Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

Iraqis carry placards and wave the Palestinian flag during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)
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Updated 31 October 2023
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Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

  • American troops in Iraq and Syria have already come under militia attack, prompting retaliation
  • PM Al-Sudani has condemned attacks, but analysts question his ability to rein in the militias

IRBIL, IRAQI KURDISTAN: With its coffers swelled by high oil prices and its politicians laying enmities aside, Iraq looked all set to enjoy a period of stability not seen in decades. However, the Israel-Hamas war that erupted in early October could undo this modest progress, especially if it inflames the sensitive regional situation and escalates into a wider conflict.

Various Iran-backed militias across the Middle East have threatened to attack American interests in the region if Washington becomes openly involved in Israel’s ground war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These militias have already attacked bases hosting American troops in Iraq and Syria with rockets and drones in recent days.

In an analysis for the Arab Center Washington DC, Rend Al-Rahim, a former Iraqi ambassador to the US, wrote: “In the space of just over two weeks, Israel’s war on Gaza has upended Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s year-long careful balancing of Iraq’s foreign relations and his efforts to maintain stability in Iraq.”

The US has ordered the departure of its “non-emergency” personnel from Iraq and warned Americans not to travel to the country due to the elevated threat level. The UK has also temporarily withdrawn staff from its embassy in Baghdad and advised Britons against all travel to Iraq, aside from strictly essential trips to Iraqi Kurdistan.




US Navy’s F/A-18 Super Hornets, attached Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 8, prepare for flight operations on the flight deck of the world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN) 78 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, on October 13, 2023. (AFP)

An estimated 2,500 US troops are at present based in Iraq under authorization from Baghdad, advising and training Iraqi and Kurdish forces in their ongoing fight against Daesh. Another 900 are deployed in northeast Syria, partnered with local Kurdish-led forces in their own fight against remnants of the extremist group.

Since Oct. 17, US troops have come under rocket and drone attack at Iraq’s western Ain Al-Asad airbase, Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Harir airfield, and southern Syria’s Al-Tanf garrison. Twenty-one US personnel suffered “minor injuries,” but were able to promptly resume duties, while one civilian contractor died after suffering a cardiac incident during one of these attacks.

On Thursday, the US launched “precision self-defense strikes” against two facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its local affiliates. Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, described the strikes as a response to “a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups.”

These groups, including Kataib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, and others, have threatened to step up attacks if Israel launches a major ground war against Hamas in Gaza, increasing the risk of US troops being severely injured or even killed and raising the possibility of the US military retaliating more forcefully. Such an escalation could potentially ignite an uncontrollable conflagration that could plunge Iraq back into chaos and war.

Al-Sudani has condemned the recent attacks on US troops in Iraq, branding them “unacceptable,” and has ordered state security forces to pursue the perpetrators.




An Iraqi boy carries a picture of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)

Many of the Iran-backed militias in Iraq are part of the country’s state-sanctioned paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, some of whose leaders are in Al-Sudani’s government. Despite this, Al-Sudani has little to no control over these armed groups.

“Reports are that he (Al-Sudani) warned the pro-Iran groups that if they get directly involved in Gaza, the US and Israel would retaliate against them in Iraq,” Joel Wing, author of the blog, Musings on Iraq, told Arab News. “Other than that, he is powerless to constrain them.”

Indeed, shortly after the Israel-Hamas war began, Iraqi politician Hadi Al-Amiri, leader of the Iran-linked Badr Organization, which constitutes a large part of the PMF, said: “If they (the US) intervene, we would intervene ... we will consider all American targets legitimate.”




Iraqi forces and Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) advance towards the city of Al-Qaim, in western Anbar province, on the Syrian border as they fight against remnant pockets of Daesh on November 1, 2017. (AFP)

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, similarly believes Al-Sudani’s government would “largely be a bystander” in the event of a significant escalation, with Tehran and Washington “driving events on the ground” rather than Baghdad.

“Iraq’s diplomatic maneuvering is likely to remain very critical of Israel and even the US at times, though it doesn’t yet seem like it’ll push US troops to leave the country,” Bohl told Arab News.

INNUMBERS

  • 42m Population of Iraq.
  • 11m Size of labor force.
  • 14.19% Total unemployment rate.
  • 27.2% Youth unemployment rate.
  • 27% Public debt as a percent of GDP.

