“Iran cannot strike Israel,” Iraqi FM says at Davos

Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 17, 2024. (X: @Davos)
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Updated 18 January 2024
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“Iran cannot strike Israel,” Iraqi FM says at Davos

  • Fouad Hussein told Asharq Al-Awsat that there is no Mossad in Iraq, contrary to Iran's claims
  • Says the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq will be done through negotiations 

Hours before Iraq filed a complaint against Iran to the Security Council, the Iraqi Foreign Minister Fouad Hussein condemned, in an interview with Asharq Al-Awsat, Iran’s attack on Irbil, considering the escalation “an attempt by Iran to export its internal problems.” 

Hussein, who was speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum held in Davos, said that “his country has taken political and diplomatic measures to respond to the Iranian bombardment that killed 4 civilians in Irbil on Monday evening,” denying Tehran’s claims about the presence of the Israeli Mossad in Iraq. 

He also linked the attack on the Iraqi Kurdistan region to the rising tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv due to the war in Gaza, considering that “there are likely rules of engagement between the Iranians and the Israelis.” 

Regarding Baghdad’s interest in the withdrawal of US forces stationed in Iraqi military bases, Hussein said that his government seeks to reach a “negotiation process” with Washington, highlighting that “the Americans are ready to sit at the negotiation table but under normal circumstances.” 

The past few weeks witnessed an escalation against US interests in Iraq. Washington responded by targeting the headquarters of Iraqi factions with close ties to Iran.  

As for the Iraqi-Saudi relations, Hussein said that they are excellent, expressing his country’s aspiration “to strengthen economic cooperation and push Saudi investments towards Iraq.” 

Below is the full script of the discussion: 

Allow me to start with the Revolutionary Guard’s attack that targeted the Iraqi Kurdistan region on Monday evening, along with the official Iraqi condemnation that followed and the summoning of the Chargé d’Affaires of the Iranian Embassy. What additional measures is Iraq considering in response to this escalation? 

The measures that Iraq is taking are diplomatic, political and legal. When it comes to diplomatic measures, we have summoned the second-highest-ranking diplomat at the embassy (as the Iranian ambassador is in Tehran) and handed him a note of protest regarding the Iranian aggression against Iraq’s territory in Irbil and the killing of Iraqi citizens. 

We have recalled the Iraqi ambassador from Tehran to Baghdad. Based on the directives of the prime minister, the federal and regional governments have formed an investigation committee.

The head of the committee, who is the Iraqi national security adviser, will submit his report on Wednesday to the prime minister. According to what I have heard from the national security adviser, the owner of the house that was bombed, who is a well-known Kurdish-Iraqi businessman, was killed along with his daughter, while his other daughter and wife were injured. His guest, an Iraqi from Mosul, was killed as well. One Filipina worker, who was inside the house at the time of the attack, was also killed, while 3 other Filipina workers were injured and are receiving the necessary treatment at the hospital. As for the house, it was completely destroyed. 

In addition to the measures I have mentioned, we have filed a complaint to the United Nations Security Council. 

Iran says that it targeted an Israeli Mossad headquarters in Irbil. Does the Israeli intelligence agency really have a presence in Iraq? 

The Iranians blaming others is strange. They are witnessing problems, such as assassinations and terrorist attacks, inside their country due to the failure of the relevant bodies there, but they try to export these problems abroad. 

About a year ago, (Iran) bombed a residential house belonging to another Kurdish-Iraqi businessman with 12 rockets. An Iraqi governmental delegation went to Tehran back then with an investigation committee to prove that the house that was targeted was indeed a normal house, where the family of the businessman lived. 

(The Iranians) claimed that the house was a Mossad headquarters, but they were fully aware that their claim was false. They were promoting this false media campaign internally (to address) an internal campaign that started due to a terrorist attack that took place near Kermanshah. 

They, in fact, cannot confront Israel. So, they attack Irbil. There is no truth (to Iran’s claims in terms of the presence of a Mossad headquarters). This is an internal Iranian issue and they are exporting it abroad. They cannot confront Israel even though they are present in Syria and at the Israeli borders. 

