Year in review: Too many crises to keep count of in Africa’s Sahel belt as 2023 comes to a close

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Updated 24 December 2023
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Year in review: Too many crises to keep count of in Africa’s Sahel belt as 2023 comes to a close

  • Millions of migrants and refugees were on the move in 2023 after the outbreak of war in Sudan and a coup in Niger
  • The region’s political upheavals and security threats have become a major concern for Europe and the Arab world

NOUAKCHOTT, Mauritania: With world attention riveted on the war raging in Gaza between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, conflicts elsewhere, particularly the violence in Sudan and instability across the Sahel, are in danger of being forgotten.

The Sahel belt of Africa, stretching from Mali in the west to Sudan in the east, was catapulted into the global spotlight in early 2023 by a wave of political upheaval, humanitarian challenges, and security threats.

Given its strategic significance for Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, the region’s recent spate of coups, extremist insurgencies, and proliferation of migration routes have made it a particular source of concern for policy planners.

International actors, from former colonial rulers including France to multilateral bodies such as the African Union, have been left increasingly concerned by a perceived disinterest in the region and a failure to help resolve problems.




In April 2023, fighting between Sudan's army and the paramilitary forces of Mohammed Dagalo broke out, sending tens of thousands of people fleeing their homes. (AFP)

Sudan crisis

The region’s first major upheaval of 2023 arose in Sudan, where violence erupted in mid-April between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, triggering a massive wave of displacement that has since rippled through neighboring countries.

The capital, Khartoum, the troubled Darfur region, and other parts of the country have ended the year ravaged by fighting and mass displacement, triggering an economic collapse, the disintegration of the health system, and a growing risk of famine.

The recruitment of foreign fighters from across the wider Sahel, many of them children and destitute farmers driven to desperation, has led to fears the conflict could spill over into the wider region, proliferating the spread of light weaponry and destabilizing neighboring states.




The  conflict in Sudan has revived fears about children being exploited by the warring sides to fight. (AFP/File)

Saudi Arabia and the US have brokered multiple rounds of ceasefire talks with Sudan’s warring parties, while the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, an eight-country trade bloc in Africa, has also sought to reach a settlement.

As for a domestic resolution, initial hopes for a non-military government in Sudan, after the military overthrew the civilian-led administration in late 2021, have been all but dashed.

Aid agencies have issued repeated calls for the warring parties to stop perpetrating violence against civilians, particularly women and girls, shedding light on the humanitarian dimensions of the turmoil.

Experts have also warned that the conflict and resulting breakdown of government authority could be exploited by extremist groups such as Daesh and Al-Qaeda, or open the way for the creation of new radical organizations with similar objectives.




Experts have warned that the conflict and resulting breakdown of government authority could be exploited by extremist groups such as Daesh and Al-Qaeda to pursue their goals. (AFP/File)

Niger coup

Amid the focus on Sudan, the international community was caught off guard in July when a coup in Niger marked the latest in a series of military takeovers in the region — Mali and Burkina Faso having witnessed coups of their own in recent years.

This development underscored the fragility of governance structures in the Sahel, raising questions about the efficacy of international efforts to promote stability and democratic institutions.

Niger, a landlocked country of 25 million, had been a beneficiary of Western programs aimed at stopping migrants from traveling further north. However, the junta turned its back on the West, aligning with the broad public sentiment that little of this money had trickled down to local communities.




Niger's National Council for Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) seized power in the West African nation in July 2023, aggravating the political crisis in the region. (AFP)

The coup had wider implications, particularly for the flow of migrants transiting through the region.

Prior to the coup, Niger had worked with Western governments to help manage these migration routes. As a result, European states looked to Tunisia and Libya to control irregular migration across the Mediterranean Sea.

In tandem with these developments, support for anti-immigration politicians has grown across Europe. In turn, moderates have been forced into offering heightened border protections and revised asylum policies to head off electoral challenges.




