”

 


Kremlin says Putin ready for talks with Trump

Updated 58 min 19 sec ago
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Kremlin says Putin ready for talks with Trump

  • Incoming US president has said he can bring a swift end to the nearly three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine
  • Washington has delivered tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its military offensive

MSOCOW: The Kremlin said Friday that President Vladimir Putin was open to talks with Donald Trump, after the incoming US president said a meeting between the pair was being set up.
Trump, who will be inaugurated on January 20, has said he can bring a swift end to the nearly three-year conflict between Russia and Ukraine, without presenting a concrete plan.
“The president has repeatedly stated his openness to contact with international leaders, including the US president, including Donald Trump,” Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.
Trump on Thursday said a meeting with Putin was being arranged.
“He wants to meet, and we’re setting it up,” Trump said at a meeting with Republican governors at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.
“President Putin wants to meet, he’s said that even publicly, and we have to get that war over with, that’s a bloody mess,” he said.
The Kremlin welcomed Trump’s “readiness to solve problems through dialogue,” Peskov said Friday, adding Moscow had no prerequisites for staging the meeting.
“No conditions are required. What is required is mutual desire and political will to solve problems through dialogue,” he told reporters in a daily briefing.
Trump’s hopes for a swift end to the conflict have stoked concern in Kyiv that Ukraine could be forced to accept a peace deal on terms favorable to Moscow.
Washington has delivered tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale military offensive in February 2022.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that without such support his country would have lost the conflict.
He is pushing Trump to back his “peace-through-strength” proposal, seeking NATO protections and concrete Western security guarantees as part of any settlement to end the fighting.
Ukraine’s foreign ministry dismissed Trump’s comments on any forthcoming meeting with Putin.
“Trump has talked about plans for such a meeting before, so we see nothing new in this,” said spokesman Georgiy Tykhy.
“Our position is very simple: we all in Ukraine want to end the war fairly for Ukraine, and we see that President Trump is also determined to end the war,” he said, according to the Interfax Ukraine news agency.
Tykhy said Ukraine was preparing for high-level discussions between Kyiv and Washington “immediately” after the inauguration, including between Trump and Zelensky.


The Supreme Court is considering a possible TikTok ban. Here’s what to know about the case

Updated 10 January 2025
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The Supreme Court is considering a possible TikTok ban. Here’s what to know about the case

  • Three appeals court judges have sided with the government and upheld the law, which bans TikTok unless it’s sold
  • The justices largely hold the app’s fate in their hands as they hear the case Friday

WASHINGTON: The law that could ban TikTok is coming before the Supreme Court on Friday, with the justices largely holding the app’s fate in their hands.
The popular social media platform says the law violates the First Amendment and should be struck down.
TikTok’s parent company is based in China, and the US government says that means it is a potential national security threat. Chinese authorities could force it to hand over sensitive data on the huge number of Americans who use it or could influence the spread of information on the platform, they say.
An appeals court has upheld the law, which bans TikTok unless it’s sold.
The law is set to take effect Jan. 19, the day before a new term begins for President-elect Donald Trump, who has 14.7 million followers on the platform. The Republican says he wants to “save TikTok.”
Here are some key things to know about the case:
Is TikTok banned?
Not now, but the short-form video-sharing app could be shut down in less than two weeks if the Supreme Court upholds the law.
Congress passed the measure with bipartisan support, and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, signed it into law in April.
TikTok’s lawyers challenged the law in court, joined by users and content creators who say a ban would upend their livelihoods. TikTok says the national security concerns are based on inaccurate and hypothetical information.
But a unanimous appeals court panel made up of judges appointed by both Republican and Democratic presidents has upheld the law.
When will the Supreme Court decide?
The justices will issue a decision after arguments Friday, a lightning-fast movement by court standards.
The conservative-majority court could drop clues about how it’s leaning during oral arguments.
TikTok lawyers have urged the justices to step in before the law takes effect, saying even a monthlong shutdown would cause the app to lose about one-third of its daily American users and significant advertising revenue.
The court could quickly block the law from going into effect before issuing a final ruling, if at least five of the nine justices think it is unconstitutional.
What has Trump said about it?
The law is to take effect Jan. 19, the day before Trump takes over as president.
He took the unusual step of filing court documents asking the Supreme Court to put the law on hold so that he could negotiate a deal for the sale of TikTok after he takes office. His position marked the latest example of him inserting himself into national issues before he takes office. It also was a change from his last presidential term, when he wanted to ban it.
Parent company ByteDance has previously said it has no plans to sell. Trump met with TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida, last month.
Who else is weighing in?
Free-speech advocacy groups like the ACLU and the Electronic Frontier Foundation have urged the court to block the law, saying the government hasn’t shown credible evidence of harm and a ban would cause “extraordinary disruption” in Americans’ lives.
On the other side, Sen. Mitch McConnell, the Republican former Senate leader, and a group of 22 states have filed briefs in support, arguing that the law protects free speech by safeguarding Americans’ data and preventing the possible manipulation of information on the platform by Chinese authorities.


