JERUSALEM: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t elaborate when he said this week that Israel would maintain indefinite “overall security responsibility” in Gaza once it removes Hamas from power in response to a deadly Oct. 7 cross-border raid by the Islamic militant group.
Experience suggests that any Israeli security role will be seen by the Palestinians and much of the international community as a form of military occupation. This could complicate any plans to hand governing responsibility to the Palestinian Authority or friendly Arab states, and risk bogging Israel down in a war of attrition.
Even if Israel succeeds in ending Hamas’ 16-year rule in Gaza and dismantling much of its militant infrastructure, the presence of Israeli forces is likely to fuel an insurgency, as it did from 1967 to 2005. That period saw two Palestinian uprisings and the rise of Hamas.
Benny Gantz, of Israel’s three-member War Cabinet, acknowledged Wednesday that there’s still no long-term plan for Gaza. He said any plan would have to address Israel’s security needs.
“We can come up with any mechanism we think is appropriate, but Hamas will not be part of it,” he told reporters. “We need to replace the Hamas regime and ensure security superiority for us.”
Here’s a look at what a lingering Israeli security role might look like and the opposition it would inevitably generate.
OUTRIGHT OCCUPATION
In the 1967 Mideast war, Israel captured Gaza, the West Bank and east Jerusalem, territories the Palestinians want for a future state. Israel annexed east Jerusalem, home to the Old City and its sensitive religious sites — a move not recognized by the international community — and considers the entire city its capital.
The military directly governed the West Bank and Gaza for decades, denying basic rights to millions of Palestinians. Soldiers staffed checkpoints and carried out regular arrest raids targeting militants and other Palestinians opposed to Israeli rule.
Israel also built Jewish settlements in all three areas. Palestinians and most of the international community consider these settlements illegal.
After two decades of outright military rule, Palestinians rose up in the first intifada, or uprising, in the late 1980s. That was also when Hamas first emerged as a political movement with an armed wing, challenging the secular Palestine Liberation Organization’s leadership of the national struggle.
THE WEST BANK MODEL
Interim peace deals in the mid-1990s known as the Oslo Accords established the Palestinian Authority as an autonomy government in the West Bank and Gaza meant to lead the way toward an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Several peace initiatives by a string of American presidents failed. The Palestinian Authority lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007.
That has left the Palestinian Authority in charge of roughly 40 percent of the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Its powers are largely administrative, though it maintains a police force. Israel wields overall security control.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is deeply unpopular, in large part because his forces cooperate with Israel on security even as Palestinian hopes for statehood have all but disappeared. Many Palestinians view the PA as the subcontractor of a never-ending occupation.
Israel keeps tens of thousands of soldiers deployed across the West Bank. They provide security for more than 500,000 Jewish settlers and carry out nightly arrest raids, often sparking deadly gunbattles with militants.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has suggested the Palestinian Authority could return to Gaza after the war. That could further unravel Abbas’ legitimacy among his own people, unless it were linked to concrete steps toward Palestinian statehood.
Arab leaders, even those closely tied to Israel, will likely face similar backlash if they step in to help it control Gaza.
THE GAZA MODEL
What about an over-the-horizon presence, with moderate Palestinians maintaining security inside Gaza and with Israel intervening only when it deems absolutely necessary?
That’s been tried as well.
In 2005, in the wake of a second and far more violent intifada, Israel withdrew soldiers and over 8,000 settlers from Gaza. The PA administered the territory, but Israel continued to control its airspace, coastline and all but one border crossing.
Hamas won Palestinian elections the next year, leading to an international boycott and a severe financial crisis. Months of unrest boiled over in June 2007, when Hamas drove out forces loyal to Abbas in a week of street battles.
Israel and Egypt imposed a blockade on Gaza, severely restricting trade and travel in what Israel said was an effort to contain Hamas. Palestinians and rights groups considered it a form of collective punishment. It caused widespread misery among the enclave’s 2.3 million residents.
