How Niger’s military coup threatens efforts to root out Islamist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel

Supporters of the Nigerien defense forces attacked the headquarters of the political party of deposed President Mohamed Bazoum in Niamey on Thursday. (AFP)
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Updated 02 August 2023
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How Niger’s military coup threatens efforts to root out Islamist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel

  • Experts say Niger is at risk of becoming a breeding ground for terrorist recruitment following July 26 coup
  • Daesh and Al-Qaeda affiliates have most to gain from chaos in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, say analysts

JUBA, South Sudan: Niger has become the third nation in the troubled Sahel region in as many years to suffer a military coup, causing concern among Western leaders and neighboring states over the repercussions for the ongoing fight against Islamist insurgency.

President Mohamed Bazoum, who is currently confined to his official residence in the capital, Niamey, was toppled on July 26 by his own presidential guard. The head of the elite force, Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, has declared himself the new leader.

Coming in the wake of similar military takeovers in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali, the US and former colonial power France have demanded Bazoum’s reinstatement, acknowledging his key role in the fight against extremism.

The African Union and the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, have likewise insisted on the need to restore stability to effectively confront the extremist threat, indicating neighboring states might consider using force to reinstate Bazoum.




General Abdourahmane Tiani, who was declared as the new head of state of Niger by leaders of a coup, arrives to meet with ministers in Niamey, Niger. (Reuters)

Niger’s strategic position in the Sahel region, bordered by countries experiencing violent extremism, makes it an important ally in the international fight against Islamist insurgency. Before the coup, Niger actively participated in regional counterterrorism initiatives.

However, the coup and its potential disruption to governance and security could jeopardize these vital partnerships and impede the progress of regional security efforts.

Aneliese Bernard, director of the Washington D.C.-based risk advisory group Strategic Stabilization Advisors, says similar coups in the region show that extremist groups have the most to gain from these episodes of instability.

“History has shown that groups like the Islamic State Sahel Province and Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin have successfully capitalized on governance and security vacuums left by states consumed with internal political issues and this has allowed them to expand their influence in Mali and Burkina Faso following recent coups,” Bernard told Arab News.

JNIM and ISSP are two rival radical groups operating in the region. It is not uncommon for individuals to switch sides between these groups, which further complicates the security situation in the region.

JNIM operates in neighboring Mali, with activities extending across West Africa, having pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb, or AQIM.




Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin in Burkina Faso. (Supplied)

ISSP, meanwhile, operates as the Sahelian affiliate of Daesh and has also been involved in attacks across the region.

According to Bernard, the coup has destabilized the governance and security apparatus in Niger’s southwestern Tillaberi region, close to the triple frontier with Burkina Faso and Mali, where the ISSP is active.

“In such situations, JNIM and ISSP might seize the opportunity to exploit the absence of state authority and promote themselves as alternatives to governance and security,” she said.

“By championing the perception that neglected and marginalized communities in the periphery are left without support from the government, these jihadist groups have managed to infiltrate remote communities successfully.”

One targeted group is the Fulani people, an ethnic minority in the region, accused by authorities of harboring terrorist sympathies. Due to their status as a discriminated minority, extremist groups have found some success recruiting among their ranks.

Virginie Baudais, director of the Sahel and West Africa Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, says the possibility of Western aid being suspended as a result of the coup raises questions about how Niger’s security forces will handle the Islamist threat.

“Armed groups have consistently targeted defense and security forces in the region, making it essential for the international community to realign its priorities and support,” Baudais told Arab News.

FASTFACTS

• President Mohamed Bazoum was toppled by his own presidential guard on July 26.

• The coup follows similar military takeovers in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali.

• Experts say radical groups like JNIM and ISSP have the most to gain from coups.

“However, while the situation has continued to deteriorate, people do not feel protected by international troops. That is why they support their armed forces in the fight against terrorism, but support for the coup perpetrators is not unanimous.”

Alex Nkosi, a Malawian policy specialist based in the West African country of Togo, likewise highlights the potential for divisions within Niger’s military ranks.

“The coup could invoke divisions within the military because not all soldiers support the military indulgence in politics,” Nkosi told Arab News. He is also doubtful Niger’s armed forces will have the means to go it alone against the extremist groups.

