Look Ahead at 2024: Arab world enters the new year with a mix of hope, tension and trepidation

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Updated 03 January 2024
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Look Ahead at 2024: Arab world enters the new year with a mix of hope, tension and trepidation

  • From Lebanon and Gaza to Syria and Sudan, crises and conflicts are likely to linger well into 2024
  • Successes in trade, tourism and diplomacy offer glimmer of hope amid an otherwise gloomy start to the year

IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: As 2023 moves into the rearview mirror, the Middle East and North Africa can look ahead to the new year with a mixture of hope and trepidation.

For many in the region, it has been a tumultuous 12 months, featuring some of the worst violence and natural disasters in years.

While several conflicts are likely to continue into 2024, not least in Gaza and Sudan, there are some positive signs for the new year.

Unified GCC visa

Over in the Arabian Gulf, travelers may soon be able to apply for a unified Gulf Cooperation Council visa.




The unified GCC tourism visa is latest step in growing tourist industry in Gulf. (AFP)

Unveiled in October by Abdulla bin Touq, the UAE minister of economy, the single visa will permit travelers to visit all six members of the Gulf alliance — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The new travel permit is billed as the Gulf’s equivalent of the European Schengen visa, with the potential for transforming the region’s travel, tourism and hospitality industries.

New BRICS members

The five-member intergovernmental organization BRICS, often touted as a rival to the G7 bloc, could expand.

At the bloc’s summit in South Africa last August, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, and Argentina were invited to join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as part of the trading body of emerging economies.




A woman stands near the flags of South Africa, Brazil, Russia, India and China during the 2023 BRICS Summit at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg on August 24, 2023. (AFP/File)

At the time, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the Saudi foreign minister, said that the Kingdom was studying the proposal and could become a leading member of the bloc, given its vast resources and strategically important location.

The group has set its sights on a new, multipolar world, in which financial and political institutions are no longer dominated by a few Western powers. However, Riyadh is yet to give a definitive answer, while Argentina’s incoming government has ruled out joining.

Time will tell whether BRICS will expand as planned.

Israel-Hamas war

Israel has been engaged in an unprecedented war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, triggered by the killing by Palestinian militants of at least 1,200 people and abduction of another 240 on Oct. 7.

Israel’s retaliatory operations have pulverized swathes of Gaza, killing more than 20,000 people and injuring another 50,000 — 70 percent of them women and children, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry — causing a dire humanitarian crisis.




Palestinians evacuate from a site hit by an Israeli bombardment on Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 20, 2023. (AP Photo)

Despite efforts to secure another temporary ceasefire, the conflict is likely to continue into 2024.

Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, has repeatedly warned that the operation will take “months” to conclude and that Israel will “not stop until we reach our goals.”

Meanwhile, Hamas has said it is unwilling to negotiate the release of additional hostages until Israel ceases operations in Gaza.

Leadership changes

The Oct. 7 attack led by Hamas militants was a massive political setback for Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who has long depicted himself as the guardian of the nation’s security.




Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chairs a cabinet meeting at the Kirya military base, which houses the Israeli Ministry of Defense, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Dec . 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Pool)

Although it is unlikely he will be replaced while the war in Gaza continues, there is a chance he will be voted out of office once it ends. One recent poll found just 27 percent of Israelis believe Netanyahu is fit to serve as prime minister.

Briefly voted out of office in 2021, Netanyahu returned to power in late 2022, leading the most right-wing Israeli government in history.

He then went on to push through an unpopular judicial overhaul that led to massive protests in 2023 and threats of desertion by military personnel. It is likely that 2024 will be his last year in office.

It may also be the year that Iran’s 84-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, relinquishes power in the Islamic Republic.

Amid rising regional tensions, the country may end up under the control of his 54-year-old son, Mojtaba, to ensure the continuation and survival of the clerical regime that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution.

Grand Egyptian Museum opening

In the first quarter of 2024, Egypt hopes to finally open the long-awaited Grand Egyptian Museum, situated near the Giza pyramid complex on the outskirts of Cairo.

