Realistic postwar Gaza scenarios prove elusive as Israel-Hamas war intensifies

Palestinians fleeing Gaza City walk amid the ongoing battles between Israel and Hamas. (AFP)
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Updated 11 November 2023
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Realistic postwar Gaza scenarios prove elusive as Israel-Hamas war intensifies

  • Anthony Blinken, the US secretary of state, has said neither Israel nor Hamas should be left to run Gaza
  • The Palestinian Authority has indicated it is willing to govern if Washington commits to the two-state solution

LONDON: Speculation about Gaza’s post-conflict future has been rife in recent weeks, ranging from suggestions of a permanent Israeli takeover and the expulsion of the Palestinian population to a possible Arab-led peacekeeping force that would hand control to the Palestinian Authority.

Israel launched its military campaign to destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip after the Palestinian militant group mounted its cross-border attack on southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,400 and taking around 240 people hostage.

Hamas has been the de facto governing body in the Gaza Strip since 2007, when it ousted the Palestinian Authority from power. Primarily in Gaza, Hamas also maintains a presence in the West Bank, Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, and has a political office in Doha and a representation office in Tehran.




Palestinians pray near the bodies of members of the Hijazi family, killed in Israeli strikes in Rafah. (AFP)

After initial indications that Israel planned to fully occupy the Gaza Strip once Hamas had been unseated by the Israeli Defense Forces’ ongoing ground operation, the government since appears to have backtracked, likely under pressure from Washington.

Speaking to Fox News on Thursday night, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, played down the notion of an occupation, instead stressing the aim was to “demilitarize, deradicalize, and rebuild” the Gaza Strip.

His comments were a stark departure from just three days earlier when Netanyahu indicated occupation was, indeed, the aim, telling ABC News that Israel would have “overall security responsibility … for an indefinite period” in Gaza.

The apparent U-turn followed a strong rebuke from Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, over the prospect of an Israeli occupation, with the senior diplomat telling reporters after G7 talks in Japan on Wednesday that neither Israel nor Hamas could be left to run Gaza.

During his Fox News interview, Netanyahu said: “We don’t seek to govern Gaza, we don’t seek to occupy it.” Instead he said Israel would have to find a “civilian government” to manage the territory.




Israeli soldiers in the northern Gaza Strip. (Reuters)

Yossi Mekelberg, professor of international relations and associate fellow of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) Program at London’s Chatham House, believes such uncertainty reflects the manner in which the conflict has been playing out more generally.

“You have to remember that this war was not planned by Israel; it started out of surprise. So, it is not surprising there is uncertainty over what comes next,” Mekelberg told Arab News.

“There are some right wingers in Israel who want to take Gaza and build settlements. In the Middle East I would never say never about anything, but I am not certain this is the intention. Settlements are very hard to remove and Blinken was clear over what would be tolerated.”

Indeed, US red lines are not limited to the question of occupation. As members of the Knesset pushed hard on the notion of allowing settlements in the West Bank to expand into Gaza, Blinken was clear there was to be “no forcible displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, not now, not after the war.”




An overview of Beit Hanoun in Gaza Strip on October 21, 2023. (AFP/MAXAR)

Such forthright opposition to the removal of Palestinians from Gaza was welcomed by Mekelberg, but he acknowledged that the impact of these words was as indeterminate as Gaza’s fate.

“Whether or not Blinken’s comments are taken seriously in Israel or not is dependent on how much the Israeli government thinks the US really believes it or not,” he said.

“The US needs to make sure that this is its policy. Not only because it serves the US but because it serves Israel.”

Pushback from the US, for the time being at least, appears to be administration-wide. Blinken’s statement followed one issued on Tuesday by John Kirby, the White House national security spokesperson, who stressed that President Joe Biden did not believe an occupation of Gaza was the “right thing to do.”

On the potential for an occupation, Dr. Ziad Asali, president of the non-profit American Task Force on Palestine, is circumspect. While Israel has “no benefit” in occupying Gaza, Asali believes it is still “likely to gain whatever it can in the interim.”

