Hopes rise for revival of grain deal as Putin and Erdogan meet for talks

Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hand with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during their meeting in Sochi. (AFP)
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Updated 04 September 2023
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Hopes rise for revival of grain deal as Putin and Erdogan meet for talks

  • Despite the anticipation surrounding the meeting, no breakthrough agreement appeared to be on the horizon
  • Putin expressed his willingness to re-engage with grain deal once the sanctions on Russian goods were lifted

ANKARA: Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan convened in the picturesque Black Sea resort of Sochi on Monday evening, reigniting hopes of resurrecting the Ukraine grain export deal.

But experts say that more Western engagement is needed to revive the deal, while Turkiye will continue enshrining its role as a facilitator to communicate Russian demands to its partners in the West and to convince the Kremlin to stick with the deal.

The agreement, previously brokered by the UN and Turkiye a year ago, has been in limbo after Russia quit the deal in July, and the talks aimed at its revival yielded mixed results.

Despite the anticipation surrounding the meeting, no breakthrough agreement appeared to be on the horizon. Russia’s willingness to return to the grain deal was contingent on the Western nations lifting restrictions imposed on Russian products, a stipulation that poses a substantial hurdle to progress.

During their Sochi tete-a-tete, Putin expressed his willingness to re-engage with the grain deal once the sanctions on Russian goods were lifted.

Additionally, he proposed an alternative scheme, involving the dispatch of 1 million tons of grain to Turkiye, with the intention of having it processed and subsequently transferred to six African countries.

The implementation of this proposal would be facilitated by financial support from Qatar to avert an impending food crisis in those regions.

However, this alternative plan does not replace the resumption of grain shipments from Ukraine given that the related quantities are much smaller.

According to data sourced from the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul, a significant 57 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports were destined for developing nations, with China being a prominent recipient.

Erdogan’s stance on the matter has been consistent: he seeks to broker a resolution that would allow Ukraine to safely export its grain and secure global food supplies.

Meanwhile, the relationship between Turkiye and Russia continues to deepen, with bilateral trade reaching an impressive $69 billion last year.

Turkiye, a NATO member, has notably refrained from participating in Western sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Simultaneously, Turkiye has been providing support to Ukraine, including sending arms and endorsing Kyiv’s aspirations to join NATO.

According to Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM, Turkiye is continuing to play a role of facilitator regarding the grain deal, but it seems that the position has been quite clear that demands tabled by Russia will ultimately necessitate action by Western countries.

“In that sense, Turkiye has no real ability to fulfill Russia’s demands. What Turkiye can do at best is to listen to Russia’s concerns and to communicate them clearly to its partners in the West,” he told Arab News.

Ulgen thinks that there are limits to what Turkiye can deliver via this high-level political dialogue with Putin.

“After the meeting, we haven’t really seen any scope for fast progress on the revitalization of the deal, given that Russia’s formulated demands were more or less the same as those it has expressed in the past and (which have) not been fulfilled by the Western states,” he said.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres recently dispatched a letter to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, outlining “concrete proposals” aimed at reviving the grain deal. However, these proposals did not meet Russian expectations.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently met Lavrov in Russia regarding the grain deal, and said it was a “process that tries to better understand Russia’s position and requests, and to meet them.”

Ulgen said: “For Turkiye, there is a degree of diplomatic prestige of trying to be a facilitator of the deal, not only internationally but also multilaterally, especially vis-a-vis the United Nations’ secretary-general. This is the main motivation for Turkiye wanting to continue to operate as a facilitator for the deal itself.”

During the joint press conference with Putin on Monday evening, Erdogan said Turkiye arranged a new package of proposals to address Russia’s complaints, and it expects that it would resolve the ongoing Black Sea grain deal crisis.

Erdogan also urged Ukraine to soften its approach to ensure Russia’s return to the grain deal.

According to Ulgen, the statement about Ukraine should not be read as a strategic change in Turkiye’s position, but as part of Erdogan’s balancing act.

He said: “Turkiye does not want to burn in any way its prospect of outreach and dialogue with neither Russia or Ukraine.”

Prof. Emre Ersen, an expert on Turkiye-Russia relations from Marmara University in Istanbul, thinks that it will be very difficult for Erdogan to convince Putin to return to the grain deal under current conditions, since the West is currently not ready to take steps that would fully satisfy Moscow regarding this issue, for instance in terms of easing the sanctions regarding the SWIFT system.

