DUBAI: Wracked by economic crisis and the recent conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to break its political paralysis and elect a new president.

There are many contenders for the coveted role, but whoever is chosen by members of the Lebanese Parliament to form the next government will have important implications for the nation’s recovery and trajectory.

If Thursday’s election is successful, it could end the debilitating power vacuum that has prevailed since Michel Aoun’s presidential term ended in October 2022, leaving governance in Lebanon in limbo.

Settling on a candidate is now more urgent than ever, as Lebanon faces mounting pressure to stabilize its political and economic landscape ahead of the impending expiration of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah.

None of Lebanon’s major parliamentary blocs have officially announced a presidential candidate, but several potential contenders have emerged.

One possible candidate is General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, who local media have tipped as the most likely winner.

Widely regarded as politically neutral, Aoun’s military experience and perceived impartiality could bring stability and credibility, both domestically and internationally.

His success would hinge on building a capable Cabinet with a comprehensive plan to stabilize the country’s governance, economic recovery and security, as well as lead postwar reconstruction efforts and the return of those displaced.

Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern territories in accordance with the UN Resolution 1701 would also require delicate maneuvering.

However, his candidacy faces legal hurdles due to a constitutional requirement that two years must pass between his military role and the presidency.

Another potential contender is Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces. As a vocal Hezbollah critic with significant support among some Christian communities, Geagea could appeal to anti-Hezbollah factions.

His extensive political experience and advocacy for reform could help him to prioritize state-building, which many Lebanese see as crucial for the country’s future. His anti-Hezbollah stance could also restructure Lebanon’s stance in regional conflicts and international relations.

However, his polarizing history from Lebanon’s civil war could prove to be a barrier to national unity, raising fears that his candidacy could deepen divisions in Lebanon’s already fragmented political system.

Suleiman Frangieh, head of the pro-Hezbollah Marada movement, is another possibility, but risks alienating Christian communities and international allies.

Hailing from a prominent political dynasty, Frangieh is the grandson of a former president and has himself held various governmental and parliamentary roles. However, being a close ally of Hezbollah and the former Assad regime in Syria makes him a polarizing figure.

Finally, Jihad Azour, a former finance minister and International Monetary Fund official, represents a technocratic option with broad political appeal.

He enjoys support from key factions, including the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt, several Sunni MPs, influential Maronite religious figures and opposition groups.

Azour’s economic expertise could help to address Lebanon’s financial crisis, but some among the opposition view him as a continuation of past administrations.

Securing the presidency in Lebanon requires broad-based political consensus — a challenge in its deeply divided Parliament. Any major faction can block a nomination that does not align with its agenda.

Under Lebanon’s constitution, presidential elections require a two-thirds majority in the first round of parliamentary voting (86 out of 128 members) and a simple majority of 65 votes in subsequent rounds.

The Lebanese president’s powers, as defined by the constitution, reflect a blend of ceremonial and executive functions within a confessional system of governance that allocates political roles based on religious representation.

The president’s powers are limited by those of the prime minister, the council of ministers and Parliament, reflecting Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system established by the 1943 National Pact and reaffirmed by the 1989 Taif Agreement.

Lebanese presidents are traditionally drawn from the Maronite Christian community, as stipulated by the confessional system. This role is critical in maintaining the delicate political balance in the country.

Thursday’s election comes at a turbulent moment for Lebanon and its neighbors, which could impact the vote’s outcome.

Hezbollah has long dominated Lebanon’s political landscape, parliamentary dynamics and government composition. However, its devastating war with Israel, which began in October 2023 and ended with a fragile ceasefire in November 2024, gutted its leadership and depleted much of its public support.

Hezbollah’s failure to deter Israel’s war in Gaza or mount a sufficient defense against Israeli air and ground attacks in southern and eastern Lebanon has raised doubts about its remaining political influence in steering the selection of a presidential candidate.

The election also follows the sudden downfall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, toppled by armed opposition groups after a 13-year civil war. This shift has profoundly impacted Syria’s relationship with Hezbollah and other factions in Lebanon.

Syria’s influence on Lebanon historically included backing Maronite militias, interfering in political decisions, maintaining a 29-year military occupation and facilitating the flow of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah.

The change of power in Damascus adds uncertainty to Lebanon’s already fragile situation.

Regardless of these regional shifts, Lebanon’s next president will face the daunting task of guiding the country out of its economic mire while leading postwar reconstruction efforts.

Lebanon’s economic situation remains dire, with its financial collapse in 2019 described by the World Bank as one of the worst in modern history.

The Lebanese pound has lost more than 98 percent of its value against the US dollar on the black market, leading to hyperinflation and eroding the purchasing power of citizens.

Public services, including electricity, health care and water supply, have nearly collapsed, and unemployment has soared. More than 80 percent of the population now lives below the poverty line, according to the UN.

