Why Sudan’s conflict defies diplomacy and de-escalation efforts

Smoke plumes billow from a fire in south Khartoum, main, amid the ongoing violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which began on April 15. (AFP)
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Updated 15 August 2023
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Why Sudan’s conflict defies diplomacy and de-escalation efforts

  • Warring sides have repeatedly violated a series of fragile ceasefires, leading to the suspension of talks
  • Many see a power-sharing arrangement as the only incentive for de-escalation in the short or long run

NAIROBI, Kenya: Now approaching its fourth month, the conflict in Sudan has continued to intensify with little sign of the feuding factions returning to the negotiating table.

More than 4 million people have now fled from their homes — 3.2 million people displaced internally, and close to 900,000 people who have crossed the border into Chad, Egypt, South Sudan and other countries.

Despite the nonstop fighting, neither side is believed to be close to achieving victory or making significant battlefield gains. Nevertheless, many see dialogue following by power sharing as the only way to achieve de-escalation in the short or long run.

Malik Agar, deputy chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, recently set out a government-proposed road map to end the conflict, beginning with the separation of the warring parties and culminating in a comprehensive political process.

Agar’s proposal, outlined on Aug. 6, prioritized the delivery of humanitarian aid and the safeguarding of civilians with a subsequent shift of focus toward an inclusive political process with power-sharing agreements.

However, analysts remain cautious about any such peace initiatives, pointing to several factors that keep the military and its paramilitary foe from committing themselves to a lasting settlement, thereby prolonging the conflict.




This grab from UGC video footage posted on social media on August 8 shows a member of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) firing an automatic machine gun turret mounted on the back of a truck towards positions held by the Rapid Support Forces in central Omdurman. (AFP/UGC image)

“There have been scarce instances of ceasefires with enduring longevity. Especially in the initial stages of the conflict, ceasefires were frequently breached within mere hours,” Abiol Lual Deng, a South Sudanese-American political scientist, told Arab News.

“This underscores a situation where both sides seem unwilling to accept victory for the opposing faction.”

Instead, analysts believe efforts are needed to address the root causes of the conflict if a sustainable resolution is to be found, including steps to reduce militarization and tribalism, while also reviving the waning interest of the international community.

The power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces, commanded by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, escalated into violence on April 15.

The conflict has resulted in thousands of casualties, millions of displaced people, and a major humanitarian emergency.

Fighting has killed at least 3,900 people nationwide, according to a conservative estimate by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, while more than 4 million people have been uprooted from their homes, according to the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR.




Chadian cart owners transport belongings of Sudanese people who fled the conflict in Sudan's Darfur region, while crossing the border between Sudan and Chad in Adre, Chad August 4, 2023. (Reuters)

The UN says more than 6 million people are “just one step away from famine,” as aid groups struggle to deliver life-saving assistance through bureaucratic hurdles, security challenges and targeted attacks.

Despite the efforts of the international community to initiate talks and find a solution, the conflict has persisted, as both sides have repeatedly violated a series of fragile ceasefires, leading to the suspension of peace talks.

The SAF withdrew its negotiating delegation from the Jeddah process in July due to the RSF’s refusal to redeploy its forces outside Khartoum.

Diplomats and aid agencies are concerned about the consequences of a prolonged conflict, both from a humanitarian standpoint and as a matter of wider regional security.

Indeed, the violence threatens to push the nation into an all-out civil war, which could drag neighboring states into the fray and leave borders open to exploitation by extremist groups.

The SAF has in recent weeks been ramping up its mobilization through the establishment of training camps in the northern River Nile state and the town of Kassala, providing basic training to volunteers — some of whom are reportedly underage.




An image grab taken from a handout video posted on the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) page on Twitter on July 28 shows its commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo addressing RSF fighters at an undisclosed location. (AFP)

Concerns have been multiplied by the fact that recruitment appears to follow tribal lines, which could aggravate inter-communal tensions. Developments such as these could also serve to prolong the conflict.

