JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t elaborate when he said this week that Israel would maintain indefinite “overall security responsibility” in Gaza once it removes Hamas from power in response to a deadly Oct. 7 cross-border raid by the Islamic militant group.
Experience suggests that any Israeli security role will be seen by the Palestinians and much of the international community as a form of military occupation. This could complicate any plans to hand governing responsibility to the Palestinian Authority or friendly Arab states, and risk bogging Israel down in a war of attrition.
Even if Israel succeeds in ending Hamas’ 16-year rule in Gaza and dismantling much of its militant infrastructure, the presence of Israeli forces is likely to fuel an insurgency, as it did from 1967 to 2005. That period saw two Palestinian uprisings and the rise of Hamas.
Benny Gantz, of Israel’s three-member War Cabinet, acknowledged Wednesday that there’s still no long-term plan for Gaza. He said any plan would have to address Israel’s security needs.
“We can come up with any mechanism we think is appropriate, but Hamas will not be part of it,” he told reporters. “We need to replace the Hamas regime and ensure security superiority for us.”
Here’s a look at what a lingering Israeli security role might look like and the opposition it would inevitably generate.
OUTRIGHT OCCUPATION
In the 1967 Mideast war, Israel captured Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem, territories the Palestinians want for a future state. Israel annexed east Jerusalem, home to the Old City and its sensitive religious sites — a move not recognized by the international community — and considers the entire city its capital.
The military directly governed the West Bank and Gaza for decades, denying basic rights to millions of Palestinians. Soldiers staffed checkpoints and carried out regular arrest raids targeting militants and other Palestinians opposed to Israeli rule.
Israel also built Jewish settlements in all three areas. Palestinians and most of the international community consider these settlements illegal.
After two decades of outright military rule, Palestinians rose up in the first intifada, or uprising, in the late 1980s. That was also when Hamas first emerged as a political movement with an armed wing, challenging the secular Palestine Liberation Organization’s leadership of the national struggle.
THE WEST BANK MODEL
Interim peace deals in the mid-1990s known as the Oslo Accords established the Palestinian Authority as an autonomy government in the West Bank and Gaza meant to lead the way toward an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Several peace initiatives by a string of American presidents failed. The Palestinian Authority lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007.
That has left the Palestinian Authority in charge of roughly 40 percent of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Its powers are largely administrative, though it maintains a police force. Israel wields overall security control.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is deeply unpopular, in large part because his forces cooperate with Israel on security even as Palestinian hopes for statehood have all but disappeared. Many Palestinians view the PA as the subcontractor of a never-ending occupation.
Israel keeps tens of thousands of soldiers deployed across the West Bank. They provide security for more than 500,000 Jewish settlers and carry out nightly arrest raids, often sparking deadly gunbattles with militants.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has suggested the Palestinian Authority could return to Gaza after the war. That could further unravel Abbas’ legitimacy among his own people, unless it were linked to concrete steps toward Palestinian statehood.
Arab leaders, even those closely tied to Israel, will likely face similar backlash if they step in to help it control Gaza.
THE GAZA MODEL
What about an over-the-horizon presence, with moderate Palestinians maintaining security inside Gaza and with Israel intervening only when it deems absolutely necessary?
That’s been tried as well.
In 2005, in the wake of a second and far more violent intifada, Israel withdrew soldiers and over 8,000 settlers from Gaza. The PA administered the territory, but Israel continued to control its airspace, coastline and all but one border crossing.
Hamas won Palestinian elections the next year, leading to an international boycott and a severe financial crisis. Months of unrest boiled over in June 2007, when Hamas drove out forces loyal to Abbas in a week of street battles.
Israel and Egypt imposed a blockade on Gaza, severely restricting trade and travel in what Israel said was an effort to contain Hamas. Palestinians and rights groups considered it a form of collective punishment. It caused widespread misery among the enclave’s 2.3 million residents.
Israel, like most Western countries, considers Hamas a terrorist organization. Hamas has never recognized Israel’s existence and is committed to its destruction through armed struggle.
But over 16 years that saw four wars, the two entered into various undeclared cease-fires in which Israel eased the blockade in return for Hamas halting rocket attacks and reining in more radical armed groups.
For Israel, the arrangement was far from ideal but preferable to other options and bought yearslong periods of relative calm.