After 20 years of planning and $1 billion in spending, the largest archaeological museum on the planet will feature more than 100,000 artifacts from Egypt’s ancient civilization, many of which have never been displayed in public before.




The long-awaited Grand Egyptian Museum, near the Giza pyramid complex on the outskirts of Cairo. (Supplied)

Sudan deterioration

Sudan has been plagued by violence since fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on April 15.

A total of 6.3 million people have been displaced since April alone, adding to the 3.7 million Sudanese who had already fled their homes during previous conflicts, along with 1.1 million foreigners who had earlier sought refuge in Sudan.

More than 1.4 million Sudanese have sought shelter in neighboring countries since the onset of the conflict. With no end in sight, the conflict in Sudan will undoubtedly continue into 2024, and possibly beyond.

Sudan has topped the International Rescue Committee’s 2024 Emergency Watchlist of “countries most likely to experience a deteriorating humanitarian crisis” due to the “escalating conflict, mass displacement, an economic crisis and a near collapse of health care services.”




Some 6.3 million people have been displaced in Sudan's war since April. (AP/File)

Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi

The first Hindu temple in the UAE capital, Abu Dhabi, is set to open in February. The temple will be inaugurated by Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, after seven deities are consecrated and blessed in special morning prayers.

Modi had launched the project in 2018 when he revealed the first model showing a monument with seven spires to reflect the seven emirates. Sculpting work began in 2020 and the temple’s distinct shape and carved pink stonework nowsoar from the desert landscape.

The hand-carved structure is being constructed on more than 5.4 hectares of land given to the Indian community in 2015 by President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed when he was the crown prince of Abu Dhabi.

Yemen settlement

There are hopes that the truce between the Houthi militia and the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen could become a permanent ceasefire agreement in 2024.

A two-month UN-negotiated truce came into effect in April 2022 and formally ended the following October. However, hostilities did not recommence.




A Yemeni man stands amid the ruins of a school and a bowling club hit by an air-strike in the capital Sanaa, on February 12, 2016. (AFP)

Saudi Arabia praised the “positive results” of negotiations with the Houthis in September after a visit by a delegation from the group.

However, since the eruption of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, the Houthi militia has intensified its attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

While this has caused additional tensions, it is widely expected to delay rather than scuttle a ceasefire agreement that could lead to a lasting settlement to the Yemen conflict.

Iran nuclear enrichment

Another issue that is likely to continue into 2024 is the advancement of Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran continued to stockpile uranium enriched to 60 percent throughout 2023, giving Tehran the capacity to quickly enrich this material to weapons-grade levels of about 90 percent.




A handout picture provided by the Iranian presidency on October 8, 2021 shows Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi (R), accompanied by chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami, visiting the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, southeast of the city of the same name. (Iranian Presidency / AFP)

In December, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s foreign minister, dubbed any attempt to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which put restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program in return for sanctions relief from the West, a “useless” endeavor.

Iran has “increased its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a previous output reduction from mid-2023,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement in December summarizing a recent confidential report to member states.

Water and food security

The Middle East and North Africa will continue to grapple with water and food security issues in 2024, with Iraq being particularly vulnerable.

Climate change and regional tensions have reduced river and groundwater levels, especially in the country’s more arid south. The UN considers Iraq the world’s fifth most climate vulnerable country.




Buffaloes wallow in wastewater pooling on the bed of the dried-up Diyala river in Iraq, considered the world’s fifth most climate vulnerable country. (AFP/File)

The most populous Arab country has faced increasing food security issues over the past 12 months, which will likely drag on into 2024.

Egypt has relied heavily on imported wheat, becoming the biggest importer in the world in recent years in order to feed its population, particularly its poor, who are dependent on subsidies.

Two developments in 2023 in particular have compounded Egyptian food security concerns: Russia’s withdrawal from the UN- and Turkiye-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative and India’s decision to impose restrictions on the export of non-basmati varieties of rice and other food staples.