One powerful Shiite figure and militia leader who has repeatedly clashed with pro-Iran factions in Iraq is Muqtada Al-Sadr, who has already brought his followers out in force to condemn Israel. Analysts believe he may seek to leverage the present crisis to reenter politics and challenge his Iran-backed rivals.

Wing says Al-Sadr, like other political leaders in Iraq, is “hoping to exploit” the crisis in Gaza for his own ends. Indeed, the street protests he has organized in recent days potentially mark the beginning of a campaign ahead of elections in December.

Bohl agrees it seems likely that Al-Sadr will use the crisis for “at least marginal political gain.” However, he is unsure whether the issue will bring Al-Sadr back into politics since the “factors that drove him out” in the first place have nothing to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“On the other hand, if there is a major regional escalation that involves Iraq, Al-Sadr could be one of the Shiite politicians Iraq would look to for leadership as it accounted for how the country was pulled into the conflict to start with,” Bohl said.




Members of Iraq’s Shiite Muslim Al-Nujaba movement wave the Palestinian flag during a rally in Baghdad on October 8, 2023, to express their support of the “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” which was launched by Hamas militants the previous day against Israel from the Gaza Strip. (AFP)

The risk of a broader conflict is considerable. Wing says some Iraqi groups are already discussing “escalating their ongoing attacks” if a ground war begins in Gaza. He predicts such an escalation would “probably mean rocket and drone strikes on the US embassy” in Baghdad.

“I’ve read that factions are split about whether to get directly involved in the conflict. And if they did, it would be with Hezbollah in Lebanon and not with Hamas in Gaza,” he said.

Bohl believes that while it remains a “potent possibility” that an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza could result in significant instability in Iraq, “there are different drivers to consider.”

“If such militias escalate against the US too much, they could trigger a regional US reaction to Iran and its proxies that would not be in Iran’s interest,” he said.

“I largely expect they’ll engage in harassment and one-off attacks rather than mass attacks designed to cause significant casualties.”




Syrians wave flags and lift a placard depicting (L to R) Lebanon’s Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, Yemen’s Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a rally marking the yearly Al-Quds (Jerusalem) day, at the Al-Nayrab camp for Palestinian refugees east of Syria’s northern city of Aleppo, on May 7, 2021. (AFP)

Both analysts believe the latest attacks are intended to demonstrate the capabilities of these militias to strike US forces rather than to actually inflict casualties on them.

Wing summed up the current attacks as “completely symbolic,” explaining that if these militias wanted to launch “real assaults to do damage,” they would “use dozens of rockets and drones.”

“The ongoing attacks are just shooting a few rockets and using one, two drones,” he said. “If they caused some serious US casualties, Washington would retaliate, and I don’t think the Iraqi factions want that.”

For Bohl, these are “harassing attacks on US targets designed to gain political legitimacy and signal to the US and Israel the risks of escalation by their side.”




Syrian air defense reportedly intercepting an Israeli missile in the sky over the Syrian capital Damascus on February 24, 2020. (AFP)

In February 2021, a militia rocket attack targeting the American base in Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Irbil International Airport killed a civilian contractor. The US retaliated against Iran-backed militias in Syria instead of Iraq, likely to avoid destabilizing the situation in Iraq through tit-for-tat exchanges of fire.

It is unclear whether that was the goal of Thursday’s retaliatory strikes in Syria or if the US would consider retaliation within Iraq in the future.

“I think it completely depends upon the situation, such as where the attack takes place and the nature of the US casualties,” Wing said. “The bigger the death toll of US soldiers, the bigger Washington’s response will be.”

He added: “If a lot of Americans get killed, you could expect US retaliatory strikes across Syria and Iraq. If one or two get killed, the US would probably hit an ammo dump of some Iraqi faction.”




An Iraqi supporter of the Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) forces walks past a poster depicting late Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (R) and Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani, in the capital Baghdad on December 30, 2020, ahead of the first anniversary of their killing in a US drone strike. (AFP)

Bohl also believes future US retaliatory strikes will “remain proportional and focused on the origins of the attacks” rather than “a comprehensive campaign” targeting Iran’s proxies across the region.

