Lebanon’s Hezbollah faces moment of reckoning as Israel-Hamas war in Gaza enters its deadliest phase

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An Israeli artillery unit fires from a position in Upper Galilee in northern Israel towards southern Lebanon on December 11, 2023, amid increasing cross-border tensions with Hezbollah militants. (AFP)
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Smoke billows across the horizon along the hills in southern Lebanon from Israeli bombardment on December 10, 2023. (AFP)
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Israeli soldiers take positions near the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel on Dec. 11, 2023, as the war with Palestinian militants continue. (AP Photo)
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Updated 14 December 2023
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Lebanon’s Hezbollah faces moment of reckoning as Israel-Hamas war in Gaza enters its deadliest phase

  • The Lebanese militia faces a difficult dilemma — watch the destruction of Hamas from the sidelines or risk triggering a regional war
  • Analysts are divided over whether Israel has the means or international backing to take on Hezbollah once it is finished with Hamas

DUBAI: Since fighting between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas erupted on Oct. 7, Washington and its European allies have sought to contain the conflict and prevent it from spilling over into the wider region.

As soon as Israel mounted its military assault on the Gaza Strip — from where Hamas launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel — Lebanon’s Hezbollah kicked off its own campaign of cross-border strikes. This frustrated the efforts of UN peacekeepers, stationed along the Blue Line separating Israel and Lebanon, to dial down tensions.

As a vastly more powerful force than Hamas, with access to sophisticated drone and missile technology supplied by Iran, any full-scale conflict involving Hezbollah would likely be many times more destructive for Israel.




Smoke billows across the horizon along the hills in southern Lebanon from Israeli bombardment  on December 10, 2023. (AFP)

The Israeli Defense Forces has responded to Hezbollah’s attacks with air, drone and artillery strikes on southern Lebanon, leaving 120 people, mostly the latter’s fighters, dead. In turn, Israel has suffered 10 casualties, including six soldiers.

Although the exchanges are the worst since the 30-day war of 2006, both sides have avoided direct clashes and incursions that could result in a serious escalation.

There is little appetite among lawmakers in Lebanon’s caretaker government, and the wider population, for a war with Israel, especially as the country grapples with its worst economic crisis in living memory.

“Believe me when I tell you, our hearts bleed with Gaza, but we cannot withstand another war on our own soil,” Ali Abdullah, a 37-year-old Lebanese citizen who is jobless, told Arab News.

“Necessities have become luxuries to many of us. To drag Lebanon in its current state into another war would be callous. How can we answer a call to arms on empty stomachs?”

Hezbollah’s hesitation to plunge into a full-blown war is also partly a result of sustained Western military and diplomatic pressure.

Since October, the US has stationed two strike carrier groups and a nuclear submarine in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Gulf to deter escalation by Hezbollah and other groups sympathetic to Hamas.

Amos Hochstein, deputy assistant to US President Joe Biden and a senior adviser for energy and investment, traveled to Lebanon in November to warn Lebanese officials and Hezbollah not to escalate the conflict.

Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has said that the main goal of his militia’s attacks on Israel is to drain the IDF’s military resources that would otherwise have been used in Gaza.

But as he watches Hamas’ destruction as a military organization, his fighters have a tough choice to make: whether to sit back and watch the Gaza leg of the Iran-backed so-called Axis of Resistance get dismantled, or to throw in their lot with Hamas in an effort to save it.




Hezbollah fighters and party supporters watch Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Hezbollah Lebanese Shiite Muslim movement, deliver a televised address on a large screen at a venue in Beirut on November 11, 2023. (AFP)

“I think they wouldn’t. They would stick to the sidelines,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Arab News previously. “Hezbollah and Iran both have a preference to avoid a larger direct confrontation with Israel.”

Maksad and other analysts believe that as the first line of deterrence and defense for the Iranian regime and its nuclear program if Israel decides to strike, Hezbollah is not going to be wasted on saving Hamas.

Even so, as the IDF encircles the last holdouts of Hamas in Gaza and continues to strike targets within Lebanon and Syria, the likelihood of a regional flare-up continues to be strong.




