KARACHI: The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) $3 billion bailout deal will provide much-needed fiscal space to Pakistan but not solve the country’s long-term problems, financial experts and economists said on Saturday.
Subject to the IMF’s board approval in July, the stand-by arrangement (SBA) provides breathing space to a Pakistani economy staring at default and in dire need of external financing. The staff-level pact was announced a day before Pakistan’s previous $6.5 billion loan program with the IMF expired.
Cash-strapped Pakistan will get $1.1 billion in funds under the new financing arrangement right after the IMF’s board meeting in mid-July. The new deal provides Pakistan more than the $2.5 billion disbursement it expected to receive under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program that concluded incompletely on June 30, 2023.
“The SBA provides some much-needed space to the Pakistani economy and will most certainly dampen near-term uncertainty,” Uzair Younus, director of the Pakistan Initiative at the Washington-based think tank, the Atlantic Council, told Arab News.
“However, the economy remains in a precarious situation and the government has to try and sort out some of the major issues in the energy sector, reduce distortion in the exchange rate market, and adopt a policy framework that doesn’t just burn the external financing the country has unlocked to achieve near-term political objectives.”
Economists say the deal will only offer Pakistan short-term respite.
“It will not solve long-term problems of paying on average around $25 billion per year for the next three years,” Dr. Ikram ul Haq, a Lahore-based senior economist, told Arab News.
The new deal came through after Finance Minister Ishaq Dar revised the federal budget the government passed on June 9, 2023. Dar increased Pakistan’s revenue collection target to Rs9.415 trillion ($33 billion) and put total spending at Rs14.480 trillion ($51 billion), increasing the petroleum levy from Rs50 to Rs60 per liter.
Authorities have taken Rs215 billion ($752 million) additional tax measures, cut Rs85 billion expenditures, hiked allocations under the social safety Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) by Rs16 billion, and withdrew amnesty on foreign exchange inflows, while the central bank jacked up policy rate by 1 percent to record high at 22 percent in an emergency meeting.
Economists said the high cost of the IMF bailout package would be borne by the masses rather than the elite.
“The key to success of SBA and next program will be structural reforms that is Waterloo of our elites,” Haq said, adding that “the real victims will be masses who will pay higher indirect taxes and bear high cost of utilities as has happened under previous program.”
For now, the SBA has had a positive impact on local and international investors’ confidence, with Pakistan’s sovereign dollar bond, maturing in 2024, gaining its value as fears of default subsided.
“Significant upward movement in bond prices demonstrates growing optimism among investors regarding Pakistan’s ability to address its economic challenges and implement necessary reforms under the IMF-supported program,” Tahir Abbas, head of research at Arif Habib Limited told Arab News.
Pakistani analysts and currency dealers expect that the country’s capital markets may rally from next week in response to positive the development, which would unlock further funding from bilateral and multilateral partners.
Malik Bostan, president of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) hoped the IMF deal would help Pakistan’s national currency regain its lost value.
“The rupee is expected to recover about Rs5 to Rs10 on the opening day of trading and will further strengthen by Rs10 to Rs20 with the inflow of funds,” Bostan told Arab News. “Those hoarding dollars for gains will not suffer losses if they don’t come out to sell.”
IMF’s $3 billion bailout deal will not solve Pakistan’s long-term problems, say experts
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IMF’s $3 billion bailout deal will not solve Pakistan’s long-term problems, say experts
- Economists say IMF agreement provides much-needed space to Pakistani economy, will dampen near-term uncertainty
- Pakistani rupee to recover by Rs10-20 against the US dollar when the IMF funds are received, says currency dealer
Pakistan’s new electric vehicle policy targets 30% green cars by 2030
- The policy aims to cut Pakistan’s reliance on imported fuel, shielding the economy from global oil price fluctuations
- Electric vehicles are also expected to offer long-term savings for consumers through reduced fuel and maintenance costs
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has unveiled an ambitious New Electric Vehicle Policy (NEVP) 2025–2030 that targets 30% of all new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030, Pakistani state media reported on Sunday.