THE LEBANON MODEL
In 1978 and then again in 1982, Israel invaded southern Lebanon in a battle against Palestinian militants.
That led to an 18-year occupation enforced through local ally the South Lebanon Army, which received arms and training from Israel.
In 1982, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah was founded with Iranian backing with the objective of pushing Israeli forces out of the country. It carried out attacks on both the SLA and Israeli troops, eventually leading to Israel’s withdrawal in 2000.
The SLA quickly collapsed, creating a vacuum that was filled by Hezbollah. In 2006, the group battled Israel to a stalemate during a monthlong war.
Today, Hezbollah is the most powerful force in Lebanon. With an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, it’s considered a major threat by Israel.
ANOTHER WAY?
Israel has sent mixed messages about evolving plans for Gaza.
Leaders say they don’t want to reoccupy Gaza. They also say troops need freedom to operate inside Gaza long after heavy fighting subsides.
“On the question of the operation’s length — there are no limitations,” Gantz said Wednesday.
That could mean leaving troops stationed inside the territory or along the border.
Some officials have discussed a buffer zone to keep Palestinians away from the border. Others, including the US, have called for the Palestinian Authority’s return.
In another twist, Gantz suggested any future arrangement for Gaza be contingent on calming Israel’s northern front with Hezbollah and the West Bank, where troops regularly battle Palestinian militants.
“Once the Gaza area is safe, and the northern area will be safe, and the Judea and Samaria region will calm down – we will settle down and review an alternative mechanism for Gaza,” said Gantz, using the biblical term for the West Bank. “I do not know what it will be.”
Israel says it will maintain ‘overall security responsibility’ for Gaza. What might that look like?
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Israel says it will maintain ‘overall security responsibility’ for Gaza. What might that look like?
- Even if Israel succeeds in ending Hamas’ 16-year rule in Gaza and dismantling much of its militant infrastructure, the presence of Israeli forces is likely to fuel an insurgency, as it did from 1967 to 2005
Regional war puts Palestinian disarmament in Lebanese camps on hold
- Dimashkieh affirmed that “the dialogue committee is fully committed to the joint statement issued by the Lebanese and Palestinian presidents”
- Palestinian sources told Arab News that significant resistance has emerged within Palestinian ranks over Abbas’s quick acceptance of disarmament deadlines
BEIRUT: A Palestinian official in Lebanon announced “the postponement of the scheduled collection of weapons from Palestinian refugee camps due to the current situation in the region.”
The announcement came just hours before the Lebanese government was set to begin disarming Palestinian refugee camps in Beirut and its suburbs this week.
Citing a Lebanese official familiar with Palestinian affairs in Lebanon, Palestinian news agency WAFA stated that “Palestine renewed its commitment to the joint statement issued on May 21 following the meeting held between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and President Mahmoud Abbas in Beirut.”
He added that the statement emphasized “Lebanon’s sovereignty, the extension of state authority, and the exclusive right of the Lebanese state to bear arms, as well as the need to end any manifestations outside its authority.
“Palestinian security and military bodies will begin full cooperation with the Lebanese security forces as agreed upon when conditions permit and after the necessary preparations are completed,” the official said.
On the Lebanese side, the only statement issued in this regard was by Ramez Dimashkieh, head of the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee, who said that “he received a call from Azzam Al-Ahmad, secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization, during which they discussed the latest developments.”
Dimashkieh affirmed that “the dialogue committee is fully committed to the joint statement issued by the Lebanese and Palestinian presidents, which clearly emphasized respect for Lebanese sovereignty, the principle of exclusive state control over weapons, and the necessity of ending the visible presence of Palestinian arms, according to a specific timeline.”
Youssef Al-Zari’i, Fatah’s media representative in Sidon, confirmed that Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Islamic movements, all expressed willingness to hand over weapons and allow Lebanese authority throughout the country.
However, he argued that delays are “reasonable given the delicate regional situation,” with implementation tied to evolving Middle Eastern dynamics.
Palestinian sources told Arab News that significant resistance has emerged within Palestinian ranks over Abbas’s quick acceptance of disarmament deadlines. “Multiple Palestinian factions, particularly within Fatah, are uncomfortable with Abbas’s hasty agreement to weapon collection schedules,” one insider said.
Beyond regional timing issues, fundamental questions about execution mechanisms remain unresolved.
