Experts blame Pakistan’s financial woes on political and economic mismanagement despite multiple IMF bailouts

A security guard stands outside a currency exchange shop in Rawalpindi on July 15, 2023. (AFP/File)
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Updated 19 July 2023
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Experts blame Pakistan’s financial woes on political and economic mismanagement despite multiple IMF bailouts

  • Pakistan has availed 23 IMF bailout programs since 1958, but all of them failed to stabilize the South Asian economy 
  • The successive Pakistani governments have failed to complete the programs, except the one completed in 2013-2016 

KARACHI: The absence of political will and the inability to implement necessary structural reforms are the primary factors that have failed Pakistan in its quest to achieve economic stability, economists say, despite financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on multiple occasions over the decades. 

The South Asian country last month signed a $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF making it the 23rd such deal with the global lender since 1958 when the country sought its first $25 million bailout, though the funds were not ultimately withdrawn, according to the IMF data. 

Despite having a long history of reaching out to the IMF for financial assistance, the successive Pakistani governments have failed to complete the programs, except the one completed in 2013-2016, and set a direction for the country to attain economic stability. 

Asked about the failures of the successive administrations in ending the country’s financial woes, Pakistani economists pointed to the politically weak governments and easy access to the IMF as the key factors that contributed to the economic failure. 

“The first reason is that you have not completed any structural reform program of the IMF that we agreed with the Fund, so the problem lies with us,” Dr. Vaqar Ahmed, joint executive director at the Islamabad-based Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI), told Arab News on Tuesday. 

“The second reason is that we lack political will and consistency that is required to implement the structural reforms. The third is the inability of the civil service to implement the reforms.” 

The expert noted that no Pakistani prime minister had ever completed their tenure, neither there were consistent policies in the country since its formation in 1947, which was vital to the continuation of structural reforms. 

“Political cycle is short in Pakistan and these reforms, for example, in the energy sector need 10-15 years to be fully implemented, but the horizon of any government is not that longer,” Ahmed said. 

When governments raise power tariff, they can’t withstand the public backlash and they eventually pull back the reforms, he added. 

Some economists, however, believe the IMF does not have the remedy for the economic ills of Pakistan. 

“It is the problem we have created and we can solve it with determination,” said Dr. Ashfaque Hassan Khan, a senior economist. “IMF will not solve our fundamental problems.” 

Asked why governments preferred IMF bailouts if the lender could not resolve Pakistan’s woes, the veteran economist said there were two contributing factors that forced the governments to repeatedly approach the IMF. 

“One is push and the other is pull factor,” Khan said, explaining the pull factor was from the IMF side to bring Pakistan into an IMF program, while the push factor involved people “strategically placed” within the country. 

“These people employ fear tactics to compel prime ministers to seek assistance from the IMF, citing concerns about market instability and claiming the country would face severe consequences.” 

Pakistan does not need the IMF for economic reforms as the fundament responsibility for this lies with the Pakistani policymakers, according to Khan. 

“If we need to increase revenue, will we wait for the IMF to tell us? Similarly, if we have to rationalize our expenditures and curb our unnecessary imports, do we need IMF to tell us,” Khan asked. 

“We are responsible for our economic problems and we can resolve them, but we are not doing this as we look for easy ways out.” 

Political parties, according to Khan, also lack economic experts that adds to problems on the economic front. 

Dr. Farukh Saleem, a financial analyst and former government spokesman, believed that putting the economy on the track was not a mandate of the IMF. 

“It is not the mandate of the IMF to put the economy of any country on the track. It is the responsibility of the government of that country and its policymakers,” Saleem said. 

“Whatever IMF says, that is in the interest of Pakistan. The IMF is sometimes scapegoated here. When they (governments) raise electricity or gas rates they say they are doing it on the demand of the IMF.” 

But the fact was the IMF didn’t ask to raise power or gas tariffs, but it insisted on selling electricity at a price that was compatible with its cost and it discouraged subsidies, he said. 

Saleem stressed the need to restructure the energy sector and to address the budget deficit, which he said germinated other ills. 

The economists agreed the country needed a charter of economy with a long-term legal cover. 

