Ahead of Sunday’s runoff, Erdogan gets ‘kingmaker’ Sinan Ogan’s support

Women sit at a stall in front of a campaign truck bearing a portrait of Turkish President and candidate for his reelection Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on May 22, 2023, ahead of on May 28 Turkiye’s presidential run-off. (AFP)
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Updated 23 May 2023
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Ahead of Sunday’s runoff, Erdogan gets ‘kingmaker’ Sinan Ogan’s support

  • Ultranationalist, anti-refugee Ogan won 5.2 percent in May 14 vote
  • ‘Opposition in disarray, but uncertainty remains over outcome’

ANKARA: With neither presidential candidate passing the 50 percent threshold needed for an outright win, Turkiye’s voters head for a second round on Sunday to decide who will be their next leader.
In the first round, incumbent 69-year-old President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gained around 2.5 million more votes than his 74-year-old rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu. However, Erdogan’s 49.5 percent of the votes was not enough for an outright victory against Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9 percent.
In the first round, 54 million people cast their votes, among them 5 million first-time voters. The turnout for the presidential elections in the first round was the highest in the country’s history, at 87 percent.
The ruling government coalition, the Justice and Development Party and its nationalist and Islamist allies, secured a majority in parliament.
After failing to grasp a parliamentary majority, the center-left, pro-secular opposition, with a new campaign slogan “Decide for Turkiye,” now face a serious challenge in delivering on their pledge to gain the presidency.
After his first-round loss, the opposition’s joint presidential candidate Kilicdaroglu repeated his earlier promises to repatriate all refugees within two years and to reduce Turkiye’s dependence on Russia.
Kilicdaroglu also adopted a more aggressive and nationalistic tone, claiming Erdogan had purposely allowed the entry of 10 million refugees into the country and that millions more may come if Erdogan wins another term.
Kilicdaroglu also accused Russia of meddling in Turkiye’s elections with deepfake content, montages and conspiracies.
Meanwhile, both candidates tried to lure voters from Sinan Ogan, 55, the ultranationalist and anti-refugee third candidate, who won 5.2 percent in the May 14 vote although being a little-known fringe politician. But now potential kingmaker Ogan has announced his support for the Erdogan-led ruling coalition for the runoff.
During an interview with the state-run TRT channel on Monday, Erdogan thanked Ogan for his support. He said Ogan “knows very well our stance on fighting terrorism, relations with the Turkic world and the survival of our country.”
Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy was supported by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, or the HDP, particularly in the country’s southeast. Therefore any alliance with Ogan, a vocal Turkish nationalist, could bear the risk of alienating the Kurdish voters who voted for Kilicdaroglu because Ogan explicitly made clear his objection to giving any concessions to the HDP.
The big question now is how Ogan’s presence in the ruling government coalition will influence the voting of about 167,000 eligible Syrian nationals. This is because Ogan insists on a timetable for the repatriation of some 3.7 million Syrian refugees.
Speaking to TRT, Erdogan announced that 450,000 Syrian refugees had returned home after the provision of houses by Turkiye in Syria, and added that the government was planning to send back another 1 million.
Still, nothing is cast in stone and the current political picture is full of uncertainties, particularly with the potential impact of young voters and 8.3 million undecided Turks who abstained from voting in the first round.