Sudan had long been undergoing a process of militarization even before the latest uptick in violence. Both the SAF and the RSF had already become the biggest employers in the country, outstripping even the Ministry of Education.

For many in Sudan, the SAF, despite numerous allegations of atrocities, remains associated with statehood, while the RSF is seen as a mercenary militia that grew from a provincial paramilitary unit into a force capable of challenging the national army.

INNUMBERS

* 3,900 Conservative estimate of people killed. (ACLED)

* 4m People have been uprooted from their homes. (UNHCR)

* 80% Proportion of Sudan’s hospitals now out of service. (WHO)

* 6m People who are “just one step away from famine.” (UN)

“The RSF, having no public support in the capital, relentlessly pursues a campaign of violence to displace people that they have no trust in,” Osama Ahmed Odorous Ahmed, an associate professor of strategic and security studies, told Arab News.

“Now, they want to gain control over strategic locations by pursuing grievous offenses including looting, rape, and merciless attacks on innocent civilians.”

The RSF’s lack of support among the people of Khartoum might end up being its Achilles’ heel, however, forcing it to ultimately seek a compromise with the SAF.




Sudan’s history is one of resilience and perseverance, and its people deserve a chance at peace and stability, said Abiol Lual Deng, a South Sudanese-American political scientist. (Supplied)

Marco Arnaboldi, a security professional and an expert on militant Islamism, argues that because the RSF is “well aware of facing opposition from a restive population, which in the end hinders their ability to consolidate power,” it will come to an agreement with the SAF at some point.

He says the RSF’s strategic approach is therefore to bolster its military position before embarking on any negotiations, which makes a prolonged stalemate the most likely scenario.

“The RSF is resolute in enhancing its position through continued military advancements, recognizing the complexities on the ground. Their goal isn’t total control of the nation, let alone effective governance,” Arnaboldi told Arab News.

“From a purely military perspective, a long stalemate looks likely, as the SAF is also showing a dreadful inability to regain the lost territories, especially in Khartoum.

“The RSF, while it is expanding its military control over the country, is grappling with internal disorganization and inadequate supply lines.”

The notion of pressuring the RSF to relinquish control and embrace genuine political discourse might offer a ray of hope, yet this path comes with its challenges.




Experts say addressing the conflict’s root causes is key to preventing further escalation and achieving a lasting solution. (Reuters)

“The splintering of authority and interests among different factions and elites has set back the chances of a harmonious outcome for the nation,” said Odorous Ahmed.

“There is potential for a military resolution supported by external reinforcements for the RSF, as it has external backers, but also diplomatic avenues through negotiated agreements, as well as the exertion of international pressure propelled by regional powers, and the elusive pursuit of political reconciliation.”

Deng underscored the need for a multifaceted approach to de-escalating the conflict and resuming the transition process, involving civilian leaders, regional powers, and the international community.

“A significant step involves insisting on a democratic transition, where civilian leadership plays a pivotal role in steering the nation toward stability and inclusivity,” she said.


Amnesty urges Syria to probe sectarian massacres as war crimes

Updated 12 sec ago
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Amnesty urges Syria to probe sectarian massacres as war crimes

Many from Assad’s Alawite minority have feared reprisals for his brutal rule
The massacres “must be investigated as war crimes,” Amnesty said in a statement