“Pick up three sectors for reforms such as taxation, energy and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and draw action plan for next 15 years that should be backed by a legislative cover ensuring that nobody will disturb the plan,” Ahmed suggested. 


Pakistan’s top revenue-generating Sindh province unveils $12.4 billion budget with major tax cuts

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Pakistan’s top revenue-generating Sindh province unveils $12.4 billion budget with major tax cuts

  • Sindh, home to commercial hub Karachi, wants to abolish five taxes to ease pressure on individuals, businesses
  • Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, governed by jailed ex-PM Khan’s PTI, presents $7.63 billion budget for FY2025-26

KARACHI: Pakistan’s southern Sindh province on Friday proposed abolishing five taxes as it presented a Rs3.45 trillion ($12.41 billion) new budget for fiscal year 2025-26 to simplify taxation and alleviate financial pressure on people and small businesses.

Friday also saw Pakistan’s northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province announcing a surplus budget of Rs2,119 billion ($7.63 billion) for next year, without proposing any new taxes. The province allocated significant financial resources for the militancy-hit tribal districts and social welfare programs, according to the budget document.

SINDH

Sindh’s budget, which carries a deficit of Rs38.46 billion ($138.35 million), includes plans to eliminate professional tax, cotton fee and entertainment duty among other levies as part of broader reforms to support salaried individuals, small businesses, and cultural industries.

“I would like to share some important changes being planned to make our tax system simpler and to reduce the financial burden on both individuals and businesses,” Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah said while presenting the budget in the provincial assembly.

Sindh generates most of Pakistan’s revenues, more than 60 percent, and is the second most populous province ruled by Pakistan People’s Party of President Asif Ali Zardari, a coalition partner of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party which leads the federal government.

Pakistan remains under a $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan program approved last year and the Washington-based lender wants Islamabad to broaden its tax base by taxing incomes from agriculture, retail and real estate sectors at the provincial level.

The two provinces announced their new fiscal plans days after Pakistan’s federal government announced its FY26 budget targeting 4.2 percent economic growth, while aiming to arrest fiscal deficit at 3.9 percent of the GDP.

In Sindh, the province’s total revenue receipts are projected at Rs3.41 trillion ($12.27 billion) for FY2025-26, up 11.6 percent from the current fiscal year ending June. Transfers from the federal divisible pool, which account for 75 percent of revenue, are expected to rise 10.2 percent to Rs1.93 trillion ($6.94 billion). With additional grants and straight transfers, total federal receipts are estimated at Rs2.10 trillion ($7.55 billion).

Current Revenue Expenditure (CRE) has been set at Rs2.15 trillion ($7.73 billion), a 12.4 percent increase from the prior year, driven by higher salaries, pensions, and grants to non-financial institutions.

Allocations for key sectors have seen marked increases. The education budget has risen to Rs523.73 billion ($1.88 billion) – a 12.4 percent hike – with major investments in primary and secondary education. New initiatives include hiring 4,400 staff, opening four community colleges, and funding for 34,100 primary schools through cost centers.

The health sector will receive Rs326.5 billion ($1.17 billion), up 8 percent, including Rs19 billion ($68.35 million) for the Sindh Institute of Urology & Transplantation (SIUT) and Rs10 billion ($35.97 million) for a new hospital in Larkana.

Enhanced ambulance and mobile diagnostic services are also planned.

Grants-in-aid total Rs702 billion ($2.53 billion), reflecting allocations for hospitals, universities, and development bodies. A Rs520 billion ($1.87 billion) Annual Development Program (ADP) focuses on 475 new schemes targeting flood recovery, renewable energy, and underserved regions.

Karachi, the provincial capital of Sindh, will see major upgrades in transport and infrastructure. Fifty electric buses will launch this year, with 100 more expected by August. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Yellow Line is nearing completion, and the Red Line has passed the halfway mark.

The Karachi Safe City initiative will expand CCTV coverage using artificial intelligence, while blockchain-based land records, a KPI monitoring dashboard, and digital birth registration aim to enhance governance.

In rural areas, Rs20 billion ($71.95 million) has been allocated for pro-poor initiatives, while the new Benazir Hari Card will support 200,000 farmers. The Sindh Cooperative Bank is being explored to provide interest-free loans to progressive farmers.

KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA

Presenting the new budget, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Finance Minister Aftab Alam said the province achieved a Rs100 billion ($359.71 million) surplus in the outgoing fiscal year despite receiving Rs90 billion ($323.74 million) less in funds from the federal government.

The province is ruled by jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, which is in opposition at the federal level.

“Against all odds and skepticism, we not only met our budget targets but also ensured timely debt repayments of Rs49 billion [$176.26 million],” Alam said.

He added that KP’s own non-tax revenues rose by 74 percent this year, while the KP Revenue Authority collected Rs41.37 billion ($148.79 million) in the first 10 months of the outgoing fiscal year.

The province has set a tax revenue target of Rs83.5 billion ($300 million) and a non-tax revenue target of Rs45.5 billion ($163.71 million) for the next fiscal year, aiming to widen the tax net rather than impose new levies.

Federal transfers, including Rs1,147.91 billion ($4.13 billion) from tax revenues and Rs58.15 billion ($209.17 million) in oil windfall levy, are expected to form the bulk of receipts.

The tribal districts are set to receive Rs292.34 billion ($1.05 billion), including Rs50 billion ($179.85 million) under an accelerated implementation program and Rs39 billion ($140.28 million) for development.

Key initiatives include the expansion of the Sehat Card Plus with life insurance coverage, recruitment of 16,000 teachers, and establishment of new degree colleges.

The province’s police force will receive Rs693.7 million ($2.49 million) for modern arms and Rs1.22 billion ($4.39 million) for vehicles.
 


IFC to provide $400 million loan for Pakistan’s copper-gold Reko Diq mine

Updated 41 min 32 sec ago
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IFC to provide $400 million loan for Pakistan’s copper-gold Reko Diq mine

  • The loan adds to a $300 million commitment announced in April, bringing the total to $700 million
  • Reko Diq, one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits, is being developed by Barrick Gold

ISLAMABAD: The International Finance Corporation will provide a $400 million subordinated loan for Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper-gold mine, according to an IFC disclosure on Friday.

The loan adds to a $300 million commitment announced in April, bringing IFC’s total financing for the project to $700 million. The estimated cost of the mine is $6.6 billion, to be funded through a mix of debt and equity from a consortium of lenders.

“The estimated total Project cost is $6.6bn, and it will be financed using a combination of debt and equity,” the disclosure said, adding that other parallel lenders will provide the remaining debt financing.

This type of loan, known as subordinated debt, is typically repaid after other senior loans and helps absorb more risk, making it easier for other lenders to invest.

Other financiers, including the US EXIM Bank, Asian Development Bank, Export Development Canada, and Japan’s JBIC, are also expected to join the financing package, project director Tim Cribb told Reuters in April.

Term sheets are expected to close by early in the third quarter. IFC chief Makhtar Diop said earlier this year that the institution was “doubling down” on Pakistan, with a focus on infrastructure, energy and natural resources.

Reko Diq, located in Balochistan, is one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits. It is being developed by Barrick Gold, which holds 50 percent, with the remainder split between Pakistan’s federal and provincial governments.

Production is expected to begin in 2028. Barrick has projected the mine will generate up to $74 billion in free cash flow over its estimated 37-year life.


Pakistan stocks drop over 1,900 points amid Israel-Iran tensions

Updated 13 June 2025
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Pakistan stocks drop over 1,900 points amid Israel-Iran tensions

  • Analysts cite fears of broader regional escalation following Israeli strikes on Iran
  • Israel struck Iran, claiming Tehran was “close” to developing a nuclear weapon

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) plunged more than 1,900 points on Friday, as investor sentiment soured following Israel’s strikes on Iran, triggering fears of wider regional escalation.

The benchmark KSE-100 index fell 1,949.56 points, or 1.57 percent, closing at 122,143.56, down from the previous close of 124,093.12.

Shares traded largely in the red, mirroring losses across regional and global markets after the Israeli attacks shook investor confidence, according to a market review by Pakistani brokerage Topline Securities.

“Geopolitical tensions after Israel’s attack in Iran weighed down on world equities, including the KSE100,” Raza Jafri, Head of Intermarket Securities, told Arab News. “In particular, if a geopolitical risk premium gets added to international oil prices on a prolonged basis, it could negatively affect the outlook for the current account deficit and inflation, given more than 25 percent of Pakistan’s import bill comprises of petroleum products.”