The parliamentary majority of the ruling government, however, increases Erdogan’s likelihood of reelection for the presidency as voters are likely to vote for him to avoid a split government, analysts say. This is because a Kilicdaroglu win in the runoff would see him have trouble getting his policies passed through parliament.
Bidding for a third five-year term, Erdogan’s control of state institutions and much of the news media, where he labeled the opposition as a supporter of “terror groups” with alleged fabricated videos, has made Kilicdaroglu’s efforts to convince voters much more difficult while retaining his current electoral base.
Meanwhile, there are already worrying signs that the economic crisis might worsen after the elections with a rise in the selloff of Turkish assets. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development recently reduced its 2023 growth forecast for Turkiye from 3 percent to 2.5 percent.
Daron Acemoglu, a well-known Turkish economic professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has warned that Turkiye could only address the current crisis by either returning to orthodox policies or imposing tight capital controls.
For Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, Ankara office director of the German Marshall Fund, Ogan’s potential to persuade those who voted for him in the first round of the presidential election to vote either for Erdogan or Kilicdaroglu is exaggerated.
“His voters were not uniform. Some were secular nationalists who did not want to vote for Erdogan. Others were opposition supporters who did not want to vote for Kilicdaroglu. In either case, Ogan was a ‘placeholder’ and not the primary factor driving voter behavior,” he told Arab News.
Despite Ogan’s support, it is still uncertain whether all of his supporters would vote for Erdogan because Ogan’s “Ancestral Alliance,” a grouping of the Victory Party, Justice Party and two other small nationalist parties, has already splintered.
Victory Party chairman Umit Ozdag, known for his harsh anti-refugee discourse, will announce his position soon, while another coalition partner of Ogan, Justice Party Chairman Vecdet Oz, has already announced his support for Kilicdaroglu.
For Unluhisarcikli, it is likely that the fringe political parties that supported Ogan will endorse Kilicdaroglu, which would do more than counterbalance Ogan’s decision.
“Finally, Ogan’s first-round voters still have an easy third choice besides voting for either of the presidential candidates. They could just stay home,” he said.
As Ogan’s supporters are mostly known for their dislike of both presidential candidates, many of these protest voters could decide simply not to vote in the second round.
Atila Kaya, a former nationalist lawmaker who backed Ogan’s candidacy in the first round, condemned his decision to support the ruling coalition, in a tweet: “If you expect that you can design the future you desire from the will of ‘one man,’ it means you have never been familiar with the tradition you are trying to articulate with!”
On Wednesday night, Kilicdaroglu’s interview on Babala TV, a YouTube talk show channel featuring impassioned interviews with political leaders and attracting millions of views, will be broadcast.
His performance, where he will be asked questions by a young and critical audience mostly picked from the ruling government’s voters, is expected to influence the deep-rooted prejudices against him on a range of issues and to convince undecided voters to a certain extent.
 


Missile launched from Yemen into Israel intercepted, Israeli army says

Updated 26 April 2025
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Missile launched from Yemen into Israel intercepted, Israeli army says

CAIRO: The Israeli army said in the early hours of Saturday that a missile that was launched from Yemen was intercepted before crossing into Israeli territory.
Sirens sounded in a number of areas in Israel following the launch, the Israeli army added in a statement.
There was no immediate comment from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, who have been launching attacks against Israel as well as ships they perceive as affiliated to Israel, in what they say is to support the Palestinians in Gaza against the Israeli offensive on the enclave.


Former Lebanese PM Diab questioned over Beirut port blast

Updated 25 April 2025
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Former Lebanese PM Diab questioned over Beirut port blast

  • Investigation gains momentum as French official files transferred to Judge Tarek Bitar
  • Lebanese President Aoun reiterates importance of judiciary in securing broader reform

BEIRUT: Former Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab appeared before Judge Tarek Bitar on Friday for questioning related to the devastating Beirut port explosion of Aug. 4, 2020. 

Diab was interrogated for two and a half hours before being remanded for further questions. The session came a week after Bitar questioned former Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk.

In recent weeks, former General Security Chief Maj. Gen. Abbas Ibrahim and former Head of State Security Maj. Gen. Tony Saliba also appeared before the judge.

The explosion devastated the capital’s waterfront, resulted in thousands of casualties, and has been compared in scale to a nuclear bomb.

It prompted widespread outrage both at home and abroad due to the long-term neglect in safely storing large quantities of ammonium nitrate at the port.

Diab, who was prime minister at the time of the explosion, had previously failed to attend hearings into the disaster for various reasons, notably claiming that “the investigative judge lacked jurisdiction to question” him, or stating that he was abroad.

For more than 18 months, several individuals contested their summons, arguing that Bitar was not the appropriate authority to investigate them.

They also initiated lawsuits against Bitar, whose work was suspended for a significant period due to political pressures and legal challenges.

During their unexpected appearances before the investigative judge, these individuals all expressed their intention to cooperate.

In Lebanon, political and judicial powers are intertwined, contrary to the constitution’s separation of powers principle.

The judiciary is mostly subject to political pressure, starting with judicial appointments, as with other institutions and administrations, which hinders reform efforts and the full independence of the judiciary.

A ministerial source told Arab News that President Joseph Aoun had always stressed two key pillars essential for the state’s recovery are security and the judiciary.