“But this would change if the US believed Iran was preparing for a region-wide escalation, at which point the US would likely try to prevent such an escalation with a more thorough pre-emptive campaign.”

Looking to the future, Al-Rahim, the former Iraqi diplomat and analyst, said: “What is certain is that the renewed strength of hardliners in Iraq will translate into increased Iranian interference in the country’s internal affairs and foreign policy choices.”

She expects Tehran’s regional calculations to “determine the scope and modality of belligerence by its Iraqi allies, leading to greater pressure” on Al-Sudani and his government.

 


Syria’s president to visit Turkiye and UAE next week

Updated 5 sec ago
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Syria’s president to visit Turkiye and UAE next week

  • Sharaa and other members of the new Syrian leadership have been working to strengthen ties with both Arab and Western leaders following the fall of Bashar Assad in a lightning offensive in December, led by Sharaa’s group, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham

BEIRUT: Syria’s President Ahmed Al-Sharaa will make his first visit to the United Arab Emirates and is also scheduled to visit Turkiye next week, the Syrian foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday, as he continues to garner support for the new administration.
Sharaa, who previously visited Turkiye in February, will make the UAE his second Gulf destination after traveling to
Saudi Arabia that same month on his first foreign trip since assuming the presidency in January.
He and other members of the new Syrian leadership have been working to strengthen ties with both Arab and Western leaders following the fall of Bashar Assad in a lightning offensive in December, led by Sharaa’s Sunni Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham.
Sharaa and his officials have also called for a full lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Syria is in desperate need of sanctions relief to kick start an economy collapsed by nearly 14 years of war, during which the United States, the UK and Europe placed tough sanctions on people, businesses and whole sectors of Syria’s economy in a bid to squeeze now-ousted leader Assad.

 


Moroccans protest Israel’s offensive in Gaza and take aim at Trump

Updated 10 min 10 sec ago
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Moroccans protest Israel’s offensive in Gaza and take aim at Trump

  • Moroccan authorities tolerate most protests, but have arrested some activists who have rallied in front of businesses or foreign embassies or implicated the monarchy in their complaints
  • More than 50,000 Palestinians have been killed as part of Israel’s offensive, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t say whether those killed are civilians or combatants

RABAT, Morocco: Tens of thousands of Moroccans on Sunday protested Israel’s latest offensive in Gaza, putting fury toward US President Donald Trump near the center of their grievances.
In the largest protest Morocco has seen in months, demonstrators denounced Israel, the United States and their own government. Some stepped on Israeli flags, held banners showing slain Hamas leaders and waved posters juxtaposing Trump alongside displaced Palestinians fleeing their homes.
Organizers condemned Israel’s ongoing military operation in Gaza. Hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since Israel renewed air and ground strikes last month, aimed at pressuring Hamas to release remaining hostages.

Women lift a banner during a national march in support of Palestinians and against Morocco's normalisation of ties with Israel, in the capital Rabat on April 6, 2025. (AFP)

Such protests have erupted across the Middle East and North Africa, where leaders typically worry about demonstrations undermining domestic stability. Pro-Palestinian rallies were also staged this weekend in the capitals of Tunisia and Yemen as well as in Morocco’s most populous city Casablanca.
In countries that have historically aligned with the US, anti-Trump backlash has emerged as a theme. Demonstrators in Rabat on Sunday condemned his proposal to displace millions of Palestinians to make way for the redevelopment of Gaza. as well as the US efforts to pursue pro-Palestinian activists.
Still, many Moroccans said they saw Trump’s policies as mostly consistent with his predecessor, Joe Biden’s.
“(Trump) has made the war worse,” said Mohammed Toussi, who traveled from Casablanca with his family to protest.
“Biden hid some things but Trump has shown it all,” he added, likening their positions but not their messaging.
Protesters, Toussi said, remain angry about Morocco’s 2020 decision to normalize ties with Israel.
Abdelhak El Arabi, an adviser to Morocco’s former Islamist prime minister, said the reasons Moroccans were protesting had grown throughout the war. He predicted popular anger would continue until the war ends.
“It’s not a war, Gaza is getting erased from the earth,” the 62-year-old Tamesna resident said.
Demonstrations have included a range of groups, including the Islamist association al Adl Wal Ihsan. Moroccan authorities tolerate most protests, but have arrested some activists who have rallied in front of businesses or foreign embassies or implicated the monarchy in their complaints.
The war began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 hostages. Most have since been released in ceasefire agreements and other deals. More than 50,000 Palestinians have been killed as part of Israel’s offensive, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which doesn’t say whether those killed are civilians or combatants. The war has left most of Gaza in ruins, and at its height displaced around 90 percent of the population.

