Despite crackdown, Pakistan’s former PM Imran Khan’s popularity, vote bank intact — analysts

Security officers escort Pakistani former Prime Minister Imran Khan as he appeared in Islamabad High Court, Islamabad, Pakistan, May 12, 2023. (Photo courtesy: REUTERS/File)
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Updated 02 June 2023
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Despite crackdown, Pakistan’s former PM Imran Khan’s popularity, vote bank intact — analysts

  • Experts say Khan’s vote bank is still intact despite recent crackdown on party workers, exodus of leaders
  • They say Khan should review anti-establishment policy to galvanize public support, win upcoming elections

ISLAMABAD: Former prime minister Imran Khan still enjoys wide public support, especially in the country’s populous Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, despite a massive crackdown against his supporters and defections of his senior party leaders since the violent protests of May 9.

About a hundred senior party leaders, including Khan’s close aides and former cabinet ministers, announced to quit the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party while condemning the May 9 protests that spread across the country following the ex-premier’s arrest from the Islamabad High Court in a graft case.

Security forces sprang into action against “arsonists and rioters” after protesters carrying the PTI flags stormed and vandalized public buildings and military installations, including the official residence of a top general and the army headquarters in Rawalpindi. Hundreds of Khan’s supporters and senior party leaders were rounded up on charges of inciting violence. Many of them later announced to quit the party and some even said they were going to take a break from politics.

Despite the current hardships of Khan and his party, political analysts said the ex-premier was still “among the most popular leaders” in the country, thought he needed to review his policies to win the next election.

“At the moment, Khan has a direct confrontation with the establishment and no political leader, irrespective of his popularity, can form a government in Pakistan without the establishment,” Sohail Warraich, a senior journalist and political analyst, told Arab News on Friday.

The establishment is a euphemism for the country’s powerful military in Pakistan. Historically, the army has ruled the country for more than half of its 76-year existence and continues to wield considerable power in the matters related to its security and foreign affairs.

The general elections in Pakistan are scheduled to be held in October after the expiry of the five-year term of the national and provincial legislative bodies.

“The electable are leaving the party and many more will quit,” he continued. “But Khan’s vote bank is still intact.”

Warraich said the ex-premier should “review his anti-establishment policy” to galvanize the public in his favor to secure a victory in the upcoming elections.

Since his ouster from power in April last year in a parliamentary no-confidence vote, Khan has been striving to make a political comeback by riding the wave of popularity. Pakistan is a parliamentary democracy where political parties field candidates in constituencies to win a majority to form the government.

Asked about the crackdown against Khan’s party, Zebunnisa Burki, a political analyst, said the recent developments seemed to be an attempt to make the former prime minister irrelevant.

“Apparently, the whole move appears to be suggesting a minus Imran Khan in the upcoming elections,” she said, adding the “powerful circles” in Pakistan seemed to be dismantling PTI into different factions to divide Khan’s public support.

She maintained if the PTI got divided into different groups before the elections, the future of Khan-led party would be bleak since “the electable still enjoy a significant support in their constituencies even without Imran Khan.”

“The PTI defectors may also form a forward bloc to win over the party supporters, but then again the voter still remains loyal to Khan only,” she continued. “There seems to be interesting times ahead in Pakistani politics, but it will be extremely difficult to take Khan out of it.”

PTI leaders and loyalists describe the prevailing circumstances as a “temporary” phase in their party’s history, saying they will not make much difference to their support base.

“The party is still intact, and these defections won’t make any difference to Imran Khan’s popularity,” Sayed Zulfi Bukhari, the ex-premier’s close aide, told Arab News. “This is all very temporary.”

However, Bukhari acknowledged the crackdown was aimed at dismantling the party, though he added these attempts would not succeed as long as the people were supporting Khan.

“Khan still enjoys overwhelming public support across Pakistan and it is even more than before as every arrest is making PTI stronger and resilient,” he said.

Bukhari predicted “70 percent” turnout in the upcoming elections since people were angry to see what was happening to the former prime minister and would do everything to bring him back to power.

