Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

Iraqis carry placards and wave the Palestinian flag during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)
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Updated 31 October 2023
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Will Israel-Hamas war in Gaza drag Iraq back into quagmire of conflict?

  • American troops in Iraq and Syria have already come under militia attack, prompting retaliation
  • PM Al-Sudani has condemned attacks, but analysts question his ability to rein in the militias

IRBIL, IRAQI KURDISTAN: With its coffers swelled by high oil prices and its politicians laying enmities aside, Iraq looked all set to enjoy a period of stability not seen in decades. However, the Israel-Hamas war that erupted in early October could undo this modest progress, especially if it inflames the sensitive regional situation and escalates into a wider conflict.

Various Iran-backed militias across the Middle East have threatened to attack American interests in the region if Washington becomes openly involved in Israel’s ground war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These militias have already attacked bases hosting American troops in Iraq and Syria with rockets and drones in recent days.

In an analysis for the Arab Center Washington DC, Rend Al-Rahim, a former Iraqi ambassador to the US, wrote: “In the space of just over two weeks, Israel’s war on Gaza has upended Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani’s year-long careful balancing of Iraq’s foreign relations and his efforts to maintain stability in Iraq.”

The US has ordered the departure of its “non-emergency” personnel from Iraq and warned Americans not to travel to the country due to the elevated threat level. The UK has also temporarily withdrawn staff from its embassy in Baghdad and advised Britons against all travel to Iraq, aside from strictly essential trips to Iraqi Kurdistan.




US Navy’s F/A-18 Super Hornets, attached Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 8, prepare for flight operations on the flight deck of the world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN) 78 in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, on October 13, 2023. (AFP)

An estimated 2,500 US troops are at present based in Iraq under authorization from Baghdad, advising and training Iraqi and Kurdish forces in their ongoing fight against Daesh. Another 900 are deployed in northeast Syria, partnered with local Kurdish-led forces in their own fight against remnants of the extremist group.

Since Oct. 17, US troops have come under rocket and drone attack at Iraq’s western Ain Al-Asad airbase, Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Harir airfield, and southern Syria’s Al-Tanf garrison. Twenty-one US personnel suffered “minor injuries,” but were able to promptly resume duties, while one civilian contractor died after suffering a cardiac incident during one of these attacks.

On Thursday, the US launched “precision self-defense strikes” against two facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its local affiliates. Lloyd Austin, the US defense secretary, described the strikes as a response to “a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups.”

These groups, including Kataib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq, and others, have threatened to step up attacks if Israel launches a major ground war against Hamas in Gaza, increasing the risk of US troops being severely injured or even killed and raising the possibility of the US military retaliating more forcefully. Such an escalation could potentially ignite an uncontrollable conflagration that could plunge Iraq back into chaos and war.

Al-Sudani has condemned the recent attacks on US troops in Iraq, branding them “unacceptable,” and has ordered state security forces to pursue the perpetrators.




An Iraqi boy carries a picture of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei during a protest in Baghdad, October 20, 2023, to express their support of the Palestinian people amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Palestinian groups. (AFP)

Many of the Iran-backed militias in Iraq are part of the country’s state-sanctioned paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF, some of whose leaders are in Al-Sudani’s government. Despite this, Al-Sudani has little to no control over these armed groups.

“Reports are that he (Al-Sudani) warned the pro-Iran groups that if they get directly involved in Gaza, the US and Israel would retaliate against them in Iraq,” Joel Wing, author of the blog, Musings on Iraq, told Arab News. “Other than that, he is powerless to constrain them.”

Indeed, shortly after the Israel-Hamas war began, Iraqi politician Hadi Al-Amiri, leader of the Iran-linked Badr Organization, which constitutes a large part of the PMF, said: “If they (the US) intervene, we would intervene ... we will consider all American targets legitimate.”




