World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures

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Employees of a mosaic workshop work on panels, main, in a town in the war-ravaged Syrian province of Idlib. Low-income nations are likely to face further isolation from technologies and the associated job market. (AFP/File)
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Updated 15 January 2024
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World Economic Forum annual meeting kicks off in Davos against a backdrop of geopolitical fractures

  • Reports produced by Switzerland-based group identify key support strategies as MENA region faces a testing time
  • Even the most promising economies seen facing challenges that prevent a stronger balanced growth performance

DAVOS/LONDON:  Uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Hamas war in Palestine’s Gaza Strip has contributed to a slight weakening of economic growth expectations for 2024 in the wider Middle East and North Africa region, according to a new survey of chief economists by the World Economic Forum.

The January 2024 Chief Economists Outlook, published on Monday, noted that although the outlook has weakened since September last year, 61 percent of survey respondents continued to foresee moderate or stronger economic growth in the MENA region over the next year.




Palestinians storm a UN-run aid supply center ion in Deir al-Balah on October 28, 2023, following Israel's call for more than one million residents in northern Gaza to move south for their safety, amid the ongoing battles between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas. (AFP/File)

However, growth forecasts for the region remain susceptible to the increased risk of shocks, partly stemming from expanding geopolitical rifts due to the persistence of old conflicts and the eruption of new ones.

The growth outlook is also clouded by reduced oil demand and a substantial decline in tourism.

These factors, particularly the current geopolitical climate, are expected to contribute to the deepening global economic uncertainty in 2024, as 56 percent of experts anticipate further decline in most regions.




A aid worker from the humanitarian agency Premiere Urgence assists Sudanese refugees who crossed into Chad in Koufroun, near Echbara, on May 1, 2023. (AFP)/File)

There seems to be strong consensus among the chief economists this year that recent geopolitical developments will increase localization and strengthen geo-economic blocs, which, in turn, may deepen inequalities and widen the North-South divide in the next three years.

WEF 2024 MEETING THEMES

• Achieving security and cooperation in a fractured world.

• Creating growth and jobs for a new era.

• Artificial intelligence as a driving force for the economy and society.

• A long-term strategy for climate, nature and energy.

Against this backdrop, the WEF’s separate Future of Growth Report 2024 says the economic repercussions of the Middle East conflict are aggravating a range of interconnected global challenges, such as the climate crisis and a weakening social contract. Collectively, these issues are undoing the progress made in global development.

The Future of Growth Report evaluates the quality of growth across four pillars: Innovativeness, Inclusiveness, Sustainability and Resilience.

“Reigniting global growth will be essential to addressing key challenges, yet growth alone is not enough,” Saadia Zahidi, WEF managing director, said in a statement on Monday.




An Iraqi-Kurdish electrical engineer gives a briefing on solar energy in Sulaimaniyah in northern Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region on September 20, 2023. Despite its vast oil wealth, Iraq struggles to provide enough electricity to its 43 million people after decades of conflict and sanctions, as well as rampant corruption and crumbling infrastructure. (AFP/File)

“The report proposes a new way for assessing economic growth that balances efficiency with long-term sustainability, resilience and equity, as well as innovation for the future, aligning with both global and national priorities.”

In the Chief Economists Outlook, experts are optimistic that the potential of generative artificial intelligence could be part of the remedy.

The chief economists zeroed in on two key phenomena impacting the global economy — geopolitical developments and advancements in generative AI. The outlook found that the rapid advances in AI positioned it at the forefront of both business and policy agendas in 2024.

The survey respondents, however, were more optimistic about AI-enabled benefits in high-income economies than in developing nations. In high-income economies, AI is expected to significantly increase productivity gains and innovation over the next five years.




The Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority aims to raise awareness of the importance of generative artificial intelligence as it contributes to enhancing the building of a bright future for the Kingdom. (SDAIA illustration) 

Conversely, low-income nations, especially those susceptible to conflict and the effects of climate change, are expected to face further isolation from technologies, investment and the associated job market due to barriers to economic mobility.