GERD dam divide

Egypt and Ethiopia are likely to remain locked in a simmering dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Years of stop-start talks over the shared management of the Nile river have proved unsuccessful, making open conflict a real possibility.




A general view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba, Ethiopia, which has been a source of discord pitting Ethiopia against Egypt and Sudan. (AFP/File)

Egypt has long opposed Ethiopia’s dam project because of concerns over its water supply. Sudan, another downstream country, has likewise expressed worries about the regulation of its own water supplies and dams.

Ethiopia, which argues that it is exercising its right to economic development, said in September it had completed its final phase of filling a reservoir for a massive hydroelectric power plant at the dam on the Blue Nile.

In December, Egypt said that the latest talks had also failed, but it would continue to monitor the process of filling and operating the dam.

Captagon trade persistence

The many challenges posed by the illicit trade in the stimulant commonly known as Captagon are expected to continue into 2024.




A decade of appalling civil war has left Syria fragmented and in ruins but one thing crosses every frontline: the drug fenethylline, commercially known as Captagon. The stimulant has spawned an illegal $10-billion industry that not only props up the pariah regime of President Bashar al-Assad, but many of his enemies. (AFP/File)

Syria is estimated to produce about 80 percent of the world’s supply of the narcotic, exporting it across the Middle East, with a particular focus on the Gulf market.

According to Western governments, Captagon exports net sanctions-squeezed Damascus billions of dollars in much-needed revenues each year.

Regional governments have intercepted several massive shipments of the drug, often making busts of hundreds of thousands or even millions of pills.

On Dec. 18, Jordan launched several cross-border air raids against Syria, targeting hideouts of drug smugglers.

 


Activist Gaza aid boat slams Israel ‘threat’

Updated 05 June 2025
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Activist Gaza aid boat slams Israel ‘threat’

ROME: International activists seeking to sail an aid boat to Gaza condemned Wednesday what they called Israel’s threats and “declared intent to attack” their vessel as it crosses the Mediterranean.
Israel’s military said Tuesday it was ready to “protect” the country’s seas, after the vessel — the Madleen, sailed by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition — left Sicily on Sunday carrying around a dozen people, including environmental activist Greta Thunberg.
“The navy operates day and night to protect Israel’s maritime space and borders at sea,” army spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said.
Asked about the aid vessel, he said: “For this case as well, we are prepared.”
He added: “We have gained experience in recent years, and we will act accordingly.”
In a statement on Wednesday, the activist coalition said it “strongly condemns Israel’s declared intent to attack Madleen,” calling it a “threat.”
“Madleen carries humanitarian aid and international human rights defenders in direct challenge to Israel’s illegal, decades-long blockade, and ongoing genocide” in Gaza, it said.
Israel has come under increasing international criticism over the dire humanitarian situation in the Palestinian territory, where the United Nations warned in May that the entire population was at risk of famine.
The Freedom Flotilla Coalition, launched in 2010, is an international movement supporting Palestinians, combining humanitarian aid with political protest against the blockade on Gaza.
The Madleen is a small sailboat reportedly carrying fruit juices, milk, rice, tinned food and protein bars.
In early May, the Freedom Flotilla ship Conscience was damaged in international waters off Malta as it headed to Gaza, with the activists saying they suspected an Israeli drone attack.
The coalition said that on Tuesday evening, off the coast of the Greek island of Crete, the Madleen “was approached and circled by a drone, followed, several hours later by two additional drones.”
It said it was later informed these were surveillance drones operated by the Greek coast guard, EU border agency Frontex or both.
Israel recently eased a more than two-month blockade on war-ravaged Gaza, but the aid community has urged it to allow in more food, faster.
 


