Look Ahead at 2024: Arab world enters the new year with a mix of hope, tension and trepidation

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Updated 03 January 2024
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Look Ahead at 2024: Arab world enters the new year with a mix of hope, tension and trepidation

  • From Lebanon and Gaza to Syria and Sudan, crises and conflicts are likely to linger well into 2024
  • Successes in trade, tourism and diplomacy offer glimmer of hope amid an otherwise gloomy start to the year

IRBIL, Iraqi Kurdistan: As 2023 moves into the rearview mirror, the Middle East and North Africa can look ahead to the new year with a mixture of hope and trepidation.

For many in the region, it has been a tumultuous 12 months, featuring some of the worst violence and natural disasters in years.

While several conflicts are likely to continue into 2024, not least in Gaza and Sudan, there are some positive signs for the new year.

Unified GCC visa

Over in the Arabian Gulf, travelers may soon be able to apply for a unified Gulf Cooperation Council visa.




The unified GCC tourism visa is latest step in growing tourist industry in Gulf. (AFP)

Unveiled in October by Abdulla bin Touq, the UAE minister of economy, the single visa will permit travelers to visit all six members of the Gulf alliance — Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The new travel permit is billed as the Gulf’s equivalent of the European Schengen visa, with the potential for transforming the region’s travel, tourism and hospitality industries.

New BRICS members

The five-member intergovernmental organization BRICS, often touted as a rival to the G7 bloc, could expand.

At the bloc’s summit in South Africa last August, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, and Argentina were invited to join Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa as part of the trading body of emerging economies.




A woman stands near the flags of South Africa, Brazil, Russia, India and China during the 2023 BRICS Summit at the Sandton Convention Centre in Johannesburg on August 24, 2023. (AFP/File)

At the time, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, the Saudi foreign minister, said that the Kingdom was studying the proposal and could become a leading member of the bloc, given its vast resources and strategically important location.

The group has set its sights on a new, multipolar world, in which financial and political institutions are no longer dominated by a few Western powers. However, Riyadh is yet to give a definitive answer, while Argentina’s incoming government has ruled out joining.

Time will tell whether BRICS will expand as planned.

Israel-Hamas war

Israel has been engaged in an unprecedented war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, triggered by the killing by Palestinian militants of at least 1,200 people and abduction of another 240 on Oct. 7.

Israel’s retaliatory operations have pulverized swathes of Gaza, killing more than 20,000 people and injuring another 50,000 — 70 percent of them women and children, according to the Hamas-run Health Ministry — causing a dire humanitarian crisis.




Palestinians evacuate from a site hit by an Israeli bombardment on Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, on Dec. 20, 2023. (AP Photo)

Despite efforts to secure another temporary ceasefire, the conflict is likely to continue into 2024.

Yoav Gallant, the Israeli defense minister, has repeatedly warned that the operation will take “months” to conclude and that Israel will “not stop until we reach our goals.”

Meanwhile, Hamas has said it is unwilling to negotiate the release of additional hostages until Israel ceases operations in Gaza.

Leadership changes

The Oct. 7 attack led by Hamas militants was a massive political setback for Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who has long depicted himself as the guardian of the nation’s security.




Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu chairs a cabinet meeting at the Kirya military base, which houses the Israeli Ministry of Defense, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Dec . 24, 2023. (AP Photo/Pool)

Although it is unlikely he will be replaced while the war in Gaza continues, there is a chance he will be voted out of office once it ends. One recent poll found just 27 percent of Israelis believe Netanyahu is fit to serve as prime minister.

Briefly voted out of office in 2021, Netanyahu returned to power in late 2022, leading the most right-wing Israeli government in history.

He then went on to push through an unpopular judicial overhaul that led to massive protests in 2023 and threats of desertion by military personnel. It is likely that 2024 will be his last year in office.

It may also be the year that Iran’s 84-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, relinquishes power in the Islamic Republic.

Amid rising regional tensions, the country may end up under the control of his 54-year-old son, Mojtaba, to ensure the continuation and survival of the clerical regime that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution.

Grand Egyptian Museum opening

In the first quarter of 2024, Egypt hopes to finally open the long-awaited Grand Egyptian Museum, situated near the Giza pyramid complex on the outskirts of Cairo.

After 20 years of planning and $1 billion in spending, the largest archaeological museum on the planet will feature more than 100,000 artifacts from Egypt’s ancient civilization, many of which have never been displayed in public before.




The long-awaited Grand Egyptian Museum, near the Giza pyramid complex on the outskirts of Cairo. (Supplied)

Sudan deterioration

Sudan has been plagued by violence since fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on April 15.

