As Daesh terror attacks continue, what explains the group’s resilience in Syria?

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Despite their territorial the militants continue to threaten communities across Syria. (AP)
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Updated 24 August 2023
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As Daesh terror attacks continue, what explains the group’s resilience in Syria?

  • Daesh has carried out thousands of attacks on military and civilian targets since its territorial defeat in 2019
  • Experts say the terror group has exploited geography and the wider conflict to maintain a continued presence

QAMISHLI, Syria: During the second week of August, the terror group Daesh carried out multiple attacks on Syrian regime soldiers in the governorates of Raqqa and Deir Ezzor, leaving dozens dead and more injured.

With attacks in Syria’s central and eastern regions only continuing to grow in frequency and severity, some may wonder whether the group was truly eliminated when its defeat was announced in 2019.

Saturday, March 23, 2019, was a joyous occasion for the men and women of the Syrian Democratic Forces, the multi-ethnic, US-backed force which led the ground war against Daesh in Syria, as well as the people living in the autonomous regions of northern and eastern Syria.

From Manbij to Kobani, from Raqqa to Hasakah and Qamishli, the streets of cities in Syria’s northeast were packed with people from all walks of life celebrating Daesh’s final defeat at the Battle of Baghouz.




File photo shows Daesh militants parading in the Syrian city of Raqa on June 30, 2014, at the height of their reign of terror in parts of Syria and Iraq. (Welayat Raqa handout photo via AFP)

Little did they know that despite the group’s loss of territory, it would go on to maintain bases both inside and outside of the country, which it still uses to carry out operations in Syria.

“(Daesh) uses different frameworks for the continuation of its extremist ideology,” Sardar Mullah Darwish, a Syrian Kurdish journalist and director of Aso News Network, told Arab News.

The group “relies on cells spread in different areas in the governorates of Raqqa, Deir Ezzor, and southern Hasakah, and particularly in the Badia, where they are in areas that are not fully controlled by the coalition, the SDF, or even the armed forces of the regime and other military forces,” he said.

Darwish added that Daesh sustains itself via financial extortion, threatening wealthy residents and those working with international or local NGOs. He added that the use of motorcycles and the black veil known as the niqab are both ways in which the group attempts to camouflage itself among civilians.




A child stands by a bullet riddled wall in the northern Syrian city of Raqa, the former Syrian capital of the Daesh group, on August 21, 2019. (AFP file)

Daesh carries out attacks on both regime-held areas and regions held by the SDF. According to Darwish, these attacks are attempts “to show continued presence and strength.”

The divided nature of Syria complicates the response.

“What remains of the terrorist group’s remnants in our regions is limited to sleeper cells, and they are dealt with firsthand by our security and military forces in coordination and cooperation with the Global Coalition,” Abu Omar Al-Idlibi, commander of the SDF-aligned Northern Democratic Brigade, told Arab News.

“As for the rest of Syria’s geography, Daesh is still strong because it represents one of the reasons for the survival of the Syrian regime as well as a justification for the presence of its supporters, Russia and Iran.”

Al-Idlibi believes the presence of Daesh is used as a justification for Iran’s increasing military presence in Syria. Iranian-backed pro-regime militias, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij Forces, Harakat Hezbollah Al-Nujaba, Kataib Hezbollah (also known as Iraqi Hezbollah), the Badr Organization, the Abu Al-Fadl Al-Abbas militia, the National Defense Forces, Liwa Al-Quds, Liwa Fatemiyoun and Liwa Zeynebiyoun, are all deployed across areas where Daesh remains strongest.




Abu Omar Al-Idlibi, commander of the SDF-aligned Northern Democratic Brigade. (AN Photo by Ali Ali)

Since its territorial defeat in Syria, Daesh has carried out more than 1,400 attacks on military and civilian targets across the country, resulting in the deaths of more than 3,000 people.

These statistics, sourced from publicly available datasets compiled by the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, also show that more than 320 of these attacks were carried out even after the 2022 death of Daesh leader Abu Ibrahim Al-Hashimi Al-Qurayshi, the successor to Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.