But another WEF report released on Jan. 10, ahead of the organization’s annual meeting in Davos, suggested that the growing role of AI in the generation and dissemination of fake news was likely to fuel social unrest, especially during elections, in several major economies over the next two years.

The WEF’s Global Risks Report ranked both AI-driven false information and societal polarization among the greatest global risks in 2024.

Despite that, the perspectives of the chief economists were somewhat split regarding the likelihood of generative AI leading to a decline in trust within both high-income and low-income economies this year.

ANNUAL GDP PER CAPITA GROWTH (2018-2023)

• 1.01% High-income economies.

• 1.32% Upper-middle-income economies.

• 1.95% Lower-middle-income economies.

• 0.22% Low-income economies.

Source: World Economic Forum

The Chief Economists Outlook stated that although technological advances may revitalize global productivity, it is essential to implement policies that promote high-quality growth, rekindling global momentum and ensuring a balanced impact across income groups.

The survey respondents identified five key strategies to support developing economies in the current context.

These are “laying a sound institutional framework for long-term growth, improving integration into global value chains, tapping into green transition opportunities, strengthening innovation capacity, digital infrastructure and a sound investment climate, and investing in human capital and basic services.”

Escalating conflicts globally and a weakened commitment to peace and security cooperation have led to a 2 percent dip in global cooperation from 2020 to 2023, according to the WEF’s Global Cooperation Barometer 2024, released earlier this month.




A Houthi military helicopter flies over the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023. Prolonged disruption of shipping across the Red Sea is expected to result in higher inflation globally. (Houthi handout via REUTERS/File Photo) 

This increase in conflicts, including prolonged disruption in the Red Sea as well as rising climate volatility, are also expected to have an impact on inflation rates.

The Cooperation Barometer also recognized areas of strong cooperation, including climate and natural capital, trade and capital flows, and innovation and technology.

Climate-related threats were found to be the greatest long-term concern, according to the Global Risks Report, which highlighted that environmental risks were among the top 10 threats facing the world over the next decade.

 

 

 


China’s Xi declines EU invitation to anniversary summit, FT reports

Updated 16 March 2025
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China’s Xi declines EU invitation to anniversary summit, FT reports

  • Beijing told EU officials that Premier Li Qiang would meet the presidents of the European Council and Commission instead of Xi

Chinese President Xi Jinping has declined an invitation to visit Brussels for a summit to mark the 50th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic ties, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
Beijing told EU officials that Premier Li Qiang would meet the presidents of the European Council and Commission instead of Xi, the FT said, citing two people familiar with the matter whom it did not identify.
The Chinese premier usually attends the summit when it is held in Brussels, while the president hosts it in Beijing, but the EU wants Xi to attend to commemorate half a century of relations between Beijing and the bloc, the newspaper said.
Tensions between Brussels and Beijing have grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the EU accusing China of backing the Kremlin, the FT said. Last year, the European Union also imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports.
China’s Foreign Ministry and the EU did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
“Informal discussions are ongoing, both about setting the date for the EU-China summit this year and the level of representation,” an EU official told the newspaper, while the Chinese ministry was quoted as saying it did not have any information to provide on the matter.
China, the world’s second-biggest economy, and the EU, its third-largest, spent most of 2024 exchanging barbs over allegations of overcapacity, illegal subsidies and dumping in each other’s markets.
In October, the EU imposed double-digit tariffs on China-made electric vehicles after an anti-subsidy investigation, in addition to its standard car import duty of 10 percent. The move drew loud protests from Beijing, which in return, raised market entry barriers for certain EU products such as brandy.


Tornadoes strike US South, killing 33 people amid rising risk

Updated 16 March 2025
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Tornadoes strike US South, killing 33 people amid rising risk

  • Twenty-six tornadoes were reported but not confirmed to have touched down late on Friday night and early on Saturday

ATLANTA: Tornadoes killed at least 33 people across several states in the US Midwest and Southeast on Saturday night, CNN reported.
Missouri reported 12 fatalities spanning five counties, the state’s highway patrol posted on X.
Robbie Myers, the director of emergency management in Missouri’s Butler County, told reporters that more than 500 homes, a church and grocery store in the county were destroyed. A mobile home park had been “totally destroyed,” he said. Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves posted on X that six deaths had been reported in the state – one in Covington County, two in Jeff Davis County and three in Walthall County.
According to preliminary assessments, 29 people were injured statewide and 21 counties sustained storm damage, Reeves said.
In Arkansas, three deaths occurred, the state’s Department of Emergency Management said, adding that there were 32 injuries.
Twenty-six tornadoes were reported but not confirmed to have touched down late on Friday night and early on Saturday as a low-pressure system drove powerful thunderstorms across parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi and Missouri, said David Roth, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center.