BEIRUT: Rights group Amnesty International on Thursday called on the Syrian government to ensure accountability for sectarian massacres targeting the Alawite minority last month, saying they may constitute war crimes.
Several days of violence starting on March 6 saw the worst sectarian bloodshed since Islamist-led forces overthrew longtime president Bashar Assad, with massacres largely in the Alawite coastal heartland.
Many from Assad’s Alawite minority have feared reprisals for his brutal rule.
Amnesty said that “the Syrian government must ensure that the perpetrators of a wave of mass killings targeting Alawite civilians in coastal areas are held accountable.”
The massacres “must be investigated as war crimes,” it said in a statement.
Truth, justice and reparation are “crucial to ending cycles of atrocities,” it added.
The United Nations human rights office has said that “perpetrators raided houses, asking residents whether they were Alawite or Sunni before proceeding to either kill or spare them accordingly,” with men shot dead in front of their families.
Online footage, which AFP was unable to independently verify, showed men in military garb shooting people at close range.
Amnesty’s secretary-general, Agnes Callamard, said: “Once again, Syrian civilians have found themselves bearing the heaviest cost as parties to the conflict seek to settle scores.”
Interim President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, whose Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) led the offensive that toppled Assad in December, has vowed to prosecute those behind the “bloodshed of civilians” and has set up a fact-finding committee, which has yet to announce its results.
Amnesty said authorities must “ensure independent, effective investigations of these unlawful killings and other war crimes.”
The Syrian authorities have accused armed Assad supporters of sparking the violence by attacking the new security forces.
Callamard said evidence indicated that “government affiliated militias deliberately targeted” Alawite civilians “in gruesome reprisal attacks,” with people killed “in cold blood.”
“For two days, authorities failed to intervene to stop the killings,” she said.
The violence has sent more than 21,000 fleeing to neighboring Lebanon, the UN has said, with thousands more seeking refuge at a Russian air base on the Mediterranean coast.
Amnesty said the Syrian government must “take immediate steps to ensure that no person or group is targeted on the basis of their sect.”

Israel steps up Syria strikes, says Turkiye aims for ‘protectorate’

Updated 03 April 2025
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Israel steps up Syria strikes, says Turkiye aims for ‘protectorate’

  • The Israeli army said its forces killed several militants who opened fire on Israeli troops
  • Reflecting Israeli concerns about Turkish influence in the new Syria, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar accused Ankara of playing a “negative role” there

DAMASCUS/JERUSALEM: Israel stepped up airstrikes on the Syrian Arab Republic overnight, declaring the attacks a warning to the new Islamist rulers in Damascus as it accused their Turkish allies on Thursday of trying to turn the country into a Turkish protectorate.
The strikes, targeting air bases, a site near Damascus and the southwest, put renewed focus on Israeli concerns about the Islamists who deposed Bashar Assad in December, with Israeli officials viewing them as a rising threat at their border.
The Israeli army, which seized ground in the southwest after Assad was toppled, said its forces killed several militants who opened fire on Israeli troops operating in that area overnight. Syria’s state news agency SANA said that Israeli shelling had killed nine people in the area.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that the airstrikes late on Wednesday evening were “a clear message and a warning for the future — we will not allow the security of the State of Israel to be harmed.”
Katz said in a statement that Israel’s armed forces would remain in buffer zones within Syria and act against threats to its security, warning Syria’s government it would pay a heavy price if it allowed forces hostile to Israel to enter.
Reflecting Israeli concerns about Turkish influence in the new Syria, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar accused Ankara of playing a “negative role” there, in Lebanon and other regions.
“They are doing their utmost to have Syria as a Turkish protectorate. It’s clear that is their intention,” he told a press conference in Paris.
The Syrian foreign ministry said the Israeli strikes were an unjustified escalation aimed at destablising the country, calling on the international community to put pressure on Israel to “stop its aggression.”
Israel bombed Syria frequently when the country was governed by Assad, targeting the foothold established by his ally Iran during the civil war.

AIR BASE DESTROYED
The strikes late on Wednesday night were some of the most intensive Israeli attacks in Syria since Assad was toppled.
The Syrian foreign ministry said Israel struck five separate areas within a 30-minute window, resulting in the near-complete destruction of the Hama air base and wounding dozens of civilians and soldiers.
The Israeli military said it had struck remaining military capabilities at air bases in Hama and Homs provinces, in addition to remaining military infrastructure in the Damascus area, where Syrian media and officials said the vicinity of a scientific research facility was hit.
In Hama, a Syrian military source told Reuters a dozen strikes demolished the runways, tower, arms depots and hangars at the military airport. “Israel has completely destroyed Hama air base to ensure it is not used,” the source said.
Israel also said on Wednesday it targeted the T4 air base in Homs province, which it has repeatedly hit over the past week.
In the incident in southwestern Syria, the Israeli military said its forces were operating in the Tasil area, “confiscating weapons and destroying terrorist infrastructure” when several militants fired on them.
“The forces responded with fire and eliminated several armed terrorists from the ground and air,” the Israeli military said, adding there were no casualties among Israeli forces.
“The presence of weapons in southern Syria constitutes a threat to the State of Israel,” it said. “The IDF will not allow a military threat to exist in Syria and will act against it.”