According to the Monitoring and Documentation Department of the local North Press Agency, direct Daesh attacks claimed more than 262 lives across the country in the first half of 2023 alone, the majority of which were civilians.

In addition to this, the terror group kidnapped more than 160 people. A large number of the victims of Daesh attacks and kidnappings were truffle pickers, who resort to scouring vast, unsafe areas of the Syrian Badia in order to gather the lucrative fungi amid difficult economic conditions.

The Syrian Badia is a massive desert, covering more than half of the country’s territory and spanning eight of Syria’s 14 governorates. The region has a history of use by insurgent groups, having been used by the Iraqi resistance during the Iraq War from 2003 to 2011.

The Badia’s geography, a mostly vast and empty expanse of rocky desert with inhabited settlements few and far between, made it ideal for Daesh as a base of operations after its flight from Baghouz.




An image grab taken from a video made available by Jihadist media outlet Welayat Homs on July 4, 2015 shows 25 Syrian government soldiers kneeling in front of what appears to be children or teenagers wearing desert camouflage, in the ancient amphitheater in the city of Palmyra, ahead of being executed. (AFP/Welayat Homs handout photo/File)

The region’s proximity to the Iraqi border further added to its allure.

“This region was well known as an area controlled by smugglers, even before the Syrian war,” said Darwish. “The border crossing between the two countries has large gaps … and there is no control of military forces such as the regime, the SDF, or the Iraqi army, and so Daesh relies on this region for its activities.”

Darwish said Daesh had in recent years dug an extensive network of tunnels in the Iraqi-Syrian border region to aid in its smuggling operations between the two countries.

For the armed forces tasked with responding to the Daesh threat, these tunnels have proved a strategic headache.

“The geographical features of the region between Syria and Iraq have a great impact on the ease of movement by Daesh, especially in the areas under the control of Iran and its militias in Al-Bukamal and Al-Mayadeen, as these border areas are transit points for terrorist organizations and militias between Iraq and Syria,” said Al-Idlibi, the Northern Democratic Brigade commander.

Despite the large network of Iranian-backed, pro-regime militias deployed across central Syria, Al-Idlibi is doubtful that Damascus is serious about confronting Daesh remnants in the Badia.

“Daesh moves freely in the areas of the Syrian Badia … it has not been truly confronted in these areas due to the fact that they are under the control of the Syrian regime and its allies.”

At the end of 2019, Syrian regime forces were withdrawn from the Badia region to focus on Damascus’ new offensive aimed at retaking Idlib from the coalition of Syrian opposition and Islamist groups that held it. Although a ceasefire was declared in Idlib in 2020, the Badia had meanwhile become one of Daesh’s new havens in Syria.




A screen grab taken from a video released on July 1, 2014, shows Daesh militants parading on top of a truck on a street in the northern rebel-held Syrian city of Raqa. (AFP / Welayat Raqa handout/File)

“There are many vast and intertwined regions between the Syrian regime areas and Autonomous Administration (of North and East Syria) areas, with many natural crossings and land, and river routes,” said Al-Idlibi.

“This allows Daesh to move easily in order to infiltrate our areas in northern and eastern Syria … (Daesh) also finds support through sleeper cells present in our regions, and thus we see the terrorist group carrying out operations (here) from time to time.”

Both military personnel on the ground and civilian observers warn that the loosely held regime areas of the Syrian Badia are not the only stronghold for Daesh. Areas in the country’s north and northwest held by a coalition of militias known as the Syrian National Army, or SNA, have also served as a relatively safe area for Daesh militants for years.

“It has become an obvious fact that instability on the social, economic and subsistence level, as well as the spread of armed organizations, extremist ideology, inhumane and criminal practices, and the suppression of freedoms in the occupied areas controlled by the factions of the so-called (Syrian) National Army and terror group Al-Nusra Front, are what provide an incubator and required quagmire for the survival and existence of the leaders and emirs of terrorist organizations, foremost of which is the terror group Daesh,” Al-Idlibi added.




