LONDON: Strategic deals launched by powers including Saudi Arabia could reshape a region simmering with tensions, an Israeli journalist on a panel at the World Economic Forum said on Friday.
In the panel titled “Anticipating the Middle East in 2024,” experts and government officials discussed the turbulent regional situation, with the Gaza conflict, Iran, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and potential Saudi normalization with Israel high on the agenda.
“If the US wants to manage the (Gaza) conflict … it needs to embrace a pathway to two states,” said Jane Harman, chair of the US Commission on the National Defense Strategy.
“I think that without doing that, there will never be conflict management. And if that happens, the outlier is Iran.”
Mahmood Sariolghalam, professor of international relations at the National University of Iran and non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, said: “No Arab country will accept Iranian political or military dominance in the region. And I think that also includes Shiite Iraq.”
He added: “I think Iran is wasting its national resources in promoting this kind of foreign policy. And my estimate would be that it’s going to take at least 10 years, from my observations of the country, for Iran to realize that the real ingredient of power isn’t the military.
“Rather, it’s capital markets, platform companies and development of national infrastructure, and integrating with the rest of the region economically.”
Barak Ravid, an Israeli journalist with US news website Axios, said Saudi-Iranian convergence on regional matters could open a path to peace.
“Both Saudi Arabia and Iran have a lot of shared interests, especially, I think, Yemen,” he added. “Both countries wanted to sort of end it (bilateral tensions) or at least reach a long-term truce, as we’ve seen over the last year.
“And economically, both Iran and Saudi Arabia have a lot of interest to promote trade and things like that, and to try and at least cool down the tensions between the Saudi axis, if there is one, and what Iran calls the Axis of Resistance — and I think they managed to do it pretty well.
“I think the Saudis … don’t see the rapprochement with Iran as contradictory to their efforts to normalize relations with Israel. I think they both can live at the same time.”
Sariolghalam said Tehran is playing a balancing act through its network of militias — “sending messages” to its enemies but also preventing escalation in any of its strongholds.
“On Lebanon, I think it’s very clear that Iran isn’t interested in escalation, because this time around it isn’t going to be like 2006,” he added, referring to Israel’s last invasion of its northern neighbor.
“There’s a great chance that Hezbollah might be devastated through not only Israeli operations but also American involvement … And Lebanon is an extremely vulnerable country and society.”
Ravid agreed, saying Hezbollah, in its border operations in southern Lebanon that began in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, “realized that they don’t need to go on an all-out escalation against Israel in order to have a lot of impact.”
However, Hezbollah’s unwillingness to escalate strikes against Israel could change, Harman warned, saying the Lebanese government’s coalition structure makes managing the country’s security “very difficult.”
Ravid also warned that “it’s totally possible that the worst is still to come,” describing a potential Hezbollah-Israel war as making the Gaza conflict “look like a walk in the park.”
He said the US should be making “much more robust” efforts to contain the situation between the two sides, “because if the border between Lebanon and Israel doesn’t (calm) down within weeks, it can really blow up.”
Despite the region’s conflicts, economic progress presents a major opportunity this year, Sariolghalam said, predicting that Gulf Cooperation Council countries “will continue to thrive” throughout 2024.
“The region is going to have, in parallel, continuing conflict, and at the same time staggering economic progress,” he added.
Ravid warned that despite prospects for Saudi normalization with Israel, momentum in Tel Aviv is moving toward a one-state “reality” that will fail to serve as a long-term solution for Palestinians.
“We see the one-state reality in the West Bank right now,” he said. “When you have settlers and Palestinians, settlers have rights and Palestinians don’t — and this is where this thing is going.”
Saudi diplomacy could reshape region, Israeli journalist tells WEF
https://arab.news/rvmhs
Saudi diplomacy could reshape region, Israeli journalist tells WEF
- Barak Ravid: Potential Hezbollah-Israel war would make Gaza ‘look like a walk in the park’
- Iranian scholar: ‘No Arab country will accept Iranian political or military dominance in the region’
Turkish top officials make sudden trip to Damascus after Syria’s deal with Kurdish-led group
- Ankara intends to examine “how the agreement reached will be implemented and its reflections on the field,” local news agency DHA reported
- Turkiye considers the SDF and its military arm as terrorist organizations because of their links to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party
ISTANBUL: Turkiye’s top diplomat, defense minister and intelligence chief paid a sudden visit to Damascus on Thursday, days after Syria’s interim government reached a deal to integrate a US-backed Kurdish-led armed group into the country’s army.
The agreement to integrate the Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the Syrian government followed fierce clashes that erupted last week between government security forces and gunmen loyal to ousted leader Bashar Assad.
Monitoring groups said hundreds of civilians were killed in the violence in Syria’s coastal communities, primarily targeting members of the Alawite religious minority to which Assad belongs.
Ahmad Al-Sharaa, Syria’s interim president and a former rebel, met with Hakan Fidan, Turkiye’s foreign minister; Yasar Guler, defense minister, and Ibrahim Kalin, head of national intelligence. They were accompanied by Turkiye’s ambassador to Syria, Burhan Koroglu.
