Pakistan’s upcoming election and the Middle East factor

In the post second world war political order, Muslim states in the Middle East and in particular the Arabian Gulf Peninsula found Pakistan a trustable partner owing to it sharing a generally pro-west foreign policy outlook. This alignment also translated into the political and military elite in Pakistan developing cordial inter-personal ties with leaders in the Gulf. This connection has given the Gulf States a unique status vis-à-vis a political field within Pakistan. During critical junctures in Pakistan’s political history, the Gulf ruling elites have not merely remained spectators but have used their influence and power with different stakeholders in the country to resolve political crises. 

The first such instance came in the aftermath of the military coup of 1977 by Army Chief General Zia-ul-haq resulting in the removal of the government of Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and his subsequent imprisonment. PM Bhutto had developed close personal ties with royal houses in the Gulf, and particularly the Saudi royal family. He was the architect of Pakistan’s pan-Islamic foreign policy and had ushered in a new era in the country’s relationship with the Muslim world. It was in his time that Pakistani expatriates started arriving in the Gulf and laying down the foundation of a connection which would eventually bring billions of dollars in remittances to the country.

Against this backdrop, his removal in a military coup was alarming for Saudi Arabia. As Bhutto was sentenced to death by the country’s superior court at the behest of General Zia, the Saudi leadership tried to initiate a political settlement. But an embattled Zia turned down Saudi requests. Zia was indeed lucky that the geopolitical changes ushered in by the events of 1979 created an environment that helped renew the partnership. 

During critical junctures in Pakistan’s political history, the Gulf ruling elites have not merely remained spectators but have used their influence and power with different stakeholders in the country to resolve political crises. 

- Umer Karim

The next most critical Gulf mediation happened in 1999 when the government of then Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was removed in a coup d’etat by then Army Chief General Pervez Musharaf. Just like Bhutto, PM Sharif also had maintained close inter-personal ties with the ruling elite in Saudi Arabia. In order to avert the re-enactment of a Bhutto scenario, Saudi Arabia intervened and mediated an agreement between Musharaf and Sharif, resulting in the latter’s exile from Pakistan. With the eventual return to power of Sharif, his government was provided with a generous financial aid package by Saudi Arabia. 

This state of affairs continued during the premiership of Imran Khan who also managed to secure billions of dollars in financial aid from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 

With Khan’s departure after a no-confidence motion against his government, Pakistan’s political scene imploded. There has been chronic political and economic instability and the lack of a politically representative government in the country has meant that many of Pakistan’s friends in the Middle East have been unable to commit to significant financial aid packages. For now, the point of contact in Pakistan for middle eastern and gulf stakeholders remains the country’s military establishment. 

It will be fair to assume that for all Gulf states, political and economic stability in Pakistan is vital and for that to happen it remains vitally important that free and fair elections are held on time and no longer delayed. 

Similarly, Turkiye an earnest political ally of Pakistan will also support a fair and transparent electoral process and a subsequent transfer of power. However, as things stand in Pakistan, it appears the electoral fold is open to all political forces but one, meaning the current political crisis will possibly remain unresolved.

Going forward, in order to garner economic aid and investments, the coming government will have to first put its own house in order and ensure a process of political reconciliation rather than a new spectre of political revenge. The next government will also have to enact structural economic reforms and implement a strict fiscal regime. 

Such measures will be helpful in improving the confidence of investors-- relatively more than creating new investment bodies. With regards to regional geopolitics from a Gulf States perspective, the next government will be expected to deliver something concrete in terms of contributing toward the security of the region and to move beyond the traditional rhetorical manoeuvrings of Pakistan’s power corridors.

- Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, conflict in Syria, and the geopolitics of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. Twitter: @UmarKarim89