China’s yuan hits over 9-month low on weak economy 

The dollar rose broadly against a basket of currencies thanks to a resilient US economy which firmed bets for US interest rates to stay higher for longer. (Shutterstock)
Short Url
Updated 17 August 2023
Follow

China’s yuan hits over 9-month low on weak economy 

SHANGHAI: China’s yuan fell to over nine-month lows against the dollar on Thursday, as widening yield differentials with the US and expectations of more policy easing by Beijing eclipsed a firmer-than-expected guidance fix and state bank support.  

The dollar rose broadly against a basket of currencies thanks to a resilient US economy which firmed bets for US interest rates to stay higher for longer. That contrasted with expectations for further monetary easing in China to prop up a faltering economic recovery, driving yield differentials between the world’s two largest economies to the widest level in 16 years and pressuring the yuan. 

Prior to market opening, the People’s Bank of China set the midpoint rate, around which the yuan is allowed to trade in a 2 percent band, at 7.2076 per dollar prior to market opening, 90 pips weaker than the previous fix of 7.1986 and the weakest since July 6.  

However, the fixing was still much stronger than market projections — about 971 pips firmer than Reuters' estimate of 7.3047.  

Maybank analysts said the stronger-than-expected fixing showed the central bank’s continued efforts to ensure the yuan doesn’t fall too low versus the dollar. “That said, CFETS yuan index has started to soften and that could help to support exports and this is much needed given the fact that domestic demand could probably take a while to recover,” they said in a note.  

The CFETS yuan basket index, a gauge that measures yuan’s value against its major trading partners, fell to 97.33 on Thursday, according to Reuters calculations based on official data. The index, the lowest since Aug. 8, and has lost 1.36 percent year-to-date.  

In the spot market, the onshore yuan opened at 7.3101 per dollar and weakened to a low of 7.3174, the softest level since Nov. 3, 2022. By midday, it was changing hands at 7.3149, 159 pips weaker than the previous late session close.  

Its offshore counterpart followed the weakening trend to an over nine-month low of 7.3490. It lasted at 7.3381 per dollar around midday. To prevent the yuan from sinking too fast, sources told Reuters that China’s major state-owned banks were seen busy selling dollars to buy yuan in both onshore and offshore spot foreign exchange markets.  

State banks often act on behalf of China’s central bank in the country’s foreign exchange market, but they could also trade on their own behalf or execute their clients’ orders. Offshore branches of the state banks were seen selling dollars during London and New York trading hours this week, sources said.  


Saudi Aramco lowers propane, butane prices for May

Updated 11 sec ago
Follow

Saudi Aramco lowers propane, butane prices for May

RIYADH: Saudi Aramco has reduced its official selling prices for propane and butane for May 2025, according to a company statement issued on Tuesday.

The price of propane was cut by $5 per tonne to $610, while butane saw a steeper reduction of $15 per tonne, bringing it to $590. The adjustments reflect shifts in market conditions and follow a downward trend from the previous month.

Propane and butane, both classified as liquefied petroleum gas, are widely used for heating, as vehicle fuel, and in the petrochemical industry. Their differing boiling points make each suitable for distinct industrial and domestic applications.

Aramco’s LPG prices are considered key benchmarks for supply contracts from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region.

The global LPG market is undergoing a significant shift as steep tariffs on US imports prompt Chinese buyers to replace American cargoes with supplies from the Middle East.

Meanwhile, US shipments are being redirected to Europe and other parts of Asia.

This realignment is expected to put downward pressure on prices and demand for shale gas byproducts, posing financial challenges for both US shale producers and Chinese petrochemical companies. At the same time, it is likely to drive increased interest in alternative feedstocks such as naphtha.

Middle Eastern suppliers are emerging as key beneficiaries, filling the gap left by reduced US exports to China. In addition, opportunistic buyers in Asian markets like Japan and India are capitalizing on the price drops to secure more favorable deals.