Officials of the Turkiye-backed opposition "Syrian National Army" opposition group led by Brigadier Adnan Ahmad, deputy chief of staff, hold a briefing meeting attended outside the village of al-Ghandurah northwest of Manbij in the north of Syria's Aleppo province on October 16, 2019, near the frontlines with Syrian Kurdish forces. (Aaref Watad/AFP)

Since 2019, coalition forces have carried out more than 13 air and drone strikes targeting Daesh in SNA-controlled areas, the latest of which killed a Daesh commander in a village near Jinderis, in the Afrin region, in April this year.

Furthermore, a 2021 report by Aso News Network compiled a list of 95 Daesh leaders among the ranks of SNA groups.

Darwish said that further research by Aso News Network uncovered information suggesting that the 2022 Daesh prison uprising in Hasakah, which claimed the lives of 121 SDF fighters and civilians, was supported by Daesh elements hiding out in SNA-held Ras Al-Ain.

The research also showed that several Daesh families had managed to escape the infamous Al-Hol camp and settle in Ras Al-Ain and neighboring Tal Abyad.




Members of an anti-terror unit of northeast Syria's Internal Security Forces, part of the SDF, are seen at a base in Qamishli. (AN Photo by Ali Ali)

General Michael Kurilla, commander of US Central Command, was in northeast Syria on Wednesday, where he visited the Al-Hol and Al-Roj Displaced Persons Camps and met with SDF officials to review the campaign to eliminate Daesh.

“The US, SDF, and the Global Coalition remain focused and committed on the enduring defeat of Daesh while addressing the humanitarian and security challenges at camps in northeast Syria,” Kurilla said in a statement. 

While the SDF and coalition continue to combat terrorism, the solution to the terrorism problem in Syria, says Al-Idlibi, is a political one.

“The real solution to rid Syria of terrorism once and for all lies in the need to implement a political solution in Syria, which was unanimously approved by the (UN) Security Council in 2015 via Resolution 2254,” said Al-Idlibi.

“The application of democracy is the ideal solution to eradicate the sources of extremism and terrorism … because tyranny and terrorism are inseparable and interdependent; they are the reasons for one another’s survival.”

 


Jordan reopens airspace to civilian aircraft

Updated 5 sec ago
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Jordan reopens airspace to civilian aircraft

DUBAI: Jordan has reopened its airspace to civilian aircraft on Saturday, signaling belief there was no longer an immediate danger of further attacks after crossfire between Israel and Iran disrupted East-West travel through the Middle East.
But the country “is continuing to assess risks to civil aviation and monitor developments after Jordan’s airspace was reopened this morning,” a statement from the civil aviation authority said, and reported by state-run Petra news.
The Kingdom on Friday closed its airspace to all flights due to the barrage of missiles and rockets from Iran.
The statement also said airlines would be provided with the “necessary” information to notify passengers and stakeholders of the latest data on air traffic.
Lebanon’s government also temporarily reopened its airspace on Saturday.
Lebanon reopened its airspace on Saturday at 10:00 a.m. (0700 GMT).
The airspace will be shut again starting from 10:30 p.m. (1930 GMT) until 6:00 a.m. (0300 GMT) on Sunday, NNA reported, citing the Lebanese civil aviation authority.


Iran warns US, UK and France against helping stop strikes on Israel

Updated 41 min 56 sec ago
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Iran warns US, UK and France against helping stop strikes on Israel

  • Tehran warns their bases and ships in the region will be targeted

 SUMMARY

Tehran has warned the US, UK and France that their bases and ships in the region will be targeted if they help stop Iranian strikes on Israel.

Around 60 people, including 20 children, were killed in an Israeli attack on a housing complex in Iranian capital Tehran.

Israel’s defense chief warns that ‘Tehran will burn’ if it keeps firing missiles at Israeli civilians.

Iran’s civil aviation authority has declared the country’s airspace closed “until further notice.”

CAIRO: Iran has warned the United States, United Kingdom and France that their bases and ships in the region will be targeted if they help stop Tehran’s strikes on Israel, Iran state media reported on Saturday.