According to local news agency DHA, an official from the Turkish Defense Ministry, speaking on the customary condition of anonymity, said earlier Thursday that Ankara intends to examine “how the agreement reached will be implemented and its reflections on the field.”
The official added that Turkiye’s expectations on Syria have not changed.
“There is no change in our expectations for the termination of terrorist activities in Syria, the disarmament of terrorists and the expulsion of foreign terrorists from Syria,” the official said.
Turkiye designates the SDF and its military arm, People’s Protection Units, as terrorist organizations because of their links to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party.
As the Turkish delegation was flying unannounced to Damascus, Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan presented awards for “benevolence and kindness” to a former Syrian fighter pilot imprisoned for 43 years.
The ceremony, hosted by a foundation linked to Turkiye’s religious authority, honored Ragheed Al-Tatari. Erdogan praised Al-Tatari for his perseverance and gave him an award for his “benevolence.”
Al-Tatari was imprisoned under the rule of Syrian presidents Hafez Assad and later Bashar Assad. He had been detained since 1981. There are conflicting accounts for his imprisonment including refusing to bomb the city of Hama and failing to report a pilot desertion attempt.
Over four decades, Al-Tatari was moved among prisons notorious for housing political inmates, including Palmyra prison and Sednaya. His imprisonment, described by human rights groups as one of the longest in Syria for a political prisoner, ended in December when opposition forces freed him.
In a speech on stage, Erdogan lauded Al-Tatari, calling him “the brave Syrian pilot who listened to his conscience.”
UNRWA collapse would doom generation of Palestinian children: agency chief
- For more than seven decades, the UNRWA has provided essential aid, assistance and services like education and health care to Palestinian refugees
- Israel has opted to sever ties with UNRWA, banning it from operating on Israeli soil, arguing that UNRWA can be replaced by other UN agencies or NGOs
GENEVA: The UNRWA chief warned Thursday that if the embattled UN agency for Palestinian refugees were to collapse, it would deprive a generation of children of education, “sowing the seeds for more extremism.”
Pointing to a dire funding situation, Philippe Lazzarini warned of “the real risk of the agency collapsing and imploding.”
If that were to happen, he told AFP, “we would definitely sacrifice a generation of kids, who would be deprived from proper education.”
For more than seven decades, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees has provided essential aid, assistance and services like education and health care to Palestinian refugees.
Lazzarini has described the organization as “a lifeline” for nearly six million Palestinian refugees under its charge, across Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria.
But UNRWA has long been a lightning rod for harsh Israeli criticism, which ramped up dramatically after Hamas’s deadly attack in Israel on October 7, 2023 sparked the devastating war in Gaza.
Israel’s allegation early last year that some UNRWA staff took part in that attack spurred a string of nations to at least temporarily halt their backing for the already cash-strapped agency.
And earlier this year, Israel opted to sever ties with UNRWA, banning it from operating on Israeli soil.
While it can still operate in Gaza and the West Bank, it has been barred from contact with Israeli officials, making it difficult to coordinate the safe delivery of aid in the Palestinian territories.
Israel has argued that UNRWA can be replaced by other UN agencies or NGOs.
Lazzarini acknowledged earlier this week that if the only objective is to “bring trucks into Gaza” to address the humanitarian crisis caused by the war, others could step in.
But he stressed that UNRWA’s role was far broader.
“We are primarily providing government-like services,” he told AFP.
“So I don’t see any NGO or UN agencies all of a sudden stepping into the provision of public-like services.”
He cautioned that the loss of UNRWA’s education services could have particularly dire consequences.
“If you deprive 100,000 girls and boys in Gaza, for example, (of an) education, and if they have no future, and if their school is just despair and living in the rubble, I would say we are just sowing the seeds for more extremism,” he warned.
“I think this is a recipe for disaster.”
RSF shelling kills 5 children in Darfur
- Rapid Support Forces target civilians in Al-Fasher’s neighborhoods with artillery assault
PORT SUDAN: Shelling from Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces killed five children in the besieged North Darfur state capital of Al-Fasher, a medical source said on Thursday.
The attack on Wednesday was first reported by the Sudanese army, which has been locked in a war with the RSF since April of 2023.
“The militia targeted civilians in the city’s neighborhoods with artillery shelling, killing five children under the age of six and wounding four women,” the army said in a statement.
Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a medical source confirmed the toll.
Al-Fasher, under siege by the RSF since last May, is the only one of five state capitals in the vast Darfur region that is not under paramilitary control.
Fighting in the city has intensified in recent months, as the RSF tries to consolidate its hold on Darfur after army victories in central Sudan.
The army and allied militias have successfully repelled the RSF’s attacks on Al-Fasher.
However, the paramilitary forces have repeatedly shelled nearby famine-hit displacement camps in what local activists say is retaliation.
Since Sudan’s war began, it has claimed tens of thousands of lives, uprooted more than 12 million people, and created the world’s largest hunger and displacement crises.
