Navigating the diplomatic skies: Turkiye’s path back to F-35 consortium amid S-400 controversy

A photo of Air Force's F-35 jet (AFP)
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Updated 01 February 2024
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Navigating the diplomatic skies: Turkiye’s path back to F-35 consortium amid S-400 controversy

  • Green light from Washington coincided with Turkiye formally endorsing Sweden’s NATO membership and the US administration’s notification to Congress on the sale of F-16 fighter jets to the Turkish military

ANKARA: US Acting Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland has expressed Washington’s openness to engaging in F-35 talks with Turkiye pending resolution of concerns over Ankara’s acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system.

Attention is now focused on the potential conditions for Turkiye’s return to the F-35 consortium, where it has played a significant role as a joint producer in the past.

The green light from Washington coincided with Turkiye formally endorsing Sweden’s NATO membership and the US administration’s notification to Congress on the sale of F-16 fighter jets to the Turkish military.

“We were in the process of negotiating the Patriot sale, and while those negotiations were going on, Turkiye went in another direction … Frankly, if we could resolve this S-400 issue, which we would like to do, the US would be delighted to welcome Turkiye back into the F-35 family. But we have to settle this other issue first, and while we solve it, we must also ensure that Turkiye has a strong air defense,” Nuland told Turkiye’s CNN Turk on Monday.

Her two-day official visit to Ankara was aimed at “reinvigorating” damaged ties between the two NATO allies.

As Turkiye was a significant contributor to the new generation F-35 stealth fighter jets’ joint program and played a crucial role in the production line, the framework for Ankara’s potential return is subject to debate.

In 2019, Turkiye was expelled from the F-35 program due to its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system, with the White House asserting that the F-35s could not coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform.

During its involvement in the F-35 program, Turkiye contributed to the jet’s development financially, and its industry participated in producing about 900 parts for the stealth fighter.

Turkiye, as a member of the F-35 program, was projected to gain at least $12 billion by the end of the project in 2039, according to estimates by US aerospace industries company Lockheed Martin in 2013. However, it could not take delivery of two fighter jets for which it had made an advance payment of $1.4 billion.

“In theory, it is $12 billion. However, this program will last decades. How does anyone account for a program that will need spare parts and vendors for decades? It is tens of billions of dollars, which is truly mind-blowing,” Aaron Stein, expert at War on the Rocks, a platform for analysis and debate on strategy, defense and foreign affairs, told Arab News.

Prof. Mustafa Aydin, a professor of international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul, believes that the opportunity cost of Turkiye’s removal from the F-35 program is part of the intricate relationship between Turkiye-US and Turkiye-West.

“Turkiye acquired significant know-how and technological experience over the last two decades when it was involved in the fighter jet consortium, bringing industrial and economic advantages for the country itself, which in return fed back its efforts in developing its drone technology and designing its indigenous fighter jet,” he told Arab News.

Aydin said that buying jets carries substantial weight in terms of defense procurement.

“When you buy a jet, you buy at the same time a partnership along with several benefits regarding its maintenance, production and usage,” he said.

Aydin suggests that US diplomat Nuland’s remarks on the S-400s were about damage control in bilateral ties.

“I don’t expect any short-term solution for resolving that deadlock and receiving F-35s on Turkish soil. Turkiye can only rejoin the purchase and the production of F-35s if the deadlock over S-400s is resolved and the US CAATSA sanctions are lifted, which cannot happen in the short term due to the complexities attached,” he said.

“Keeping them in a depot on Turkish soil is risky in political terms. The most feasible solution was to deploy them to Incirlik air base in Turkish southern territories, with US inspections about the system’s status,” Aydin said.

On “compromise options” proposed during the Trump and Biden administrations to manage the damage caused by the S-400s on Turkiye-US relations, Stein suggests that if Ankara is ready to discuss compromises, the pressure would shift to the US, and conversations about Turkiye’s role in the program would be inevitable.