The policy, which covers cars, buses, motorcycles and rickshaws, aims to accelerate the country’s shift toward sustainable transport, reduce fossil fuel dependence, and curb climate-warming emissions, the state-run APP news agency reported.
Pakistan imports most of its energy needs and the country’s urban areas exhibit some of the world’s highest levels of air pollution, primarily due to sub-2.5 μm particulate emissions. This issue significantly impairs both the country’s economy and the quality of life of its residents.
“Transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs) is critical for a healthier, greener and economically stable future,” Muhammad Saleem Shaikh, a spokesperson for the Climate Change Ministry, told APP, contending that transport sector was a major contributor to air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in Pakistan.
With the NEVP now in effect, Pakistan, which has seen erratic changes in its weather patterns which experts blame on climate change, joins a growing list of nations pushing for zero-emission mobility to combat climate change and urban pollution.
Mohammad Asif Sahibzada, director-general of the Climate Change Ministry, highlighted that EVs produce zero tailpipe emissions, which will significantly reduce urban smog and help Pakistan meet its international commitments.
“This shift will also lower respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, particularly benefiting children and the elderly,” he added.
The policy aims to cut Pakistan’s reliance on imported fossil fuels, shielding the economy from global oil price fluctuations. EVs are also expected to offer long-term savings for consumers through reduced fuel and maintenance costs.
The government plans to incentivize EV adoption through tax breaks, subsidies, and infrastructure development, including nationwide charging stations.
“Electric vehicles are not just about transport; they are central to Pakistan’s climate action strategy,” Muhammad Azeem Khoso, the ministry’s director for urban affairs, was quoted as saying by the APP.
“This policy marks a decisive step toward a cleaner, more resilient future.”
Pakistan, China and Russia to push for ceasefire as UN Security Council meets on Iran
- The three countries have circulated a draft resolution text and asked UNSC members to share comments by Monday
- A resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the US, France, Britain, Russia or China for it to pass
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan, China and Russia will present a joint resolution calling for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in the Middle East, the Pakistani mission to the United Nations (UN) said on Sunday, ahead of a UN Security Council meeting to discuss US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
It was not immediately clear when it could be put to a vote. The three countries circulated the draft text, and asked members to share their comments by Monday evening. A resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the United States, France, Britain, Russia or China to pass.
The US is likely to oppose the draft resolution, which condemns the attacks against “peaceful nuclear sites and facilities under the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards in the Islamic Republic of Iran” and says that such attacks represent a threat to international peace and security, and to the entire safeguards regime of the IAEA, according to a draft seen by Arab News.
It calls for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire and a diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue to reach an agreement acceptable to all parties that “guarantees the exclusively peaceful nature of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for complete lifting of all multilateral and unilateral sanctions.”
“Pakistan, China and Russia jointly have drafted a resolution and it is hoped that other countries like Algeria may also become its approvers,” Pakistan’s UN mission said.
“So far, it has been shared with the members countries for comments, which is a procedure before tabling it in the UNSC.”
The member countries will comment on the draft resolution and then a final draft will be tabled in the Security Council.
The world awaited Iran’s response on Sunday after President Donald Trump said the US had “obliterated” Tehran’s key nuclear sites, joining Israel in the biggest Western military action against the Islamic Republic since its 1979 revolution.
Iran requested the UN Security Council meeting, calling on the 15-member body “to address this blatant and unlawful act of aggression, to condemn it in the strongest possible terms.”
Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon said in a statement on Sunday that the US and Israel “do not deserve any condemnation, but rather an expression of appreciation and gratitude for making the world a safer place.”
UN Secretary-General Guterres branded the US strikes on Iran as a “dangerous escalation in a region already on the edge – and a direct threat to international peace and security.”
“At this perilous hour, it is critical to avoid a spiral of chaos. There is no military solution. The only path forward is diplomacy. The only hope is peace,” Guterres said in a statement.
Pakistan urges OIC to transform its pronouncements on Kashmir into ‘tangible actions’
- Kashmir has been divided between Pakistan and India since their independence from Britain in 1947
- Both countries claim the territory in full and have fought two of their four wars over the disputed region
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s deputy prime minister has urged the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to transform its pronouncements on the disputed Kashmir region into “tangible actions,” the Pakistani foreign office said on Sunday, following a meeting of the OIC Contact Group on Jammu and Kashmir.
