Frankly Speaking: What does Russia think it will take to end the war with Ukraine?

1 | Defending Kremlin decision to cancel BlackSea Grain Initiative
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Updated 31 July 2023
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Frankly Speaking: What does Russia think it will take to end the war with Ukraine?

  • Russian diplomat Andrey Baklanov says a negotiated settlement is unlikely, insists Ukrainian government has to be annihilated
  • Thanks Arab countries, especially Saudi Arabia, for prisoner swap mediation, says bigger Chinese role in the Middle East serves Russia’s interests too

DUBAI: There is no possibility of reaching a truce between Russia and Ukraine and normality can only be achieved after the “annihilation” of the present government in Kyiv, Andrey Baklanov, a Russian diplomat and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, has said.

Sharing his insights in the latest episode of “Frankly Speaking,” the weekly Arab News current-affairs talk show, Baklanov reckoned a negotiated settlement to the war was unlikely.




Andrey Baklanov, a Russian diplomat and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, speaks to Frankly Speaking host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

“I think that there is no opportunity for any kind of truce between the present-day government — the so-called government, these fascist people in Kyiv — and us,” he added, referring to the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

“I’m absolutely sure that the only option we have is to, well, to annihilate this regime in Ukraine and to return Ukraine to normality.”




Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (R) poses for a selfie with a serviceman during a visit to Donetsk region. (File/AFP)

Besides the Ukraine conflict, the interview touched on issues ranging from the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal and the Wagner Group to Russia’s relations with Syria and the Chinese-brokered Saudi-Iran normalization deal.

Baklanov noted that Russia’s aims in Ukraine remained unchanged.

“The first, denazification; second, demilitarization; and third, the termination of the criminal activities of the criminal regime, which had a coup d’etat in 2014,” he said, referring to the protests that removed pro-Russian leader Viktor Yanukovych from power that year.




An employee walks near mangled warehouses at a grain facility in Pavlivka, Ukraine, Saturday, July 22, 2023, following Russian missile attacks. (File/AFP)

Although the Russian claim that Ukraine is controlled by a fascist clique has been vigorously contested, Baklanov drew on events of World War II to justify the “special military operation” launched against Ukraine 18 months ago.

“We regard what was going on in Ukraine as the prolongation of the Second World War,” he added.

In the present situation, he described Zelensky as a “traitor” who, together with “many other of the criminals, will be answering in our court for the criminal activities during the eight or even nine years against our people in Donbas. They will be caught and will be imprisoned.”




Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (L) buys an ice cream during a visit to the Donetsk region. (File/AFP)

Baklanov also used the interview to defend Russia’s decision to scrap a UN- and Turkiye-brokered agreement that had allowed grain, foodstuffs, fertilizer, and other commodities to be shipped from Ukraine’s blockaded Black Sea ports to some of the world’s most food-insecure countries.

He contended that the Kremlin was forced to cancel the deal, signed in the Turkish city of Istanbul in July 2022, in order to safeguard Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports.

Dmitry Peskov, the Russian government spokesperson, announced on July 17 that Russia would leave the Black Sea Grain Initiative. He said: “When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented, Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal.”

The Kremlin has given the UN three months to agree to its terms.




The Soviet coat of arms on the shield of a 62-meter Motherland Monument in Kyiv will be replaced with the coat of arms of Ukraine in accordance with the law on decommunization. (File/AFP)

Baklanov dismissed the deal as “fraudulent,” claiming that the majority of the grain had in fact been destined for Europe, not to food-insecure countries in Africa, and that Russian farmers were not benefiting from the arrangement.

“Only 3 percent of the grain went to the African continent and to the people that are suffering from hunger. The absolute majority of the grain went to prosperous countries of the West, especially European countries,” he added.

Claiming that only “half of the deal” was being recognized, he said no progress was visible on a related agreement designed to ease Russian food and agricultural exports amid Western sanctions imposed on Moscow in response to the Ukraine invasion.

On the Ukraine war, Baklanov noted that peace talks would not be on the table even though Russia was “very much thankful for the Arab countries and Saudi Arabia for their attempts to mediate.”




Aerial view shows destroyed buildings as a result of intense fighting, amid the Russian invasion, in Bakhmut, Ukraine in this still image from handout video. (File/AFP)

Close to 300 prisoners were exchanged between Ukraine and Russia in a deal brokered by Saudi and Turkiye in September. Both sides had captured hundreds of enemy fighters since the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out on Feb. 24, 2022, but only a few prisoner exchanges had occurred since.