Israeli soldiers take positions near the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel on Dec. 11, 2023, as the war with Palestinian militants continue. (AP Photo)

Defense analysts say Hezbollah has massed much of its elite Radwan fighting force on the border and is using new weapons. This includes the so-called Burkan short-range rockets that can carry more than 1,000 pounds (453 kg) of explosive material, and which inflicted severe damage on an Israeli military outpost last month.

According to a recent Wall Street Journal report, Hezbollah possesses GPS-guided weapons capable of striking the entirety of Israeli territory; highly accurate, heavy-payload SCUD missiles, as well as a version of the lethal Syrian-made Tishreen missile; and plenty of Kornet antitank missiles equipped with laser-guided munitions.

All this is on top of an expanded arsenal of an estimated 150,000 rockets.




Hezbollah fighters parade in Beirut's southern suburbs on April 14, 2023, to mark Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day, a commemoration in support of the Palestinian people celebrated annually on the last Friday of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. (AFP/File photo)

As a deterrent, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a thunderous threat last week — Beirut and southern Lebanon would be turned “into Gaza and Khan Younis” if cross-border attacks by Hezbollah escalated. Israeli troops and Hamas militants are currently locked in deadly combat for control of Khan Younis, Gaza’s second-biggest city.

According to Meir Javedanfar, a lecturer at Tel Aviv’s Reichman University, Israeli tolerance for Hezbollah threats is at an all-time low.

“Benny Gantz, the Israeli defense minister, has told the Americans that Israel wants Hezbollah to evacuate the areas adjacent to its borders,” he told Arab News.

“This is in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which states they are not to be there in the first place. This is what Israel is aiming for.”

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Resolution 1701 was the agreement that ended the 2006 war. It called for “security arrangements to prevent the resumption of hostilities, including the establishment between the Blue Line and the Litani River of an area free of any armed personnel, assets and weapons other than those of the government of Lebanon and UNIFIL (UN Interim Force in Lebanon).”

Hezbollah’s continued presence in the area could be provocative enough for the IDF to move against the group once it has finished with Hamas.

Israel has deployed possibly up to 100,000 soldiers along the northern border, evacuated 80,000 local residents, and transformed some border communities into military bases due to the perceived threat of a Hezbollah invasion.




Israeli soldiers patrol on the top of the Mount Hermon near the border with Lebanon in the Israel-annexed Golan Heights amid increasing cross-border tensions with Hezbollah militants. (AFP)

“We saw what happens when you have Hamas on your border,” said Javedanfar. “It led to such a disaster on Oct. 7.

“We have a new situation. The Israeli government is going to pressure the Americans and other countries to understand that it will not live with a Hezbollah military presence on its borders anymore.

“After Oct. 7, the tolerance for Hezbollah’s threats has become very low. It could be next week, it could be five years from now. Who knows? But Israel will terminate the Hezbollah threat.” 




Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted above a position across the border near Kibbutz Dan in northern Israel on November 7, 2023 amid increasing cross-border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel. (AFP)

Military analysts believe the Israeli security establishment had convinced itself that the threat posed by Hamas had been contained, only to be blindsided by the attack of Oct. 7, which resulted in the deaths of some 1,400 people, primarily civilians, and the taking of more than 240 hostages.

It is a mistake they will not want to make again, Javedanfar suggested.

“We believed they had changed, that they had matured from an extremist military organization into one that is interested in developing Gaza’s economy and becoming more responsible,” he said.

“We were proven wrong. All these assumptions were proven wrong. We saw the devastating consequences of being wrong regarding Hamas, and now we are asking the same question regarding Hezbollah. Do we want to live with its threats on our borders? And its 150,000 missiles?

“Israel has over 300,000 military personnel in reserve forces and is willing to use them in order to deter Hezbollah away from its borders.”

Tzachi Hanegbi, head of the National Security Council of Israel, recently said that once Hamas is defeated, Israel may have to go to war with Hezbollah or else citizens may not want to return to the northern areas.

Although Israel would prefer not to fight a war on two fronts, Hanegbi said it may have to “impose a new reality” when it comes to Hezbollah.

Not every analyst, though, is convinced that Israel has the means, the will or the international backing to mount a successful military campaign against the formidable Hezbollah.

“A full-scale war with Lebanon will be a burden on Israel,” Nadim Shehadi, a Lebanese economist and columnist, told Arab News. “But it will be too costly economically and psychologically for Israel not to attack Hezbollah.”