Iraqi forces and Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) advance towards the city of Al-Qaim, in western Anbar province, on the Syrian border as they fight against remnant pockets of Daesh on November 1, 2017. (AFP)

Ryan Bohl, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at the risk intelligence company RANE, similarly believes Al-Sudani’s government would “largely be a bystander” in the event of a significant escalation, with Tehran and Washington “driving events on the ground” rather than Baghdad.

“Iraq’s diplomatic maneuvering is likely to remain very critical of Israel and even the US at times, though it doesn’t yet seem like it’ll push US troops to leave the country,” Bohl told Arab News.

INNUMBERS

  • 42m Population of Iraq.
  • 11m Size of labor force.
  • 14.19% Total unemployment rate.
  • 27.2% Youth unemployment rate.
  • 27% Public debt as a percent of GDP.

One powerful Shiite figure and militia leader who has repeatedly clashed with pro-Iran factions in Iraq is Muqtada Al-Sadr, who has already brought his followers out in force to condemn Israel. Analysts believe he may seek to leverage the present crisis to reenter politics and challenge his Iran-backed rivals.

Wing says Al-Sadr, like other political leaders in Iraq, is “hoping to exploit” the crisis in Gaza for his own ends. Indeed, the street protests he has organized in recent days potentially mark the beginning of a campaign ahead of elections in December.

Bohl agrees it seems likely that Al-Sadr will use the crisis for “at least marginal political gain.” However, he is unsure whether the issue will bring Al-Sadr back into politics since the “factors that drove him out” in the first place have nothing to do with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

“On the other hand, if there is a major regional escalation that involves Iraq, Al-Sadr could be one of the Shiite politicians Iraq would look to for leadership as it accounted for how the country was pulled into the conflict to start with,” Bohl said.




Members of Iraq’s Shiite Muslim Al-Nujaba movement wave the Palestinian flag during a rally in Baghdad on October 8, 2023, to express their support of the “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” which was launched by Hamas militants the previous day against Israel from the Gaza Strip. (AFP)

The risk of a broader conflict is considerable. Wing says some Iraqi groups are already discussing “escalating their ongoing attacks” if a ground war begins in Gaza. He predicts such an escalation would “probably mean rocket and drone strikes on the US embassy” in Baghdad.

“I’ve read that factions are split about whether to get directly involved in the conflict. And if they did, it would be with Hezbollah in Lebanon and not with Hamas in Gaza,” he said.

Bohl believes that while it remains a “potent possibility” that an Israeli ground incursion into Gaza could result in significant instability in Iraq, “there are different drivers to consider.”

“If such militias escalate against the US too much, they could trigger a regional US reaction to Iran and its proxies that would not be in Iran’s interest,” he said.

“I largely expect they’ll engage in harassment and one-off attacks rather than mass attacks designed to cause significant casualties.”




Syrians wave flags and lift a placard depicting (L to R) Lebanon’s Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, Yemen’s Houthi leader Abdulmalik Al-Houthi, and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during a rally marking the yearly Al-Quds (Jerusalem) day, at the Al-Nayrab camp for Palestinian refugees east of Syria’s northern city of Aleppo, on May 7, 2021. (AFP)

Both analysts believe the latest attacks are intended to demonstrate the capabilities of these militias to strike US forces rather than to actually inflict casualties on them.

Wing summed up the current attacks as “completely symbolic,” explaining that if these militias wanted to launch “real assaults to do damage,” they would “use dozens of rockets and drones.”

“The ongoing attacks are just shooting a few rockets and using one, two drones,” he said. “If they caused some serious US casualties, Washington would retaliate, and I don’t think the Iraqi factions want that.”

For Bohl, these are “harassing attacks on US targets designed to gain political legitimacy and signal to the US and Israel the risks of escalation by their side.”




