Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

Iraqis carry placards and wave the Palestinian flag during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)
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Updated 31 October 2023
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Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

  • American troops in Iraq and Syria have already come under militia attack, prompting retaliation
  • PM Al-Sudani has condemned attacks, but analysts question his ability to rein in the militias

IRBIL, IRAQI KURDISTAN: With its coffers swelled by high oil prices and its politicians laying enmities aside, Iraq looked all set to enjoy a period of stability not seen in decades. However, the Israel-Hamas war that erupted in early October could undo this modest progress, especially if it inflames the sensitive regional situation and escalates into a wider conflict.

Various Iran-backed militias across the Middle East have threatened to attack American interests in the region if Washington becomes openly involved in Israel’s ground war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These militias have already attacked bases hosting American troops in Iraq and Syria with rockets and drones in recent days.

In an analysis for the Arab Center Washington DC, Rend Al-Rahim, a former Iraqi ambassador to the US, wrote: “In the space of just over two weeks, Israel’s war on Gaza has upended Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s year-long careful balancing of Iraq’s foreign relations and his efforts to maintain stability in Iraq.”

The US has ordered the departure of its “non-emergency” personnel from Iraq and warned Americans not to travel to the country due to the elevated threat level. The UK has also temporarily withdrawn staff from its embassy in Baghdad and advised Britons against all travel to Iraq, aside from strictly essential trips to Iraqi Kurdistan.




US Navy’s F/A-18 Super Hornets, attached Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 8, prepare for flight operations on the flight deck of the world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN) 78 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, on October 13, 2023. (AFP)

An estimated 2,500 US troops are at present based in Iraq under authorization from Baghdad, advising and training Iraqi and Kurdish forces in their ongoing fight against Daesh. Another 900 are deployed in northeast Syria, partnered with local Kurdish-led forces in their own fight against remnants of the extremist group.

Since Oct. 17, US troops have come under rocket and drone attack at Iraq’s western Ain Al-Asad airbase, Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Harir airfield, and southern Syria’s Al-Tanf garrison. Twenty-one US personnel suffered “minor injuries,” but were able to promptly resume duties, while one civilian contractor died after suffering a cardiac incident during one of these attacks.

On Thursday, the US launched “precision self-defense strikes” against two facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its local affiliates. Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, described the strikes as a response to “a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups.”

These groups, including Kataib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, and others, have threatened to step up attacks if Israel launches a major ground war against Hamas in Gaza, increasing the risk of US troops being severely injured or even killed and raising the possibility of the US military retaliating more forcefully. Such an escalation could potentially ignite an uncontrollable conflagration that could plunge Iraq back into chaos and war.

Al-Sudani has condemned the recent attacks on US troops in Iraq, branding them “unacceptable,” and has ordered state security forces to pursue the perpetrators.




An Iraqi boy carries a picture of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)

Many of the Iran-backed militias in Iraq are part of the country’s state-sanctioned paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, some of whose leaders are in Al-Sudani’s government. Despite this, Al-Sudani has little to no control over these armed groups.

“Reports are that he (Al-Sudani) warned the pro-Iran groups that if they get directly involved in Gaza, the US and Israel would retaliate against them in Iraq,” Joel Wing, author of the blog, Musings on Iraq, told Arab News. “Other than that, he is powerless to constrain them.”

Indeed, shortly after the Israel-Hamas war began, Iraqi politician Hadi Al-Amiri, leader of the Iran-linked Badr Organization, which constitutes a large part of the PMF, said: “If they (the US) intervene, we would intervene ... we will consider all American targets legitimate.”




Iraqi forces and Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) advance towards the city of Al-Qaim, in western Anbar province, on the Syrian border as they fight against remnant pockets of Daesh on November 1, 2017. (AFP)

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, similarly believes Al-Sudani’s government would “largely be a bystander” in the event of a significant escalation, with Tehran and Washington “driving events on the ground” rather than Baghdad.

“Iraq’s diplomatic maneuvering is likely to remain very critical of Israel and even the US at times, though it doesn’t yet seem like it’ll push US troops to leave the country,” Bohl told Arab News.

