How Niger’s military coup threatens efforts to root out Islamist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel

Supporters of the Nigerien defense forces attacked the headquarters of the political party of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum in Niamey on Thursday. (AFP)
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Updated 02 August 2023
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How Niger’s military coup threatens efforts to root out Islamist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel

  • Experts say Niger is at risk of becoming a breeding ground for terrorist recruitment following July 26 coup
  • Daesh and Al-Qaeda affiliates have most to gain from chaos in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, say analysts

JUBA, South Sudan: Niger has become the third nation in the troubled Sahel region in as many years to suffer a military coup, causing concern among Western leaders and neighboring states over the repercussions for the ongoing fight against Islamist insurgency.

President Mohamed Bazoum, who is currently confined to his official residence in the capital, Niamey, was toppled on July 26 by his own presidential guard. The head of the elite force, Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, has declared himself the new leader.

Coming in the wake of similar military takeovers in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, the US and former colonial power France have demanded Bazoum’s reinstatement, acknowledging his key role in the fight against extremism.

The African Union and the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, have likewise insisted on the need to restore stability to effectively confront the extremist threat, indicating neighboring states might consider using force to reinstate Bazoum.




General Abdourahmane Tiani, who was declared as the new head of state of Niger by leaders of a coup, arrives to meet with ministers in Niamey, Niger. (Reuters)

Niger’s strategic position in the Sahel region, bordered by countries experiencing violent extremism, makes it an important ally in the international fight against Islamist insurgency. Before the coup, Niger actively participated in regional counterterrorism initiatives.

However, the coup and its potential disruption to governance and security could jeopardize these vital partnerships and impede the progress of regional security efforts.

Aneliese Bernard, director of the Washington D.C.-based risk advisory group Strategic Stabilization Advisors, says similar coups in the region show that extremist groups have the most to gain from these episodes of instability.

“History has shown that groups like the Islamic State Sahel Province and Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin have successfully capitalized on governance and security vacuums left by states consumed with internal political issues and this has allowed them to expand their influence in Mali and Burkina Faso following recent coups,” Bernard told Arab News.

JNIM and ISSP are two rival radical groups operating in the region. It is not uncommon for individuals to switch sides between these groups, which further complicates the security situation in the region.

JNIM operates in neighboring Mali, with activities extending across West Africa, having pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb, or AQIM.




Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin in Burkina Faso. (Supplied)

ISSP, meanwhile, operates as the Sahelian affiliate of Daesh and has also been involved in attacks across the region.

According to Bernard, the coup has destabilized the governance and security apparatus in Niger’s southwestern Tillaberi region, close to the triple frontier with Burkina Faso and Mali, where the ISSP is active.

“In such situations, JNIM and ISSP might seize the opportunity to exploit the absence of state authority and promote themselves as alternatives to governance and security,” she said.

“By championing the perception that neglected and marginalized communities in the periphery are left without support from the government, these jihadist groups have managed to infiltrate remote communities successfully.”

One targeted group is the Fulani people, an ethnic minority in the region, accused by authorities of harboring terrorist sympathies. Due to their status as a discriminated minority, extremist groups have found some success recruiting among their ranks.

Virginie Baudais, director of the Sahel and West Africa Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, says the possibility of Western aid being suspended as a result of the coup raises questions about how Niger’s security forces will handle the Islamist threat.

“Armed groups have consistently targeted defense and security forces in the region, making it essential for the international community to realign its priorities and support,” Baudais told Arab News.

FASTFACTS

• President Mohamed Bazoum was toppled by his own presidential guard on July 26.

• The coup follows similar military takeovers in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali.

• Experts say radical groups like JNIM and ISSP have the most to gain from coups.

“However, while the situation has continued to deteriorate, people do not feel protected by international troops. That is why they support their armed forces in the fight against terrorism, but support for the coup perpetrators is not unanimous.”

Alex Nkosi, a Malawian policy specialist based in the West African country of Togo, likewise highlights the potential for divisions within Niger’s military ranks.

“The coup could invoke divisions within the military because not all soldiers support the military indulgence in politics,” Nkosi told Arab News. He is also doubtful Niger’s armed forces will have the means to go it alone against the extremist groups.

“If military aid and assistance from the US and France are suspended due to the coup, Niger’s security forces may face challenges in maintaining operational capabilities,” said Nkosi.

“The loss of resources, intelligence-sharing platforms, and training programs could therefore weaken their ability to confront well-armed and organized Islamist groups effectively. Niger may have to seek alternative sources of support or re-evaluate its strategies to address the security challenges independently.”