Migrants wait to be saved by the Aquarius rescue ship run by the "SOS Mediterranee" and "Medecins Sans Frontieres" (Doctors Without Borders) off Libya in the Mediterranean Sea on August 2, 2017. (AFP)

Storms and earthquakes

Beyond the conflicts and coups, nature also made its capacity for devastation felt in September when Morocco was hit by a catastrophic earthquake and Libya suffered cataclysmic flooding, leaving thousands dead and many more missing.

These twin disasters sparked a global aid response, but the support delivered to suffering Moroccans differed greatly from that provided to Libya, with the latter remaining closed off to the world, while militias preyed on the local population and the large number of migrants transiting through the country.




A man searches through the rubble in the earthquake-hit village of Imi N’Tala, in central Morocco on October 5, 2023. (AFP/File)

Displacement

The result of these multiple, overlapping disasters has been the mass displacement of the Sahel’s population, leaving them vulnerable to exploitation. International agencies have drawn particular attention to the ongoing recruitment of child soldiers across the Sahel.

The spread of child exploitation added a grim dimension to an already complex set of challenges and underscored the need for international cooperation to protect the most vulnerable in times of crisis.

Simultaneously, the UN expressed alarm about the mounting hunger crisis in Sudan. This humanitarian emergency added urgency to the critical need for food assistance and aid to address the escalating challenges faced by the population.




Children queue for food at a refugee center for people displaced by the war in Sudan, in tis July 2023 photo. (AFP/File)

By November, warnings had reemerged about the potential for a genocide in Sudan’s Darfur, echoing past tragedies in the region. Analysts said this ominous development underscored the need to address the root causes of conflict, prompting renewed calls for diplomatic initiatives and peacekeeping efforts.

The year drew to a close with the fall of Sudan’s city of Wad Madani to the RSF, despite recent ceasefire talks and prior US warnings. The RSF’s latest battlefield success followed three days of intense fighting, leading to a mass exodus of residents toward the south and the suspension of operations by aid organizations.

The tragic result of these mass displacement episodes was made all too clear on Dec. 16 when 61 migrants, many of them from Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, drowned in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Libya when the small smuggling vessel they were traveling in got into difficulty.

Signs of hope

Perhaps the only positive news emanating from the region in the closing days of 2023 was the US helping to foster reconciliation between Algeria and Morocco in addressing the Western Sahara conflict.




UN's Western Sahara envoy Staffan de Mistura (L) shakes hands with Polisario leader Brahim Ghali (R) in Algeria's southwestern city of Tindouf. (AFP/File)

A persistent source of contention between the two Arab neighbors, the disputed nature of the territory also bears significance for external actors owing to its role as a transit point for Africans migrating toward Spain.

If one lesson can be drawn from the past 12 months, analysts believe it is the need for comprehensive solutions, addressing both the root causes of the many overlapping conflicts in the Sahel and their broader impact on migration patterns.

 


Trudeau says Canada will place 25% tariffs on $155 billion in US imports in retaliation for Trump tariffs

Updated 7 sec ago
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Trudeau says Canada will place 25% tariffs on $155 billion in US imports in retaliation for Trump tariffs

OTTAWA: Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said on Saturday Canada would impose 25 percent tariffs on C$155 billion ($106.5 billion) of US goods in response to US tariffs.

C$30 billion would take effect from Tuesday and C$125 billion in 21 days, Trudeau told a news conference.

Trump earlier signed an executive order imposing 25 percent tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico starting on Tuesday except Canadian energy products, which will be subject to a 10 percent duty.


Zelensky says excluding Ukraine from US-Russia talks about war is ‘very dangerous’

Updated 02 February 2025
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Zelensky says excluding Ukraine from US-Russia talks about war is ‘very dangerous’

  • Zelensky’s remarks followed comments Friday by Trump, who said American and Russian officials were “already talking” about ending the war
  • Without security guarantees from Ukraine’s allies, Zelensky said, any deal struck with Russia would only serve as a precursor to future aggression