At the same time, Shehadi believes the complete defeat of Hamas is beyond Israel’s means, especially now that global public opinion is shifting against the Israelis.

“What Hamas has achieved in terms of victory is destroying Israeli self-perception,” he said.




Israeli soldiers gather near the border with the Gaza Strip, southern Israel, Friday, Dec. 8, 2023. (AP Photo))

“Two core beliefs were shattered. One being that the Israeli government created a safe place where Jews can be protected by their state. This has crumbled as citizens feel neither safe nor secure and have been fleeing the Galilee.

“The second being that the Israeli army is moral, that it abides by international law and humanitarian rules. This has also crumbled. Both the world and Israelis don’t believe that anymore. They have gone mad in Gaza.”

More than 18,000 people have been killed in Gaza since Oct. 7, most of them women and children, according to the Hamas-controlled Health Ministry.

“These are also gains for Hezbollah,” said Shehadi. “Hezbollah is watching what is being carried out in Gaza now.”

However, Shehadi too does not believe Hezbollah wants a war with Israel — at least not yet.

 


‘New Syria’ offers historic moment of hope but also threats and uncertainty, says UN chief

Updated 19 December 2024
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‘New Syria’ offers historic moment of hope but also threats and uncertainty, says UN chief

  • Secretary-General Antonia Guterres warned of Daesh threats in parts of the country and called for Israeli airstrikes to stop
  • Progress could unravel ‘if the ongoing situation is not managed carefully by Syrians themselves’ with international support, he adds

NEW YORK CITY: While recent developments in Syria offer a long-awaited opportunity for Syrians to realize their aspirations for freedom “there is a real risk that progress could unravel” if the situation is not managed carefully, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned on Thursday.

Long-time dictator Bashar Assad fled the country on Dec. 8 following a swift offensive by a group of rebels. Their operation, which lasted less than two weeks, met little resistance.

Guterres noted that the end of more than five decades of “brutal, dictatorial rule” by the Assad family offers a long-sought opportunity for all Syrians to fulfill the aspirations that sparked their peaceful movement for change in 2011. The slogan that echoed across the country, “The Syrian people are one,” has never been more relevant, he added.

“It holds great promise for a country so rich in diversity, history and culture, along with its deep-rooted traditions of generosity, which I witnessed first-hand as high commissioner for refugees when the Syrian people welcomed millions of displaced Iraqis,” Guterres said.

However, he stressed that “nothing is guaranteed” and warned: “If the ongoing situation is not managed carefully by Syrians themselves, with the support of the international community, there is a real risk that progress could unravel.”

Guterres emphasized that “all communities must be fully integrated into the new Syria,” and “the rights of women and girls must be fully respected.” He also reiterated the importance of ensuring the process is guided by the principles outlined in UN Security Council Resolution 2254.

Adopted in 2015, the resolution calls for a ceasefire agreement and political settlement in Syria, and sets out a road map for the country’s transition, including “free and fair” elections.

Although some parts of Syria are relatively stable following the fall of Assad, Guterres warned that the conflict is far from over and civilians continue to be killed, injured and displaced. Daesh remains a threat in some areas, while Israel continues to target the country with extensive airstrikes.

“These are violations of Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Guterres said. “They must stop.”

In the Golan Heights, he said, the UN’s Disengagement Observer Force has reported an ongoing Israeli military presence in several locations within the Area of Separation, despite long-standing agreements prohibiting such deployments.

The peacekeeping mission has also observed Israeli personnel and equipment in at least one place inside the Area of Limitation. The 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement between Israel and Syria stipulates that this area must remain free of military forces.

Guterres called on Israel and Syria to fully comply with the terms of the agreement, which “remains in full force.”

He added: “Let me be clear: There should be no military forces in the Area of Separation other than UN peacekeepers, period. Syria’s sovereignty, territorial unity and integrity must be fully restored, and all acts of aggression must come to an immediate end.”

Neighboring country Turkiye has “a very important role” to play in convincing parties in Syria of the need for inclusive dialogue, Guterres said. However, he also stressed the need to establish a permanent ceasefire in northeastern Syria, and to stem the activities of Daesh in the area.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in the country remains one of the worst in the world, with the recent escalation further exacerbating the needs of people nationwide. Guterres stressed the urgent need to ensure humanitarian and recovery efforts receive adequate funding. The UN’s humanitarian chief has already warned that the appeal for aid to Syria, one of the largest in the world, remains severely underfunded.