INNUMBERS

  • 42m Population of Iraq.
  • 11m Size of labor force.
  • 14.19% Total unemployment rate.
  • 27.2% Youth unemployment rate.
  • 27% Public debt as a percent of GDP.

One powerful Shiite figure and militia leader who has repeatedly clashed with pro-Iran factions in Iraq is Muqtada Al-Sadr, who has already brought his followers out in force to condemn Israel. Analysts believe he may seek to leverage the present crisis to reenter politics and challenge his Iran-backed rivals.

Wing says Al-Sadr, like other political leaders in Iraq, is “hoping to exploit” the crisis in Gaza for his own ends. Indeed, the street protests he has organized in recent days potentially mark the beginning of a campaign ahead of elections in December.

Bohl agrees it seems likely that Al-Sadr will use the crisis for “at least marginal political gain.” However, he is unsure whether the issue will bring Al-Sadr back into politics since the “factors that drove him out” in the first place have nothing to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“On the other hand, if there is a major regional escalation that involves Iraq, Al-Sadr could be one of the Shiite politicians Iraq would look to for leadership as it accounted for how the country was pulled into the conflict to start with,” Bohl said.




Members of Iraq’s Shiite Muslim Al-Nujaba movement wave the Palestinian flag during a rally in Baghdad on October 8, 2023, to express their support of the “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” which was launched by Hamas militants the previous day against Israel from the Gaza Strip. (AFP)

The risk of a broader conflict is considerable. Wing says some Iraqi groups are already discussing “escalating their ongoing attacks” if a ground war begins in Gaza. He predicts such an escalation would “probably mean rocket and drone strikes on the US embassy” in Baghdad.

“I’ve read that factions are split about whether to get directly involved in the conflict. And if they did, it would be with Hezbollah in Lebanon and not with Hamas in Gaza,” he said.

Bohl believes that while it remains a “potent possibility” that an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza could result in significant instability in Iraq, “there are different drivers to consider.”

“If such militias escalate against the US too much, they could trigger a regional US reaction to Iran and its proxies that would not be in Iran’s interest,” he said.

“I largely expect they’ll engage in harassment and one-off attacks rather than mass attacks designed to cause significant casualties.”




Syrians wave flags and lift a placard depicting (L to R) Lebanon’s Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, Yemen’s Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a rally marking the yearly Al-Quds (Jerusalem) day, at the Al-Nayrab camp for Palestinian refugees east of Syria’s northern city of Aleppo, on May 7, 2021. (AFP)

Both analysts believe the latest attacks are intended to demonstrate the capabilities of these militias to strike US forces rather than to actually inflict casualties on them.

Wing summed up the current attacks as “completely symbolic,” explaining that if these militias wanted to launch “real assaults to do damage,” they would “use dozens of rockets and drones.”

“The ongoing attacks are just shooting a few rockets and using one, two drones,” he said. “If they caused some serious US casualties, Washington would retaliate, and I don’t think the Iraqi factions want that.”

For Bohl, these are “harassing attacks on US targets designed to gain political legitimacy and signal to the US and Israel the risks of escalation by their side.”




Syrian air defense reportedly intercepting an Israeli missile in the sky over the Syrian capital Damascus on February 24, 2020. (AFP)

In February 2021, a militia rocket attack targeting the American base in Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Irbil International Airport killed a civilian contractor. The US retaliated against Iran-backed militias in Syria instead of Iraq, likely to avoid destabilizing the situation in Iraq through tit-for-tat exchanges of fire.

It is unclear whether that was the goal of Thursday’s retaliatory strikes in Syria or if the US would consider retaliation within Iraq in the future.

“I think it completely depends upon the situation, such as where the attack takes place and the nature of the US casualties,” Wing said. “The bigger the death toll of US soldiers, the bigger Washington’s response will be.”

He added: “If a lot of Americans get killed, you could expect US retaliatory strikes across Syria and Iraq. If one or two get killed, the US would probably hit an ammo dump of some Iraqi faction.”