“Nevertheless, it should be noted that Erdogan is one of the few leaders in NATO who can still talk to Putin which means that there is room for progress,” he told Arab News.

For Russia expert Prof. Mitat Celikpala, from Kadir Has University in Istanbul, the prospects for a swift resolution in the grain deal negotiations between Turkiye and Russia appear poor.

“Erdogan’s handling of the grain deal negotiations has not only solidified Turkiye’s international reputation but has also paved the way for further diplomatic endeavors,"  he told Arab News.

“Currently, Ankara is actively engaged in efforts to extend the proposals initially set forth by the United Nations to the Kremlin in Russia.

“This ambitious endeavor seeks to resurrect the stalled grain deal, which holds considerable economic and humanitarian significance.”

Celikpala, however, cautioned: “Yet, as Ankara pushes forward in its diplomatic pursuits, it is acutely aware of the delicate balancing act it must perform.

"Turkiye recognizes that, despite its earnest intentions, it cannot unilaterally steer the entire negotiation process without aligning itself with its Western partners.”

Beyond the confines of Turkiye’s diplomacy, the US is also making strategic moves to influence the situation. Collaborating with Romania and Moldova, the US is actively exploring alternative export routes to expand Ukraine’s grain exports via the Danube River. 

“That route is likely to be completed shortly, which will increase Western leverage on Russia,” Celikpala noted. 

“Ankara tries to implement a project where there will be two supply channels, one from Ukraine and the other one from Russia, which will make Turkiye a hub for grain processing and exports.

“It is not realistic for Western countries to bolster the Kremlin’s hand and increase its economic clout against Ukraine by expanding trade potential.”

In addition to these challenges, Celikpala highlighted the complexities surrounding the possibility of Kyiv exporting its products via ships in the Black Sea, under Turkiye’s monitoring as a littoral country. Such a scenario could, in his view, inadvertently thrust Ankara into a direct clash with Russia.

“Considering the expectations of all relevant parties, it is unlikely that the grain deal will resume soon, but it will act as a carrot to gather the West, Turkiye, and Russia regularly,” Celikpala said.


More Sudanese refugees fleeing as far as Europe, UN refugee agency says

Updated 6 sec ago
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More Sudanese refugees fleeing as far as Europe, UN refugee agency says

  • Olga Sarrado, UN refugee agency spokesperson, told a press briefing in Geneva that some 484 Sudanese had arrived in Europe in January and February, up 38 percent from the same period last year
GENEVA: Over a thousand Sudanese refugees have reached or attempted to reach Europe in early 2025, the United Nations’ refugee agency said on Friday, citing growing desperation in part due to reduced aid in the region.
Some 12 million people have been displaced by the two-year conflict between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces that has fueled what UN officials call the world’s most devastating aid crisis.
While some have recently returned home to Khartoum, millions of others in neighboring countries like Egypt and Chad face tough choices as services for refugees are being cut, including by the United States as part of an aid review.
Olga Sarrado, UN refugee agency spokesperson, told a press briefing in Geneva that some 484 Sudanese had arrived in Europe in January and February, up 38 percent from the same period last year.
Around 937 others were rescued or intercepted at sea and returned to Libya — more than double last year’s figures for the same period, she added.
“As humanitarian aid crumbles and if the war does not abate, many more will have little choice than to join them,” she said.
Migrant deaths hit a record last year, the UN migration agency said, with many perishing on the Mediterranean crossing which is one of the world’s most dangerous.

UN: 36 Israeli strikes in Gaza killed ‘only women and children’

Updated 56 min 58 sec ago
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UN: 36 Israeli strikes in Gaza killed ‘only women and children’

  • UN rights office spokesperson warns the military strikes across Gaza were ‘leaving nowhere safe’
  • Israel has said its troops are seizing ‘large areas’ in Gaza and incorporating them into buffer zones cleared of their inhabitants

GENEVA: The United Nations on Friday said it analysis of 36 Israeli strikes in Gaza showed only women and children were killed and decried the human cost of the war.

The UN rights office also warned that expanding Israeli evacuation orders were resulting in the “forcible transfer” of people into ever-shrinking spaces in the war-ravaged Palestinian territory.