Asali was equally less certain over the longevity of the status quo, even after Blinken stressed on Wednesday that the current Hamas-Israel binary in Gaza could not be allowed to continue.

“Israel can barely manage the Palestinians presently under its control,” he told Arab News. “It is also now likely to face new immediate challenges that cannot be solved by military force alone. Judging by past experience, I suspect that the status quo could endure longer than people think.”

As for Israel “finding” a new civilian government, Mekelberg said it was “obvious” that there would be no place for Hamas in a post-conflict Gaza. Equally, though, he stressed the need for “parties that represent the population,” if the ultimate aim was to avoid a repeat of the Oct. 7 attacks.

“Both Gaza and the West Bank need to be governed by the same body,” he said. “Being split does not help anybody, and it perpetuates the situation. Now, we know that it will not be Hamas, as, Iran and maybe Qatar aside … no one will engage with them.

“So, what you need is a party that represents the Palestinians. Who that is remains uncertain and, in part, will depend on how the fighting is brought to a close.”




Orheen Al-Dayah, who was injured in an Israeli strike, has her wound stitched without anesthetic due to a dearth of the medication, at Al Shifa hospital in Gaza City. (Reuters)

Solutions beyond an Israeli occupation have included installing the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority. But given that Fatah was voted out by Palestinians in favor of Hamas in the 2006 legislative elections in the occupied territories, the legitimacy of Palestinian Authority’s rule remains in question. Furthermore, as Mekelberg put it bluntly, “they are not in the state to take over.”

The Palestinian Authority appears to think differently, but with an important caveat.

In a recent interview with the New York Times, Hussein Al-Sheikh, secretary-general of the Palestine Liberation Organization, said that were Washington to commit to a “full-fledged two-state solution,” the Palestinian Authority would be willing to take on the role of governing post-war Gaza.

Al-Sheikh said this would be dependent upon the US forcing Israel to abide by such an agreement — a scenario he believes the Biden administration is “capable” of achieving.

He is not alone in sensing an opportunity to renew efforts toward the two-state solution. Ehud Barak, the former Israeli prime minister, has also thrown his support behind the need to revive this initiative.

“I think there is a need in Israel, under the heaviest, most difficult conditions, never to lose sight of the objective,” Barak told TIME magazine this week.

“The right way is to look to the two-state solution, not because of justice to the Palestinians, which is not the uppermost on my priorities, but because we have a compelling imperative to disengage from the Palestinians to protect our own security, our own future, our own identity.”




Fatah's Azzam Al-Ahmad (R) and Saleh Al-Aruri (L) of Hamas signed in 2017 a reconciliation deal at the Egyptian intelligence services headquarters in Cairo. (AFP/File)

Who precisely would serve as a unifying leader capable of bridging divisions among Palestinians remains an open question, although commentators have suggested someone of the stature of Salam Fayyad, the former Palestinian Authority prime minister.

In a recent tweet, Asali suggested that Marwan Barghouti, the jailed leader of the First and Second Intifadas, would be a suitably trusted candidate for the presidency of a unified Palestinian state should Israel agree to his release as part of a hostage exchange deal.

Beyond restoring the Palestinian Authority to power in Gaza, there have also been calls for an international peacekeeping force, an idea which has received some support from the US, with Kirby telling reporters aboard Air Force One on Wednesday that the administration was discussing what post-conflict Gaza should look like.

“If that means some sort of international presence, then that’s something we’re talking about,” he said, adding that there were “no plans or intentions” for US forces to be involved.

Asali said there is little appetite in Washington for the US to find itself “in another Middle East mess” that will demand more of the US president (Joe Biden) than he can deliver in an election year, hinting that a regional force may be required.
“Gaza and its leaders will soon be facing a huge humanitarian problem that will need to be solved by outsiders. The providers of that help would have more influence on Gaza than anyone else,” he said.
“But I do not believe the Middle East has the kind of leaders who would not accept the responsibility of strategic decisions about the Palestinian issue or of the present conundrum in Gaza.”




