Could the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza be Palestine’s ‘black swan’ moment?

A child carrying a tray of food walks among the ruins of the West Bank city of Kalkilya in the aftermath of the 1967 Six-Day War. (Getty Images)
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Updated 15 November 2023
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Could the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza be Palestine’s ‘black swan’ moment?

  • Buried in the rubble of the world’s longest-running conflict may be clues as to how the Gaza war might end
  • Israeli scholar Ahron Bregman believes the war may yet reset the dial, ushering in a two-state solution

LONDON: As the missiles and bombs continue to rain down on Gaza, reducing entire neighborhoods to wastelands and pushing the death toll to ever more obscene heights, buried in the rubble of the bloody history of the world’s longest-running war may be found clues as to how the current conflict might end and the impact it might have on the political landscape of the Middle East.

That, at least, is the view of UK-based Israeli historian and political scientist Dr. Ahron Bregman.

The author of half a dozen books about Israel’s seemingly never-ending wars, he believes there is a chance that in this latest round of the Israeli-Palestinian saga something significant might be stirring — a “black swan” moment, a metaphor used by political theorists and financial analysts alike to describe a rare, unexpected and unpredictable event that has dramatic, unforeseen consequences.




Smoke billows during the Israeli military bombardment of the northern Gaza Strip on November 14, 2023. (AFP)

Israel has been at war for 75 years, ever since David Ben-Gurion, the Polish-born head of the World Zionist Organization, declared the foundation of the state on May 14, 1948, the day the British mandate for Palestine came to an end.

For its own political reasons, Britain had championed the foundation of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine since 1917, when its government issued the Balfour Declaration, pledging its support for “a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine.”

But the first voices warning of the inevitable consequences of “dumping down an alien population upon an Arab country,” as one member of the British House of Lords put it in 1920, were raised in Britain.

The harm this would do, said Lord Sydenham in a debate on the Palestine Mandate in the House of Lords on June 21, 1922, “may never be remedied … what we have done is, by concessions, not to the Jewish people but to a Zionist extreme section, to start a running sore in the East, and no one can tell how far that sore will extend.”

To date, it has extended for three-quarters of a century.

The list of conflicts that have flowed from what Lord Sydenham described as “a gross injustice … opposed to the sentiments and wishes of the great majority of the people of Palestine,” is a long one.




Israelis in Nitzan take shelter in a large concrete pipe after a rocket launch from the Gaza Strip on November 15, 2012. (Getty Images)

The opening act in the long-running tragedy still being played out today was the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, preceded by a civil war between the Arab and Jewish communities and triggered by the outrage in the Arab world at the UN Partition Plan for Palestine.

Adopted by the UN General Assembly on Nov. 29, 1947, this allocated 56 percent of the land to the Jews, even though at that stage there were still twice as many Arabs in Palestine.

Despite attempts by commentators, governments and even some of the players to frame the Palestinian conflagration as a battle between competing religious ideologies, the central theme of all the subsequent conflicts has remained consistent: land.




Egyptian tanks and artillery advancing on the front during the 1948 Arab–Israeli War. (AFP)

As Bregman wrote in his 2010 book “Israel’s Wars — A History Since 1947,” “when viewed from a historical perspective, these separate, short wars can be seen as one continuous conflict where territory ­— first the land of Palestine and then lands seized by Israel in subsequent wars — is the main, though not exclusive, trigger to repeating conflagrations.

“The balance sheet, after more than 60 years of Israeli-Arab conflict, indicates that on the battlefield there has been no clear victor — neither Arab nor Israeli.”

And yet, he believes, despite the untrammeled horror of the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, and Israel’s uncompromising and increasingly widely condemned military response, the current conflict may yet prove to have reset the dial, paving the way, finally, to a two-state solution.

At first glance, this seems counterintuitive. Although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has denied that Israel is planning to reoccupy Gaza, vacated by his predecessor Ariel Sharon almost 20 years ago, this is precisely what hawks in his government have called for.

“There are extreme people in the government who wish for a return to rebuilding the Jewish settlements in Gaza that Ariel Sharon evacuated in 2005,” said Bregman.

But this, he believes, will not be how this current conflict ends.




Rescuers search victims among the rubble of the destroyed buildings Ben Yehuda Street in Jerusalem, on March 1948 at the beginning of the first Jewish-Arab conflict. (AFP)

“Sharon understood that you can’t have 8,000 settlers living among 1.8 million, at the time, hostile people and you can’t now have settlers living among 2.2 million Palestinians, who will be even more hostile after the destruction we are now seeing.