Baklanov pointed out that mediation could be very helpful but only as far as some “humanitarian aspects” were concerned, such as exchange of prisoners of war.

“But the origin of the war is something which our colleagues in Arab and Africans countries should understand better. It’s necessary to feel the history — not just to know the history, but to feel the history.




Prisoners of war are seen on the tarmac after arriving, following successful mediation efforts by Saudi Arabia, from Russia to King Khalid International Airport, in Riyadh. (File/SPA)

“It’s only those people — like me and some others — who understand the origin, the source, of this conflict. For the external people, it’s rather difficult to understand this origin in due manner.

“So, we are very thankful for these attempts to mediate but I think that, in real terms, this mediation can be helpful only for the humanitarian part,” he added.

Baklanov said he regretted that Russia had not started to coordinate its policies with Saudi Arabia earlier, especially regarding oil.

“Unfortunately, I must admit, for many years we didn’t give a clear-cut answer for the proposals of Saudi Arabia to make a common deal on this front. It was a grave mistake of the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation.

“But now, fortunately enough, we have this formal OPEC+, and I will say again that the initiative was from Saudi Arabia, and we backed that, and it was, for a long period of time, a really good gesture from the Russian Federation. Also, we value very much the initiative of Saudi Arabia to sacrifice their own interests,” he added.

He pointed out that from his experience there was “a big difference” between Soviet-era and Russian Federation policies.




Belarusian soldiers of the Special Operations Forces and mercenary fighters from Wagner private military company attend the weeklong maneuvers conducted at a firing range near the city of Brest, Belarus. (File/AFP)

Baklanov said: “When I was for five years the ambassador in Saudi Arabia, I never asked the authorities of Saudi Arabia to make any (decisions) as far as their ties with the US were concerned. Never. We were speaking about our own interests. We had our bilateral interesting things to do.

“We do not (propagandize) against third countries. We criticize certain elements of policy when we see it, but we do not push these countries — the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia — for anything against the interests of third countries.”

Praising the current state of relations between Saudi Arabia and Russia, he added: “It’s easier to be in good relations with us, to be on equal footing with us, to be on friendly footing with the Russian Federation. And we do not urge other people to be on awkward (terms) with some other countries.

“That is the difference with the US, which is pressuring countries to participate in its sanctions against us. The approaches from our side and that from the Western countries are absolutely different.

“I think that the people of the Middle East know this difference, and they are more friendly toward us for knowing these facts.”

Given that Russia has welcomed the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran achieved through a Chinese-brokered deal, the question naturally arises why Moscow did not play the role of honest broker itself considering its own close ties with Riyadh and Tehran.

Baklanov claimed that Russia was indeed ready to undertake mediation, admitting that he, as a specialist in Arab and Middle East countries, was “a little bit disillusioned that our Chinese friends turned out to be successful.”

Nevertheless, he said Russia was mainly interested in the result.

“If the good result of this mediation is the start of the returning to normal relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, we are interested in that. If the Chinese attained this political diplomatic victory, we (simply) congratulate them (on this achievement).




Saudi Foreign Affairs Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang (C), and Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (L) pose during a meeting in Beijing. (File/AFP)

“But, also, we are ready to go on the same path, so we are both in one boat. We are interested in (stabilization) and normalization of the situation in the whole region. And, recently, we again resumed our proposal for a regional security system arrangement,” he added.

Baklanov brushed aside the suggestion that China’s growing role in the Middle East was a threat to Russia’s influence as an alternative to a non-Western regional diplomatic power.

“We are seeing what is going on in the Middle East region from a different angle. We do not have disputes with China, and we are not striving for a monopolistic role there against the influence of China. No.”

He described Russia’s interest in the Middle East as a very simple one.

“We would like to have near our boundaries a good situation, tranquil (situation). And if we are (serving the cause of peace), it’s okay. If China is (serving the cause of peace), it’s also okay. The main aim for us is not to be the first in these diplomatic activities, but to have positive results,” he said.