“Imran Khan is a symbol of hope for majority of Pakistanis since they believe only he can steer the country out of the current political and economic mess,” he said.

The political parties in Pakistan have suffered defections and desertions in the past when their leaders fell apart from the military establishment, but they still remained part of parliamentary politics with varying strength.

“All surveys and polls suggest one thing: Imran Khan is the most popular leader in Pakistan, especially in Punjab and KP provinces, and his PTI party would sweep the upcoming polls,” Habib Akram, a senior journalist and political commentator, told Arab News.

He said there was no future of any forward bloc or electable without Khan, adding the recent by-elections in the country had “clearly demonstrated that people’s vote is only for Khan.”

“In this age of digital and social media, importance of political parties has increased manifold as people prefer parties over electable while voting,” he said. “As long as Imran Khan is alive and doing active politics, people will vote for him.”


Balochistan youth swap trees for tech as Internet lab bridges digital divide

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Balochistan youth swap trees for tech as Internet lab bridges digital divide

  • Rural innovation lab offers free Internet and digital skills to youth in underserved Bela district
  • Balochistan remains Pakistan’s least connected province despite its size and mineral wealth

LASBELA, Pakistan: When Abrar Roonjha returned to his hometown near Bela in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province during the COVID-19 lockdown, he was faced with a major dilemma: how would he attend online classes without reliable Internet connectivity. 

Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province by area, accounts for nearly 44% of the country’s landmass but only around 6% of its population. Despite its mineral wealth and geostrategic location, the militancy-plagued region remains the country’s most underserved in infrastructure and connectivity.

Combine that with the COVID-19 pandemic, which had a devastating impact on education across Pakistan, with prolonged school closures affecting more than 40 million students nationwide. According to a 2021 UNICEF report, around 23 million school-going children were unable to access remote learning during the pandemic due to limited or no Internet connectivity and a lack of digital devices.

The situation was especially dire in rural and underserved areas like Balochistan, where infrastructure gaps meant many students were entirely cut off from their lessons. 

“I used to hang my mobile phone on a tree and try to connect to its hotspot to continue my studies but it was very difficult,” Roonjha, now 21, told Arab News.

The picture posted on August 30, 2024, by Qaiser Ronjha shows Wang Lab of Innovation in Lasbela in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan. (Qaiser Ronjha)

That changed in 2021 with the launch of the Wang Lab of Innovation (WALI), a free Internet and digital skills center in Roonjha’s village, supported by the Internet Society and run by the Welfare Association for New Generation (WANG), a grassroots organization in Lasbela district.

Since then, nearly 650 youth in the region, many from low-income families, have gained access to high-speed Internet and basic tech education.

For young people like Roonjha, the lab has become a portal to the wider world.

“When the Wang Lab of Innovation was established here, I was able to access high-speed Internet. This brought a major positive change in my life,” said Roonjha, who now leads creative programs at the lab. 

The connectivity also enabled him to attend international forums, including the World Youth Festival in Russia in 2024 and a UN regional conference on sustainable development in Bangkok earlier this year.

DIGITAL DIVIDE IN PAKISTAN’S LARGEST PROVINCE

Despite its vast size, Balochistan remains Pakistan’s least connected province when it comes to Internet access.

According to Freedom House, around 60 percent of the region lacks any Internet coverage, and in areas with service, mobile speeds are often well below the national average of 6.2 Mbps. The Pakistan Telecommunication Authority reports broadband penetration in the province sits at just 15 percent, compared with the national average of 45.7 percent.

Infrastructure challenges, like mountainous terrain, sparse population, and frequent security-related shutdowns, have consistently deterred investment in fiber and mobile networks . While government-backed initiatives like the Universal Service Fund have begun extending 4G and broadband over limited areas of Balochistan, the majority of rural communities still struggle to connect, reinforcing the importance of local projects like the WALI lab.

“WALI has created a vital space, especially for girls, to access knowledge and skills they would otherwise have no means to acquire,” said Aftab Ahmed, 26, a co-founder of the lab.

