ISLAMABAD: The Pakistani central bank on Monday announced keeping its key interest rate unchanged at 22 percent, in line with market expectations.
The announcement comes ahead of a visit by an International Monetary Fund (IMF) team early next month that will review Pakistan’s progress on targets for a $3 billion facility approved in July this year to keep the South Asian economy afloat.
The decision was made at a meeting of the monetary policy committee of the central bank that noted that headline inflation rose in September 2023, as expected, but it was projected to decline in October and then maintain a downward trajectory.
While the recent volatility in global oil prices and increase in gas tariffs from Nov posed some risks, the committee highlighted some offsetting factors, including targeted fiscal consolidation in first quarter of this fiscal year; improvement in availability of key commodities, and the alignment of interbank and open market exchange rates.
“In the light of these developments, the MPC emphasized on continuing with the tight monetary policy stance,” the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said in a statement.
“The MPC reiterated its earlier view that the real policy rate is significantly positive on 12-month forward-looking basis and is appropriate to bring inflation down to the medium-term target of 5–7 percent by end-FY25.”
The committee noted that continued fiscal prudence and meeting the targeted fiscal consolidation was imperative for keeping inflation on the downward trajectory.
The central bank previously said it expected inflation to ease this fiscal year, which began on July 1, to average around 20-22 percent, down from 29.2 percent in the last fiscal year.
Inflation in Pakistan rose sharply to 31.4 percent in September on the back of a record fuel price hike, but the government has since slashed the prices.
Inflation figures for the month of October are due later this week.
The IMF forecasts inflation at 25.9 percent this year, and has advocated mildly positive rates, but Pakistani central bank chief Jameel Ahmad has said previously that the global lender had not stated that it expected rate hikes, only for the policy stance to remain aggressive.
Ahmad also said the SBP had met key targets set by the IMF ahead of the November visit. It kept the key interest rate unchanged in its previous two meetings in July and September, having earlier raised it by 12.25 percentage points to 22 percent in a series of hikes since April last year.
Pakistan’s currency, which declined sharply in August, has also significantly recovered against the US dollar, following a crackdown on black market trading that has helped tame inflation.
A successful IMF review remains critical for cash-strapped Pakistan, which narrowly escaped a default on its debt obligations earlier this year due to the last-gasp $3 billion fresh deal that replaced an incomplete and stalled program.