“If military aid and assistance from the US and France are suspended due to the coup, Niger’s security forces may face challenges in maintaining operational capabilities,” said Nkosi.

“The loss of resources, intelligence-sharing platforms, and training programs could therefore weaken their ability to confront well-armed and organized Islamist groups effectively. Niger may have to seek alternative sources of support or re-evaluate its strategies to address the security challenges independently.”

Those alternatives may include Russia’s Wagner Group — the private military contractor now based in Belarus since its abortive uprising against Russia’s military leadership in June this year.




French President Emmanuel Macron with Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum at the Elysee Palace in June. (AFP)

Wagner has been making significant inroads into Burkina Faso and Mali since their respective militaries took power, providing manpower and expertise in the fight against extremists. Given the pro-Russian sentiments among Niger’s coup leaders, it is perhaps only a matter of time before Wagner soldiers emerge from the shadows.

Against this backdrop, according to Wim Zwijneburg, humanitarian disarmament project leader for the Dutch peace organisation PAX, a pullout by French forces from Niger will likely also prompt a removal of MQ-9 Reapers by the Americans, who have drone bases in Agadez, 740 kilometers northeast of Niamey.

“Combat drones operated by the two countries have been instrumental in the monitoring of militant cross-border movement in the Sahel,” Zwijneburg told Arab News.

“A lack of these air assets for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) missions will mean less information available to track militant groups, including Daesh affiliates, in the region and to respond in a timely fashion.

“This may translate into a new wave of attacks if the national armies do not have alternatives to fill the vacuum. Though Niger recently stocked its own armed drone fleet with Turkish TB-2s, it is not clear if security forces have succeeded in integrating them fully into existing counterterrorism operations.”

Cameron Hudson, a former CIA analyst and consultant on African peace, security, and governance issues, says if the US and France are serious about combating the radical Islamist threat, Western nations will have to reassess their willingness to engage with military-led governments.

“The seriousness of the Islamist threat and other security challenges in the region might force them to engage with military leaders who now find themselves on the front line of the fight against terrorism,” he told Arab News.




Thousands protested in front of the French Embassy in Niamey. (AFP)

“However, this engagement also raises questions about the promotion of democratic principles and civilian rule, which are core values in Western democracies.”

Ultimately, bridging the difference of opinion between Western governments and African military leaders on approaches to governance will be essential for long-term stability and security of the region, said Hudson.

The cooperation of all parties concerned, including the international community, regional bodies and the local population, will also be critical to finding effective solutions to the complex challenges faced by countries in West Africa.

The military coup has implications for the future of regional cooperation, according to Fidel Amakye Owusu, an international relations and security analyst based in Ghana.

“Nigeria, which borders Niger to the north, has historically relied on close cooperation to address security concerns, particularly in the fight against extremism,” he told Arab News.

However, “the lack of democratic civilian rule might lead to uncertainties and challenges in coordinating intelligence sharing and joint operations against violent extremism,” said Owusu.

“As seen in Mali and Burkina Faso, where military takeovers have occurred, the transition to military rule does not necessarily translate into peace, stability or gains in the fight against extremism.”




Militants in Mali. (Social media)

This can be compounded by the inability of a weak and unstable government to deal with the root causes of socioeconomic challenges effectively.

In such circumstances, there might be limited resources and capacity to implement policies and programs that address unemployment, poverty and social inequality.

As a result, “this situation provides an opportunity for extremist groups to fill the void by offering financial incentives and ideological narratives that resonate with vulnerable populations,” said policy specialist Nkosi.

“There is indeed a risk of Niger becoming a breeding ground for terrorist recruitment if the situation is not effectively addressed.”

Seconding Nkosi’s opinion on the governance crisis, PAX’s Zwijneburg said: “If there is no meaningful attempt to address the grievances of minority groups, there will be enough fertile ground that militants groups will be able to exploit, where even the presence of combat drones won’t make a significant difference.”