The picture posted on January 3, 2023, by WALI shows girls using computters at WALI lab in Lasbela in Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan. (WALI)

The initiative is also one of the few local digital literacy efforts led by young people from the region. While national programs like Pakistan’s “Digital Pakistan” campaign have focused on major urban centers, grassroots projects in remote provinces are rare and often underfunded.

The lab is housed in a modest building in the village and is now a daily destination for schoolchildren, university students, and aspiring content creators. Its impact is visible in the confidence and creativity of its youngest users.

Fawaz Qadir, 16, began coming to the lab a year ago. 

“I would come here and learn about different AI tools,” he said, describing how he creates music and short films using Suno AI and Meta’s animation tools. 

“I talk about climate change and how humans have damaged our environment.”

Abdul Hadi, 14, walks two kilometers each day to reach the lab. In just a year, he’s learned to design YouTube banners and navigate the Internet. 

“Things are no longer the way they used to be,” he said.

For Rifat Wasim, 13, a student at the local girls’ school, the lab is her only access to a computer. 

“There’s no laptop or such devices at my home, so I come to the lab, and I enjoy it,” she said. “I’ve learned to browse the Internet, use a computer, and create videos.”

RETHINKING THE FUTURE

Roonjha, the sociology student who once studied under a tree, now teaches children to use artificial intelligence tools. 

“I see that children as young as ten or twelve are creating music using AI, they are making films,” he said.

“They’ve started to understand the possibilities the Internet offers, and how, through AI, they can showcase their work to the world and make their presence felt.”

The WANG initiative remains one of few rural digital labs in the province. Other recent government-supported efforts include the USF, which has launched projects to expand 4G coverage in parts of Balochistan. But for many villages in districts like Lasbela, such access remains a distant promise.

Ahmed, the WALI co-founder, hopes the model can be replicated. 

“Digital inclusion is not just about connectivity, it’s about opportunity,” he said. 

“When children in remote areas have access to the same tools as anyone else, it transforms how they see their future.”


China hosts SCO defense ministers from Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan amid global unrest

Updated 26 June 2025
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China hosts SCO defense ministers from Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan amid global unrest

  • Chinese defense minister calls for ‘robust actions to jointly safeguard the environment for peaceful development’
  • Dong Jun warns ‘hegemonic, domineering and bullying acts’ have been severely undermining the global order

QINGDAO, China: China hosted defense ministers from Iran and Russia for a meeting in its eastern seaside city of Qingdao on Thursday against the backdrop of war in the Middle East and a summit of NATO countries in Europe that agreed to boost military spending.

Beijing has long sought to present the 10-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a counterweight to Western-led power blocs and has pushed to strengthen collaboration between its member countries in politics, security, trade and science.

The Qingdao meeting of the organization’s top defense officials comes as a fledgling ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds after 12 days of fighting between the arch-foes.

It is also being held the day after a summit of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leaders in The Hague, where members agreed to ramp up their defense spending to satisfy US President Donald Trump.

Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun framed Thursday’s meeting of officials in Qingdao, home to a major Chinese naval base, as a counterweight to a world in “chaos and instability.”

“As momentous changes of the century accelerate, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise,” Dong said as he welcomed defense chiefs from Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Belarus and elsewhere on Wednesday, according to state news agency Xinhua.

“Hegemonic, domineering and bullying acts severely undermine the international order,” he warned.

He urged his counterparts to “take more robust actions to jointly safeguard the environment for peaceful development.”

India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, also in attendance in Qingdao, said SCO members should “collectively aspire to fulfil the aspirations and expectations of our people as well as tackle today’s challenges.”

“The world we live in is undergoing a drastic transformation. Globalization, which once brought us closer together, has been losing momentum,” he said in comments posted by his office on X.

And meeting Dong on the sidelines of the summit, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov hailed ties between the two countries as being “at an unprecedentedly high level.”

“Friendly relations between our countries maintain upward dynamics of development in all directions,” he said.

China has portrayed itself as a neutral party in Russia’s war with Ukraine, although Western governments say its close ties have given Moscow crucial economic and diplomatic support.