If they wanted to attack Israel, they could have done that. They are present in Syria and south Lebanon. They have, as they say, rockets that can reach Israel from their territories. 

Why do they attack Irbil? Irbil is part of Iraq and Iraq is a neighboring and friendly country to Iran. They share significant historical, geographical, religious, cultural and economic relations. 

We used to defend Iran. We are the ones who repaired the bad relations between Iran and the Arab countries and, sometimes, between Iran and the European countries and the US. 

Iran is attacking an allied government. This is a strategic mistake and I think that whoever carried out this operation in Tehran will realize, after some time, that he made a strategic mistake when dealing with Iraq. 

Did the Israeli war against Gaza turn Iraq into a field where Iran and the US exchange messages? Is this what led the Iraqi government to announce its interest in the withdrawal of US forces? 

When relations become tense between Iran and another country, the tension is in fact between Iran and Washington. These negatively tense relations reflect on Iraq. So, there would be a conflict, but on the Iraqi scene. 

Today, the relations between Israel and Iran are tense and dangerous. However, the Iranians do not take the battle to Israel, as they have their interests. Therefore, for the sake of internal consumption, they transferred the battle to the Iraqi Kurdistan region or the Iraqi scene, which is a big mistake. 

What I get from this is that there are agreed-upon rules of engagement between the Israelis and Iranians. I think that the attack on Irbil, in the mind of some people in Tehran, was in response to what happened in Kerman, meaning the terrorist attack for which ISIS Khorasan claimed responsibility. 

If this group, which has intellectual, ideological and security conflicts with Iran, was responsible for the terrorist attack that martyred many people in Kerman, why is Iran exporting this problem to the Iraqi Kurdistan region? Or if this operation targeted the Israelis, as claimed by Iran, the Israelis are in their country. 

The Iranians claim that they are fighting the Israelis. Therefore, I feel that there are rules of engagement in place between them. However, for the sake of internal consumption, the Iranians bombed the militarily weak link, which is weak now because Iraq is a friend of Iran. They hit their friend and do not confront their enemy. 

Did you set a timeline for the US forces' withdrawal from Iraq? 

The Iraqi government confirms that this issue will be solved through negotiations, not by force. This is the main idea. We need negotiations that would lead us to achieve this objective with the agreement of both parties. We are currently still discussing the initiation of these negotiations with the US. 

As for the violence and counter-violence (that Iraq has witnessed recently), the Americans say that they will not sit at the negotiation table by force. They are ready to negotiate the US presence on Iraqi territories but under normal circumstances. 

We should resort to history here. The Americans came to Iraq at the invitation of the Iraqi government. Therefore, we can very easily ask them to leave. However, this must be done based on a joint agreement. 

We need a negotiation process. We are currently in talks with the US to agree on the initiation of the said process and then announce it. We hope to reach an agreement swiftly. 

Some Kurdish and Sunni actors don’t seem to support a US withdrawal right now. Is there consensus among Iraqi components about this step? 

Some issues are national issues, and this is a reality. The Iraqi government is a coalition government. We have a political leadership represented by the State Administration Coalition, which formed this government and includes representatives of all the components through their parties. 

Therefore, when we start negotiations, we should tackle their content during the political leadership meeting. When we reach a consensus about the results, it would be a national decision through legal frameworks, meaning through the approval of the Iraqi government.  

We need approval, but we have a political framework to discuss these issues. 

The raison d’être of US troops in Iraq was to assist Iraqi forces in combating terrorism. Are Iraqi forces now able to confront the renewed terrorist threat? 

There’s an equation in place. It is true that US troops in Iraq and the International Coalition Forces were established to combat Daesh. They came to Iraq upon the government’s approval back then and without it, they wouldn’t have been able to enter Iraq. Thanks to the efforts of the Iraqi army, the Popular Mobilization Forces and the Peshmerga Forces, and the support of the coalition forces as well as other countries, including Iran, the people of Iraq were able to defeat Daesh and break what is called “the Daesh State.” 

Daesh ended and turned into a terrorist gang. A war against gangs doesn’t involve armies. It is an intelligence and information war. 

