MANILA, 4 March 2004 — Sen. Panfilo Lacson, the other opposition presidential candidates, yesterday remained hopeful for a unified opposition despite the Supreme Court ruling on actor Fernando Poe Jr.’s citizenship.

The high court’s verdict, which said Poe is eligible to run for the presidency, only meant that the opposition would really have to part ways, said Lacson.

“He remains a candidate and I remain a candidate. It is inevitable that we separate ways,” Lacson said, adding: “I wish him luck.”

Still, Lacson said he would push through with negotiations with Poe April in hopes of unifying their forces.

“I hope we will still consider each other as political allies,” Lacson said.

Lacson, chief of the Philippine National Police during the short-lived administration of jailed ex-President Joseph Estrada, is running under a rebel wing of the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino (LDP) led by the party’s erstwhile secretary-general, Makati Rep. Agapito Aquino.

Lacson has no vice presidential running mate. His lone senatorial candidate is Rep. Carlos Padilla of Nueva Viscaya.

Sen. Edgardo Angara, the chairman of LDP, has refused to recognize Lacson’s use of the party for his candidacy. Angara and his camp forged an alliance with two other opposition groups to form the KNP and chose the immensely popular Poe as their presidential standard-bearer.

Poe then chose Sen. Loren Legarda Leviste, a popular broadcast journalist, as his runningmate.

Survey

Lacson was a distant fourth in the latest survey released by the Social Weather Stations (SWS), which showed Poe and incumbent President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo neck and neck.

Support for Poe dropped to a level about even with Arroyo ahead of the May 10 election, said the SWS poll conducted Feb. 17-25. A total of 1,200 registered voters showed Arroyo garnering 31.8 percent support against Poe’s 30.5 percent, with the difference falling within the poll’s margin of error of three percentage points.

“The national race for the presidency is statistically tied,” SWS head Mahar Mangahas said.

The poll showed former Education Secretary Raul Roco in third place with 17.9 percent, followed by opposition Sen. Panfilo Lacson with 11.4 percent, Christian evangelist Eddie Villanueva with 1.8 percent and businessman Eddie Gil with no support at all. The remaining 6.6 percent of respondents were undecided.

In the previous month’s SWS survey, Poe had a strong lead with 37.5 percent against Arroyo’s 28.7 percent.

The new survey showed Arroyo, a 56-year-old US-educated economist, is a favorite among the middle and upper classes.

But Poe received 40 percent support among the poor — the approximately 30 percent of the 82 million population who live on or below $1 a day — while Arroyo received 29 percent.

Arroyo’s running mate, Sen. Noli de Castro, is leading the race for vice president with 57 percent support, while his closest rival, Poe running mate Sen. Loren Legarda, polled 29 percent.

Arroyo’s Strengths

Malaca?ang Palace said the machinery of an incumbent president and Poe’s refusal to join a presidential debate allowed Arroyo to overtake Poe.

Mike Defensor, campaign spokesman for the president, attributed Arroyo’s gains to massive support by local officials and grassroots organizations and her leadership qualities.

Defensor cited another reason. “Secondly, we feel that in the case of Mr. Poe this (survey) is a reflection of the public to his statement to not join the (presidential) debate,” he said.

Poe’s refusal to join a public debate with Arroyo may have affected his support among rich and middle-class voters, according to political strategist Reli German, who helped plot the landslide election victory in 1998 of movie star presidential candidate, Joseph Estrada, a friend of Poe’s.

“What is a significant and a major concern to handlers of (Poe) is his consistent drop throughout this period,” German said.

“On the other hand (Arroyo) has been steadily moving up in all areas practically,” German noted at a public forum on the SWS survey results.

“Perhaps the stress of financial support not coming in — pending the resolution of the citizenship issue — is a major issue. He (Poe) can’t move around that much,” German said. “I certainly get the feeling that the president’s handlers are playing chess and FPJ’s handlers are playing checkers,” he added.

“Both camps are competitive toward the election period. However, it is too early for GMA (the president) to celebrate,” Gatmaitan said in a phone interview.

Defensor said the president’s rating would pick up by 3 to 5 percent more in the coming weeks when the local machinery started to work.

Arroyo will easily win because she has the support of local officials and candidates who deliver the votes, according to Defensor.

He also reminded that Poe’s KNP party had candidates in only 60 percent of the country.

Political risk consultant Jose Leviste of Polistrat International, one of SWS poll’s sponsors, said Arroyo was running a better campaign than Poe.

Too Early to Celebrate

Analysts said, however, that it was too early for President Arroyo to celebrate.

Political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan said the results of the survey indicated a very tight presidential race. “It’s anybody’s ball game,” said Gatmaitan, president of the Political Economic Applied Research Foundation.

He noted that Arroyo had big support in the Visayas region but Poe led in Metro Manila. He said the results showed that it was touch and go for Mindanao.

“Nobody has won (the presidency) by winning in the Visayas. Where Metro Manila goes, the country goes,” he said.

SWS chief Mahar Mangahas said the Poe disqualification case was “the main election-related news event” of the past month. “I feel certain that it must be related somehow to these particular matters going on.”

Gatmaitan said Arroyo’s lead in the Visayas could still narrow when the campaign period for local elections starts on March 25. “GMA has the advantage of resources but she must be careful of losing Luzon,” Gatmaitan said.

He said the president must work hard in Metro Manila to improve her standing.

The survey results showed 32 percent of voters in Metro Manila favored Poe, while 24 percent chose Arroyo.