KYIV, Ukraine: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Saturday that excluding his country from talks between the US and Russia about the war in Ukraine would be “very dangerous” and asked for more discussions between Kyiv and Washington to develop a plan for a ceasefire.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with The Associated Press, Zelensky said Russia does not want to engage in ceasefire talks or to discuss any kind of concessions, which the Kremlin interprets as losing at a time when its troops have the upper hand on the battlefield.
He said US President Donald Trump could bring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the table with the threat of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy and banking system, as well as continued support of the Ukrainian military.
“I think these are the closest and most important steps,” he said in the interview in the Ukrainian capital that lasted for more than an hour.
Zelensky’s remarks followed comments Friday by Trump, who said American and Russian officials were “already talking” about ending the war. Trump said his administration has had “very serious” discussions with Russia, but he did not elaborate.
“They may have their own relations, but talking about Ukraine without us — it is dangerous for everyone,” Zelensky said.
He said his team has been in contact with the Trump administration, but those discussions are at a “general level,” and he believes in-person meetings will take place soon to develop more detailed agreements.
“We need to work more on this,” he said, adding that Trump understandably appeared to be focused on domestic issues in the first weeks after his inauguration.

The nearly three-year war in Ukraine is at a crossroads. Trump promised to end the fighting within six months of taking office, but the two sides are far apart, and it is unclear how a ceasefire deal would take shape. Meanwhile, Russia continues to make slow but steady gains along the front, and Ukrainian forces are enduring severe manpower shortages.
Most Ukrainians want a pause in fighting to rebuild their lives. The country faces near-daily Russian attacks on homes, and strikes on power systems have plunged entire cities into darkness.
Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced, unable to return to their homes after vast tracts of the country’s east have been reduced to rubble. Nearly a fifth of Ukraine is now occupied by Russia. In those areas, Moscow-appointed authorities are swiftly erasing any hint of Ukrainian identity.
With Trump back in the White House, Ukraine’s relationship with the US, its largest and most important ally, is also at a tipping point.
In an initial phone call with Trump during the presidential campaign, Zelensky said, the two agreed that if Trump won, they would meet to discuss the steps needed to end the war. But a planned visit by Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellogg, was postponed “for legal reasons” Zelensky said. That was followed by a sudden foreign aid freeze that effectively caused Ukrainian organizations to halt projects.
“I believe that, first and foremost, we (must) hold a meeting with him, and that is important. And that is, by the way, something that everyone in Europe wants,” Zelensky said, referring to “a common vision of a quick end to the war.”
After the conversation with Trump, “we should move on to some kind of format of conversation with Russians. And I would like to see the United States of America, Ukraine and the Russians at the negotiating table. ... And, to be honest, a European Union voice should also be there. I think it would be fair, effective. But how will it turn out? I don’t know.”
Zelensky cautioned against allowing Putin to take “control” over the war, an apparent reference to Russia’s repeated threats of escalation during President Joe Biden’s administration.
Without security guarantees from Ukraine’s allies, Zelensky said, any deal struck with Russia would only serve as a precursor to future aggression. Membership in the NATO alliance, a longstanding wish for Kyiv that Moscow has categorically rejected, is still Zelensky’s top choice.
NATO membership is the “cheapest” option for Ukraine’s allies, and it would also strengthen Trump geopolitically, Zelensky argued.
“I really believe that these are the cheapest security guarantees that Ukraine can get, the cheapest for everyone,” he said.
“It will be a signal that it is not for Russia to decide who should be in NATO and who should not, but for the United States of America to decide. I think this is a great victory for Trump,” he said, evidently appealing to the president’s penchant for winners and business deals.
In addition, Zelensky said, Ukraine’s 800,000-strong army would be a bonus to the alliance, especially if Trump seeks to bring home US troops who are stationed overseas.
Other security guarantee proposals should be backed up by sufficient weapons from the US and Europe, and support for Kyiv to develop its own defense industry, he said.
Zelensky also said a French proposal to put European forces in Ukraine to act as a deterrent against Russian aggression is taking shape, but he expressed skepticism, saying many questions remained about the command-and-control structure and the number of troops and their positions. The issue was raised by French President Emmanuel Macron and with Trump, he said.
“I said in the presence of the two leaders that we are interested in this as a part of the security guarantee, but not as the only guarantee of safety,” he said. “That’s not enough.”
He added: “Imagine, there is a contingent. The question is who is in charge? Who is the main one? What will they do if there are Russian strikes? Missiles, disembarkation, attack from the sea, crossing of the land borderline, offensive. What will they do? What are their mandates?”
Asked if he put those questions directly to Macron, he smiled and said: “We are still in the process of this dialogue.”
Following a statement by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the war has set Ukraine back by 100 years, Zelensky urged Rubio to visit Ukraine.
Rubio “needs to come to Ukraine, first of all, to see what Russia has done,” the Ukrainian president said. “But also to see what the Ukrainian people did, what they were able to do for the security of Ukraine and the world, as I said, and just talk to these people.”
 