We are currently the ones initiating the attack against these gangs here and there, based on the military concept. We do not need additional forces, because the forces on the Iraqi scene, including the army, the Popular Mobilization Forces, the Peshmerga or the security forces in general, are sufficient. 

As a state, we need to be fully sovereign in terms of security. As for the friendly states, they can have a presence – if needed – on Iraqi territory for training and advice purposes, and with the approval of the Iraqi government. 

We don’t need combat troops. However, in order to reach the stage of these forces’ departure from Iraqi territory, we need negotiations. That’s the difference between the government’s proposal and the proposals made by some of the other groups. We believe in dialogue and negotiations, as, through them, we can reach an agreement for the withdrawal of these forces.  

How many US troops are in Iraq today? 

I think there are 2,500 US troops, not more.  

Between 2003 and 2011, the number of US troops deployed in Iraq at certain stages reached 160,000 US soldiers. Today, we are talking about a small number. 

Moreover, if we look at the Americans in Iraqi camps – there are no US camps – we find that their average age is not that of combat soldiers. They are experts, advisers or trainers. 

There are multiple investment projects between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and trade between the two countries has risen to about $1 billion annually. How do you evaluate the relations between Riyadh and Baghdad today? 

Political relations between Iraq and Saudi Arabia today are excellent. By the way, we played a major role in restoring the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran. We are happy with that, as Iran is a neighboring country with which we share our borders. Whenever the relationship between the Arab States surrounding Iraq and Iran is good, it is in Iraq’s interest. 

Tensions in the region affect Iraq negatively, and good relations affect Iraq positively. Iraq’s security depends on the region’s security. 

The relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iraq is excellent. We started discussing how to cooperate in the fields of trade and economy. Furthermore, we always cooperate with Saudi Arabia to coordinate positions on oil issues within the framework of OPEC, as well as at the international level and within the League of Arab States. 

We look forward to developing the relations between both countries, establishing strong economic relations, and to Saudi companies investing in Iraq, since we need foreign investments to build the Iraqi economy. 

There is regular communication between Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as between the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and I. We will both meet here in Davos in a few days. 

The Iraqi Prime Minister visited Damascus last July. It was the highest-level Arab visit after Damascus returned to the League of Arab States. Tell us about the Iraqi-Syrian relations today. 

The Syrian-Iraqi relations have not been interrupted, as have relations between many Arab States and Syria. 

During previous meetings of the League of Arab States, we were keen on proposing Syria’s return. Iraq was also among the countries that called for Syria’s return to international forums, so the Syrian government could be an actor in the negotiations and achieve a state of stability on its territories. 

Moreover, destabilizing Syria affects Iraq negatively. 

We should not forget that “Daesh” established its so-called “Daesh State” on Iraqi and Syrian territories, and at a certain point, controlled around 50 percent of the Syrian territories and one-third of the Iraqi territories. 

Stability in Syria positively reflects on the security situation in Iraq. There are multiple terrorist organizations in Syria, while in the Al-Hol camp and Syrian prisons near the Iraqi border, there are thousands of Daesh militants. If these people were released or were able to escape, many of them would definitely try to cross the border into Iraq and undermine Iraq’s security and stability. 

From this perspective and the humanitarian perspective, we call for the stability of Syria. We know that the Syrian crisis is a local, national, regional and international crisis that involves different actors. There are not only two teams but several teams in the same arena. Solving this crisis requires cooperation at the Arab, regional and global levels. 

As for the humanitarian side of things, there are around eight million Syrians who are either displaced or refugees, while Syria’s economy has been completely destroyed. Syrians are facing a tragedy due to inflation, the “deteriorating” economic situation, the “scarcity” of electricity and the “absence” of services. We stand in solidarity with the Syrian people, hoping they will overcome this tragedy. Therefore, we “strive” to interact with others in order to create a state of stability in Syria. 

