Realistic postwar Gaza scenarios prove elusive as Israel-Hamas war intensifies

Palestinians fleeing Gaza City walk amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Hamas. (AFP)
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Updated 11 November 2023
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Realistic postwar Gaza scenarios prove elusive as Israel-Hamas war intensifies

  • Anthony Blinken, the US secretary of state, has said neither Israel nor Hamas should be left to run Gaza
  • The Palestinian Authority has indicated it is willing to govern if Washington commits to the two-state solution

LONDON: Speculation about Gaza’s post-conflict future has been rife in recent weeks, ranging from suggestions of a permanent Israeli takeover and the expulsion of the Palestinian population to a possible Arab-led peacekeeping force that would hand control to the Palestinian Authority.

Israel launched its military campaign to destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip after the Palestinian militant group mounted its cross-border attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,400 and taking around 240 people hostage.

Hamas has been the de facto governing body in the Gaza Strip since 2007, when it ousted the Palestinian Authority from power. Primarily in Gaza, Hamas also maintains a presence in the West Bank, Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, and has a political office in Doha and a representation office in Tehran.




Palestinians pray near the bodies of members of the Hijazi family, killed in Israeli strikes in Rafah. (AFP)

After initial indications that Israel planned to fully occupy the Gaza Strip once Hamas had been unseated by the Israeli Defense Forces’ ongoing ground operation, the government since appears to have backtracked, likely under pressure from Washington.

Speaking to Fox News on Thursday night, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, played down the notion of an occupation, instead stressing the aim was to “demilitarize, deradicalize, and rebuild” the Gaza Strip.

His comments were a stark departure from just three days earlier when Netanyahu indicated occupation was, indeed, the aim, telling ABC News that Israel would have “overall security responsibility … for an indefinite period” in Gaza.

The apparent U-turn followed a strong rebuke from Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, over the prospect of an Israeli occupation, with the senior diplomat telling reporters after G7 talks in Japan on Wednesday that neither Israel nor Hamas could be left to run Gaza.

During his Fox News interview, Netanyahu said: “We don’t seek to govern Gaza, we don’t seek to occupy it.” Instead he said Israel would have to find a “civilian government” to manage the territory.




Israeli soldiers in the northern Gaza Strip. (Reuters)

Yossi Mekelberg, professor of international relations and associate fellow of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) Program at London’s Chatham House, believes such uncertainty reflects the manner in which the conflict has been playing out more generally.

“You have to remember that this war was not planned by Israel; it started out of surprise. So, it is not surprising there is uncertainty over what comes next,” Mekelberg told Arab News.

“There are some right wingers in Israel who want to take Gaza and build settlements. In the Middle East I would never say never about anything, but I am not certain this is the intention. Settlements are very hard to remove and Blinken was clear over what would be tolerated.”

Indeed, US red lines are not limited to the question of occupation. As members of the Knesset pushed hard on the notion of allowing settlements in the West Bank to expand into Gaza, Blinken was clear there was to be “no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, not now, not after the war.”




An overview of Beit Hanoun in Gaza Strip on October 21, 2023. (AFP/MAXAR)

Such forthright opposition to the removal of Palestinians from Gaza was welcomed by Mekelberg, but he acknowledged that the impact of these words was as indeterminate as Gaza’s fate.

“Whether or not Blinken’s comments are taken seriously in Israel or not is dependent on how much the Israeli government thinks the US really believes it or not,” he said.

“The US needs to make sure that this is its policy. Not only because it serves the US but because it serves Israel.”

Pushback from the US, for the time being at least, appears to be administration-wide. Blinken’s statement followed one issued on Tuesday by John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, who stressed that President Joe Biden did not believe an occupation of Gaza was the “right thing to do.”

On the potential for an occupation, Dr. Ziad Asali, president of the non-profit American Task Force on Palestine, is circumspect. While Israel has “no benefit” in occupying Gaza, Asali believes it is still “likely to gain whatever it can in the interim.”

Asali was equally less certain over the longevity of the status quo, even after Blinken stressed on Wednesday that the current Hamas-Israel binary in Gaza could not be allowed to continue.

“Israel can barely manage the Palestinians presently under its control,” he told Arab News. “It is also now likely to face new immediate challenges that cannot be solved by military force alone. Judging by past experience, I suspect that the status quo could endure longer than people think.”

As for Israel “finding” a new civilian government, Mekelberg said it was “obvious” that there would be no place for Hamas in a post-conflict Gaza. Equally, though, he stressed the need for “parties that represent the population,” if the ultimate aim was to avoid a repeat of the Oct. 7 attacks.