Putin says China is Russia’s ally, backs its stance on Taiwan

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Putin says China is Russia’s ally, backs its stance on Taiwan

  • The two countries have not declared a formal military alliance, but have signed a ‘no limits’ partnership deal in 2022
  • Putin suggested that Taiwan was trying to stir up a Ukraine-style crisis in Asia in order to attract outside support
SOCHI, Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin described China on Thursday as Russia’s ally and threw his weight behind Beijing’s claims over Taiwan, while stating that no countries had anything to fear from deepening Sino-Russian co-operation.
The two countries have not declared a formal military alliance, but Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a “no limits” partnership deal in 2022, less than three weeks before Putin sent his troops into Ukraine.
In May this year they agreed to deepen what they called their “comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation” for a new era.
“We do not believe that China is pursuing an aggressive policy in the region,” Putin said at the Valdai discussion club in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi.
He suggested that Taiwan was trying to stir up a Ukraine-style crisis in Asia in order to attract outside support.
China views democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory, despite strong objections by the government in Taipei, and regularly holds wargames near the island.
“A lot is going on around Taiwan,” Putin said. “Everyone formally acknowledges, yes, Taiwan is part of China. But in reality? In reality, it is acting in a completely different direction. Provoking the situation toward escalation.
“We do support China. And because of this, we believe that (China) is conducting a completely reasonable policy. And also because it is our ally. We have a very large trade turnover, we co-operate in the security sector.”
Taiwan’s foreign ministry said China and Russia were the real problem.
“The regime of Russia’s Putin launched a war of aggression against Ukraine, leading to misery for Ukraine’s people and sanctions and condemnation from the international community,” it said in a statement.
“China and Russia together continue to undermine the rule-based international order and have become a serious threat to world peace and stability.”
Putin compared military drills between Russia and China to those the United States holds with Japan.
“These exercises do not threaten anyone,” Putin said. “They are aimed at ensuring our security.”

Swiss ‘burqa ban,’ condemned by Muslims, to take effect from Jan. 1, 2025

Updated 51 min 38 sec ago
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Swiss ‘burqa ban,’ condemned by Muslims, to take effect from Jan. 1, 2025

  • Anyone who unlawfully flouts the ban faces a fine of up to $1,144
  • Facial coverings remain permitted for reasons relating to health, safety

ZURICH: A contentious Swiss prohibition on facial coverings in public spaces widely known as the “burqa ban” will take effect on Jan. 1, the government said on Wednesday.
Narrowly passed in a 2021 referendum in neutral Switzerland, and condemned by Muslim associations, the measure was launched by the same group that organized a 2009 ban on new minarets.
The governing Federal Council said in a statement it had fixed the start of the ban, and that anyone who unlawfully flouts it faces a fine of up to 1,000 Swiss francs ($1,144).
The ban does not apply to planes or in diplomatic and consular premises, and faces may also be covered in places of worship and other sacred sites, the government said.
Facial coverings will remain permitted for reasons relating to health and safety, for native customs, or due to weather conditions, it said. They would also be allowed on artistic and entertainment grounds and for advertising, it added.
If such coverings are needed for personal protection in exercising freedom of expression and assembly, they should be permitted provided the responsible authority has already approved them and public order is not compromised, it said.
 


Two separatist militants, two government-run militia members killed in Indian-administered Kashmir

Updated 58 min 29 sec ago
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Two separatist militants, two government-run militia members killed in Indian-administered Kashmir

  • Militants in the Indian-administered portion of Kashmir have been fighting New Delhi’s rule since 1989
  • Many support rebels’ goal of uniting the territory, either under Pakistani rule or as independent country

