Erdogan scents victory as Turkish presidential election goes to a runoff

The elections that were held in Turkiye on Sunday produced both conclusive and inconclusive results.
The parliamentary elections concluded with the victory of the present government coalition, composed of the ruling Justice and Development Party, known as the AKP, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party and the New Welfare Party. This coalition obtained 49.9 percent of the votes, giving it 322 seats in the parliament, while the opposition coalition obtained 35 percent and 213 seats. The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, which promised to support the opposition coalition, obtained 10.5 percent of the votes and earned 65 seats in the parliament.
As the parliamentary majority will be held by the present government coalition, all that the opposition coalition will be able to do is prevent the adoption of any decision that requires a qualified majority.
In the presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan got 49.5 percent of the votes. Therefore, there will be a runoff. Erdogan has a better chance of winning the second round because he will mobilize all potentials of the state to ensure his victory.
The elections unfolded amid relative calm, without any major events. The atmosphere was tense until a few days ago. In the eastern province of Erzincan, stones were thrown at Ekrem Imamoglu, the mayor of Istanbul, as he was addressing a meeting of his party. He would have been a candidate for the post of deputy president of the republic if the opposition coalition had won the election. Some participants in the meeting were wounded by the stones aimed at Imamoglu. The police did not do anything to prevent the incident.
If Erdogan emerges victorious in the second round, he will either continue the policies he has followed so far or he might make some adjustments in light of the lessons he has drawn from past experience. Both options are likely.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu will face Erdogan in the runoff and, if he were to win, more options are likely because the composition of the opposition in parliament may cause problems for the parties that make up this bloc.
As far as Turkiye’s foreign policy after the elections is concerned, there are several options. If Erdogan remains as president, the country’s foreign policy is likely to remain more or less unchanged. But if Kilicdaroglu manages to become president, some changes are almost certain. The most important one will probably be regarding Turkiye’s Syria policy. Kilicdaroglu strongly supports the withdrawal of the Turkish military presence from Syria and sending back as many Syrian refugees as possible.
Another area where Kilicdaroglu may take the initiative is Turkiye’s accession process to the EU. This does not mean that accession may materialize any time soon, but it may make more efforts to fulfill the EU’s Copenhagen political convergence criteria and Maastricht economic criteria. Kilicdaroglu may also seek ways to find an accommodation with Greece.
Regarding Turkiye’s relations with Middle Eastern countries, Kilicdaroglu may return to Ankara’s traditional policy of not taking sides in inter-Arab conflicts. He also seems to be intent on putting an end to Erdogan’s strong bias in favor of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Another presidential contender, Sinan Ogan, got 5.2 percent of the votes in the first round. He participated in the presidential race in order to be able to negotiate concessions with Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. He is politically closer to the present opposition coalition, but he is strongly against its cooperation with the pro-Kurdish party. Therefore, he has become an important stakeholder in the delicate balance between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu.
Another minor contender for the presidential election was Muharrem Ince of the Homeland Party. He was also running in order to negotiate with the potential presidents, but he decided to withdraw from the race three days before the election. His name remained on ballots and he obtained 0.3 percent of the votes.
Ince was originally a member of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, known as the CHP. He ran against Erdogan for the presidential post in 2018 and got 30.8 percent of the votes. But these were mainly the CHP’s votes, not Ince’s. This time, having given up on the presidential race, he encouraged his members to vote for the Homeland Party. This was a futile suggestion, because the party’s votes are almost insignificant. Therefore, such votes would be wasted.

Erdogan has a better chance of winning the second round.

Yasar Yakis

The government did not miss the opportunity to harshly criticize the failure to cope with floods caused by heavy rains on the day before the elections. These occurred in municipalities held by the opposition, while the government kept silent about similar floods in municipalities held by the AKP.
Just days before the elections, Kilicdaroglu made an unnecessary statement that cast a shadow on Turkish-Russian relations. Referring to Russia, he said: “If you want the continuation of our friendship after May 15, get your hands off the Turkish state. We are still in favor of cooperation and friendship.” Kilicdaroglu said this one day before Ince gave up in the presidential race. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected claims of Russian interference. He said: “We officially declare, there can be no talk of any interference. If someone provided Mr. Kilicdaroglu with such information, they are liars.” Erdogan followed up Peskov’s statement by saying: “If you attack Putin, I will not tolerate this.” Kilicdaroglu claimed that he would not have raised this subject if he did not have evidence of possible interference by Russia.
Russia is a country that is important for Turkiye in all circumstances. Ankara and Moscow have so many common interests in their bilateral relations. A nuclear power station is under construction by Russia in Turkiye. It will be owned and operated by Moscow. It would be a pity if such an inadvertent exchange of blame were to leave indelible traces in their relations.

• Yasar Yakis is a former foreign minister of Turkiye and founding member of the ruling AK Party. Twitter: @yakis_yasar