“Fatah claims it holds limited heavy weapons in Lebanese camps compared to other groups, especially Hamas,” a source said.
Since Fatah’s weapons belong to the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority and operate under Lebanese oversight, unilateral disarmament could create dangerous imbalances.
“If Fatah surrenders its arsenal while Hamas and affiliated groups retain theirs, Fatah becomes vulnerable within camp dynamics,” the source warned.
Hamas continues defending its Lebanese weapons as legitimate resistance tools while deflecting surrender demands through broader political arguments. The group links disarmament to comprehensive refugee solutions, including return rights and enhanced social protections for displaced populations in Lebanon.
Palestinian camps across Lebanon emphasize that sustainable solutions must address living standards, legal rights including property ownership, while maintaining respect for Lebanese sovereignty and law.
The Lebanese and Palestinian presidents announced in a joint statement issued following their meeting a few weeks ago “the formation of joint committees to address the issue of Palestinian weapons in refugee camps and to monitor the situation in the Palestinian camps.”
They affirmed their commitment to the principle of placing all weapons under Lebanese state control.
According to a joint Lebanese-Palestinian census conducted in 2017, the number of Palestinian refugees in Lebanon is estimated at around 200,000. Many live in harsh conditions within camps overseen by Palestinian factions and forces, which consider the possession of arms as integral to both the right of return and the broader struggle for the liberation of Palestine.
Lebanon is home to 12 official Palestinian refugee camps, along with dozens of other communities dispersed across the country.
The presence of weapons in Palestinian camps in Lebanon dates back to the 1969 Cairo Agreement between the PLO and the Lebanese government.
The agreement stipulated that Palestinians were permitted to establish military bases in southern Lebanon and conduct political activities within the camps, effectively legitimizing armed Palestinian presence on Lebanese soil and in camps.
However, following a civil war in which Palestinian weapons played a dominant role, Lebanon officially annulled the agreement in 1987.
Weapons are distributed unevenly among the camps. Heavy weapons are found in the Ain Al-Hilweh camp, the most overcrowded camp and home to the various politically and militarily diverse factions, and in the Rashidieh camp in the Tyre region.
This is in contrast to the Nahr Al-Bared camp in the north, which is completely devoid of weapons. It has been under the control of the Lebanese Army since 2007, following violent battles that lasted for more than three months between the Lebanese Army and Fatah Al-Islam, which launched attacks against the military that killed dozens.
The disarmament process was scheduled to begin this week in the Shatila, Mar Elias, and Burj Al-Barajneh camps in Beirut and its southern suburbs.
“A committee was supposed to be formed to oversee implementation. There were discussions about assigning this role to the Lebanese-Palestinian Dialogue Committee, which was seen by some as the appropriate authority. However, others dismissed it as a political body unrelated to the issue. This raised further questions: Who would assume responsibility for internal Palestinian affairs once weapons were handed over? Who would manage security inside the camps? And who would handle the cases of wanted individuals and those who had taken refuge there?” a Palestinian source stated.
In recent months, the Lebanese Army has confiscated weapons from Palestinian military sites supported by the Syrian regime and located in the Bekaa Valley on the border with Syria. The most important of these was a base in Qusaya belonging to the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, General Command and Fatah Al-Intifada, confiscating their equipment and ammunition.
Before the outbreak of the Nahr Al-Bared camp battles, Lebanese political leaders had agreed during national dialogue talks to disarm Palestinians outside the camps within six months.
This commitment was later echoed in the 2008 Doha Agreement, which outlined a national defense strategy that included addressing Palestinian arms both inside and outside the camps.
However, these decisions were never implemented. In the years that followed, Ain Al-Hilweh, the largest Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, repeatedly witnessed violent clashes among rival Palestinian factions.
Israel closes Al-Aqsa Mosque, Church of the Holy Sepulchre under ‘emergency’ measures
- Most shops in Jerusalem’s Old City have been closed, with only essential stores remaining open since Friday
- Palestinians in Jerusalem fear for their safety due to lack of proper shelters amid Israel-Iran conflict
LONDON: Israeli authorities in occupied East Jerusalem have imposed a closure for the fifth consecutive day on the Al-Aqsa Mosque and the Church of the Holy Sepulchre while barring non-resident visitors from entering the Old City.