 


Sudan activists sound alarm on ‘catastrophic’ situation in besieged Darfur city

Updated 06 April 2025
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Sudan activists sound alarm on ‘catastrophic’ situation in besieged Darfur city

  • According to UN estimates, around two million people face extreme food insecurity in North Darfur state, with 320,000 already suffering famine conditions

KHARTOUM: Civilians trapped in Sudan’s El-Fasher city are facing “catastrophic” conditions, activists warned on Sunday, with their situation rapidly deteriorating amid a months-long paramilitary siege.
The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have taken most of the vast Darfur region in their war against the regular army since April 2023, but El-Fasher in North Darfur remains the only regional state capital the RSF has not conquered.
A local advocacy group, the Darfur General Coordination of Camps for the Displaced and Refugees, said in a statement that residents “bear the brunt of artillery shelling” and live “with the sounds of aircraft and their terrifying and deadly missiles, in addition to the daily suffering of hunger, disease and drought.”
Life in El-Fasher and other areas of Darfur “has come to a complete standstill,” the group said, with no food at markets and a “complete halt” in humanitarian aid.
There was a sharp rise in prices of basic commodities and “a severe shortage in cash,” it added, warning of an “unprecedented and catastrophic deterioration” in already dire conditions in and around El-Fasher.
The RSF-aligned armed group Sudan Liberation Army called on Saturday for civilians in El-Fasher and the nearby displacement camps of Abu Shouk and Zamzan to leave, warning of an “escalation of military operations.”
Another RSF ally, the Gathering of Sudan Liberation Forces, said it was ready to “provide safe corridors” for residents to leave and head to “liberated areas” under paramilitary control.
In late March, the RSF announced its fighters had seized Al-Malha, which lies at the foot of a mountainous region 200 kilometers (124 miles) northeast of El-Fasher.
Al-Malha is one of the northernmost towns in the vast desert region between Sudan and Libya, where the RSF’s critical resupply lines have come under increasing attack in recent months by army-allied groups.
The war has created what the United Nations describes as the world’s worst hunger and displacement crises. More than 12 million people have been uprooted, tens of thousands killed and a UN-backed assessment declared famine in parts of the country.
According to UN estimates, around two million people face extreme food insecurity in North Darfur state, with 320,000 already suffering famine conditions.
Zamzam is one of three displacement camps around El-Fasher hit by famine, which a UN-backed assessment says is expected to spread to five more areas including the state capital itself by May.


Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 32, mostly women and children

Updated 06 April 2025
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Israeli strikes on Gaza kill 32, mostly women and children

