LONDON: Negotiations on a new government in Pakistan have allayed immediate fears of instability in the nuclear-armed nation following inconclusive elections last week, but the risk of a full-scale economic crisis remains.
A $3 billion program from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) runs out next month and securing a new and much bigger one is widely seen as the priority for the new administration.
WHO COULD THE IMF NEGOTIATE WITH?
The largest party, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), secured support on Tuesday from the second biggest, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), and is trying to persuade it to form a majority coalition.
The caretaker government in place since August is implementing the IMF loan program which helped to avert a sovereign debt default when it was approved in July. Recent legislation allows it to make decisions on economic matters in the South Asian country as well as overseeing the election. It did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the prospects for a new IMF deal.
HOW BAD IS THE ECONOMIC SITUATION?
Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stand at roughly $8 billion which barely covers two months of essential imports although it is an improvement from the $3.1 billion they were down to just over a year ago.
A $1 billion bond payment in two months’ time will cut them further although the country is getting a $700 mln injection of already-approved IMF money too.
“It is imperative (to get into another IMF program), given that Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves are abysmally low compared to its large impending external debt repayment needs. Former deputy central bank governor Murtaza Syed said. “There is no alternative.”
HOW MUCH DEBT IS THERE?
Pakistan’s debt-to-GDP ratio is already above 70 percent and the IMF and credit ratings agencies estimate that the interest payments on its debt will soak up 50 percent and 60 percent of the government’s revenues this year. That is the worst ratio of any sizable economy in the world.
Analyst firm Tellimer says the country’s problem is primarily domestic debt, which comprises around 60 percent of its debt stock and 85 percent of its interest burden. Pakistan’s external debt stock — denominated largely in dollars — is also heavily skewed toward bilateral and multilateral creditors, which comprise roughly 85 percent of the total.
Bonded debt comprises just 8 percent of the external debt stock and 3.4 percent of its total public debt. That is dwarfed by the near 13 percent of total debt that it owes to China which has lent to Pakistan money over the years for infrastructure projects and for other types of spending.
HOW IS IT AFFECTING THE POPULATION?
A combination of tax and gas tariff hikes and a steep fall in the rupee currency have pushed inflation up to nearly 30 percent year-on-year. It is expected to come down later in the year but will stay well above the central bank’s 5-7 percent target for some time, economists forecast.
The rupee is expected to fall further too. For context, the implied exchange rate underlying the latest IMF staff report is 305 rupee to the dollar for this fiscal year and 331 per dollar in FY 24/25, levels which are roughly 8 percent and 15 percent weaker than the current exchange rate.
How bad is Pakistan’s debt crisis and can the IMF save it?
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How bad is Pakistan’s debt crisis and can the IMF save it?
- Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves stand at roughly $8 billion which barely covers two months of essential imports
- Country’s problem is primarily domestic debt, which comprises around 60 percent of its debt stock and 85 percent of its interest burden
Senior political leader shot dead amid escalating militancy in Pakistan’s northwest
- Mashaal Azad, a PPP leader in Lakki Marwat, was ambushed while going for Friday prayers
- Attack occurred the day Pakistan’s army chief was in Peshawar to discuss security situation
PESHAWAR: Amid a string of deadly attacks that have claimed the lives of dozens of civilians and security officials in Pakistan’s northwest, unidentified gunmen on Friday shot dead a senior leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) in the volatile Lakki Marwat district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, police said.
The restive district, a hotspot of militant activity, witnessed unprecedented protests in September when police officers, joined by civil society members and tribal elders, staged sit-ins and blocked the Indus Highway.
The demonstrations followed a spate of militant attacks that killed several policemen, prompting demands for enhanced security measures and greater autonomy for the law enforcement agency in counterterrorism operations.
Speaking to Arab News over the phone, the police spokesperson in the district, Shahid Marwat, said the slain PPP leader Mashaal Azad was heading toward Sarai Gambila, a rundown locality on the outskirts of the district’s center, for Friday prayers when he was ambushed by gunmen.
“Mashaal Azad was killed by unidentified bike riders on the Canal Road near Kajoori Hotel within the limits of Sarai Gambila police station,” Marwat said.
The incident occurred on the day Pakistan’s army chief General Asim Munir was visiting Peshawar, the provincial capital of KP, where he vowed action against militants and reiterated the army’s firm resolve to dismantle hostile militant networks.
The killing also follows a gun attack on a convoy carrying members of the minority Shiite community in the Kurram tribal district a day earlier, leaving more than 40 people dead.
Earlier this week, on Tuesday, 10 Pakistan army soldiers and two members of the paramilitary Frontier Constabulary were killed when militants attacked a checkpost in the northwestern Bannu district.