Pakistan warns global order under ‘immense strain’ at UN Charter anniversary

Updated 26 June 2025
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Pakistan warns global order under ‘immense strain’ at UN Charter anniversary

  • A Pakistani diplomat at the UN warns of growing disregard for international law and resurgence of unilateralism
  • She says multilateralism remains humanity’s best hope to deal with emerging and persistent inter-state conflicts

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Wednesday warned of a global order under “immense strain” as it raised concern over growing violations of international norms and rising unilateral military actions, while addressing the Forum of Small States in New York to mark the 80th anniversary of the United Nations Charter.

The UN Charter, signed in San Francisco on June 26, 1945, laid the foundation for international peace, sovereignty and justice following World War II. Pakistan’s remarks come as the world witnessed two major military crises in South Asia and the Middle East in the last two months.

In May, nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan exchanged artillery fire, drones and missiles in a brief but intense conflict before reaching a ceasefire. Weeks later, Israel launched a large-scale military campaign against Iran, targeting uranium enrichment facilities and nuclear infrastructure in what Tehran called an unprovoked act of war.

“The UN Charter remains our moral compass and legal foundation,” Pakistan’s Counsellor at the UN, Saima Saleem, said. “Yet today, we confront a global order under immense strain— marked by a growing disregard for international law, persistent and emerging conflicts, and a disturbing resurgence of unilateralism.”

“The voices of the vulnerable— especially peoples under foreign occupation, like the people of Jammu and Kashmir and Palestine— remain marginalized and their right to self-determination denied, despite the solemn promises of the Charter,” she added.

Calling for “inclusive multilateralism that delivers,” Saleem urged reforms to strengthen the UN’s effectiveness, including revitalizing the General Assembly’s authority and ensuring impartial implementation of Security Council resolutions.

“Selective application of international law and the UN Charter erodes faith in global governance. Its equal enforcement restores it,” Saleem said.

She also called for concrete action to ensure sustainable development, digital cooperation, youth and gender inclusion, climate resilience and peaceful dispute resolution.

“Multilateralism remains humanity’s best hope,” she said. “It must be re-energized, not replaced.”

The Forum of Small States is an informal group founded by Singapore in 1992. It offers a platform for smaller UN member states to coordinate positions and amplify their voices in global diplomacy. With over 100 members, it is now one of the largest informal blocs at the UN.


Pakistan’s trade deficit with Gulf states widens to $12.4 billion amid free trade agreement talks

Updated 26 June 2025
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Pakistan’s trade deficit with Gulf states widens to $12.4 billion amid free trade agreement talks

  • Pakistan’s exports to GCC rose 16 percent, but higher oil imports widened the trade gap
  • Analysts warn FTA may deepen deficit, citing imbalance in Pakistan-China trade deal

KARACHI: Pakistan’s trade deficit with Gulf nations widened by 14 percent to $12.4 billion in the outgoing fiscal year through May, even as the country pushes for a free trade agreement (FTA) with the six-member Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to boost exports and market access, official statistics show.

The trade gap stood at $10.9 billion during the same period last year, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). Pakistan’s exports to the region grew to $5.08 billion — up 16 percent — while imports rose 14 percent to $17.5 billion.

The GCC includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain.

Shankar Talreja, director of research at Topline Securities, attributed the widening trade imbalance primarily to surging imports from the UAE, Pakistan’s largest oil supplier in the bloc.

“Pakistan’s imports from the UAE have increased by 32 percent in 11MFY25,” Talreja told Arab News from Karachi. “This is a whopping increase of $1.5 billion.”

Overall, imports from the UAE jumped 46 percent to $8.33 billion, while exports to the country totaled $3.96 billion. In contrast, imports from Saudi Arabia dropped 15 percent to $3.47 billion.

The increase in oil imports comes as Pakistan, which heavily depends on petroleum products from the GCC, monitors global crude trends.

Prices spiked by 13 percent to $77 per barrel after Israel attacked Iran on June 13, before easing by 6 percent on June 24 following a ceasefire announcement.

“Pakistan largely relies on petroleum products from the GCC region and overall petroleum import bill in FY26 is unlikely to increase as oil prices are currently 10 percent lower than the average oil price of July-May period,” Talreja noted.

