Can US compel Israel to prioritize civilian protection and aid as Gaza truce gives way to renewed hostilities?

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Updated 02 December 2023
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Can US compel Israel to prioritize civilian protection and aid as Gaza truce gives way to renewed hostilities?

  • Israeli government faces pressure from Washington to have “clear plan” to protect civilians, avoid displacement and damage
  • War scholars say goal of destroying Hamas unrealistic, may prove impossible without very high civilian toll

LONDON: Just hours after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged Israel to prioritize civilians in its campaign against the Palestinian group Hamas, the Israeli military marked the end of a fragile truce in the Gaza Strip with renewed aerial bombardment.

By Saturday morning, 200 Palestinians had been killed, according to Hamas-run health ministry officials, as Israeli forces launched attacks on the Khan Younis area in southern Gaza, where it claimed to have targeted more than 50 Hamas sites.

The Israeli military said overall it hit more than 400 targets across the Gaza Strip, including strikes in the north, which suggested that no place in the besieged enclave was safe anymore.

Some 2 million people — almost Gaza’s entire population — poured into the territory’s south after Israel asked Palestinian civilians to relocate from other places at the military campaign’s start.

The question many were asking on Saturday was whether the Israel War Cabinet would heed the call of America’s top diplomat to have “a clear plan in place” for protecting civilians and avoid further mass displacement and damage to critical infrastructure, like hospitals, power stations and water facilities.




The Israeli military said overall it hit more than 400 targets across the Gaza Strip since the end of the truce. (AP/File)

Blinken’s comments, meant perhaps to shield the Biden administration from fresh criticism both at home and abroad, have left opinions divided among experts in war studies and geopolitics.

Tobias Borck, senior research fellow for Middle East security at RUSI, suspects that world leaders knew what was coming next after hearing those words, spoken to reporters in Jerusalem and Dubai.

“Blinken’s comments were made in anticipation of the truce coming to an end. This was the sense in Washington but also among the mediators, Egypt and Qatar,” he told Arab News.

“The option of a permanent ceasefire just did not seem viable to the Israeli government, which still felt it had a lot to do militarily. So, for Blinken the objective was to frame what came next, and was intended to show that the US was repositioning itself and making clear what its expectations were.”

Initially pegged as a four-day humanitarian pause to allow for the exchange of hostages by Hamas for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel, including many minors held in Israeli prisons without trial, the ceasefire lasted a week thanks to two extensions brokered by Qatar and Egypt.

After the end of the truce, militants in Gaza resumed firing rockets into Israel, and fighting also broke out between Israel and Hezbollah militants operating along its northern border with Lebanon, according to an Associated Press report.

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With 110 of the 240 hostages taken by Hamas returned, the Israeli military announced officially that the truce was broken, saying it had intercepted rockets fired from Gaza a little after 6 a.m. on Friday morning.

The military subsequently dropped leaflets in densely populated parts of southern Gaza urging residents to leave, indicating an imminent widening of the offensive, and noting that Khan Younis was a “dangerous battle zone.”

As per reports, Blinken told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that were fighting to continue, Israel would need to find more effective measures for protecting civilians.

This meant acting in “compliance with international humanitarian law” and provision of “every possible measure to avoid civilian harm.” He also emphasized the need for “sustaining and building on humanitarian assistance getting to Gaza.”

While criticizing Hamas for a deadly attack in occupied Jerusalem on Thursday and the renewed rocket strikes, Blinken alluded to the leaflets and Israel’s publishing of an interactive map detailing safe sites for civilians to relocate to.




Israeli soldiers work on armored military vehicles along Israel's border with the Gaza Strip. (AP)

Released on social media and in Arabic, the Israeli military tweeted that the map “divides the territory of Gaza into zones according to recognizable areas. This enables the residents of Gaza to orient themselves and to evacuate from specific places for their safety if required.”

Sources linked to aid efforts in Gaza, however, rubbished the idea, one telling Arab News that aid blockages probably meant little fuel was available, leaving most people unable to charge devices to even see such a map.

Borck said a central problem when it came to the protection of civilians concerned merging of the political objective, “namely, destroying Hamas,” with the military objective, and in turn trying to ascertain whether there was a wider strategy beyond this.

“The purported aim, destroying Hamas, is a pretty maximalist one, both in the political sense and the military sense,” he said.

