Why Sudan’s conflict defies diplomacy and de-escalation efforts

Smoke plumes billow from a fire in south Khartoum, main, amid the ongoing violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which began on April 15. (AFP)
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Updated 15 August 2023
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Why Sudan’s conflict defies diplomacy and de-escalation efforts

  • Warring sides have repeatedly violated a series of fragile ceasefires, leading to the suspension of talks
  • Many see a power-sharing arrangement as the only incentive for de-escalation in the short or long run

NAIROBI, Kenya: Now approaching its fourth month, the conflict in Sudan has continued to intensify with little sign of the feuding factions returning to the negotiating table.

More than 4 million people have now fled from their homes — 3.2 million people displaced internally, and close to 900,000 people who have crossed the border into Chad, Egypt, South Sudan and other countries.

Despite the nonstop fighting, neither side is believed to be close to achieving victory or making significant battlefield gains. Nevertheless, many see dialogue following by power sharing as the only way to achieve de-escalation in the short or long run.

Malik Agar, deputy chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, recently set out a government-proposed road map to end the conflict, beginning with the separation of the warring parties and culminating in a comprehensive political process.

Agar’s proposal, outlined on Aug. 6, prioritized the delivery of humanitarian aid and the safeguarding of civilians with a subsequent shift of focus toward an inclusive political process with power-sharing agreements.

However, analysts remain cautious about any such peace initiatives, pointing to several factors that keep the military and its paramilitary foe from committing themselves to a lasting settlement, thereby prolonging the conflict.




This grab from UGC video footage posted on social media on August 8 shows a member of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) firing an automatic machine gun turret mounted on the back of a truck towards positions held by the Rapid Support Forces in central Omdurman. (AFP/UGC image)

“There have been scarce instances of ceasefires with enduring longevity. Especially in the initial stages of the conflict, ceasefires were frequently breached within mere hours,” Abiol Lual Deng, a South Sudanese-American political scientist, told Arab News.

“This underscores a situation where both sides seem unwilling to accept victory for the opposing faction.”

Instead, analysts believe efforts are needed to address the root causes of the conflict if a sustainable resolution is to be found, including steps to reduce militarization and tribalism, while also reviving the waning interest of the international community.

The power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces, commanded by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, escalated into violence on April 15.

The conflict has resulted in thousands of casualties, millions of displaced people, and a major humanitarian emergency.

Fighting has killed at least 3,900 people nationwide, according to a conservative estimate by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, while more than 4 million people have been uprooted from their homes, according to the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR.




Chadian cart owners transport belongings of Sudanese people who fled the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region, while crossing the border between Sudan and Chad in Adre, Chad August 4, 2023. (Reuters)

The UN says more than 6 million people are “just one step away from famine,” as aid groups struggle to deliver life-saving assistance through bureaucratic hurdles, security challenges and targeted attacks.

Despite the efforts of the international community to initiate talks and find a solution, the conflict has persisted, as both sides have repeatedly violated a series of fragile ceasefires, leading to the suspension of peace talks.

The SAF withdrew its negotiating delegation from the Jeddah process in July due to the RSF’s refusal to redeploy its forces outside Khartoum.

Diplomats and aid agencies are concerned about the consequences of a prolonged conflict, both from a humanitarian standpoint and as a matter of wider regional security.

Indeed, the violence threatens to push the nation into an all-out civil war, which could drag neighboring states into the fray and leave borders open to exploitation by extremist groups.

The SAF has in recent weeks been ramping up its mobilization through the establishment of training camps in the northern River Nile state and the town of Kassala, providing basic training to volunteers — some of whom are reportedly underage.




An image grab taken from a handout video posted on the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) page on Twitter on July 28 shows its commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo addressing RSF fighters at an undisclosed location. (AFP)

Concerns have been multiplied by the fact that recruitment appears to follow tribal lines, which could aggravate inter-communal tensions. Developments such as these could also serve to prolong the conflict.

Sudan had long been undergoing a process of militarization even before the latest uptick in violence. Both the SAF and the RSF had already become the biggest employers in the country, outstripping even the Ministry of Education.

For many in Sudan, the SAF, despite numerous allegations of atrocities, remains associated with statehood, while the RSF is seen as a mercenary militia that grew from a provincial paramilitary unit into a force capable of challenging the national army.

INNUMBERS

* 3,900 Conservative estimate of people killed. (ACLED)

* 4m People have been uprooted from their homes. (UNHCR)

* 80% Proportion of Sudan’s hospitals now out of service. (WHO)

* 6m People who are “just one step away from famine.” (UN)

“The RSF, having no public support in the capital, relentlessly pursues a campaign of violence to displace people that they have no trust in,” Osama Ahmed Odorous Ahmed, an associate professor of strategic and security studies, told Arab News.

“Now, they want to gain control over strategic locations by pursuing grievous offenses including looting, rape, and merciless attacks on innocent civilians.”