“Both Gaza and the West Bank need to be governed by the same body,” he said. “Being split does not help anybody, and it perpetuates the situation. Now, we know that it will not be Hamas, as, Iran and maybe Qatar aside … no one will engage with them.

“So, what you need is a party that represents the Palestinians. Who that is remains uncertain and, in part, will depend on how the fighting is brought to a close.”




Orheen Al-Dayah, who was injured in an Israeli strike, has her wound stitched without anesthetic due to a dearth of the medication, at Al Shifa hospital in Gaza City. (Reuters)

Solutions beyond an Israeli occupation have included installing the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority. But given that Fatah was voted out by Palestinians in favor of Hamas in the 2006 legislative elections in the occupied territories, the legitimacy of Palestinian Authority’s rule remains in question. Furthermore, as Mekelberg put it bluntly, “they are not in the state to take over.”

The Palestinian Authority appears to think differently, but with an important caveat.

In a recent interview with the New York Times, Hussein Al-Sheikh, secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization, said that were Washington to commit to a “full-fledged two-state solution,” the Palestinian Authority would be willing to take on the role of governing post-war Gaza.

Al-Sheikh said this would be dependent upon the US forcing Israel to abide by such an agreement — a scenario he believes the Biden administration is “capable” of achieving.

He is not alone in sensing an opportunity to renew efforts toward the two-state solution. Ehud Barak, the former Israeli prime minister, has also thrown his support behind the need to revive this initiative.

“I think there is a need in Israel, under the heaviest, most difficult conditions, never to lose sight of the objective,” Barak told TIME magazine this week.

“The right way is to look to the two-state solution, not because of justice to the Palestinians, which is not the uppermost on my priorities, but because we have a compelling imperative to disengage from the Palestinians to protect our own security, our own future, our own identity.”




Fatah's Azzam Al-Ahmad (R) and Saleh Al-Aruri (L) of Hamas signed in 2017 a reconciliation deal at the Egyptian intelligence services headquarters in Cairo. (AFP/File)

Who precisely would serve as a unifying leader capable of bridging divisions among Palestinians remains an open question, although commentators have suggested someone of the stature of Salam Fayyad, the former Palestinian Authority prime minister.

In a recent tweet, Asali suggested that Marwan Barghouti, the jailed leader of the First and Second Intifadas, would be a suitably trusted candidate for the presidency of a unified Palestinian state should Israel agree to his release as part of a hostage exchange deal.

Beyond restoring the Palestinian Authority to power in Gaza, there have also been calls for an international peacekeeping force, an idea which has received some support from the US, with Kirby telling reporters aboard Air Force One on Wednesday that the administration was discussing what post-conflict Gaza should look like.

“If that means some sort of international presence, then that’s something we’re talking about,” he said, adding that there were “no plans or intentions” for US forces to be involved.

Asali said there is little appetite in Washington for the US to find itself “in another Middle East mess” that will demand more of the US president (Joe Biden) than he can deliver in an election year, hinting that a regional force may be required.
“Gaza and its leaders will soon be facing a huge humanitarian problem that will need to be solved by outsiders. The providers of that help would have more influence on Gaza than anyone else,” he said.
“But I do not believe the Middle East has the kind of leaders who would not accept the responsibility of strategic decisions about the Palestinian issue or of the present conundrum in Gaza.”




A man rests atop a row of freshly dug graves in a cemetary in Rafah. (AFP)

He was not alone in this view. One touted contender has been Egypt, but Mekelberg says officials in Cairo “do not want to do it.” While he “hopes it will be a regional grouping,” he suspects it will need to be “international,” warning that there will be significant work to do.

“The first thing that whoever comes in needs to do is stabilize security and get infrastructure to a level where they can make sure enough aid is entering to provide what humans need,” said Mekelberg.

“After that, they will need to look at building bodies, and reconstructing the necessary institutions to run a state.”


Guardian Council in Iran approves law to end cooperation with nuclear watchdog

Updated 10 sec ago
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Guardian Council in Iran approves law to end cooperation with nuclear watchdog

  • Mystery surrounds whereabouts of Tehran’s stockpile of enriched uranium

TEHRAN: Iran’s powerful Guardian Council on Thursday approved legislation that would suspend Tehran’s cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

The proposed suspension, which will now be submitted to President Masoud Pezeshkian for final ratification, would “ensure full respect for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran ... especially with regard to uranium enrichment,” spokesman Hadi Tahan Nazif said.