“The security appointments have been finalized, and measures are in place to restore security.

“The minister of justice and the High Judicial Council are actively working on judicial appointments to restore processes free from political interference and corruption.

“These procedures have started to affect the justice system, and everyone has begun to understand that the authority of the judiciary is not negotiable; the previously accepted method is no longer valid.”

The source emphasized that gaining political support for the judiciary is essential to shield it from interference.

This should be prioritized, particularly in light of the president’s commitment to maintaining judicial independence.

Additionally, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is dedicated to implementing the ministerial statement that received unanimous support through the vote of confidence in his government, said the source.

Political authorities are still debating the law on judicial independence, but it remains unapproved and is currently stalled in joint parliamentary committees.

Aoun has previously stressed his belief in the judiciary as a cornerstone of reform.

In a recent meeting with the Bar Association, he noted that the challenge is not the coubtry’s laws themselves, but their implementation and accountability for violations.

“Too often, laws are interpreted for personal gain and interests. By working together, individuals committed to justice and accountability can address imbalances, fight corruption, and promote responsibility,” he said.

“Only the judiciary has the authority to deter offenders and corruption,” the president added.

Currently, the High Judicial Council is investigating bribery cases involving several judges and has issued a preliminary arrest warrant for one of them, who was arrested and transferred to the prison run by the General Directorate of Internal Security Forces.

The council recently set up three bodies to investigate cases against judges.

Lawyer Ghida Frangieh — who represents victims of the Beirut port explosion — told Arab News that the “renewed cooperation between the Public Prosecution and investigative Judge Bitar is a crucial development.

“It will help revive the port explosion case and allow the investigation to continue until an indictment is issued and, ultimately, a trial takes place,” Frangieh said.

“The election of the republic’s president, setting up a functional government instead of a caretaker government, and the political will for reform would collectively help reactivate Lebanon’s judicial system.

“This should have been the scenario in the port investigations three years ago, and all pending judicial cases should now be addressed and resolved in due order,” Frangieh added.

A French delegation is set to arrive in Beirut next Monday, following the transfer of judicial summons from the Public Prosecution at the Court of Cassation in Lebanon to France.

Bitar has requested access to French investigations regarding the port explosion, and the French judiciary has expressed willingness to support the judge by providing all necessary files and documents for his investigation.

Several French nationals were among those killed and injured in the Beirut port explosion.


US says blast near UNESCO world heritage site caused by Houthi missile

A picture shows a view of UNESCO-listed buildings in the old city of the Yemeni capital Sanaa on July 12, 2023. (AFP file photo)
Updated 26 April 2025
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US says blast near UNESCO world heritage site caused by Houthi missile

  • A Houthi official was quoted by the New York Times as saying the American denial was an attempt to smear the Houthis

WASHINGTON: The US military said a blast on Sunday near a UNESCO world heritage site in Yemen’s capital city of Sanaa was caused by a Houthi missile and not an American airstrike.
The Houthi-run Health Ministry said a dozen people were killed in the US strike in a neighborhood of Sanaa. The Old City of Sanaa is a recognized UNESCO World Heritage Site.
The US ordered the intensification of strikes on Yemen last month, with officials saying they will continue assaulting Houthis until they stop attacking Red Sea shipping.
A US Central Command spokesperson said the damage and casualties described by Houthi officials “likely did occur,” but a US attack did not cause them.
The spokesperson said the closest US strike was more than 5 km away that night.
The US military assessed that the damage was caused by a “Houthi air defense missile” based on a review of “local reporting, including videos documenting Arabic writing on the missile’s fragments at the market,” the spokesperson said, adding the Houthis subsequently arrested Yemenis.
A Houthi official was quoted by the New York Times as saying the American denial was an attempt to smear the Houthis.
Recent US strikes have killed dozens, including 74 at an oil terminal on Thursday in what was the deadliest strike in Yemen under Trump so far, according to the local Health Ministry.
The US military says the strikes aim to cut off the Houthi militant group’s military and economic capabilities.
Rights advocates have raised concerns about civilian killings, and three Democratic senators, including Sen. Chris Van Hollen, wrote to Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth on Thursday, demanding an accounting for the loss of civilian lives.
The Houthis have taken control of swaths of Yemen over the past decade.
Since November 2023, they have launched drone and missile attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, saying they were targeting ships linked to Israel.