A man rests atop a row of freshly dug graves in a cemetary in Rafah. (AFP)

He was not alone in this view. One touted contender has been Egypt, but Mekelberg says officials in Cairo “do not want to do it.” While he “hopes it will be a regional grouping,” he suspects it will need to be “international,” warning that there will be significant work to do.

“The first thing that whoever comes in needs to do is stabilize security and get infrastructure to a level where they can make sure enough aid is entering to provide what humans need,” said Mekelberg.

“After that, they will need to look at building bodies, and reconstructing the necessary institutions to run a state.”


Jordan pledges continued support for Lebanon’s efforts to preserve security, stability, sovereignty

King Abdullah of Jordan greets Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in Amman on Tuesday. (Supplied)
Updated 10 June 2025
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Jordan pledges continued support for Lebanon’s efforts to preserve security, stability, sovereignty

  • President Joseph Aoun holds talks with King Abdullah in Amman, thanks him for Jordanian support of Lebanese army

BEIRUT: During talks in Amman on Tuesday with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, King Abdullah of Jordan reaffirmed his country’s “support to Lebanon in its efforts to preserve its security, stability, sovereignty and territorial unity.”

The two leaders also emphasized “the importance of preserving security and stability in Syria, which will help facilitate the voluntary and safe return of Syrian refugees” to their home country.

Aoun praised Jordan for the role it has played, under the leadership of King Abdullah, “in standing with Lebanon and its people, and providing support to the Lebanese army.”

He also highlighted the importance of “enhancing security and defense cooperation between both countries, particularly in the field of combating terrorism and smuggling.”

In a joint statement, King Abdullah and Aoun stressed “the need to immediately reinstate the ceasefire in Gaza, and ensure adequate humanitarian aid reaches all areas” of the territory. They rejected any plans to displace Palestinians, and urged Arab states and the wider international community to step up efforts to reach a just and comprehensive resolution to the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, based on a two-state solution.

The king also warned of “the danger of the unprecedented escalations and violence targeting Palestinians in the West Bank, and Muslim and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem.”

More broadly, the two leaders said it was important to maintaining coordination and consultation on all issues of mutual interest.


UN peacekeepers say troops attacked by individuals in south Lebanon

Updated 10 June 2025
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UN peacekeepers say troops attacked by individuals in south Lebanon

  • UN Interim Forces in Lebanon sits on a five-member committee to supervise the ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah
  • Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he 'strongly condemns the repeated attacks' on UNIFIL forces in south Lebanon

BEIRUT: United Nations peacekeepers said rock-throwing individuals confronted them during a patrol on Tuesday in south Lebanon, calling repeated targeting of their troops “unacceptable.”
The UN Interim Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL), deployed since 1978 to separate Lebanon and Israel, sits on a five-member committee to supervise the ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah.
In a statement, UNIFIL said peacekeepers conducting “a planned patrol” coordinated with the Lebanese army were “confronted by a group of individuals in civilian clothing in the vicinity of Hallusiyat Al-Tahta, in southern Lebanon.”
“The group attempted to obstruct the patrol using aggressive means, including throwing stones at the peacekeepers,” the statement read, adding that “one peacekeeper was struck” but no injuries were reported.
The situation was defused when the Lebanese army intervened, allowing the peacekeeping force to continue its patrol.
“It is unacceptable that UNIFIL peacekeepers continue to be targeted,” the statement added.
UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti told AFP a Finnish soldier was slapped during the confrontation.
A witness, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation, said an altercation ensued between locals and the Lebanese army, who were searching for the man who slapped the peacekeeper.
One man opposing the army was injured and hospitalized, the witness said.
In a statement, Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he “strongly condemns the repeated attacks” on UNIFIL forces and called for the attackers to be stopped and held accountable.
There have been several confrontations between people in south Lebanon, where Hezbollah holds sway, and UN peacekeepers in recent weeks.
Confrontations are typically defused by the Lebanese army and rarely escalate.
In December 2022, an Irish peacekeeper was killed in a shooting at a UN armored vehicle in the south. Hezbollah surrendered a man accused of the crime, but he was released around a year later.
The November ceasefire agreement, which sought to end over a year of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, states that only Lebanese troops and UN peacekeepers may be deployed in the country’s south.
Israel is supposed to have fully withdrawn its troops from Lebanon according to the deal, but has remained in five positions it deems strategic and has repeatedly bombed the country.