The watchdog passed a resolution two weeks ago accusing Iran of non-compliance with its nuclear obligations. A suspension of cooperation with the agency would deny UN inspectors access to Iran’s uranium enrichment operations at Fordow, Isfan and Natanz, which were attacked in US bombing raids last Sunday.

Meanwhile confusion continued to surround the location of Iran’s stockpile of about 400 kg of highy enriched uranium. Satellite images from before Sunday’s attacks showed a long line of vehicles outside the Fordow plant. Some experts believe Iran used the convoy to move the uranium and other nuclear components, and is hiding them elsewhere.

However, US President Donald Trump and his Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth both insisted on Thursday that the stockpile at Fordow had been destroyed. “The cars and small trucks at the site were those of concrete workers trying to cover up the top of the shafts. Nothing was taken out,” Trump said. Hegseth said: “I’m not aware of any intelligence that I’ve reviewed that says things were not where they were supposed to be.”


Syrian architect uses drone footage to help rebuild hometown

Updated 26 June 2025
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Syrian architect uses drone footage to help rebuild hometown

TAL MARDIKH, Syria: Syrian architect Abdel Aziz Al-Mohammed could barely recognize his war-ravaged village when he returned after years away. Now, his meticulous documentation of the damage, taken using a drone, helps to facilitate its rebuilding.

“When I first came back, I was shocked by the extent of the destruction,” said Mohammed, 34.

Walking through his devastated village of Tal Mardikh, in Syria’s northwestern Idlib province, he said he could not recognize “anything, I couldn’t even find my parents’ home.”

Nearly half of Tal Mardikh’s 1,500 homes have been destroyed and the rest damaged, mainly due to bombardment by the former Syrian army.

Mohammed, who in 2019 fled the bombardment to near the Turkish border, first returned days after a militant offensive toppled longtime ruler Bashar Assad in December.

The architect, now based in Idlib city, had documented the details of Tal Mardikh’s houses and streets before fleeing and later used his drone to document the destruction.

When he returned, he spent two weeks surveying the area, visiting homes, and creating an interactive map that detailed the conditions of each house. “We entered homes in fear, not knowing what was inside, as the regime controlled the area for five years,” he said.

Under the blazing sun, Mohammed watched as workers restored a house in Tal Mardikh, which adjoins the archeological site of Ebla, the seat of one of the Syrian Arab Republic’s earliest kingdoms.

His documentation of the village helped gain support from Shafak, a nongovernmental organization which agreed to fund the reconstruction and rehabilitation of 434 out of 800 damaged homes in Tal Mardikh.

The work is expected to be completed in August and includes the restoration of two wells and sanitation networks, at a cost exceeding $1 million.


Instagram influencer Motaz Azaiza brings the Gaza story to US

Updated 26 June 2025
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Instagram influencer Motaz Azaiza brings the Gaza story to US

PHILADELPHIA: At a church in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, hundreds of people gathered recently for a weeknight charity fundraiser hosted by a celebrity guest.

The venue was not announced in advance due to security concerns, and attendance cost at least $60 a pop — with some spending $1,000 to get a photo with the host.

Yet, the event was not a gala hosted by a movie star or famed politician, but by a photojournalist: Gaza native Motaz Azaiza, whose images of the Israeli assault following the Oct. 7, 2023, attack launched him to international recognition.

Wearing a black T-shirt, jeans, sneakers, and gold-framed glasses, the 26-year-old boasts nearly 17 million followers on Instagram for his images from the war in Gaza.

“I wish you had known me without the genocide,” Azaiza told the crowd, his voice faltering.

Before the war, Azaiza was a relatively unknown figure, posting photos from his daily life in Deir Al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, to his roughly 25,000 Instagram followers at the time.

But as soon as the first strikes from Israel hit Gaza, he became a war photographer by virtue of circumstance, and his wartime posts soon went viral.

“As a photojournalist, I can’t watch this like anyone else, I’m from there, this is my home,” Azaiza said.

After surviving 108 days of Israeli bombardment, Azaiza managed to escape Gaza via Egypt, and he has since become an ambassador of sorts for the Palestinian territory, sharing the story of his people as the conflict rages on.

“Every time you feel like you regret leaving, but then you lose a friend, you lose a family, you say, OK, I saved my life,” Azaiza said.

Before the war, Azaiza had been hired to manage the online content for the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East, or UNRWA, the humanitarian agency accused by Israel of providing cover for militants.