“Besides, any return to the Gaza Strip by Israel would be opposed by the entire international community, mainly the United States, on which Israel is now very dependent.”

For many, the scenes of Palestinians fleeing their homes in Gaza have awoken painful memories of the Nakba, the forceful displacement of more than half the Palestinian population before and during the 1948 Arab-Israeli War.

The fury of the Israeli response to the events of Oct. 7 has also conjured up memories of the 1967 Six-Day War, by the end of which Israel had seized the Golan Heights, the Gaza Strip, the Sinai Peninsula and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, vastly expanding its territory at the expense of hundreds of thousands of displaced Arabs.

But Bregman, a senior teaching fellow in the Department of War Studies at King’s College London who has written extensively about the Arab-Israeli conflict, looks to another episode in that long saga for a clue to how events might now play out.




Israeli tanks advancing through difficult hilly terrain on June 10, 1967 in the Golan heights. (AFP)

Fifty years ago, in October 1973, a surprise attack was unleashed on Israel by a coalition of Arab states led by Egypt, motivated by a desire to recover the land seized by Israel in 1967.

The Ramadan War, or Yom Kippur War, ended in victory for an Israel heavily backed by American arms, but it set in motion a chain of events that changed the political and territorial landscape.

“Before the 1973 war, Egypt’s President Anwar Sadat offered the Israelis a peace proposal: Withdraw in the Sinai, not completely, but by 35 km, and we will embark on a peace process,” said Bregman.

The proposal was rejected by Golda Meir, the Israeli prime minister, and Sadat went to war.

“And then something very interesting happened. After the war, the withdrawal sought by Sadat was exactly what happened. In 1974, the Israelis withdrew in the Sinai, exactly 35 kilometers.”




A building destroyed by an Israeli bombing in Damascus on October 10, 1973 during the 1973 Arab–Israeli War. (AFP)

This in turn led to the Camp David Accords in 1978 and the signing the following year of the historic peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, which became the first Arab state to officially recognize Israel and won back the entire Sinai Peninsula.

The treaty, which earned Sadat and Menachem Begin, then Israel’s prime minister, the Nobel Peace Prize, was widely condemned in the Arab world at the time as a betrayal of the Palestinians and led to Sadat’s assassination in 1981.

“But after the 1973 war, the Israelis were willing to do things they weren’t prepared to do before, because of the war,” said Bregman.

“This was a black swan ­— and maybe what we are seeing now will be a black swan as well, which could change everything.”




Egyptian President Anwar Al-Sadat (L) and Israeli Premier Menachem Begin (R), seated between US President Jimmy Carter, sign the historic peace treaty between Israel and Egypt on March 26, 1979. (AFP)

Bregman, who has lived in the UK since 1989, returns regularly to Israel to visit family and is intimately familiar with the country’s military, political and intelligence landscape.

He served in the Israel Defense Forces for six years, taking part as a major in the 1982 Lebanon War, later worked as a parliamentary aide in the Knesset and wrote “The Spy Who Fell to Earth,” the 2016 bestselling book about espionage between Egypt and Israel, later made into a Netflix documentary.

“Do not misunderstand me,” he said. “What happened on Oct. 7 was barbaric, on par with Daesh at the highest point on the scale of evil.

“But if you look at it from a purely military point of view, it was a very successful operation for Hamas. They surprised the Israelis big time. Now, I imagine many Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are angry with them because of the destruction. But in the long term, this will be regarded as a major event in the mythology and history of the Palestinian people — a major event after years of humiliation and Israeli victories.”

The current phase of the conflict, he believes, will end soon, “in a few days, or weeks, because the Americans will stop the Israelis” — Biden will fear losing his election if they continue. But it is in what could happen next that the beating of the wings of the black swan can be heard.




Israeli troops take position in the southern city of Beersheba following an unprecedented attack by Hamas fighters on October 7, 2023. (AFP)

There are several possible outcomes, of which Netanyahu’s declared intention to destroy Hamas completely is one — and, in Bregman’s view, impossible: “Hamas is as much of an idea as it is a group of people.”

But, he says, “if you want to kill an idea, you must put forward a better one, and a better idea for the Palestinians would be — ‘Here, you are going to have your state.’”