UK will sanction Israel ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, Times reports

Britain and other international allies will formally sanction far-right Israeli ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
Updated 10 June 2025
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UK will sanction Israel ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, Times reports

  • London will join Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other nations in freezing assets and imposing travel bans on Ben-Gvir — a West Bank settler — and Smotrich

LONDON: Britain and other international allies will formally sanction two far-right Israeli ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, following their conduct over the war in Gaza, the Times reported on Tuesday.
London will join Canada, Australia, New Zealand and other nations in freezing the assets and imposing travel bans on Israel’s national security minister Ben-Gvir — a West Bank settler — and finance minister Smotrich.
Britain’s foreign office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.
Britain, like other European countries, has been ramping up the pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to end the blockade on aid into Gaza, where international experts have warned that famine is imminent.
London last month suspended free trade talks with Israel for pursuing “egregious policies” in the occupied West Bank and Gaza, summoned its ambassador, and announced further sanctions against West Bank settlers.
Foreign minister David Lammy, who called Israel’s recent offensive “a dark new phase in this conflict,” has previously condemned comments by Smotrich on the possible cleansing and destruction of Gaza and relocation of its residents to third countries.


Several areas south of Sudan capital at risk of famine, says World Food Programme

Updated 10 June 2025
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Several areas south of Sudan capital at risk of famine, says World Food Programme

  • Several areas south of the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, are at risk of famine, the World Food Programme

GENEVA, June 10 : Several areas south of the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, are at risk of famine, the World Food Programme said on Tuesday, with need on the ground outstripping resources amidst a funding shortfall.
“The level of hunger and destitution and desperation that was found (is) severe and confirmed the risk of famine in those areas,” Laurent Bukera, WFP Country Director in Sudan, told reporters in Geneva via video link from Port Sudan. 


Abbas tells Macron he supports demilitarization of Hamas

Updated 10 June 2025
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Abbas tells Macron he supports demilitarization of Hamas

PARIS: Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas has said that Hamas “must hand over its weapons” and called for the deployment of international forces to protect “the Palestinian people,” France announced on Tuesday.
In a letter addressed on Monday to French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who this month will co-chair a conference on a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinians, Abbas outlined the main steps that he thinks must be taken to end the war in Gaza and achieve peace in the Middle East.
“Hamas will no longer rule Gaza and must hand over its weapons and military capabilities to the Palestinian Security Forces,” wrote Abbas.
He said he was “ready to invite Arab and international forces to be deployed as part of a stabilization/protection mission with a (UN) Security Council mandate.”
The conference at UN headquarters later this month will aim to resurrect the idea of a two-state solution — Israel currently controls large parts of the Palestinian territories.
“We are ready to conclude within a clear and binding timeline, and with international support, supervision and guarantees, a peace agreement that ends the Israeli occupation and resolves all outstanding and final status issues,” Abbas wrote.
“Hamas has to immediately release all hostages and captives,” Abbas added.
In a statement, the Elysee Palace welcomed “concrete and unprecedented commitments, demonstrating a real willingness to move toward the implementation of the two-state solution.”
Macron has said he is “determined” to recognize a Palestinian state, but also set out several conditions, including the “demilitarization” of Hamas.
In his letter, Abbas reaffirmed his commitment to reform the Palestinian Authority and confirmed his intention to hold presidential and general elections “within a year” under international auspices.
“The Palestinian State should be the sole provider of security on its territory, but has no intention to be a militarised State.”
France has long championed a two-state solution, including after the October 7, 2023 attack by Palestinian militants Hamas on Israel.
But formal recognition by Paris of a Palestinian state would mark a major policy shift and risk antagonizing Israel, which insists that such moves by foreign states are premature.