Trump to reduce impact of auto tariffs, commerce secretary says

Updated 29 April 2025
Follow

Trump to reduce impact of auto tariffs, commerce secretary says

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump’s administration will move to reduce the impact of his automotive tariffs on Tuesday by alleviating some duties imposed on foreign parts in domestically manufactured cars and keeping tariffs on cars made abroad from piling on top of other ones, officials said.

“President Trump is building an important partnership with both the domestic automakers and our great American workers,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in a statement provided by the White House.

“This deal is a major victory for the President’s trade policy by rewarding companies who manufacture domestically, while providing runway to manufacturers who have expressed their commitment to invest in America and expand their domestic manufacturing.”

The Wall Street Journal, which first reported the development, said the move meant car companies paying tariffs would not be charged other levies, such as those on steel and aluminum, and that reimbursements would be given for such tariffs that were already paid.

A White House official confirmed the report and indicated the move would be made official on Tuesday.

Trump is traveling to Michigan on Tuesday to commemorate his first 100 days in office, a period that the Republican president has used to upend the global economic order.

The move to soften the effects of auto levies is the latest by his administration to show some flexibility on tariffs, which have sown turmoil in financial markets, created uncertainty for businesses and sparked fears of a sharp economic slowdown.

Automakers said earlier on Monday they were expecting Trump to issue relief from the auto tariffs ahead of his trip to Michigan, which is home to the Detroit Three automakers and more than 1,000 major auto suppliers.

General Motors, CEO Mary Barra and Ford CEO Jim Farley praised the planned changes. “We believe the president’s leadership is helping level the playing field for companies like GM and allowing us to invest even more in the US economy,” Barra said.

Farley said the changes “will help mitigate the impact of tariffs on automakers, suppliers and consumers.”

Last week, a coalition of US auto industry groups urged Trump not to impose 25 percent tariffs on imported auto parts, warning they would cut vehicle sales and raise prices.

Trump had said earlier he planned to impose tariffs of 25 percent on auto parts no later than May 3.

“Tariffs on auto parts will scramble the global automotive supply chain and set off a domino effect that will lead to higher auto prices for consumers, lower sales at dealerships and will make servicing and repairing vehicles both more expensive and less predictable,” the industry groups said in the letter.

The letter from the groups representing GM, Toyota Motor, Volkswagen, Hyundai and others, was sent to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce’s Lutnick.

“Most auto suppliers are not capitalized for an abrupt tariff induced disruption. Many are already in distress and will face production stoppages, layoffs and bankruptcy,” the letter added, noting “it only takes the failure of one supplier to lead to a shutdown of an automaker’s production line.” 


IMF Executive Board to meet on May 9 to review Pakistan’s loan programs

Updated 29 April 2025
Follow

IMF Executive Board to meet on May 9 to review Pakistan’s loan programs

  • IMF board’s approval of staff-level agreement with Pakistan will pave the way for disbursement of $1 billion
  • Islamabad also secured a new loan program with IMF in March to help build resistance against natural disasters 

KARACHI: The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Executive Board will meet on May 9 to review its staff-level agreement with Pakistan for an ongoing $7bn bailout program and a new climate resilience loan scheme with Islamabad, the global lender said on its website recently. 

The IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan in March on the first review of the country’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new $1.3 billion loan arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). Pakistan secured the EFF program last year and deems it crucial to escape a prolonged economic crisis. The staff-level agreement, once approved by the IMF Executive Board, will pave the way for an immediate disbursement of about $1 billion for Pakistan.

The RSF, on the other hand, will support Pakistan’s efforts in building resilience to natural disasters, enhancing budget and investment planning to promote climate adaptation, improve the efficient and productive use of water. It will also help in strengthening Pakistan’s climate information architecture to improve the disclosure of climate risks and align energy sector reforms with mitigation targets.

“May 9, 2025, Pakistan-first review under the extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and request for an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility,” the IMF wrote on its website on Friday, disclosing its Executive Board’s schedule. 