Rabnawaz Marwat, a tribal elder in Lakki Marwat, said the late PPP leader was a long-time and senior party figure who had been a strong voice against militancy in the region.
“Late Azad had served as a member of the provincial council of PPP,” he informed. “He had also served as a student leader of PPP in Lakki Marwat. In addition, he was an active tribal elder who played a leading role in dispute resolution in the region.”
According to the police spokesperson, a report of the incident has been lodged against unidentified persons, and further investigations will be initiated.
“It is mentioned in the report that late Azad had no personal enmity with anyone in the area,” he said. “It seems to be an act of targeted attack by terrorists.”
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting of civil and military leaders to review the country’s security situation, during which it was agreed to take action against those involved in militant violence.
Pakistan’s first hand-drawn animated film ‘The Glassworker’ makes Oscars eligibility list
- The film was released in July, with its director calling it the result of ‘passion and perseverance’
- Selection committee in the country says it has broken ‘new ground for animation’ in Pakistan
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s first hand-drawn animated film, “The Glassworker,” has been named on the list of eligible films for the 97th Academy Awards in both the Animated Feature Film and International Feature Film categories, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced this week.
Directed by young Pakistani animator Usman Riaz, the film was released in July and features 1,477 cuts and 2,500 individual drawings. The coming-of-age tale follows Vincent, a young apprentice at his father’s glass workshop, and Alliz, a talented violinist and the daughter of a military colonel.
Against the backdrop of a looming war, their relationships with their parents and each other are tested.
“Thirty-one features are eligible for consideration in the Animated Feature Film category for the 97th Academy Awards,” the Academy said on its website, with “The Glassworker” among them.
“Films submitted in the Animated Feature Film category may also qualify for Academy Awards in other categories, including Best Picture,” it added. “Animated features that have been submitted in the International Feature Film category as their country’s official selection are also eligible in the category.”
Five films from the list will be shortlisted for nominations in the Animated Feature Film category, with the ultimate winner announced at the Oscars ceremony scheduled for March 3, 2025.
A team of 250 national and international cast and crew members worked on the film, which was produced by Riaz’s Karachi-based Mano Animation Studios.
The film became Pakistan’s first-ever animated feature to be nominated for Oscars consideration in September.
“Usman and Mano’s work has demonstrated exceptional storytelling and artistry while breaking new ground for animation in Pakistan,” the Academy Selection Committee of Pakistan said earlier while lauding the project. “This achievement will be remembered in our cinematic history.”
Riaz described his effort as a result of “a decade of passion and perseverance” when the film was nominated for Oscars from Pakistan.
“I am deeply humbled by the selection and hope this story resonates with audiences everywhere, showcasing the talent and creativity Pakistan has to offer,” he added.
Pakistan seal final spot in Under-19 cricket tri-series with dominant win over UAE
- Pakistan posted their highest total of the tournament, amassing 314 for five in 50 overs
- UAE’s innings ended at 123 in 37 overs, setting the stage for Pakistan-Afghanistan clash
ISLAMABAD: Half-centuries by Farhan Yousuf, Haroon Arshad, Shahzaib Khan and Usman Khan powered Pakistan’s Under-19 cricket team to a commanding 191-run victory over the United Arab Emirates in the fifth match of the U19 tri-series at the ICC Cricket Academy Ground in Dubai on Friday.
The victory secured Pakistan’s place in the final, where they will face Afghanistan U19 on Tuesday, November 26, at the same venue.
This was Pakistan’s second win over UAE in the tournament, having defeated them by 10 wickets in the opening match.
“Pakistan U19 earn an emphatic 191-run win over UAE U19,” the Pakistan Cricket Board announced in a social media post. “They will play the tri-series final on Tuesday.”
The Pakistan team edged Afghanistan by 13 runs in their previous encounter but suffered a loss to them earlier in the series.
After electing to bat, Pakistan posted their highest total of the tournament, amassing 314 for five in 50 overs.
Left-handed openers Shahzaib Khan (71 off 84) and Usman Khan (50 off 64) provided a solid foundation with a 96-run opening stand. Farhan Yousuf (63 off 50) and Haroon Arshad (54 off 34) then built on the momentum with a brisk 75-run partnership for the fourth wicket, while Faham-ul-Haq contributed a steady 37 off 48. For UAE, Noorullah Ayubi and Uddish Suri picked up two wickets each.
Chasing 315, UAE struggled from the outset, collapsing to 52 for five within 16 overs.
Ayaan Misbah (17 off 46) and Uddish Suri (32 not out) attempted to stabilize the innings with a 21-run stand for the sixth wicket, but Misbah fell to Umar Zaib in the 26th over.