Israel announced a state of emergency after beginning airstrikes against Iran on Friday. Tehran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at Israeli coastal towns and cities. Israel’s emergency measures prevented Palestinians and worshipers from entering the Al-Aqsa Mosque and its courtyards, as well as the Church of the Holy Sepulchre.
The Palestinian Authority’s Jerusalem Governorate added on Tuesday that most shops in the Old City had been closed, with only essential stores remaining open since Friday, Wafa news agency reported.
Israeli authorities have permitted settlers to visit the area surrounding the Al-Aqsa compound and perform Jewish prayers and rituals, while forces have intensified daily raids on Palestinian towns and suburbs in Jerusalem, including the Mount of Olives, Silwan, Issawiya, Shufaat, Hizma, Eizariya, Bir Nabala and Al-Ram, Wafa added. East Jerusalem is surrounded by 84 checkpoints and barriers, including recently installed earth mounds and gates.
Although Jerusalem has been spared so far from the Israel-Iran conflict, Palestinians in the city fear for their safety due to a lack of proper shelters within their towns and neighborhoods, Wafa reported.
Israeli authorities in Jerusalem have announced the opening of schools to be used as shelters from Iranian missile attacks. However, some Palestinian experts warned that the facilities may not be large enough to accommodate a significant number of residents, and some are even unsuitable for receiving civilians.
WHO says Gaza health care at breaking point as fuel runs out
- “For over 100 days, no fuel has entered Gaza and attempts to retrieve stocks from evacuation zones have been denied,” said Peeperkorn
- Peeperkorn said only 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were currently minimally to partially functional
GENEVA: The World Health Organization on Tuesday pleaded for fuel to be allowed into Gaza to keep its remaining hospitals running, warning the Palestinian territory’s health system was at “breaking point.”
“For over 100 days, no fuel has entered Gaza and attempts to retrieve stocks from evacuation zones have been denied,” said Rik Peeperkorn, the WHO’s representative in the Palestinian territories.
“Combined with critical supply shortages, this is pushing the health system closer to the brink of collapse.”
Peeperkorn said only 17 of Gaza’s 36 hospitals were currently minimally to partially functional. They have a total of around 1,500 beds — around 45 percent fewer than before the conflict began.
He said all hospitals and primary health centers in north Gaza were currently out of service.
In Rafah in southern Gaza, health services are provided through the Red Cross field hospital and two partially-functioning medical points.
Speaking from Jerusalem, he said the 17 partially functioning hospitals and seven field hospitals were barely running on a minimum amount of daily fuel and “will soon have none left.”
“Without fuel, all levels of care will cease, leading to more preventable deaths and suffering.”
Hospitals were already switching between generators and batteries to power ventilators, dialysis machines and incubators, he said, and without fuel, ambulances cannot run and supplies cannot be delivered to hospitals.
Furthermore, field hospitals are entirely reliant on generators, and without electricity, the cold chain for keeping vaccines would fail.
The war was triggered by an unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, which resulted in the deaths of 1,219 people, according to official Israeli figures.
The health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said on Monday that 5,194 people have been killed since Israel resumed strikes on the territory on March 18 following a truce.
The overall death toll in Gaza since the war broke out on October 7, 2023 has reached 55,493 people, according to the health ministry.
“People often ask when Gaza is going to be out of fuel; Gaza is already out of fuel,” said WHO trauma surgeon and emergency officer Thanos Gargavanis, speaking from the Strip.
“We are walking already the fine line that separates disaster from saving lives. The shrinking humanitarian space makes every health activity way more difficult than the previous day.”
How Israel used spies, smuggled drones and AI to stun and hobble Iran
- The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack
JERUSALEM: Israel stunned and hobbled Iran last week when it pulled off an intelligence and military operation years in the making that struck high-level targets with precision.
Guided by spies and artificial intelligence, the Israeli military unleashed a nighttime fusillade of warplanes and armed drones smuggled into Iran to quickly incapacitate many of its air defenses and missile systems. With greater freedom to fly over Iran, Israel bombarded key nuclear sites and killed top generals and scientists. By the time Iran mustered a response hours later, its ability to retaliate — already weakened by past Israeli strikes — was greatly diminished.
This account is based on conversations with 10 current and former Israeli intelligence and military officials, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss clandestine operations.
It was not possible to independently verify some of their claims. But the former head of research at Israel’s spy agency, the Mossad, confirmed the basic contours of the attack, saying she had inside knowledge of how it was planned and executed.
