RIYADH: Fitch Ratings has revised Oman’s long-term foreign currency issuer default ratings to positive from stable and affirmed the IDR at BB+, driven by the availability of fiscal tools to combat future shocks. 

According to its latest report, the US-based credit rating agency said that the Gulf country’s ratings were supported by higher gross domestic product per capita, the positive impact of recent budget reforms and decreasing government debt per GDP. 

While Fitch maintains a positive outlook on Oman, its IDR remains lower than that of its regional neighbors, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In February, Fitch affirmed the Kingdom’s IDR at A+ with a stable outlook, while the UAE received an AA- rating.

According to the rating agency, a BB rating indicates an elevated vulnerability to default risk, particularly in the event of adverse changes in business or economic conditions over time. However, it also suggests that the company or entity has some financial flexibility to meet its obligations despite the increased risk.

“High dependence on oil revenue, modest financial buffers given high exposure to volatile hydrocarbon prices, and Oman’s net external debtor position weigh on the ratings,” said Fitch. 

Saudi Arabia’s A+ rating indicates the Kingdom’s strong capacity to pay financial commitments and signifies low default risk. 

The analysis added that Oman’s positive outlook also reflects greater confidence in the resilience of public finances and the availability of more fiscal tools to respond to shocks than in the past.

The US-based agency said the Gulf country’s overall GDP is expected to expand by 1.8 percent in 2024, driven by the growth of the non-oil economy. 

“We project overall GDP growth of 1.8 percent in 2024, after 1.2 percent in 2023, supported by non-oil growth of 3.7 percent, while hydrocarbon GDP was hindered by OPEC+ quotas. Domestic consumption, robust foreign investment and tourism will maintain non-oil growth above 3 percent in 2025 and 2026,” added Fitch. 

The analysis added that Oman’s budget surplus is expected to narrow to 0.7 percent of GDP in 2025 and to turn into a minor deficit of 0.2 percent in 2026, assuming that the average price of Brent oil will reach $70 per barrel next year, and $65 per barrel in 2026. 

In November, Moody’s also upgraded Saudi Arabia’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Aa3 from A1. 

Moody’s gives Aa3 ratings to countries with very low credit risk and the best ability to repay short-term debt. 

Fitch downgrades Egypt’s economic growth prospects

In a separate report, Fitch Ratings downgraded Egypt’s economic growth outlook to 3.7 percent for the fiscal year 2024/2025, down from a previous projection of 4.2 percent, driven by disruptions in the Suez Canal. 

The US-based agency added that Egypt’s economy is expected to accelerate to 5.1 percent in 2025/26, up from its previous forecast of 4.7 percent. 

Fitch said that this expected economic growth is driven by the possible normalization of Red Sea navigation and a stronger performance of the services sector due to easing geopolitical risks.

In November, speaking at the Rome MED-Mediterranean Dialogues conference, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Badr Abdelatty said that the country had incurred losses amounting to $8 billion due to a significant drop in the Suez Canal revenues. 

The analysis added that the country’s economy is recovering; however, the pace is slower than previously projected. 

In October, the International Monetary Fund said that Egypt’s economy is set to expand by 2.7 percent in the current fiscal year before accelerating to 4.1 percent next year. 

Earlier this month, another report by Fitch Ratings said that general business and operating conditions for financial institutions in Egypt are expected to improve next year. 

In that report, Fitch said that improved investor confidence and healthy foreign currency liquidity conditions are some of the major factors that could strengthen the banking sector in Egypt in 2025. 

BERLIN: Thousands of Syrian doctors work in Germany, and the fall of Bashar Assad is raising concern over the potential consequences for the health sector if many of them were to return home.
Germany became a leading destination for Syrian refugees over the past decade, and some politicians were quick to start talking about encouraging the return of at least some after rebels took Damascus earlier this month. Others noted that the exiles include many well-qualified people and said their departure would hurt Germany — particularly that of doctors and other medical staff.
“Whole areas in the health sector would fall away if all the Syrians who work here now were to leave our country,” Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said last week. “For us it is important that we make the offer to the Syrians who are here, who have a job, who have integrated, who are crime-free, whose children go to school, to stay here and be there for our economy.”
Syrians have become a factor in a health sector that struggles to fill jobs, part of a wider problem Germany has with an aging population and a shortage of skilled labor.
The head of the German Hospital Federation, Gerald Gass, says Syrians now make up the largest single group of foreign doctors, accounting for 2 percent to 3 percent.
An estimated 5,000 Syrian doctors work in hospitals alone. Health Minister Karl Lauterbach, who puts the total number of Syrian doctors at over 6,000, says they are “indispensable” to health care.
Gass said the picture hospital operators are getting from Syrian doctors so far is “very varied.” Some — particularly those with many relatives still in Syria — are considering a quick return if the situation proves stable, while others feel at ease and well-integrated in Germany and want to stay. But “no looming mass movement toward Syria is recognizable” at present.
“It’s certainly not the case that patient care would collapse in Germany if all Syrian doctors returned now,” Gass said. “But of course we have the situation that these people often work in smaller groups at individual sites” — whose quick departure could force temporary local closures.
“We are well advised to treat these people respectfully,” Gass said. “And yes, hospital owners are giving thought to how they could fill these jobs.”
Many Syrian doctors have made Germany their home
Dr. Hiba Alnayef, an assistant pediatric doctor at a hospital in Nauen, just outside Berlin, said she has been asked in the last 10 days, “what if the Syrians all go back now?”
“I don’t know — some want to, but it’s very difficult and uncertain,” said Aleppo-born Alnayef, who has spent much of her life outside Syria and came to Germany from Spain in 2016. She said it’s something she thinks about, “but I have a homeland here too now.”
She said she and other Syrian doctors and pharmacists would like to build cooperation between Germany and Syria.
“The Germans need specialists, Syria needs support ... renovation, everything is destroyed now,” she said. “I think we can work well together to help both societies.”
Alnayef said the German health system would have “a big problem” if only part of its Syrian doctors decided to leave — “we are understaffed, we are burned out, we are doing the work of several doctors.” She said Germany has offered “a safe harbor,” but that discrimination and racism have been issues and integration is a challenge.
Dr. Ayham Darouich, 40, who came from Aleppo to Germany to study medicine in 2007 and has had his own general practice in Berlin since 2021, said that “as far as I have heard, none of my circle of friends wants to go back.”
“They have their family or their practices here, they have their society here,” Darouich said. German concerns that many might return are “a bit exaggerated, or unjustified.”
But he said Germany needs to do more to persuade medical professionals it trains to stay in the country, and that it could also do more to make itself attractive to foreigners needed to fill the gaps.
“We see that the nurses and medical professionals in hospitals earn relatively little in comparison with the US or Switzerland,” Darouich said, and poorly regulated working hours and understaffed hospitals are among factors that “drive people away.”