NASA’s stuck astronauts welcome their newly arrived replacements to the space station

Updated 16 March 2025
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NASA’s stuck astronauts welcome their newly arrived replacements to the space station

  • The Boeing Starliner capsule encountered so many problems that NASA insisted it come back empty, leaving its test pilots behind to wait for a SpaceX lift

CAPE CANAVERAL: Just over a day after blasting off, a SpaceX crew capsule arrived at the International Space Station on Sunday, delivering the replacements for NASA’s two stuck astronauts.
The four newcomers — representing the US, Japan and Russia — will spend the next few days learning the station’s ins and outs from Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams. Then the two will strap into their own SpaceX capsule later this week, one that has been up there since last year, to close out an unexpected extended mission that began last June.
Wilmore and Williams expected to be gone just a week when they launched on Boeing’s first astronaut flight. They hit the nine-month mark earlier this month.
The Boeing Starliner capsule encountered so many problems that NASA insisted it come back empty, leaving its test pilots behind to wait for a SpaceX lift.
Wilmore swung open the space station’s hatch and then rang the ship’s bell as the new arrivals floated in one by one and were greeted with hugs and handshakes.
“It was a wonderful day. Great to see our friends arrive,” Williams told Mission Control.
Wilmore’s and Williams’ ride arrived back in late September with a downsized crew of two and two empty seats reserved for the leg back. But more delays resulted when their replacements’ brand new capsule needed extensive battery repairs. An older capsule took its place, pushing up their return by a couple weeks to mid-March.
Weather permitting, the SpaceX capsule carrying Wilmore, Williams and two other astronauts will undock from the space station no earlier than Wednesday and splash down off Florida’s coast.
Until then, there will be 11 aboard the orbiting lab, representing the US, Russia and Japan.


Trump ‘silences’ Voice of America and other US-funded networks, including Urdu service

Updated 16 March 2025
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Trump ‘silences’ Voice of America and other US-funded networks, including Urdu service

  • VOA director Michael Abramowitz says he was among 1,300 staffers placed on leave this week
  • US media outlets were seen as critical to countering Russian, Chinese information offensives

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump’s administration on Saturday put journalists at Voice of America and other US-funded broadcasters on leave, abruptly freezing decades-old outlets long seen as critical to countering Russian and Chinese information offensives.

Hundreds of staffers at VOA, Radio Free Asia, Radio Free Europe and other outlets received a weekend email saying they will be barred from their offices and should surrender press passes and office-issued equipment.

Trump, who has already eviscerated the US global aid agency and the Education Department, on Friday issued an executive order listing the US Agency for Global Media as among “elements of the federal bureaucracy that the president has determined are unnecessary.”

Kari Lake, a firebrand Trump supporter put in charge of the media agency after she lost a US Senate bid, said in an email to the outlets that federal grant money “no longer effectuates agency priorities.”

The White House said the cuts would ensure “taxpayers are no longer on the hook for radical propaganda,” marking a dramatic tone shift toward the networks established to extend US influence overseas.

White House press official Harrison Fields wrote “goodbye” on X in 20 languages, a jab at the outlets’ multilingual coverage.

VOA director Michael Abramowitz said he was among 1,300 staffers placed on leave Saturday.

“VOA needs thoughtful reform, and we have made progress in that regard. But today’s action will leave Voice of America unable to carry out its vital mission,” he said on Facebook, noting that its coverage — in 48 languages — reaches 360 million people each week.