He noted that Pakistan was now “much more disciplined” economically, having avoided fuel subsidies and refrained from using foreign exchange reserves to support the currency. This, he said, would help the country better withstand a potential oil price shock than in the past.

Ahsan Mehanti, Chief Executive of Arif Habib Commodities Ltd, said stocks declined across the board in response to the strikes.

“Slump in global equities on geopolitical risks and weakening rupee played catalyst role in panic selling at PSX,” he said.

Israel launched strikes on Iran earlier on Friday, claiming Tehran was “very close” to developing a nuclear weapon. The attacks reportedly targeted nuclear facilities, scientists, and senior military commanders.
 


Pakistan stocks drop over 1,900 points amid Israel-Iran tensions

Updated 13 June 2025
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Pakistan stocks drop over 1,900 points amid Israel-Iran tensions

  • Analysts cite fears of broader regional escalation following Israeli strikes on Iran
  • Israel struck Iran, claiming Tehran was “close” to developing a nuclear weapon

KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) plunged more than 1,900 points on Friday, as investor sentiment soured following Israel’s strikes on Iran, triggering fears of wider regional escalation.

The benchmark KSE-100 index fell 1,949.56 points, or 1.57 percent, closing at 122,143.56, down from the previous close of 124,093.12.

Shares traded largely in the red, mirroring losses across regional and global markets after the Israeli attacks shook investor confidence, according to a market review by Pakistani brokerage Topline Securities.

“Geopolitical tensions after Israel’s attack in Iran weighed down on world equities, including the KSE100,” Raza Jafri, Head of Intermarket Securities, told Arab News. “In particular, if a geopolitical risk premium gets added to international oil prices on a prolonged basis, it could negatively affect the outlook for the current account deficit and inflation, given more than 25 percent of Pakistan’s import bill comprises of petroleum products.”

He noted that Pakistan was now “much more disciplined” economically, having avoided fuel subsidies and refrained from using foreign exchange reserves to support the currency. This, he said, would help the country better withstand a potential oil price shock than in the past.

Ahsan Mehanti, Chief Executive of Arif Habib Commodities Ltd, said stocks declined across the board in response to the strikes.

“Slump in global equities on geopolitical risks and weakening rupee played catalyst role in panic selling at PSX,” he said.

Israel launched strikes on Iran earlier on Friday, claiming Tehran was “very close” to developing a nuclear weapon. The attacks reportedly targeted nuclear facilities, scientists, and senior military commanders.
 


Pakistan urges religious devotees to postpone travel to Iran, Iraq amid regional tensions

Updated 13 June 2025
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Pakistan urges religious devotees to postpone travel to Iran, Iraq amid regional tensions

  • A senior government official says currently there are an estimated 5,000 Zaireen in Iran
  • Israel launched strikes against Iranian military and nuclear facilities earlier in the day

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Friday advised its citizens planning religious travel to Iran and Iraq to reconsider their plans, citing security concerns after Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities earlier in the day.

The advisory mentions Pakistani “Zaireen,” or Shi’ite Muslim pilgrims who travel to Iran and Iraq to visit sacred religious sites, particularly in Mashhad, Qom, Najaf and Karbala.

The region has seen heightened tensions following Israeli attacks on key installations in Iran, prompting fears of broader instability.

“In view of the evolving security situation in the region, the Zaireen from Pakistan are advised to reconsider their travel plans to Iran and Iraq,” the foreign office said in a brief statement issued in Islamabad.

According to a senior government official who spoke on condition of anonymity, the number of Zaireen traveling to Iran fluctuates, and most do not contact the Pakistani diplomatic missions.

“Currently, there are an estimated 5,000 Zaireen in Iran,” he said, adding that Pakistan’s embassy in Tehran and its consulates remain available to assist citizens.

“Any Pakistani requiring guidance or support is encouraged to contact our relevant diplomatic missions, which will, as always, provide necessary assistance and facilitate their return to Pakistan,” the official added.

While no evacuation plans have been announced, the authorities say they are closely monitoring the regional situation.