 

• This was originally published in Asharq Al-Awsat 


Israeli military tightens media rules over war crimes prosecution concern

Updated 09 January 2025
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Israeli military tightens media rules over war crimes prosecution concern

  • Under the new rules, media interviewing soldiers of the rank of colonel and under will not be able to display their full names or faces, similar to the rules that already exist for pilots, an Israeli military spokesperson says

JERUSALEM: The Israeli military placed new restrictions on media coverage of soldiers on active combat duty amid growing concern at the risk of legal action against reservists traveling abroad over allegations of involvement in war crimes in Gaza.
The move came after an Israeli reservist vacationing in Brazil left the country abruptly when a Brazilian judge ordered federal police to open an investigation following allegations from a pro-Palestinian group that he had committed war crimes while serving in Gaza.
Under the new rules, media interviewing soldiers of the rank of colonel and under will not be able to display their full names or faces, similar to the rules that already exist for pilots and members of special forces units, Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesperson told reporters.
The interviewees must not be linked to a specific combat event they participated in.
“This is our new guideline to protect our soldiers and to make sure they are safe from these types of incident hosted by anti-Israel activists around the world,” Shoshani said.
He said that under existing military rules, soldiers were already not supposed to post videos and other images from war zones on social media “even though that’s never perfect and we have a large army.” There were also long-standing rules and guidelines for soldiers traveling abroad, he said.
Shoshani said activist groups, such as the Belgium-based Hind Rajab Foundation, which pushed for the action in Brazil, were “connecting the dots” between soldiers who posted material from Gaza and then posted other photos and videos of themselves while on holiday abroad.
Last year, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as a Hamas leader, Ibrahim Al-Masri, over alleged war crimes in Gaza, drawing outrage in Israel.
Shoshani said there had been “a handful” of cases where reservists traveling abroad had been targeted, in addition to the case in Brazil, all of which had been started by activist groups pushing authorities for an investigation.
“They didn’t open an investigation, they didn’t press charges or anything like that,” he said.


Syria is ‘the cornerstone for regional stability,’ GCC tells UN Security Council

Updated 09 January 2025
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Syria is ‘the cornerstone for regional stability,’ GCC tells UN Security Council

  • US representative says transition process and government that emerges from it must prioritize destruction of Assad regime’s chemical weapons stockpiles
  • Syrian envoy says new Syria ‘willing to play a positive role in international arena … promote international and regional peace and security, will not engage in any conflict or war’

NEW YORK CITY: The Gulf Cooperation Council on Wednesday stressed the need to respect the independence and territorial integrity of Syria, reject foreign interference, combat terrorism and respect the country’s religious and cultural diversity as it embarks on a new chapter of its history after the fall of long-time dictator Bashar Assad.

Speaking on behalf of the GCC, Kuwait’s permanent representative to the UN, Tareq Albanai, expressed its support for a comprehensive and inclusive political process, moves toward national reconciliation, and efforts to rebuild the state.

He called for national unity and comprehensive dialogue, adding that the “stability of Syria is the cornerstone for stability in region.”

Albanai was speaking at the Security Council’s first meeting of the year on Syria. He told members that the GCC decided to participate in the meeting only “to confirm our determination to help the country politically, economically, developmentally and humanitarianly.”

GCC member states categorically reject the repeated attacks on Syria by Israeli occupation forces and call for their immediate withdrawal from Syrian territories, he added.

“We renew our firm position that the Golan is Syrian territory and condemn the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied Golan,” Albanai said.

He also called for the lifting of the economic sanctions imposed on Syria during the civil war.

Egypt’s permanent representative to the UN, Osama Abdel Khalek, speaking on behalf of the UN Arab Group, also condemned the ongoing Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights, and what he described as “Israel’s opportunistic exploitation of the current situation to occupy further Syrian territories, bomb cities and infrastructure.”

He urged the Security Council to intervene and put an end to the Israeli “aggression, occupation” and “the illegal presence of all foreign forces in Syria.”

Syria’s permanent representative to the UN, Kusay Aldahak, told the council that caretaker authorities in the country are willing to build “friendly relations with all UN member states based on cooperation and shared interests and away from the policies of polarization.”

He added that the “new Syria is willing to play a positive role in the international arena. It will promote international and regional peace and security, and will not engage in any conflict or war.”