“This attack is the culmination of years of work by the Mossad to target Iran’s nuclear program,” said Sima Shine, the former Mossad research director who is now an analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies.
Israel’s element of surprise was enhanced by Iranian officials’ apparent assumption that Israel wouldn’t attack while talks over its rapidly advancing nuclear program were ongoing with the US
A sixth round of talks had been planned for last Sunday in Oman, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu activated “Operation Rising Lion” on Friday – after his country first notified President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu has for years said neutralizing Iran’s nuclear program was vital for Israel’s security, and Israel had previously taken steps to set back Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to weapons grade. But Netanyahu said a more aggressive attack proved necessary, as Iran kept advancing its enrichment program despite US diplomatic efforts and warnings from UN watchdogs.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini has repeatedly called for Israel’s destruction. Iran’s political leaders say their nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, though it was the only country without the bomb to enrich uranium close to weapons-grade levels.
Smuggling drones into Iran
The Mossad and the military worked together for at least three years to lay the operational groundwork, according to a former intelligence officer who said he had knowledge of the attack. This person spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the subject.
The attack built off knowledge Israel gained during a wave of airstrikes last October, which “highlighted the weakness of Iranian air defenses,” said Naysan Rafati, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group.
To further diminish Iranian air defenses and missile systems at the start of last week’s attack, Mossad agents had smuggled precision weapons into Iran that were prepositioned to strike from close range, according to two current security officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the missions. Those weapons included small, armed drones, which agents snuck into the country in vehicles, according to the former intelligence officer.
Mossad agents stationed weapons close to Iranian surface-to-air missile sites, Shine said. The agency works with a mix of people, both locals and Israelis, she said.
Using AI and human intelligence to select targets
To analyze information gathered from various sources, Israel used the latest artificial-intelligence, or AI, technology, said an intelligence officer involved with selecting individuals and sites to target. He said AI was used to help Israelis quickly sift through troves of data they had obtained. That effort began last October according to the officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media; it was one month before Netanyahu said he had ordered the attack plans.
An investigation by The Associated Press earlier this year uncovered that the Israeli military uses US-made AI models in war to sift through intelligence and intercept communications to learn the movements of its enemies. It’s been used in the wars with Hamas in Gaza and with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The intelligence officer involved in identifying the possible targets said options were first put into various groups, such as leadership, military, civilian and infrastructure. Targets were chosen if they were determined to be a threat to Israel, such as being deeply associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard — a paramilitary force that controls Iran’s ballistic missiles.
The officer was tasked with putting together a list of Iranian generals, including details on where they worked and spent their free time.
Among the high-level military officials killed since Friday’s attack were Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and Gen. Mohammed Bagheri, the chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces.
In addition to AI, the Mossad relied on spies to identify top nuclear scientists and members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, according to one security official. At least eight members of the Guard, including the head of its missile program, were killed in a single Israeli strike on an underground bunker.
Targeting Iranian vehicles
Another facet of the attack was to strike Iranian vehicles used to transport and launch missiles.
Shine said the strategy was similar to a Ukrainian operation earlier this month in Russia. In that operation, nearly a third of Moscow’s strategic bomber fleet was destroyed or damaged with cheaply made drones snuck into Russian territory, according to Ukrainian officials.
In an interview with Iranian state-run television, the country’s police chief, Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, said “several vehicles carrying mini-drones and some tactical drones have been discovered.” He added: “a number of traitors are trying to engage the country’s air defense by flying some mini-drones.”
How far back does this go?
The Mossad is believed to have carried out numerous covert attacks on the Iranian nuclear program over the years, including cyberattacks and the killing of Iranian nuclear scientists. But it rarely acknowledges such operations.
In the 2000s, Iranian centrifuges used for enriching uranium were destroyed by the so-called Stuxnet computer virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation.
In 2018, Israel stole an archive of Iranian nuclear research that included tens of thousands of pages of records, said Yossi Kuperwasser, a retired general and former military intelligence researcher who now directs the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
In July 2024, Israel killed a senior leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, with a bomb in a bedroom of a government guesthouse in Tehran.
Israel’s blistering attack last week on the heart of Iran’s nuclear and military structure didn’t come out of nowhere, said retired Israeli Brig. Gen. Amir Avivi, who heads the Israel Defense and Security Forum think tank.