Describing the current moment in Syria as one of “hope and history” but also “great uncertainty,” Guterres said: “Some will try to exploit the situation for their own narrow interests. But it is the obligation of the international community to stand with the people of Syria, who have suffered so much.

“Syria’s future must be shaped by its people, for its people, with the support of all of us.”


Putin says fall of Assad not a ‘defeat’ for Russia

Updated 19 December 2024
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Putin says fall of Assad not a ‘defeat’ for Russia

  • Assad’s departure came over 13 years after crackdown on democracy protests precipitated civil war
  • Russia was Assad’s key backer and swept to his aid in 2015, turning the tide of the conflict in his favor

MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the fall of ex-Syrian leader Bashar Assad was not a “defeat” for Russia, claiming Moscow had achieved its goals in the country.
Assad fled to Moscow earlier this month after a shock militant advance ended half a century of rule by the Assad family, marked by repression and allegations of vast human rights abuses and civil war.
His departure came more than 13 years after his crackdown on democracy protests precipitated a civil war.
Russia was Assad’s key backer and had swept to his aid in 2015, turning the tide of the conflict.
“You want to present what is happening in Syria as a defeat for Russia,” Putin said at his annual end-of-year press conference.
“I assure you it is not,” he said, responding to a question from an American journalist.
“We came to Syria 10 years ago so that a terrorist enclave would not be created there like in Afghanistan. On the whole, we have achieved our goal,” Putin said.
The Kremlin leader said he had yet to meet with Assad in Moscow, but planned to do so soon.
“I haven’t yet seen president Assad since his arrival in Moscow but I plan to, I will definitely speak with him,” he said.
Putin was addressing the situation in Syria publicly for the first time since Assad’s fall.
Moscow is keen to secure the fate of two military bases in the country.
The Tartus naval base and Hmeimim air base are Russia’s only military outposts outside the former Soviet Union and have been key to the Kremlin’s activities in Africa and the Middle East.
Putin said there was support for Russia keeping hold of the bases.
“We maintain contacts with all those who control the situation there, with all the countries of the region. An overwhelming majority of them say they are interested in our military bases staying there,” Putin said.
He also said Russia had evacuated 4,000 Iranian soldiers from the country at the request from Tehran.


Syrian girls’ right to schooling unrestricted, new education minister says

Updated 19 December 2024
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Syrian girls’ right to schooling unrestricted, new education minister says

  • New rulers promise equal treatment for all minority groups
  • Education minister assures girls’ right to education remains unchanged
  • Half of Syria’s schools destroyed or damaged, Qadri says

DAMASCUS: Syria will remove all references to the former ruling Baath party from its educational system as of next week but will not otherwise change school curricula or restrict the rights of girls to learn, the country’s new education minister said.
“Education is a red line for the Syrian people, more important than food and water,” Nazir Mohammad Al-Qadri said in an interview from his office in Damascus.
“The right to education is not limited to one specific gender. ... There may be more girls in our schools than boys,” he said.
The secular, pan-Arab nationalist Baath Party governed Syria since a 1963 coup d’etat, seeing education as an important tool for instilling life-long loyalty among the young to the country’s authoritarian ruling system.
President Bashar Assad was toppled on Dec. 8 by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist rebel group that some Syrians fear may seek to implement a conservative form of Islamist governance.
But Qadri’s plans reflect their wider management approach and moderate messaging so far.
Syria has long been seen to have one of the Arab world’s strongest education systems, a reputation that has largely survived 13 years of civil war.
Qadri said religion — both Muslim and Christian — will continue to be taught as a subject in school.
Primary schools will remain mixed between boys and girls, while secondary education will stay largely segregated, he said.
“After primary school, there were always schools for females and schools for males. We won’t change that,” said Qadri, who had taken to his ornately-furnished office so recently that he had not yet procured Syria’s new green, white and black flag.
Syria’s new rulers, who have long-since disavowed their former Al-Qaeda links, have said that all of Syria’s minority groups including Kurds, Christians, Druze and Alawites will be treated equal as the new government focuses on rebuilding.
They face a formidable challenge.
Syria remains under tight Western sanctions.
Entire cities were levelled in 13 years of war that Qadri said had also left about half the country’s 18,000 schools damaged or destroyed.
But the rebels have moved into government fast, extending a hand to former state employees who have shown up to work in droves.
Most of the new ministers are young — in their 30s or 40s — making 54-year-old Qadri among the oldest in government.
Born and raised in Damascus, he was imprisoned by the Assad regime in 2008 on what he said were spurious charges of inciting sectarian strife, preventing him from finishing his bachelor’s degree.
He was released a decade later and fled to northern Idlib, then under the control of HTS, becoming education minister in its Salvation Government in 2022.
He is currently finishing his masters thesis in Arabic language.
With the political and social contours of the new Syrian state still being drawn, Qadri said students would not be tested on their mandatory “nationalist studies” — previously a vehicle for teaching Baathism and Assad family history — this year.