IAEA head in Damascus to discuss nuclear power

Updated 04 June 2025
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IAEA head in Damascus to discuss nuclear power

  • The IAEA has urged Syria repeatedly to cooperate fully with the agency in connection to a suspected nuclear reactor at the Deir Ezzor desert site

DAMASCUS: UN nuclear watchdog head Rafael Grossi said Wednesday his agency and Syrian authorities would begin “exploring the possibility of nuclear power,” on his first visit to Damascus since the ouster of Bashar Assad.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has repeatedly been at loggerheads with Syria in the past over what it says are “unresolved issues” regarding suspected nuclear activities.
On his visit, the IAEA chief met with Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa and Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shaibani.
“Honoured to meet Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa in Damascus. I recognize his courage in cooperating with full transparency to close a chapter of Syria’s past that diverted resources necessary for development,” Grossi said in a post on X.
He said the two sides “will also begin exploring the possibility of nuclear power in Syria.”
“Our cooperation is key to closing outstanding issues and focusing on the much needed help IAEA can provide Syria in health and agriculture,” he added.
The IAEA has urged Syria repeatedly to cooperate fully with the agency in connection to a suspected nuclear reactor at the Deir Ezzor desert site.
Israel in 2018 admitted carrying out a top-secret air raid in 2007 against what it said was a nuclear reactor under construction at the site in eastern Syria.
Syria had denied it was building a nuclear reactor.
Grossi visited Damascus in March last year, meeting then president Assad who was overthrown in December after nearly 14 years of civil war.
Grossi told an IAEA Board of Governors meeting in March this year that he had requested Syria’s cooperation to “fulfil our obligation to verify nuclear material and facilities” and to “address unresolved issues.”
“Clarifying these issues remains essential to Syria demonstrating its commitment to nuclear non-proliferation and international peace and security,” he said at the time.


Sudan’s former premier Hamdok says recent military gains won’t end the war

Updated 04 June 2025
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Sudan’s former premier Hamdok says recent military gains won’t end the war

MARRAKECH: Sudan’s former prime minister on Wednesday dismissed the military’s moves to form a new government as “fake,” saying its recent victories in recapturing the capital Khartoum and other territory will not end the country’s two-year civil war.

Abdalla Hamdok said no military victory, in Khartoum or elsewhere, could end the war that has killed tens of thousands and driven millions from their homes.

“Whether Khartoum is captured or not captured, it’s irrelevant,” Hamdok said on the sidelines of the Mo Ibrahim Foundation’s governance conference in Morocco. 

“There is no military solution to this. No side will be able to have outright victory.”

Hamdok became Sudan’s first civilian prime minister after decades of military rule in 2019, trying to lead a democratic transition. He resigned in January 2022 after a turbulent stretch in which he was ousted in a coup and briefly reinstated amid international pressure.

The following year, warring generals plunged the country into civil war. Sudan today bears the grim distinction of being home to some of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.

Fighting between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has left at least 24,000 dead, though many believe the true toll is far worse.

Both sides stand accused of war crimes. 

The RSF, with roots in Darfur’s notorious Janjaweed militia, has been accused of carrying out genocide. The army is accused of unleashing chemical weapons and targeting civilians where they live.

The war has driven about 13 million people from their homes, including 4 million who have crossed into neighboring countries. Famine is setting in and cholera is sweeping through.

The military recaptured the Khartoum area from the RSF in March, as well as some surrounding territory. Army chief Gen. Abdel-Fattah Al-Burhan has framed the advances as a major turning point in the conflict.

Last month, he appointed a new prime minister, Kamil Al-Taib Idris, for the first time since the war began, tasked with forming a new government. But the fighting has continued. 

The RSF has regrouped in its stronghold in Darfur and made advances elsewhere, including in Kordofan.

Hamdok, a 69-year-old former economist who now leads a civilian coalition from exile, called the idea that the conflict was drawing down “total nonsense.” The idea that reconstruction can begin in Khartoum while fighting rages elsewhere is “absolutely ridiculous,” he said.

“Any attempt at creating a government in Sudan today is fake. It is irrelevant,” he said, arguing that lasting peace can’t be secured without addressing the root causes of the war.

Hamdok said a ceasefire and a credible process to restore democratic, civilian rule would need to confront Sudan’s deep inequalities, including uneven development, issues among different identity groups and questions about the role of religion in government.