“This lower oil price may offset volumetric increase, leaving overall petroleum import bill unchanged,” he added.

Last year, Pakistan spent $17 billion on oil imports, more than twice the size of its most recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan package. The IMF has urged the government to ramp up exports to stabilize its fragile external account.

To that end, Islamabad is pursuing bilateral and multilateral trade deals, including FTAs with the GCC, South Korea, Vietnam, East Africa and Central Asian states.

While Commerce Ministry spokesperson Muhammad Ashraf did not respond to queries, another official confirmed the FTA was under negotiation.

“The FTA talks with the GCC nations are ongoing but I am not sure if they have finalized anything,” the ministry official said, requesting anonymity as he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Pakistan’s Economic Survey for FY2024-25 mentions both the Pakistan-GCC FTA and the Pakistan-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement as “upcoming agreements.”

However, Talreja expressed skepticism about the potential gains.

“Pakistan has never benefitted from FTAs, like in case of China our deficit with China has further increased,” he said.

Islamabad’s FTA with Beijing, signed in 2006, has consistently produced unfavorable trade outcomes. The bilateral trade deficit with China stands at $2.5 billion this fiscal year, according to SBP figures.

“In the case of the Middle East, I doubt that Pakistan will benefit as it’s a very competitive market due to the global access the GCC has,” Talreja added. “Islamabad could only benefit if it negotiated something extraordinary.”

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government is also pushing to expand trade with the United States, Pakistan’s top textile buyer, by negotiating reciprocal tariffs. Talks are expected to conclude next week.

As part of these discussions under the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, Islamabad is seeking greater access for mangoes, dates and beef in the US market.

Pakistan’s trade prospects in the European Union remain strong after its GSP+ status, granting zero-duty access on 66 percent of tariff lines, was renewed.

A preferential trade agreement with the eight-member Organization for Economic Cooperation also came into force in January.

Still, officials warn that the country’s export profile remains vulnerable due to over-reliance on a handful of markets.

“The overall export trajectory signals Pakistan’s reliance on a few core markets, highlighting the need for diversification and expanded global outreach to minimize exposure to external shocks,” the finance ministry said in its economic survey.


Pakistan issues glacial lake outburst warning for northern areas as temperatures soar

Updated 26 June 2025
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Pakistan issues glacial lake outburst warning for northern areas as temperatures soar

  • Pakistan says intense monsoon currents, soaring temperatures may trigger sudden GLOF events 
  • Authorities say glacial lake outbursts may pose serious threat to humans, livestock and agriculture

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) this week issued a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) alert for the country’s northern areas, citing “persistent high temperatures” and intense monsoon currents as the main reasons. 

Pakistan is consistently ranked among the countries most adversely affected by climate change. Climate change has triggered irregular weather patterns in the country, which include unusually heavy rains, droughts and heat waves. 

In a press release on Wednesday, the NDMA said sustained heat for the past several weeks has accelerated snow and glacier melt in Pakistan’s northern regions.

“The added influence of monsoon rains and thunderstorms have now significantly increased hydrometeorological pressure on glacial lakes, raising the risk of sudden GLOF events,” the NDMA said. 

It said Reshun, Brep, Booni, Sardar Gol, Thalu 1 and 2, Badswat, Hinarchi, Darkut and Hundur valleys are at “heightened risk” in case of a GLOF events. 

“Sudden outbursts from these glacial lakes may trigger flash floods, posing a serious threat to human lives, livestock, and agriculture,” the disaster management authority said.

“Damage to infrastructure such as roads, bridges, and communication networks is likely, and access to remote valleys may be temporarily disrupted.”

The NDMA urged residents, tourists and trekkers to avoid traveling near glaciers, glacial lakes and riverbanks in the identified areas.

It urged locals to stay informed through official alerts and cooperate with authorities on evacuation instructions where necessary.

Floods in 2022, brought by record monsoon rains and glacial melt in northern mountains, killed over 1,700 people and impacted 33 million people out of a population of 220 million. Raging currents swept away homes, vehicles, crops and livestock in damages estimated at $30 billion.