In North Darfur alone, nearly 1.7 million people are displaced.
Around 2 million people face extreme food insecurity, and 320,000 are already suffering famine conditions, according to UN estimates.
Famine has hit three displacement camps around Al-Fasher — Zamzam, Abu Shouk and Al-Salam — and is expected to spread to five more areas, including Al-Fasher itself, by May.
On Wednesday, the African Union said the announcement of a parallel government in Sudan risked cleaving the country.
The RSF and its allies signed a “founding charter” of a parallel government in Nairobi last month.
The AU condemned the move and “warned that such action carries a huge risk of partitioning the country.”
The signatories to the document intend to create a “government of peace and unity” in rebel-controlled areas.
They have also pledged to “build a secular, democratic, decentralized state, based on freedom, equality and justice, without cultural, ethnic, religious or regional bias.”
In early March, the RSF and its allies again signed a “Transitional Constitution” in Nairobi.
The AU called on all its member states and the international community “not to recognize any government or parallel entity aimed at partitioning and governing part of the territory of the Republic of Sudan or its institutions.”
A statement said the organization “does not recognize the so-called government or parallel entity in the Republic of Sudan.”
On Tuesday, the EU also reiterated its commitment to Sudan’s “unity and territorial integrity.”
“Plans for parallel ‘government’ by the Rapid Support Forces risk the partition of the country and jeopardize the democratic aspirations of the Sudanese people for an inclusive Sudanese-owned process that leads to the restoration of civilian rule,” it said in a statement.
It follows a warning from the UN Security Council last week that expressed concern over the signing, adding it could worsen an already dire humanitarian situation.
Iraq repatriates more families from Daesh-linked Al-Hol camp
BAGHDAD: Iraq has repatriated more than 150 additional families from Al-Hol camp in the neighboring Syrian Arab Republic, an Iraqi security official said on Thursday, the latest such transfer from the camp where many have alleged terrorist links.
Kurdish-run camps and prisons in northeastern Syria still hold about 56,000 people from dozens of countries, many of them the family members of Daesh suspects, more than five years after the terrorists’ territorial defeat in Syria.
While many Western countries refuse to take back their nationals, Baghdad has taken the lead by accelerating repatriations and urging others to follow suit.
The latest group of 505 people is the sixth since the beginning of the year to be repatriated.
They left the camp on Wednesday, said Jihan Hanan, Al-Hol’s director.
The Iraqi security official confirmed that about “153 families arrived yesterday” in Iraq.
Daesh captured nearly a third of Iraq before local forces, backed by a US-led coalition, defeated them in 2017.
In Syria, US-backed Kurdish forces dislodged IS from the last of its Syrian-held territory in 2019.
Al-Hol is located in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Syria.
Iraq has intensified its efforts to bring back its nationals amid concerns about the security situation in Syria following the ouster of Bashar Assad in December, Iraqi National Security Adviser Qassem Al-Araji said last week.
Gaza rescuers exhume dozens of bodies from Al-Shifa Hospital
- The Palestinians medical facility is now largely in ruins following multiple Israeli assaults during the deadly war
GAZA CITY: Gaza’s civil defense agency reported that its crews had exhumed 48 bodies on Thursday from the courtyard of Al-Shifa Hospital, once Gaza’s biggest medical facility but now largely in ruins following multiple Israeli assaults during the war.
The agency has carried out similar work in the past to return remains to their families if they can be identified or, failing that, to remove them and give them a proper burial elsewhere.
Rescuers handed over 38 bodies after they were identified by their relatives, who took them to be reinterred in other cemeteries, agency spokesman Mahmoud Bassal said on Thursday.
“The other 10 exhumed bodies were handed over to the forensic department at the Ministry of Health for identification,” he said.
Bassal added that around 160 bodies remained buried within the hospital complex and that the process of exhumation would continue for several days.
AFP footage showed rescuers digging in parts of the courtyard and removing white bags reportedly containing human remains, which were then wrapped in blankets and carried away.
Gaza resident Mohammed Abu Asi, who identified the body of his brother, had come to the hospital to receive the remains.
“It’s like experiencing the war all over again. Recovering my brother’s body feels as though we are burying him today — the pain and the wound have reopened,” he said.
Another Gaza resident, Suha Al-Sharif, came to the site hoping to find her son’s body.
“I know what my son was wearing. That’s why I came. God willing, I will find him,” she said.
“I want to find him. I’m a mother — I am exhausted and do not know where my son is.”
Hospitals in Gaza, particularly Al-Shifa, have been repeatedly targeted by Israeli forces since the start of the war, following the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel.
Gaza health workers have previously discovered bodies at Al-Shifa Hospital.
Last year, the UN Security Council expressed “deep concern” after reports of mass graves containing hundreds of bodies in or near hospitals in Gaza.
The Oct. 7 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,218 people on the Israeli side, according to official Israeli figures.
During the attack, militants took 251 people hostage, 58 of whom remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Israel’s retaliatory military campaign has since killed at least 48,524 people, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The UN considers these figures reliable.
