RIYADH: The UAE economy is expected to grow by 4 percent in 2024, driven by robust performance across key non-oil sectors, according to official projections. 

The Central Bank of the UAE’s Quarterly Economic Review for December indicates that growth will be supported by sectors including tourism, transportation and financial services, as well as insurance, construction, real estate, and communications. 

Looking ahead, growth is projected to accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2025 and 5.5 percent in 2026, as the country continues to benefit from economic diversification policies aimed at reducing its dependence on oil revenues. 

Non-oil GDP growth is forecast to remain robust, expanding by 4.9 percent in 2024 and 5 percent in 2025. 

The report attributed this growth to strategic government policies aimed at attracting foreign investment and promoting economic diversification. 

In the second quarter, non-oil GDP grew by 4.8 percent year on year, compared to 4.0 percent in the first quarter, supported by manufacturing, trade, transportation and storage, and real estate activities. 

In September, the CBUAE revised its GDP growth forecast for the year upward by 0.1 percentage points, citing expected improvements in the oil sector. 

Initially projecting a 3.9 percent growth for 2024, the central bank adjusted the figure to 4 percent. In its second-quarter economic report, the CBUAE forecasted a growth rate of 6 percent for 2025. 

The UAE’s 16 non-oil sectors continued their steady growth in the third quarter of the year, with wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, and construction being key contributors. 

The manufacturing sector has benefited from increased foreign direct investment, aligning with both federal and emirate-level strategies. 

The first nine months of the year also saw strong performance in the construction sector, reflecting significant investment in infrastructure and development projects. 

Non-oil trade exceeded 1.3 trillion dirhams ($353.9 billion) in the first half of the year, representing 134 percent of the country’s GDP, a 10.6 percent year-on-year increase. 

This growth underscores the success of the UAE’s economic diversification agenda and its comprehensive economic partnership agreements with various countries, which have strengthened trade relationships and driven exports.

The UAE has set ambitious economic targets to diversify its economy and reduce dependence on oil revenues.  

Under the We the UAE 2031 vision, the country aims to double its GDP from 1.49 trillion dirhams to 3 trillion dirhams, generate 800 billion dirhams in non-oil exports, and raise the value of foreign trade to 4 trillion dirhams.  

Additionally, the UAE plans to increase the tourism sector’s contribution to GDP to 450 billion dirhams. 

Oil production averaged 2.9 million barrels per day in the first 10 months of the year and is forecasted to grow by 1.3 percent for the year, with further acceleration to 2.9 percent in 2025.  

The fiscal sector also performed strongly in the first half of the year, with government revenue rising 6.9 percent on a yearly basis to 263.9 billion dirhams, equivalent to 26.9 percent of GDP.  

This increase was fueled by a significant 22.4 percent rise in tax revenues. Meanwhile, the fiscal surplus reached 65.7 billion dirhams, or 6.7 percent of GDP, marking a 38.8 percent increase from the 47.4 billion dirhams surplus, or 5.1 percent of GDP, recorded in the first half of 2023.  

Government capital expenditure surged by 51.7 percent year on year to 11 billion dirhams, reflecting the UAE’s commitment to advancing large-scale infrastructure projects and enhancing the country’s economic and investment landscape.

In the private sector, economic activity remained robust, with the UAE’s Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 54.1 in October this year, signaling continued optimism among businesses driven by sustained demand and sales growth.

Dubai’s PMI stood at 53.2 in October, closely aligning with the national average, indicating consistent growth in the emirate’s non-oil private sector.

Employment and wages also showed strong performance, with the number of employees covered by the CBUAE’s Wages Protection System rising by 4 percent year-on-year in September. 

Average salaries increased by 7.2 percent yearly during the same period, reflecting strong domestic consumption and sustainable GDP growth.  

Saudi Aramco’s robust financial standing has been reaffirmed by Moody’s and Fitch, with the agencies assigning strong ratings to the energy giant’s newly established $10 billion US Commercial Paper Program.

Moody’s assigned a Prime-1 short-term issuer rating to the energy giant and reaffirmed its Aa3 long-term issuer rating with a stable outlook, reflecting the company’s ability to meet financial obligations. 

Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings awarded an F1+ short-term rating, highlighting Aramco’s strong intrinsic capacity for timely payments and financial resilience. 

Aramco has established a $10 billion US Commercial Paper Program to issue notes with maturities of up to 270 days. 

Commercial paper is an unsecured, short-term debt instrument issued by corporations, typically used to cover receivables or meet short-term financial obligations, such as funding new projects. 

“Aramco has excellent liquidity. Its consolidated cash balance and operational cash flow are more than sufficient to meet the group’s debt maturities, investment commitments and dividends over the next 12 to 18 months,” said Moody’s. 

As of Sept. 30, the company had $69 billion of cash and cash equivalents. 

The credit rating agency also projected that Aramco is expected to generate $180 billion in funds from operations through March 2026, sufficient to cover $16 billion in debt maturities, $85 billion in capital spending, and $140 billion in dividends over the same period. 

The report also noted that the energy company maintains undrawn $10 billion multi-tranche revolving credit facilities, set to expire in April 2029. 

Fitch echoed similar confidence, noting that Aramco’s financial profile is bolstered by its conservative financial policies, low production costs, and strong pre-dividend free cash flow. 

“Its business profile is characterized by large-scale production, vast reserves, low production costs and expansion into downstream and petrochemicals,” said Fitch Ratings. 

It added: “We expect state support to be forthcoming, although historically the company’s robust financial position has not necessitated government support. Saudi Arabia has provided support to other government-related entities in the past.” 

Assigning an Aa3 baseline credit assessment rating to Aramco, Moody’s stated that the positive rating reflects the company’s proven track record in executing large-scale projects, significant downstream integration, conservative financial policy, and strong financial flexibility, supported by its low production costs. 

“These characteristics provide resilience through oil price cycles and also help balance carbon transition risk, which is a material credit consideration for oil and gas companies,” added Moody’s. 

Both agencies emphasized the strong link between Aramco’s ratings and those of the Saudi government. 

Moody’s highlighted that Aramco’s Aa3 rating reflects the Kingdom’s solid credit standing, recently upgraded to Aa3 by Moody’s in November. The agency added that any changes in the sovereign rating would directly impact Aramco’s ratings. 

Moody’s gives Aa3 ratings to countries which have a very low credit risk and hold the best ability to repay short-term debt. 

“An upgrade of the sovereign rating would likely lead to an upgrade of Aramco’s rating if it maintains prudent financial policies and robust credit metrics. Negative pressure on the sovereign rating will lead to negative pressure on Aramco’s rating,” said Moody’s in the latest report. 

Similarly, Fitch noted that Saudi Arabia’s A+ sovereign rating, affirmed in February, underscores the Kingdom’s strong capacity for financial commitments and its ability to provide support to Aramco if needed. 

Both agencies acknowledged Aramco’s capacity to adapt to market conditions, particularly its ability to adjust dividend commitments in response to oil price fluctuations. In 2024, Aramco delivered a base dividend of $81.2 billion, supported by its strong operating cash flow.