Iran’s state TV also reported that around 60 people, including 20 children, were killed in an Israeli attack on a housing complex in Iranian capital Tehran. Two people were also killed in an Israeli attack on a missile site in Assadabad in western Iran.

Iran’s Mehr News Agency reported an Israeli strike near the northwestern Tabriz refinery, saying smoke was rising from the facility.

Iran’s strikes against Israel will continue, with targets set to expand to include US bases in the region in the coming days, Iran’s Fars news agency reported on Saturday, citing senior Iranian military officials.

READ: Iran strikes back at Israel as flights across the region are cancelled

“This confrontation will not end with last night’s limited actions and Iran’s strikes will continue, and this action will be very painful and regrettable for the aggressors,” Fars reported, citing senior military officials.

They were quoted saying that the war would “spread in the coming days to all areas occupied by this (Israeli) regime and American bases in the region”.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that “Tehran will burn” if it keeps firing missiles at Israeli civilians.

“The Iranian dictator is taking the citizens of Iran hostage, bringing about a reality in which they, and especially Teheran’s residents, will pay a heavy price for the flagrant harm inflicted upon Israel’s citizens. If Khamenei continues to fire missiles at the Israeli home front, Tehran will burn,” Katz said in a statement.

READ: How Israeli strikes have pushed Iran’s leadership into a corner

The threat of a wider war comes as Iran and Israel continue targeting each other on Saturday after Israel launched its biggest-ever air offensive against its longtime foe in a bid to prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s civil aviation authority has declared the country’s airspace closed “until further notice,” state media reported Saturday, as Israel and Iran continued to trade fire for a second day.

“No flights will be operated at any airports in the country in order to protect the safety of passengers... until further notice,” the official IRNA news agency said.


How Israeli strikes have pushed Iran’s leadership into a corner

Updated 37 min 19 sec ago
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How Israeli strikes have pushed Iran’s leadership into a corner

  • Severely degraded missile capabilities and military network mean Tehran is unable to respond with effective strikes
  • Regional security experts believe Tehran is left with limited options, each more perilous than the other

DUBAI: Israel has gutted Iran’s nuclear and military leadership with airstrikes that leave a weakened Tehran with few options to retaliate, including an all-out war that it is neither equipped for nor likely to win, according to four regional officials.

The overnight strikes by Israel – repeated for second night on Friday – have ratcheted up the confrontation between the arch foes to an unprecedented level after years of war in the shadows, which burst into the open when Iran’s ally Hamas attacked Israel in 2023.

READ: Iran warns US, UK and France against helping stop strikes on Israel

Regional security sources said it was unlikely that Tehran could respond with similarly effective strikes because its missile capabilities and military network in the region have been severely degraded by Israel since the Hamas attacks that triggered the Gaza war.

State news agency IRNA said that Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles at Israel on Friday in retaliation. But the Israeli military said the missiles numbered fewer than 100 and most were intercepted or fell short. No casualties were immediately reported.

Rescue personnel work at an impact site following missile attack from Iran in Ramat Gan, Israel on June 14, 2025. (Reuters)

The regional security sources said Iran’s leaders, humiliated and increasingly preoccupied with their own survival, cannot afford to appear weak in the face of Israeli military pressure, raising the prospect of further escalation – including covert attacks on Israel or even the perilous option of seeking to build a nuclear bomb rapidly.

“They can’t survive if they surrender,” said Mohanad Hage Ali at the Carnegie Middle East Center, a think tank in Beirut. “They need to strike hard against Israel but their options are limited. I think their next option is withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”

Withdrawing from the NPT would be a serious escalation as it would signal Iran is accelerating its enrichment program to produce weapons-grade uranium for a nuclear bomb, experts said.

READ: UN chief urges ‘maximum restraint’ after Israel strikes Iran

Iran’s leadership has not confirmed whether it would attend a sixth round of deadlocked talks with the US over its nuclear program scheduled for Sunday in Oman.