Israeli strikes on Gaza overnight leaves more than 50 Palestinians dead

Updated 03 April 2025
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Israeli strikes on Gaza overnight leaves more than 50 Palestinians dead

  • The Israeli military ordered the residents of several areas — Shujaiya, Jadida, Turkomen and eastern Zeytoun — to evacuate on Thursday
  • Israel has imposed a month-long halt on all imports of food, fuel and humanitarian aid that has left civilians facing acute shortages as supplies dwindle

DEIR AL BALAH: Overnight strikes by Israel killed at least 55 people across the Gaza Strip, hospital officials said Thursday, a day after senior government officials said Israel would seize large areas of Gaza and establish a new security corridor across the Palestinian territory.
Israel has vowed to escalate the nearly 18-month war with Hamas until the militant group returns dozens of remaining hostages, disarms and leaves the territory. Israel has imposed a month-long halt on all imports of food, fuel and humanitarian aid that has left civilians facing acute shortages as supplies dwindle.
Officials in Khan Younis, in the southern part of the strip, said the bodies of 14 people had been taken to Nasser Hospital – nine of them from the same family. The dead included five children and four women. The bodies of another 19 people, including five children aged between 1 and 7 years and a pregnant woman, were taken to the European hospital near Khan Younis, hospital officials said. In Gaza City, 21 bodies were taken to Ahli hospital, including those of seven children.
The Israeli military ordered the residents of several areas — Shujaiya, Jadida, Turkomen and eastern Zeytoun — to evacuate on Thursday, adding that the army “will work with extreme force in your area.” It said people should move to shelters west of Gaza City.
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel was establishing a new security corridor across the Gaza Strip to pressure Hamas, suggesting it would cut off the southern city of Rafah, which Israel has ordered evacuated, from the rest of the Palestinian territory.
Netanyahu referred to the new axis as the Morag corridor, using the name of a Jewish settlement that once stood between Rafah and Khan Younis, suggesting it would run between the two southern cities. He said it would be “a second Philadelphi corridor ” referring to the Gaza side of the border with Egypt further south, which has been under Israeli control since last May.
Israel has reasserted control over the Netzarim corridor, also named for a former settlement, that cuts off the northern third of Gaza, including Gaza City, from the rest of the narrow coastal strip. Both of the existing corridors run from the Israeli border to the Mediterranean Sea.
“We are cutting up the strip, and we are increasing the pressure step by step, so that they will give us our hostages,” Netanyahu said.
The Western-backed Palestinian Authority, led by rivals of Hamas, expressed its “complete rejection” of the planned corridor. Its statement also called for Hamas to give up power in Gaza, where the militant group has faced rare protests recently.
Netanyahu’s announcement came after the defense minister, Israel Katz, said Israel would seize large areas of Gaza and add them to its so-called security zones, apparently referring to an existing buffer zone along Gaza’s entire perimeter. He called on Gaza residents to “expel Hamas and return all the hostages,” saying “this is the only way to end the war.”
Hamas has said it will only release the remaining 59 hostages — 24 of whom are believed to be alive — in exchange for the release of more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire and an Israeli pullout. The group has rejected demands that it lay down its arms or leave the territory.
Netanyahu visits Hungary
Netanyahu arrived in Hungary early Thursday on his second foreign trip since the world’s top war crimes court issued an arrest warrant against him in November over Israel’s war in Gaza.
Based in The Hague, Netherlands, the the International Criminal Court has said there was reason to believe Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant used “starvation as a method of warfare” by restricting humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, and intentionally targeted civilians in Israel’s campaign against Hamas — charges that Israeli officials deny.
ICC member countries, such as Hungary, are required to arrest suspects facing a warrant if they set foot on their soil, but the court has no way to enforce that and relies on states to comply. As Netanyahu arrived in Budapest, Hungary said it will begin the procedure of withdrawing from the ICC.
Plans for Gaza
On Sunday, Netanyahu said Israel plans to maintain overall security control of Gaza after the war and implement US President Donald Trump’s proposal to resettle much of its population elsewhere through what the Israeli leader referred to as “voluntary emigration.”
Palestinians have rejected the plan, viewing it as expulsion from their homeland after Israel’s offensive left much of it uninhabitable, and human rights experts say implementing the plan would likely violate international law.
The war began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages, most of whom have since been released in ceasefire agreements and other deals. Israel rescued eight living hostages and has recovered dozens of bodies.
Israel’s offensive has killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t say whether those killed are civilians or combatants. Israel says it has killed around 20,000 militants, without providing evidence.
The war has left vast areas of Gaza in ruins and at its height displaced around 90 percent of the population.
Israeli strikes on Syria
Separately, Israeli strikes killed at least nine people in southwestern Syria, Syrian state media reported Thursday.
SANA said the nine were civilians, without giving details. Britain-based war monitor The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said they were local gunmen from the Daraa province, frustrated with Israeli military encroachment and attacks in recent months.
Israel has seized parts of southwestern Syria and created a buffer-zone there, which it says is to secure Israel’s safety from armed groups. But critics say the military operation has created tensions in Syria and prevents any long-term stability and reconstruction for the war-torn country.
Israel also struck five cities in Syria late Wednesday, including over a dozen strikes near a strategic air base in the city of Hama.