Aldahak called on the UN to “immediately and fully lift the unilateral coercive measures; provide necessary financing to meet needs and recover basic services, mainly electricity; support livelihood projects and sustainable development; reconstruct damaged service facilities; ensure de-mining; rid Syria of the remnants of war; and allow dignified refugees to return to their cities and homes.”

The UN’s humanitarian chief, Tom Fletcher, told council members that close to 13 million Syrians face acute food insecurity at a time when the World Food Programme has been forced to reduce the amount of food assistance it provides by 80 per cent in the past two years as a result of funding shortfalls.

More than 620,000 Syrians remain displaced as a result of the operation to remove Assad in November and December, on top of the 7 million who had already been displaced by more than a

decade of civil war. In the northwest of the country alone, 2 million people are living in camps, Fletcher said.

US ambassador Dorothy Shea said the transition process and the Syrian government that emerges from it must ensure any chemical weapons that remain in the former Assad regime’s stockpiles are secured and destroyed.

“We are encouraged by the cooperation to date and call for the continued commitment of relevant actors in Syria to work with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the United Nations, and other state and non-state partners to chart a course for the complete and verifiable elimination of any remaining elements of a chemical weapons program, and assist released detainees and the families of those whose whereabouts remain unknown,” she said.

Shea also urged the interim government to deter individual acts of vengeance, and to partner with international institutions to identify ways to ensure that those guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity are held accountable.

Shea said the US welcomes “positive messages from Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham but will ultimately look for progress in actions, not words. We are looking for actions and words that will explore policies that prioritize the well-being of the Syrian people.”

The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, said he stands ready to work with the caretaker authorities “on how the nascent and important ideas and steps so far articulated and initiated could be developed towards a credible and inclusive political transition.”

The UK’s permanent representative to the UN, Barbara Woodward, said she was encouraged by the timelines set by the interim authorities for drafting a new constitution and holding elections and a national dialogue, and by their early engagement with the international community.

She called for their continued cooperation with UN as she welcomed the caretaker government’s efforts “to secure the chemical weapons stock and work with OPCW to fully declare and verify the destruction of such weapons. Now is the moment to close the Syria chemical weapons file once and for all.”

Russian ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said: “Syria has more than enough problems and their severity should in no case be underestimated.”

He warned of the “fairly high risk of intensification of hostilities” in many parts of the country, in particular Aleppo and Quneitra. He also highlighted “the direct threat to the territorial integrity of Syria” arising from “the unlawful actions of Israel, which is carrying out a policy of fait accompli in the occupied Golan Heights, and 500 square kilometers of Syrian land have already been seized.”

Nebenzia blamed sanctions imposed by the US “and its satellites” for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in the country. As result of these sanctions, the Syrian economy is “under extreme pressure and is not able to cope with the challenges facing the country,” he added.


Egypt unveils ancient rock-cut tombs and burial shafts in Luxor

Updated 08 January 2025
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Egypt unveils ancient rock-cut tombs and burial shafts in Luxor

CAIRO: Egypt unveiled several discoveries near the famed city of Luxor on Wednesday, including ancient rock-cut tombs and burial shafts dating back 3,600 years.

They were unearthed at the causeway of Queen Hatshepsut’s funerary temple at Deir Al-Bahri on the Nile’s West Bank, according to a statement released by Zahi Hawass Foundation for Antiquities & Heritage. It said it worked in tandem with the Supreme Council of Antiquities on the site since September 2022.

Artifacts found at the tombs included bronze coins with the image of Alexander the Great dating to the Time of Ptolemy I (367-283), children’s toys made of clay, cartonnage and funerary masks that covered mummies, winged scarabs, beads and funerary amulets.

Hawass told reporters that the discoveries could “reconstruct history” and offer an understanding of the type of programs ancient Egyptians designed inside a temple.

The Archeologists also found the remains of Queen Hatshepsut’s Valley Temple, rock-cut tombs dating back to the Middle Kingdom (1938 B.C. — 1630 B.C.), burial shafts from the 17th dynasty, the tomb of Djehuti-Mes and part of the Assassif Ptolemaic Necropolis.