In the meantime, Aydin believes that it would be politically risky for the Turkish government to “sell” such an alternative solution to the Turkish people and convince them about the economic costs, as they may object, asserting that Turkiye is already working on developing its own fifth-generation fighter jet program, Kaan.

“After the green light given by the Congress, Ankara will begin engaging in negotiations with Lockheed Martin for the purchase details of the F-16 jets, which will also take some months in the most optimistic scenario,” he said.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency under the US Department of State released a statement about Turkiye-F16 aircraft acquisition and modernization on Jan 26: “The purchaser typically requests offsets. Any offset agreement will be defined in negotiations between the purchaser and the contractor,” hinting at potential details of the looming negotiations between the parties.

Stein does not believe that having the F-35s will change Turkiye’s status within NATO.

“The F-35 is a very capable jet, but it doesn’t replace the political will to do things NATO wants. And, for quite some time now, Ankara likes to march to a rhythm that is out of sync with most of its allies,” he said.

However, Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and chairman of the Istanbul-based think tank EDAM, thinks that acceptance to the F-35 program would make Turkiye more capable of participating in a number of NATO missions that would use the F-35 as a key platform.

“These missions may have self-characteristics, they may be planned for a number of tactical operations that NATO may need in the future. They may be limited to countries that would have those particular capabilities. Without fifth-generation stealth jets, Turkiye would not be able to take part in those missions and there would be capability gaps between Turkiye and some other NATO allies,” he told Arab News.

According to Ulgen, Turkiye can return to the F-35 program, but this would require solutions for the S-400 dilemma. For this to happen, both sides need to demonstrate flexibility to find a solution.

“There are basically two categories of solutions. Turkiye would either cease possession of the Russian system and send it to a third country, which is not feasible and not acceptable by Russia, while in the second solution the material could remain in Turkiye but with heavy monitoring conditions attached to its presence,” he said.

Ulgen thinks that Turkiye could return to the program as a buyer but also as a manufacturer, but there are a number of costs to be covered for this to happen.

“Turkiye was a very valued manufacturer and provided a range of critical inputs for the jets. Now in the meantime after Turkiye was pulled out from the program, the manufacturer had to find some alternative suppliers, which included some costs like shifting the production line to other manufacturers,” he said.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is to visit Turkiye on Feb. 12 to meet his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.


Emergency crews suspend search for flooding victims in central Texas

Updated 6 sec ago
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Emergency crews suspend search for flooding victims in central Texas

KERRVILLE: Emergency crews suspended their search for victims of catastrophic flooding in central Texas on Sunday morning amid new warnings that additional rain would again cause waterways to surge.

It was the first time a new round of severe weather has paused the search since the flooding earlier this month.

Ingram Fire Department officials ordered search crews to immediately evacuate the Guadalupe River corridor in Kerr County until further notice, warning the potential for a flash flood is high.

Search-and-rescue teams have been searching for missing victims of the July 4 weekend flooding that killed at least 129 people and left more than 170 missing.

As heavy rain fell Sunday, National Weather Service forecasters warned that the Guadalupe River could rise to nearly 15 feet by Sunday afternoon, about five feet above flood stage and enough to put the Highway 39 bridge near Hunt under water.

“Numerous secondary roads and bridges are flooded and very dangerous,” a weather service warning said.

The destructive, fast-moving waters rose 26 feet on the Guadalupe River in just 45 minutes before daybreak on July 4, washing away homes and vehicles. Ever since, searchers have used helicopters, boats and drones to look for victims and to rescue people stranded in trees and from camps isolated by washed-out roads.

More than 160 people still are believed to be missing, and at least 118 have died in the floods that laid waste to the Hill Country region of Texas. The riverbanks and hills of Kerr County are filled with vacation cabins, youth camps and campgrounds, including Camp Mystic, the century-old all-girls Christian summer camp.