Spokeswoman Ravina Shamdasani warned the military strikes across Gaza were “leaving nowhere safe.”

“Between 18 March and 9 April 2025, there were some 224 incidents of Israeli strikes on residential buildings and tents for internally displaced people,” she told reporters in Geneva.

“In some 36 strikes about which the UN Human Rights Office corroborated information, the fatalities recorded so far were only women and children,” she said.

“Overall, a large percentage of fatalities are children and women, according to information recorded by our Office,” she added.

Shamdasani cited an April 6 strike on a residential building of the Abu Issa family in Deir al Balah, which reportedly killed one girl, four women, and one four-year-old boy.

She highlighted that even the areas where Palestinians were being instructed to go in the expanding number of Israeli “evacuation orders” were also being subjected to attacks.

“Despite Israeli military orders instructing civilians to relocate to the Al Mawasi area of Khan Younis, strikes continued on tents in that area housing displaced people, with at least 23 such incidents recorded by the Office since 18 March,” she said.

Shamdasani referred to a March 31 order by the Israeli military covering all of Rafah, the southernmost governorate in Gaza, followed by a large-scale ground operation.

Israel has said its troops are seizing “large areas” in Gaza and incorporating them into buffer zones cleared of their inhabitants.

“Large areas are being seized and added to Israel’s security zones, leaving Gaza smaller and more isolated,” Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday.

“Let us be clear, these so-called evacuation orders are actually displacement orders, leading to displacement of the population of Gaza into ever shrinking spaces,” Shamdasani said.

“The permanently displacing the civilian population within occupied territories amounts to forcible transfer, which is a grave breach of the Fourth Geneva Convention, and it is a crime against humanity.”


WHO: Medicine critically low due to Gaza aid block

Updated 11 April 2025
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WHO: Medicine critically low due to Gaza aid block

  • Lack of medicine making it hard to keep hospitals even partially operational

GENEVA: Medicine stocks are critically low due to the aid block in Gaza, making it hard to keep hospitals even partially operational, the World Health Organization said on Friday.
“We are critically low in our three warehouses, on antibiotics, IV fluids and blood bags,” WHO official Rik Peeperkorn told reporters in Geneva via video link from Jerusalem.


Yemen ‘not a battleground for settling scores,’ says top government official

Updated 11 April 2025
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Yemen ‘not a battleground for settling scores,’ says top government official

  • Brig. Gen. Tariq Mohammed Abdullah Saleh calls for stronger support for Yemeni forces on the ground to restore balance

DUBAI: Yemen is “not a battleground for settling scores, nor part of any external compromises,” a top government official told Asharq Al-Awsat in an exclusive interview.

Brig. Gen. Tariq Mohammed Abdullah Saleh, a member of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council with vice-presidential rank, further emphasized that diminishing the country to a pawn between powerful nations engaged in political play undermines its sovereignty and regional security.

“The world would be making a mistake by accepting Yemen as a bargaining chip in Iranian negotiations,” said Saleh, who also heads the Political Bureau of the National Resistance. He also emphasized Yemen’s strategic importance to global shipping routes.

Saleh has remained largely out of public view since the US intensified its air campaign against the Iran-aligned Houthis to stop the threat they pose to civilian shipping and military vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

He further warned that keeping Yemen “a base for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard” threatens not only Yemenis but also regional and international interests.

But achieving stability in the conflict-ridden country hinges on supporting a national state rooted in constitutional rule and genuine popular consensus, not on short-term geopolitical deals, Saleh added.

He called for stronger support for Yemeni forces on the ground to restore balance, not as a tool for escalation, but because it is a national imperative to protect civilians and preserve hard-won gains.

He said the Yemeni government was in ongoing coordination with international partners and the Saudi-led coalition backing legitimacy in Yemen to secure further assistance for the national struggle.

Cooperation with regional and international partners to bolster the country’s coast guard, particularly in the Red Sea, a strategic artery for global trade, also continues, the Yemeni official said.

Maritime security cannot be separated from national sovereignty, and defending sea lanes was integral to restoring state authority on land and at sea, Saleh said.

On achieving peace in Yemen, Saleh said: “There is no meaning to any settlement that does not subject the Houthis to the Yemeni constitution and the rule of law.” He discounted any notion that the militia group could be accommodated outside a constitutional framework.

