Pakistan restores deterrence while Iran loses its reputation

After Iranian drone attacks on a Pakistani border village earlier this week, Pakistan has responded in kind by targeting hideouts of anti-Pakistan Baloch insurgents inside Iran, Islamabad said. Pakistan has also called back its ambassador and suspended all bilateral engagements, which puts the bilateral relationship squarely at its lowest nadir. 

Despite the ebb and flow of bilateral relations between Pakistan and Iran over the decades, the security situation across their shared border has remained a contentious issue between the two sides. From a Pakistani perspective the claim is that Baloch insurgents involved in attacks against Pakistani law enforcement agencies and civilians have safe havens on the Iranian side. From the Iranian perspective, it is alleged that Pakistan continues to provide sanctuaries to the anti-Iran Baloch militant groups. The arrest of an Indian intelligence operative, Kulbhushan Yadav while entering Pakistan from Iran further added a new dimension into an already precarious border security situation. 

A third point of contention between the two sides has been the Iranian recruitment of fighters from Pakistan to take part in the Syrian civil war. Grouped under the banner of the Zainebiyoun militia, this group was considered a veritable fifth column in development by Pakistan’s security agencies and a threat to national security. 

Despite these developments, Pakistan’s civil and military circles over the years have pursued a rather conciliatory approach toward Iran and prioritized engagement over conflict. This policy resulted in official trips by Pakistan’s army chief to Iran and the Iranian armed forces’ chief to Pakistan, with intelligence-sharing between the two sides as well as coordinating counter-terrorism efforts. 

This week’s saga has dealt a massive blow to the reputation of Iran within Pakistan and has in fact taken the relationship back to the troubled 1990’s. 

Umar Karim

Still, the Iranian side has constantly criticized Pakistan for not acting against the alleged hideouts of militant group Jaish ul-Adl and has on multiple occasions threatened to launch strikes inside Pakistan. Pakistani officials have also had credible intelligence regarding the presence of Baloch insurgents linked to Baloch Raji Ajoi Sangar (BRAS), an umbrella organization of various groups within Iran. Yet the Pakistani side has never publicly threatened to carry out any strong actions against these elements inside Iran. 

Against this backdrop, the Jan. 16 drone strikes spelled a significant change of course from Iran. This time Iranian officials openly acknowledged and owned these strikes while also belittling any implications upon Pakistan’s territorial sovereignty. As opposed to covert actions in the past or sharing intelligence with relevant authorities in Pakistan, Iran decided to execute their military strategy within Pakistan’s borders on the offense. The action was possibly based on the risky assumption that Pakistan would ignore a strike in such a remote part of the country and that the adventurism would go unpunished. 

On the Pakistani side, this development changed the status quo’s approach vis-à-vis Iran. The Iranian attacks happened as Pakistan’s interim Prime Minister was meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister; the Iranian special representative for Afghanistan was in Pakistan exchanging notes with Pakistani officials and as a Pakistani naval flotilla was conducting joint naval drills with the Iranian Navy. The occurrence of these attacks while so many formal and diplomatic channels of communication were active between the two countries was embarrassing for Pakistani officials and signalled the emptiness of these deliberations. 

Since the Iranian attack changed the rules of engagement, the existing understandings between the security agencies of both sides didn’t hold any longer. The attack also generated unanimous discourse within Pakistan that the nation must respond in a befitting manner. From a strategic point of view, restoring Pakistan’s deterrence become paramount even if Pakistan doesn’t want any conflict with Iran. It was to put an end to any such attempts in the future that Pakistan conducted strikes inside Iran. It served the dual purpose of sending a clear message to Iran while also affirming Pakistan’s resolve to act against insurgent groups directly responsible for attacks on law enforcement agencies and civilians inside Balochistan.

This week’s saga has dealt a massive blow to the reputation of Iran within Pakistan and has in fact taken the relationship back to the troubled 1990’s. The breach in the bilateral relationship will take time to heal, even if Pakistan’s retaliation ends this episode of immediate bilateral confrontation.

– Umar Karim is a doctoral researcher at the University of Birmingham. His research focuses on the evolution of Saudi Arabia’s strategic outlook, the Saudi-Iran tussle, conflict in Syria, and the geopolitics of Turkey, Iran and Pakistan. Twitter: @UmarKarim89