Israel, like most Western countries, considers Hamas a terrorist organization. Hamas has never recognized Israel’s existence and is committed to its destruction through armed struggle.
But over 16 years that saw four wars, the two entered into various undeclared cease-fires in which Israel eased the blockade in return for Hamas halting rocket attacks and reining in more radical armed groups.
For Israel, the arrangement was far from ideal but preferable to other options and bought yearslong periods of relative calm.
THE LEBANON MODEL
In 1978 and then again in 1982, Israel invaded southern Lebanon in a battle against Palestinian militants.
That led to an 18-year occupation enforced through local ally the South Lebanon Army, which received arms and training from Israel.
In 1982, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah was founded with Iranian backing with the objective of pushing Israeli forces out of the country. It carried out attacks on both the SLA and Israeli troops, eventually leading to Israel’s withdrawal in 2000.
The SLA quickly collapsed, creating a vacuum that was filled by Hezbollah. In 2006, the group battled Israel to a stalemate during a monthlong war.
Today, Hezbollah is the most powerful force in Lebanon. With an estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles, it’s considered a major threat by Israel.
ANOTHER WAY?
Israel has sent mixed messages about evolving plans for Gaza.
Leaders say they don’t want to reoccupy Gaza. They also say troops need freedom to operate inside Gaza long after heavy fighting subsides.
“On the question of the operation’s length — there are no limitations,” Gantz said Wednesday.
That could mean leaving troops stationed inside the territory or along the border.
Some officials have discussed a buffer zone to keep Palestinians away from the border. Others, including the US, have called for the Palestinian Authority’s return.
In another twist, Gantz suggested any future arrangement for Gaza be contingent on calming Israel’s northern front with Hezbollah and the West Bank, where troops regularly battle Palestinian militants.
“Once the Gaza area is safe, and the northern area will be safe, and the Judea and Samaria region will calm down – we will settle down and review an alternative mechanism for Gaza,” said Gantz, using the biblical term for the West Bank. “I do not know what it will be.”
Israel says it will maintain ‘overall security responsibility’ for Gaza. What might that look like?
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Israel says it will maintain ‘overall security responsibility’ for Gaza. What might that look like?
- Even if Israel succeeds in ending Hamas’ 16-year rule in Gaza and dismantling much of its militant infrastructure, the presence of Israeli forces is likely to fuel an insurgency, as it did from 1967 to 2005
France congratulates new Lebanon president, calls for ‘strong government’
- French foreign ministry said Joseph Aoun's election “opens a new page" for Lebanon
PARIS: France on Thursday welcomed the election by Lebanese lawmakers of army chief Joseph Aoun as president after a two-year vacuum at the top, urging the formation of a strong government to drag the country out of a political and economic crisis.
Extending France’s “warm congratulations” to Aoun, the French foreign ministry said his election “opens a new page for the Lebanese” and urged “the appointment of a strong government” that can help the country recover.
Italian foreign minister to meet Syria's new rulers in Damascus
- Antonio Tajani said he would push Syria’s transitional government to pursue an “inclusive political process”
ROME: Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Wednesday he would travel to Syria Friday where he plans to announce an initial development aid package for the country ravaged by years of war.
Tajani’s trip follows those by his French and German counterparts, who visited the Syrian capital last week to meet Syria’s new rulers after they toppled Bashar Assad's regime in a lightning offensive last month.
“It is essential to preserve territorial integrity and prevent (Syria’s) territory from being exploited by terrorist organizations and hostile actors,” Tajani told parliament.
Western powers have been cautiously hoping for greater stability in Syria, a decade after the war triggered a major refugee crisis that shook up European politics.
Tajani did not provide any details about what he called a “first package of aid for cooperation and development.”
Tajani said he would push Syria’s transitional government to pursue an “inclusive political process” that “recognizes and enhances the role of Christians as citizens with full rights.”