 


UN warns of Sudanese conflict ‘spill over’ in C.Africa

Updated 4 sec ago
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UN warns of Sudanese conflict ‘spill over’ in C.Africa

United Nations, US: The UN peacekeeping chief warned Thursday about potential spill over from Sudan’s war to undermine nascent stability in the Central African Republic, including paramilitary operations.
Last week, an armed group attacked a patrol by the UN mission in the CAR, killing a Zambian peacekeeper.
Among the world’s poorest countries, the CAR shares a border with Sudan, which has been plunged into devastating conflict between the regular army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces since April 2023.
Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix highlighted the armed group attacking the CAR mission during a Security Council meeting Thursday, and a report released by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’s office noted attacks in the region as well.
“The security situation remains fragile in border areas,” Lacroix told the UN Security Council, referring to the CAR.
“In the northeast, on the border with Sudan, instability is characterized by the overflow of Sudanese conflict, including incursions by armed groups,” he added.
The Central African Republic is also reckoning with rising numbers of Sudanese refugees fleeing the conflict, with the UN report estimating 36,642 living in the country as of June 1.
“The Sudanese conflict is a real threat. Armed groups are crossing our borders, recruiting young people and compromising our sovereignty,” said CAR UN ambassador Marius Aristide Hoja Nzessioue.
Lacroix said the Central African Republic was at a “delicate juncture,” adding that support for the progress made toward upcoming elections from the international community “remains essential.”
“If these efforts are sustained...the Central African Republic has the potential to become a true success story — not only for Central Africans, but also for Peacekeeping and for this Security Council,” Lacroix said.


Lawmakers scrap ‘revenge’ tax provision from Trump’s big bill after Treasury requests its removal

Updated 27 June 2025
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Lawmakers scrap ‘revenge’ tax provision from Trump’s big bill after Treasury requests its removal

  • Critics warned that Section 899 of the bill "will hurt the US more than it helps"
  • Global Business Alliance said the section could lead to 700,000 US jobs lost

WASHINGTON: Congressional Republicans agreed to remove the so-called revenge tax provision from President Donald Trump’s big bill Thursday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asked members of Congress to do so earlier in the day.
The Section 899 provision would allow the federal government to impose taxes on companies with foreign owners, as well as investors from countries judged as charging “unfair foreign taxes” on US companies.
The measure was expected to lead many companies to avoid investing in the US out of concern that they could face steep taxes.
Bessent said in an X post that he made the request to lawmakers after reaching an agreement with other countries on the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Global Tax Deal. He said that after “months of productive dialogue,” they would “announce a joint understanding among G7 countries that defends American interests.”
After he made the request, Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith, R-Missouri, said “we will remove proposed tax code Section 899” from the bill and “Congressional Republicans stand ready to take immediate action if the other parties walk away from this deal or slow walk its implementation.”
The removal of the provision will provide “greater certainty and stability for the global economy and will enhance growth and investment in the United States and beyond,” Bessent said in his post.
An analysis by the Global Business Alliance, a trade group representing international companies such as Toyota and Nestlé, estimates that the provision would cost the US 700,000 jobs and $100 billion annually in lost gross domestic product.

Global Business Alliance infographic. (X: @GlobalBiz)

The Global Business Alliance was among several groups that signed a letter addressed to Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota and Senate Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo of Idaho, warning of the consequences of Section 899.
The removal of the provision adds a wrinkle to Republicans’ plans to try to offset the cost of the massive package. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that the bill would spike deficits by at least $2.4 trillion over the next decade.
Republicans are rushing to finish the package this week to meet the president’s Fourth of July deadline for passage.
Earlier Thursday, the Senate parliamentarian advised that a Medicaid provider tax overhaul central to the spending bill does not adhere to the chamber’s procedural rules, delivering a crucial blow to Republicans, who are counting on big cuts to Medicaid and other programs to offset trillions of dollars in Trump tax breaks.


EU leaders agree to prolong Russia sanctions: officials

Updated 27 June 2025
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EU leaders agree to prolong Russia sanctions: officials

  • EU’s sweeping sanctions includes freezing of more than 200 billion euros ($234 billion) in Russian central bank assets