State-run Pakistan International Airlines resumes direct flights to Europe after EU lifts ban

Updated 10 January 2025
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State-run Pakistan International Airlines resumes direct flights to Europe after EU lifts ban

  • The curb was imposed in 2020 after 97 people died when a PIA plane crashed in Karachi
  • The ban caused a loss of nearly $150 million a year in revenue for the flag carrier

ISLAMABAD: State-run Pakistan International Airlines resumed direct flights to Europe on Friday following a decision by the European Union’s aviation safety agency to lift a four-year ban over safety standards, officials said.
Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif inaugurated the twice-a-week flights to Paris and vowed that PIA will expand its operations to other European countries soon.
The flight from Islamabad was fully booked with more than 300 passengers, the airline said.
Asif said in a speech that the European Union Aviation Safety Agency had imposed the ban on PIA’s operations to Europe because of an “irresponsible statement” by a former aviation minister.
The curb on PIA was imposed in 2020 after 97 people died when a PIA plane crashed in Karachi in southern Pakistan. Then-Aviation Minister Ghulam Sarwar Khan said an investigation into the crash found that nearly a third of Pakistani pilots had cheated on their pilot’s exams. A government probe later concluded that the crash was caused by pilot error.
The ban caused a loss of nearly $150 million a year in revenue for PIA, officials say.
Meanwhile, the first international flight was scheduled to depart from Gwadar, a new airport in southwestern Pakistan, later Friday. The Chinese-funded airport was inaugurated by Chinese Premier Li Qiang in October.
The airport, Pakistan’s largest, is located in restive southwestern Balochistan province and is part of a massive investment by Beijing that links a deep seaport and airport on the Arabian Sea by road with China.


Tajikistan bets on giant dam to solve electricity crisis

Updated 10 January 2025
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Tajikistan bets on giant dam to solve electricity crisis

  • Tajikistan is reviving the colossal project, first planned by Soviet authorities in 1976, before being abandoned due to the end of communist rule
  • The plant will not only generate enough power to use domestically, but could supply other Central Asian countries and even Afghanistan, Pakistan