Tehran’s regional sway has been weakened by Israel’s attacks on its proxies – from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq – as well as by the ousting of Iran’s close ally, Syrian dictator Bashar Assad.

Western sanctions have also hit Iran’s crucial oil exports and the economy is reeling from a string of crises including a collapsing currency and rampant inflation, as well as energy and water shortages.

People gather for a protest against Israel’s wave of strikes on Iran in central Tehran on June 13, 2025. (AFP)

“They can’t retaliate through anyone. The Israelis are dismantling the Iranian empire piece by piece, bit by bit … and now they’ve started sowing internal doubt about (the invincibility of) the regime,” said Sarkis Naoum, a regional expert. “This is massive hit.”

Israel strikes targeting key facilities in Tehran and other cities continued into the night on Friday. The Iranian foreign ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was defiant on Friday, saying Israel had initiated a war and would suffer “a bitter fate.”

Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, director of the Gulf Research Center think tank, said Iran has been backed into a corner with limited options. One possibility would be to offer assurances – in private – that it will abandon uranium enrichment and dismantle its nuclear capabilities, since any public declaration of such a capitulation would likely provoke a fierce domestic backlash.

Sites of strikes and explosions following the attack of June 13.

He said another option could involve a return to clandestine warfare, reminiscent of the 1980s bombings targeting US and Israeli embassies and military installations.

A third, and far more perilous option, would be to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and accelerate its uranium enrichment program.

Such a move, Sager warned, would be tantamount to a declaration of war and would almost certainly provoke a strong international response – not only from Israel, but also from the US and other Western powers.

Trump has threatened military action to ensure Iran does not obtain an atomic weapon. He reiterated his position on Thursday, saying: “Iran must completely give up hopes of obtaining a nuclear weapon.”

First responders gather outside a building that was hit by an Israeli strike in Tehran on June 13, 2025. (Tasnim News/AFP)

Iran is currently enriching uranium up to 60 percent purity, close to the roughly 90 percent it would need for nuclear weapons. It has enough material at that level, if processed further, for nine nuclear bombs, according to a UN nuclear watchdog yardstick.

Israel’s strikes overnight on Thursday targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, military commanders and nuclear scientists. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was the start of a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon.

At least 20 senior commanders were killed, two regional sources said. The armed forces chief of staff, Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Revolutionary Guards Chief Hossein Salami, and the head of the Revolutionary Guards Aerospace Force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, were among them.

People chant slogans during a protest against Israel’s wave of strikes on Iran in Enghelab (Revolution) Square in central Tehran on June 13, 2025. ( AFP)

“It’s a big attack: big names, big leaders, big damage to the Iranian military leadership and its ballistic missiles. It’s unprecedented,” said Carnegie's Hage Ali.

Sima Shine, a former chief Mossad analyst and now a researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said Israel would probably not be able to take out Iran’s nuclear project completely without US help.

“Therefore, if the US will not be part of the war, I assume that some parts of (Iran’s) nuclear project will remain,” she said on Friday.

Above, a handout satellite image released by Planet Labs on June 13, 2025, shows the Natanz nuclear facilities (Shahid Ahmadi Roshan Nuclear Facilities) near Ahmadabad, Iran on May 20, 2025. (Planet Labs/AFP)

Friday’s strikes have not only inflicted strategic damage but have also shaken Iran’s leadership to the core, according to a senior regional official close to the Iranian establishment.

Defiance has transformed into concern and uncertainty within the ruling elite and, behind closed doors, anxiety is mounting, not just over the external threats but also their eroding grip on power at home, the official said.

“Panic has surged among the leadership,” the senior regional official said. “Beyond the threat of further attacks, a deeper fear looms large: domestic unrest.”

A moderate former Iranian official said the killing in 2020 of General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the overseas arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, on the orders of President Donald Trump, started the rot.

Since then, the Islamic Republic has struggled to reassert its influence across the region and has never fully recovered. “This attack might be the beginning of the end,” he said.

If protests erupt, and the leadership responds with repression, it will only backfire, the former official said, noting that public anger has been simmering for years, fueled by sanctions, inflation and an unrelenting crackdown on dissent.