The rock-cut tombs had been previously robbed during the Ptolemaic period and later. Still, the Egyptian teams uncovered some artifacts such as pottery tables that were used to offer bread, wine and meat.

Inside the burial shafts dating back to 1580 B.C. — 1550 B.C., anthropoid wooden coffins were found, including one that belonged to a young child. It remained intact since its burial some 3,600 years ago.


Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?

Updated 08 January 2025
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Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?

  • Contenders for the presidency carry the baggage of past conflicts, failures in office, and problematic allegiances
  • Weakening of Hezbollah and the ouster of Syria’s Assad are likely to influence power dynamics in the Lebanese parliament 

DUBAI: Wracked by economic crisis and the recent conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to break its political paralysis and elect a new president.

There are many contenders for the coveted role, but whoever is chosen by members of the Lebanese Parliament to form the next government will have important implications for the nation’s recovery and trajectory.

If Thursday’s election is successful, it could end the debilitating power vacuum that has prevailed since Michel Aoun’s presidential term ended in October 2022, leaving governance in Lebanon in limbo.

Settling on a candidate is now more urgent than ever, as Lebanon faces mounting pressure to stabilize its political and economic landscape ahead of the impending expiration of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah.

None of Lebanon’s major parliamentary blocs have officially announced a presidential candidate, but several potential contenders have emerged.

Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces will require delicate maneuvering. (AFP)

One possible candidate is General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, who local media have tipped as the most likely winner.

Widely regarded as politically neutral, Aoun’s military experience and perceived impartiality could bring stability and credibility, both domestically and internationally.

His success would hinge on building a capable Cabinet with a comprehensive plan to stabilize the country’s governance, economic recovery and security, as well as lead postwar reconstruction efforts and the return of those displaced.

Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern territories in accordance with the UN Resolution 1701 would also require delicate maneuvering.

However, his candidacy faces legal hurdles due to a constitutional requirement that two years must pass between his military role and the presidency.

Another potential contender is Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces. As a vocal Hezbollah critic with significant support among some Christian communities, Geagea could appeal to anti-Hezbollah factions.

His extensive political experience and advocacy for reform could help him to prioritize state-building, which many Lebanese see as crucial for the country’s future. His anti-Hezbollah stance could also restructure Lebanon’s stance in regional conflicts and international relations.

However, his polarizing history from Lebanon’s civil war could prove to be a barrier to national unity, raising fears that his candidacy could deepen divisions in Lebanon’s already fragmented political system.

Suleiman Frangieh, head of the pro-Hezbollah Marada movement, is another possibility, but risks alienating Christian communities and international allies.

Hailing from a prominent political dynasty, Frangieh is the grandson of a former president and has himself held various governmental and parliamentary roles. However, being a close ally of Hezbollah and the former Assad regime in Syria makes him a polarizing figure.

Finally, Jihad Azour, a former finance minister and International Monetary Fund official, represents a technocratic option with broad political appeal.

Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to break its political paralysis. (AFP)

He enjoys support from key factions, including the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt, several Sunni MPs, influential Maronite religious figures and opposition groups.

Azour’s economic expertise could help to address Lebanon’s financial crisis, but some among the opposition view him as a continuation of past administrations.

Securing the presidency in Lebanon requires broad-based political consensus — a challenge in its deeply divided Parliament. Any major faction can block a nomination that does not align with its agenda.

Under Lebanon’s constitution, presidential elections require a two-thirds majority in the first round of parliamentary voting (86 out of 128 members) and a simple majority of 65 votes in subsequent rounds.

The Lebanese president’s powers, as defined by the constitution, reflect a blend of ceremonial and executive functions within a confessional system of governance that allocates political roles based on religious representation.

The president’s powers are limited by those of the prime minister, the council of ministers and Parliament, reflecting Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system established by the 1943 National Pact and reaffirmed by the 1989 Taif Agreement.

Lebanese presidents are traditionally drawn from the Maronite Christian community, as stipulated by the confessional system. This role is critical in maintaining the delicate political balance in the country.