“Trusting the soldiers to bring democracy is a false pretense,” he added.

Though rooted in longstanding divisions, the war has been supercharged by foreign powers accused of arming both sides.

Pro-democracy groups, including Hamdok’s Somoud coalition, have condemned atrocities committed by both the army and the RSF.

“What we would like to see is anybody who is supplying arms to any side to stop,” he said.


Egypt says the sovereignty of a famous monastery is assured

Updated 04 June 2025
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Egypt says the sovereignty of a famous monastery is assured

  • Egypt’s foreign minister assured his Greek counterpart that the spiritual and religious value of Saint Catherine Monastery will be preserved

CAIRO: Egypt says the sovereignty of a famous monastery is assured.
Egypt’s foreign minister on Wednesday told his Greek counterpart that the spiritual and religious value of the Saint Catherine Monastery and surrounding archaeological sites will be preserved. That’s according to a statement.
The Greek Orthodox Church had been concerned after an administrative court said the state owns the land but affirmed the monks’ right to use the site.
The Patriarchate of Jerusalem last week expressed concern and said “it is our sacred obligation to ensure that Christian worship continues on this holy ground, as it has done for 17 centuries.” It acknowledged Egypt’s assurances there would be no infringement.
Egypt’s presidency last week said the ruling consolidates the state’s commitment to preserve the monastery’s religious status.


UN calls for probe into Libya mass graves

Updated 04 June 2025
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UN calls for probe into Libya mass graves

  • UN rights chief ‘shocked’ as dozens of bodies discovered in a section of Libyan capital run by armed militia

GENEVA: The UN human rights office called on Wednesday for an independent investigation into the discovery of mass graves at detention centers in Libya’s capital Tripoli.

It expressed concerns about the discovery of dozens of bodies, some charred and buried and others in hospital refrigerators, in an area of Libya’s capital controlled by an armed militia whose leader was killed last month.

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said he was shocked by revelations that gross rights violations were uncovered at detention facilities in Tripoli run by the Stabilization Support Authority, or SSA, an armed group whose commander, Abdel-Ghani Al-Kikli, was killed in militia fighting in mid-May.

It was established to uphold the rule of law and falls under the Presidential Council that came to power in 2021 with the Government of National Unity of Abdul Hamid Dbeibah through a UN-backed process.

The rights office said it later received information on the excavation of 10 charred bodies at the SSA headquarters in the Abu Salim neighborhood and another 67 bodies discovered in refrigerators in the Abu Salim and Al-Khadra Hospitals. 

It also cited reports of a burial site at the Tripoli Zoo that was run by the SSA.

The office said the identities of the bodies were not immediately clear. “Our worst-held fears are being confirmed: Dozens of bodies have been discovered at these sites, along with the discovery of suspected instruments of torture and abuse, and potential evidence of extrajudicial killings,” Türk said in a statement.

Türk called on authorities to seal the area to preserve evidence and said there needed to be accountability for the killings. He said the UN should be granted access to the sites to document rights violations.

Libya, a major oil producer in the Mediterranean, has known little law and order since a 2011 NATO-backed uprising that toppled dictator Muammar Qaddafi and eventually divided the country between warring eastern and western factions.

The rights body said the discovery of dozens of bodies and suspected instruments of torture and abuse confirmed longstanding findings by the UN that human rights violations were committed at such sites.

“We call on the Libyan authorities to conduct independent, impartial and transparent investigations into these discoveries,” it said in a statement. It urged the authorities to preserve evidence and grant Libya’s forensic teams, as well as the United Nations, full access to the sites.

Outright war fighting in Libya abated with a ceasefire in 2020. However, efforts to end the political crisis have failed, with major factions occasionally joining forces in armed clashes and competing for control over Libya’s substantial energy resources.

Armed clashes erupted on Monday evening and gunfire echoed in the center and other parts of Tripoli following reports that the commander of one of its most powerful armed groups had been killed, three residents said by phone.