Syrian air defense reportedly intercepting an Israeli missile in the sky over the Syrian capital Damascus on February 24, 2020. (AFP)

In February 2021, a militia rocket attack targeting the American base in Iraqi-Kurdistan’s Irbil International Airport killed a civilian contractor. The US retaliated against Iran-backed militias in Syria instead of Iraq, likely to avoid destabilizing the situation in Iraq through tit-for-tat exchanges of fire.

It is unclear whether that was the goal of Thursday’s retaliatory strikes in Syria or if the US would consider retaliation within Iraq in the future.

“I think it completely depends upon the situation, such as where the attack takes place and the nature of the US casualties,” Wing said. “The bigger the death toll of US soldiers, the bigger Washington’s response will be.”

He added: “If a lot of Americans get killed, you could expect US retaliatory strikes across Syria and Iraq. If one or two get killed, the US would probably hit an ammo dump of some Iraqi faction.”




An Iraqi supporter of the Hashed Al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilization) forces walks past a poster depicting late Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis (R) and Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander Qasem Soleimani, in the capital Baghdad on December 30, 2020, ahead of the first anniversary of their killing in a US drone strike. (AFP)

Bohl also believes future US retaliatory strikes will “remain proportional and focused on the origins of the attacks” rather than “a comprehensive campaign” targeting Iran’s proxies across the region.

“But this would change if the US believed Iran was preparing for a region-wide escalation, at which point the US would likely try to prevent such an escalation with a more thorough pre-emptive campaign.”

Looking to the future, Al-Rahim, the former Iraqi diplomat and analyst, said: “What is certain is that the renewed strength of hardliners in Iraq will translate into increased Iranian interference in the country’s internal affairs and foreign policy choices.”

She expects Tehran’s regional calculations to “determine the scope and modality of belligerence by its Iraqi allies, leading to greater pressure” on Al-Sudani and his government.

 


UAE and India strengthen ties with 8 new cooperation agreements

Updated 8 sec ago
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UAE and India strengthen ties with 8 new cooperation agreements

MUMBAI: The UAE and India signed eight Memorandums of Understanding on Thursday across a broad range of sectors including infrastructure, healthcare, higher education, logistics and maritime services.

Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, Dubai’s crown prince and UAE defense minister, and Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal witnessed the signing at an event organized by Dubai Chambers in Mumbai.

Sheikh Hamdan, who is on his first official visit to India, said the two nations were “bound by a deep-rooted friendship and a shared dedication to shaping the future through innovation, opportunity, and sustainable growth.”

He added they “continue to build on a strong foundation of trust and collaboration,” guided by the vision of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, UAE Vice President and Prime Minister and Dubai ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India.

“These MoUs broaden and deepen our strategic partnership in line with our mutual commitment to creating resilient economies, empowering communities, and advancing knowledge, technology and human development. Together, we are advancing a model of international cooperation that delivers real impact and long-term benefits for the people of our two countries,” said Sheikh Hamdan.

Dubai Chambers signed three MoUs with leading Indian business bodies — the Confederation of Indian Industry, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, and the Indian Merchants’ Chamber — to support mutual market expansion, facilitate networking and promote participation in trade missions and exhibitions.

The agreements aim to boost information-sharing and enhance bilateral trade.

DP World signed two MoUs — one with Rail India Technical and Economic Service to develop advanced, tech-enabled supply chains and multimodal logistics infrastructure through the UAE-India Virtual Trade Corridor, and another between Drydocks World and Cochin Shipyard to jointly develop ship repair clusters in Kochi and Vadinar.

In the education sector, Dubai’s Department of Economy and Tourism signed an MoU with the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad to establish a new campus in Dubai. The facility will initially open in Dubai International Academic City, with plans for a permanent campus by 2029.

Healthcare collaboration was also a major focus. Dubai Health and key business figures from both countries signed an MoU to establish the UAE-India Friendship Hospital in Dubai, a philanthropic project offering inclusive healthcare services.

Additionally, Dubai Medical University and the All India Institute of Medical Science signed a cooperation agreement to facilitate joint research, academic exchange and collaboration in digital health and artificial intelligence applications in medicine.