“I am deeply saddened that for the first time in 83 years, the storied Voice of America is being silenced,” Abramowitz said, adding that it has played an important role “in the fight for freedom and democracy around the world.”

The head of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, which started broadcasting into the Soviet bloc during the Cold War, called the cancelation of funding “a massive gift to America’s enemies.”
“The Iranian ayatollahs, Chinese communist leaders, and autocrats in Moscow and Minsk would celebrate the demise of RFE/RL after 75 years,” its president, Stephen Capus, said in a statement.

US-funded media have reoriented themselves since the end of the Cold War, dropping much of the programming geared toward newly democratic Central and Eastern European countries and focusing on Russia and China.

Chinese state-funded media have expanded their reach sharply over the past decade, including by offering free services to outlets in the developing world that would otherwise pay for Western news agencies.

Radio Free Asia, established in 1996, sees its mission as providing uncensored reporting into countries without free media including China, Myanmar, North Korea and Vietnam.

The outlets have an editorial firewall, with a stated guarantee of independence despite government funding.

The policy has angered some around Trump, who has long railed against media and suggested that government-funded outlets should promote his policies.

The move to end US-funded media is likely to meet challenges, much like Trump’s other sweeping cuts. Congress, not the president, has the constitutional power of the purse and Radio Free Asia in particular has enjoyed bipartisan support in the past.

Advocacy group Reporters Without Borders condemned the decision, saying it “threatens press freedom worldwide and negates 80 years of American history in supporting the free flow of information.”

Gregory Meeks, the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and senior Democratic congresswoman Lois Frankel said in a joint statement that Trump’s move would “cause lasting damage to US efforts to counter propaganda around the world.”

One VOA employee, who requested anonymity, described Saturday’s message as another “perfect example of the chaos and unprepared nature of the process,” with VOA staffers presuming that scheduled programming is off but not told so directly.

A Radio Free Asia employee said: “It’s not just about losing your income. We have staff and contractors who fear for their safety. We have reporters who work under the radar in authoritarian countries in Asia. We have staff in the US who fear deportation if their work visa is no longer valid.”

“Wiping us out with the strike of a pen is just terrible.”


Russia, Ukraine continue air attacks with ceasefire prospects uncertain

Updated 16 March 2025
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Russia, Ukraine continue air attacks with ceasefire prospects uncertain

  • Both sides have since traded heavy aerial strikes, and Russia moved closer on battlefield to ejecting Ukrainian forces from their months-old foothold

Russia and Ukraine continued aerial attacks on each other, inflicting injuries and damages, officials said early on Sunday, as the fate of a proposed ceasefire to the three-year-old war remained uncertain.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday he supported in principle Washington’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine but that his forces would fight on until several crucial conditions were worked out.
Both sides have since traded heavy aerial strikes, and Russia moved closer on battlefield to ejecting Ukrainian forces from their months-old foothold in the western Russian region of Kursk.
The Russian defense ministry said on Sunday that its air defense units destroyed a total of 31 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory.
Of those, 16 were downed over the southwestern region of Voronezh, nine over the territory of the Belgorod region and the rest over the Rostov and Kursk regions, the ministry said on the Telegram messaging app.
In a Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian border region of Belgorod, three people were injured, including a 7-year-old, regional Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said earlier on the Telegram messaging app.
Two of the people were injured after a drone hit their house, sparking a fire in the Gubkinsky district of the region, while the other person was injured in a drone attack on the village of Dolgoye, Gladkov said.
Alexander Gusev, governor of Voronezh, said on Telegram that there was no immediate reports of injuries or damage.
The acting governor of the southern Russian region of Rostov said there were no immediate reports of injuries or damage reported there either.
In Ukraine, authorities reported several Russian drone strikes, including on the northern region of Chernihiv, where firefighters were battling a blaze at a high-rise building that was sparked by Russian drone attack, Ukraine’s state of emergency service said.
Ukrainian media reported a series of explosions in the region surrounding the capital Kyiv, after Ukraine’s air force issued warnings of a threat of drone attacks on Kyiv and a number of other central Ukrainian regions.
By 0300 GMT on Sunday, there was no official information about damage in the Kyiv region.