Those alternatives may include Russia’s Wagner Group — the private military contractor now based in Belarus since its abortive uprising against Russia’s military leadership in June this year.




French President Emmanuel Macron with Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum at the Elysee Palace in June. (AFP)

Wagner has been making significant inroads into Burkina Faso and Mali since their respective militaries took power, providing manpower and expertise in the fight against extremists. Given the pro-Russian sentiments among Niger’s coup leaders, it is perhaps only a matter of time before Wagner soldiers emerge from the shadows.

Against this backdrop, according to Wim Zwijneburg, humanitarian disarmament project leader for the Dutch peace organisation PAX, a pullout by French forces from Niger will likely also prompt a removal of MQ-9 Reapers by the Americans, who have drone bases in Agadez, 740 kilometers northeast of Niamey.

“Combat drones operated by the two countries have been instrumental in the monitoring of militant cross-border movement in the Sahel,” Zwijneburg told Arab News.

“A lack of these air assets for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions will mean less information available to track militant groups, including Daesh affiliates, in the region and to respond in a timely fashion.

“This may translate into a new wave of attacks if the national armies do not have alternatives to fill the vacuum. Though Niger recently stocked its own armed drone fleet with Turkish TB-2s, it is not clear if security forces have succeeded in integrating them fully into existing counterterrorism operations.”

Cameron Hudson, a former CIA analyst and consultant on African peace, security, and governance issues, says if the US and France are serious about combating the radical Islamist threat, Western nations will have to reassess their willingness to engage with military-led governments.

“The seriousness of the Islamist threat and other security challenges in the region might force them to engage with military leaders who now find themselves on the front line of the fight against terrorism,” he told Arab News.




Thousands protested in front of the French Embassy in Niamey. (AFP)

“However, this engagement also raises questions about the promotion of democratic principles and civilian rule, which are core values in Western democracies.”

Ultimately, bridging the difference of opinion between Western governments and African military leaders on approaches to governance will be essential for long-term stability and security of the region, said Hudson.

The cooperation of all parties concerned, including the international community, regional bodies and the local population, will also be critical to finding effective solutions to the complex challenges faced by countries in West Africa.

The military coup has implications for the future of regional cooperation, according to Fidel Amakye Owusu, an international relations and security analyst based in Ghana.

“Nigeria, which borders Niger to the north, has historically relied on close cooperation to address security concerns, particularly in the fight against extremism,” he told Arab News.

However, “the lack of democratic civilian rule might lead to uncertainties and challenges in coordinating intelligence sharing and joint operations against violent extremism,” said Owusu.

“As seen in Mali and Burkina Faso, where military takeovers have occurred, the transition to military rule does not necessarily translate into peace, stability or gains in the fight against extremism.”




Militants in Mali. (Social media)

This can be compounded by the inability of a weak and unstable government to deal with the root causes of socioeconomic challenges effectively.

In such circumstances, there might be limited resources and capacity to implement policies and programs that address unemployment, poverty and social inequality.

As a result, “this situation provides an opportunity for extremist groups to fill the void by offering financial incentives and ideological narratives that resonate with vulnerable populations,” said policy specialist Nkosi.

“There is indeed a risk of Niger becoming a breeding ground for terrorist recruitment if the situation is not effectively addressed.”

Seconding Nkosi’s opinion on the governance crisis, PAX’s Zwijneburg said: “If there is no meaningful attempt to address the grievances of minority groups, there will be enough fertile ground that militants groups will be able to exploit, where even the presence of combat drones won’t make a significant difference.”


Hungary PM Orban says Europe cannot finance Ukraine war alone

Updated 4 sec ago
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Hungary PM Orban says Europe cannot finance Ukraine war alone

  • Viktor Orban: ‘The Americans will quit this war, first of all they will not encourage the war’
BUDAPEST: The United States under the presidency of Donald Trump will “quit” the war in Ukraine and Europe cannot finance this war alone, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told state radio on Friday before an informal summit of EU leaders in Budapest.
“The Americans will quit this war, first of all they will not encourage the war,” Orban said. “Europe cannot finance this war alone ... some still want to continue sending enormous amounts of money into this lost war but the number of those who remain silent ...and those who cautiously voice that we should adjust to the new situation, is growing.”