French deal on New Caledonia ‘state’ hits early criticism

Updated 11 min 4 sec ago
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French deal on New Caledonia ‘state’ hits early criticism

NOUMEA: An accord between France and New Caledonia, creating a state within a state and hailed by President Emmanuel Macron as “historic,” hit immediate fierce criticism in the Pacific territory on Sunday.

Following deadly protests that rocked New Caledonia last year, Macron called for talks to break a deadlock between forces loyal to France and those seeking independence.

After 10 days of negotiations near Paris, French officials and a delegation of 18 New Caledonian pro-independence and anti-independence representatives reached agreement on Saturday to create a “State of New Caledonia” within the French Republic.

The text, which still requires French parliamentary approval and to pass a referendum in the territory, provides for the creation of a Caledonian nationality and the sharing of powers. But it won few supporters in the archipelago.

The signatories of the draft agreement admitted during a meeting with Macron on Saturday evening that they were struggling to win over opponents of the deal that will be submitted to a referendum in February 2026.

Joel Kasarerhou, president of civil society group Construire Autrement, called the agreement “stillborn,” describing it as a “poor” replica of previous agreements and “lacking ambition and vision.”

Kasarerhou said the youth at the heart of the May 2024 uprising had been “forgotten or barely mentioned.” He feared another “May 13” — the date the 2024 riots began.

Home to around 270,000 people and located nearly 17,000 kilometers from Paris, New Caledonia is one of several overseas territories that remain an integral part of France.

It has been ruled from Paris since the 1800s, but many indigenous Kanaks resent France’s power over the islands and want more autonomy or independence.


France’s Macron announces plan to accelerate military spending

Updated 11 min 34 sec ago
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France’s Macron announces plan to accelerate military spending

  • The French president pledged to double the military budget by 2027 in response to a complex geopolitical moment

PARIS: President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday announced a plan to push forward France’s defense spending, pledging to double the military budget by 2027 — three years earlier than originally planned — in response to a complex geopolitical moment.
France had aimed to double its defense budget from 2017 levels by 2030. However, Macron pledged to reach the target by 2027. A military budget that stood at 32 billion euros ($37.40 billion) in 2017 will rise to 64 billion euros by 2027, with an additional 3.5 billion euros allocated for next year and another 3 billion euros in 2027.
He said the accelerated spending, which comes as France is struggling to make 40 billion euros in savings in its 2026 budget, would be paid for by increased economic activity.
“Our military independence is inseparable from our financial independence,” he said. “This will be financed through more activity and more production.”
He said Prime Minister Francois Bayrou would provide more details in an address on his plans for the 2026 budget on Tuesday. Bayrou is facing an uphill battle to steer billions of euros worth of savings through a bitterly divided parliament, as France strives to lower its budget deficit to keep EU bean-counters and foreign investors at bay.


Nigeria’s former President Muhammadu Buhari dies in London

Former Nigerian president Muhammadu Buhari has died. (File/AFP)
Updated 13 July 2025
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Nigeria’s former President Muhammadu Buhari dies in London

  • Buhari, 82, who first led the country as a military ruler after a coup in the 1980s, earned a devoted following for his brand of anti-corruption conviction politics