Sheikh Hamdan said the continued growth in trade, investment and cooperation between the UAE and India highlighted the “strategic depth of the relationship” and the “vast potential” of their collaboration.

He added: “We look forward to accelerating progress in sectors that matter most for our collective future, building on the strong momentum we have achieved through frameworks like the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement and the Bilateral Investment Treaty.”


UAE mediates prisoner exchange between US and Russia in Abu Dhabi

Updated 17 min 15 sec ago
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UAE mediates prisoner exchange between US and Russia in Abu Dhabi

  • UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs facilitated the exchange of one Russian citizen for one US citizen
  • It is the second swap since President Donald Trump returned to office as Moscow and Washington push for closer ties

LONDON: The UAE mediated a prisoner exchange between Russia and the US on Thursday, which took place on its soil in Abu Dhabi.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs facilitated the exchange of one Russian citizen for one US citizen, with representatives from both countries present in Abu Dhabi.
The ministry expressed appreciation for the confidence placed in the UAE by the American and Russian governments in designating Abu Dhabi as the location for the prisoner exchange process, WAM reported.
It added that “choosing Abu Dhabi for the prisoner exchange process reflects the close friendship ties of both countries with the UAE.”
Abu Dhabi hopes these efforts will de-escalate tensions and enhance dialogue, contributing to regional and international security and stability, WAM added.
It is the second swap since President Donald Trump returned to the White House as Russia and the US push for closer ties.
Moscow released US-Russian ballet dancer Ksenia Karelina, who had been sentenced to 12 years in prison on treason charges, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirming early Thursday she was on a plane to the United States.
In exchange, the United States released Arthur Petrov, a Russian-German citizen who had been facing up to 20 years in a US prison for violating export controls and who was arrested in Cyprus in 2023 at Washington’s request for allegedly exporting sensitive microelectronics.
Abu Dhabi airport
CIA Director John Ratcliffe was present at the Abu Dhabi airport, where the exchange took place on Thursday, the AFP reported.
A CIA spokeswoman told the Wall Street Journal that “the exchange shows the importance of keeping lines of communication open with Russia, despite the deep challenges in our bilateral relationship.”
“While we are disappointed that other Americans remain wrongfully detained in Russia, we see this exchange as a positive step and will continue to work for their release,” she said.
Russia has yet to confirm the swap, which would be the second since Trump returned to the White House in January.
Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin have since pushed for a restoration of closer ties between the two countries that were severely damaged by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Several meetings between the two sides have taken place, with a new round of talks beginning Thursday in Istanbul on restoring some of the embassy operations that were scaled back following the Ukraine invasion.
Who are the prisoners?
Karelina, who was born in 1991 and lived in Los Angeles, was serving a 12-year prison sentence for having donated around $50 to a pro-Ukraine charity.
She was arrested in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg in January 2024 while on a trip to visit her family. She was charged with “treason.”
Russia’s Federal Security Service accused her of collecting funds for Ukraine’s army that were used to purchase “equipment, weapons and ammunition” — charges she denied. Her supporters say she donated to a US-based organization that delivers humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
Petrov was accused by US authorities of illegally exporting electronic components to Russia for military use, in violation of Washington’s sanctions against Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine.
In mid-February, following a call between Putin and Trump, Russia released Kalob Wayne Byers, a 28-year-old US citizen who was arrested at a Moscow airport for transporting cannabis treats.
Washington and Moscow also exchanged US teacher Marc Fogel for Russian computer expert Alexander Vinnik in early February.
The largest US-Russia prisoner exchange since the end of the Cold War took place on August 1, 2024. It involved the release of journalists, including WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich, and dissidents held in Russia in exchange for alleged Russian spies held in the West.
Several US citizens remain incarcerated in Russia, with Washington denouncing “hostage-taking” to obtain the release of Russians — including alleged spies — imprisoned in the West.