An Iraqi supporter of the Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) forces walks past a poster depicting late Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (R) and Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani, in the capital Baghdad on December 30, 2020, ahead of the first anniversary of their killing in a US drone strike. (AFP)

Bohl also believes future US retaliatory strikes will “remain proportional and focused on the origins of the attacks” rather than “a comprehensive campaign” targeting Iran’s proxies across the region.

“But this would change if the US believed Iran was preparing for a region-wide escalation, at which point the US would likely try to prevent such an escalation with a more thorough pre-emptive campaign.”

Looking to the future, Al-Rahim, the former Iraqi diplomat and analyst, said: “What is certain is that the renewed strength of hardliners in Iraq will translate into increased Iranian interference in the country’s internal affairs and foreign policy choices.”

She expects Tehran’s regional calculations to “determine the scope and modality of belligerence by its Iraqi allies, leading to greater pressure” on Al-Sudani and his government.

 


Israeli forces fatally shoot 20-year-old Palestinian man near Jenin

Updated 14 July 2025
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Israeli forces fatally shoot 20-year-old Palestinian man near Jenin

  • Youssef Walid Sheikh Ibrahim killed close to military checkpoint
  • 42 Palestinians have been killed since Israel launched offensive in town

LONDON: A Palestinian man was shot dead by Israeli forces on Monday evening near the town of Ya’abd in Jenin governorate, north of the occupied West Bank.

The Ministry of Health reported that Youssef Walid Sheikh Ibrahim, 20, from the town of Kafr Ra’i, died after being shot by Israeli forces near a military checkpoint close to the illegal settlement of Mevo Dotan, and his body was detained.

A total of 42 Palestinians have been killed since Israeli forces launched a military campaign in Jenin town and its refugee camp in January, according to the WAFA news agency.

Since October 2023, Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank have killed nearly 1,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians.

On Sunday, hundreds of Palestinians from Al-Mazraa Al-Sharqiya attended the funeral of Saif Al-Din Kamil Abdul Karim Musalat, 20, and Mohammed Rizq Hussein Al-Shalabi, 23, who were killed by Israeli settlers last week.

About 1 million Israelis live in illegal settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem in violation of international law. Their attacks against Palestinians have escalated since 2023, with 820 recorded by rights groups in the first half of this year.


Iraq plans to build 10 dams to harvest desert rains, as drought displaces 10,000 families in Dhi Qar

Updated 14 July 2025
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Iraq plans to build 10 dams to harvest desert rains, as drought displaces 10,000 families in Dhi Qar

  • As water levels in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers dwindle, the aim is to store rainwater and floodwater to help boost strategic reserves
  • Dhi Qar Governorate is experiencing one of its worst summers, with severe water shortages and drought forcing people in rural areas to migrate

LONDON: Iraq has announced plans to build 10 dams to harvest water in desert areas, as part of an urgent strategy to boost water security amid dwindling supplies.

The effects of climate change and the construction of dams in neighboring countries, including Turkiye, have significantly affected water levels of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which are vital lifelines for Iraqis.

The Iraqi minister of water resources, Awn Dhiab Abdullah, said on Monday that the dams would store floodwater and rainwater in the desert to build up strategic reserves, especially in provinces lacking in surface-water resources.

“The shortage the country is experiencing is the most dangerous in its history, forcing 12 provinces to rely exclusively on groundwater to cover their various needs,” he said.

Dhi Qar, which is in southern Iraq, has experienced one of its worst summers on record, with severe water shortages and drought forcing nearly 10,000 families in rural areas to abandon their homes and migrate to urban areas.

Abdullah said that more than half of Iraq’s desert region relies on groundwater supplies. He emphasized the importance of water-harvesting projects and the need to reduce dependence on traditional sources.


Iraqis face difficult return from Syria camp for Daesh families

Updated 14 July 2025
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Iraqis face difficult return from Syria camp for Daesh families

MOSUL: After years in a Syrian detention camp, Ibrahim Darwish was relieved to be allowed to return home to Iraq, but his joy was quickly punctured by the harsh reality that he had to disown his sons accused of being militants.

“All I wanted was to return to Iraq,” the 64-year-old said of his time in the Kurdish-controlled Al-Hol camp, where family members of suspected Daesh fighters are held in prison-like conditions alongside refugees and displaced people.