A total of 6.3 million people have been displaced since April alone, adding to the 3.7 million Sudanese who had already fled their homes during previous conflicts, along with 1.1 million foreigners who had earlier sought refuge in Sudan.

More than 1.4 million Sudanese have sought shelter in neighboring countries since the onset of the conflict. With no end in sight, the conflict in Sudan will undoubtedly continue into 2024, and possibly beyond.

Sudan has topped the International Rescue Committee’s 2024 Emergency Watchlist of “countries most likely to experience a deteriorating humanitarian crisis” due to the “escalating conflict, mass displacement, an economic crisis and a near collapse of health care services.”




Some 6.3 million people have been displaced in Sudan's war since April. (AP/File)

Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi

The first Hindu temple in the UAE capital, Abu Dhabi, is set to open in February. The temple will be inaugurated by Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, after seven deities are consecrated and blessed in special morning prayers.

Modi had launched the project in 2018 when he revealed the first model showing a monument with seven spires to reflect the seven emirates. Sculpting work began in 2020 and the temple’s distinct shape and carved pink stonework nowsoar from the desert landscape.

The hand-carved structure is being constructed on more than 5.4 hectares of land given to the Indian community in 2015 by President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed when he was the crown prince of Abu Dhabi.

Yemen settlement

There are hopes that the truce between the Houthi militia and the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen could become a permanent ceasefire agreement in 2024.

A two-month UN-negotiated truce came into effect in April 2022 and formally ended the following October. However, hostilities did not recommence.




A Yemeni man stands amid the ruins of a school and a bowling club hit by an air-strike in the capital Sanaa, on February 12, 2016. (AFP)

Saudi Arabia praised the “positive results” of negotiations with the Houthis in September after a visit by a delegation from the group.

However, since the eruption of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, the Houthi militia has intensified its attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

While this has caused additional tensions, it is widely expected to delay rather than scuttle a ceasefire agreement that could lead to a lasting settlement to the Yemen conflict.

Iran nuclear enrichment

Another issue that is likely to continue into 2024 is the advancement of Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran continued to stockpile uranium enriched to 60 percent throughout 2023, giving Tehran the capacity to quickly enrich this material to weapons-grade levels of about 90 percent.




A handout picture provided by the Iranian presidency on October 8, 2021 shows Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi (R), accompanied by chief of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Mohammad Eslami, visiting the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant, southeast of the city of the same name. (Iranian Presidency / AFP)

In December, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s foreign minister, dubbed any attempt to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which put restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program in return for sanctions relief from the West, a “useless” endeavor.

Iran has “increased its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a previous output reduction from mid-2023,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement in December summarizing a recent confidential report to member states.

Water and food security

The Middle East and North Africa will continue to grapple with water and food security issues in 2024, with Iraq being particularly vulnerable.

Climate change and regional tensions have reduced river and groundwater levels, especially in the country’s more arid south. The UN considers Iraq the world’s fifth most climate vulnerable country.




Buffaloes wallow in wastewater pooling on the bed of the dried-up Diyala river in Iraq, considered the world’s fifth most climate vulnerable country. (AFP/File)

The most populous Arab country has faced increasing food security issues over the past 12 months, which will likely drag on into 2024.

Egypt has relied heavily on imported wheat, becoming the biggest importer in the world in recent years in order to feed its population, particularly its poor, who are dependent on subsidies.

Two developments in 2023 in particular have compounded Egyptian food security concerns: Russia’s withdrawal from the UN- and Turkiye-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative and India’s decision to impose restrictions on the export of non-basmati varieties of rice and other food staples.

GERD dam divide

Egypt and Ethiopia are likely to remain locked in a simmering dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Years of stop-start talks over the shared management of the Nile river have proved unsuccessful, making open conflict a real possibility.




A general view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in Guba, Ethiopia, which has been a source of discord pitting Ethiopia against Egypt and Sudan. (AFP/File)

Egypt has long opposed Ethiopia’s dam project because of concerns over its water supply. Sudan, another downstream country, has likewise expressed worries about the regulation of its own water supplies and dams.

Ethiopia, which argues that it is exercising its right to economic development, said in September it had completed its final phase of filling a reservoir for a massive hydroelectric power plant at the dam on the Blue Nile.

In December, Egypt said that the latest talks had also failed, but it would continue to monitor the process of filling and operating the dam.

Captagon trade persistence

The many challenges posed by the illicit trade in the stimulant commonly known as Captagon are expected to continue into 2024.