BRUSSELS: The EU’s 27 leaders on Thursday agreed to extend sanctions on Russia for another six months, resolving fears that Kremlin-friendly Hungary would let the measures lapse, officials said.
The decision at a summit in Brussels means that the EU’s sweeping sanctions over the war in Ukraine, including the freezing of more than 200 billion euros ($234 billion) in Russian central bank assets, will remain in force until at least early 2026.
It comes after officials said they were preparing contingency plans to keep the bloc’s economic punishment on Moscow in place should Hungarian leader Viktor Orban refuse to budge.
EU counterparts had feared a refusal by Budapest to renew the measures could blow a massive hole in the leverage the bloc holds over Russia as the United States presses peace efforts.
Orban took the decision to the wire the last time the sanctions — which need to be extended every six months — came up for renewal in January.
But while the EU made sure its existing measures will remain in place, it failed to get clearance on a new package of sanctions due to a blockage by Hungary’s ally Slovakia.
Slovakian leader Roberto Fico refused at the summit to greenlight the new round of sanctions due to a separate dispute with Brussels over plans to cut off imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027.
Slovakia remains dependent on Russian gas imports and earns money from transit fees for supplies piped across its territory.
Fico held talks with EU chief Ursula von der Leyen earlier on Thursday but failed to get the concessions he wants and announced he would hold up approval of the sanctions package.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky urged EU leaders in a video address to adopt the strong package “targeting Russia’s oil trade, shadow tanker fleet, banks, and supply chains that bring equipment or parts for making weapons.”
Officials say, however, that a push to lower a price cap on Russian oil exports has been shelved after Washington failed to back the push as part of a broader G7 initiative.
 


Ukraine, Russia exchange another group of POWs

Updated 27 June 2025
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Ukraine, Russia exchange another group of POWs

CHERNIGIV REGION, Ukraine: Ukraine and Russia exchanged a new group of captured soldiers on Thursday, the latest in a series of prisoner swaps agreed at peace talks in Istanbul earlier this month.
Neither side said how many prisoners were released in the latest exchange.
The two countries pledged to swap at least 1,000 soldiers each during their direct meeting in Istanbul on June 2 but no follow-up talks have been scheduled.
The return of prisoners of war and the repatriation of war dead have been among the few areas of cooperation between the warring sides since Moscow invaded Ukraine in 2022.
“Today, warriors of the Armed Forces, the National Guard, and the State Border Guard Service are returning home,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on social media.
He shared images of Ukrainian soldiers draped in blue-and-yellow national flags, smiling and tearfully embracing.
AFP reporters in Ukraine’s northern Chernigiv region saw relatives awaiting the prisoner release.
Some family members waved posters of missing or captured soldiers in the hope someone would recognize their loved ones and bring them news.
Svitlana Nosal learned her husband Viktor had been freed.
“It’s such a joy, I don’t know how to describe it, how to put it into words,” she said, laughing and crying in the late afternoon sun.
The majority of those released on Thursday were held captive for more than three years, according to Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War.
Many of them were taken prisoner in Mariupol, a Ukrainian port city that fell to Russian forces in 2022 following a nearly three-month siege, it said.
Russia said its soldiers had been transferred to Belarus and were receiving “psychological and medical care.”
“Another group of Russian servicemen has been returned from territory controlled by the Kyiv regime,” the defense ministry said in a statement.
It posted a video showing freed Russian soldiers draped in their national flag, chanting “Russia, Russia, Russia!“


UN climate chief warns ‘lot more to do’ before COP30

Updated 27 June 2025
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UN climate chief warns ‘lot more to do’ before COP30

BONN: UN climate chief Simon Stiell urged countries on Thursday to accelerate negotiations ahead of the COP30 in Brazil as there was a lot left to be done.
Speaking after two weeks of technical talks in Bonn, Stiell closed the annual climate diplomacy event saying: “We need to go further, faster, and fairer.”
Bonn is home to the UN Climate Change Secretariat, which coordinates international climate policy and hosts preparatory talks each year ahead of climate summits.
“I’m not going to sugar coat... we have a lot more to do before we meet again in Belem,” he said.
COP30 is due to be held on November 10-21 in the Amazonian city which is the capital of Para state.
At last year’s UN COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, rich nations agreed to increase climate finance to $300 billion a year by 2035, an amount decried as woefully inadequate.
Azerbaijan and Brazil, which is hosting this year’s COP30 conference, have launched an initiative to reduce the shortfall, with the expectation of “significant” contributions from international lenders.
This year’s COP comes as average global temperatures in the past two years have exceeded the 1.5 degrees Celsius benchmark set under the Paris climate accord a decade ago.
“There is so much more work to do to keep 1.5 alive, as science demands. We must find a way to get to the hard decisions sooner,” Stiell said.
Under the Paris Agreement, wealthy developed countries — those most responsible for global warming to date — are obliged to pay climate finance to poorer nations.
Other countries, most notably China, make voluntary contributions.