The RSF’s lack of support among the people of Khartoum might end up being its Achilles’ heel, however, forcing it to ultimately seek a compromise with the SAF.




Sudan’s history is one of resilience and perseverance, and its people deserve a chance at peace and stability, said Abiol Lual Deng, a South Sudanese-American political scientist. (Supplied)

Marco Arnaboldi, a security professional and an expert on militant Islamism, argues that because the RSF is “well aware of facing opposition from a restive population, which in the end hinders their ability to consolidate power,” it will come to an agreement with the SAF at some point.

He says the RSF’s strategic approach is therefore to bolster its military position before embarking on any negotiations, which makes a prolonged stalemate the most likely scenario.

“The RSF is resolute in enhancing its position through continued military advancements, recognizing the complexities on the ground. Their goal isn’t total control of the nation, let alone effective governance,” Arnaboldi told Arab News.

“From a purely military perspective, a long stalemate looks likely, as the SAF is also showing a dreadful inability to regain the lost territories, especially in Khartoum.

“The RSF, while it is expanding its military control over the country, is grappling with internal disorganization and inadequate supply lines.”

The notion of pressuring the RSF to relinquish control and embrace genuine political discourse might offer a ray of hope, yet this path comes with its challenges.




Experts say addressing the conflict’s root causes is key to preventing further escalation and achieving a lasting solution. (Reuters)

“The splintering of authority and interests among different factions and elites has set back the chances of a harmonious outcome for the nation,” said Odorous Ahmed.

“There is potential for a military resolution supported by external reinforcements for the RSF, as it has external backers, but also diplomatic avenues through negotiated agreements, as well as the exertion of international pressure propelled by regional powers, and the elusive pursuit of political reconciliation.”

Deng underscored the need for a multifaceted approach to de-escalating the conflict and resuming the transition process, involving civilian leaders, regional powers, and the international community.

“A significant step involves insisting on a democratic transition, where civilian leadership plays a pivotal role in steering the nation toward stability and inclusivity,” she said.


Paramilitary shelling on camp kills 8 in Sudan’s Darfur: rescuers

Updated 6 sec ago
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Paramilitary shelling on camp kills 8 in Sudan’s Darfur: rescuers

The bombardment hit Abu Shouk camp, which hosts tens of thousands of displaced people
Thursday’s offensive comes just days after a series of attacks by the RSF targeted another battleground region of Sudan

PORT SUDAN: Paramilitary forces shelled a displacement camp in Sudan’s Darfur region on Thursday, killing eight civilians and injuring others, a local rescue group said.

The bombardment hit Abu Shouk camp, which hosts tens of thousands of displaced people on the outskirts of El Fasher, the besieged capital of North Darfur.

El-Fasher remains the last major stronghold in Sudan’s western Darfur region not under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who have been at war with the regular army since April 2023.

“The Abu Shouk camp witnessed heavy artillery bombardment by the RSF... killing eight people,” the camp’s Emergency Response Room said in a statement.

In recent weeks, El-Fasher, which has been under paramilitary siege since last year, has been locked in intense fighting between warring sides in a region also gripped by famine.

Thursday’s offensive comes just days after a series of attacks by the RSF targeted another battleground region of Sudan.

More than 450 people, including 35 children, were killed in several villages of North Kordofan, southwest of the capital Khartoum, according to a statement released this week by the UN’s children agency.

“No child should ever experience such horrors,” said UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell. “Violence against children is unconscionable and must end now.”

On Sunday, the RSF claimed to have killed more than 470 army personnel near the town of El-Obeid, also in North Kordofan, in a statement posted to its Telegram channel.

Independent verification of casualties in Sudan remains difficult due to restricted access to its conflict zones.

Now in its third year, the conflict has killed tens of thousands and forced millions to flee, creating what the United Nations describes as the world’s largest displacement crisis.

In December last year, famine was officially declared in three displacement camps near El-Fasher, namely Zamzam, Abu Shouk and Al-Salam, according to the UN.

Since the Sudanese army regained control of the capital Khartoum in March, the RSF has shifted its operations westward, focusing on Darfur and Kordofan in a bid to consolidate territorial gains.

In April, RSF fighters seized the Zamzam displacement camp, located near Abu Shouk.

The assault forced nearly 400,000 people to flee, according to UN figures, effectively emptying one of the country’s largest camps for the displaced.

Sudanese analyst Mohaned el-Nour told AFP the RSF aims to redefine its role in the conflict.

“Their goal is no longer to be seen as a militia, but as an alternative government in western Sudan, undermining the legitimacy of the authorities in Port Sudan.”

He added that the recent surge in violence in North Kordofan was likely intended to divert the army’s attention from El Fasher, where the military is trying “at all costs” to maintain.

Europe’s largest missile maker supplying parts to Israel for bombs used in Gaza

Updated 43 min 28 sec ago
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Europe’s largest missile maker supplying parts to Israel for bombs used in Gaza

  • GBU-39 bombs identified as having killed civilians, including children
  • UN special rapporteur: ‘Genocide continues because it is lucrative for many’

LONDON: Parts made by Europe’s largest missile maker are being used in bombs launched by Israel in airstrikes on Gaza, an investigation has found.