“But you must ask what it means by destroying Hamas. Does the killing of Mohammed Deif and Yahiya Sinwar, the two considered to have masterminded the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks, achieve the objective? If so, you need look only to the hunt for Al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden for a potential time scale.”

Oubai Shahbandar, a former Middle East defense adviser at the Pentagon, believes that in seeking to achieve its stated objective, Israel’s military will not be satisfied with simply “decapitating” the Hamas leadership hierarchy.

Rather, the intention is likely to ensure that Hamas’ capacity to put up any major asymmetrical military challenge is “totally degraded.” However, he said such a course of action was likely to play into Hamas’ hands.

“Sinwar probably had no illusions about the Israeli response to what happened on Oct. 7,” Shahbandar said.

“There aren’t any real signs that Netanyahu is going to seriously curtail the scope of airstrikes, artillery strikes and infantry assaults into southern Gaza to match the requests coming from the Biden White House.”




Some 2 million people — almost Gaza’s entire population — poured into the territory’s south. (AP)

President Biden himself warned in the wake of the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas it would be smart were Israel to learn from the mistakes the US had made in hunting the perpetrators of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

That warning, though, had another meaning for Borck: the US, among numerous allies of Israel, was urging Netanyahu to think about “the day after Day 1,” specifically about where it wanted to be when the war ended, adding this was pivotal for Gaza’s civilian population.

Michael Pregent, a former US intelligence officer and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said Blinken’s demands were not a “serious ask” but reflected the opinion of a swathe of the international community.

He argues that there is a certain impossibility in minimizing civilian casualties, adding that Hamas is following a playbook he saw in Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia, where groups with similar ideologies “invited civilian death” as it earned them capital in the international news media.

He also noted that in response to similar tactics adopted by Daesh in Iraq, the US itself ended up decimating more than 80 percent of the city of Mosul in its nine-month campaign to rout the militants beginning in October 2016.

INNUMBERS

• 170 People killed in Gaza since resumption of fighting.

• 14,800 People killed in Gaza since start of Israeli assault.

• 136 Hostages seized by Hamas on Oct. 7 still in Gaza.

Asked whether greater thought ought to be put into forging strategies in response to attacks like that of Oct. 7, and in general the threat posed by Hamas and its militant allies to both Israeli and Palestinian civilians alike, Pregent said one option was to exhort the people of Gaza to reject Hamas. But history showed that it did not work, he said.

“One need only look at Afghanistan, where the Taliban is back. Groups such as the Taliban and Hamas are familiar with the precedents. They tell civilians, ‘You support an uprising, but our opponents will eventually leave and we will still be here. And when they go, we will be back and we will kill you and your whole family.’”

Significantly, during his meeting with Netanyahu, Blinken said the US remained committed to supporting Israel’s right to self-defense and assured him that he could count on US support.

The Biden administration has rejected calls for a long-term ceasefire and backed Israel’s fight to remove Hamas from power in Gaza with no “red lines” as it were that would trigger US penalties.

Despite the US emphasis on protection of civilians, the Wall Street Journal reported that Washington had disclosed little about how many and what types of weapons it had sent to Israel during the Gaza conflict.




Residents of Hamad Town residential complex in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip, sit with some of their belongings as they flee their homes after an Israeli strike. (AFP)

“The arsenal of artillery, bombs and other weapons and military gear that have been used by the US in Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia and Libya, among other places, usually target large groups of gathered enemy forces. In Gaza, by contrast, Israel is battling militants who are among civilians in dense urban environments,” the report said.

Against this backdrop, Shahbandar said history had repeatedly shown that Israel’s only realistic chance of dismantling Hamas as a military and political entity would not be found in the use of force.

“The way for Israel to achieve its aim is by helping to empower a Palestinian alternative to Hamas with real legitimacy,” he said. “But there seems very little appetite in the Netanyahu administration to pursue such a path.”

On Saturday, the International Rescue Committee, an aid group operating in Gaza, said the return of renewed fighting would “wipe out even the minimal relief” provided by the truce and “prove catastrophic for Palestinian civilians.”

Before the temporary truce took effect on Nov. 24, more than 13,300 Palestinians had been killed in Israel’s assault, roughly two-thirds of them women and minors, according to Gaza health officials.