NEW DELHI: Two suspected militants were killed in a gunfight with government forces in Indian-administered Kashmir, officials said Friday, while assailants killed two members of a government-sponsored militia elsewhere in the disputed region.
The region, divided between India and Pakistan but claimed by both in its entirety, has experienced an increase in violence in recent weeks.
The Indian military said a joint team of soldiers and police raided a village near northwestern Sopore town late Thursday following a tip about the presence of a group of militants.
The militants “fired indiscriminately” at the troops, leading to a gunbattle in which two were killed, the military said in a statement.
Troops were continuing to search the area, it said. There was no independent confirmation of the incident.
Meanwhile, assailants killed two members of a government-run militia called the “Village Defense Group” in the remote southern Kishtwar area late Thursday, officials said.
Police blamed rebels fighting against Indian rule in Kashmir for the killings.
The two were abducted from a forested area where they had gone to graze cattle on Thursday. Their bodies were found late Thursday, police said.
The militia was initially formed in the 1990s as a defense against anti-India insurgents in remote Himalayan villages that government forces could not reach quickly. As the insurgency waned in their areas and as some militia members gained notoriety for brutality and rights violations, the militia was largely disbanded.
However last year, after the killing of seven Hindus in two attacks in a remote mountainous village near the highly militarized Line of Control that divides Kashmir between India and Pakistan, authorities revived the militia and began rearming and training thousands of villagers, including some teenagers.
The Kashmir Tigers, which Indian officials say is an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammad militant group, claimed responsibility for the killings of the two in a statement on social media. The statement could not be independently verified.
Militants in the Indian-administered portion of Kashmir have been fighting New Delhi’s rule since 1989. Many Muslim Kashmiris support the rebels’ goal of uniting the territory, either under Pakistani rule or as an independent country.
India insists the Kashmir militancy is “Pakistan-sponsored terrorism.” Pakistan denies the charge, and many Kashmiris consider it a legitimate freedom struggle. Tens of thousands of civilians, rebels and government forces have been killed in the conflict.
 


Philippine president signs new laws to assert South China Sea rights, sovereignty

Updated 08 November 2024
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Philippine president signs new laws to assert South China Sea rights, sovereignty

  • China summons Philippine ambassador to lodge solemn representations over the new laws
  • Unclear if laws could reduce incidents with China in Manila’s exclusive economic zone

MANILA: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed two laws on Friday aimed at strengthening the country’s maritime claims and bolstering its territorial integrity, as tensions with China over disputed areas in the South China Sea persist.
The Maritime Zones Act and the Archipelagic Sea Lanes Act would define the Philippines’ maritime entitlements and set designated sea lanes and air routes to reinforce sovereignty and maritime rights under international law.
China has summoned the Philippine ambassador to lodge solemn representations over two new laws, its foreign ministry said on Friday.
Marcos hailed the laws as a demonstration of the Philippines’ commitment to uphold an international rules-based order, and protect its rights to exploit resources peacefully in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
“Our people, especially our fisher folk, should be able to pursue their livelihood free from uncertainty and harassment,” Marcos said. “We must be able to harness mineral and energy resources in our sea bed.”
While the two laws were envisioned to help US ally the Philippines to monitor and defend against potential encroachment, questions remain about how they will be enforced and if they will impact Chinese activity in the Philippine EEZ.
China asserts its claim of sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea through an armada of coast guard ships, some of which are accused by its neighbors of aggressive conduct and of trying to disrupt energy and fisheries activity in their EEZs.
Senator Francis Tolentino, one of the authors of the maritime zones measure, said he does not expect tensions in Philippine EEZ will be instantly reduced with the implementation of the new laws.
“China will not recognize these, but the imprimatur that we’ll be getting from the international community would strengthen our position,” Tolentino told a press conference.
China’s embassy in Manila did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the new laws and senator’s remarks.
Tolentino also said the laws would reinforce a 2016 arbitration ruling on the South China Sea, which declared China’s expansive claims had no basis under international law. China has rejected the 2016 decision.


Hungary PM Orban says Europe cannot finance Ukraine war alone

Updated 08 November 2024
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Hungary PM Orban says Europe cannot finance Ukraine war alone

  • Viktor Orban: ‘The Americans will quit this war, first of all they will not encourage the war’

BUDAPEST: The United States under the presidency of Donald Trump will “quit” the war in Ukraine and Europe cannot finance this war alone, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban told state radio on Friday before an informal summit of EU leaders in Budapest.
“The Americans will quit this war, first of all they will not encourage the war,” Orban said. “Europe cannot finance this war alone ... some still want to continue sending enormous amounts of money into this lost war but the number of those who remain silent ...and those who cautiously voice that we should adjust to the new situation, is growing.”