United Nations warily awaits Donald Trump’s return to power

Updated 08 November 2024
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United Nations warily awaits Donald Trump’s return to power

  • Concerns at UN about Washington’s budget contributions
  • Trump expected to withdraw from climate deal again
  • UN has done ‘prudent planning’ ahead of Trump return

GENEVA: The United Nations has been planning for the possible return of Donald Trump and the cuts to US funding and engagement with world body that are likely to come with his second term as president.
There was a sense of “déjà vu and some trepidation” at the 193-member world body, said one senior Asian diplomat, as Republican Trump won Tuesday’s US election over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
“There is also some hope that a transactional administration will engage the UN on some areas even if it were to defund some dossiers. After all, what bigger and better global stage is there than the United Nations?” said the diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity.
A US retreat at the UN could open the door for China, which has been building its influence in global diplomacy.
Trump has offered few specifics about foreign policy in his second term but supporters say the force of his personality and his “peace through strength” approach will help bend foreign leaders to his will. He has vowed to solve the war in Ukraine and is expected to give strong support to Israel in its conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
Among the top concerns at the UN are whether the United States will decide to contribute less money to the world body and withdraw from key multinational institutions and agreements, including the world Heath Organization and the Paris climate agreement.
US funding is the immediate worry. Washington is the UN’s largest contributor — with China second — accounting for 22 percent of the core UN budget and 27 percent of the peacekeeping budget.
A country can be up to two years in arrears before facing the possible repercussion of losing its General Assembly vote.

’Extremely hard’
Trump came to power last time proposing to cut about a third off US diplomacy and aid budgets, which included steep reductions in funding for UN peacekeeping and international organizations. But Congress, which sets the federal US government budget, pushed back on Trump’s proposal.
A UN spokesperson said at the time the proposed cuts would have made it impossible to continue all essential work.
“The UN secretariat has known that they could face a Trump comeback all year. There has been prudent planning behind the scenes on how to manage potential US budget cuts,” said Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group.
“So (UN Secretary-General Antonio) Guterres and his team are not totally unprepared, but they know the next year will be extremely hard,” he said.
Trump’s team did not immediately respond to a query about his policy toward the UN after he takes office in January.
During his first term, Trump complained that the US was shouldering an unfair burden of the cost of the UN and pushed for reforms. Washington is traditionally slow to pay and when Trump left office in 2021 the US was in arrears about $600 million for the core budget and $2 billion for peacekeeping.
According to UN figures, President Joe Biden’s administration currently owes $995 million for the core UN budget and $862 million for the peacekeeping budget.
“I don’t want to pre-empt or speak about policies that may or may not happen, but we work with member states in the way we’ve always worked with member states,” Guterres’ spokesperson Stephane Dujarric told reporters on Wednesday.
In 2026, the UN Security Council will choose Guterres’ successor, a decision in which the Trump administration will hold a veto power.

’Great news for China’
During Trump’s first term, he was critical of the United Nations and wary of multilateralism. He announced plans to quit the World Health Organization, and pulled out of the UN Human Rights Council, the UN cultural agency UNESCO, a global climate change accord and the Iran nuclear deal.
When Biden succeeded him in 2021, he rescinded the US decision to withdraw from the WHO and returned the US to UNESCO and the climate agreement. Trump’s campaign has said he would quit the climate deal again if he won office.
“It will survive. But, of course, it will probably survive severely undermined,” Guterres told Reuters in September of a second withdrawal from the climate pact by Trump.
Ahead of the US election, a senior European diplomat said a Trump win would be “great news for China,” recalling that during Trump’s first term “the Chinese influence in the UN increased a lot because it was an open bar for the Chinese.”
The diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that if Trump again cuts UN funding and withdraws from international pacts “it will just give China the opportunity to present itself as the supporter number one of multilateralism.”
US funding for some other UN agencies is also in question. One of the first moves by the Trump administration in 2017 was to cut funding for UN Population Fund (UNFPA), the international body’s agency focused on family planning as well as maternal and child health in more than 150 countries.
Trump’s administration said UNFPA “supports ... a program of coercive abortion or involuntary sterilization.” The UN said that was an inaccurate perception. Biden restored US funding for UNFPA.
If Trump again cuts funding, UNFPA warned that “women will lose lifesaving services in some of the world’s most devastating crises” in places like Afghanistan, Sudan and Ukraine.
Under Trump’s first presidency, the US also opposed long-agreed international language on women’s sexual and reproductive rights and health in UN resolutions over concern that it would advance abortion rights.
A senior African diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, summed up the impending return of Trump for multilateralism and the United Nations: “The heavens help us.”