The renewal of hostilities has also heightened concerns for the 136 Israelis and foreigners who are still held captive by Hamas and other militant groups.

Although little optimism concerning the fate of Gazans can be discerned in the immediate term, Borck said he saw a “sliver” of it in the future.




With 110 of the 240 hostages taken by Hamas returned, the Israeli military announced officially that the truce was broken. (AP)

Whereas the prevailing logic had been that the Middle East conflict could at best be “managed,” the past 54 days had “thoroughly dispelled that notion,” with governments in Washington, Paris and London, as well as Tel Aviv and Ramallah conscious now that it needed to end.

“Because of this recognition, I have been left slightly more confident we’ll see a resumption of work toward the two-state process,” Borck said.

“Look at the comments from Kier Starmer (UK opposition leader and odds-on favorite to win the next election) when he said Europe and the UK had given up on seeking peace in the Middle East because they felt it was too intractable.

“You sense, were he to become prime minister, this may lead to a change but, of course, he’s not as important as the person in the White House.”

Asked what he thought the agenda would be for the US when this war ends, Borck said that if Donald Trump returned, “all bets were off,” but were Biden to remain, he expected a greater focus on seeking peace, bringing the biggest win to Gaza’s embattled population.


Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli plan to double annexed Golan population

Updated 13 sec ago
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Saudi Arabia condemns Israeli plan to double annexed Golan population

  • Israel’s government ‘unanimously approved’ the $11 million ‘plan for the demographic development of the Golan’
  • The Kingdom says the strategic plateau is occupied Syrian Arab land, calls for respecting Syria’s territorial integrity

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia on Sunday condemned and denounced the Israeli government’s approval of a plan to double the population of the occupied and annexed Golan Heights.

Israel’s government “unanimously approved” the $11 million “plan for the demographic development of the Golan... in light of the war and the new front in Syria and the desire to double the population,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said.

“The Kingdom renews its call to the international community to condemn these Israeli violations, stressing the need to respect Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The statement added that the strategic plateau is occupied Syrian Arab land and condemned Israel’s “continued sabotage of Syria’s chances of restoring its security and stability.”

Israel has occupied most of the Golan Heights since 1967 and annexed that area in 1981 in a move recognized only by the United States.


HRW accuses Sudan paramilitaries of widespread sexual violence

Updated 44 min 21 sec ago
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HRW accuses Sudan paramilitaries of widespread sexual violence

  • It is the latest such report by international monitors alleging sexual violence during Sudan’s 20-month war
  • HRW said it had documented dozens of cases since September 2023 involving women and girls

NAIROBI: Human Rights Watch (HRW) on Monday accused the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and allied militias, at war with the army, of committing widespread sexual violence in southern Sudan.
It is the latest such report by international monitors alleging sexual violence during Sudan’s 20-month war which has led to what the United States called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
In its new report, HRW said it had documented dozens of cases since September 2023 involving women and girls aged between seven and 50 who were subjected to sexual violence, including gang rape and sexual slavery, in South Kordofan state.
The latest details follow a separate report last week from the New York-based watchdog which more broadly accused the RSF and allied Arab militias of carrying out numerous abuses, mainly against ethnic Nuba civilians, in South Kordofan state from December 2023 to March 2024.
These attacks, it said, “had not been widely reported” and constituted “war crimes.”
Parts of South Kordofan and parts of Blue Nile state are controlled by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), a rebel group.
The SPLM-N faction led by Abdelaziz Al-Hilu refused to join other Sudan rebels in signing a 2020 peace deal with the government, as Hilu sought a secular state as a prerequisite.
Many South Kordofan residents are members of Sudan’s Christian minority.
Hilu also at that time refused talks with RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, linking him with atrocities.
SPLM-N has clashed with both the army and RSF in parts of South Kordofan since April, 2023 when the war between the paramilitaries and Sudanese Armed Forces began, HRW said.
The conflict has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people, internally displaced more than eight million, according to the UN, and forced more than three million others to seek safety in neighboring countries.
According to the HRW report, many of the victims were gang-raped at their or their neighbors’ homes, often in front of families while some were abducted and held in conditions of enslavement.
One survivor, a 35-year-old Nuba woman, described being gang-raped by six RSF fighters who stormed her family compound and killed her husband and son when they tried to intervene.
“They kept raping me, all six of them,” she said.
Another survivor, aged 18, recounted being taken in February with 17 others to a base where they joined 33 detained women and girls.
“On a daily basis for three months, the fighters raped and beat the women and girls, including the 18-year-old survivor, crimes that also constitute sexual slavery,” HRW said.
At times, the captives were even chained together, it said.
“These acts of sexual violence, which constitute war crimes... underscore the urgent need for meaningful international action to protect civilians and deliver justice,” HRW said in its report.
The UN’s humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher raised the alarm late in November over an “epidemic of sexual violence” against women in Sudan, saying that the world “must do better.”
In October, the United Nations Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for the Sudan said both sides have committed abuses including torture and sexual violence. But it accused the paramilitaries, in particular, of “sexual violence on a large scale.”
These included “gang rapes and abducting and detaining victims in conditions that amount to sexual slavery,” the mission said.
In its initial report last week, HRW urged the UN and African Union to “urgently deploy a mission to protect civilians in Sudan.”