ROGUN: In a remote village in Tajikistan’s soaring mountains, Muslikhiddin Makhmudzoda relies on a mobile phone to light his modest home as his family spends another winter without electricity.
Makhmudzoda’s three children and wife were sitting huddled together to share the phone’s flashlight in their modest brick home.
A shortage of water needed to fuel hydroelectric plants has led to serious power outages in Tajikistan, a poor former Soviet republic nestled in the Central Asian mountains and surrounded by Afghanistan, China, and fellow ex-Soviet states Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
The power crisis is only set to worsen, as Central Asia is hard-hit by climate change.
Amid chronic shortages, Tajikistan has promised it will end the power outages and has revived a Soviet-era mega-project to build the world’s highest dam.
Makhmudzoda’s family spend much of their day without power.
“We have electricity from 5:00 am to 8:00 am and then from 5:00 p.m. until 11:00 pm,” the 28-year-old said.
To cope with intermittent power supplies, the family resorts to using a charcoal stove for heating — a risky choice, since many Tajiks die from carbon monoxide poisoning each year caused by such appliances.
Every year, the impoverished country’s state electricity company Barqi Tojik restricts power supplies starting in September to prevent the system’s collapse during the coldest months.
It says this is an “inevitable measure” as demand has skyrocketed.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the small country’s population has doubled to 10 million, with economic growth steady at around eight percent after decades of stagnation.
The rationing is also due to falling water levels in reservoirs used to drive turbines in hydroelectric power plants, which provide 95 percent of Tajikistan’s electricity.
Authorities say “feeble rainfall” means that water levels in the country’s biggest river — the Vakhsh — are low.
“Every centimeter of water counts,” Barqi Tojik has warned, urging Tajiks to pay their bills to renovate aging infrastructure.
The average salary in Tajikistan hovers around $190 (180 euros) a month.
But the government is now promising that all these inconveniences will soon be a thing of the past thanks to the construction of a massive dam and plant.
Tajikistan has placed its bets on Rogun, planned to become the most powerful hydropower plant in Central Asia. It is set to have the highest dam in the world at 335 meters (1,100 feet).
When completed, the plant is intended to produce some 3,600 megawatts — the equivalent of three nuclear power stations.
Tajikistan is reviving the colossal project, first planned by the Soviet authorities in 1976, before being abandoned due to the end of communist rule and then the Tajik civil war.
At the site, dozens of bulldozers go up and down the mountains and dozens of kilometers of underground tunnels are equipped with giant turbines.
Some 17,000 people are working on the site which lies west of the capital Dushanbe, in the foothills of the Pamir Mountains.
The site is already partially functioning but it is not known when construction will be finished.
Giant banners showing President Emomali Rahmon — in power for 32 years — hang over the construction site.
Rahmon has stressed the importance of the dam, calling it a “palace of light,” the “pride of the Tajik nation” and the “construction project of the century.”
Surrounded by giant machinery, engineer Zafar Buriyev said he was certain the dam would end power cuts.
“Once the construction at Rogun is finished, Tajikistan will completely come out of its electricity crisis,” he told AFP.
He stood in what he called “the heart of the dam” in between giant peaks.
“By next summer, this area will be submerged and the water will reach an altitude of 1,100 meters and then eventually 1,300.”
Authorities have said the plant will not only generate enough electricity to use domestically, but could supply other Central Asian countries — and even nearby Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Water resources have long been a source of tension between Central Asian countries as they suffer shortages.
The plant’s technical director Murod Sadulloyev told AFP it will help “reinforce the unified energy system” in Central Asia — a concept dating back to the USSR that enables the former Soviet republics to exchange water and electricity.
Tajikistan’s neighbors are also working to revive Soviet-era energy projects.
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have pledged to build the Kambar-Ata hydroelectric power plant jointly in a mountainous area of Kyrgyzstan.
Tajikistan’s Rogun project has been criticized for its constantly rising cost — currently more than $6 billion — and its environmental impact, while information on Kambar-Ata has been classified as secret.
The Central Asian power plants are being built in the context of dire climatic realities.
According to the UN, Central Asia is “warming more rapidly than the global average.”


Kyiv begins mass operation to seal borders for draft evaders

Updated 10 January 2025
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Kyiv begins mass operation to seal borders for draft evaders

  • Kyiv has been driving a large-scale mobilization campaign for months to boost its military
  • Mobilization has spurred panic among Ukrainian fighting-aged men and has seen thousands flee

KYIV: Ukrainian police said Friday they were conducting hundreds of raids nationwide to shut down routes used by military-aged men to flee the country to avoid military service.
Kyiv has been driving a large-scale mobilization campaign for months to boost its military, which is struggling to hold back Russia’s significantly larger army that is advancing in the east of the country, nearly three years after Moscow invaded.
The divisive campaign has spurred panic among Ukrainian fighting-aged men and has seen thousands flee the country illegally toward Europe, sometimes utilising dangerous smuggling routes over mountains or rivers.
“More than 600 simultaneous searches are being conducted by the SBU (Security Services of Ukraine) operatives and National Police investigators,” police said in a statement.
“This is only the first stage of a special operation to block the channels of trafficking of men of military age abroad,” it added.
It said that the operation was primarily targeting the organizers of schemes that aid draft evaders to illegally cross the Ukrainian border. It said it would provide more information on the operation soon.
Police said “criminals” had helped hundreds of people cross the border via illegal routes and that the operation was being conducted across the country.
“Details of the operation will be made public after all investigative actions are completed,” the statement added.
Kyiv has been battling problems with systemic corruption within its military mobilization infrastructure since the beginning of Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
Late last year, Ukrainian former prosecutor general Andriy Kostin resigned after a probe uncovered a large-scale corruption scheme that apparently provided military draft exemptions for government officials.
That followed a decision by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to fire the heads of regional draft offices.