At least 25 wounded as apartment building hit by Russian missile

Updated 08 November 2024
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At least 25 wounded as apartment building hit by Russian missile

  • 12-story residential building was struck by a bomb that partially destroyed the first and third floors
  • A barrage of drones also struck Odesa and its suburbs in south of the country, wounding at least two people

KYIV: At least 25 people were wounded in an overnight Russian strike on an apartment block in Kharkiv, the mayor of Ukraine’s second city said Friday.
The 12-story residential building was struck by a bomb that partially destroyed the first and third floors, Mayor Igor Terekhov wrote on Telegram.
“The number of injured keeps increasing. As of now, there are 25 of them,” he added.
Rescue efforts were under way for inhabitants trapped on the third floor.
The Ukrainian president’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, accused Russia of “deliberately hitting an apartment block.”
“The Russians are also attacking Kyiv with missiles,” he added.
Separately, Kyiv’s military office said that anti-missile air defenses were operating in the capital.
A barrage of drones also struck Odesa and its suburbs in the south of the country, wounding at least two people, the region’s governor Oleg Kiper said.
Kyiv was targeted on Thursday by another “massive” Russian drone attack that wounded two people, damaged buildings and sparked fires in several districts, Ukrainian authorities said.
Russia has systematically targeted the capital with drone and missile barrages since the first day of its invasion launched nearly three years ago on February 24, 2022.
Ukrainian authorities have been seeking air defense systems from their allies to fend off Russian aerial attacks.


At least 2 dead and 12 missing after a fishing boat sinks off South Korea’s Jeju island

Updated 08 November 2024
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At least 2 dead and 12 missing after a fishing boat sinks off South Korea’s Jeju island

  • Nearby fishing vessels managed to pull 15 crew members out of the water, but two of them were later pronounced dead
  • 27 crew members were on the 129-tonne boat, which left Jeju’s Seogwipo port late Thursday to catch mackerel

SEOUL: A fishing boat capsized and sank off the coast of South Korea’s Jeju island Friday, leaving at least two people dead and 12 others unaccounted for, coast guard officials said.
Nearby fishing vessels managed to pull 15 crew members out of the water, but two of them were later pronounced dead after being brought to shore. The other 13 did not sustain life-threatening injuries, said Kim Han-na, an official at Jeju’s coast guard.
She said 27 crew members – 16 South Korean nationals and 11 foreigners – were on the 129-tonne boat, which left Jeju’s Seogwipo port late Thursday to catch mackerel. The coast guard received a distress signal at around 4:30 a.m. Friday from a nearby fishing vessel that conducted rescue efforts as the boat sank 24 kilometers northwest of the island.
At least 11 vessels and nine aircraft from South Korea’s coast guard, police, fire service and military were deployed as of Friday morning to search for survivors. They were being assisted by 13 civilian vessels.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol called for officials to mobilize all available resources to find and rescue the missing crew members, his office said.


South Korea holds missile drill after North Korea launches

Updated 08 November 2024
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South Korea holds missile drill after North Korea launches

  • The nuclear-armed North had test-fired what it said was its most advanced and powerful solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile
  • Hyunmoo surface-to-surface short-range missile was sent into the West Sea in the exercise

SEOUL: South Korea fired a ballistic missile into the sea in a show of force after North Korea’s recent salvo of missile launches, Seoul said Friday.
The nuclear-armed North had test-fired what it said was its most advanced and powerful solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) as well as a number of short-range ballistic missiles in separate drills over the last two weeks.
South Korea’s military command said its live-fire exercise was aimed at demonstrating its “strong resolve to firmly respond to any North Korean provocation.”
It also underlined its “capability and readiness for precision strikes against the enemy’s origin of provocation,” the Joint Chiefs of Staff added.
A Hyunmoo surface-to-surface short-range missile was sent into the West Sea in the exercise, the military command said.
South Korea started domestic production of short-range ballistic missiles in the 1970s to counter the threats posed by North Korea.
Hyunmoo are a series of missiles which are key to the country’s so-called ‘Kill Chain’ preemptive strike system, which allows Seoul to launch a preemptive attack if there are signs of imminent North Korean attack.
In early October, the country displayed for the first time its largest ballistic missile, the Hyunmoo-5, which is capable of destroying underground bunkers.
Last Sunday, South Korea, Japan and the United States conducted a joint air drill involving a US B-1B bomber, South Korean F-15K and KF-16 fighter jets, and Japanese F-2 jets, in response to the North’s ICBM launch.
Such joint drills infuriate Pyongyang, which views them as rehearsals for invasion.
Kim Yo Jong, sister of the country’s leader and a key spokesperson, called the US-South Korea-Japan exercises an “action-based explanation of the most hostile and dangerous aggressive nature of the enemy toward our Republic.”
The drill was an “absolute proof of the validity and urgency of the line of building up the nuclear forces we have opted for and put into practice,” she added.