Germany urges return to ‘serious’ talks on Gaza truce

Updated 03 April 2025
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Germany urges return to ‘serious’ talks on Gaza truce

  • Speaking alongside Jordan’s King Abdullah II in Berlin, Scholz also called for more humanitarian aid for Gaza

Berlin: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Thursday for a return to “serious” negotiations to end the Gaza conflict as Israel pushed on with a renewed assault targeting Hamas in the territory.
“What is needed now is a return to the ceasefire and the release of all hostages,” Scholz said, urging a return to “serious negotiations with the aim of agreeing a post-war order for Gaza that protects Israel’s security.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that the military was “dissecting” the Gaza Strip and seizing territory to pressure Hamas into freeing hostages still held in the enclave.
The war was sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, which resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people, according to an AFP tally based on Israeli official figures.
Israel resumed intense bombing of Gaza on March 18 before launching a new ground offensive, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire.
At least 1,066 people have been killed in Gaza since Israel resumed military operations there, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.
Speaking alongside Jordan’s King Abdullah II in Berlin, Scholz also called for more humanitarian aid for Gaza.
“No humanitarian aid has reached Gaza for a month,” he said. “This cannot and must not continue.”
He added that “a sustainable peace that stabilizes the situation in the West Bank as well as Gaza can only be achieved through a political solution.”
Abdullah II also called for a return to a ceasefire and for aid deliveries to resume into Gaza.
“Israel’s war on Gaza must stop. The ceasefire must be reinstated... and aid flow must resume,” he said.
“The humanitarian tragedy in Gaza has already reached unspeakable levels and action must be taken to immediately address it.”


UN rights chief says ‘appalled’ by reports of Khartoum executions

Updated 03 April 2025
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UN rights chief says ‘appalled’ by reports of Khartoum executions

GENEVA: UN rights chief Volker Turk said Thursday that he was “appalled” by reports of extrajudicial killings of civilians in Sudan’s capital Khartoum last week after its recapture by the army from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
“I am utterly appalled by the credible reports of numerous incidents of summary executions of civilians in several areas of Khartoum, on apparent suspicions that they were collaborating with the Rapid Support Forces,” Turk said in a statement.