UAE’s innings ended at 123 in 37 overs, with Umar Zaib taking four for 51 and Naveed Ahmed Khan claiming three wickets.
The final group match of the series will be played between Afghanistan and UAE on Sunday, November 24.
Pakistan 'will break any hand' threatening Saudi relations — PM Sharif
- Statement comes after Imran Khan’s wife released a video message widely viewed as critical of the Kingdom
- Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are close allies, with nearly 3 million Pakistanis living and working in the Kingdon
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Friday vowed strict action against anyone attempting to undermine Pakistan’s close relations with Saudi Arabia, declaring that his government would “break any hand” threatening ties between the two nations.
Sharif’s statement appeared to reference recent remarks by Imran Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi, who in a rare public message on Thursday assured state institutions that her jailed husband would not seek revenge against political opponents if he returned to power.
She also made remarks in her video message that were widely viewed as implying that the Saudi government had opposed Khan when he was prime minister from 2018-22.
“Such venom-spitting is an unforgivable crime,” Sharif said while addressing a ceremony on Friday. “I, as the prime minister of Pakistan, want to announce that the nation will break any hand trying to undermine the Pakistan-Saudi friendship.”
“This is not a joke,” he continued. “The allegation is beyond understanding. The biggest national interest is being slaughtered to serve the short-term political interest.”
He criticized the former first lady, whose husband’s PTI party is currently in opposition, saying that the Kingdom had never demanded anything in return from Pakistan for extending economic and diplomatic support but instead always “opened its doors.”
“I think there can be no greater enmity against Pakistan than this [issuing such comments],” he said, adding that Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was sacrificing the country’s interest for its political interests.
Sharif said “no one will be allowed to play” with Pakistan’s interests when it concerned “brotherly allies” such as Saudi Arabia.
Earlier, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif also addressed the issue in a press conference, highlighting that over 2.8 million Pakistanis were working in the Kingdom, sending billions of dollars in remittances back to their country every year.
“Our cordial and friendly relationship with Saudi Arabia should not be affected due to someone’s political gains,” he said. “Such a controversial statement is an effort to save PTI’s sinking ship.”
Khan was ousted from the prime minister’s office in a parliamentary vote of no-confidence in 2022, alleging that he was removed by his political rivals and the all-powerful military at the behest of the United States. All three parties deny the accusation.
The cricketer-turned-politician has been in prison since August last year, facing a slew of legal challenges. He denies any wrongdoing, claiming that all cases against him are politically motivated to keep him in jail.
His PTI party is set to kick off a “long march” to stage a protest in Islamabad on Nov. 24, aiming to pressure the government into releasing Khan from prison. Authorities have refused to grant permission to hold the gathering and imposed a ban on public assembly in the capital for two months.
Pakistani stocks break psychological 99,000 barrier on optimism over rates, reserves
- An analyst attributes the intraday rally to broad-based gains across most economic sectors
- The stock market has remained bullish since the government slashed policy rate in November
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Friday breached a major psychological barrier, surging past 99,000 points during intra-day trading before settling at 97,798.23, as analysts attributed the rally to investor optimism driven by falling lending rates and higher foreign exchange reserves.
The benchmark KSE-100 index climbed 2,057.40 points by 11:10 am, reaching 99,385.79 points from the previous close. However, the index closed at 97,798.23, marking an increase of 469.84 points or 0.48 percent.
Analyst Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corporation said bank levies on large deposits, surging global oil prices, and rupee stability were fueling investor optimism.
“Stocks remained bullish, led by scrips across the board, as investors weighed falling lending rates and the imposition of bank levies on large deposits following a drop in government bond yields,” he told Arab News. “Surging global crude oil prices, rupee stability, and higher forex reserves played a catalytic role in the record surge at the PSX.”
Last month, Pakistan’s external current account recorded a surplus of $349 million, marking the third consecutive month of surplus and the highest in this period. The current account reflects a nation’s transactions with the world, encompassing net trade in goods and services, net earnings on cross-border investments and net transfer payments.
A surplus indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, thereby strengthening its foreign exchange reserves.
A bullish trend has been observed in the stock market since Pakistan’s central bank cut its key policy rate by 250 basis points, bringing it to 15 percent earlier this month. Economic indicators have also steadily improved since securing a 37-month, $7 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in September.
In the past, the country faced a prolonged economic crisis that drained its foreign exchange reserves and saw its currency weaken amid double-digit inflation. Last year, Pakistan narrowly avoided a sovereign default by clinching a last-minute $3 billion IMF bailout deal.