*Additional reporting from AFP


Red Cross concerned by drone attacks on critical infrastructure in Sudan

Updated 10 April 2025
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Red Cross concerned by drone attacks on critical infrastructure in Sudan

  • Some 70 percent to 80 percent of hospitals in Sudan were not running and there were concerns cholera could surge

GENEVA: The Red Cross raised alarm on Thursday at the growing use of drone attacks by warring parties on hospitals, electricity and water infrastructure in Sudan, which it said was contributing to widespread human rights violations.
Some 70 percent to 80 percent of hospitals in Sudan were not running and there were concerns cholera could surge due to damage caused by the war to water infrastructure, the International Committee of the Red Cross told reporters in Geneva.
“A recent drone attack stopped all the electricity provision in an area close to Khartoum, which means critical infrastructure is being damaged,” said Patrick Youssef, the Red Cross’s Regional Director for Africa, in a new report.
“There is a clear increased use of these technologies, drones – to be in the hands of everyone – which increases the impact on the local population and the intensity of attacks,” Youssef said.
After two years of fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, some people are returning to Khartoum after they were forced to flee when war broke out on April 15, 2023 amidst an ongoing power struggle between the army and the RSF ahead of a transition to civilian rule.
Some 12 million people have been displaced by the conflict since 2023.
“We have seen violations of the law left, right and center,” Youssef said, urging the warring parties to allow the Red Cross access so it can offer humanitarian support and document atrocities.
In March, aid groups said that the RSF had placed new constraints on aid deliveries to territories where it was seeking to cement its control. Aid groups have also accused the army of denying or hindering access to RSF-controlled areas.
Both sides in the conflict deny impeding aid.


Israeli minister says France plan to recognize Palestinian state ‘prize for terror’

Updated 10 April 2025
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Israeli minister says France plan to recognize Palestinian state ‘prize for terror’

  • France plans to recognize a Palestinian state within months and could make the move at a UN conference in New York in June on settling the Israel-Palestinian conflic

JERUSALEM: Israel’s Foreign Minister Gideon Saar denounced French President Emmanuel Macron’s announcement that Paris could recognize a Palestinian state by June, saying it would be a “prize” for terrorism.
“A unilateral recognition of a fictional Palestinian state, by any country, in the reality that we all know, will be a prize for terror and a boost for Hamas,” Saar said on X late on Wednesday. “These kind of actions will not bring peace, security and stability in our region closer — but the opposite: they only push them further away.”

France plans to recognize a Palestinian state within months and could make the move at a UN conference in New York in June on settling the Israel-Palestinian conflict, President Emmanuel Macron said Wednesday.
“We must move toward recognition, and we will do so in the coming months,” Macron, who this week visited Egypt, told France 5 television.
France has long championed a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, including after the October 7, 2023 attack by Palestinian militants Hamas on Israel.
But formal recognition by Paris of a Palestinian state would mark a major policy switch and risk antagonizing Israel which insists such moves by foreign states are premature.
In Egypt, Macron held summit talks with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II.


US strikes overnight in Yemen kill at least 3 people, Houthis say

Updated 10 April 2025
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US strikes overnight in Yemen kill at least 3 people, Houthis say

  • Houthis claim shooting down another American MQ-9 Reaper drone, showing footage of debris supposedly of the fallen UAV
  • Footage aired by the rebels’ Al-Masirah satellite news channel showed chaotic scenes of people carrying wounded to waiting ambulances