But back home in Iraq, “I had to disown my sons. My house is gone,” he said. “I am back to square one.”

Thousands of Iraqi returnees from the camp have faced major obstacles reintegrating into their communities, their perceived affiliation with Daesh casting a dark shadow over their prospects.

They described armed groups and local authorities in some areas pressuring returnees to cut ties with relatives suspected of Daesh links as a precondition for going home or obtaining essential documents.

A lawyer for many returnees equated the pledges of disownment to denunciations, “essentially complaints by one family member against another.”

He also warned of a widespread misconception among returnees that they must comply in order to obtain identity cards and other government papers.

But a senior Iraqi official insisted that the authorities supported reintegration, including when it came to the issuance of documents.

Requesting “disownment statements has become illegal, and anyone who asks for it should be reported,” the official said.

Darwish said he was allowed to leave Al-Hol after receiving Iraqi security clearance and support from his tribal leader.

Back in Iraq, he spent the first several months at Al-Jadaa camp, presented by the authorities as a “rehabilitation” center where returnees wait for further permission to return home.

There, “we felt the most welcome,” Darwish said.

But when it was time to go home to Salaheddin province, Darwish said local authorities told him he first had to disown his sons, who are locked away on suspicion of joining Daesh — a charge he denies.

Reluctantly, he complied.

Otherwise, “how was I going to farm my land and make ends meet?” he said.

In the northern city of Mosul, one woman in her thirties said she was afraid to return to her hometown in Salaheddin, where her father was arrested upon his arrival and later passed away in prison.

She is currently squatting with her sister and children in a dilapidated house, living in fear of eviction.

When the family first returned to Iraq, she said, people “looked at us differently, just because we came from Al-Hol.”

Now her concern is obtaining new identity cards, which are essential for accessing healthcare, education and employment, and she fears she will have to disown her husband to do so.

The authorities, she said, “did well” by bringing them back from Al-Hol, where many speak of increased violence, but they must now solve the issue of reintegration.

“We need them to support us so we can stand on our feet,” she added.

Thanassis Cambanis, director of New York-based Century International, said the returnees “face a murky future,” especially since some of those tarred as Daesh families are denied documentation.

“At a minimum, collective punishment of the Daesh families is an injustice and a moral error,” Cambanis warned.

“At a maximum, Iraq’s policy creates a ripe pool of potential recruits for violent sectarian extremists.”

While many countries refuse to repatriate their nationals from Al-Hol, Baghdad has so far brought back around 17,000 people, mostly women and children.

Local and international organizations facilitated reintegration. The Global Community Engagement and Resilience Fund, a Geneva-registered organization that focuses on preventing extremism, supports several centers that have so far assisted around 6,000 returnees.

According to the fund’s Kevin Osborne, the centers provide services such as psychosocial support and vocational training.

But the growing number of returnees requires “expanded support to adequately prepare communities and enable smooth, sustainable reintegration,” Osborne said.

Noran Mahmood, of the GCREF-supported Iraqi Institution for Development, said many returnees fear “society’s refusal” to welcome them, as if having spent time in Al-Hol is a “disgrace.”

Her organization in Mosul provides counselling for the many returnees who suffer from depression, insomnia and anxiety.

Rahaf, 24, is one of the many women receiving help after years of accumulated trauma.

With the organization’s assistance, she achieved her long-held dream of furthering her education, enrolling in middle school.

“I feel successful,” she said. “I want to become a lawyer or a teacher.”


Egypt says Israel-EU agreement has not increased aid to Gaza

Palestinians react as they ask for food from a charity kitchen, amid a hunger crisis, in Gaza City, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
Updated 14 July 2025
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Egypt says Israel-EU agreement has not increased aid to Gaza

  • “There is a real catastrophe happening in Gaza resulting from the continuation of the Israeli siege,” Safadi said
  • Israel’s continued military operations and blockade have left the entire population of 2.3 million people in Gaza facing acute food insecurity