  • The latest Israeli strikes overnight into Sunday hit a tent and a house in the southern city of Khan Younis, killing five men, five women and five children, according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip killed at least 32 people, including over a dozen women and children, local health officials said Sunday, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu headed to the United States to meet with President Donald Trump about the war.
Israel last month ended its ceasefire with Hamas and renewed its air and ground offensive, carrying out waves of strikes and seizing territory to pressure the militant group to accept a new deal for a truce and release of remaining hostages. It has also blocked the import of food, fuel and humanitarian aid for over a month to the coastal territory heavily reliant on outside assistance.
“Stocks are getting low and the situation is becoming desperate,” the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees said on social media.
The latest Israeli strikes overnight into Sunday hit a tent and a house in the southern city of Khan Younis, killing five men, five women and five children, according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies.
A female journalist was among those killed. “My daughter is innocent. She had no involvement, she loved journalism and adored it,” said her mother, Amal Kaskeen.
The body of one child, under 2 years old, took up just one end of an emergency stretcher.
“Trump wants to end the Gaza issue. He is in a hurry, and that is clear from this morning,” said Mohammad Abdel-Hadi, cousin of a woman killed.
Israeli shelling killed at least four people in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The bodies of seven people, including a child and three women, arrived at Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza, according to an Associated Press journalist there.
And a strike in Gaza City hit people waiting outside a bakery and killed at least six, including three children, according to the civil defense, which operates under the Hamas-run government.
Israel’s military said about 10 projectiles were fired from Gaza and most were intercepted, in the largest barrage from the territory since Israel resumed the war. Hamas’ military arm claimed responsibility. Israeli police said some fragments fell in Ashkelon city. There were no reports of injuries.
Netanyahu visits Trump amid anti-war protests
Dozens of Palestinians took to the streets in Jabaliya for a new round of anti-war protests. Footage circulating on social media showed people marching and chanting against Hamas. Such protests, while rare, have occurred in recent weeks.
There is also anger inside Israel over the war’s resumption and its effects on remaining hostages in Gaza. Families of hostages along with some of those recently freed from Gaza and their supporters on Saturday urged Trump to help ensure the fighting ends.
Netanyahu on Monday will meet with Trump for the second time since Trump began his latest term in January. The prime minister said they would discuss the war and the new 17 percent tariff imposed on Israel, part of a sweeping global decision by the new US administration.
“There is a very large queue of leaders who want to do this with respect to their economies. I think it reflects the special personal connection and the special connection between the United States and Israel, which is so vital at this time,” Netanyahu said while wrapping up a visit to Hungary.
The US, a mediator in ceasefire efforts along with Egypt and Qatar, expressed support for Israel’s resumption of the war last month.
The toll of war
Hundreds of Palestinians since then have been killed, among them 15 medics whose bodies were recovered only a week later. Israel’s military this weekend backtracked on its account of what happened in the incident, captured in part on video, that caused anger by Red Cross and Red Crescent and UN officials.
The war began when Hamas-led militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostage. Fifty-nine hostages are still held in Gaza — 24 believed to be alive — after most of the rest were released in ceasefires or other deals.
Israel’s offensive has killed at least 50,695 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not say how many were civilians or combatants but says more than half were women and children. It says another 115,338 people have been wounded. Israel says it has killed around 20,000 militants, without providing evidence.


UNICEF forced to shut down malnutrition centers in Gaza amid worsening humanitarian crisis

Updated 06 April 2025
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UNICEF forced to shut down malnutrition centers in Gaza amid worsening humanitarian crisis

  • The closures are directly linked to Israel’s renewed military actions and the increasingly volatile security situation
  • UNICEF is awaiting findings from a special body tasked with assessing the scale of food insecurity in Gaza, official says

GAZA: The UN Children’s Fund has closed 21 malnutrition treatment centers in the Gaza Strip, citing ongoing Israeli military operations and recent evacuation orders in the areas where these centers were operating.

Kazem Abu Khalaf, a spokesperson for the organization, said on Sunday that the closures were directly linked to Israel’s renewed military actions and the increasingly volatile security situation, Palestinian WAFA news agency reported.

Abu Khalaf added that UNICEF was currently awaiting findings from a special body tasked with assessing the scale of food insecurity in Gaza, with the aim of presenting a comprehensive picture of the deteriorating conditions.

The closures come as Gaza faces an unprecedented humanitarian emergency, exacerbated by Israel’s continued blockade of aid into the enclave.

According to UNICEF, Israeli authorities have blocked all crossings into Gaza for 35 consecutive days, preventing the entry of food, medical supplies, and nutritional supplements.

On Saturday, UNICEF issued a stark warning, stating that more than one million children in Gaza have been cut off from life-saving humanitarian assistance for over a month.

The organization condemned the blockade, calling it a violation of international humanitarian law with devastating consequences for children and other vulnerable groups.

UNICEF confirmed it has thousands of aid parcels ready for immediate delivery but has been unable to gain access. It also revealed that food supplies for infants in Gaza have been entirely depleted, while the remaining stock of ready-to-use infant milk is only sufficient to feed 400 children for one month.

The crisis in Gaza has intensified since the resumption of hostilities in March, which ended a temporary ceasefire which came into force earlier this year.

Israel’s war with Hamas, which started in October 2023, has left much of Gaza’s infrastructure in ruins and displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Aid agencies have repeatedly warned of the risk of famine and a collapse of basic health services unless humanitarian access is urgently restored.