Under current circumstances, that seems an extraordinary prospect. But that, said Bregman, is precisely the nature of a “black swan” scenario.

“It’s not nice to say, but the Israelis got a bloody nose and that brings me back to 1973. It was the bloody nose of 1973 that shook up the Israelis and made the Sinai 1 and Sinai 2 agreements happen.”

He speculates that, under US pressure, Israel could facilitate the return of the Palestinian National Authority to Gaza, where it lost control to Hamas in 2006. In this scenario, the aging Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestine president, would be replaced.

“Israel could, for example, do something brave and release from prison Marwan Barghouti,” Bregman said, referring to the Palestinian leader sentenced to life imprisonment in 2002, but who is seen as a potential unifying candidate.




A Palestinian man sits on the debris of collapsed structures destroyed in the Israeli bombardment of Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip on November 10, 2023. (AFP)

Under Barghouti, or someone like him, said Bregman, “you could have the Palestinian Authority ruling the two areas again. Of course, the right in Israel would be very reluctant, because Netanyahu’s entire policy has been ‘divide and rule’ — it was he who wanted to keep Hamas in power and made them powerful.”

But one effect of the Oct. 7 attack, he believes, is going to be a seismic shock that could shake Israel’s political landscape to its foundations.

“After this phase is over, after the return to civilian life of the Israeli army reservists, there are going to be massive demonstrations in Israel, far bigger than anything we’ve seen before,” he said.

“There is so much suppressed anger in Israel right now. I can feel it. The Israelis keep it inside them for now because there’s a war going on, but it will be released.”

That anger has been generated by the failure of the military response to the Hamas attack, the perceived mishandling of the hostage crisis by the government, and the increasing long-term unease over the provocations of the settler movement and repeated incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound by Jewish religious extremists, supported by right-wing ministers including Itamar Ben-Givr, the national security minister.

It was these provocations that were cited by Hamas leader Mohammed Deif as the trigger for the current conflict. On Oct. 11 a Hamas source told Reuters that planning for the attack had begun in May 2021, provoked “by scenes and footage of Israel storming Al-Aqsa Mosque during Ramadan, beating worshippers, attacking them, dragging elderly and young men out of the mosque.”

The demonstrations in Israel, said Bregman, “will be massive, and it will be interesting to see whether Netanyahu will survive, but the current cabinet doesn’t represent the real Israel and the extremists who were allowed into government will probably have to go,” in turn paving the way for a more pragmatic Israeli government and, ultimately, the possibility of a single Palestinian authority responsible once again for both Gaza and the West Bank.

“Then, all of a sudden, you have the basis of a two-state solution, and in my view, this is the end game to which the Americans are now trying to push the Israelis.”




Israeli security forces use a water cannon to disperse demonstrators blocking the entrance of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, in Jerusalem on July 24, 2023, amid a months-long wave of protests against the government’s planned judicial overhaul. (AFP/File)

Bregman concedes that such a historic outcome is not certain but, he believes, would be more palatable to many in Israel than the alternative options, which range from strengthening and deepening the “ring of steel” around Gaza to imposing a West Bank Area B situation, in which Hamas is allowed to continue running civil society but Israel controls security.

Certainly, said Palestinian-American historian Rashid Khalidi, author of “The Iron Cage" and The Hundred Years’ War on Palestine,” a continuation of the status quo cannot be contemplated. 

“If Israel and the US end this war they are collectively waging as they have every previous one — 1982, 2006, 2008-09, 2014, etc. — allowing for no possible political solution involving Palestinian national rights and an end to occupation and settlement … it will be sowing the seeds of another inevitable war,” he said.

On Aug. 11, 1919, British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour, the enthusiastic supporter of Zionism whose declaration of 1917 paved the way for generations of misery, wrote a shocking memo that underscored the British Empire’s contempt for the Arabs of Palestine.

Zionism, he wrote, “be it right or wrong, good or bad, is rooted in age-long traditions, in present needs, in future hopes, of far profounder import than the desires and prejudices of the 700,000 Arabs who now inhabit that ancient land.”

Perhaps now, after almost a century of pain and suffering, the Hamas assault on Israel might prove to be the impetus for Israel and the world finally to recognize that the age-long traditions, present needs, and future hopes of the Arabs of Palestine are of equal importance to those of the Jewish people.