DUBAI: Suspected US airstrikes in Yemen overnight into Thursday killed at least three people, while the death toll in an earlier attack rose to 13 dead, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels said. The rebels meanwhile aired footage they said showed the debris left after shooting down yet another American MQ-9 Reaper drone.
The 13 killed in strikes Tuesday night around Hodeida’s Al-Hawak district made it one of the deadliest single incidents in the ongoing American campaign, the rebels said. Another 15 people were wounded. The Houthis described the majority of those killed as women and children, without providing a breakdown.
The area is home to the city’s airport, which the rebels have used in the past to target shipping in the Red Sea.
Since its start, the intense campaign of US airstrikes targeting the rebels over their attacks on shipping in Mideast waters — related to the Israel-Hamas war — has killed over 100 people, according to casualty figures released Wednesday by the Houthis.
Footage aired by the rebels’ Al-Masirah satellite news channel showed chaotic scenes of people carrying wounded to waiting ambulances and rescuers searching by the light of their mobile phones. The target appeared in the footage to be a home in a residential neighborhood, likely part of a wider decapitation campaign launched by the Trump administration to kill rebel leaders.
Early Thursday morning, the Houthis said airstrikes targeting the Al-Sabain District in the south of the rebel-held capital, Sanaa, killed at least three people. The area is home to Al-Sabeen Square and a major mosque that has been a gathering point for months for Houthi demonstrations against the war in the Gaza Strip. Other strikes hit the capital as well.
More airstrikes hit Kamaran Island in the Red Sea, the Houthis said.
The US military’s Central Command, which oversees American military operations, did not acknowledge the strikes. That follows a pattern for the command, which now has authorization from the White House to conduct strikes at will in the campaign that began March 15.
The American military also hasn’t been providing any information on targets hit. The White House has said over 200 strikes have been conducted so far.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking in the Oval Office on Monday during a visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, warned that America was “not going to relent” in its campaign targeting the Houthis.
Oil shipments targeted as US drone reportedly shot down
On Wednesday, the State Department said the US “will not tolerate any country or commercial entity providing support to foreign terrorist organizations, such as the Houthis, including offloading ships and provisioning oil at Houthi-controlled ports.” That likely will further squeeze the rebels, who already have had problems in their territory with bad gasoline destroying vehicle engines.
The Houthis also aired footage of the burning wreckage of what they described as an MQ-9 Reaper drone shot down in Yemen’s Al-Jawaf governorate. One man poked at the debris with a stick as those gathered chanted the Houthis’ slogan: “God is the greatest; death to America; death to Israel; curse the Jews; victory to Islam.”
Central Command said it was aware of the report of the shoot down, but declined to answer further.
The Houthis say they shoot down the drones with locally made missiles. The Houthis have surface-to-air missiles — such as the Iranian missile known as the 358 — capable of downing aircraft.
Iran denies arming the rebels, though Tehran-manufactured weaponry has been found on the battlefield and in sea shipments heading to Yemen for the Shiite Houthi rebels despite a United Nations arms embargo.
General Atomics Reapers, which cost around $30 million apiece, can fly at altitudes over 40,000 feet (12,100 meters) and remain in the air for over 30 hours. They have been flown by both the US military and the CIA for years over Afghanistan, Iraq and now Yemen.
The Houthis claim they’ve shot down 22 MQ-9s over the country over the years, with 18 downed during the rebels’ campaign over the Israel-Hamas war.
The US military hasn’t acknowledged the total number of drones it has lost there.
US airstrikes under Trump more intense than those under Biden
An AP review has found the new US operation against the Houthis under President Donald Trump appears more extensive than that under former President Joe Biden, as Washington moves from solely targeting launch sites to firing at ranking personnel and dropping bombs on cities.
The new campaign of airstrikes started after the rebels threatened to begin targeting “Israeli” ships again over Israel blocking aid entering the Gaza Strip. The rebels have loosely defined what constitutes an Israeli ship, meaning many vessels could be targeted.
The Houthis targeted more than 100 merchant vessels with missiles and drones, sinking two of them and killing four sailors from November 2023 until January of this year. They also launched attacks targeting American warships without success.
The US campaign shows no signs of stopping, as the Trump administration has linked its airstrikes on the Houthis to an effort to pressure Iran over its rapidly advancing nuclear program as well.