Thursday’s election comes at a turbulent moment for Lebanon and its neighbors, which could impact the vote’s outcome.

A UNIFIL military vehicle conducts a patrol in the southern Lebanese village of Borj El Mlouk. (AFP)

Hezbollah has long dominated Lebanon’s political landscape, parliamentary dynamics and government composition. However, its devastating war with Israel, which began in October 2023 and ended with a fragile ceasefire in November 2024, gutted its leadership and depleted much of its public support.

Hezbollah’s failure to deter Israel’s war in Gaza or mount a sufficient defense against Israeli air and ground attacks in southern and eastern Lebanon has raised doubts about its remaining political influence in steering the selection of a presidential candidate.

The election also follows the sudden downfall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, toppled by armed opposition groups after a 13-year civil war. This shift has profoundly impacted Syria’s relationship with Hezbollah and other factions in Lebanon.

Syria’s influence on Lebanon historically included backing Maronite militias, interfering in political decisions, maintaining a 29-year military occupation and facilitating the flow of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah.

A destroyed mosque in the southern Lebanese village of Khiam. (AFP)

The change of power in Damascus adds uncertainty to Lebanon’s already fragile situation.

Regardless of these regional shifts, Lebanon’s next president will face the daunting task of guiding the country out of its economic mire while leading postwar reconstruction efforts.

Lebanon’s economic situation remains dire, with its financial collapse in 2019 described by the World Bank as one of the worst in modern history.

The Lebanese pound has lost more than 98 percent of its value against the US dollar on the black market, leading to hyperinflation and eroding the purchasing power of citizens.

Public services, including electricity, health care and water supply, have nearly collapsed, and unemployment has soared. More than 80 percent of the population now lives below the poverty line, according to the UN.

Efforts to secure international aid, including talks with the IMF, have stalled due to political gridlock and resistance to reforms. The new president will need regional and international standing to rally support for Lebanon’s recovery.

Whoever secures the presidency will face a formidable task in addressing Lebanon’s economic, political and social challenges. The alternative is continued paralysis, with devastating consequences for the country’s future.

 


Libya’s eastern parliament approves transitional justice law

Updated 08 January 2025
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Libya’s eastern parliament approves transitional justice law

  • The UN mission to Libya has repeatedly called for an inclusive, rights-based transitional justice and reconciliation process in the country

TRIPOLI: Libya’s eastern-based parliament has approved a national reconciliation and transitional justice law, three lawmakers said, a measure aimed at reunifying the oil-producing country after over a decade of factional conflict.

The House of Representatives spokesperson, Abdullah Belaihaq, said on the X platform that the legislation was passed on Tuesday by a majority of the session’s attendees in Libya’s largest second city Benghazi.

However, implementing the law could be challenging as Libya has been divided since a 2014 civil war that spawned two rival administrations vying for power in east and west following the NATO-backed uprising that toppled Muammar Qaddafi in 2011.

“I hope that it (the law) will be in effect all over the country and will not face any difficulty,” House member Abdulmenam Alorafi told Reuters by phone on Wednesday.

The UN mission to Libya has repeatedly called for an inclusive, rights-based transitional justice and reconciliation process in the North African country.

A political process to end years of institutional division and outright warfare has been stalled since an election scheduled for December 2021 collapsed amid disputes over the eligibility of the main candidates.

In Tripoli, there is the Government of National Unity under Prime Minister Abdulhamid Al-Dbeibah that was installed through a UN-backed process in 2021, but the parliament no longer recognizes its legitimacy. Dbeibah has vowed not to cede power to a new government without national elections.

There are two competing legislative bodies — the HoR that was elected in 2014 as the national parliament with a four-year mandate to oversee a political transition, and the High Council of State in Tripoli formed as part of a 2015 political agreement and drawn from a parliament first elected in 2012.

The Tripoli-based Presidential Council, which came to power with GNU, has been working on a reconciliation project and holding “a comprehensive conference” with the support of the UN and African Union. But it has been unable to bring all rival groups together because of their continuing differences.