The meeting took place on the sidelines of the 51st session of the OIC Council of Foreign Ministers in Istanbul, which came in the backdrop of Israeli military campaign against Iran and Pakistan’s recent military conflict with India.
While Pakistan’s brief standoff with India ended in a ceasefire last month, Israel’s attacks on Iran were followed by US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, raising fears of further instability in an already volatile region.
Addressing envoys of OIC member states, Pakistan’s deputy premier and foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, described New Delhi’s actions in Indian-administered Kashmir as a replication of the Israeli designs in Palestine, referring to alleged human rights violations and attempts to change demographics of the disputed Himalayan territory.
“The OIC’s pronouncements on Jammu and Kashmir are a major source of support to the Kashmir cause,” Dar said. “However, in view of the mounting challenges to the Kashmiri struggle, the OIC should transform its pronouncements into tangible actions. The Organization should scale up its efforts for mitigation of the Kashmiri people’s sufferings and finding a just settlement of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute.”
Kashmir has been divided between Pakistan and India since their independence from Britain in 1947. Both countries have fought two of their four wars over the disputed region, which is ruled in part but claimed in its entirety by both India and Pakistan.
The latest conflict between the two neighbors was also triggered by a militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir’s Pahalgam resort town, which killed 26 tourists on April 22. India blamed the attack on Pakistan, a charge Islamabad denies.
New Delhi has long accused Pakistan of fanning an insurgency on its side of Kashmir. Islamabad denies this and maintains that it only offers moral, political and diplomatic support to the Kashmiris.
Dar said Indian authorities exploited the Pahalgam attack to launch a massive crackdown in Kashmir.
“There are reports that over 2800 Kashmiris were arrested or questioned in the immediate aftermath of the attack,” he said. “The draconian Public Safety Act was slapped on at least 75 of them. The police carried out extensive searches at multiple residences of the locals. Around three dozen houses were razed to ground through the use of explosives.”
The Pakistani deputy PM said the disturbing developments in Indian-administered Kashmir have once again shown that a peaceful settlement of the Kashmir dispute is imperative for a lasting peace in South Asia.
“The region is home to over one-fifth of the world population. It could ill-afford the consequences of irresponsible Indian actions,” he said, urging the OIC and its members to use their influence to urge India to improve the human rights situation, release political prisoners and implement relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Heavy rains, lightning strikes kill at least six people in Pakistan’s northwest
- A total of seven houses were damaged due to rains, strong winds and flash floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province
- The Pakistan Meteorological Department this week forecast pre-monsoon rains across various parts on June 20-23
ISLAMABAD: Heavy rains and lightning strikes killed at least six people and injured five others in Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province this week, the KP Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said on Sunday.
A total of seven houses were damaged due to rains, strong winds and flash floods that have lashed the province since June 20, according to a PDMA report. The accidents occurred in Mansehra, Buner, Lower Dir, Upper Dir, Malakand and Kohistan districts of the province.
“The deceased include three men, one woman and two children, while the injured include three men and two women,” it said.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) this week forecast pre-monsoon rains in Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and Punjab and KP from June 20 till June 23.
“The PDMA has already issued a letter to the district administrations to remain alert and take preventive measures,” it added.
Last month, rains and thunderstorms killed at least 26 people in KP and Punjab provinces, authorities said.
Pakistan has seen erratic changes in its weather patterns which have led to frequent heat waves, untimely rains, storms, cyclones and droughts in recent years. Scientists have blamed the events on human-driven climate change.
In 2022, devastating floods, blamed on human-driven climate change, killed more than 1,700 Pakistanis, affected another 33 million and caused the country over $30 billion in economic losses.
Pakistan says US strikes on Iran nuclear sites violate international law, IAEA statute
- Experts warn the latest strikes could have ‘catastrophic’ economic and security implications for Pakistan
- In phone call with Iran president, Pakistan premier offers Islamabad’s support to de-escalate the crisis
ISLAMABAD: The United States (US) airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities violate international law and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) statute, the Pakistan prime minister’s office said on Sunday, as experts warned of their economic and security implications for Islamabad.
