The past as present

The launch of a new political party by Jahangir Khan Tareen, former stalwart of Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) and once his close confidante, marks another phase in Pakistan’s politics. This has followed the disintegration of PTI after the violent events of May 9 which saw angry supporters vandalize military installations and government offices. Leaders and lawmakers began to abandon the party in droves and then rally around Tareen. Finally on June 8, he gathered the deserters in Lahore and announced a new party called Istehkam e-Pakistan Party (IPP). Widely regarded as a ‘King’s party’, backed by the military establishment, its ‘emergence’ mimics what has frequently happened in the past, when such parties were cobbled together to serve a certain political purpose.

Tareen said the party’s aim was to give a new direction to the country’s politics and strengthen the economy. IPP, he claimed would be a “symbol of progress.” However, the old faces present at the launch raised the question of what fresh ideas if any, such a party would really offer. There was the usual group at the Lahore launch of what are called ‘electables’ and several former PTI leaders who were previously considered close to Khan. So, while Khan remains mired in a plethora of legal cases and has to scramble from one court hearing to another, politics is taking another turn with this new old party. PTI spokespersons were quick to denounce IPP as the result of “forced divorces” incapable of solving Pakistan’s problems. But the test of the party’s appeal to the public still lies ahead.

There is little doubt that Khan’s PTI, despite the desertions, retains a significant vote bank, arguably larger than that of rival parties. What can be consequential to the general election later this year is where these voters will go. In the event Khan is disqualified in one of the legal cases against him, the party’s supporters may just stay home, thinking that casting their vote would be futile in such a situation. This could have a significant impact on overall voter turnout.

If the vote divides in a four-sided contest in Punjab, it could deliver a hung Parliament and deny any single party a majority. This would leave the country with a weak and wobbly government, which is the last thing Pakistan needs when the economic crisis requires decisive and bold action

Maleeha Lodhi

The latest figures from the Election Commission of Pakistan confirm that a large proportion of the electorate is comprised of young voters – under 35 years of age. Out of the total size of the electorate of about 126 million, over 56 million are between the ages of 18 and 35 – which is around 45 percent of the electorate. Of course, not all young voters are supporters of PTI, but a large proportion are, as it’s the only party that has managed to attract youth in recent years and has been ahead of this game compared to other parties. Turnout could be quite greatly affected if young voters do not show up at the ballot box. It would also be a loss for democracy as youth engagement is essential for a more representative system.

Can young supporters from PTI’s vote bank be persuaded to vote for the new party? That is an open question. It seems however that some of those who have joined – the electables – may have their individual vote but would not necessarily be able to draw from PTI’s vote bank. Such candidates will also have to contend with another factor. In the past, voters have punished those who shifted their political loyalties. Last year’s Punjab by-election outcome is the most recent case in point. In the 20 seats that were up for re-election in July 2022 after they had to be vacated by dissident PTI lawmakers, Khan’s party swept the poll, winning 15 of these seats as voters renounced those who had deserted PTI. This may have implications for candidates of the IPP. 

Can the two traditional parties, PML-N and PPP, manage to entice some PTI voters? Unlikely as their backing for PTI was predicated on rejection of the two old parties who they regarded as venal and beyond their expiry date. True that the PPP has attracted some defectors from south Punjab, but again it is unclear if such figures will bring PTI voters with them.

It is of course too soon to say how alignments will shape up for the electoral contest ahead. Many other factors will weigh in on voters’ choices. The most important being the dire economic situation and the cost-of-living crisis that people are struggling with. In the face of this, incumbency will likely be a liability, certainly for PML-N that has in any case been steadily losing political ground in Punjab. In the absence of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who has yet to return from abroad, the party doesn’t have an experienced leader who can lead the election campaign and rally support. 

There is another possibility if the vote divides in a four-sided contest in Punjab. It could deliver a hung Parliament and deny any single party a majority. This would leave the country with a weak and wobbly government, which is the last thing Pakistan needs when the economic crisis requires decisive and bold action.

- Maleeha Lodhi is a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, UK & UN. Twitter @LodhiMaleeha