The incursion of Israeli forces into the Palestinian refugee camp of Rafah once again brings to the fore the Arab-Israeli problem as the most pressing concern facing the Middle East. Long before the war in Iraq and, it seems, long after some semblance of order will have been restored in that country, the intifada remains the core issue on which a settlement depends.
Recent signs indicate that Israel is taking steps to begin treating the problem. Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon says he will meet with his new Palestinian counterpart Mahmud Abbas soon after he swears in his Cabinet. The White House is also pressing Israel on a host of confidence-building measures: Releasing Palestinian prisoners, expediting the transfer of funds belonging to the Palestinian Authority, withdrawing its troops from Palestinian cities and easing restrictions on travel and work to help get the new Palestinian administration on its feet.
But such steps were not supposed to include the attack on Rafah, which has killed five Palestinians thus far and wounded more than 30.
The Rafah raid comes shortly before a so-called landmark development in the region: The publication of the long-awaited U.S.-led road map. In his speech to the American Enterprise Institute, President Bush said, “The new government of Israel — as the terror threat is removed and security improves — will be expected to support the creation of a viable Palestinian state — and to work as quickly as possible toward a final status agreement. As progress is made toward peace, settlement activity in the occupied territories must end.” This formulation may sound good in theory, but it faces serious real-world obstacles. Israel is worried about two points in the plan, and they are the very two Bush stated: The freezing of settlements and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The formula that led to the coalition government in Israel was: “The Likud will continue to strengthen and develop these communities (the illegal colonies in the occupied territories) and will prevent their uprooting... The government of Israel flatly rejects the establishment of a Palestinian Arab state west of the Jordan River.”
Part two of the problem resides in the strong disagreements about how the plan should be implemented — should Israel ever decide to do so. The Sharon government wants the process to be performance-driven, so that Israel would not have to take any steps until it was satisfied with what the Palestinians were doing, especially in the field of security. The Palestinians, on the other hand, do not believe for one second that they can ever satisfy Israel and want a clear timetable of steps to be taken by both sides in parallel as well as international observers to enforce them. If there is a third obstacle it is that the Arabs are deeply suspicious of a process led by America at a time when it has bombed, then occupied, Iraq. The argument is that the road map is driven more by a US need to reward some people and placate others than any desire to foster real peace.
Even should America’s motives prove genuine, the Palestinians will still not profit from the mere publication of the road map. As long as Israel continues to reject international law and persists in the wholesale slaughter of the Palestinian people and its occupation of Palestinian lands, the road map will lead to nowhere.