 


In Tunisia, snails inch toward replacing red meat as people turn to cheaper protein

Updated 13 sec ago
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In Tunisia, snails inch toward replacing red meat as people turn to cheaper protein

Snails have been consumed in Tunisia for more than seven millenia
Low in fat and high in iron, calcium and magnesium, snails offer both nutritional value and economic relief

AKOUDA, Tunisia: In fields outside their hometown in central Tunisia, an increasing number of unemployed young men are seeking a new way to make a living, picking snails off of rocks and leaves and collecting them in large plastic bags to take to the local market to be sold.
More and more people, they say, are buying the shelled wanderers as the price of market staples remains high and out of reach for many families.
“They’re profitable, beneficial and quite in demand,” said Karim, a 29-year-old snail seller from the village of Akouda said.
Snails have been consumed in Tunisia for more than seven millenia, according to research published last year in the journal Archaeological and Anthropological Sciences. In today’s world considered mostly a bistro delicacy, they’re again gaining traction in Tunisia as a practical alternative to red meat — a protein-rich substitute that pairs perfectly with salt, spices, and bold seasonings.
The snails are a lifeline for some in Tunisia, where youth unemployment now hovers above 40 percent and inflation remains high, three years after spiking to its highest levels in decades. A lack of opportunity has fueled social discontent throughout the country and, increasingly, migration to Europe.
Low in fat and high in iron, calcium and magnesium, snails offer both nutritional value and economic relief. In a country where unemployment runs high and median wages remain low, they cost about half as much as beef per kilogram and often less when sold by the bowl.
“Snails are better for cooking than lamb. If lamb meat costs 60 dinars ($19.30), a bowl of snails is five dinars ($1.60),” a man named Mohammed said at the Akouda market.
As the price of meat and poultry continues to rise, more Tunisians are turning to affordable, alternative sources of protein. Beyond their economic appeal, these substitutes are also drawing interest for their environmental benefits. Scientists say they offer a more sustainable solution, producing far fewer carbon emissions and avoiding the deforestation linked to traditional livestock farming.
Wahiba Dridi, who serves snails at her restaurant in Tunis, cooks them in a traditional fashion with peppers and spices. She said they were popular throughout this year’s Ramadan, which ended last week. Though Tunisian Muslims traditionally eat red meat at the meals during which they break their daily fasts, a kilogram of snails costs less than 28 Tunisian dinars ($9) compared to beef, which costs 55 dinars per kilogram ($18).
“If people knew the value of snails they would eat them all year long,” Dridi said.

US sending Israel 20,000 assault rifles that Biden had delayed, say sources

Updated 04 April 2025
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US sending Israel 20,000 assault rifles that Biden had delayed, say sources

  • The rifle sale is a small transaction next to the billions of dollars worth of weapons that Washington supplies to Israel
  • The March 6 congressional notification said the US government had taken into account “political, military, economic, human rights, and arms control considerations“

WASHINGTON: The Trump administration moved forward with the sale of more than 20,000 US-made assault rifles to Israel last month, according to a document seen by Reuters and a source familiar with the matter, pushing ahead with a sale that the administration of former president Joe Biden had delayed over concerns they could be used by extremist Israeli settlers.
The State Department sent a notification to Congress on March 6 for the $24 million sale, saying the end user would be the Israeli National Police, according to the document.
The rifle sale is a small transaction next to the billions of dollars worth of weapons that Washington supplies to Israel. But it drew attention when the Biden administration delayed the sale over concerns that the weapons could end up in the hands of Israeli settlers, some of whom have carried out attacks on Palestinians in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on individuals and entities accused of committing violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, which has seen a rise in settler attacks on Palestinians.
On his first day in office on January 20, Trump issued an executive order rescinding US sanctions on Israeli settlers in a reversal of US policy. Since then, his administration has approved the sale of billions of dollars worth of weapons to Israel.
The March 6 congressional notification said the US government had taken into account “political, military, economic, human rights, and arms control considerations.”
The State Department did not respond to a request for comment when asked if the administration sought assurances from Israel on the use of the weapons.