A decade of appalling civil war has left Syria fragmented and in ruins but one thing crosses every frontline: the drug fenethylline, commercially known as Captagon. The stimulant has spawned an illegal $10-billion industry that not only props up the pariah regime of President Bashar al-Assad, but many of his enemies. (AFP/File)

Syria is estimated to produce about 80 percent of the world’s supply of the narcotic, exporting it across the Middle East, with a particular focus on the Gulf market.

According to Western governments, Captagon exports net sanctions-squeezed Damascus billions of dollars in much-needed revenues each year.

Regional governments have intercepted several massive shipments of the drug, often making busts of hundreds of thousands or even millions of pills.

On Dec. 18, Jordan launched several cross-border air raids against Syria, targeting hideouts of drug smugglers.

 


Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group says

An injured man is treated in a hospital, amid the Iran-Israel conflict, in Tehran, Iran, June 21, 2025. (REUTERS)
Updated 23 June 2025
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Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group says

  • US to strike Iran ”will be a legitimate target for our armed forces,” the state-run IRNA news agency reported

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates: Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 950 people and wounded 3,450 others, a human rights group said Monday.
The Washington-based group Human Rights Activists offered the figures, which covers the entirety of Iran. It said of those dead, it identified 380 civilians and 253 security force personnel being killed.
Human Rights Activists, which also provided detailed casualty figures during the 2022 protests over the death of Mahsa Amini, crosschecks local reports in the Islamic Republic against a network of sources it has developed in the country.
Iran has not been offering regular death tolls during the conflict and has minimized casualties in the past. On Saturday, Iran’s Health Ministry said some 400 Iranians had been killed and another 3,056 wounded in the Israeli strikes.

 

 

 


What do we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

Updated 23 June 2025
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What do we know about US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities?

  • Tehran says damage limited, no radiation leaks after Trump declares Iran’s uranium-enrichment capabilities destroyed
  • Assault involved 14 bunker-buster bombs, more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles and over 125 military aircraft

DUBAI: Amid mounting speculation, the US launched air strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities on Saturday.

The operation aimed to support Israel in its war against Iran — ongoing since June 13 — by crippling Tehran’s uranium enrichment capacity, according to Asharq News.

US President Donald Trump later announced that Iran’s uranium-enrichment abilities had been eliminated, warning Tehran against any “retaliatory response.” Tehran, however, described the damage as “limited” and dismissed any indications of radiation leaks.

US President Donald Trump addresses the nation from the White House in Washington on June 21, 2025, following the announcement that the US bombed nuclear sites in Iran. (POOL / AFP)

The US strikes included 14 bunker-buster bombs, more than two dozen Tomahawk missiles and over 125 military aircraft, in an operation the top US general, General Dan Caine, said was named “Operation Midnight.”

Asharq News reported that the strikes targeted three critical nuclear facilities instrumental in Iran’s nuclear fuel cycle: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear complex.

These sites span the entire fuel-enrichment chain — from raw uranium conversion, through enrichment, to the production of fuel and technical components for research reactors.

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• The B-2 completed its first-ever combat deployment in Iraq, flying 22 sorties and releasing more than 1.5 million pounds of munitions.

This handout satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on December 11, 2020 shows an overview of Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), northeast of the Iranian city of Qom. (AFP)

Fordo facility

Location and structure: Fordo is 30 kilometers northeast of Qom, embedded within a mountain at an altitude of approximately 1,750 m, with over 80 meters of rock and volcanic shielding — making it one of Iran’s most fortified sites.

Technical role: It houses two underground halls that can hold about 3,000 IR-1 centrifuges, enriching uranium up to 60 percent — a level nearing weapons -grade.

Strategic importance: It is a primary target in any military effort to prevent Iran from achieving nuclear military capability, due to its high capacity and protection.

This handout satellite image courtesy of Maxar Technologies shows Iran's shows Natanz nuclear research center in the central Iranian province of Isfahan. (AFP) 

Natanz reactor

Location and structure: Situated near Kashan in central Iran, partially buried under about 8 meters of earth with a 220meter-thick concrete roof, naturally shielded by surrounding mountainous terrain.

Technical role: Contains primary and experimental plants with over 14,000 centrifuges (IR-1, IR-2m, IR-4, IR-6), making it Iran’s main industrial enrichment hub.

Strategic importance: Responsible for producing most of Iran’s low-enriched uranium and plays a key role in centrifuge development.