Trump imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, raising prospect of inflation and trade conflict

Updated 02 February 2025
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Trump imposes tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, raising prospect of inflation and trade conflict

  • Trump declared an economic emergency in order to place duties of 10 percent on all imports from China and 25 percent on imports from Mexico and Canada
  • Trump said his decision was necessary “to protect Americans,” although it could throw the global economy and his own political mandate to combat inflation into possible turmoil

PALM BEACH, Florida: President Donald Trump on Saturday signed an order to impose stiff tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China — fulfilling one of his post-campaign commitments to voters that also carries the risk of sparking higher inflation and disrupting businesses across North America.
Trump’s order also includes a mechanism to escalate the rates if the countries retaliate against the US, as they are possibly prepared to do.
The decision throws the global economy and Trump’s own political mandate to combat inflation into possible turmoil, though the Republican president posted on social media that it was necessary “to protect Americans.”
The tariffs risk an economic standoff with America’s two largest trading partners in Mexico and Canada, upending a decades-old trade relationship with the possibility of harsh reprisals by those two nations. The tariffs also if sustained could cause inflation to significantly worsen, possibly eroding voters’ trust that Trump could as promised lower the prices of groceries, gasoline, housing, autos and other goods.

Trump declared an economic emergency in order to place duties of 10 percent on all imports from China and 25 percent on imports from Mexico and Canada. But energy imported from Canada, including oil, natural gas and electricity, would be taxed at a 10 percent rate.
The tariffs would go into effect on Tuesday, setting a showdown in North America that could potentially sabotage economic growth. A new analysis by the Budget Lab at Yale laid out the possible damage to the US economy, saying the average US household would lose the equivalent of $1,170 in income from the taxes. Economic growth would slow and inflation would worsen — and the situation could be worse if Canada, Mexico and China retaliate.

For the moment, Mexico plans to stay cool-headed as it weighs its options.
Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum, appearing Saturday at an event promoting a government housing program outside Mexico City said, “I’m calm, I’ve been saying since yesterday, because I know that Mexico’s economy is very powerful, very strong.”

A senior administration official, insisting on anonymity to brief reporters, said the lower rate on energy reflected a desire to minimize any disruptive increases on the price of gasoline or utilities. That’s a sign White House officials understand the gamble they’re taking on inflation. Price spikes under former President Joe Biden led to voter frustration that helped to return Trump to the White House last year.
The order signed by Trump contained no mechanism for granting exceptions, the official said, a possible blow to homebuilders who rely on Canadian lumber as well as farmers, automakers and other industries.
The Trump administration put the tariffs in place to force the three countries to stop the spread and manufacturing of fentanyl, in addition to pressuring Canada and Mexico to limit any illegal immigration into the United States.

Flags fly above the Peace Arch monument on the border between the US and Canada at Peace Arch Park on February 1, 2025 in Blaine, Washington.(Getty Images via AFP)