Efforts to secure international aid, including talks with the IMF, have stalled due to political gridlock and resistance to reforms. The new president will need regional and international standing to rally support for Lebanon’s recovery.

Whoever secures the presidency will face a formidable task in addressing Lebanon’s economic, political and social challenges. The alternative is continued paralysis, with devastating consequences for the country’s future.

BEIRUT: A day before the Lebanese parliament was due to assemble to discuss the election of a president — an office that has remained vacant for more than 26 months — there was a flurry of activity on Wednesday including intensified discussions, communications and declarations.
Reports in the afternoon suggested that Hezbollah’s preferred candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, “may announce his withdrawal from the presidential race,” leaving army chief Gen. Joseph Aoun as the leading contender.
The day was marked by a visit from French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who arrived in Beirut on Tuesday evening and was expected to attend the parliamentary presidential election session on Thursday.
He held meetings with several political and parliamentary figures, during which he reportedly recommended Aoun for “consideration without any preconditions.” This was in relation to the bloc of Hezbollah and Amal Movement MPs who opposed the general’s nomination on the grounds that his election would require a constitutional amendment because he still serves in his capacity as commander of the army.
The head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohammed Raad, was quoted after meeting the French envoy as saying: “Hezbollah will not stand in the way of the Lebanese people’s consensus on the name of a president for the republic.”
Media estimates suggest that Aoun, if he secures the support of Hezbollah and Amal, would win 95 votes in the 128-member parliament. This level of support would mean a constitutional amendment is not needed.
Events leading up to Thursday’s session suggested all parliamentary blocs are committed to attending, which would ensure the quorum required for the election is reached. The presidency has been vacant since former president Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022. Previous attempts to appoint a successor failed amid disagreements between political factions about suitable candidates.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he was feeling “joy for the first time since the presidential vacancy as, God willing, we will have a new president for the republic tomorrow,” raising hopes that the office might finally be filled.
One political observer said there is now the real possibility that “all members of parliament, regardless of their political affiliations, would choose their candidate within the framework of consensus and understanding during the voting sessions, which will remain open as confirmed by the speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, until” a decision is reached.
This renewed optimism was in contrast to the prior skepticism about the possibility that parliamentary blocs would be able to successfully convene a session to elect a president, given their previous failures to reach a consensus on a candidate who could secure a majority in the first round of voting.
The electoral session on Thursday will be the 13th of its kind. During the previous one, in June 2024, the candidate favored by Hezbollah and its allies, former minister and Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh, who was close to the Assad regime in Syria, faced the candidate favored by the Free Patriotic Movement and opposition parties, former Minister of Finance Jihad Azour, who is director of the Middle East and Central Asia department at the International Monetary Fund.
During that session, Frangieh received 51 votes in the first round of voting and Azour 59. When the totals were announced, Hezbollah and Amal MPs withdrew from the session, thereby depriving it of the quorum required for a second round of voting, as stipulated by the constitution.
Against this background of long-running political divisions resulting in deadlock within the parliament, and in light of the war between Israel and Hezbollah, the number of presidential candidates has dwindled from 11 to just a few names. Aside from Aoun, Frangieh and Azour, the other candidates whose names continued to circulate to varying degrees on Wednesday included Samir Geagea, the head of the Lebanese Forces party, which heads the parliament’s biggest Christian bloc. However, he is fiercely opposed by Hezbollah.
Less-discussed candidates include the acting chief of Lebanon’s General Security Directorate, Elias Al-Bayssari; MP Ibrahim Kanaan, who resigned from the Free Patriotic Movement to join the Independent Consultative Parliamentary Gathering; and former ambassador Georges Al-Khoury, a retired brigadier general. Al-Khoury has the support of Maronite Patriarchate, Speaker Berri and the Free Patriotic Movement, but the majority of the opposition rejects his candidacy.
MP Neemat Frem, who has presented a political and economic vision for the country, is also a candidate. He is on good terms with the Patriarchate and the opposition. Others include Farid Al-Khazen, who is also on good terms with Berri and close to the Patriarchate, and Ziad Baroud, a human rights activist and former minister of interior who is seen as a consensus candidate.
The parliamentary blocs continued to hold talks on Wednesday afternoon to discuss preferred candidates. Lebanese Forces MP Fadi Karam said: “Starting today, there has been a significant shift toward having Joseph Aoun as a president.”
During a meeting on Wednesday, the Maronite Archbishops Council called for “a national parliamentary awakening that leads tomorrow to the election of a president who brings together the country’s sons and daughters within the framework of national unity, solidarity and reform, allowing Lebanon to regain its leading role in the East.”
The archbishops said: “The opportunity has become appropriate and available for national deliberation on the importance of Lebanon’s progress toward a positive neutrality that saves the country from the damage of conflicts and drives it toward a healthy cycle of one fruitful national life.”