Palestinian health ministry says 4 killed in Israeli West Bank strike

Updated 19 December 2024
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Palestinian health ministry says 4 killed in Israeli West Bank strike

RAMALLAH: The Palestinian health ministry said Thursday that an Israeli air strike on a car killed four Palestinians and wounded three near the occupied West Bank city of Tulkarem.
The ministry announced that the Palestinians were killed “as a result of the (Israeli) bombing of a vehicle in Tulkarem camp,” which the Israeli army did not immediately confirm to AFP.


Turkiye, Iran leaders call for Syria unity at Muslim summit in Cairo

Updated 48 min 29 sec ago
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Turkiye, Iran leaders call for Syria unity at Muslim summit in Cairo

  • Relations between Egypt and Iran have been strained for decades, but diplomatic contacts have intensified since Cairo became a mediator in the war in Gaza

CAIRO: The leaders of Turkiye and Iran called on Thursday for unity in Syria at a summit of eight Muslim-majority countries after the ouster of Syria’s president Bashar Assad.
Turkiye historically backed Assad’s opponents, while Iran supported his rule.
The gathering of the D-8 Organization for Economic Cooperation, also known as the Developing-8, was being held against a backdrop of regional turmoil including the conflict in Gaza, a fragile ceasefire in Lebanon and unrest in Syria.
In a speech at the summit, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, called for reconciliation in Syria and the restoration of the country’s “territorial integrity and unity.”
He also voiced hope for “the establishment of a Syria free of terrorism,” where “all religious sects and ethnic groups live side by side in peace.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian also called for “the participation of all (Syrian) groups in the future government... as well as respect for different beliefs and religions.”
He added that “for more than 14 months, the Middle East region, in particular Gaza and southern Lebanon, and now... Syria, has been the target of massive attacks” by Israel.
“It is our religious, legal and human duty to prevent further harm” to those suffering in the conflict zones, he said.
Pezeshkian is the first Iranian president to visit Egypt since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2013.
Relations between Egypt and Iran have been strained for decades, but diplomatic contacts have intensified since Cairo became a mediator in the war in Gaza.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Egypt in October, while his Egyptian counterpart Badr Abdelatty traveled to Tehran in July to attend Pezeshkian’s inauguration.
Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas, speaking at a special session on Gaza and Lebanon, said the international community should adopt “a single standard of justice” and ensure Israel “is held accountable and punished for violations of international law” in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
Abbas called for the adoption of a political plan he presented at a November summit in Riyadh, which includes a ceasefire, Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza and full UN membership for Palestine.
Iran’s president expressed support for any agreement backed by all Palestinian factions.
“The right to self-determination of the Palestinian people must be respected,” said Pezeshkian.
He called on the international community to pressure Israel to implement a ceasefire in Gaza, end attacks on Lebanon and Syria and facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
The Cairo summit also hosted a meeting between Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
Pakistan and Bangladesh were once one nation but split in a brutal 1971 war, with Bangladesh then drawing closer to Pakistan’s arch-rival India.
Bangladesh’s interim leader Muhammad Yunus said he had “agreed to strengthen relations” with Pakistan, a move likely to further test his country’s frosty relations with India.
Established in 1997, the D-8 aims to foster cooperation among member states, spanning regions from Southeast Asia to Africa.
The organization includes Egypt, Turkiye, Iran, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia as member states.