The official did not provide specific benchmarks that could be met to lift the new tariffs, saying only that the best measure would be fewer Americans dying from fentanyl addiction.
The order would also allow for tariffs on Canadian imports of less than $800. Imports below that sum are currently able to cross into the United States without customs and duties.
“It doesn’t make much economic sense,’’ said William Reinsch, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former US trade official. “Historically, most of our tariffs on raw materials have been low because we want to get cheaper materials so our manufacturers will be competitive ... Now, what’s he talking about? He’s talking about tariffs on raw materials. I don’t get the economics of it.’’
The Republican president is making a major political bet that his actions will not significantly worsen inflation, cause financial aftershocks that could destabilize the worldwide economy or provoke a voter backlash. AP VoteCast, an extensive survey of the electorate in last year’s election, found that the US was split on support for tariffs.
With the tariffs, Trump is honoring promises that are at the core of his economic and national security philosophy. But the announcement showed his seriousness around the issue as some Trump allies had played down the threat of higher import taxes as mere negotiating tactics.
The president is preparing more import taxes in a sign that tariffs will be an ongoing part of his second term. On Friday, he mentioned imported computer chips, steel, oil and natural gas, as well as against copper, pharmaceutical drugs and imports from the European Union — moves that could essentially pit the US against much of the global economy.
It is unclear how the tariffs could affect the business investments that Trump said would happen because of his plans to cut corporate tax rates and remove regulations. Tariffs tend to raise prices for consumers and businesses by making it more expensive to bring in foreign goods.

A truck carrying vehicles drives into the US at the Otay Mesa Port of Entry, on the US-Mexico border on February 1, 2025 in San Diego, California. (Getty Images via AFP)

Many voters turned to Trump in the November election on the belief that he could better handle the inflation that spiked under Biden. But inflation expectations are creeping upward in the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment as respondents expect prices to rise by 3.3 percent. That would be higher than the actual 2.9 percent annual inflation rate in December’s consumer price index.
Trump has said that the government should raise more of its revenues from tariffs, as it did before the income tax became part of the Constitution in 1913. He claims, despite economic evidence to the contrary, that the US was at its wealthiest in the 1890s under President William McKinley.
“We were the richest country in the world,” Trump said Friday. “We were a tariff country.”
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has told Canadians that they could be facing difficult times ahead, but that Ottawa was prepared to respond with retaliatory tariffs if needed and that the US penalties would be self-sabotaging.
Trudeau said Canada is addressing Trump’s calls on border security by implementing a CDN$1.3 billion ($900 million) border plan that includes helicopters, new canine teams and imaging tools.
Trump still has to get a budget, tax cuts and an increase to the government’s legal borrowing authority through Congress. The outcome of his tariff plans could strengthen his hand or weaken it.
Democrats were quick to say that any inflation going forward was the result of Trump, who is about to start his third week back as president.
“You’re worried about grocery prices. Don’s raising prices with his tariffs,” Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer of New York posted on X. “You’re worried about tomato prices. Wait till Trump’s Mexico tariffs raise your tomato prices. … You’re worried about car prices. Wait till Trump’s Canada tariffs raise your car prices,” he wrote in a series of posts.


US Democrats anoint new leader to take on Trump for ‘working people’

Updated 02 February 2025
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US Democrats anoint new leader to take on Trump for ‘working people’

  • Much of Democratic success going forward will be in how the party presents itself to an American public weary of politics