Ahead of his trip, Tajani is set Thursday to meet with the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Britain and the United States over the Syria situation, with the drafting of a new constitution and Syria’s economic recovery on the agenda.
The EU’s foreign affairs chief, Kaja Kallas, was expected in Rome for the meeting.
Thousands of Alawites mourn 3 killed by foreign Islamists: monitor, witness
- “Thousands of mourners gathered at the funeral of three Alawite farmers from the same family,” said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
- The civilians were killed on Wednesday in the village of Ain Sharqia
DAMASCUS: Thousands of Syrians from ousted President Bashar Assad’s Alawite community mourned on Thursday three civilians killed by foreign Islamist allies of the country’s new authorities, a war monitor and an attendee said.
Since Assad’s ouster, violence against Alawites, long associated with his clan, has soared, with the monitor recording at least 148 killings.
“Thousands of mourners gathered at the funeral of three Alawite farmers from the same family, including one child, killed by foreign Islamist fighters allied to Syria’s new authorities,” said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor.
The civilians were killed on Wednesday in the village of Ain Sharqia, in the Alawite heartland of Latakia province, the Observatory said.
“Down with the factions,” some of those in attendance chanted in reference to armed groups, according to footage shared by the monitor.
Mourner Ali told AFP that people had called for those responsible for the killings to be punished and for foreign fighters to leave so that local policemen affiliated with the new authorities could take their place.
“We can’t have people die every day,” he said, asking to be identified only by his first name to discuss sensitive matters.
“We want security and safety to prevail; we support the transitional authorities. We do not want any more killings after today.”
Rami Abdel Rahman, who heads the Observatory, told AFP the mourners also demanded that Syria’s new rulers free thousands of detained soldiers and conscripts.
The Alawite community was over-represented in the country’s now-defunct armed forces.
On Tuesday, three Alawite clerics were also killed by unknown gunmen on the road from Tartus to Damascus, the monitor said.
Another cleric and his wife were found dead in the Hama countryside Thursday after they were abducted a day earlier.
Last month, angry protests broke out in Syria over a video showing an attack on an Alawite shrine, with the Observatory reporting one demonstrator killed in Homs city.
Syrian authorities said the footage was “old” and that “unknown groups” were behind the attack, saying republishing the video served to “stir up strife.”
The alliance spearheaded by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which seized Damascus and ousted Assad on December 8 after a lightning offensive, has sought to reassure minority communities in the Sunni Muslim majority country.
Assad had long presented himself as a protector of minority groups.
Lebanon’s new president promises to rebuild what ‘Israel has destroyed’
- The Mediterranean country has been without a president since the term of Michel Aoun ended in October 2022
BEIRUT: Newly elected Lebanese president Joseph Aoun has promised to rebuild what the Israeli occupation has destroyed, in a speech before parliament after taking his oath of office.
The Lebanese state will be able to remove Israeli occupation and the effects of its aggression, Aoun said, after hurdling the second round of voting in parliament to become the country’s new president.
“I promise to reconstruct what Israel destroyed in the south and Beirut’s southern suburbs,’ he said.
The newly elected president also touched on the Palestinian issue, saying he rejects the settlement of Palestinian people and guaranteed their right to return.
He also pledged to work towards the best of relations with Arab countries, and cooperate with Syria to control the borders from both sides.
The Mediterranean country has been without a president since the term of Michel Aoun – not related – ended in October 2022, with tensions between the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement and its opponents scuppering a dozen previous votes.
During parliament’s first session on Thursday morning, 71 out of 128 lawmakers voted in favor of the army commander, short of the required 86, in the first round of the vote.
Thirty-seven members of parliament voted blank, including 30 lawmakers from the pro-Hezbollah bloc, according to a source close to it.
Twenty ballots were declared null and void.
Aoun received 99 votes during the second round, more than the minimum votes required for him to be voted into office.
But international pressure has mounted for a successful outcome with just 17 days remaining in a ceasefire to deploy Lebanese troops alongside UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon after a Hezbollah-Israel war last autumn.