MWL condemns Israeli government decision to double Golan Heights population

Updated 16 December 2024
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MWL condemns Israeli government decision to double Golan Heights population

  • The Golan is home to 24,000 Druze, an Arab minority who practice an offshoot of Islam

RIYADH: The Muslim World League has condemned a plan by the Israeli government to double the population of the annexed Golan Heights.

The MWL “urged the international community to condemn and take action against the ongoing Israeli violations, which sabotage the prospects for the Syrian people to restore their security and stability after enduring years of injustice and suffering,” the organization said in a statement on Sunday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said that the government had “unanimously approved” the $11 million “plan for the demographic development of the Golan... in light of the war and the new front in Syria and the desire to double the population.”

The MWL statement emphasized the “imperative of respecting Syria's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the safety of its citizens.”

The Golan is home to 24,000 Druze, an Arab minority who practice an offshoot of Islam. Most identify as Syrian.

— with input from AFP


Syria war monitor says Israel struck military targets on Syrian coast

Updated 16 December 2024
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Syria war monitor says Israel struck military targets on Syrian coast

  • “Israeli warplanes launched strikes” targeting a series of sites including air defense units and “surface-to-surface missile depots”

BEIRUT, Lebanon: A Syria war monitor said early Monday that Israeli strikes had targeted military sites in Syria’s coastal Tartus region, calling them “the heaviest strikes” in the area in more than a decade.

“Israeli warplanes launched strikes” targeting a series of sites including air defense units and “surface-to-surface missile depots,” said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, in what it said were “the heaviest strikes in Syria’s coastal region since the start of strikes in 2012.”
 

 


Syria militant leader met visiting UN envoy: statement

Updated 16 December 2024
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Syria militant leader met visiting UN envoy: statement

  • UN Security Council Resolution 2254 of 2015, to which the rebel statement referred, set out a roadmap for a political settlement in Syria, and also mentioned Nusra’s “terrorist” designation

DAMASCUS: The Syrian Islamist leader whose group led the offensive that toppled Bashar Assad met Sunday with UN envoy Geir Pedersen, who was visiting Damascus, said a statement on the militants’ Telegram channel.

Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed Al-Golani, now using his real name Ahmed Al-Sharaa, discussed with Pedersen “the changes that have occurred on the political scene which make it necessary to update” a 2015 United Nations Security Council resolution “to suit the new reality,” the statement said.

Golani’s HTS is rooted in Syria’s branch of Al-Qaeda, the Al-Nusra Front, designated a “terrorist” organization by many Western governments.

UN Security Council Resolution 2254 of 2015, to which the militant statement referred, set out a roadmap for a political settlement in Syria, and also mentioned Nusra’s “terrorist” designation.

On Tuesday, Pedersen said the fact that Nusra was listed by the UN Security Council as a terrorist organization was “obviously a complicating factor” in efforts to find a way forward.

However, he stressed that it was important to view HTS, which broke with Nusra in 2016 and has sought to soften its image, through the events of the civil war.

The militant statement Sunday said Golani had emphasized “the need to focus on Syrian territorial unity, reconstruction and achieving economic development.”

He also raised “the importance of providing a safe environment for the return of refugees and providing economic and political support for this,” said the statement.

Earlier Sunday, Pedersen urged a “political process... that is inclusive of all Syrians.

“That process obviously needs to be led by the Syrians themselves” with “help and assistance” from the rest of the world, he said.