NATIONAL HARBOR, United States: US Democrats picked a 51-year-old progressive activist on Saturday as their new leader, who must rebuild a party still reeling from last year’s crushing presidential defeat — and figure out how best to oppose Republican Donald Trump.
“The Democratic Party is the party of working people, and it’s time to roll up our sleeves and outcompete everywhere, in every election, and at every level of government,” Ken Martin, the new chairman of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), said in a statement.
The DNC, the party’s governing body, raises millions of dollars each year to support and build infrastructure for candidates across the country, culminating every four years in the presidential election.
Martin, a relative unknown outside of the party, stressed the need for Democrats to reconnect with blue collar voters, and to take the electoral fight to all 50 states — even bastions of conservative politics.
“Donald Trump and his billionaire allies are put on notice — we will hold them accountable for ripping off working families, and we will beat them at the ballot box,” Martin said.
Party grandees were meeting near Washington as the DNC carries out a postmortem of their November loss.
They elevated Martin, formerly the chair of the party’s Minnesota branch, to devise their national battle plan.
“This is not a game of chess where everyone is moving their pieces back and forth in a respectful, timed manner. This is guerilla warfare in political form,” said Katherine Jeanes, deputy digital director of the North Carolina Democratic Party, ahead of the vote.
Maryland Governor Wes Moore, a rising Democratic star, warned that the party must “not to go into hiding until the next general election.”
The moment calls for boldness, added Shasti Conrad, chair of the party’s Washington state branch, saying that many Americans have lost the faith.
“They don’t trust us to be able to make things better. They don’t trust that when we are given power, that we know how to use it,” Conrad said.
And the fight starts now, she added — there can be no waiting until the next presidential election, set for 2028.
Facing a Republican majority in Congress and a second term for Trump, who has roared back into the White House with all the provocative rhetoric of his first administration, Democrats say they must pick their battles.
“We have to be able to decipher crazy rhetoric versus policy violence,” said Conrad, and not be like a “dog chasing the car.”
While many are “exhausted” after the last election campaign, Jeanes said the party must learn to respond to the frantic pace of shock moves from the Trump administration.
Much of Democratic success going forward will be in how the party presents itself to an American public weary of politics.
That includes engaging with voters “in places that have sometimes been uncomfortable” for Democrats, according to Conrad.
After his victory in November, Trump credited a series of interviews on largely right-wing podcasts, including the popular “Joe Rogan Experience,” for aiding his return to the White House.
“We need to be getting on sports podcasts and video games and trying to make sure that we’re reaching into apolitical spaces,” Jeanes said.


US military conducts airstrikes against Daesh operatives in Somalia

Updated 01 February 2025
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US military conducts airstrikes against Daesh operatives in Somalia

  • US military officials have warned that Daesh cells have received increasing direction from the group’s leadership that relocated to northern Somalia

WASHINGTON: The US military has conducted airstrikes against Daesh operatives in Somalia, the first attacks in the African nation during President Donald Trump’s second term.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Saturday that the strikes by US Africa Command were directed by Trump and coordinated with Somalia’s government.
An initial assessment by the Pentagon indicated that “multiple” operatives were killed. The Pentagon said it assessed that no civilians were harmed in the strikes.
Trump, in a post on social media, said a senior Daesh planner and recruits were targeted in the operation.
“The strikes destroyed the caves they live in, and killed many terrorists without, in any way, harming civilians. Our Military has targeted this Daesh Attack Planner for years, but Biden and his cronies wouldn’t act quickly enough to get the job done. I did!” Trump said. “The message to Daesh and all others who would attack Americans is that “WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!”
Trump did not identify the Daesh planner or say whether that person was killed in the strike. White House officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
The Pentagon’s counterterrorism strategy in Africa has been strained as two key partners, Chad and Niger, ousted US forces last year and took over key bases that the US military had used to train and conduct missions against terrorist groups across the Sahel, the vast arid expanse south of the Sahara Desert.
US military officials have warned that Daesh cells have received increasing direction from the group’s leadership that relocated to northern Somalia. That has included how to kidnap Westerners for ransom, how to learn better military tactics, how to hide from drones and how to build their own small quadcopters.
The Daesh affiliate in Somalia emerged in 2015 as a breakaway faction from Al-Shabab, Al-Qaeda’s East African link, and is most active in Puntland, particularly in the Galgala Mountains, where it has established hideouts and training camps and is led by Abdulkadir Mumin.
While its influence is relatively limited compared to Al-Shabab, Daesh in Somalia has been involved in attacks in southern and central Somalia. The group funds its activities through extortion, smuggling, and illicit taxation, particularly in some coastal areas where it has attempted to control local businesses.
Despite facing counterterrorism pressure from Somali security forces, US airstrikes and Al-Shabab rivalries, it continues to operate in remote and urban areas, seeking to expand its influence through recruitment and propaganda.
The number of Daesh militants in the country are estimated to be in the hundreds, mostly scattered in the Cal Miskaat mountains in Puntland’s Bari region, according to the International Crisis Group.
Saturday’s operation followed military airstrikes on Jan. 30 in northwest Syria, killing a senior operative in Hurras Al-Din, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, US Central Command said.