BRUSSELS: Egypt’s foreign minister said on Monday that the flow of aid into Gaza has not increased despite an agreement last week between Israel and the European Union that should have had that result.
“Nothing has changed (on the ground),” Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty told reporters ahead of the EU-Middle East meeting in Brussels on Monday.
The EU’s top diplomat said on Thursday that the bloc and Israel agreed to improve Gaza’s humanitarian situation, including increasing the number of aid trucks and opening crossing points and aid routes.
Asked what steps Israel has taken, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar referred to an understanding with the EU but did not provide details on implementation.
Asked if there were improvements after the agreement, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told reporters that the situation in Gaza remains “catastrophic.”
“There is a real catastrophe happening in Gaza resulting from the continuation of the Israeli siege,” he said.
Safadi said Israel allowed the entry of 40 to 50 trucks days ago from Jordan but that was “far from being sufficient” for the besieged enclave.
EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said ahead of Monday’s meeting that there have been some signs of progress on Gaza aid but not enough improvement on the ground.
Israel’s continued military operations and blockade have left the entire population of 2.3 million people in Gaza facing acute food insecurity, with nearly half a million at risk of famine by the end of September, a joint United Nations report said last month.


Lebanese army shuts illegal crossings along border with Syria

Updated 14 July 2025
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Lebanese army shuts illegal crossings along border with Syria

  • The routes had become havens for human trafficking, smuggling drugs, weapons
  • Army using mounds of earth, rocks to stop vehicles, source says

BEIRUT: A patrol from the Lebanese army and the Intelligence Directorate on Monday closed several smuggling routes in Masharih Al-Qaa, a region between Lebanon and Syria that lacks clearly defined borders.

A Lebanese military source said the area was used for smuggling goods, fuel and people and that the army head “erected dirt mounds and rocks to prevent the passage of vehicles and motorcycles.”

The border between Lebanon and the Syrian Arab Republic stretches about 375 km and runs through towns, villages and mountainous regions. The Lebanese government estimates there to be 136 illegal crossing points, of which more than half are in the Bekaa region.

A shortage of personnel and surveillance equipment means many of these areas are vulnerable to criminal activity, including human trafficking and the smuggling of weapons, drugs and other goods.

These open borders have served the interests of Hezbollah and Palestinian factions allied with Syria. Over the years, Hezbollah has established its own border crossings and helped protect others used by smugglers from its support base.

Palestinian factions also established their border posts, which served as channels for weapons and people. Dismantling them was the first task undertaken by the Lebanese army in implementing the policy of confining weapons to the hands of the state.

The army on Sunday denied claims made on social media that armed men had entered Lebanon from Syria via the eastern mountain range and that it had withdrawn from border areas in the Bekaa.

Military units “continue to carry out their routine missions to control the Lebanese-Syrian border, while also monitoring the internal security situation to prevent any breach,” it said.

It also appealed for “accuracy in reporting news related to the army and the security situation, to act responsibly and to refrain from spreading rumors that lead to tension among citizens.”

Since the regime change in Syria, several meetings between the two countries have been held to improve coordination on border security.

On March 28, Lebanese Defense Minister Michel Menassa and his Syrian counterpart, Murhaf Abu Qasra, signed an agreement in Jeddah regarding border demarcation and the strengthening of security coordination. This came in the wake of violent clashes between the Syrian army and groups affiliated with Hezbollah along the border earlier in the month.

The issue of undefined borders dates back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916, when France was granted the mandate over the two countries and drew the borders in a vague and incomplete manner. Some parts were demarcated in 1934, but large areas remained undefined. The Syrian regime later refused to officially recognize Lebanon as an independent state and considered it part of “Greater Syria.”

Kuwait expresses solidarity

On Monday, the Kuwaiti First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior Sheikh Fahad Yousef Saud Al-Sabah met Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

He said that Lebanon “will remain Lebanon” and that the “arms issue will be resolved soon.”

He also affirmed Kuwait’s support for Lebanon “in all areas, especially security cooperation” and called for activating the work of the Kuwaiti-Lebanese Higher Joint Committee to explore avenues for assisting Lebanon.

The president’s media office said Aoun told the Kuwaiti minister of the “importance of coordination to address common challenges, particularly in terms of security cooperation to combat drug smuggling and anything that threatens security in both countries.”