Pakistan has been prone to natural disasters and consistently ranks among the most severely affected countries in the world due to climate change effects. Unusually heavy rains and melting of glaciers in 2022 triggered flash floods across the country, killing over 1,700 people and inflicting losses over $33 billion. 

The IMF program has played a key role in stabilizing Pakistan’s battered economy, which has made some gains in recent months, most notably a reduced inflation rate. The government has said the country is on course for a long-term recovery, while Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has vowed Islamabad will continue to implement financial reforms mandated by the international lender. 

Pakistan secured the $7 billion loan program in September 2024 as it attempted to consolidate its economy since averting a default in 2023. Islamabad has since undertaken several reforms to reduce public debt, maintain low inflation, improve energy sector viability, and accelerate growth.

Pakistan hopes to achieve further economic progress by increasing its exports and attracting foreign investment from regional allies, particularly the Gulf countries. Islamabad has signed memoranda of association (MoUs) regarding trade and investment worth billions of dollars with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, China and other countries in recent months. 


Oil Updates — crude falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook

Updated 29 April 2025
Follow

Oil Updates — crude falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook

SINGAPORE: Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors lowered their demand growth expectations due to the ongoing trade war between the US and China, the world’s two biggest economies.

Brent crude futures fell by 78 cents, or 1.18 percent, to $65.08 per barrel by 10:49 a.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 75 cents, or 1.21 percent, to $61.30 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than $1 on Monday.

“Markets are closely monitoring the US-China trade negotiations, understanding that deteriorating trade relations between the world’s two largest economies could lead the global economy toward a recession,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“The lack of confidence in future demand and the absence of concrete signals for demand revival in mainland China will continue to overshadow oil prices.”

US President Donald Trump’s push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all US imports has created a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll.

China, hit with the steepest of those tariffs, has responded with its own levies against US imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil consuming nations. That has prompted analysts to sharply lower their oil demand and price forecasts.

Barclays on Monday cut its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 a barrel, citing elevated trade tensions and a pivot in production strategy by the OPEC+ group as drivers of a 1 million barrel per day oil supply surplus this year.

Meanwhile, several members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, sources told Reuters last week.

“A substantial (oil) price decrease appears probable if exporting countries boost production,” oil analyst Philip Verleger said in a note.

US crude oil stockpiles also likely rose by about 500,000 barrels in the week ended April 15, according to a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts on Monday.

Industry group American Petroleum Institute will publish its estimates on US oil inventories on Tuesday. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration will follow on Wednesday.


PIF’s AviLease secures investment-grade ratings from Moody’s, Fitch

Updated 29 April 2025
Follow

PIF’s AviLease secures investment-grade ratings from Moody’s, Fitch

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s AviLease has secured investment-grade corporate credit ratings from Moody’s and Fitch Ratings, as the global aircraft lessor continues to expand its portfolio and strategic role within the Kingdom’s aviation sector.

Owned by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, AviLease announced it received a Baa2 rating with a stable outlook from Moody’s and a BBB rating with a stable outlook from Fitch.

The two agencies highlighted AviLease’s high-quality portfolio of new-technology aircraft with a strong credit mix, alongside its robust balance sheet and growth trajectory.

They noted that the company is expected to become one of the largest players in the global leasing industry by 2030.

“The ratings open the door for even greater financial flexibility, as we will be able to tap into the unsecured debt capital markets,” Edward O’Byrne, CEO of AviLease, said in a press release.

He continued: “Achieving investment-grade ratings in under three years since our establishment is a remarkable feat, and we believe it positions AviLease within a select group of lessors in the industry in record time.”

The ratings also recognize AviLease’s strategic role in supporting PIF’s aviation sector initiatives under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.

“These ratings will enable AviLease to access global capital markets to finance its business strategies, positioning itself at the forefront of the aircraft leasing industry, in complete alignment with the National Aviation Strategy and Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030,” Fahad Al-Saif, chairman of AviLease, said.