 


Flow of Sudan war refugees puts Chad camp under strain

Sudanese refugees fill jerry cans with water at the Touloum refugee camp in the Wadi Fira province, Chad, on April 8, 2025. (AFP
Updated 25 April 2025
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Flow of Sudan war refugees puts Chad camp under strain

  • Chad has taken in more than 770,000 of them, according to the UN refugee agency — with many more likely on their way

IRIBA, Chad: Nadjala Mourraou held her haggard two-year-old son in her henna-tattooed hands for the medics to examine. Then came the painful diagnosis: little Ahma, like many of his fellow Sudanese refugees, was severely malnourished.
The pair were toward the front of a long line snaking out of the doctors’ tent at an already overcrowded refugee camp in east Chad, creaking under the strain as more and more people fleeing the civil war across the nearby border with Sudan turn up.
“We’re suffering from a lack of food,” complained the mother, who fled the fighting in Nyala, in Sudan’s South Darfur region, with Ahma more than a year ago.
Since their arrival at the Touloum camp, Mourraou added that all she and Ahma had to eat each day was a bowl of assida, a porridge made from sorghum.
Yet, as with other conditions at the camp, this meagre ration could deteriorate further as the war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces drags on.
Besides killing tens of thousands, the two-year conflict has uprooted 13 million people, more than three million of whom have fled the country as refugees.
Chad has taken in more than 770,000 of them, according to the UN refugee agency — with many more likely on their way.
Between 25,000 and 30,000 Sudanese refugees already live in the makeshift sheet metal and white canvas tents, packed together across the arid Touloum camp, according to sources.
Recently, more and more of them have become malnourished, said Dessamba Adam Ngarhoudal, a nurse with medical charity Doctors Without Borders, or MSF.
“Out of 100 to 150 daily consultations, nearly half of them deal with cases of malnutrition,” said the 25-year-old medic.
The worst cases are sent to the Iriba district hospital, around half an hour’s drive away.
But the hospital was powerless to stop the first Sudanese infant dying of malnutrition under its care.
“Since the beginning of the month, we have already exceeded the capacity of the malnutrition ward at the hospital,” said MSF nurse Hassan Patayamou recently.
“And we expect admissions to continue to rise as the hot season progresses and temperatures rise above 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit).”
With the fighting set to grind on, Chad’s government fears the number of Sudanese refugees in the country could soon reach nearly a million.
That burden would be too heavy for impoverished Chad to bear alone, argues the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.
The refugee agency was seeking $409 million in aid to help the Sahel country — only 14 percent of which it had received by the end of February.
“The Chadian people have a tradition of welcoming their Sudanese brothers in distress,” said Djimbaye Kam-Ndoh, governor of Wadi Fira province where the Touloum camp is located.
“But the province’s population has practically doubled, and we’re asking for major support.”
Humanitarian groups are worried about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s move to freeze America’s foreign aid budget, while other donors, notably in Europe, have also made cuts to their financing.
“Hundreds of thousands of lives are at stake,” Alexandre Le Cuziat, the UN’s World Food Programme deputy director in Chad, said in a phone call.
Nearly 25 million people are suffering from acute food insecurity in Sudan itself, according to the WFP.
And with the rainy season just under two months away, medics fear outbreaks of diseases.
“We’re preparing for an explosion of cases of malnutrition and malaria,” said Samuel Sileshi, emergencies services coordinator for MSF in Central Darfur state.
“This year, we are also facing measles epidemics in Darfur,” he said.
That unhealthy cocktail of diseases, he warned, “could have devastating consequences,” not least for children.

 


WFP says has depleted all its food stocks in Gaza

Updated 25 April 2025
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WFP says has depleted all its food stocks in Gaza

  • Entry of all humanitarian aid has been blocked by Israel since March 2

GAZA CITY, Palestinian Territories: The UN’s World Food Programme on Friday warned it has depleted all its food stocks in war-ravaged Gaza, where the entry of all humanitarian aid has been blocked by Israel since March 2.
“Today, WFP delivered its last remaining food stocks to hot meals kitchens in the Gaza Strip. These kitchens are expected to fully run out of food in the coming days,” WFP said in a statement.