Speaker Nabih Berri then suspended the session until 2:00 p.m. sparking outrage from some lawmakers who demanded an immediate second vote.
The president’s powers have been reduced since the end of the 1975-1990 civil war. But filling the position is key to overseeing consultations toward naming a new prime minister to lead a government capable of carrying out reforms demanded by international creditors.
Lebanon’s divided political elite usually agrees on a consensus candidate before any successful parliamentary vote is held.
Aoun, who will turn 61 on Friday, appears to have the backing of the United States and key regional player Saudi Arabia.
US, Saudi and French envoys have visited Beirut to increase pressure in the run-up to the vote.
Pope Francis on Thursday expressed hope that Lebanon could “possess the necessary institutional stability... to address the grave economic and social situation.”
Several lawmakers have objected to what they see as foreign interference in the vote.
In protest, some rendered their ballot void by voting for “sovereignty and the constitution,” a reference to the fact that Aoun’s election would also require a constitutional amendment.
Under Lebanon’s constitution, any presidential candidate must have not held high office for at least two years. Aoun is still head of the army, after extending his mandate past his planned retirement.
Critics have accused Hezbollah and allies of scuppering previous votes.
But a full-fledged war between Israel and Hezbollah last autumn dealt heavy blows to the Shiite militant group, including the death of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah in an air strike.
In neighboring Syria, Hezbollah has lost a major ally after militants toppled President Bashar Assad last month.
Under multi-confessional Lebanon’s power-sharing system, the president must be a Maronite Christian. Aoun is Lebanon’s fifth army commander to become president, and the fourth in a row.
Military chiefs too are, by convention, Maronites.
The new president faces daunting challenges, with the truce to oversee on the Israeli border and bomb-damaged neighborhoods in the south, the east and the capital to rebuild.
Since 2019, Lebanon has been gripped by the worst financial crisis in its history.
The Hezbollah-Israel war has cost Lebanon more than $5 billion in economic losses, with structural damage amounting to billions more, according to the World Bank.
UN migration agency appeals for $73 million in aid for Syria
- UN’s International Organization for Migration more than doubling an appeal launched last month for Syria
- The Geneva-based agency said it was working to reestablish its presence inside Syria
GENEVA: The UN migration agency on Thursday expanded an aid appeal for Syria to over $73 million, as the country transitions after years of civil war and decades of dictatorship.
The United Nations’ International Organization for Migration said it was more than doubling an appeal launched last month for Syria, from $30 million to $73.2 million, with the aim of assisting 1.1 million people across Syria over the next six months.
“IOM is committed to helping the people of Syria at this historical moment as the nation recovers from nearly 14 years of conflict,” IOM chief Amy Pope said in a statement.
“IOM will bring our deep experience in humanitarian assistance and recovery to help vulnerable communities across the country as we work with all partners to help build a better future for Syria.”
The Geneva-based agency said it was working to reestablish its presence inside Syria, after exiting Damascus in 2020, building on its experience working there in the preceding two decades, as well as on its cross-border activities in the past decade to bring aid to northwest Syria.
It said it aimed “to provide immediate assistance to the most at-risk and vulnerable communities, including displaced and returning groups, across Syria.”
The requested funds, it added, would be used to provide essential relief items and cash, shelter, protection assistance, water, sanitation, hygiene and health services.
They would also go to providing recovery support to people on the move, including those displaced, or preparing to relocate.
The dramatic political upheaval in Syria after the sudden ousting last month of strongman Bashar Assad after decades of dictatorship has spurred large movements of people.
Half of Syria’s population were forced from their homes during nearly 14 years of civil war, with millions fleeing the country and millions more displaced internally.
The UN refugee agency has said it expects around one million people to return to the country in the first half of this year.
And by the end of 2024, the UN humanitarian agency had already recorded the returns of nearly 500,000 people who had been internally displaced inside Syria, IOM pointed out.