A joint report by The Guardian, Disclose and Follow the Money discovered that components produced by MBDA are used to construct the GBU-39 bomb. 

Wing-like parts, called Diamond-Blacks and manufactured at MBDA’s plant in Alabama, are fitted to the 250 lb GBU-39, which is made by Boeing, allowing the bomb to manoeuver mid-air toward targets. 

The GBU-39 is sent to Israel as part of the US military aid program, bought directly from Boeing and transferred from American military stocks.
Deployed aerially from fighter jets over combat zones, an estimated 4,800 have been sent to Israel since the Gaza war began in October 2023.

Open-source analysis found that the weapon has been deployed at least 24 times in Gaza in incidents where civilians, including children, were killed.
The attacks often came at night, targeting shelters including school buildings, camps and a mosque. At least 500 people have been killed in the identified cases, including more than 100 children.

The UN and Amnesty International have both raised concerns that a number of incidents involving GBU-39s amount to war crimes.

Donatella Rovera, a senior investigator at Amnesty, told The Guardian: “Those launching attacks have a legal duty to take precautions so as to avoid harming civilians — even in cases where there may be a military target at the location — including by not striking locations full of civilians.”

Last year, Foreign Secretary David Lammy suspended a number of arms export licenses to Israel over fears that UK-made equipment could be used to commit “serious violations” of international law in Gaza.

But campaigners told The Guardian that the use of Diamond-Black wings, manufactured in the US, shows the limits of the UK government’s measures, which cannot ban the export of items made overseas by sister companies of British firms.

Francesca Albanese, UN special rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories, said in a report last month that numerous private sector firms continue to arm Israel despite warnings of human rights violations, war crimes and genocide in Gaza. 

“The present report shows why the genocide carried out by Israel continues: because it is lucrative for many,” she added.

Sam Perlo-Freeman, research coordinator at Campaign Against the Arms Trade, told The Guardian: “We would support the UK government taking all actions that are within their powers to stop the genocide.
“Beyond an arms embargo, this includes sanctions on companies arming Israel, banning UK investments in such companies.”

MBDA’s code of ethics states that it is “committed to taking the utmost care in identifying and preventing negative direct and indirect impacts our activities may have on human rights, fundamental freedoms and people health and safety.”


Israeli strikes on south Lebanon kill two

Updated 17 July 2025
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Israeli strikes on south Lebanon kill two

  • Two people were killed Thursday in separate Israeli strikes on south Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry said

BEIRUT: Two people were killed Thursday in separate Israeli strikes on south Lebanon, the Lebanese health ministry said, in the latest attacks despite a ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah.
The ministry said that “an Israeli drone strike targeted a car” in the Nabatiyeh district, killing one person and wounding two others.
Another strike “targeted a truck in the town of Naqura” in southern Lebanon “resulting in one martyr,” it said in a statement.
The Israeli army did not immediately comment on the incidents.
Israel has repeatedly bombed Lebanon despite a November ceasefire seeking to end over a year of hostilities with Lebanese armed group Hezbollah.
Under the agreement, Hezbollah was to pull its fighters back north of the Litani river, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the Israeli border, leaving the Lebanese army and United Nations peacekeepers as the only armed parties in the region.
Israel was required to fully withdraw its troops from the country but has kept them in five places it deems strategic.


Belgian court orders regional government to stop military exports to Israel

Updated 17 July 2025
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Belgian court orders regional government to stop military exports to Israel

  • Belgian court orders regional government to stop military exports to Israel, Belga reports

BRUSSELS: A court in Brussels on Thursday ordered the regional Flemish government to stop all transit of military equipment to Israel, Belgian news agency Belga reported.
The region is home to the Antwerp-Bruges port — one of the largest in Europe.


Israel to boost defense spending by $12.5 billion amid regional conflicts on multiple fronts

Updated 17 July 2025
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Israel to boost defense spending by $12.5 billion amid regional conflicts on multiple fronts

  • The budget is expected to enable the Defense Ministry to advance urgent deals critical to national security, a statement said

JERUSALEM: Israel will increase defense spending by 42 billion shekels ($12.5 billion) this year and in 2026, the finance and defense ministries announced on Thursday, citing mounting security challenges.

The budget agreement will enable the Defense Ministry to "advance urgent and essential procurement deals critical to national security," the ministries said in a joint statement.

The funding boost comes as Israel remains engaged on multiple regional fronts, including its ongoing war against Hamas in Gaza, marked by heavy casualties and widespread destruction. As well as cross-border hostilities with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and recent strikes with Iran last month in an unprecedented escalation between the two countries.

Israel has also intensified its airstrikes in Syria, targeting sites near the presidential palace and the defense ministry in central Damascus. Meanwhile, it has carried out a series of aerial attacks on Houthi positions in Yemen in response to Houthi attacks.