LAGOS: Nigeria’s former President Muhammadu Buhari, who led Africa’s most populous country from 2015-23 and was the first Nigerian president to oust an incumbent through the ballot box, died in London on Sunday, a presidential spokesperson said.
“President Buhari died today in London at about 4:30 p.m. (1530 GMT), following a prolonged illness,” President Bola Tinubu’s spokesperson said in a post on X.
Buhari, 82, who first led the country as a military ruler after a coup in the 1980s, earned a devoted following for his brand of anti-corruption conviction politics.
He referred to himself as a “converted democrat” and swapped his military uniform for kaftans and prayer caps.
“I belong to everybody and I belong to nobody,” was a constant refrain Buhari told supporters and critics alike.
Buhari defeated Goodluck Jonathan in 2015 in what was judged to be Nigeria’s fairest election to date. Many hoped the retired major general would crack down on armed groups, just as he had as the country’s military head of state.
Instead, violence that had mostly been confined to the northeast spread. That left swathes of Nigeria outside the control of its stretched security forces as gunmen in the northwest, armed separatists and gangs in the southeast roamed unchecked.
Much of his appeal lay in the anti-corruption ethos that was a central plank of his agenda both as a military and civilian ruler. He said endemic corruption in Nigeria’s political culture was holding people back.
“Baba Go Slow”
But Buhari quickly disappointed after his 2015 win.
He took six months to name his cabinet. During that time, the oil-dependent economy was hobbled by low crude prices, prompting people to call him “Baba Go Slow.”
His second victory in 2019 came despite his first term being blighted by Nigeria’s first recession in a generation, militant attacks on oilfields, and repeated hospital stays.
Born on December 17, 1942, in Daura in the northwestern state of Katsina state, Buhari enrolled in the army at 19. He would eventually rise to the rank of major-general.
He seized power in 1983 as a military ruler, promising to revitalize a mismanaged country. Buhari took a tough line on everything from the conditions sought by the International Monetary Fund to unruliness in bus queues.
In 1984, his administration attempted to kidnap a former minister and vocal critic living in Britain. The plot failed when London airport officials opened the crate containing the abducted politician.
His first stint in power was short-lived. He was removed after only 18 months by another military officer, Ibrahim Babangida.
Buhari spent much of the following 30 years in fringe political parties and trying to run for president until his eventual victory over Jonathan in 2015.


’Inexcusable’ failures led to Trump assassination attempt: Senate report

Updated 13 July 2025
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’Inexcusable’ failures led to Trump assassination attempt: Senate report

  • A congressional inquiry accused the Secret Service of ‘a cascade of preventable failures that nearly cost President Trump his life’
  • Six unidentified Secret Service staff have been disciplined with punishments range from 10 to 42 days’ suspension without pay

WASHINGTON: A congressional inquiry into the attempt to assassinate US President Donald Trump at a campaign rally a year ago on Sunday lamented “inexcusable” failures in the Secret Service’s operations and response, and called for more serious disciplinary action.
On July 13, 2024, a gunman shot the then-Republican presidential candidate during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, grazing his ear.
One bystander was killed and two other people in addition to Trump were wounded before a government sniper killed the gunman, 20-year-old Thomas Crooks.
“What happened was inexcusable and the consequences imposed for the failures so far do not reflect the severity of the situation,” said the report released by the US Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.
The dramatic incident energized Trump’s bid to return to the White House, with his campaign using a photo of him bloodied and pumping his fist as he was hurried offstage to woo voters.
The report did not shed new light on the gunman’s motive, which still remains a mystery, but accused the Secret Service of “a cascade of preventable failures that nearly cost President Trump his life.”
“The United States Secret Service failed to act on credible intelligence, failed to coordinate with local law enforcement,” said the committee’s Republican chairman Rand Paul.
“Despite those failures, no one has been fired,” he added.
“It was a complete breakdown of security at every level-fueled by bureaucratic indifference, a lack of clear protocols, and a shocking refusal to act on direct threats.
“We must hold individuals accountable and ensure reforms are fully implemented so this never happens again.”
Staff disciplined
The Secret Service cited communication, technical and human errors and said reforms were underway, including on coordination between different law enforcement bodies and establishment of a division dedicated to aerial surveillance.
Six unidentified staff have been disciplined, according to the agency. The punishments range from 10 to 42 days’ suspension without pay, and all six were put into restricted or non-operational positions.
Reflecting on the assassination attempt earlier this week, Trump said “mistakes were made” but that he was satisfied with the investigation.
In an interview with his daughter-in-law on Fox News’ “My View with Lara Trump,” Trump said the sniper “was able to get him from a long distance with one shot. If he didn’t do that, you would have had an even worse situation.”
“It was unforgettable,” Trump said of the events.
“I didn’t know exactly what was going on. I got whacked. There’s no question about that. And fortunately, I got down quickly. People were screaming.”