“Peace cannot be granted to a group that rejects the state,” he said. “It is forged when the state regains the capacity to enforce the law and protect its citizens.”

For Saleh, forging a peace agreement with the Houthis — whom he describes as a bloodthirsty group with no commitment to national frameworks and an ideology rooted in an enemy state — was virtually nonexistent.

He accused the Houthis of placing their leadership and institutions tied to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps above Yemen’s state institutions.

“Governance is about managing people’s affairs based on shared frameworks,” Saleh said. “The Houthis do not abide by any of that.”

Saleh has put direct blame on Iran for perpetuating the conflict through its armed proxies, keeping Yemen hostage to violence and rebellion, although Tehran has continually denied its involvement.

Saleh also acknowledged the challenges facing the Presidential Leadership Council, and described the internal disagreements as “natural,” given the complexity of the crisis in Yemen.

“In the end,” he said, “what unites us is greater than any differences.

“Disagreements are natural in any leadership body, particularly in exceptional conditions like Yemen’s,” he said. “But more important is our ability to navigate this diversity and divergence while remaining committed to the national interest.”

 


From Dubai to Osaka to Riyadh: Expos mark decade of global dialogue, says UAE official

Updated 11 April 2025
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From Dubai to Osaka to Riyadh: Expos mark decade of global dialogue, says UAE official

  • UAE, Japan, and Saudi Arabia expos each bring distinct strengths and perspectives, says UAE official
  • Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai will run from April 13 to Oct. 13

DUBAI: The move of expos from Dubai to Osaka and soon to Riyadh presents a “unique opportunity to shape a decade of global engagement” in the Middle East and Asia, according to Shihab Al-Faheem, the UAE pavilion commissioner general.

The sequence of the three locations “offers continuity for themes such as innovation, sustainability, and cultural dialogue,” Al-Faheem said in an interview with Arab News Japan.

“It also strengthens connections between our countries. The UAE, Japan, and Saudi Arabia each bring distinct strengths and perspectives,” he added. “By working together through these global platforms, we can create long-term partnerships that deliver meaningful outcomes for people and the planet.”

Al-Faheem, who is also the UAE’s ambassador to Japan, said the Osaka-Kansai Expo this year carries special meaning for the Gulf country.

The UAE’s first expo journey began in Osaka more than five decades ago, and the commissioner-general explained that returning to Japan was “an opportunity to continue engaging with the world and to contribute to shaping a future grounded in cooperation and collective progress.”

As the baton was passed from Dubai Expo 2020 to Osaka, Al-Faheem said the most important insight the UAE valued was that of creating experiences that are immersive, inclusive and people focused.

“We also learned that strong logistical planning and a flexible, responsive approach are essential to hosting a successful expo,” he told Arab News Japan. “We believe these lessons will resonate with Japan as it welcomes the world in 2025.”

When it comes to the UAE’s participation in Osaka this year, the country’s pavilion will continue its “immersive and multi-sensory journey” giving visitors a chance to “engage on an emotional and intellectual level.”

The UAE Pavilion’s theme is “Earth to Ether,” which expresses the Gulf country’s journey from a heritage rooted in the land to a future defined by innovation.

With sustainability and technology in mind, Al-Faheem said the pavilion uses eco-conscious materials such as Datecrete and palm-based architectural elements to reflect environmental values.

“The content of the pavilion also showcases our leadership in clean energy, smart healthcare, and space technologies,” the ambassador said.

The architectural design draws inspiration from traditional Emirati structures and uses materials from the date palm. Inside the pavilion, visitors will be able to experience stories that reflect the UAE’s values and vision for the future.

Given that the UAE and Japan have both hosted World Expos, Al-Faheem said that this has allowed the two countries to strengthen “an already deep and multifaceted relationship. These global events provide a powerful platform to showcase shared values and to develop partnerships across sectors such as energy, education, culture, and technology.”

The UAE Pavilion at Expo 2025 is expected to honor the relationship between the two countries and create new opportunities for joint initiatives.

Al-Faheem said he hopes that through the upcoming expo, the UAE will be able to deepen people-to-people ties with Japan and to create cultural and educational exchanges.

Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai will run from April 13 to Oct. 13, with an official opening ceremony on April 12.

This article also appears on Arab News Japan