This handout satellite picture provided by Maxar Technologies and taken on June 22, 2025, shows damage after US strikes on the Isfahan nuclear enrichment facility in central Iran. (AFP)

Isfahan nuclear complex

Location and structure: Located south of Isfahan on an arid plateau away from populated areas, it is neither buried nor heavily fortified.

Technical role: Includes a Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF); a research reactor fuel production plant; and a metallic fuel pelletizing plant, and three research reactors.

Strategic importance: Serves as the backbone of Iran’s nuclear research and production infrastructure, supplying both Natanz and Fordo.

The Pentagon used some of the world’s most advanced aircraft for Saturday’s strikes. The B-2 Spirit is a multi-role bomber capable of delivering both conventional and nuclear munitions.

The bomber represents a major milestone in the US bomber modernization program. The B-2 brings massive firepower to bear anywhere on the globe through seemingly impenetrable defenses.

A B-2 bomber has a range over 11,000 km without refueling, capable of global reach from distant American bases. (Getty Images via AFP)

According to US officials, the bombers that carried out the Iran strikes flew for nearly 37 hours non-stop from its Missouri base, refueling in mid-air multiple times before striking in the early hours of Sunday.

A B-2 bomber offers several key advantages, primarily due to its stealth capabilities and global reach.

• A range over 11,000 km without refueling, capable of global reach from distant American bases.

• Stealth abilities such as flying-wing design and radar-absorbing materials that allow it to evade air defenses.

• It can carry both nuclear and conventional weapons, including the GBU‑57 bunker-buster bomb.

Initial reports quoted by Asharq News indicated that Fordo was hit with the GBU‑57, the most powerful US conventional bunker buster, designed for deeply buried targets like Fordo, which lies 90 meters underground. Fox News reported six bunker-busting bombs were dropped on Fordo, alongside approximately 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles fired at Natanz and Isfahan.

The GBU‑57 ‘Massive Ordnance Penetrator’ was designed by American military engineers to devastate deeply buried bunkers without radioactive fallout. It was the only nonnuclear weapon that could reach Iran’s hardest target.

• Weight: ~13,600 kg

• Length: 6.2 meters.

• Diameter: 0.8 meters.

• Explosive payload: 2,400 kg of high explosives.

• Guidance: GPS + inertial navigation.

* Penetration: Up to 60 meters of reinforced concrete or dense rock.

A Tomahawk cruise missile is a precision weapon that launches from ships, submarines and ground launchers and can strike targets precisely from a great distance, even in heavily defended airspace.

• Range: 1,250–2,500 km depending on variant.

• Speed: Subsonic (~880 km/h).

• Guidance: Inertial navigation, GPS, with some variants using terminal guidance (TERCOM, DSMAC).

• Warhead: ~450 kg conventional explosives.

• Launch platforms: Ships and submarines.

There has been a torrent of responses to the US move against Iran, Asharq News reported. President Trump declared the mission’s success, stating that the Fordo facility was “gone,” and Iran’s primary nuclear enrichment sites “completely and utterly destroyed.” Later on Sunday, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the strikes were an incredible and overwhelming success that have “obliterated Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.”

For its part, Iran’s Tasnim News Agency quoted an official saying the nuclear sites had been evacuated in advance, and the damage was “not irreparable.” The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran stated there was “no risk of any radiation leak.” Iran emphasized its nuclear industry would not be halted.
 

 


Israel rejects critical EU report ahead of ministers’ meeting

Updated 22 June 2025
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Israel rejects critical EU report ahead of ministers’ meeting

  • European nations have been increasingly critical of the massive civilian toll of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign against Palestinian militant group Hamas since its October 7, 2023 attack on Israeli communities

BRUSSELS: Israel has rejected a European Union report saying it may be breaching human rights obligations in Gaza and the West Bank as a “moral and methodological failure,” according to a document seen by Reuters on Sunday.
The note, sent to EU officials ahead of a foreign ministers’ meeting on Monday, said the report by the bloc’s diplomatic service failed to consider Israel’s challenges and was based on inaccurate information.
“The Foreign Ministry of the State of Israel rejects the document ... and finds it to be a complete moral and methodological failure,” the note said, adding that it should be dismissed entirely.
European nations have been increasingly critical of the massive civilian toll of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military campaign against Palestinian militant group Hamas since its October 7, 2023 attack on Israeli communities.

 

 


Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid killed in airstrike

Updated 22 June 2025
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Palestinians waiting for humanitarian aid killed in airstrike

  • The airstrike targeted the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, according to Al-Awda Hospital, where the bodies were brought
  • It said another 22 people were wounded while waiting for aid trucks

TEL AVIV: At least four Palestinians were killed on Sunday in an Israeli airstrike and 22 were wounded while waiting for humanitarian aid, according to a local hospital.