It was the result of “Israeli intelligence working extensively for years in Iran and establishing a very strong robust presence,” he said.
Iraq treads a tightrope to avoid spillover from Israel-Iran conflict
- “There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq,” said political analyst Sajad Jiyad
- “Iraqis have a right to be worried”
BAGHDAD: In Iraqi airspace, Iranian missiles and drones have crossed paths with Israeli warplanes, forcing Baghdad to step up efforts to avoid being drawn into the region’s latest conflict.
But with Baghdad both an ally of Iran and a strategic partner of the United States, Israel’s closest supporter, it may struggle to avoid the fighting spreading to its territory.
“There is a sizable risk of a spillover escalation in Iraq,” said political analyst Sajad Jiyad.
“Iraqis have a right to be worried,” he added.
With warnings of all-out regional war intensifying following Israel’s surprise assault on Iran last week, fears are growing over an intervention by Iran-backed Iraqi factions, which have been calling for the withdrawal of US troops deployed in Iraq as part of an anti-jihadist coalition.
A senior Iraqi security official told AFP on condition of anonymity that among pro-Iran actors “everyone is cooperating with the government to keep Iraq away from conflict.”
But Jiyad warned that if the US supports Israel’s attacks, it “may lead to pro-Iran elements inside Iraq targeting US troops” or other American interests like the embassy in Baghdad or the consulate in Irbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdistan region.
This could lead to the US and Israel taking retaliatory actions within Iraq, Jiyad added.
Iraq, which has been for years navigating a delicate balancing act between Tehran and Washington, has long been a fertile ground for proxy battles.
In 2020, during US President Donald Trump’s first term, Washington killed Iran’s esteemed Revolutionary Guards general Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad.
Most recently, amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Iraq was on the brink of being drawn into the conflict after pro-Iran factions launched numerous attacks on US troops in the region, as well as mostly failed attacks on Israel, in support of Palestinians.
Washington retaliated by hitting the armed groups.
In recent days, Baghdad has been working diplomatic channels to prevent the latest violence from spreading onto its turf.
It has called on Washington to prevent Israeli jets from using Iraqi airspace to carry out attacks against Iran.
It also asked Iran not to strike US targets in its territory, and was promised “positive things,” according to a senior Iraqi official.
Israel’s use of Iraq’s airspace has angered pro-Iran groups, who accused US troops of allowing it.
Powerful armed faction Kataeb Hezbollah stressed that Iran does not need “military support,” but it said that the group is “closely monitoring” the US military in the region.
It warned that if Washington intervenes in the war, the group “will act directly against its interests and bases in the region without hesitation.”
A US official urged the Iraqi government to “protect diplomatic missions, as well as US military personnel.”
“We believe Iraq will be more stable and sovereign by becoming energy independent and distancing itself from Iran’s malign influence,” the official told AFP, referring to Iraq’s dependency on gas imports from Iran.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that Iran-backed groups “continue to engage in violent and destabilising activities in Iraq.”
Israel’s surprise attack on Iran targeted military and nuclear facilities and killed many top commanders and atomic scientists. Iran responded by unleashing barrages of missile strikes on Israel.
Tamer Badawi, an expert on Iraqi armed groups, said “the more Iran struggles to sustain its firepower against Israel, the likelier it becomes that Iraqi paramilitary actors will be drawn in.”
For now, “Iran is trying to avoid collateral damage to its network by keeping its regional allies on standby. But this posture could shift,” he added.
Before launching its attack on Iran, Israel had badly hit Tehran’s proxies in the region, significantly weakening some groups, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
“Beyond attacks within Iraq, Iran-backed Iraqi groups retain the capacity to target Israel from western Iraq using their missile arsenals, as they have done before,” Badawi said.
They might also target American interests in Jordan.
But Iraqi officials say they have other plans for their country, which has only recently regained a semblance of stability after decades of devastating conflicts and turmoil.
Iraq is gearing up for its legislative elections in November, which are often marked by heated political wrangling.
For armed groups, elections are a crucial battleground as they strive to secure more seats in parliament.
“Sometimes, the sword must be kept in the sheath, but this does not mean abandoning our weapons,” a commander of an armed faction told AFP.
The armed groups will not leave Iran, their “godfather.. in the battle alone.”