This month, he is touring the US to raise money for UNRWA USA, a nonprofit that collects funding for the agency.

“I can’t handle this much of fame ... it’s a real big responsibility,” Azaiza said from the fundraiser in Philadelphia.

“This is not me ... I’m waiting for the genocide to stop. I want to go back to Gaza, continue my work capturing pictures,” he added.

At one point, he blended into the crowd, posing for a selfie before shaking hands with the donors.

At the fundraiser, a UNRWA USA official solicited donations.

“Is there someone who wants to give $20,000? I would like to have $20,000. Nobody? Is there someone who wants to give $10,000? I would like to have $10,000,” the official calls out.

Once the call lowered to $5,000, five hands raised, and even more went up when asked for donations of $2,000 and $1,000.

One of the donors, Nabeel Sarwar, said Azaiza’s photographs “humanize” the people in Gaza.

“When you see a picture, when you see a child, you relate to that child, you relate to the body language, you relate to the dust on their face, the hunger, the sadness on their face,” Sarwar said.

“I think it’s those pictures that really brought home the real tragedy of what’s going on in Gaza.”

Veronica Murgulescu, a 25-year-old medical student from Philadelphia, concurred.

“I think that people like Motaz and other Gaza journalists have really struck a chord with us, because you can sense the authenticity,” she said.

“The mainstream media that we have here in the US, at least, and in the West, lacks authenticity,” she added.

Sahar Khamis, a communications professor at the University of Maryland who specializes in Arab and Muslim media in the Middle East, said Gazan journalists like Azaiza who have become social media influencers “reshape public opinion, especially among youth, not just in the Arab world, not just in the Middle East, but globally and internationally, including in the US.”

“The visuals are very, very important and very powerful and very compelling ... as we know in journalism, that one picture equals a thousand words.

“And in the case of war and conflict, it can equal a million words, because you can tell through these short videos and short images and photos a lot of things that you cannot say in a whole essay.”


Musk calls Lebanese president as Starlink seeks license

Updated 26 June 2025
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Musk calls Lebanese president as Starlink seeks license

  • Musk called Aoun and “expressed his interest in Lebanon and its telecommunications and Internet sectors“
  • Aoun invited Musk to visit Lebanon

BEIRUT: Billionaire businessman Elon Musk and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun spoke by phone to discuss making elements of Musk’s sprawling business empire available in Lebanon, a statement from Aoun’s office said on Thursday.

The statement said Musk called Aoun and “expressed his interest in Lebanon and its telecommunications and Internet sectors.”

Aoun invited Musk to visit Lebanon and said he was open to having Musk’s companies present in the country, which ranks among the countries with the lowest Internet speeds.

The call came just weeks after Aoun and other top Lebanese officials met with Starlink’s Global Director of Licensing and Development, Sam Turner, in Beirut for talks on providing satellite Internet services in Lebanon. US ambassador Lisa Johnson was pictured attending those meetings.

The negotiations have prompted some pushback in Lebanon. Internet access in the country has so far been operated exclusively by state-owned companies and their affiliates, who are lobbying the government not to license Starlink.

Starlink recently received licenses to operate in India and Lesotho.


Greece seeks cooperation with Libya to stop migration, PM says

Updated 26 June 2025
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Greece seeks cooperation with Libya to stop migration, PM says

  • Greece said it would deploy two frigates and one more vessel off Libya’s territorial waters to deter migrants from reaching its southern islands
  • Mitsotakis said authorities in Libya should cooperate with Greece to stop migrants

BRUSSELS: Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis said on Thursday that Libya should cooperate with Greece and Europe to help halt a surge in migration flows from the north African state.

Seaborne arrivals of migrants in Europe from the north of Africa, including war-torn Sudan, and the Middle East have spiked in recent months.

Greece said on Monday it would deploy two frigates and one more vessel off Libya’s territorial waters to deter migrants from reaching its southern islands of Crete and Gavdos.

“I will inform my colleagues about the significant increase in the number of people from eastern Libya and ask for the support of the European Commission so that the issue can be addressed immediately,” Mitsotakis said ahead of an European Union summit in Brussels that began on Thursday.

Mitsotakis said authorities in Libya should cooperate with Greece to stop migrants sailing from there or turn them back before they exit Libyan territorial waters.

He added that the EU’s migration commissioner and ministers from Italy, Greece and Malta would travel to Libya early in July to discuss the issue.

Law and order has been weak in Libya since a 2011 uprising that toppled dictator Muammar Qaddafi, with the country divided by factional conflict into eastern and western sections for over a decade.