CLOSE TIES
Since a 1967 Middle East war, Israel has occupied the West Bank, which Palestinians want as the core of an independent state, and has built settlements that most countries deem illegal. Israel disputes this, citing historical and biblical ties to the land.
Settler violence had been on the rise prior to the eruption of the Gaza war, and has worsened since the conflict began over a year ago.
Trump has forged close ties to Netanyahu, pledging to back Israel in its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. His administration has in some cases pushed ahead with Israel arms sales despite requests from Democratic lawmakers that the sales be paused until they received more information.
The US Senate on Thursday overwhelmingly rejected a bid to block $8.8 billion in arms sales to Israel over human rights concerns, voting 82-15 and 83-15 to reject two resolutions of disapproval over sales of massive bombs and other offensive military equipment.
The resolutions were offered by Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.
The rifle sale had been put on hold after Democratic lawmakers objected and sought information on how Israel was going to use them. The congressional committees eventually cleared the sale but the Biden administration kept the hold in place.
The latest episode in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict began with a Hamas attack on Israeli communities on October 7, 2023 with gunmen killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies. Israel’s campaign has so far killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, Gaza health authorities say.
Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, oversees the Israeli police force. The Times of Israel newspaper in November 2023 reported that his ministry has put “a heavy emphasis on arming civilian security squads” in the aftermath of October 7 attacks.


Medecins Sans Frontieres ‘appalled’ by second staff member killed in Gaza within weeks

Updated 04 April 2025
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Medecins Sans Frontieres ‘appalled’ by second staff member killed in Gaza within weeks

  • Hussam Al Loulou died in the strike on Apr. 1 in central Gaza

GENEVA: Global medical charity Medecins Sans Frontieres said on Friday it was appalled and saddened by the killing of one of its staff by an air strike in Gaza, the second within two weeks.


Hussam Al Loulou died in the strike on Apr. 1 in central Gaza, alongside his wife and 28-year-old daughter, the organization said.


Uganda president holds talks with South Sudanese leaders to try to avoid civil war

Updated 04 April 2025
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Uganda president holds talks with South Sudanese leaders to try to avoid civil war

  • Goc said that the country’s leadership had assured Museveni of its commitment to implement the peace agreement
  • Uganda last month deployed troops to South Sudan to support the government

NAIROBI: Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni was expected to meet South Sudanese officials on the second day of his trip to the capital, Juba, as the UN has expressed concern of a renewed civil war after the main opposition leader was put under house arrest.
Museveni, who is among the guarantors of a 2018 peace agreement that ended a five-year civil war, held closed-door discussions with President Salva Kiir on Thursday.
South Sudan’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Abdallah Goc said that the country’s leadership had assured Museveni of its commitment to implement the peace agreement.
South Sudan’s political landscape remains fragile and recent violence between government troops and armed groups allied to the opposition have escalated tension.
Uganda last month deployed troops to South Sudan to support the government, but it was criticized by South Sudan’s main opposition party SPLM-IO, whose leader Riek Machar is under house arrest on charges of incitement.
In early March, the armed group loyal to Machar attacked a UN helicopter that was on a mission to evacuate government troops from the restive northern Upper Nile State.
Western countries including Germany and Norway have temporarily closed their embassies in Juba while the USand the UK have reduced embassy staff.


Turkiye wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria, foreign minister says

Updated 04 April 2025
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Turkiye wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria, foreign minister says

  • Fidan said Israel’s actions in Syria were paving the way for future regional instability
  • If the new administration in Damascus wants to have “certain understandings” with Israel, then that is their own business, he added

BRUSSELS: Turkiye wants no confrontation with Israel in Syria after repeated Israeli attacks on military sites there undermined the new government’s ability to deter threats, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Reuters on Friday.
In an interview on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, Fidan said Israel’s actions in Syria — where the administration of President Ahmed Al-Sharaa is a close Turkish ally — were paving the way for future regional instability.
If the new administration in Damascus wants to have “certain understandings” with Israel, which like Turkiye is a neighbor of Syria, then that is their own business, he added.
NATO member Turkiye has fiercely criticized Israel over its attacks on Gaza since 2023, saying they amount to a genocide against the Palestinians, and has applied to join a case at the World Court against Israel while also halting all trade.
Israel denies the genocide accusations.
The animosity between the regional powers has spilled over into Syria, with Israeli forces striking Syria for weeks since a new administration took control in Damascus. Turkiye has called the Israeli strikes an encroachment on Syrian territories, while Israel has said it would not allow any hostile forces in Syria.
Asked about US President Donald Trump’s threats of military strikes against Iran, Fidan said diplomacy was needed to resolve the dispute and that Ankara did not want to see any attack taking place against its neighbor Iran.