In his video address shortly after the attacks started, Netanyahu suggested he would like to see regime change in Iran and sent a message to Iranians.

“Our fight is not with you. Our fight is with the brutal dictatorship that has oppressed you for 46 years. I believe the day of your liberation is near,” he said.

The hope for regime change could explain why Israel went after so many senior military figures, throwing the Iranian security establishment into a state of confusion and chaos.

“These people were very vital, very knowledgeable, many years in their jobs, and they were a very important component of the stability of the regime, specifically the security stability of the regime,” said Shine.

Iranian state media reported that at least two nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, were killed in Israeli strikes in Tehran.

Iran’s most powerful proxy in the region, Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, is also in a weak position to respond.

In the days leading up to the strikes on Iran, security sources close to Hezbollah told Reuters the group would not join any retaliatory action by Iran out of fear such a response could unleash a new Israeli blitz on Lebanon.

Israel’s war last year against Hezbollah left the group badly weakened, with its leadership decimated, thousands of its fighters killed, and swathes of its strongholds in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s suburbs destroyed.

Analysts said Trump could leverage the fallout from the Israeli strikes to bring Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table – but this time more isolated, and more likely to offer deeper concessions.

“One thing is clear: the Iranian empire is in decline,” said regional expert Naoum. “Can they still set the terms of their decline? Not through military terms. There’s only one way to do that: through negotiations.”


Iran still undecided on joining US in nuclear talks

Updated 14 June 2025
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Iran still undecided on joining US in nuclear talks

  • "You cannot claim to negotiate and at the same time divide work by allowing the Zionist regime (Israel) to target Iran’s territory,” says Iran's foreign ministry spokesman

CAIRO/TEHRAN: Iran has yet to decide whether to join a sixth round of nuclear talks with the United States on Sunday, state media reported, as Israel and Iran traded fire for a second day.

“It is still unclear what decision we will make for Sunday,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said of the talks in Oman, quoted by the official IRNA news agency on Saturday.

Baghaei said on Friday the dialogue with the US over Tehran’s nuclear program is “meaningless” after Israel’s biggest-ever military strike against its longstanding enemy, accusing Washington of supporting the attack.

“The other side (the US) acted in a way that makes dialogue meaningless. You cannot claim to negotiate and at the same time divide work by allowing the Zionist regime (Israel) to target Iran’s territory,” the semi-official Tasnim news agency quoted Baghaei as saying.

He said Israel “succeeded in influencing” the diplomatic process and the Israeli attack would not have happened without Washington’s permission.

Iran earlier accused the US of being complicit in Israel’s attacks, but Washington denied the allegation and told Tehran at the United Nations Security Council that it would be “wise” to negotiate over its nuclear program.

The sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks was set to be held on Sunday in Muscat, but it was unclear whether it would go ahead after the Israeli strikes.

Iran denies that its uranium enrichment program is for anything other than civilian purposes, rejecting Israeli allegations that it is secretly developing nuclear weapons.

US President Donald Trump said that he and his team had known the Israeli attacks were coming but they still saw room for an accord.


UN chief urges ‘maximum restraint’ after Israel strikes Iran

Updated 14 June 2025
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UN chief urges ‘maximum restraint’ after Israel strikes Iran

  • Peace and diplomacy must prevail,” Antonio Guterres said on X after Israel’s “preemptive” strikes on Iran and Tehran’s counter-attack

UNITED NATIONS, United States: UN chief Antonio Guterres urged Israel and Iran to “show maximum restraint” after Israel’s wave of air strikes, the secretary-general’s spokesman said in a statement late Thursday.

While broadly condemning “any military escalation in the Middle East,” the statement by Deputy Spokesperson Farhan Haq noted Guterres was “particularly concerned” by Israel’s strikes on nuclear installations amid the ongoing US-Iran negotiations.

“The Secretary-General asks both sides to show maximum restraint, avoiding at all costs a descent into deeper conflict, a situation that the region can hardly afford,” it added.