South Asia will vote in 2024, but does it mean change is coming?
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South Asia, one of the most populous regions of the world, is to witness a ‘polls’ galore this year. Bangladesh and Bhutan have already voted, Pakistan and India are scheduled to vote in the coming months. Sri Lanka has also indicated its intention to hold presidential and parliamentary elections this year. In the global framework of ‘democracy versus autocracy,’ as enunciated by President Biden, South Asia’s democratic credentials may be reinforced. But will this mean a better governed or more prosperous region? Or is it just a way to underscore democratic legitimacy?
Bhutan, the smallest and youngest democracy of the region, elected Tshering Tobgay as the Prime Minister for a second term after his People’s Democratic Party won nearly two-thirds of the seats this month. He had formerly served Bhutan from 2013 to 2018. During the election campaign, Tobgay had highlighted economic issues, in particular unemployment.
In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League won the elections held on Jan. 7 as Khaleeda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) decided not to contest, thus allowing Sheikh Hasina an easy win. Bangladesh has done well economically under Prime Minister Hasina. She is however widely criticized on issues like corruption and human rights.
The elections in Pakistan and India are not likely to produce any change in governance. The region may be fulfilling the formal requisites for democratic legitimacy but will remain trapped in disastrous policies at a time of great peril for the world.
- Salman Bashi
Pakistan is expected to hold a general election on Feb. 8 to elect parliamentarians for the National Assembly. The main contestants are Pakistan Muslim League-N, Pakistan People’s Party, Muttahida Qaumi Movement Pakistan, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl and the Jamaat-e-Islami. The leader of the Pakistan Tehreek e Insaf (PTI), Imran Khan, is under detention and the most popular party has not been allowed its election symbol. PTI candidates are therefore contesting as independents. In its lifetime, Pakistan has been governed by the military directly or through hybrid regimes. In the run up to the elections, the role of the military has become more evident with speculations abounding about the legitimacy of the polls.
In India, the dates for the election have not been announced yet. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading a coalition called the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to rival an Indian National Congress-led group of 28 parties known as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), led by Mallikarjun Kharge. The BJP is expected to win a third term. India, a flawed democracy, has been governed for nearly ten years now by Hindu-nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has expanded his power base by repressing minorities and restricting freedom of expression. In 2019, Modi amended the Indian Constitution to revoke Muslim-majority Kashmir’s semi autonomous status, cutting off communications and deploying troops to the region. He has also boosted ties with Israel’s right-wing government. The United States and other Western powers have ignored Modi’s democratic regression and his marginalization of minority populations, as they seek to cultivate India as their partner in the region against China.
The elections in Pakistan and India are not likely to produce any change in governance. The region may be fulfilling the formal requisites for democratic legitimacy but will remain trapped in disastrous policies at a time of great peril for the world. Pakistan may seek to normalize relations with India to match Washington’s expectations. The Middle East is again a hot spot. Iran is under western pressure and has carried out missile strikes against Pakistan. An unstable Pakistan with militancy again raising its head portends trouble. Modi’s India may advance its Hindutva agenda and opt for a more aggressive approach toward dominating the region. In the given environment, any hope for better times in South Asia in 2024 and beyond sounds overly optimistic.
- Salman Bashir is a Pakistani diplomat who served as Foreign Secretary of Pakistan and as High Commissioner of Pakistan to India. Twitter: @Salman_B_PK