The airstrike targeted the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, according to Al-Awda Hospital, where the bodies were brought. 

It said another 22 people were wounded while waiting for aid trucks.

Palestinian witnesses and health officials say Israeli forces have repeatedly opened fire on crowds seeking desperately needed food, killing hundreds of people in recent weeks. 

The military says it has fired warning shots at people it said suspiciously approached its forces.

Separately, World Central Kitchen, the charity run by celebrity chef Jose Andres, said it had resumed the distribution of hot meals in Gaza for the first time in six weeks after shutting down because of Israel’s blockade, which was loosened last month amid fears of famine.

Also on Sunday, the Israeli military said that it had recovered the remains of three hostages held in the Gaza Strip. 

The military identified the remains as those of Yonatan Samerano, 21; Ofra Keidar, 70; and Shay Levinson, 19. 

All three were killed during Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack into Israel that ignited the ongoing war. 

Hamas is still holding 50 hostages, fewer than half of them believed to be alive.

The military did not provide any details about the recovery operation, and it was unclear if the airstrike was related to it.

“The campaign to return the hostages continues consistently and is happening alongside the campaign against Iran,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.

Kobi Samerano said in a Facebook post that his son’s remains were returned on what would have been Yonatan’s 23rd birthday.

Militants killed some 1,200 people, and abducted 251 people in the Oct. 7 attack. 

More than half the hostages have been returned in ceasefire agreements or other deals, eight have been rescued alive, and Israeli forces have recovered dozens of bodies.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed over 55,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry, which has said that women and children make up more than half of the dead. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The Hostages Families Forum, the main organization representing families of the hostages, has repeatedly called for a deal to release the remaining captives.

“Particularly against the backdrop of current military developments, we want to emphasize that bringing back the remaining 50 hostages is the key to achieving any sort of victory,” it said in a statement on Sunday.

Hamas has said it will only release the remaining hostages in return for more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire, and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

Netanyahu has rejected those terms, saying Israel will continue the war until all the hostages are returned and Hamas is defeated or disarmed and sent into exile. 

Even then, he has said Israel will maintain lasting control over Gaza and facilitate what he refers to as the voluntary emigration of much of its population, plans the Palestinians and others view as forcible expulsion.

The US, Qatar, and Egypt have been trying to broker a new ceasefire and hostage release after Israel ended a truce in March with a surprise wave of airstrikes. 

Those talks appear to have made little progress as Israel has expanded its air and ground offensive.


Twenty killed in suicide bombing at Damascus church

Updated 22 June 2025
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Twenty killed in suicide bombing at Damascus church

  • It was the first suicide bombing in Damascus since Bashar Assad was toppled
  • Syria’s interior ministry said the suicide bomber was a member of Daesh group

At least 20 people were killed and dozens injured when a suicide bomber blew himself up at the Mar Elias Church in the Dweila neighborhood of Syria’s capital Damascus on Sunday, health authorities and security sources said.

It was the first suicide bombing in Damascus since Bashar Assad was toppled in December. Syria’s interior ministry said the suicide bomber was a member of Daesh (Islamic State). He entered the church, opened fire and then detonated his explosive vest, a ministry statement added.

A security source, speaking on condition of anonymity, said two men were involved in the attack, including the one who blew himself up.

Daesh has been behind several attempted attacks on churches in Syria since Assad’s fall, but this was the first to succeed, another security source told Reuters.

Syria’s state news agency cited the health ministry as saying that 52 people were also injured in the blast.

A livestream from the site by Syria’s civil defense, the White Helmets, showed scenes of destruction from inside the church, including a bloodied floor and shattered pews and masonry.

Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, who led the offensive against Assad before taking over in January for a transitional phase, has repeatedly said he will protect minorities.

“We unequivocally condemn the abhorrent terrorist suicide bombing at the Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church in Damascus, Syria,” the Greek foreign ministry said in a statement.

“We demand that the Syrian transitional authorities take immediate action to hold those involved accountable and implement measures to guarantee the safety of Christian communities and all religious groups, allowing them to live without fear.”

Daesh had previously targeted religious minorities, including a major attack on Shiite pilgrims in Sayeda Zainab in 2016 — one of the most notorious bombings during Assad’s rule.

The latest assault underscores the group’s continued ability to exploit security gaps despite the collapse of its territorial control and years of counterterrorism efforts.