The strikes, which targeted three Iranian nuclear sites at Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz early Sunday, came amid Israel’s ongoing campaign against Iran’s nuclear program, which Israeli officials claim is nearing weaponization, an allegation Iran denies, insisting its activities remain peaceful and under international safeguards.
While the amount of damage remained unclear, the strikes have fueled fears of a wider conflict, with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi saying the US had “crossed a very big red line,” the time for diplomacy was over and Iran had the right to defend itself. US President Donald Trump warned Tehran against retaliation.
Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif spoke with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Sunday afternoon and conveyed Pakistan’s condemnation of the US attacks, which targeted Iranian nuclear facilities that were under the safeguards of the IAEA, according to Sharif’s office.
“These attacks constituted a serious violation of international law and the IAEA Statute,” Sharif’s office said. “While noting Iran’s right to self-defense, as enshrined under Article 51 of the UN Charter, the prime minister stressed upon the need to immediately return to dialogue and diplomacy as the only viable path forward.”
Sharif called for urgent collective efforts to de-escalate the situation and reiterated Pakistan’s readiness to play a constructive role in this context, according to his office. President Pezeshkian conveyed his appreciation for Pakistan’s support to Iran.
Pakistan’s foreign office earlier said Islamabad condemned the strikes and was “gravely concerned” at the possible further escalation of tensions in the region.
“Any further escalation of tensions will have severely damaging implications for the region and beyond,” it said, adding that Iran had the right to defend itself under the United Nations (UN) Charter and urged all parties to respect international humanitarian law, protect civilian lives and “immediately bring the conflict to an end.”
“Recourse to dialogue, diplomacy, in line with the principles and purposes of the UN Charter remain the only viable pathway to resolve the crises in the region.”
Tensions flared on June 13 when Israel launched airstrikes against what it described as Iran’s military leadership and nuclear infrastructure. Iran, a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), has since retaliated with missile attacks on Israeli targets. The United States, Israel’s closest ally, has now directly joined the campaign.
Experts have warned that the latest US strikes could have “catastrophic” economic and security implications for Pakistan.
“The economic implications of a wider war would be catastrophic for Pakistan. First and foremost, if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, our major concern will be the import of oil, as most of our oil supplies come from the Middle East,” Shakeel Ramay, a Pakistani economist, told Arab News.
“This would severely impact our economy since a significant portion of our power grid is powered by imported oil and gas from the region. The disruption would affect electricity production and have far-reaching consequences for our transportation network as well. The government will need to manage rising prices in the short term.”
Lt. Gen. (retired) Naeem Lodhi, a former Pakistani defense secretary, said Pakistan had so far acted “wisely” by condemning the attacks on Iran and offering to mediate the crisis.
“At this point, Pakistan needs to remain alert and ensure that it does not get directly involved. It must not allow any country — on either side — to use its soil, airspace, or any other assets,” he told Arab News.
“Although staying completely uninvolved is difficult due to our geographic proximity, it is still the most desirable course of action.”
If the war expanded, Lodhi said, Pakistan would face “serious challenges.”
“Many Pakistanis believe that if Iran is defeated in this war, it could create long-term problems for Pakistan,” he said.
“A new regime in Iran might not be friendly toward Pakistan and could even become hostile, bringing yet another threat to our borders. That is a key concern Pakistan must keep in mind.”
The crisis also raises questions about how Islamabad will navigate its delicate balancing act between Iran, other Gulf partners, and the United States, which remains one of Pakistan’s largest trading partners and a critical source of military and economic assistance.
“Certain demands may be made that Pakistan will find hard to ignore. For instance, if Arab countries become involved — which is likely — there could be strong pressure on Pakistan to support them in some capacity, whether through logistics, access to airspace, or even bases,” Lodhi said.
“While it may be relatively easier to say no to the United States despite its influence, refusing multiple allied Arab countries will be much more difficult. Still, Pakistan’s current leadership, especially the military leadership, is well aware of these dangers and will likely try to keep the country out of the conflict.”
